The final day of the 2025/26 Premier League season arrives with several major storylines still unresolved. While the title race is already settled with Arsenal as champions, the final weekend still carries enormous significance:

• Spurs and West Ham are battling to avoid the final relegation place
• Positions 6th to 8th remain crucial in the race for European qualification
• Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea and Brentford are all still fighting for continental football

As always on the final day, motivation becomes a major predictive factor. Teams with everything to play for often outperform underlying season-long metrics, while sides safely positioned can become unpredictable.

Recent xG trends from GW36 and GW37 have also shaped several calls:

• Manchester City completely dominated Brentford and remain in relentless form
• Bournemouth earned another huge result against City and continue to be elite away from home
• Brighton’s underlying numbers against Leeds were excellent despite defeat
• Spurs remain fragile defensively despite picking up points recently
• West Ham continue conceding high-quality chances regularly

The final day traditionally produces goals, chaos and emotional swings — so expect several high-event matches.

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Below are our predicted EPL scores for the next GW using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!

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GW38 Predictions Table

Fixture	Prediction	Confidence
Brighton vs Man Utd	2-2	Medium
Burnley vs Wolves	2-1	Low
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal	1-2	Medium
Fulham vs Newcastle	1-1	Medium
Liverpool vs Brentford	2-2	Medium
Man City vs Aston Villa	3-1	High
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth	1-2	Medium
Sunderland vs Chelsea	2-1	Medium
Tottenham vs Everton	2-1	Medium
West Ham vs Leeds	1-1	Medium

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Match-by-Match Analysis

Brighton vs Man Utd

United’s home form has been exceptional recently, but their away profile is less dominant. Brighton remain one of the strongest attacking home sides in the division and still have a realistic European target.

The Seagulls created far more than Leeds in GW37 despite losing 1-0, suggesting positive attacking regression could arrive here.

Prediction: Brighton 2-2 Man Utd
Confidence: Medium

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Burnley vs Wolves

Both sides are already relegated, which makes this one difficult to model emotionally.

Burnley have at least shown more attacking intent recently, while Wolves continue posting extremely poor away metrics and remain bottom of the away form table.

Final-day freedom could produce goals.

Prediction: Burnley 2-1 Wolves
Confidence: Low

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Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Arsenal have already secured the title, but Mikel Arteta’s side rarely switch off structurally. Palace’s home form is solid and they remain capable of causing problems in transition.

Still, Arsenal’s defensive consistency and recent form edge make them deserved favourites.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Arsenal
Confidence: Medium

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Fulham vs Newcastle

Neither side has been especially reliable recently. Newcastle’s attack remains dangerous but their away defensive numbers continue to fluctuate badly.

Fulham’s home form remains respectable and this feels like a balanced final-day draw.

Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Newcastle
Confidence: Medium

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Liverpool vs Brentford

Brentford are still alive in the European race and remain awkward away opponents. Liverpool games have become increasingly chaotic:

• 20 goals scored in last 10
• 17 conceded
• 90% BTTS rate

That points strongly toward another open contest.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Brentford
Confidence: Medium

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Man City vs Aston Villa

City remain the strongest home side in the league statistically:

• Best home PPG
• Elite xG dominance
• Excellent defensive control

Villa’s away form has deteriorated sharply and their recent away PPG is among the league’s weakest.

Even with nothing tangible left to chase, City should finish strongly.

Prediction: Man City 3-1 Aston Villa
Confidence: High

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Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

This may quietly be one of the most important games of the round in the European race.

Bournemouth’s away form is elite:

• Best away PPG in league
• Unbeaten in last 10
• Consistently strong underlying numbers

Forest have improved recently but Bournemouth’s structure and momentum still give them the edge.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Bournemouth
Confidence: Medium

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Sunderland vs Chelsea

Chelsea’s decline has continued for weeks and Sunderland remain highly motivated after a strong recent run.

The Black Cats have become one of the better away and transitional sides statistically over the last 10 matches, while Chelsea’s confidence looks extremely fragile.

Prediction: Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea
Confidence: Medium

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Tottenham vs Everton

This is the biggest pressure fixture of the day.

Spurs know survival is in their own hands and the emotional energy at home should be enormous. Everton remain competitive but often open defensively away from home.

Tottenham’s attack should just do enough.

Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Everton
Confidence: Medium

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West Ham vs Leeds

West Ham also enter the final day under huge pressure. Leeds, however, remain one of the division’s most resilient away teams:

• Only one away defeat in last six
• Five draws in that stretch
• Strong defensive structure

This feels tense, cagey and potentially frustrating for both sides.

