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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

SUZYKINS wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 10:07
Hogmeister wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 09:54 Just coming back to something I mentioned earlier, the Salah permacaptain, single premium option. I could assemble something like this.

Chelsea haters could of course opt out of James and Chilwell for literally any other defender, and Foden could be any of Mahrez/Grealish/Mount/Kulu/Maddison.

Have to say I am far more tempted by this approach than any threemium draft, as a possible alternative to the more templatish one above…


9D7F1263-7995-400F-B008-1F14C40F05DE.jpeg
Good but no Haaland :shock:
Yeah, and no easy way to get to either him or Kane. And the potential for one or both of them to start well and their price to go through the roof. That’s the obvious drawback.

But with Salah’s fixtures (with the arguable exception of Man U away) being fine for him as captaincy, the question is whether you back Kane/Haaland to outscore an £8m mid such as Saka or Foden + a £3.5 uplift elsewhere. Over those first 5-8 fixtures.

This is all in line with the philosophy of valuing players against their incremental cost over the equivalent base player for their position. That perspective reduces the perceived value for money of premiums. Was reading again about that approach this morning, and it sent me off twinkering (twerking?) once again.

Don’t know whether I’d be brave enough to not start with either of the highly-owned Kane or Haaland, and risk setting myself adrift from the masses at the start (I am risk-averse!)… and the FFH points predictor clearly prefers a line-up with one of those two premiums in… but I do really like it, and think it’s an option worth considering.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Hogmeister wrote: 27 Jul 2022, 21:25 Over two weeks on from my last draft, and despite looking at just about every conceivable option, I’ve ended up pretty much back where started, and remain unchanged in terms of team structure.

Kane/Haaland remains a 50-50 call to be made next week, after the Community Shield. Similarly, I’ll do a last-minute sanity check on going with James over Chilwell.

Otherwise the only three places not locked in I think are the two 5.0 defenders and Martinelli.

Whole team works well with the fixtures, Andreas can cover Trippier’s tough fixtures in GW3 and 5.

So as a risk-averse manager, I think this OK…
- If Martinelli loses his place then it’s an easy switch to Neto, Bailey or whichever cheapish mid has started well.
- Kane or Haaland obviously can be switched if one is outperforming the other.
- Others should be fairly rotation-proof through to GW5, when the European games start.
- Most are pretty rock-solid fantasy assets, so hoping for no dramas/urgent transfers.


26826F63-BA4D-44E2-9E79-C912E53DD0E3.jpeg
I also keep ending up here after trying several different drafts.

In fact, we have the same team other than James, Gabriel and Trippier.

I have ended up with Dias, Romero, Dier. I like Spurs fixtures aside Chelsea away in GW2 and i think Conte will make them decent shout for clean sheets in most games anyway. Those three spots will be my last to change if any, the rest I'm set on.

I will be going with 6.0, 5.0, 5.0 for those last three defender spots anyway as I see them as much better value than say 4.5 defender + 5.0 mid?

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Mav3rick »

The single Salah option when I look at it ends up with KDB in for captaincy in GW2/3. Haaland is great option for the armband, over those fixtures, but KDB is arguably just as good.

A lot might depend on where exactly KDB lines up in the CS, but if going single super premium, that's my plan at the moment and it solves a lot of budgeting/armband problems! You could even add Son to the mix if you're happy to rotate captaincy via transfers and can set the rest of the team up with stablilty.

I also wouldn't rule Sterling out of the single super premium drafts, it's a shame that Chelsea haven't shown much in pre-season, or maybe its a good thing as Sterling is only 7% selected.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Mo Bot »

Salah v Man U (a) worked out ok last season so I think he is captainable s good way into the season.

At this point it does seem there is a lot more value in a 5-6 defender vs a 5-6 mid or fwd.

One of the dilemmas I have at the moment is for 20.0 in midfield. Salah and Grealish v KDB and Diaz.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by SUZYKINS »

Hogmeister wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 10:25

Yeah, and no easy way to get to either him or Kane. And the potential for one or both of them to start well and their price to go through the roof. That’s the obvious drawback.

