What United’s win means for Chelsea and Newcastle in Europe

Manchester United had more than one reason to celebrate in the very final game of the English domestic calendar for the 2023/24 season.

An epic 2-1 win over Premier League champions Manchester City – who had just secured an unprecedented fourth consecutive title – meant more than just a morale-boosting derby cup final victory,

It was United’s last chance to qualify for a European spot following an eighth-place finish in the league, and the Red Devils secured their place in the Europa League group stages despite being massive underdogs before kick-off.

They quickly proved their doubters wrong in an exhilarating first half that saw United do damage early and control the flow of the game despite limited territory and ball possession. A mistake from Josko Gvardiol gifted Erik Ten Hag’s men the opener as Stefan Ortega rushed out of his goal to claim an awkward aerial ball and Gvardiol headed the ball over the goalkeeper’s head, allowing Alejandro Garnacho to score.

City was shell-shocked and failed to mount a reaction as Kobbie Mainoo then added a second before half-time to well and truly put the game in their favour. Jeremy Doku pulled a goal back late on but City couldn’t muster a late comeback.

This represents City’s first defeat since a 1-0 reverse at Aston Villa in December and they will meet again for the Community Shield in August. Yet, this was very much United’s day as they took the automatic spot in the Europa League next season.

The winners of the FA Cup are handed a place in Europe’s second-tier competition despite finishing eighth and the knock-on effect of that is Chelsea, who finished sixth in the Premier League, will now play in the UEFA Conference League and seventh-placed Newcastle miss out completely on European football despite finishing above United on goals difference.

Blues & Magpies nightmare

Furthermore, Chelsea could now rack up an incredible 74 games next season as a result of this outcome. The Blues’ Conference League campaign kicks off on August 22 with the playoff round where they should be pooled into a league-format group stage.

Changes have been made to the Europa League and Conference League formats with 36 teams in each, teams will have six matches against six different opponents in the league phase between September and December.

The knockout phase of the competitions will take place through the second half of the season and culminate at the end of the campaign.

Chelsea faces a gruelling run of fixtures ahead should they go all the way to the final which takes place three days after the top-flight finale on May 28. With the Club World Cup also slated to kick off on June 15, the Blues could potentially remain in the competition till the final on July 13.

Meanwhile, UEFA’s financial sustainability regulations are now considerably more restrictive than the Premier League’s, with £68.5m over the previous two years as the key loss threshold for Chelsea should they compete in Europe, rather than £105m over the previous three as is the case in England.

It essentially means that Todd Boehly & Clearlake Capital’s spending in the summer of 2023 is more expensive by competing in Europe, as UEFA’s decision to cap player amortization at a maximum of five years could now be their undoing.

Effectively, what Manchester United have done by winning the FA Cup is ensure that Chelsea will have to play plenty of games amidst long-distance traveling and selling the majority of their academy products including Conor Gallagher, Trevoh Chalobah, Armando Broja and Ian Maatsen, just so that they can play in the Europa Conference League next season.

While United also avoided missing out on European football for the first time since the 2014/15 season, they delivered a brutal blow for Newcastle who only returned to the Champions League action this season for the first time in two decades.

A dip in form due to injuries to key players threatened to derail their chances but they put themselves in a place to book back-to-back European campaigns after finishing the season with six wins in their final 10 league matches to finish above Man United on goal difference.

The lack of continental action next term also means the Magpies are under even more financial pressure and the need to comply with profit and sustainability rules means they must take drastic measures. This means that parting with star players such as Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes is now a realistic possibility. However, this will not stop Newcastle United tickets from selling fast.

The Brazil international has a £100million release clause in his contract and a triple-figure sale would gift the Geordies a major financial boost.

Chaotic United

On the other hand, the mastermind behind this epic turn of events for Man United finds his own position under intense scrutiny as the club’s hierarchy ponders a managerial change. Reports emerged on the eve of the FA Cup final suggesting that Ten Hag will be sacked regardless of the result against Manchester City at Wembley.

What followed was certainly United’s best performance of their FA Cup campaign as defensive frailties and general issues made for chaotic ties.

They lost a two-goal lead before beating League Two Newport County in the fourth round, secured a dramatic 4-3 win against Liverpool in the quarter-final with Amad Diallo’s goal in the dying embers of extra time, before giving up a 3-0 advantage to Championship side Coventry City and avoiding serious embarrassment to finally win the semi-final on penalties.

If that was Ten Hag’s swansong then he would be leaving the club after one of his finest moments in charge of the club, with the FA Cup providing a warm ray of light after a grueling campaign. The Dutchman can point to two trophies in two seasons with no English club bar Manchester City winning more in that period.

Nevertheless, United have identified a list of targets with the likes of Mauricio Pochettino, Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter, Thomas Frank and Kieran McKenna lined up as potential replacements.