With over half the 2025/26 season now complete (250 matches played), we’ve got enough data to meaningfully compare this campaign’s scoring patterns against the full 2024/25 Premier League season. This kind of macro trend analysis is invaluable when refining weekly score predictions, particularly around assumptions on home advantage, goal expectation, BTTS and clean sheets.

Below we summarise the headline numbers from 2024/25 (380 matches) and compare them directly to 2025/26 up to GW25 (250 matches), before pulling out the key tactical and predictive takeaways. FISO Goals is the EPL Score Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.

---

Home Wins vs Draws vs Away Wins

🔵 2024/25 (Full Season – 380 matches)

• Home wins: 155 (40.8%)
• Draws: 93 (24.5%)
• Away wins: 132 (34.7%)

🟣 2025/26 (After GW25 – 250 matches)

• Home wins: 110 (44.0%)
• Draws: 65 (26.0%)
• Away wins: 75 (30.0%)

📌 What’s Changed?

• Home wins are up this season (44% vs 40.8%).
• Away wins are down significantly (30% vs 34.7%).
• Draw frequency is broadly similar.

👉 This suggests home advantage has strengthened in 2025/26, which should slightly nudge predictions toward home wins where the matchup is marginal.

---

Most Common Scorelines

🟣 2025/26 (After GW25 – Top Results)

• 1–1 → 12%
• 2–1 → 9.2%
• 2–0 → 9.2%
• 0–0 → 6.8%
• 0–1 → 6.8%
• 1–2 → 6.8%
• 3–0 → 6.4%
• 2–2 → 6.0%
• 1–0 → 5.6%
• 3–1 → 5.6%

In 2024/25, the most common results were also clustered around 2–1, 1–1, 2–0 and 3–1, but there was a notably higher share of 4+ goal matches (see below), which slightly diluted the dominance of mid-range scorelines. The most frequent results across the whole 24/25 season were:

1. 1–1 → 45 matches (11.84%)
2. 2–1 (home win) → 33 matches (8.68%)
3. 2–2 → 31 matches (8.16%)
4. 1–0 (home win) → 29 matches (7.63%)
5. 1–2 (away win) → 29 matches (7.63%)
6. 0–2 (away win) → 28 matches (7.37%)
7. 0–1 (away win) → 26 matches (6.84%)
8. 2–0 (home win) → 21 matches (5.53%)
9. 3–1 (home win) → 17 matches (4.47%)
10. 0–0 → 16 matches (4.21%)

👉 The big story this season: more tight, low-margin scorelines, fewer blowouts with 2-0 and 0-0 both much more popular results so far in 2025/26 compared to the 2024/25 season.

---

Goals Per Match & High-Scoring Games

In 2024/25, the Premier League was unusually attack-heavy, averaging 2.93 goals per match, with 34.2% of fixtures featuring 4 or more goals. That placed last season firmly in the “high event” category, with frequent shootouts and a steady stream of 3–2, 4–1 and 4–2 scorelines.

By contrast, 2025/26 up to GW25 has cooled slightly. The league is averaging 2.79 goals per match, and only 29.2% of games have produced 4+ goals. While still a relatively entertaining scoring environment by historical EPL standards, this represents a clear step down in volatility compared to last season.

The practical implication for score prediction models is that big scorelines should be used more selectively in 2025/26. Whereas 2024/25 often rewarded aggressive 3–1 or 4–1 calls, the current season is better approached with a bias toward narrower margins (2–1, 2–0) and a greater respect for matches staying under four total goals unless form, xG trends and fixture context all strongly align.

---

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

🔵 2024/25

• BTTS: 57.4%

🟣 2025/26 (GW25)

• BTTS: 55.6%

📌 What’s Changed?

BTTS remains remarkably stable year-on-year. The slight dip suggests:

• A touch more defensive control this season.
• Slightly more one-sided games (often driven by stronger home performances).

👉 BTTS remains a very solid default assumption in close fixtures.

