GW28 (7 correct scores including 2 exact for us out of the 10 matches) was a classic mix of “xG told the truth” (Man Utd, Fulham) and “scoreline ran away from the chance quality” (Liverpool–West Ham was wild given the xG was basically level; Wolves beat Villa despite lower xG but then it was a derby). With no major midweek distractions beyond GW29 itself other than approaching FA Cup matches, this is mostly about fatigue/rotation risk and how teams respond to GW28’s finishing swings. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.
Quick GW28 xG notes feeding into GW29
- Liverpool 5–2 West Ham → scoreline was way more dramatic than the chance gap.
- Wolves 2–0 Villa → Wolves “clinical / Villa wasteful” flag.
- Burnley 3–4 Brentford → Brentford created the better chances again.
- Leeds 0–1 Man City → Leeds still produced, City controlled enough.
GW29 predicted scores
| Date | Fixture | Predicted score | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Mar | Bournemouth vs Brentford | 1–2 | Medium |
| Tue 3 Mar | Everton vs Burnley | 2–1 | Medium |
| Tue 3 Mar | Leeds vs Sunderland | 2–1 | Medium |
| Tue 3 Mar | Wolves vs Liverpool | 1–2 | Medium |
| Wed 4 Mar | Aston Villa vs Chelsea | 1–1 | Medium |
| Wed 4 Mar | Brighton vs Arsenal | 1–2 | Medium |
| Wed 4 Mar | Fulham vs West Ham | 2–1 | Medium |
| Wed 4 Mar | Man City vs Nottm Forest | 3–0 | High |
| Wed 4 Mar | Newcastle vs Man Utd | 1–1 | Medium |
| Thu 5 Mar | Tottenham vs Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Medium |
Match-by-match reasoning (tight turnaround edition)
Bournemouth vs Brentford (1–2)
Brentford’s chance creation stayed strong in GW28 (2+ xG away at Burnley) and Bournemouth/Sunderland (1–1) looked fairly even on xG. Brentford edge it if they carry any of that attacking momentum.
Everton vs Burnley (2–1)
Everton just won 3–2 at Newcastle and deserved it on xG. Burnley conceded 4 again and also gave up 2+ xG. Feels like Everton can get on the scoresheet twice.
Leeds vs Sunderland (2–1)
Leeds lost 0–1 to City but still posted 1+ xG — that’s the sort of “didn’t score but created” profile that often flips next match. Sunderland were competitive at Bournemouth (1+ away xG), so I’m not calling it comfy — but Leeds at home.
Wolves vs Liverpool (1–2)
Wolves beat Villa 2–0 despite losing the xG, which is exactly the kind of result that can get over-read and a typical derby. Liverpool’s 5 goals last week came from ~2 xG, so I’m not going mega here — but they’ve got enough to win by one (or two).
Aston Villa vs Chelsea (1–1)
Villa “lost the scoreboard, not the chances” at Wolves (slightly higher xG). Chelsea were competitive at Arsenal on xG. With fatigue and both sides capable of sloppy spells, a draw fits.
Brighton vs Arsenal (1–2)
Brighton did what they needed vs Forest, but Arsenal keep finding ways to win tight matches. I’m expecting Arsenal to concede (Brighton usually create at home), but still edge it.
Fulham vs West Ham (2–1)
Fulham’s 2–1 over Spurs was backed by xG (2 v 1). West Ham just got hit for 5 in a match where the xG was basically even — which screams “don’t overreact”, but it still points to a leaky/chaotic game state. Fulham at home.
Man City vs Nottingham Forest (3–0)
City are the one team I’m comfortable going bigger on in a short-rest week: they got the job done at Leeds while generating 2 xG, and Forest didn’t create much in their loss to Brighton. Looks like a controlled City win + clean sheet.
Newcastle vs Man Utd (1–1)
Man Utd deserved their win over Palace on xG, but Newcastle at home is a different proposition. Newcastle lost to Everton while conceding 2 xG — so they can be got at — but I’m expecting this to land as a draw more often than not.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (1–1)
Spurs are struggling to put teams away and Palace’s attack hasn’t screamed “reliable goals” either (their xG at Man Utd was tiny although they did lose a player). Feels like a grindy, low-ceiling fixture.
Best “leans” this week
- Most confident: Man City win (and City clean sheet)
- Most draw-ish fixtures: Villa–Chelsea, Newcastle–Man Utd, Spurs–Palace
- If you want a goals punt: Bournemouth–Brentford and Everton–Burnley look the most “open game” candidates