But with Salah’s fixtures (with the arguable exception of Man U away) being fine for him as captaincy, the question is whether you back Kane/Haaland to outscore an £8m mid such as Saka or Foden + a £3.5 uplift elsewhere. Over those first 5-8 fixtures.

Think Haaland will be an absolute monster this season (shock there) but how has Salah been linking up with the new boys ? No Mane, less Bobby ? Obviously played with Diaz (but with Mane). Nunez looks an out & out forward so no interchanging the wide men ? also Nunez looks a fair lump so less soft penalties ? looks the type to stay on his feet ? Maybe no effect on Salahs potential but maybe enough ? Not sure what effect CL has on Kane & co either with Ricky in reserve ?

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

Thanks for the replies, and I would like to drill down a little deeper here, to try to get an objective assessment of the difference between the two approaches described in my last two screenshots - template vs single premium/Salah permacaptain.

First of all, to reply to your comments...

@Firstsub - Yeah, understand the attraction of Spurs, especially with the way that their respective preseasons have gone for Chelsea and Spurs. The good thing with this approach is that it doesn't matter whether you think Chelsea's defenders are better/worse than Spurs, as you can have whichever ones you want, as the budget is there.

@Mav - Good points, but I won't consider Son or KdB here, as that's a different discussion (e.g. Kane vs Son). My focus here is on what happens if you only go with one of those premiums.

Sterling is, as you say, as yet unproven at Chelsea and I think right now that risk means he is not worth Mount + £2m, so is also not a candidate for inclusion here.

@Suzykins - yes, Haaland could be an absolute monster (if he gets sufficient minutes over the course of the season to be one). Equally I've heard pundits express opinions about players like Grealish, Foden, Saka, Martinelli, Sancho, Perisic etc and how they could be about to have a breakthrough season and make a mockery of their starting prices.

There is a risk with the refreshed forward line up that Salah doesn't quite hit the heights of the last few years, but I think that risk is pretty small, and less than the risk of, say, Haaland only starting 5-6 games of the first 8.

@Mo Bot - yes, exactly, Man U (A) is only arguably a bad fixture for Salah, and so he is pretty much fine as a captain through to GW7. The latest I'll WC is after GW8. Liverpool have Chelsea away in GW8, which is far enough away anyway not to worry about when picking the GW1 team. So this whole strategy would work, and only works, because you have that safe captaincy option each week.

And of the choice you mentioned, I'd go for Salah & Grealish over KdB & Diaz. As you'd probably guess from my interest in this potential approach, Salah is 100% locked into my team, whatever line up I end up with. And I do wonder whether Grealish is being overlooked precisely because he is cheaper than Foden or Mahrez, when in fact he is just as good a fantasy option for this first 5-8 weeks as the other two. Quite tempted to include him as a bit of a punt.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

So let's try to drill down to try to make an objective assessment of the two options.

I'll compare my "template team" posted earlier against the following draft "single premium" team. In this one I have brought Gabriel back in instead of Chilwell, to reduce the Chelsea defence risk, and in the middle replaced Rashford with Mount. So it looks like this, with a whopping £1.5m in the bank! I think I'd personally be looking to try to use that cash to upgrade Martinelli to Saka, but I haven't done that here as it makes the following comparison easier.

Screenshot 2022-07-28 at 14.46.54.png

Comparing this with the template, these are the players that are different:

Template: Kane, Diaz, Trippier
vs
Single Premium: Robbo, Foden, Mount (+1.5m in the bank)

So that's the choice being made. So if the websites predict a higher points haul over the initial weeks from the second group, that would argue for the single premium approach... although you then also need to make an adjustment for the reduced expectation of captaincy points from having just Salah.

What do the websites say? I'll use the first 6 weeks, as that's the only (easy) option I can do on FFS...