---

Clean Sheets & Defensive Outcomes

🔵 2024/25

• Matches with at least one clean sheet: 178 (46.8%)
  • Home win + CS: 71 (18.7%)
  • Away win + CS: 75 (19.7%)
  • 0–0 draws: 16 (4.2%)

🟣 2025/26 (GW25)

• Matches with a clean sheet: 111 (44.4%)
  • Home win + CS: 55 (22.0%)
  • Away win + CS: 39 (15.6%)
  • 0–0 draws: 17 (6.8%)

📌 What’s Changed?

• Home clean-sheet wins have increased significantly (22% vs 18.7%).
• Away clean-sheet wins have fallen sharply (15.6% vs 19.7%).
• 0–0 draws are more common this season.

👉 This aligns with the broader theme:
stronger home performances, tighter away attacks, more cagey low-scoring games.

---

Big Picture: What This Means for Score Predictions

Compared to the free-scoring, away-friendly nature of 2024/25, the 2025/26 season so far shows:

• 🏠 Stronger home advantage
• ⚽ Slightly lower scoring environment
• 🔐 More home clean sheets
• 🧮 More 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 type outcomes
• 🟰 More 0–0s than last season

Practical Adjustments for Prediction Models

If you’re tuning your weekly prediction logic:

• Slightly downgrade away win probability vs last season.
• Be less aggressive with 3+ goal predictions.
• In evenly matched fixtures, 1–1 remains king.
• In strong home mismatches, 2–0 is emerging as a higher-probability default.
• Clean sheets for top home sides are more reliable than in 24/25.

---

Final Thought

The 2025/26 season is shaping up to be slightly more controlled, more home-leaning, and marginally lower scoring than last year. That doesn’t mean chaos is gone – it just means score predictions should now lean more towards narrow margins and structural advantages (home form, defensive solidity, and xG under/over-performance correction) rather than last season’s more open-game baseline.

Another quick turnaround Gameweek as the Premier League schedule barely pauses for breath after GW25. With only a short break, rotation risk, fatigue and regression to the mean all come into play – making this an ideal week to lean on form tables, home/away splits and xG trend signals rather than simply raw results.

GW25 again highlighted several “process vs outcome” mismatches, with Bournemouth, Burnley, Fulham and Newcastle all posting strong xG but failing to win. Those teams are now firmly on the regression watchlist for GW26, while the usual elite home sides (Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United) continue to justify trust when the underlying numbers support them.

Below is the fixture-by-fixture breakdown. The algorithm-based score predictions for GW26 below are based on a) Recent form (last 6 to 10 matches) including Home and Away Form and b) Results and XGs from last 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.

Chelsea vs Leeds

Chelsea’s win away at Wolves was backed up by dominant underlying numbers, and Stamford Bridge remains a difficult place to go. Leeds did produce big xG against Forest, but their away form across the season remains among the weakest in the league. This feels like a narrow home win rather than a comfortable one, with Leeds capable of contributing a goal.

Prediction: Chelsea 2–1 Leeds

---

Everton vs Bournemouth

Everton’s victory at Fulham was one of the more misleading results of GW25, with Fulham dominating the chances. Bournemouth, by contrast, were unlucky not to beat Aston Villa after creating heavily. This is a classic “process beats result” spot, with Bournemouth looking the value side based on recent xG trends.

Prediction: Everton 1–2 Bournemouth

---

Tottenham vs Newcastle

Tottenham continue to struggle for consistency, and their recent form remains patchy. Newcastle were one of the most eye-catching teams in the underlying numbers last week, posting a high xG total despite losing. With both teams capable of conceding chances, this has the look of a volatile fixture, but Newcastle’s attacking process gives them a slight edge.

Prediction: Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle

---

West Ham vs Manchester United

United’s away form profile is among the strongest in the league, and their performance at Spurs was solid across most metrics. West Ham’s win over Burnley came despite being second best on xG, which often proves unreliable as a platform for momentum. This looks like a relatively strong away spot for United.

Prediction: West Ham 0–2 Man United

---

Aston Villa vs Brighton

Villa remain a strong home side, even if their recent result against Bournemouth flattered them slightly. Brighton’s form has dipped and their away performances haven’t carried the same threat seen earlier in the season. Villa’s home edge and greater attacking consistency tip this one in their favour, though Brighton are competitive enough to keep it close.

