2x 4.5 keepers

A Fantasy Football forum for news on fantasy football games run by the Premierleague (FPL).
Post Reply
User avatar
cymbalrush84
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1130
Joined: 05 Feb 2008, 21:42
Location: Wolverhampton
FS Record: 2nd in Pendulum Swingers Super League 2006/7
Contact:

2x 4.5 keepers

Post by cymbalrush84 »

Always been the way forward for me. I’d like to have rotate them depending on the most favourable fixture, for the first 10 games until I see the lay of the land. I’m not looking into save bonuses or other bonuses, just the probability of a clean sheet.

I seem to be having trouble picking the right combo at the minute.

I won’t pick two promoted keepers, one at most and that’s likely to be Henderson. Others I’m considering are;

Sanchez - A ton last season, but will Brighton improve?

Guaita - Butland and Johnstone won’t faze me off of him as I believe he’ll still start. More likely to improve than Brighton? Absolutely.

Raya - Clean sheets were missing and Brentford were in freefall until Eriksen arrived. A no go.

Pickford - Lampard likes his teams to go all out, so despite the saves he’d be likely to make, it’s a no.

Rodak - See Pickford.

Meslier - Opening fixtures aren’t so bad. More clean sheets under a more cautious Ted Lasso?

Henderson - If he racks up half the points he got for Sheff U, then it’s not a bad pick.

itslikebrandnew
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 2995
Joined: 28 Jul 2017, 16:47
FS Record: ?

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by itslikebrandnew »

Raya and Henderson. Brentfords fixtures are just so good.

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 98684
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by blahblah »

If you do this can you do a weekly update of how it's going?

User avatar
BLOCKHEAD
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3810
Joined: 20 Jul 2012, 07:51

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by BLOCKHEAD »

It always sounds like a good idea, but never works in reality.

User avatar
raoul
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4372
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: Tied for OR 1st worldwide in FPL in GW5 in 21/22 (only to then finish 1m), and ranked 1st in TFF late in season 21/22 (eventual finish 95th). Won an old game called Football Fantastic. Best Fanteam finish 117th and cashed £150. Best FPL finish 2.4K.

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by raoul »

BLOCKHEAD wrote: 08 Jul 2022, 14:59 It always sounds like a good idea, but never works in reality.
you might almost say it's a trap?

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 20355
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: FPL: 1082, 1201, 1800, 10203

The stats are dark and full of errors.

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by Mav3rick »

I think the issue is that when you rotate keepers, the assumption is that easier fixture means a better xPTS, which is true (but not by much) as cheap keepers generally don't actually have easy games so they are never that likely to keep a clean sheet at all.

The PPG for cheap keepers are only slightly weighted toward fixture strength, in reality, its the unexpected clean sheets and bonus points that turn a 110 point keeper into the 125-130 that we want from a 4.5 guy.

You can certainly get lucky, pick up pen saves, nail clean sheet predictions, etc, but I think ultimately picking fixtures is harder than it seems for keepers/defenders from lower half teams generally. I'm pretty sure that was the conclusion from one the STC threads a few years ago - in that strength of schedule correlates better to points for the better teams and is less of a thing for the lower league sides.

Apart from the ability to rotate a keeper out for the 10 or so games you really don't want to play them in, which can often be mitigated with transfers/wildcards and fixture runs that are missing matches against the top 5/6 teams, that is.

This season, it seems like a complete non-issue though since the available 5.0 keepers blow 4.5 rotation out of the water (for the same 9.0 total cost).

User avatar
Smurphy Paw
FISO Knight
Posts: 10788
Joined: 17 Aug 2006, 17:48
FS Record: Mediocre, apparently
13/14: FPL 1792; FIFA 14 Top 700.
17/18: FPL 696th; loads of mini-League wins and side game promotions
18/19 1FC Köln 5AS Champions
#1 Spring Super League regular season 19/20 & 20/21

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Two playing keepers was an advantage last year and the year before when players/teams were out at short notice with Covid.

