(Stock ID: 2192950463)
England and Spain both reached the last four in North America, and they got there in completely different ways. Spain won the tournament by conceding once in eight matches. England finished third by winning a bronze final 6-4. Anyone reading the England vs Spains odds for Wembley on 26 September is pricing a meeting between the meanest defence in World Cup history and one that shipped 10 goals in five knockout ties.
Spain won five knockout matches and conceded once
Spain beat Austria 1-0 in the round of 32, then Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16 through a Mikel Merino goal in the first minute of stoppage time. Belgium got the only goal anyone managed against them in a 2-1 quarter-final. France were beaten 2-0 in the semi-final and Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the final, Ferran Torres scoring in the 106th minute at MetLife Stadium.
That is a World Cup record
One goal conceded across an eight-match tournament is the fewest by any winner. The previous best was two, shared by Spain in 2010, Italy in 2006 and France in 1998. Unai Simon kept seven clean sheets, more than any goalkeeper at a single World Cup, and went 650 minutes without conceding, beating a mark Walter Zenga had held since 1990.
The back four barely changed
Luis de la Fuente finished the tournament with Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella as full-backs, Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte in the middle and Rodri screening them. Cubarsi was 19 throughout. Spain conceded nothing in three group games and nothing in either match against Kylian Mbappe or Lionel Messi.
England conceded in every knockout round
England beat DR Congo 3-1, then Mexico 3-2 at the Azteca with Jarell Quansah sent off after 54 minutes. Norway took them to extra time before a 2-1 defeat, and Argentina won the semi-final 2-1 with goals in the 85th minute and in stoppage time. Add the bronze final and it comes to 10 goals in five matches.
The 6-4 was two different games
England led France 4-0 at half time in Miami Gardens through Declan Rice, an Ezri Konsa header and two from Bukayo Saka. It was the first time France had been four down at the break in any international since 1930. Then Mbappe scored in the 48th minute, Bradley Barcola made it 4-2 six minutes later and Mbappe’s second brought France within one. The lead England built in 45 minutes almost vanished in 18.
What held it together
Saka completed his hat-trick from the penalty spot and Jude Bellingham ran through in stoppage time for 6-4 after Ousmane Dembele had pulled France back to 5-4. Saka became the second England player to score a knockout hat-trick at a World Cup, after Geoff Hurst in 1966. England scored 15 goals in five knockout matches, which is why the defensive numbers were survivable.
Wembley asks a narrower question
Spain will not give England a 4-0 head start, and England will not get 15 knockout goals out of a single match. Jordan Pickford’s back four in the semi-final was Reece James, John Stones, Marc Guehi and Djed Spence, and it held a 1-0 lead until the 85th minute before conceding twice. Spain punish that window better than Argentina did.
The market and the evidence
Spain arrive as world champions who conceded one goal in eight games. England arrive with a third-place medal, their best finish since 1966, and the highest-scoring bronze final ever played. Anyone comparing the football odds available for the opener should start with the same question the tournament left open, which is whether England can keep a clean sheet against a team that has forgotten how to concede.