Prediction: Aston Villa 2–1 Brighton

---

Crystal Palace vs Burnley

Burnley were arguably unlucky to lose to West Ham and have been more competitive in chance creation than the table suggests. Palace’s win at Brighton was supported by the underlying numbers, but they still struggle to turn control into goals consistently. This profiles as a low-margin game, with a draw the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1–1 Burnley

---

Manchester City vs Fulham

City’s home record remains elite, and their draw at Spurs was backed by strong xG. Fulham, however, were unlucky against Everton and continue to create chances regularly, even away from home. Expect City to dominate territory and chances, but Fulham may have enough to avoid a shut-out.

Prediction: Man City 2–1 Fulham

---

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves

Wolves’ away form remains one of the weakest in the division, and Forest’s home performances tend to be more competitive even when overall form dips. Neither side is prolific, so this looks more like a narrow, low-scoring affair than a high-event game.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–0 Wolves

---

Sunderland vs Liverpool

Sunderland’s home form has been quietly strong over a sustained period, while Liverpool’s away performances have fluctuated between impressive and flat. With Liverpool often conceding chances on the road and Sunderland competitive at home, this has draw written all over it.

Prediction: Sunderland 1–1 Liverpool

---

Brentford vs Arsenal

Arsenal continue to top most of the recent-form metrics and were convincing again last time out. Brentford’s win over Newcastle came despite being second best on xG, suggesting some short-term overperformance. Arsenal’s consistency across results and process makes them the safer pick, though Brentford are strong enough at home to keep this tight.

Prediction: Brentford 1–2 Arsenal

---

GW26 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
Chelsea vs Leeds	2–1	Medium-High
Everton vs Bournemouth	1–2	Medium
Tottenham vs Newcastle	1–2	Medium
West Ham vs Man Utd	0–2	High
Aston Villa vs Brighton	2–1	Medium-High
Crystal Palace vs Burnley	1–1	Medium
Man City vs Fulham	2–1	High
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves	1–0	Medium
Sunderland vs Liverpool	1–1	Medium
Brentford vs Arsenal	1–2	Medium-High

Also here’s the EPL results stats up to GW25 including most common scores:

Home/Draw/Away results Out of 250 matches:

Home wins: 110 (44%)

Draws: 65 (26%)

Away wins: 75 (30%)

Takeaway:
Home advantage is still real, but away wins are pretty chunky this season (30%).

Most common scores up to GW25:

1–1 → 30 matches (12%)

2–1 → 23 matches (9.2%)

2–0 → 23 matches (9.2%)

0–0 → 17 matches (6.8%)

0–1 → 17 matches (6.8%)

1–2 → 17 matches (6.8%)

3–0 → 16 matches (6.4%)

2–2 → 15 matches (6%)

1–0 → 14 matches (5.6%)

3–1 → 14 matches (5.6%)

After a lively GW24 with high-scoring home wins for Arsenal and Liverpool, and another chaotic Spurs fixture, GW25 presents a mixed slate of form clashes, derby tension and contrasting away profiles.

Arsenal continue to set the pace and face Sunderland at home, while the standout fixture of the round sees Liverpool host Manchester City in what could be pivotal in the title race. Everton’s strong away form faces Fulham, and Wolves host Chelsea in a fixture that pits a blunt attack against a defence that struggles to keep clean sheets. Leeds vs Forest and Brighton vs Palace look like classic mid-table grinders, while Newcastle vs Brentford is a tight matchup between two sides whose form tables suggest fine margins.

The algorithm-based score predictions for GW25 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) c) Away Form performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home) and d) Results and XGs from recent GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members

---

🔮 Match-by-match predictions

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest – 1–1
Both sides struggle for consistency. Forest’s away form is improving, Leeds draw often at Elland Road. Tight, low margin game.

Man Utd vs Tottenham – 2–2
Two sides with high BTTS profiles. Spurs rarely shut up shop, United concede at home more than elite sides. Chaos expected.

Arsenal vs Sunderland – 3–0
Arsenal’s attack vs Sunderland’s fragile away defence. Sunderland’s low away xG suggests limited threat.

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa – 1–2
Villa due attacking regression after xG underperformance last week. Bournemouth competitive but leaky.

