FPL Season 2019/2020 – Gameweek 11 Preview

“Can the home game against Wolves this weekend improve the apparent negative atmosphere at the Emirates stadium?” (CC by 2.0). Image by Nazmi Amin-Tai

Unfortunately for Southampton and anyone with even the most remote sympathy for the Saints, for years to come, gameweek 10 of the 2019-20 Premier League campaign will be remembered as the round in which Leicester came, saw and beat them 0-9 at their own Saint Mary’s. Both in terms of Premier League news and FPL results, this result naturally dominated the rest of the weekend, but there was more. City did the job at home by comfortably beating Villa, though the VAR caused some upsets in the FPL community, Chelsea’s purple patch continued with a 2-4 victory at Turf Moore, courtesy of a Pulisic hat-trick, and Liverpool booked a hard-fought victory over Spurs, thanks to a second-half penalty from Mo Salah.

As far as this weekend is concerned, it’s promising to be another unpredictable, exciting and probably heartbreaking gameweek, with most of the Premier League teams dealing with mid-week League Cup obligations. We’re obviously taking this into account when picking our recommendations for gameweek 11 and when jotting down the starting lineups for the top five in our Lineup Predictions piece tomorrow for this weekend, but we definitely recommend to have a further look as well.

Finally, don’t forget that the deadline for gameweek 11 is set at 11h30 (GMT+0) on Saturday, November 2nd.  .

How did our picks for the previous gameweek fare?

Premium Raheem Sterling Aston Villa (H) 11
Premium Sergio Aguero Aston Villa (H) 1
Premium (extra) Kevin de Bruyne Aston villa (H) 6
Non-premium Marcus Rashford Norwich (a) 9
Non-premium Ryan Fredericks Sheffield (H) 0
Differential Chris Wood Chelsea (H) 0
Differential Callum Hudson-Odoi Burnley (a) 0
Captain Raheem Sterling Aston Villa (H) 22

Premium picks

Sometimes in FPL, or maybe many times, you need to stick to your guns and the gun we’re sticking to is Man City’s Raheem Sterling (£12.1m). Football is far from just stats, but the stats for his match-up with Southampton at home are just too enticing to not select him as our first premium pick for gameweek 11. To start with, he’s in good form. The English international scored a goal and took all three bonus points against Villa last weekend. He has taken the most shots in the box out of all players in the league (30), the third-most shots on target (12, behind Salah and McGinn) and only his teammate De Bruyne has created more big chances than him. Furthermore, City won this fixture 6-1 last season, with Sterling scoring two and assisting two, and the Saints have conceded six goals in five away games so far this season. Mid-week, a Sterling-less City beat Southampton 3-1 to reach the League Cup quarter-finals. Finally, the Saints conceded nine against Leicester last weekend, in front of their own crowd albeit after having a man sent-off early on. We think we’ve made our point.

We actually wanted to recommend De Bruyne or Aguero next, but seeing as we tripled up on City assets for our premium picks last weekend, we’ve chosen to diversify a bit. With Liverpool visiting an Aston Villa side that have so far conceded an average of almost 19 shots per game, more than any other side in the league, Mo Salah and Sadio Mané (£11.9m) are as good as any shout for a haul this weekend. Despite Salah owning penalties for the Reds, we’ve gone with the Senegalese powerhouse who won the decisive penalty in last weekend’s clash with Spurs. Liverpool have scored 9 goals in five away games this season and Mané was directly involved in three of them (2 goals, 1 assist). Villa have not fared badly at all in home games until now, taking eight points from five games, but the Reds just seem unable to lose in the Premier League these days. They might not be as free-scoring as their main rivals City, but it’s hard to imagine them not netting at Villa Park and when they do, Sadio Mané will very likely be involved and should play the full 90 minutes whereas Salah’s sore ankle may see him depart before the end again.

Non-premium picks

Picking just one premium asset from Pep Guardiola’s goal machine doesn’t mean that we’re now no longer looking at City assets for gameweek 11. That’s because they don’t only boast some of the best expensive players in the official game, but also one of the best, if not the best, non-premium asset. Playmaker David Silva (£7.7m) announced his coming-summer departure from the blue Manchester club at the start of this season, but he seems determined to make one final, devastating impression on English football this season. His 60 FPL points make him the fifth-highest scoring midfielder in the game, courtesy of 3 goals and 5 assists from eight starts in the Premier League. Only Sterling started more games for City this season and Silva’s current 7.8 FPL points per million is beaten by none in the official game. When starting, the Spaniard has been involved in 36% of all goals scored at home by Pep’s men and he was rested for the mid-week League Cup encounter with Southampton. So, statistically speaking, if you feel City can put at least three goals past the Saints on Saturday, David Silva will be involved in at least one.

After a slow start while Frank Lampard was still figuring out who his starting number nine was going to be, Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham (£7.8m) entered an incredible run of 7 goals in three games between gameweeks 3 and 5. Since then, his direct goal involvement has returned to a less productive, but presumably more sustainable level, with a goal and an assist in his last five games, resulting in 19 FPL points. This might sound a bit disappointing, but don’t forget that his price tag is still below £8.0m. After visiting the league’s current bottom team Watford this weekend, the Blues have three home games in their next four fixtures (Palace, West Ham and Villa). The only away game takes place at Man City’s Etihad stadium in gameweek 13. Abraham only failed to record attacking returns in one away game this season, all the way back in gameweek 1 when he played 65 minutes, and we don’t think the visit to Vicarage Road will end up being the second time. Chelsea have scored no less than 16 goals in five away games so far, while Watford have conceded 8 goals in 5 home games, so expect Abraham to get his chances on Saturday.

A differential pick or two

We know, Leicester booked the biggest away win in all of Premier League history last weekend and we haven’t recommened a Leicester asset yet. That’s not because the likes of Maddison, Vardy and Tielemans are not good shouts, but because they are visiting a remarkably solid Crystal Palace this weekend. Roy Hodgson’s men are just no push-overs, but one thing they struggle at is scoring goals. In five home games so far, the Eagles have netted just four times, which is why we’re adding a touch of Leicester to this week’s selection by recommending left-back Ben Chilwell (£5.5m) as a differential pick (owned by just 8.4% of FPL managers). Don’t expect the Englishman to replicate his 19-point haul from last weekend, but a clean sheet is definitely on the cards and an assist might be as well. He already has 5 to his name, including 2 from last weekend’s demolition of Southampton. He’s a decent shout for this round, has a good run of fixtures coming up, and costs £0.8m less than his more popular colleague at right-back Ricardo Pereira.

Our second differential pick and the final recommendation for gameweek 11 is last season’s Premier League and FPL revelation Raul Jimenez (£7.2m). The Wolves striker has had a definitely slower start to this season, in big part due to Wolves’ lesser form in the early weeks and their Europa League obligations, but he still has 3 goals, 2 assists and 43 FPL points to his name. The Mexican striker did not return anything against Newcastle last weekend, but he scored a goal a week earlier against Southampton and the week before that, he brought his owners 10 points, courtesy of two assists away at City. This weekend, Wolves are visiting an Arsenal who, from the outside, seem a bit troubled. The Gunners conceded 2 goals at home against Palace in gameweek 10, even though the Eagles are one of the least-prolific sides in the league at the moment. Their 10 ‘goals scored’ only stand above Watford, Newcastle, Sheffield and Southampton. Arsenal have conceded 7 goals in five home games so far, and 14 goals overall as Emery looks unable to find a more or less fixed set-up to provide some much-needed solidity in the back. Jimenez and Wolves are a punt for this one, but we believe it could pay off and Wolves do tend to have better results against the better sides.

For further GW11 transfer ideas look at this fiso FPL forum topic.

Looking at the FPL GW Transfers In/out Stats:

Attackers – Managers are mainly selling Pukki, Aguero, Aubameyang & Callum Wilson and buying Vardy (2 price rises already this GW after almost 0.5m purchases), Abraham and Rashford (who started in the Caraboa Cup at Chelsea midweek, scored 2 goals and was subbed with a knock). Aguero sellers have decided to bite the bullet after he again did not start but both Aguero and Jesus started in the Caraboa Cup tie v Southampton on Tuesday so maybe Aguero’s in line for a start at the weekend?

Midfielders – Cantwell, Marhez & Salah are the biggest sold and the money instead is being used on buying Perez, KDB, Tielemans, Pulisic & D Silva.

Defenders – van Dijk (suffered a dead leg), Digne (maybe he’ll bounce back from his late OG?), and then two long-term injured players Boly & Zinchenko along with MC’s Otamendi & Walker & Liverpool’s TAA. So again Man City and Liv make up most of the sold defenders. The money is then being spent on Chilwell, Lundstram (cheap and playing in midfield) & Leicester’s Pereira.

Goalkeepers – Adrian again is most sold followed by Wolves’ Patricio & Everton’s Pickford. A mixture of GKs are coming in: Henderson, Gazzaniga (Spurs), Ederson, Schmeichel and Alisson the most bought.

The captaincy

As far as the captaincy goes for gameweek 11, our eyes are on the two top teams, Liverpool and especially Man City. The former visit Aston Villa, while the latter host a battered Southampton side who already lost to the Cityzens mid-week in the League Cup (3-1). Any of Raheem Sterling, Kevin de Bruyne, Sergio Aguero, Mo Salah and Sadio Mané could haul big this weekend, while the likes of David Silva and Roberto Firmino might very well turn up as well. Based on current form, certainty of starting, and historical performance, we’re putting the armband on Sterling, but any of these picks is as safe as a pick can get in this crazy game.

The FISO Forum GW11 FPL Captain Poll puts the armband between two players: Sterling and KDB.

Finally if you like FPL but want to have a go at a weekly FPL type competition for prizes then have a look at FanTeam’s 50,000 euro weekly monster. There are freerolls for new entrants if registered within the last 8 weeks. New FanTeam users registered through this link can also claim a free 2 euro ticket for the 2 euro Weekly Monster (let us know your FanTeam username to claim the free ticket).