FFH:
Template: 41.5 + 32.0 + 18.3 = 91.8
Single Premium: 33.3 + 31 + 29.5 = 93.8

So a very slight preference for the SP team here, prior to any adjustment for any captaincy points. Interesting that FFH are currently predicting more points from Martinelli than either Saka or Mount. Not sure I'd agree with that?

Re the captaincy points - FFH expect Kane to not do anything for you over Salah in any given week, but if you'd gone with Haaland, then you'd gain another 6 points or so, so that's the adjustment to add to the above - if going with Haaland. Which would mean in that case, there is now a slight preference for the template team.

By the way FFH predicts Kane to marginally outscore Haaland over this period, but the difference is negligible. They predict a more steady points haul from Kane, with Haaland expected to be more of a flat-track bully against the weaker sides.

FFS:
Template: 30.9 + 28.6 + 17.6 = 77.1
Single Premium: 27.9 + 27.6 + 26.6 = 82.1

So again the SP team is very slightly preferred. On FFS, those "extra captaincy points" are actually irrelevant, as FFS predict that Salah will be the best captain for every one of the first 6 games, even in GW3 (that Man U away fixture).

FFS predicts Haaland to just outscore Kane over these 6 weeks (35 vs 31 points).

Interesting that FFH is significantly more bullish about the points expected from some of the better players, their figures are higher across the board.

Note - I'd have done the same with FPL Review, for comparison, but their site is down for maintenance at the moment.

Conclusions?

The models maybe suggest a slight preference for the single premium model over the course of those initial 6 weeks, but there's not a huge difference. And don't forget that extra £1.5m in the bank for the single premium team.

The Salah permacaptain approach would seem to be endorsed by the above, although a starting XI with Salah and Haaland would give you an advantage in captaincy points according to FFH (but not according to FFS).

Either way (and taking all such statistical projections with the appropriate pinch of salt), these models seem to endorse the view that a single premium approach would be a valid alternative to the template.
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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by blahblah »

Apparently ESR is injured, so Martinelli should be starting.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

blahblah wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 15:15 Apparently ESR is injured, so Martinelli should be starting.
Yeah so I understand - I think there still remains a rotation risk for Martinelli though, given the number of options that Arsenal have, including the option now to play two up top if they choose. If they were the same price, I'd definitely prefer Saka or Mount. At £6m however....

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Mo Bot »

I think the biggest compliment I can give for your 1 premium team is that it doesn’t look like a 1 premium team with 1.5 in the bank.
I also wonder if there are stats around that demonstrate if you’re better off sticking with one captain or if you miss out by tinkering, similar to the 2 rotating goalkeepers situation.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by blahblah »

I believe the results were quite similar to the GK rotation.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by raoul »

blahblah wrote: 28 Jul 2022, 16:27 I believe the results were quite similar to the GK rotation.
I imagine that on average, tinkering with captains each week gets a gain of some sort, but not much. Reallocating the saved funds from only having one super-premium must surely get a better yield.

However, those who win this thing almost certainly got lucky (or are geniuses) and maxed out on captaincy. So maybe it is worth having two for short periods, or even for a given week, but I doubt it longer term.

Having said all of the above, if you have the best mids and fwds hitting around a 20x multiple, you will get 20x £24m whether you allocate it 12/6/6 or 8/8/8.

Super-premiums who x20 are worth having even if not captained, and if you can fit them into your model, because I do not see any other options that beat them.

Except the GK and maxed out defence earning 25-30x, of course.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

My contemplation of a single premium line up above concluded that it was a decent alternative, but with no big advantage/disadvantage over the template line up. Immediately after the posts above, I reverted to the template structure (Salah plus Kane/Haaland) as the one to adopt.

Think I’m now pretty settled after the Community Shield/friendlies, which basically confirmed things I had in mind anyway… Kane over Haaland for GW1, being prepared if (and only if) needed to switch ahead of GW2… Robbo over Diaz… Perisic looks like a starter for GW1 and so is worth a punt… Martinelli looks a great value pick… stay away from City mids.