Burnley vs West Ham – 1–1
Two low-confidence sides. Burnley don’t lose heavily at home but struggle to win. West Ham draw-prone away.

Fulham vs Everton – 1–1
Everton strong away defensively, Fulham consistent at home. Smells like a draw.

Wolves vs Chelsea – 0–2
Wolves struggle for goals, Chelsea’s away xG steady. Chelsea to control.

Newcastle vs Brentford – 2–1
Newcastle strong at home; Brentford away volatile. Narrow home win.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace – 1–1
Derby-ish feel, both sides heavy draw profiles. Likely cagey.

Liverpool vs Man City – 2–2
Big game, both with elite xG creation but defensive vulnerabilities away. Entertaining draw.

---

📊 GW25 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
Leeds vs Nottm Forest	1–1	Medium
Man Utd vs Tottenham	2–2	Medium
Arsenal vs Sunderland	3–0	High
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa	1–2	Medium
Burnley vs West Ham	1–1	Low
Fulham vs Everton	1–1	Medium
Wolves vs Chelsea	0–2	High
Newcastle vs Brentford	2–1	Medium
Brighton vs Crystal Palace	1–1	Medium
Liverpool vs Man City	2–2	Medium

Saturday 31 January – Monday 2 February 2026

GW24 sits in a familiar sweet spot for goals. The Champions League pause removes midweek fatigue for most sides, but League Cup semi-final second legs on Tuesday and Wednesday next week do slightly cloud the picture for Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Newcastle United. With first-leg advantages already established for Arsenal and City, rotation risk is modest rather than extreme.

The algorithm-based score predictions for GW22 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) and c) Away Form performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home) and d) XGs from past 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot? The model expectation this GW24 bweek is 26–30 total goals, slightly lower than GW23 but still above the season mean. Several fixtures show xG imbalance carry-over, particularly where teams under- or over-performed in GW23.

---

Brighton vs Everton

Brighton continue to post solid underlying numbers without fully converting them, while Everton remain one of the league’s strongest away units by recent form. Everton’s defensive xG suppression away from home keeps this tight, but Brighton’s chance volume suggests they should at least score.

Prediction: Brighton 1–1 Everton
Confidence: Medium

---

Leeds vs Arsenal

Leeds remain competitive but struggle to control matches against top-six opponents. Arsenal’s attacking output dipped slightly last week, but their xG trend remains strong and they rotate far more comfortably than most ahead of the League Cup.

Prediction: Leeds 1–2 Arsenal
Confidence: High

---

Wolves vs Bournemouth

Two sides who concede chances regularly. Wolves’ home xG against is creeping upward, while Bournemouth continue to outperform expectations in open games. This profiles as a volatile, BTTS-friendly fixture.

Prediction: Wolves 1–2 Bournemouth
Confidence: Medium

---

Chelsea vs West Ham

Chelsea’s recent results have lagged behind their attacking xG, while West Ham’s defensive numbers remain among the weakest in the league. Even with a semi-final looming, Chelsea should create enough.

Prediction: Chelsea 2–1 West Ham
Confidence: Medium

---

Liverpool vs Newcastle

Liverpool’s recent home xG has been strong but finishing erratic. Newcastle’s away numbers are solid, yet defensive lapses persist against elite attacks. With no Champions League distraction and a point to prove, Liverpool look set for a narrow win.

Prediction: Liverpool 2–1 Newcastle
Confidence: Medium

---

Aston Villa vs Brentford

Villa’s home control remains excellent, but Brentford are one of the league’s most dangerous transition sides away from home. Villa’s xG edge should tell, though a clean sheet looks unlikely.

Prediction: Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford
Confidence: Medium

---

Manchester United vs Fulham

United’s attacking form has improved noticeably, particularly at Old Trafford. Fulham remain competitive but concede chances in clusters away from home. This feels like a fixture where United’s recent xG momentum converts.

Prediction: Manchester United 2–1 Fulham
Confidence: Medium

---

Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace

Forest’s home performances are improving, while Palace’s attacking output remains one of the weakest in the league by xG and are now bottom of the 6 game form table. A low-tempo, low-margin game suits Forest.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace
Confidence: Medium

---

Tottenham vs Manchester City

City may rotate slightly, but Spurs’ defensive numbers against top sides remain fragile. City’s ability to control territory and limit counter-attacks gives them a clear edge, even away from home.