Prediction: West Ham 1-1 Leeds
Confidence: Medium

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Final Day Themes

1. Bournemouth Look Best Placed For Europe

Among the European challengers, Bournemouth arrive with:

• The best recent away form
• Strongest momentum
• Consistent underlying xG levels

They look well-positioned to secure continental football.

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2. Relegation Pressure Could Distort Normal Form

Spurs and West Ham are both under enormous psychological pressure.

Historically, survival-day matches tend to produce:

• More defensive mistakes
• Higher emotional variance
• Unexpected momentum swings

That slightly reduces confidence in both relegation-related predictions.

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3. Final-Day Goals Likely

Several indicators point toward another high-scoring final weekend:

• Multiple teams chasing Europe
• Survival pressure
• Relaxed mid-table teams
• Historically volatile final rounds

Strong candidates for goals:

• Brighton vs Man Utd
• Liverpool vs Brentford
• Spurs vs Everton
• Forest vs Bournemouth

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Predicted Final Top 8

1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Manchester United
4. Aston Villa
5. Liverpool
6. Bournemouth
7. Brighton
8. Brentford

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Predicted Relegation

18. West Ham
19. Burnley
20. Wolves

Gameweek 36 brings another important round in both the European race and relegation battle, with motivation now becoming one of the strongest predictive factors.

The title race remains alive mathematically, although Arsenal hold a useful advantage over Manchester City. More significantly for this week’s projections:

• The battle for 6th place is intense between Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton
• Spurs and West Ham are still looking nervously over their shoulders in the relegation fight
• Manchester City also have an additional fixture against Crystal Palace later in the week

Recent xG trends from GW34 and GW35 have also heavily influenced several calls this week:

• Newcastle’s attacking metrics rebounded strongly in the 3-1 win over Brighton
• Bournemouth continue producing elite underlying away numbers
• Chelsea’s collapse has become difficult to ignore
• Tottenham’s surprise win at Villa may prove momentum-changing in the survival race

As always, these predictions combine:

• Home/away form
• Last 10 matches
• xG performance and “fairness”
• Motivation/context
• Fixture congestion and psychology

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Below are our predicted EPL scores for the next GW using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!

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GW36 Predictions Table

Fixture	Prediction	Confidence
Liverpool vs Chelsea	2-1	Medium
Brighton vs Wolves	2-0	High
Fulham vs Bournemouth	1-2	Medium
Sunderland vs Man Utd	1-2	Medium
Man City vs Brentford	3-1	High
Burnley vs Aston Villa	1-2	Medium
Crystal Palace vs Everton	1-1	Medium
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle	2-2	Medium
West Ham vs Arsenal	0-2	High
Tottenham vs Leeds	2-1	Medium
Man City vs Crystal Palace	2-0	Medium

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Match-by-Match Analysis

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Chelsea’s form collapse is now severe:

• Bottom of the home form table
• Seven defeats in their last ten
• xG battered by Brighton recently

Liverpool remain inconsistent but are still producing strong attacking numbers at Anfield.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea
Confidence: Medium

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Brighton vs Wolves

Brighton’s home metrics remain excellent while Wolves have now been relegated and continue to struggle badly away from home.

Prediction: Brighton 2-0 Wolves
Confidence: High

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Fulham vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth are now one of the league’s form sides:

• Unbeaten in last 10
• Excellent away record
• Still chasing Europe aggressively

Fulham remain competitive at home but Bournemouth’s momentum gives them the edge.

Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Bournemouth
Confidence: Medium

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Sunderland vs Man Utd

Sunderland remain difficult to trust defensively against top-half attacks. United’s away form has quietly improved significantly and they still have outside hopes of catching the Champions League places.

Prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Man Utd
Confidence: Medium

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Man City vs Brentford

City continue to post elite numbers both home and away. Brentford are awkward opponents and still pushing for Europe, but City’s squad depth and attacking control should prove decisive.

Prediction: Man City 3-1 Brentford
Confidence: High

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Burnley vs Aston Villa

Villa’s away form remains patchy but Burnley’s defensive numbers are among the league’s worst and relegation is already confirmed.

Prediction: Burnley 1-2 Aston Villa
Confidence: Medium

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Crystal Palace vs Everton

This looks one of the trickier games to call:

• Everton are competitive but inconsistent away
• Palace’s motivation is less clear with mid-table safety effectively secured

A draw feels the likeliest outcome.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Everton
Confidence: Medium

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Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

Forest’s recent improvement and strong home attacking output meets a Newcastle side whose attack suddenly rediscovered rhythm in GW35.