So am pretty settled on this line up now… it’s very big at the back, and yes I am keeping James in there - despite Chelsea’s pre-season woes, I’m backing James to rack up the points over the first 5-8 weeks. Meanwhile in midfield, Martinelli’s form (and regular pre-season starts) has made this sort of line up much safer than when he was perceived as a rotation risk.

The one big risk remaining is Neto, who could still be swapped out for Podence, or Bailey. I do quite fancy a Wolves player in there, purely and simply because of their fixtures, and with the view of probably swapping them out to any surprise value picks that emerge in the first few weeks.

Have switched from Ederson in goal to Ramsdale, simply because I expect them to score similarly over those first 5-8 fixtures, and that saves 0.5m. Which is the 0.5m ITB for this line up.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Oxford NZ »

Very nice imo , I am headed in the same direction to start the season. No james for me ,change of keeper and 5.0 mid for Neto and we are about the same with a bit of bench shenanigans for an early BB and WC

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Gambit »

Very strong team.

Only issues I can pick with it are the possible risks around Neto and Martinelli and the lack of 8m midfielder, other than that it ticks all the boxes. And in fairness to Martinelli and Neto it does look like both will start the season as first choice so they could prove excellent value.

Interesting reading your comments on the single premium team, I was very close to going with just Salah as this allowed me a killer midfield of two (or even three) 8m spots and still being able to have the strong defence!

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by zipnolan »

Hmm, absurdly close to my current draft.... I'm beginning to feel that all this fuss about which 8m. midfielder to have is best resolved by having none of them :wink:

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

zipnolan wrote: 31 Jul 2022, 16:34 Hmm, absurdly close to my current draft.... I'm beginning to feel that all this fuss about which 8m. midfielder to have is best resolved by having none of them :wink:
Exactly :mrgreen:

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

By the way, in case anyone wasn’t aware of the thinking on this one… Ward is probably the best 4.0m GK, as there’s a possibility that Schmeichel may leave Leicester and if so, for a short while at least, Ward could be first choice. Probably not going to happen, but you never know, and as that position is pure bench fodder until the first WC, Ward is my pick.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Magic »

Hogmeister wrote: 01 Aug 2022, 07:56Schmeichel may leave Leicester, Ward is my pick.
https://www.vavel.com/en/football/2022/ ... -city.html

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Mav3rick »

Looking good hoggy, good reasons for all picks all round, and I'm with you on Perisic and Ward.

It looks like DaSilva won't be a starter for now, but I can't really see any better options, same with Archer who along with DaSilva seem the most likely to bet getting a few minutes off the bench with a chance of a return.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Looks very solid, as i've previously said i'm on a similar set up and after watching Liv v City at the weekend I like the Trent/Robbo/Salah trio. Evident that Trent/Robbo will be the main creators in that Liverpool team again. Nunez could be a massive beneficiary of this but Firmino will still get minutes you'd think so thats a wait and see.

You confident in Perisic getting the minutes?

On 4.5 mids, Longstaff at Newcastle will get some gametime but probably in the same bracket as DaSilva in bench apps.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

I heard someone mention Ward was injured. Iversen started in goal for the 1-0 win over Sevilla yesterday.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Hogmeister »

Sutter Kane wrote: 01 Aug 2022, 09:10 I heard someone mention Ward was injured. Iversen started in goal for the 1-0 win over Sevilla yesterday.
Hadn’t spotted that, thanks. Just checked, there are more details here:
https://t.co/18qzedkrlK

Basically, Rodgers has previously said he “has 2 number ones”, Ward and Schmeichel. Ward due to injury has missed pre-season, but should be playing today in a behind closed doors friendly. So may not be ready for GW1, but presumably not far off. When he’s back, I guess he’ll be ahead of Iversen in the pecking order?