Prediction: Tottenham 1–2 Manchester City
Confidence: Medium

---

Sunderland vs Burnley

Sunderland continue to draw frequently, but Burnley’s underlying numbers suggest they should be scoring more than they are. These two teams are in the bottom 3 of the 6 game form table so low on confidence. This looks like a fixture where regression nudges Burnley onto the scoresheet, though not necessarily to a win.

Prediction: Sunderland 1–1 Burnley
Confidence: Medium

---

GW24 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
Brighton vs Everton	1–1	Medium
Leeds vs Arsenal	1–2	High
Wolves vs Bournemouth	1–2	Medium
Chelsea vs West Ham	2–1	Medium
Liverpool vs Newcastle	2–1	Medium
Aston Villa vs Brentford	2–1	Medium
Manchester United vs Fulham	2–1	Medium
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace	1–0	Medium
Tottenham vs Manchester City	1–2	Medium
Sunderland vs Burnley	1–1	Medium

Saturday 24th – Sunday 26th January 2026

GW23 arrives with a very different feel to the previous two rounds. The extreme congestion and goal spikes seen in GW20–21 have eased slightly, but the Champions League midweek round (Wed 28th) now plays a decisive role — particularly for Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United, who are all fighting for top-eight qualification whilst Liverpool look to have an easier match. By contrast, Arsenal are already qualified with a perfect Champions League record, giving them a rare scheduling advantage this weekend.

The algorithm-based score predictions for GW22 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) and c) Away Form performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home) and d) XGs from past 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot? For GW23 an upgraded model now formally includes:

• xG regression (for both under-scoring and lucky clean sheets),
• away-form prioritisation over league position,
• fixture-importance downgrades for clubs facing decisive European ties,
• and a low-block / draw-inflation rule when attacking metrics are suppressed.

---

🔍 Match-by-match commentary

West Ham vs Sunderland

West Ham continue to struggle for control in midfield and remain one of the weakest sides on recent form. Sunderland, meanwhile, are quietly one of the league’s most draw-prone teams, especially away from home. Neither side profiles as a strong finisher, and both average well below 1.3 xGF recently.

Prediction: tight, attritional, and likely level.

---

Burnley vs Tottenham

Burnley are competitive but blunt, while Spurs now have a decisive Champions League fixture looming midweek. That typically suppresses Spurs’ attacking ceiling rather than their overall result. Burnley’s defence still concedes chances, and Spurs should edge it — but not comfortably.

---

Fulham vs Brighton

A classic mid-table stalemate profile. Both sides create chances without converting at elite rates, and both rank highly for 1–1 outcomes. Brighton’s away form is respectable but not dominant; Fulham remain stubborn at home.

---

Manchester City vs Wolves

City’s Champions League match matters after their poor defensive performance away on Tuesday 20th, but this is still a fixture where their squad depth (after a couple of major purchases in this January window) can manage both competitions despite missing their regular centre-back combination due to injuries. Wolves struggle badly away against elite possession sides and generate little sustained xG.

This should be one of the clearer home wins of the round.

---

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Liverpool are in a slightly different European position: they likely only need a draw at home midweek against medium opposition, which reduces rotation risk compared to other UCL sides. Bournemouth concede heavily when pressed aggressively, and Liverpool’s recent xG trend suggests they are due a more clinical display.

---

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Brentford’s home numbers remain strong, and Forest’s away performances fluctuate wildly and will be a little jaded from their Thursday Europa League match tonight. Forest are capable of frustrating better teams, but Brentford’s pressing and set-piece threat should tilt this in their favour.

---

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Chelsea’s European fixture is genuinely decisive, and the model continues to fade their attacking output in such weeks. Palace are low-scoring but defensively awkward (and have sold their main centre back to Man City), and this has all the hallmarks of another frustrating Chelsea away trip.