This has the feel of an open game with goals at both ends.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Newcastle
Confidence: Medium

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West Ham vs Arsenal

West Ham are still under relegation pressure but Arsenal’s home and away metrics remain elite. Arsenal also continue to concede very few chances.

The Gunners should have enough control and quality here.

Prediction: West Ham 0-2 Arsenal
Confidence: High

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Tottenham vs Leeds

This is now a huge relegation-pressure fixture.

Spurs gained a massive confidence boost by winning at Villa and Leeds remain draw-prone away from home despite improving form.

Home advantage may just tilt this.

Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Leeds
Confidence: Medium

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Man City vs Crystal Palace

City’s extra fixture later in the week could become critical in the title race.

Palace are organised but City’s control, possession dominance and squad quality should wear them down eventually.

Prediction: Man City 2-0 Crystal Palace
Confidence: Medium

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GW36 Themes

1. Motivation Matters More Than Raw Form

The strongest predictive edge currently comes from identifying:

• European qualification races
• Relegation fear
• Teams with little left to play for

That heavily boosts:

• Bournemouth
• Brentford
• Spurs
• Arsenal
• Man City

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2. Bournemouth Continue To Be Undervalued

The Cherries are now:

• 6th in the league
• Unbeaten in 10
• Elite away performers

Their underlying numbers increasingly justify treating them like a genuine European-level side.

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3. Chelsea’s Collapse Looks Structural

Chelsea’s decline is no longer just variance:

• Poor recent xG
• Weak confidence levels
• Very poor home form

Until performances stabilise, they remain difficult to back against top-half opponents.

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Final Word

With only a few weeks remaining, the league table is shaping decision-making more than season-long averages.

The biggest tension points now are:

• Arsenal vs Man City for the title
• Bournemouth/Brentford/Brighton chasing Europe
• Spurs and West Ham trying to avoid disaster

That pressure should continue producing:

• Tight relegation six-pointers
• Aggressive European-chasing performances
• More reliable elite-team wins

GW36 also looks likely to produce goals, particularly in:

• Forest vs Newcastle
• Spurs vs Leeds
• Fulham vs Bournemouth
• Man City vs Brentford

Good luck this week, and as always, keep the discussion going on the FISO forum.

With FA Cup semi-finals taking centre stage this weekend, Gameweek 34 is a reduced slate – just seven Premier League fixtures. That naturally shifts the dynamic for both FPL managers and result forecasting: fewer matches, more focus on form, and less need to “balance” outcomes to long-run averages.

As always, these predictions follow our core model principles: recent form (last 6/10), home/away splits, xG signals, and fixture context – with a bit of randomness baked in.

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. See our predicted EPL scores for next GW using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!

You can also check our earlier GW33 predictions and reasoning on our homepage.

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GW34 Score Predictions

Fixture	Predicted Score	Confidence
Sunderland vs Nott’m Forest	1–2	Medium
Fulham vs Aston Villa	1–2	Medium
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace	2–0	High
West Ham vs Everton	1–1	Medium
Wolves vs Tottenham	1–2	Medium
Arsenal vs Newcastle	2–1	Medium–High
Man Utd vs Brentford	2–1	Medium–High

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Match-by-Match Insights

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest

We project Nottingham Forest to edge this one. They carry the stronger attacking numbers across recent gameweeks, while Sunderland remain inconsistent defensively. Expect a competitive game, but Forest’s goal threat should tell along with the desire for 1 more win to definitely avoid relegation (although maybe some players will have their eye on Forest’s UEFA Europa Semi v Aston Villa on Thurs 30th April?)

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Fulham vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa’s attacking data – particularly from recent xG trends – gives them the edge. Fulham are solid at home but concede enough chances to keep this open. We predict Villa to win a relatively even contest in their quest for a Champions League place (although maybe some players will have their eye on Villa’s UEFA Europa Semi v Nottingham Forest on Thurs 30th April?)

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Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

Liverpool’s home form remains one of the most reliable indicators in the league. Palace struggle for consistent attacking output, and unless they overperform their underlying numbers, this looks like a controlled home win.

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West Ham vs Everton

This has all the hallmarks of a draw. Both sides sit in a similar performance bracket across form, xG, and goal profiles. Neither attack is dominant, so a low-scoring stalemate looks the most likely outcome.

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Wolves vs Tottenham

Not a high-quality fixture on current form, but Tottenham still offer more attacking upside than Wolves. Spurs’ defensive issues mean Wolves should get chances, but we still project Tottenham to come out on top.

