Tortoises, Gold Dust and Transfers......

[murf]

Having transfers in the bag is rather pointless if they don't turn into points.

Transfers are like gold dust but points ARE gold dust.

Page 1. Post 1. Cliche 1.

The tortoise beat the hare by employing an even pace NOT a sprint finish. Many don't get that simple fact, hence starting this thread all those years ago.

[blahblah]

As an aside to this....

People go on about "points gain per transfer", but isn't the timing of them relevant?

I would have thought the idea would be to stay\get in contention with enough transfers left for those (relatively few, but crucial) late points? Isn't the Cup final before the last league game, again, so possibly minimising the advantage available from the Cup Final? (Weren't there League games played on that weekend last season?)

What defines contention, is a different question, though?

[Spencer4]

I made the mistake last year of holding on to mine too long and then didn't make any gains in the last 6 weeks.

This year I'm happily making changes and not stressing too much. I've used 4-7 in all my teams and am happy with that.

[shogun]

Every year, i say i will hug the tortoise, but i the transfer button is too tempting and a burn them like rubber. My starting 11 in half my teams are doing better than transfered ones. But could you blame me this year? I had half the arsenal team in two of my teams, for the first few weeks, i had to make transfers to get out of negativity.
Perhaps rule of thumb, don't use transfers in first month unless you have injuries.

[kevchenko]

My best placed team is on 478 points in 9816 with 29 transfers remaining... I have however been stubborn with Malouda and resisted temptation to switch to Mata some weeks ago.... I did however keep faith with RVP and my one transfer was Drogba Rooney during which time he has picked up 57 points.... It's a 3-5-2 with one midfielder scoring consistently well and the other 3 picking up a few bits and pieces here and there... Malouda aside the rest of the team have been playing most of the time and not many defensive points picked up in recent weeks... Value is close to the limit of 49.9....
I am patiently waiting for those 3-0's to hopefully come along but in reading this thread again have certainly embraced Malouda too long...... So with 4.8 to spend what post international break advise would be forthcoming for my 2nd transfer usage

[swiss]

My best placed team is on 478 points in 9816 with 29 transfers remaining... I have however been stubborn with Malouda and resisted temptation to switch to Mata some weeks ago.... I did however keep faith with RVP and my one transfer was Drogba Rooney during which time he has picked up 57 points.... It's a 3-5-2 with one midfielder scoring consistently well and the other 3 picking up a few bits and pieces here and there... Malouda aside the rest of the team have been playing most of the time and not many defensive points picked up in recent weeks... Value is close to the limit of 49.9....
I am patiently waiting for those 3-0's to hopefully come along but in reading this thread again have certainly embraced Malouda too long...... So with 4.8 to spend what post international break advise would be forthcoming for my 2nd transfer usage

You already know that answer. 4 letters, starts with M and ends in A and the first three letters rhyme with cat.

[JackieChin]

Ramsey or Bale would be my pick, although Mata is in less teams than Bale so could be the way to go

[kevchenko]

Ramsey or Bale would be my pick, although Mata is in less teams than Bale so could be the way to go

Bale is not a bad shout as Spurs play Monday night so might get an extra "Malouda point" on Sunday
Just a bit concerned I may have missed that particular bandwagon with his recent form....

[JackieChin]

Im surprised Malouda hasnt played more but Bale would be a good replacement. He's only had 2 decent games so now could be the time to jump on! VDV has been transferred in more over the past 7 days but only slightly. Im seriously considering putting Bale in although I need to be careful with transfers!

[Inglebongas]

I have always felt the tortoise and the hare has nothing to do with steady pace.... the hare quite clearly was a cocky git who, if he'd had a modicum of sense, should have won by a country mile.... the tortoise never had superiority in pace terms...he was just up against a fool.... be a sensible hare and it's no contest....burn them transfers...just make the right ones....now which would they be?

[sted]

I'm finding myself hoarding transfers this season at the detriment to my teams.

I think the super 20s comp/ divisional comp has something to do with this. A lot of teams in the 20,000-180,000 I'm basically sitting on and hoping to have a run at these comps in the new year where in seasons gone by, I'd be trying to make up ground on the leaders.

It's a conundrum though. A team in (say) 100,000th position is quite safe there and needs no transfers to allow you to be in division 4 or 5 come January. However, if the same team needs tweaking to get into the top 4 of your super 20s comp, a dilemma is created.

I can't help feeling that the whole TFF experience this year has changed regarding transfer usage.

[Jack72]

My highest place team has 25 transfers left and baring any injuries, won't be using any more. My season will kick off again at the beginning of feb.

[happyhoppy]

What do we think the formulae gives ? 13 ?

I reckon 15-16 feels about right, although it's always nice to have more.