---

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

One of the most volatile fixtures of the round. Both sides generate strong xG, both concede chances, and Newcastle’s Champions League pressure adds uncertainty rather than clarity. Villa are far more dangerous away than league position alone suggests although have 1 day less recovery time after their Europa Cup match tonight.

Goals at both ends feel inevitable.

---

Arsenal vs Manchester United

This is where the scheduling edge really matters. Arsenal have no European distraction, excellent home control metrics, and consistently suppress opponent xG. United remain dangerous but erratic, and still struggle against structured high-press sides.

Arsenal should edge a high-quality contest.

---

Everton vs Leeds

Everton’s away luck has already regressed, but at Goodison they remain difficult to break down. Leeds continue to post decent xG without turning it into goals, particularly away from home. This profiles as a narrow home win with limited scoring.

---

📋 GW23 Score Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
West Ham vs Sunderland	1–1	Medium
Burnley vs Tottenham	1–2	Medium
Fulham vs Brighton	1–1	Medium
Manchester City vs Wolves	2–0	High
Bournemouth vs Liverpool	1–2	Medium
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest	2–1	Medium
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea	1–1	Medium
Newcastle vs Aston Villa	2–2	Medium
Arsenal vs Manchester United	2–1	High
Everton vs Leeds	1–0	Medium

---

🔮 Final GW23 outlook

• Expected total goals: ~28–30
• Fewer extreme scorelines than GW20–21
• Draw probability remains elevated in mid-table fixtures
• Arsenal stand out as the clearest structural edge this week

GW21 – Tuesday 6th – Thursday 8th January 2026

After a high-scoring GW20 that delivered 32 goals, Matchweek 21 follows quickly with another short turnaround. Historically, this period of the season tends to remain goal-friendly, particularly as defensive fatigue sets in and deeper squads continue to rotate more effectively.

The algorithm-based score predictions for GW21 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) and c) Away performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home). GW21 is assumed to contain more goals than a typical GW (like GW20). FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot?

---

⚽ West Ham United vs Nottingham Forest

Prediction: West Ham 2–1 Nottingham Forest
Both sides are struggling defensively, but West Ham’s home advantage and Forest’s poor away record suggest the hosts can edge a match likely to feature goals.

---

⚽ Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur

Prediction: Bournemouth 1–2 Tottenham
Spurs’ away form remains stronger than their league position suggests. Bournemouth can score at home, but Tottenham’s attacking quality should prove decisive.

---

⚽ Brentford vs Sunderland

Prediction: Brentford 2–1 Sunderland
Brentford are more reliable at home and create enough chances to outscore Sunderland, who remain difficult to beat but rarely dominate matches.

---

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1–2 Aston Villa
Villa continue to score consistently and cope well with tight schedules. Palace are capable at home but may struggle to contain Villa’s attacking momentum.

---

⚽ Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Prediction: Everton 2–0 Wolves
Wolves remain the lowest scorers in the league, while Everton’s home performances are solid. A rare clean sheet looks possible here despite Wolves’ recent improved results.

---

⚽ Fulham vs Chelsea

Prediction: Fulham 1–1 Chelsea
Chelsea’s tendency to draw continues, and Fulham are competitive at home. Neither side looks reliable enough to justify a strong win prediction.

---

⚽ Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Prediction: Man City 3–1 Brighton
City’s attacking numbers remain elite and Brighton concede chances away from home. With short rest again favouring deeper squads, City should score freely.

---

⚽ Burnley vs Manchester United

Prediction: Burnley 1–2 Man United
Burnley’s defensive issues persist, and United should create enough chances despite inconsistency and missing Bruno & Mbueno. A narrow away win is expected.

---

⚽ Newcastle United vs Leeds United

Prediction: Newcastle 2–1 Leeds
Leeds continue to play open football, which suits Newcastle’s attacking strengths at home. Goals at both ends look likely.

---

⚽ Arsenal vs Liverpool

Prediction: Arsenal 2–2 Liverpool
The standout fixture of the round. Both sides are strong going forward, and with fatigue in play, defensive solidity may suffer. A high-quality, high-scoring draw feels the most balanced outcome.