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Arsenal vs Newcastle

Arsenal’s strong recent form – combined with home advantage – makes them favourites. Newcastle remain vulnerable defensively and inconsistent overall. We predict Arsenal to win, though Newcastle should be capable of scoring.

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Man Utd vs Brentford

Manchester United’s home record is a major factor here – one of the strongest in the league. Brentford are competitive away from home but concede enough chances for United to capitalise. A narrow home win looks most likely.

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GW34 Summary

This reduced gameweek leans slightly toward away wins, driven by favourable matchups for sides like Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham. However, the strongest home teams – Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United – still anchor the week.

With fewer fixtures, variance increases, so don’t be surprised if one or two results swing unexpectedly – especially in games like West Ham vs Everton or Wolves vs Spurs.

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Final Thoughts

GW34 is less about volume and more about precision – both for predictions and FPL planning. Target the strong home sides, respect recent form, and keep an eye on momentum from GW33 performances.

Good luck this week, and as always, keep the discussion going on the FISO forum.

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Below predict the EPL scores for GW33 using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!

Double Gameweek 33 is here — and it’s one of the most important and unpredictable weeks of the season.

With six teams playing twice (Man City, Chelsea, Brighton, Leeds, Bournemouth and Burnley), the usual prediction model shifts slightly. Fixture volume, rotation risk and fatigue all come into play, meaning this is a week where variance increases and upside matters more than ever.

👉 You can read our previous set of predictions here: FISO EPL GW31 Predictions

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DGW33 Context & Key Trends

Looking at the last two gameweeks (GW31–32) alongside the form tables:

• Bournemouth are emerging as one of the form teams — strong away record and a win at Arsenal backs that up
• Brighton continue to post strong attacking numbers (notably vs Liverpool), suggesting more goals are coming
• Everton have significantly overperformed xG — results may regress
• Tottenham sit bottom of both home and recent form metrics — a clear avoid signal
• Man City remain top of the last-10 form table and are still the most reliable team in the league

The key takeaway is simple: trust underlying performance, but allow for DGW volatility.

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How We’ve Built These Predictions

We’ve applied our standard FISO model (form, venue, attack/defence, xG signals and context weighting) with some small adjustments this week for the extra fixtures.

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DGW33 Score Predictions

Saturday 18 April

Brentford 2–1 Fulham
Brentford’s home form edge and Fulham’s weak away numbers tilt this.

Leeds 2–0 Wolves
Leeds benefit from the double and Wolves’ limited attacking output.

Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth
Bournemouth’s away form and recent big-result profile stands out.

Tottenham 1–2 Brighton
Spurs’ poor form continues; Brighton’s attacking data too strong to ignore.

Chelsea 1–1 Man Utd
Two inconsistent sides — draw looks most likely.

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Sunday 19 April

Aston Villa 2–1 Sunderland
Villa solid enough at home against a weaker defensive side.

Everton 1–2 Liverpool
Everton’s recent results look unsustainable; Liverpool can edge the derby.

Nottingham Forest 1–0 Burnley
Forest’s home structure vs Burnley’s limited attack.

Man City 1–1 Arsenal
Top-of-the-table clash — tight, tactical, low margin.

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Monday 20 April

Crystal Palace 1–1 West Ham
Very even profiles — draw fits both sides’ trends.

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Tuesday 21 April

Brighton 2–1 Chelsea
Brighton’s attacking consistency should pay off here.

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Wednesday 22 April

Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds
Two DGW sides → open, high-event game.

Burnley 0–3 Man City
Clear mismatch, especially with City chasing the title.

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FISO Predictions Table

Fixture	Score	Confidence
Brentford vs Fulham	2–1	Medium
Leeds vs Wolves	2–0	High
Newcastle vs Bournemouth	1–2	Medium
Tottenham vs Brighton	1–2	Medium
Chelsea vs Man Utd	1–1	Low
Aston Villa vs Sunderland	2–1	Medium
Everton vs Liverpool	1–2	Medium
Nott’m Forest vs Burnley	1–0	Medium
Man City vs Arsenal	1–1	Low
Crystal Palace vs West Ham	1–1	Low
Brighton vs Chelsea	2–1	Medium
Bournemouth vs Leeds	2–2	Medium
Burnley vs Man City	0–3	High

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Final Thoughts

DGW33 is a week where you can expect swings, surprises, and big scorelines — especially involving the double gameweek sides.