Use of big data can tilt the odds of rotating keepers in one’s favour. Marginal, I’ll admit, but it reduces the element of luck from yesteryear

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 98684
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by blahblah »

I did a load of maffs on it a few summers back and it was borderline impossible to do, with home rotation definitely not working.

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 20355
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: FPL: 1082, 1201, 1800, 10203

The stats are dark and full of errors.

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by Mav3rick »

Very good point re the covid issues, especially with case numbers climbing again....

User avatar
BLOCKHEAD
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3810
Joined: 20 Jul 2012, 07:51

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by BLOCKHEAD »

Sanchez rarely makes saves so you're screwed if Brighton concede in their easier fixture when you start him. Most likely the 4.5 with the tougher fixture will get more points through saves in that scenario.

User avatar
BLOCKHEAD
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3810
Joined: 20 Jul 2012, 07:51

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by BLOCKHEAD »

Just pick Ramsdale or Mendy as pick + stick and be done with it. Most of those 4.5 keepers are awful.

User avatar
Ottershaw
Wideboy
Posts: 56
Joined: 16 Aug 2019, 10:13
FS Record: Daily Mirror Manager of the Month.Telegraph European Champion 2012

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by Ottershaw »

Mendy at 5.0 is the bargain G/K.
Then take what you think will be best 4.5 reserve G/K and just lower one of your bench players by .5

User avatar
SUZYKINS
Dumbledore
Posts: 9136
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
Location: Up in the trees feeding Crouch & Zigic.
Contact:

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by SUZYKINS »

itslikebrandnew wrote: 08 Jul 2022, 13:00 Raya and Henderson. Brentfords fixtures are just so good.
https://www.teamtalk.com/brentford/man- ... -term-deal :?

User avatar
From4corners
FISO Knight
Posts: 18934
Joined: 24 Aug 2009, 22:32
Location: London

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by From4corners »

SUZYKINS wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 18:13
itslikebrandnew wrote: 08 Jul 2022, 13:00 Raya and Henderson. Brentfords fixtures are just so good.
https://www.teamtalk.com/brentford/man- ... -term-deal :?

Raya potentially moving to Leicester City to replace Schmeichel who is France-bound? I can see that happen with Brentford having signed that new goalie.

NorthBankRedemption
Wideboy
Posts: 76
Joined: 02 Aug 2018, 22:09
Location: Brooklyn
FS Record: Dismal

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by NorthBankRedemption »

forget about 2 x 4.5 who is the 1 x 4.0?

User avatar
Charade
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4682
Joined: 10 Dec 2009, 02:13
Location: Auckland

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by Charade »

Leno to Fulham looks basically done. There goes my Gazzaniga pick :(
Speaking of which, he might not get many clean sheets, but Leno might be one of the best shot stoppers I've ever seen. Might wait for some decent fixtures and bring him in.

For the moment I've got Raya... and Alisson. Mostly just hoping to ride the wave if Raya picks up some clean sheets and sell for a profit.

User avatar
From4corners
FISO Knight
Posts: 18934
Joined: 24 Aug 2009, 22:32
Location: London

Re: 2x 4.5 keepers

Post by From4corners »

I got rid of Raya as I am concerned Strakosha will take his place soon. Balcombe also left so the "4.0 back up goalkeeper to my starting goalkeeper" tactics are off the table. Was thinking of Sanchez and Steele but Bissouma not there anymore doesn't inspire me with confidence. That being said, I'm on Henderson and Hennessey right now which also doesn't inspire me with too much confidence but enough to take the gamble in the hope they will surprise people.
NorthBankRedemption wrote: 01 Aug 2022, 23:02 forget about 2 x 4.5 who is the 1 x 4.0?
Ward at Leicester seems to have the #1 jersey while their second goalkeeper Iversen hasn't been added yet and I doubt they will make him 4.0 as well. I also don't want to use two Leicester spots up with two goalies.

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL)”