---

📊 GW21 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest	2–1	Medium
Bournemouth vs Tottenham	1–2	Medium
Brentford vs Sunderland	2–1	Medium
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa	1–2	Medium
Everton vs Wolves	2–0	Medium–High
Fulham vs Chelsea	1–1	Low
Man City vs Brighton	3–1	High
Burnley vs Man United	1–2	Medium
Newcastle vs Leeds	2–1	Medium
Arsenal vs Liverpool	2–2	Medium–High

---

GW21 Summary

• Expected total goals: ~28–32
• Best confidence picks: Man City, Everton
• Most volatile fixture: Arsenal vs Liverpool
• Draw potential remains high, but with goals again favoured

Saturday 3rd – Sunday 4th January 2026

After an unusual GW19 that produced seven draws, including three goalless matches, attention now turns to Matchweek 20, played early in the New Year following a short turnaround from the end-of-December fixtures. Historically, this point in the season tends to generate slightly higher goal totals, and with no clubs distracted by cup commitments, squad depth and attacking regression are expected to play an important role.

For GW20, recent form, home and away performance, and expected goals (xG) from GW19 have all been factored in. Teams that significantly underperformed their xG last time out are given a higher chance of scoring in this round, while those that conceded fewer goals than expected may be due some defensive regression. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot?

---

⚽ Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Prediction: Aston Villa 2–1 Nottingham Forest
Villa remain strong at home and continue to score regularly. Forest are capable of causing problems on the counter, but Villa’s attacking consistency should be enough for a narrow win.

---

⚽ Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley

Prediction: Brighton 2–0 Burnley
Burnley’s struggles in front of goal continue, while Brighton generally perform better at home. Burnley are likely to sit deep, but Brighton should find a way through.

---

⚽ Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United

Prediction: Wolves 1–1 West Ham
Both sides are inconsistent and lack cutting edge. This feels like a low-margin fixture where neither team does quite enough to take all three points.

---

⚽ Bournemouth vs Arsenal

Prediction: Bournemouth 1–3 Arsenal
Arsenal’s attacking numbers remain strong, and their squad depth should help on the short turnaround. Bournemouth can score at home, but Arsenal look capable of pulling clear.

---

⚽ Leeds United vs Manchester United

Prediction: Leeds 1–2 Man United
Leeds’ open style continues to create chances at both ends. United are not dominant, but should have enough to edge a close away win.

---

⚽ Everton vs Brentford

Prediction: Everton 1–2 Brentford
Everton were fortunate defensively in GW19 based on xG and may concede more this time. Brentford are competitive away and could exploit that regression.

---

⚽ Fulham vs Liverpool

Prediction: Fulham 1–3 Liverpool
Liverpool failed to score despite strong xG in GW19 and should benefit from attacking regression. Against a Fulham side that concedes chances, multiple goals look likely.

---

⚽ Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace

Prediction: Newcastle 2–1 Crystal Palace
Newcastle’s home form gives them the edge, while Palace are capable but inconsistent away. A close game, but Newcastle are favoured.

---

⚽ Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland

Prediction: Tottenham 2–0 Sunderland
Spurs tend to perform better than their league position suggests, especially against lower-scoring sides. Sunderland may struggle to break them down.

---

⚽ Manchester City vs Chelsea

Prediction: Man City 3–1 Chelsea
City underperformed in front of goal in GW19 and should bounce back strongly. Chelsea can threaten, but City’s depth and chance creation point to a comfortable home win.

---

📊 GW20 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest	2–1	Medium
Brighton vs Burnley	2–0	Medium–High
Wolves vs West Ham	1–1	Low
Bournemouth vs Arsenal	1–3	High
Leeds vs Man United	1–2	Medium
Everton vs Brentford	1–2	Medium
Fulham vs Liverpool	1–3	High
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace	2–1	Medium
Tottenham vs Sunderland	2–0	Medium–High
Man City vs Chelsea	3–1	High

First let’s look at how we did last Gameweek – GW18 – Prediction vs Actual Review

Using the following Scoring system (that’s also in place for FISO Goals)

• ✅ Correct result (W/D/L): 1 point
• 🎯 Exact scoreline: 3 points (instead of 1)