👉 Check back on FISO after the matches for our review and GW34 preview

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Below we try to predict the EPL scores for GW31 using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!

Gameweek 31 offers a moment of clarity in the Premier League season. With the Carabao Cup Final removing Arsenal and Manchester City, and an international break immediately after, we get a round with a little less rotation, fatigue and European prioritisation now that only 2 EPL clubs remain in the UCL.

That means this week leans heavily on:

• ✅ Last 10 form
• ✅ Home vs Away strength
• ✅ Underlying scoring patterns
• ✅ Scoreline probability matrix (630-match model logic applied)

The result is a tighter cluster of realistic scorelines, with probabilities helping differentiate between close calls like 2–1 vs 2–0.

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🔢 GW31 Predictions Table (with Probabilities)

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence	Most Likely Score Probability
Bournemouth vs Man United	1–2	Medium–High	22%
Brighton vs Liverpool	1–2	Medium	21%
Fulham vs Burnley	2–0	High	22%
Everton vs Chelsea	1–1	Medium	22%
Leeds vs Brentford	1–2	Medium–High	22%
Newcastle vs Sunderland	2–1	Medium	20%
Aston Villa vs West Ham	1–1	Medium	22%
Tottenham vs Nottm Forest	2–1	Medium	21%

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🔍 Match-by-Match Analysis

Bournemouth vs Manchester United

Manchester United remain top of the last-10 form table, and while Bournemouth (who’ve now had 4 draws in a row) are competitive at home, they lack the defensive consistency to contain United over 90 minutes. The model places this firmly in the “slight away edge” band, where 1–2 is the most common outcome (~22%).

👉 Prediction: 1–2

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Brighton vs Liverpool

Brighton’s home strength keeps this competitive, but Liverpool’s attacking consistency (demonstrated when putting 4 past Galatasaray in the UCL at Anfield yesterday) and underlying numbers give them the edge. Again this falls into a narrow away-edge band, where 1–2 slightly edges 0–1 due to both sides’ scoring profiles and both doing well in the form table.

👉 Prediction: 1–2

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Fulham vs Burnley

One of the clearest mismatches of the week when looking at the Home Form and Away Form tables.

• Fulham strong at home
• Burnley weak defensively
• Low attacking threat from Burnley

This lands in the strong home edge bracket, where 2–0 (~22%) is the most likely scoreline.

👉 Prediction: 2–0

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Everton vs Chelsea

A fascinating balance as, whilst Everton and Chelsea have similar overall results in the last 10, most points have been achieved by both clubs Away from home.

• Chelsea = high attacking output, high BTTS profile
• Everton = strong away side, but less dominant at home

This is a close call between an “even game” and a “close away win” but:

👉 1–1 is the single most common EPL result (~22%)

👉 Prediction: 1–1

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Leeds vs Brentford

Brentford’s away form remains one of the strongest signals in our dataset as they sit joint top of the Away form table (whilst Leeds are bottom half of the Home form table)

Leeds:

• concede regularly
• struggle to control games

This sits firmly in away-edge territory, where 1–2 is the standout scoreline (~22%).

👉 Prediction: 1–2

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Newcastle vs Sunderland (Derby)

Pure data from the form tables suggests a comfortable Newcastle win despite their midweek efforts via Barcelona.

But:

• Derby dynamics increase variance
• These games rarely follow clean statistical patterns

So instead of 2–0 (model default), we shift to 2–1 (~20%), which better reflects derby volatility.

👉 Prediction: 2–1

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Aston Villa vs West Ham

Two very similar sides now that Villa have lost their last 3:

• Mid-table form
• Inconsistent attacking output
• Neither dominant defensively

This lands squarely in the even band, making:

👉 1–1 (~22%) the standout probability

👉 Prediction: 1–1

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Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest

Tottenham’s home form is surprisingly poor, but their attacking output still gives them an edge although they have only taken 3 points from their last 10 matches. But UCL distraction is now gone (after their 5-7 aggregate loss to Atletico Madrid) and the new manager, after a very uncomfortable start, could be making an impression to ensure Spurs don’t slip into a relegation place.

Forest who sit 2nd bottom of the last 5 form table (Spurs are last – so this match may not be pretty to watch) are:

• capable of scoring
• unreliable defensively

This pushes the game into a BTTS-influenced home edge, where 2–1 (~21%) becomes the most logical call.

👉 Prediction: 2–1

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📊 GW31 Outcome Profile

• Home wins: 3
• Draws: 2
• Away wins: 3

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Gameweek 30 arrives with an unusual tactical backdrop. An incredible 6 Premier League sides are involved in the Champions League knockout second legs next week, and the level of jeopardy in those ties may influence selection and intensity in the league this weekend.

• Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle are still alive in their ties, meaning rotation or cautious minutes management could appear in GW30.
• Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham, having lost their first legs heavily (all by 3 goals), are more likely to prioritise the league.

Using our model principles — last-10 form, home/away form, and xG signals from the last two rounds — below are the projected outcomes. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!

GW30 Predictions Table

Fixture	Model Score	Notes

Burnley vs Bournemouth

1–1

Two weak attacks

Sunderland vs Brighton

1–2

Brighton slight quality edge

Arsenal vs Everton

2–1

Everton strong away but Arsenal home strength

Chelsea vs Newcastle

2–1

Chelsea attacking well, Newcastle UCL distraction

West Ham vs Man City

1–2

City control but West Ham score at home

Crystal Palace vs Leeds

1–1

Very balanced matchup

Man Utd vs Aston Villa

2–1

United elite home form

Nottingham Forest vs Fulham

1–1

Forest poor but Fulham inconsistent

Liverpool vs Tottenham

2–1

Home advantage dominates despite UCL distraction

Brentford vs Wolves

2–0

Wolves worst away form

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Match-by-Match Analysis

Burnley vs Bournemouth

Burnley remain one of the weakest sides in both the last-10 form table and home form metrics. Bournemouth, however, have struggled to convert chances recently. With both sides inconsistent defensively, this has the feel of a balanced lower-midtable contest.

Prediction: Burnley 1–1 Bournemouth

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Sunderland vs Brighton

Brighton’s away form is poor overall, but Sunderland have struggled to generate goals in recent weeks. Brighton’s possession style usually produces enough chances against teams in the bottom half.

Prediction: Sunderland 1–2 Brighton

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Arsenal vs Everton

Arsenal are second in the last-10 form table and strong at home, but Everton arrive with the best away form in the league over the last six matches. Arsenal may also have an eye on their Champions League second leg.

Still, the Emirates advantage should be enough.

Prediction: Arsenal 2–1 Everton

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Chelsea vs Newcastle

Chelsea’s attacking output over the last 10 matches has been strong (21 goals). Newcastle are inconsistent away from home and could be influenced by their European tie.

Chelsea’s freedom from Champions League pressure could show.

Prediction: Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle

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West Ham vs Man City

City remain unbeaten in their last six away matches and continue to generate strong xG numbers. West Ham can be competitive at home but tend to concede against elite sides.

Prediction: West Ham 1–2 Man City

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Crystal Palace vs Leeds

Both teams sit mid-table in form metrics and neither defence is particularly reliable. Palace’s home edge may balance Leeds’ ability to nick goals on the counter.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1–1 Leeds

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Man United vs Aston Villa

United top both the home form table and the last-10 form standings. Villa remain dangerous but their away performances have dipped recently.

United’s defensive record at Old Trafford suggests they should edge this.

Prediction: Man United 2–1 Aston Villa

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Nottingham Forest vs Fulham

Forest are struggling badly at home (no wins in their last six). Fulham have produced strong attacking numbers but remain inconsistent on the road.

This looks like one of the most draw-leaning fixtures of the round.

Prediction: Forest 1–1 Fulham

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Liverpool vs Tottenham

This is the most volatile match of the week. Tottenham’s form is extremely poor, but they remain capable of scoring. Liverpool may also rotate slightly ahead of their Champions League tie.

Goals look likely.

Prediction: Liverpool 2–1 Tottenham

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Brentford vs Wolves

Brentford are one of the best away teams in the league and solid at home too. Wolves remain bottom of the away-form metrics and struggle to create chances.

Brentford should control this one.

Prediction: Brentford 2–0 Wolves

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Key Statistical Angles This Week

Best Home Edge:

• Man United vs Villa

Strongest Away Side:

• Man City at West Ham

Most Likely Draws:

• Burnley vs Bournemouth
• Forest vs Fulham
• Palace vs Leeds

Most Open Match:

• Liverpool vs Tottenham

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✅ Model Lean Summary

• Home wins: 5
• Draws: 3
• Away wins: 2

FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.

GW28 (7 correct scores including 2 exact for us out of the 10 matches) was a classic mix of “xG told the truth” (Man Utd, Fulham) and “scoreline ran away from the chance quality” (Liverpool–West Ham was wild given the xG was basically level; Wolves beat Villa despite lower xG but then it was a derby). With no major midweek distractions beyond GW29 itself other than approaching FA Cup matches, this is mostly about fatigue/rotation risk and how teams respond to GW28’s finishing swings. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.

