GW1 lessons learned

[jimmy ching]

It's not the advice that counts on Fiso, it's the keeping of your interest going. It's been great getting intro-ed in to other sports, it teaches you an overall tactic of how to compete. Thank you everybody for your contributions. And I'll keep playing.

[blahblah]

re models etc: I'm new to them tbh, so it could be interesting how accurate they are, but I'll need more than a number to transfer a player in or out.

re Son + Kane: going that heavy on 1 club is dodgy in 1 GW, and arguably GW1 is the worst to do it. I've been burned with Liverpool defenders before so aomed to pick 6 different Clubs atb (but doubled up on Citeh). The bod almost threw a full on Elton John hissy-fit about something not being fair. Yeah it was the same when Pukki scored at Anfield

I'm finding some of them quite comical (Mitrovic scored twice vs Lpool, imagine what he'll do in easier fixtures whooooo - yep he'll blank ) but heard some interesting bits.....

Hopefully next week I'll narrow down the YouTube bits I listen to.

Use them, listen to them. They have many sheep. Use it to your advantage.

But you're a pig?

[jimmy ching]

re models etc: I'm new to them tbh, so it could be interesting how accurate they are, but I'll need more than a number to transfer a player in or out.

re Son + Kane: going that heavy on 1 club is dodgy in 1 GW, and arguably GW1 is the worst to do it. I've been burned with Liverpool defenders before so aomed to pick 6 different Clubs atb (but doubled up on Citeh). The bod almost threw a full on Elton John hissy-fit about something not being fair. Yeah it was the same when Pukki scored at Anfield

I'm finding some of them quite comical (Mitrovic scored twice vs Lpool, imagine what he'll do in easier fixtures whooooo - yep he'll blank ) but heard some interesting bits.....

Hopefully next week I'll narrow down the YouTube bits I listen to.

Use them, listen to them. They have many sheep. Use it to your advantage.

But you're a pig?

Oink, oink. Exactly.

[blahblah]

Are pigs better than sheep at FPL?

[TheRumourMill]

With 20-20 hindsight of course, things (as ever) look rather different.

I make no bones about it, I got lucky - I think it was genuinely a 50-50 call and I only decided on Haaland on the Friday.

Mark Sutherns seemed to get a bit of a mauling on social media over the Spurs picks (going by the FFS BlackBox podcast), seems like Twitter FPL is turning into US politics where there can be no middle ground and you're either a genius or an idiot. Of course it's not true either way and a single FPL player score is largely down to luck at the end of the day.

What struck me was that most models seemed to suggest Kane being the better pick over Haaland, so if the savagery came from picking Son over Salah pick (which models didn't support) then why was *everyone* not on Kane alongside Salah or why was Mark not praised for making that pick? I don't really understand why there's no irony in apparently being scolded for ignoring the models (and ignoring Salah) when one must also have ignored the models to go Haaland over Kane.

Seems like a few people on social media just need to chill tf out and understand that they are at the mercy of luck more so than skill in these kinds of situations.

I think the savagery was because over a 5 week prediction period Salah was predicted 9 more points than Son and that's without even taking captaincy into consideration, which would stretch that to 15-20 points. That goes beyond a 50:50 call or hoping for positive variance to give you an advantage over the herd and is more into the realms of wishful thinking. By contrast Kane and Haaland had much closer points predictions over both a 5 week period (marginally in favour of Haaland) and also in GW1 (marginally in favour of Kane).

He also kept saying on various video's how he was using the 1m saved by going Son elsewhere in his team. He appears to have used the million to turn Leon Bailey into Brennan Johnson. Now than may well work out but on the face of it, it doesn't appear to me to be the best way to spend that money.

He was undoubtedly unlucky, and to be honest I think a large reason he posted is because he had a bad gameweek. I do wonder if he had scored 90 points or something there would have been a post about how models can be beaten, how judgement is still critical in FPL and how if you "back yourself" you can reap the rewards.

[blahblah]

I kinda enjoyed his angst and moaning tbh

Is he holding them, or taken loads of hits to get Haaland in?

[dino1980]

Not a lot really.

It’s one data point, it shouldn’t change our priors at all.
A few xMins issues to keep an eye on e.g. Mount

Haaland probably being on pens (although Mahrez wasn’t on the pitch) is an unknown which we now have more info on. He was always an excellent pick, managers taking him out because he missed a big chance against Liverpool, when it was a reason to pick him imo, for FPL I’ll take an elite chance getter over an elite finisher every season.

[TheRumourMill]

I kinda enjoyed his angst and moaning tbh

Is he holding them, or taken loads of hits to get Haaland in?

Oh me too, it was entertaining to read on Monday morning

He did Kane to Haaland for free Sunday night. No plans to get Salah at this stage according to what he said on Blackbox.

[blahblah]

Hopefully I won't drift into the Twatterland

Is Kane outscoring Haaland this weekend almost obvious?

[Mav3rick]

I'm a stats player, have been since we first had the concept in FPL and I pay for FFS and Review, but I must admit it makes me uncomfortable if people start getting abuse for taking decisions on their own just because its not part of the group think. Robust discussion is good, challenging an opinion is fine but I suspect the abuse isn't coming from people who challenge in that sort of way.

The models, the fixture strength calcs, the xMins especially come from human decisions that can be wrong - they're certainly not infallible (particularly at the start of the season when there are the most changes and unknowns that can affect the models) - and just because someone has received a 99.5% rating for their team that doesn't mean that they have earned the right to abuse people that they outscore in a single GW, especially people who have probably put a lot more effort into the community over many more years than them.

I guess that's the social media troll rather than an FPL problem, but its depressing if people like Mark or Triggerlips get pushed out of the game or take a back seat due to it.

We need to remember that it is a game after all, and I'm sure most people like FPL because it's an extension of their football fandom, rather than playing FPL as a mathematical box packing exercise calculated by an algorithm that they just paid a few quid to use (and I say that as someone who wrote a basic box packing algorithm in Excel for the STC not that long ago ). It's obvious to me that experienced players who don't use the models come to very similar teams that the algorithms put up. As was mentioned above, all models do is shortcut your own thought process and in theory remove your bias, but in honesty, that little bit of remaining bias along with the chip use is pretty much where the fun lies.

I'm aware that the FPL Review model team (with human intervention for chip use) finished top 1k last season. It's an interesting thought, but if that performance were repeatable, and thus copied en masse, there'd literally be no point playing FPL except for using your own biases FWIT BTW, that current model team features Kane over Haaland and 3x City defenders!

[blahblah]

It would be interesting to know if the Model bods just followed the computer, rather than applying some common sense to the 'suggestions'.

Indeed to your fandom pov, but mine is more lifetime interest, as I have up on Ipswich many years ago

On the one hand I think that people who (there's a saying which I can't remember for) going public and expecting flak, when they just want plaudits etc. I do think SM has armed the ungreat unwashed to spout bigoted shite, as someone will believe their nonsense..... This is one of the joys of FISO where on the whole advice is taken on face value, rather than the username (well apart from Everton as he knows his onions ). Maybe he should join us for his sanity and I'll explain to him how I'm in the Top 66k

[Pirlo's Beard]

I'll explain to him how I'm in the Top 66k

Variance.

[Hogmeister]

I'll explain to him how I'm in the Top 66k

Variance.

[blahblah]

I'll explain to him how I'm in the Top 66k

Variance.

A tad harsh

He'd never get past trying to explain Son and Kane

Freaking daft and borderline school-boy.

Not to mention 1 GW isn't worth getting annoyed/excited about