GW18 Predictions vs Results

Fixture	Prediction	Result	Outcome	Points
Man Utd vs Newcastle	1–1	1–0	Wrong result	0
Nottm Forest vs Man City	1–2	1–2	Exact score	3
Arsenal vs Brighton	2–0	2–1	Correct result	1
Brentford vs Bournemouth	2–1	4–1	Correct result	1
Burnley vs Everton	0–1	0–0	Wrong result	0
Liverpool vs Wolves	2–0	2–1	Correct result	1
West Ham vs Fulham	1–1	0–1	Wrong result	0
Chelsea vs Aston Villa	1–2	1–2	Exact score	3
Sunderland vs Leeds	1–1	1–1	Exact score	3
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham	2–1	0–1	Wrong result	0

📊 GW18 Score Summary

• Correct results: 6
• Exact scores: 3
• Total score: 12 / 30 (equal top of FISO Goals for GW18)

EPL GW19 FISO Algorithm-based Predictions

30th December 2025 – 1st January 2026

Following a strong GW18 showing — 6 correct results including 3 exact scores for a total of 12 points — we move straight into GW19, played just days later. With minimal recovery time, squad depth becomes more important, giving a slight edge to the bigger clubs, while recent form and away performance continue to outweigh overall league position.

Below are the GW19 score predictions, based on recent form (last six), home vs away trends, and known squad factors.

---

Burnley vs Newcastle

Prediction: Burnley 1–2 Newcastle
Burnley remain short of confidence despite competing better at home, while Newcastle have enough attacking quality to edge tight games and created enough chances at Man United to score. Not convincing, but marginally in Newcastle’s favour unless their attackers continue to miss the target.

---

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Prediction: Chelsea 2–0 Bournemouth
Chelsea’s recent form has stabilised and they face a Bournemouth side struggling to convert pressure into goals (with star play Semenyo possibly distracted by his expected move away in the January transfer window to Man City or Liverpool?). Home advantage and superior squad depth should tell.

---

Nottingham Forest vs Everton

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Everton
Two inconsistent sides with limited attacking threat. Forest are better at home, but Everton’s organisation makes this feel like a low-scoring draw.

---

West Ham vs Brighton

Prediction: West Ham 1–1 Brighton
Both teams have been draw-prone and defensively unreliable. Brighton’s away form is patchy, while West Ham lack cutting edge — a stalemate looks likely.

---

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Prediction: Arsenal 2–1 Aston Villa
A standout fixture. Villa are in excellent form (miss suspended RB Cash), but Arsenal’s home strength and deeper squad should help them cope better with the short turnaround. A close, high-quality contest.

---

Man Utd vs Wolves

Prediction: Man Utd 2–0 Wolves
Despite missing creativity in midfield, United face a Wolves side struggling badly for goals. Home advantage and Wolves’ poor form point towards a controlled United win.

---

Crystal Palace vs Fulham

Prediction: Crystal Palace 2–1 Fulham
Palace’s heavy loss at Leeds in GW17 can be partly explained by Carabao quarter final priorities, and their home form remains solid. Fulham are capable but vulnerable defensively away.

---

Liverpool vs Leeds

Prediction: Liverpool 3–1 Leeds
Leeds play openly and concede chances, which suits Liverpool even with attacking absences. Short recovery time favours Liverpool’s deeper squad, making goals likely.

---

Brentford vs Tottenham

Prediction: Brentford 1–2 Tottenham
Tottenham’s overall league position understates how well they perform away from home. Brentford are competitive but concede regularly, giving Spurs the edge.

---

Sunderland vs Man City

Prediction: Sunderland 1–3 Man City
Sunderland are organised and difficult to break down, but City’s relentless form and squad depth should eventually overwhelm them, especially with minimal rest between games.

🔮 GW19 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
Burnley vs Newcastle	1–2	Medium
Chelsea vs Bournemouth	2–0	Medium–High
Nottm Forest vs Everton	1–1	Low
West Ham vs Brighton	1–1	Low
Arsenal vs Aston Villa	2–1	Medium
Man Utd vs Wolves	2–0	Medium–High
Crystal Palace vs Fulham	2–1	Medium
Liverpool vs Leeds	3–1	High
Brentford vs Tottenham	1–2	Medium
Sunderland vs Man City	1–3	High

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot?