So let's try to drill down to try to make an objective assessment of the two options.
I'll compare my "template team" posted earlier against the following draft "single premium" team. In this one I have brought Gabriel back in instead of Chilwell, to reduce the Chelsea defence risk, and in the middle replaced Rashford with Mount. So it looks like this, with a whopping £1.5m in the bank! I think I'd personally be looking to try to use that cash to upgrade Martinelli to Saka, but I haven't done that here as it makes the following comparison easier.
Screenshot 2022-07-28 at 14.46.54.png
Comparing this with the template, these are the players that are different:
Template: Kane, Diaz, Trippier
vs
Single Premium: Robbo, Foden, Mount (+1.5m in the bank)
So that's the choice being made. So if the websites predict a higher points haul over the initial weeks from the second group, that would argue for the single premium approach... although you then also need to make an adjustment for the reduced expectation of captaincy points from having just Salah.
What do the websites say? I'll use the first 6 weeks, as that's the only (easy) option I can do on FFS...
FFH:
Template: 41.5 + 32.0 + 18.3 = 91.8
Single Premium: 33.3 + 31 + 29.5 = 93.8
So a very slight preference for the SP team here, prior to any adjustment for any captaincy points. Interesting that FFH are currently predicting more points from Martinelli than either Saka or Mount. Not sure I'd agree with that?
Re the captaincy points - FFH expect Kane to not do anything for you over Salah in any given week, but if you'd gone with Haaland, then you'd gain another 6 points or so, so that's the adjustment to add to the above - if going with Haaland. Which would mean in that case, there is now a slight preference for the template team.
By the way FFH predicts Kane to marginally outscore Haaland over this period, but the difference is negligible. They predict a more steady points haul from Kane, with Haaland expected to be more of a flat-track bully against the weaker sides.
FFS:
Template: 30.9 + 28.6 + 17.6 = 77.1
Single Premium: 27.9 + 27.6 + 26.6 = 82.1
So again the SP team is very slightly preferred. On FFS, those "extra captaincy points" are actually irrelevant, as FFS predict that Salah will be the best captain for every one of the first 6 games, even in GW3 (that Man U away fixture).
FFS predicts Haaland to just outscore Kane over these 6 weeks (35 vs 31 points).
Interesting that FFH is significantly more bullish about the points expected from some of the better players, their figures are higher across the board.
Note - I'd have done the same with FPL Review, for comparison, but their site is down for maintenance at the moment.
Conclusions?
The models maybe suggest a slight preference for the single premium model over the course of those initial 6 weeks, but there's not a huge difference. And don't forget that extra £1.5m in the bank for the single premium team.
The Salah permacaptain approach would seem to be endorsed by the above, although a starting XI with Salah and Haaland would give you an advantage in captaincy points according to FFH (but not according to FFS).
Either way (and taking all such statistical projections with the appropriate pinch of salt), these models seem to endorse the view that a single premium approach would be a valid alternative to the template.
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