In the absence of any other stand-out options, still seems like the best 4.0 choice I think.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Sutter Kane »

Yeah I agree. Problem arises if Lei sign another keeper - then Ward, after playing GW2, garnering new owners, has potential to fall in value when he's dropped again.

It's probably worth the gamble though as he could keep his place I suppose.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Spreadsheet »

Apparently we’re in for Raya having had a sniff at Leno just as he was closing the Fulham deal.

But, yes, I would suggest that Ward would be above Iversen when fit, unless this preseason has changed BR’s thinking any. Iversen has potential and is well regarded but his distribution is not great (not that Kasper’s is, with feet particularly).

But I wouldn’t say either of Ward or Iversen are top Prem quality and would expect us to bring someone else in if Kasper does leave.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Spreadsheet wrote: 01 Aug 2022, 14:30 Apparently we’re in for Raya having had a sniff at Leno just as he was closing the Fulham deal.

But, yes, I would suggest that Ward would be above Iversen when fit, unless this preseason has changed BR’s thinking any. Iversen has potential and is well regarded but his distribution is not great (not that Kasper’s is, with feet particularly).

But I wouldn’t say either of Ward or Iversen are top Prem quality and would expect us to bring someone else in if Kasper does leave.
Anything doing on outgoings? Seen Newcastle sniffing around Maddison/Barnes

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Spreadsheet »

Saw reports that we’ve set a 7th Aug deadline on the big ones (Maddison to Newcastle or Spurs, Barnes to Newcastle, Fofana to Chelsea, Tielemans to Arsenal or Man U), to reduce the risk of panicking on late deal, time for replacements to gel, etc. Not sure if Kasper falls into that too, we’re clearly on the trail of replacements as we’re also now rumoured to be scouting Sanchez at Brighton, as well as Napoli, Benfica and Nantes keepers.

Others that will be allowed to go include Vestergaard (Fulham and Brentford interested), Soyuncu (Inter Milan interest), Soumare (this might actually be an old report as he’s actually played most of preseason in the ‘stronger’ lineups, and we turned down a £15m bid from Monaco though that might be because we paid nearer to £25m just last summer), Iheanacho, Praet (Torino return?), Perez, Mendy and Bertrand.

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Mav3rick »

Wouldn't losing Maddison this late in the window be pretty bad? If Fofana, Tielemans and Kasper go too, as well as Ricardo's apparent injury, isn't that half the team out of contention on the eve of the season starting?

Leicester are a very well run club, and there must be a plan, but that seems a lot of losses to deal with in one go!

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by Spreadsheet »

Without a doubt. That’s why we’ve put £60m on him, and offered him a new contract to take him to joint top earner. But we’re struggling for money and meeting FFP. Plus there are plans to expand the stadium.

By all accounts, Maddison is happy and hasn’t requested to leave, but we understand the frustration at being overlooked for England squads and in a World Cup season too…

Dewsbury-Hall is a future lynchpin, very very gifted, but it’s too early for him to be given the responsibility. He’s developing well sitting next to Tielemans and behind Maddison. To lose both of those around him would decimate the midfield creativity, as the closest things to replacements we have for them are Soumare, who can’t cope with the pace of EPL, and Praet, who clearly isn’t thought well enough of.

So Maddison going would be a disaster for us, especially as I don’t have the faith we’d use the money wisely this late. Fofana leaving would also be huge for us. We’ve always been a selling club, but I fear our luck in unearthing the next ones is starting to turn, much like Southampton in the 2010s - they had some talented squads but have slowly declined.

By the way, Leicester Mercury have today released an interview with Rodgers after our last friendly describing Ward as a number 1 (ie he was unlucky to have someone like Kasper at the same club as him) and therefore the GK hunt is for a “back-up” only.

Looks like a 4.0m starting GK may be on.

Edit to add link: https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/spor ... en-7408732

Also, apologies for derailing this thread Hog. I’ll refrain from further Foxes posts!

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Re: The Hog Blog

Post by blahblah »

Sounds like a dodgy month or so....

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