FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Below we try to predict the EPL scores for GW31 using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!
Gameweek 31 offers a moment of clarity in the Premier League season. With the Carabao Cup Final removing Arsenal and Manchester City, and an international break immediately after, we get a round with a little less rotation, fatigue and European prioritisation now that only 2 EPL clubs remain in the UCL.
That means this week leans heavily on:
- ✅ Last 10 form
- ✅ Home vs Away strength
- ✅ Underlying scoring patterns
- ✅ Scoreline probability matrix (630-match model logic applied)
The result is a tighter cluster of realistic scorelines, with probabilities helping differentiate between close calls like 2–1 vs 2–0.
🔢 GW31 Predictions Table (with Probabilities)
| Fixture | Score Prediction | Confidence | Most Likely Score Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth vs Man United | 1–2 | Medium–High | 22% |
| Brighton vs Liverpool | 1–2 | Medium | 21% |
| Fulham vs Burnley | 2–0 | High | 22% |
| Everton vs Chelsea | 1–1 | Medium | 22% |
| Leeds vs Brentford | 1–2 | Medium–High | 22% |
| Newcastle vs Sunderland | 2–1 | Medium | 20% |
| Aston Villa vs West Ham | 1–1 | Medium | 22% |
| Tottenham vs Nottm Forest | 2–1 | Medium | 21% |
🔍 Match-by-Match Analysis
Bournemouth vs Manchester United
Manchester United remain top of the last-10 form table, and while Bournemouth (who’ve now had 4 draws in a row) are competitive at home, they lack the defensive consistency to contain United over 90 minutes. The model places this firmly in the “slight away edge” band, where 1–2 is the most common outcome (~22%).
👉 Prediction: 1–2
Brighton vs Liverpool
Brighton’s home strength keeps this competitive, but Liverpool’s attacking consistency (demonstrated when putting 4 past Galatasaray in the UCL at Anfield yesterday) and underlying numbers give them the edge. Again this falls into a narrow away-edge band, where 1–2 slightly edges 0–1 due to both sides’ scoring profiles and both doing well in the form table.
👉 Prediction: 1–2
Fulham vs Burnley
One of the clearest mismatches of the week when looking at the Home Form and Away Form tables.
- Fulham strong at home
- Burnley weak defensively
- Low attacking threat from Burnley
This lands in the strong home edge bracket, where 2–0 (~22%) is the most likely scoreline.
👉 Prediction: 2–0
Everton vs Chelsea
A fascinating balance as, whilst Everton and Chelsea have similar overall results in the last 10, most points have been achieved by both clubs Away from home.
- Chelsea = high attacking output, high BTTS profile
- Everton = strong away side, but less dominant at home
This is a close call between an “even game” and a “close away win” but:
👉 1–1 is the single most common EPL result (~22%)
👉 Prediction: 1–1
Leeds vs Brentford
Brentford’s away form remains one of the strongest signals in our dataset as they sit joint top of the Away form table (whilst Leeds are bottom half of the Home form table)
Leeds:
- concede regularly
- struggle to control games
This sits firmly in away-edge territory, where 1–2 is the standout scoreline (~22%).
👉 Prediction: 1–2
Newcastle vs Sunderland (Derby)
Pure data from the form tables suggests a comfortable Newcastle win despite their midweek efforts via Barcelona.
But:
- Derby dynamics increase variance
- These games rarely follow clean statistical patterns
So instead of 2–0 (model default), we shift to 2–1 (~20%), which better reflects derby volatility.
👉 Prediction: 2–1
Aston Villa vs West Ham
Two very similar sides now that Villa have lost their last 3:
- Mid-table form
- Inconsistent attacking output
- Neither dominant defensively
This lands squarely in the even band, making:
👉 1–1 (~22%) the standout probability
👉 Prediction: 1–1
Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest
Tottenham’s home form is surprisingly poor, but their attacking output still gives them an edge although they have only taken 3 points from their last 10 matches. But UCL distraction is now gone (after their 5-7 aggregate loss to Atletico Madrid) and the new manager, after a very uncomfortable start, could be making an impression to ensure Spurs don’t slip into a relegation place.
Forest who sit 2nd bottom of the last 5 form table (Spurs are last – so this match may not be pretty to watch) are:
- capable of scoring
- unreliable defensively
This pushes the game into a BTTS-influenced home edge, where 2–1 (~21%) becomes the most logical call.
👉 Prediction: 2–1
📊 GW31 Outcome Profile
- Home wins: 3
- Draws: 2
- Away wins: 3