Quick GW28 xG notes feeding into GW29

• Liverpool 5–2 West Ham → scoreline was way more dramatic than the chance gap.
• Wolves 2–0 Villa → Wolves “clinical / Villa wasteful” flag.
• Burnley 3–4 Brentford → Brentford created the better chances again.
• Leeds 0–1 Man City → Leeds still produced, City controlled enough.

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GW29 predicted scores

Date	Fixture	Predicted score	Confidence
Tue 3 Mar	Bournemouth vs Brentford	1–2	Medium
Tue 3 Mar	Everton vs Burnley	2–1	Medium
Tue 3 Mar	Leeds vs Sunderland	2–1	Medium
Tue 3 Mar	Wolves vs Liverpool	1–2	Medium
Wed 4 Mar	Aston Villa vs Chelsea	1–1	Medium
Wed 4 Mar	Brighton vs Arsenal	1–2	Medium
Wed 4 Mar	Fulham vs West Ham	2–1	Medium
Wed 4 Mar	Man City vs Nottm Forest	3–0	High
Wed 4 Mar	Newcastle vs Man Utd	1–1	Medium
Thu 5 Mar	Tottenham vs Crystal Palace	1–1	Medium

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Match-by-match reasoning (tight turnaround edition)

Bournemouth vs Brentford (1–2)

Brentford’s chance creation stayed strong in GW28 (2+ xG away at Burnley) and Bournemouth/Sunderland (1–1) looked fairly even on xG. Brentford edge it if they carry any of that attacking momentum.

Everton vs Burnley (2–1)

Everton just won 3–2 at Newcastle and deserved it on xG. Burnley conceded 4 again and also gave up 2+ xG. Feels like Everton can get on the scoresheet twice.

Leeds vs Sunderland (2–1)

Leeds lost 0–1 to City but still posted 1+ xG — that’s the sort of “didn’t score but created” profile that often flips next match. Sunderland were competitive at Bournemouth (1+ away xG), so I’m not calling it comfy — but Leeds at home.

Wolves vs Liverpool (1–2)

Wolves beat Villa 2–0 despite losing the xG, which is exactly the kind of result that can get over-read and a typical derby. Liverpool’s 5 goals last week came from ~2 xG, so I’m not going mega here — but they’ve got enough to win by one (or two).

Aston Villa vs Chelsea (1–1)

Villa “lost the scoreboard, not the chances” at Wolves (slightly higher xG). Chelsea were competitive at Arsenal on xG. With fatigue and both sides capable of sloppy spells, a draw fits.

Brighton vs Arsenal (1–2)

Brighton did what they needed vs Forest, but Arsenal keep finding ways to win tight matches. I’m expecting Arsenal to concede (Brighton usually create at home), but still edge it.

Fulham vs West Ham (2–1)

Fulham’s 2–1 over Spurs was backed by xG (2 v 1). West Ham just got hit for 5 in a match where the xG was basically even — which screams “don’t overreact”, but it still points to a leaky/chaotic game state. Fulham at home.

Man City vs Nottingham Forest (3–0)

City are the one team I’m comfortable going bigger on in a short-rest week: they got the job done at Leeds while generating 2 xG, and Forest didn’t create much in their loss to Brighton. Looks like a controlled City win + clean sheet.

Newcastle vs Man Utd (1–1)

Man Utd deserved their win over Palace on xG, but Newcastle at home is a different proposition. Newcastle lost to Everton while conceding 2 xG — so they can be got at — but I’m expecting this to land as a draw more often than not.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (1–1)

Spurs are struggling to put teams away and Palace’s attack hasn’t screamed “reliable goals” either (their xG at Man Utd was tiny although they did lose a player). Feels like a grindy, low-ceiling fixture.

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Best “leans” this week

• Most confident: Man City win (and City clean sheet)
• Most draw-ish fixtures: Villa–Chelsea, Newcastle–Man Utd, Spurs–Palace
• If you want a goals punt: Bournemouth–Brentford and Everton–Burnley look the most “open game” candidates

After a good GW27 predictions, another fascinating round ahead with plenty of narrative hooks: Wolves v Villa under the lights, Liverpool at home to struggling West Ham, and a proper Sunday blockbuster as Arsenal host Chelsea. Recent xG data continues to flag a few “due” teams (and a few riding their luck), while the form tables are starting to separate the genuine top-four contenders from the mid-table chaos merchants. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.