My best placed in 362th still has 20.

[murf]

What do we think the formulae gives ? 13 ?

I reckon 15-16 feels about right, although it's always nice to have more.

My best placed in 362th still has 20.

My best placed still has >20. I've kick started my hare since xmas but it still feels like I'm tinkering!

[ShadyOne]

What do we think the formulae gives ? 13 ?

I reckon 15-16 feels about right, although it's always nice to have more.

My best placed in 362th still has 20.

I reckon 12.5 after tonights games is par for the course. Obviously the more you have, the more I'm jealous of you.

[Hogmeister]

The formula gives 12.19 to be exact (I have it plugged into my TFF teams spreadsheet, as a sort of cross-check).

The formula seems to be based on using more transfers early than is now normally recommended on FISO.

My teams currently vary from 10-18 left, with an average of 15.

[GazzaB]

Where do I get my hands on this formula?

[bluenosey]

I'm averaging about 18/19 left and that's after splashing out on Sunderland tonight.

[SamD]

@ GazzaB:

The original (and over-complex) draft formula was posted in the following topic in late 2005:
use-of-transfers-t664.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Submitted further theories in same thread (Jan 2006) that were based, pro rata, on TFF weeks and total fixtures.

But, to be frank, now tend to go with this simpler transfer guide:

• use two each month between Aug and Dec
  use four monthly from Jan to May.

Good luck, whatever method you subscribe to...

[GazzaB]

Thanks Sam, much obliged.

[rossn13]

Where do I get my hands on this formula?

Use this if you want

=30-(IF((TODAY()-"2/1/2012")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"28/8/2011")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"9/4/2012")>0,4,0))-((TODAY()-"13/8/2011")/(("13/5/2012"-"13/8/2011")/13)+(TODAY()-"13/8/2011")/(("13/5/2012"-"13/8/2011")/9))

[tommymooney]

so, how many have we got now? Sam's rule of thumb suggests 20'ish?

[rossn13]

*removing false info*

[murf]

so, how many have we got now? Sam's rule of thumb suggests 20'ish?

A very rough editting of he formula in the post above (only changed years) gives 16.6 but if you tweak the data to tomorrow it goes to 14.6 (using 2 at 'new year'??)



=30-(IF((TODAY()-"2/1/2013")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"28/8/2012")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"9/4/2013")>0,4,0))-((TODAY()-"13/8/2012")/(("13/5/2013"-"13/8/2012")/13)+(TODAY()-"13/8/2012")/(("13/5/2013"-"13/8/2012")/9))

[rossn13]

so, how many have we got now? Sam's rule of thumb suggests 20'ish?

A very rough editting of he formula in the post above (only changed years) gives 16.6 but if you tweak the data to tomorrow it goes to 14.6 (using 2 at 'new year'??)



=30-(IF((TODAY()-"2/1/2013")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"28/8/2012")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"9/4/2013")>0,4,0))-((TODAY()-"13/8/2012")/(("13/5/2013"-"13/8/2012")/13)+(TODAY()-"13/8/2012")/(("13/5/2013"-"13/8/2012")/9))

The first date should be after the 3rd round FA Cup ties in accordance to point 3...
Try changing 2/1/2013 to 8/1/2013

3) In January, remove players from clubs knocked out of FA Cup in third or fourth round; else bring in some whose sides are still competing after fourth round; estimate two transfers.

[murf]

Being bored I've expanded it slightly so it spreads the transfers across all the periods (e.g. start Jan with two then lose 2/31 a day til the 31st)

gold dust.JPG

[happyhoppy]

18-20 has been considered the target going into the new year. I try and work to 2 a month to the new year then 4-5 a month. Simples.

[rossn13]

Nice work murf.

Here's the other formula updated for this season.

=30-(IF((TODAY()-"8/1/2013")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"3/9/2012")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"13/4/2013")>0,4,0))-((TODAY()-"18/8/2012")/(("19/5/2013"-"18/8/2012")/13)+(TODAY()-"18/8/2012")/(("19/5/2013"-"18/8/2012")/9))

Explanation...

=30-(IF((TODAY()-"The day after the 3rd round FA Cup ties")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"Day the September International break starts")>0,2,0)+IF((TODAY()-"Day before the first FA Cup Semi Final")>0,4,0))-((TODAY()-"First day of the season")/(("Last day of the season"-"First day of the season")/13)+(TODAY()-"First day of the season")/(("Last day of the season"-"First day of the season")/9))

[murf]

Nice work murf

Just trying to justify to myself my failing to carry over 20 transfers into the new year in most teams

[tommymooney]

Thanks, worth bumping the thread for

If you are playing a goals team, like my single team effort, and therefore aren't transferring keeper or defenders no matter what, does that change the equation?