These predictions lean on:

• Last 10 league form
• Home form (last 6 home games)
• Away form (last 6 away games)
• Recent xG “unlucky / lucky” signals
• Historical result distribution (home wins 44%, draws 26%, away wins 30%)

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Wolves vs Aston Villa (Fri 27 Feb, 20:00)

Wolves continue to struggle badly in both home form and last-10 form, while Villa remain one of the more reliable away sides in this division. Villa’s underlying numbers remain solid even when results wobble.

Prediction: Wolves 0–2 Aston Villa
Confidence: Medium–High
Angle: Villa edge it without running riot – Wolves likely to sit deep.

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Bournemouth vs Sunderland (Sat 28 Feb, 12:30)

Two mid-table sides who tend to produce open games. Bournemouth’s home numbers are decent, Sunderland’s away form is fragile. Recent xG suggests Sunderland have not been creating enough.

Prediction: Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland
Confidence: Medium
Angle: Classic 2–1 home win territory.

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Burnley vs Brentford (Sat 28 Feb, 15:00)

Burnley remain poor at home and leak chances. Brentford’s away form is among the best in the league, and their attacking metrics remain strong.

Prediction: Burnley 0–2 Brentford
Confidence: High
Angle: One of the stronger away picks this week.

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Liverpool vs West Ham (Sat 28 Feb, 15:00)

Liverpool at Anfield is still a difficult assignment for anyone. West Ham’s away form and defensive numbers point to pressure and concession of chances.

Prediction: Liverpool 3–1 West Ham
Confidence: High
Angle: West Ham can nick one, but Liverpool’s attacking volume should tell.

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Newcastle vs Everton (Sat 28 Feb, 15:00)

Newcastle’s home form is solid without being explosive. Everton remain stubborn but limited going forward away from Goodison.

Prediction: Newcastle 2–1 Everton
Confidence: Medium
Angle: Tight, scrappy, one-goal margin.

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Leeds vs Manchester City (Sat 28 Feb, 17:30)

Leeds’ home form has been lively, but City’s underlying numbers remain elite. City’s recent xG profile suggests they’re still creating plenty even when not blowing teams away.

Prediction: Leeds 1–2 Manchester City
Confidence: Medium–High
Angle: City win without a landslide – Leeds competitive at Elland Road.

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Brighton vs Nottingham Forest (Sun 1 Mar, 14:00)

Brighton’s home form is mixed, Forest’s away form is weak. Forest tend to concede chances on the road.

Prediction: Brighton 2–0 Nottingham Forest
Confidence: Medium
Angle: Clean sheet potential for Brighton.

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Fulham vs Tottenham (Sun 1 Mar, 14:00)

Fulham are stronger at home than often given credit for. Spurs’ away numbers and last-10 form are patchy, with defensive leaks common.

Prediction: Fulham 2–1 Tottenham
Confidence: Medium
Angle: One of the better upset spots of the round.

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Manchester United vs Crystal Palace (Sun 1 Mar, 14:00)

United’s home form and last-10 form remain strong. Palace struggle badly away and have been underperforming their xG at times.

Prediction: Man United 2–0 Crystal Palace
Confidence: High
Angle: Controlled home win, Palace limited.

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Arsenal vs Chelsea (Sun 1 Mar, 16:30)

The headline fixture. Arsenal’s home form and last-10 form are elite. Chelsea remain dangerous in open games but are less reliable defensively away.

Prediction: Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
Confidence: Medium–High
Angle: Tight game, but Arsenal’s consistency edges it.

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✅ GW28 Predictions Table

Fixture	Score Prediction	Confidence
Wolves vs Aston Villa	0–2	Medium–High
Bournemouth vs Sunderland	2–1	Medium
Burnley vs Brentford	0–2	High
Liverpool vs West Ham	3–1	High
Newcastle vs Everton	2–1	Medium
Leeds vs Man City	1–2	Medium–High
Brighton vs Nottm Forest	2–0	Medium
Fulham vs Tottenham	2–1	Medium
Man United vs Crystal Palace	2–0	High
Arsenal vs Chelsea	2–1	Medium–High

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Patterns & Betting Angles This Week (FISO Takeaways)

• Strong Away Spots: Brentford, Aston Villa
• Clean Sheet Candidates: Man United, Brighton
• Upset Watch: Fulham vs Spurs
• High-Scoring Lean: Liverpool vs West Ham, Arsenal vs Chelsea
• Most “On-Trend” Scores: 2–1 and 2–0 again dominate the modelling