First Round QBs - Hit or Sh*t?

[blahblah]

You mentioned above going back to the Title, rather than starting next season's. But this is kind of a dead SB atm due to the 2 teams and COVID still in play re Radio Row etc. Admittedly NBCSN seems to have moved to Peacock, which I can not access and the times are different to Miami when I could watch loads of it

I'll update the title of the seasonal one on Monday

[forestfan]

Found this, similar theme to my analysis, if a few years old…

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -1994-2016

Good point re. late round picks not necessarily failing just because they’re crap (which most admittedly will be), but through never getting an opportunity - as the author says, there’s a plausible alternative history where Tom Brady never starts an NFL game. Whereas a first round QB will always get a reasonable shot, given the investment made in him (as evidenced by the number who fall just short of my “franchise” mark, with only a small proportion bad enough to be ditched after a season or two).

[forestfan]

R5 looks the ultimate QB wasteland, from that analysis.

You do wonder what goes through the heads of GMs who take a QB in rounds 5-7… do they really think “this guy could be the next Brady”? Or even “he could be a decent backup”, which is still a long shot? The chance of them being worth anything is slimmer than Shady… whereas if you take an RB, WR, TE, DB or even a kicker there’s a fair chance you get some sort of contribution. Then take a flyer QB as a UDFA if there’s one that catches your eye in some way.

[blahblah]

Found this, similar theme to my analysis, if a few years old…

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -1994-2016

Good point re. late round picks not necessarily failing just because they’re crap (which most admittedly will be), but through never getting an opportunity - as the author says, there’s a plausible alternative history where Tom Brady never starts an NFL game. Whereas a first round QB will always get a reasonable shot, given the investment made in him (as evidenced by the number who fall just short of my “franchise” mark, with only a small proportion bad enough to be ditched after a season or two).

I'll read it later, but Brady has been peddling that alternative history where the Tuck Rule thing goes the other way and .....

[forestfan]

Found this, similar theme to my analysis, if a few years old…

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- ... -1994-2016

Good point re. late round picks not necessarily failing just because they’re crap (which most admittedly will be), but through never getting an opportunity - as the author says, there’s a plausible alternative history where Tom Brady never starts an NFL game. Whereas a first round QB will always get a reasonable shot, given the investment made in him (as evidenced by the number who fall just short of my “franchise” mark, with only a small proportion bad enough to be ditched after a season or two).

I'll read it later, but Brady has been peddling that alternative history where the Tuck Rule thing goes the other way and .....

Yeah, but obviously goes back even further… what if Bledsoe never got injured? What if Detroit or Cleveland took him in the 2000 draft? Or even someone with a nailed on starter, like Green Bay or Indy… and so on…

[blahblah]

Yep, kinda lucky.......

[forestfan]

OK, so to summarise, post-Super Bowl (which has pushed Stafford up my rankings somewhat...) - a few different measures of success. (I've tweaked my points system to avoid double-counting, and also included class of '17 and assumed Mahomes makes 80+ starts for the Chefs...)

Franchise Guy (80 starts for original team): R1 25%, R2 14%, R3 3%
Stalwart Starter (100 starts in league as a whole): R1 31%, R2 17%, R3 6%
Better Than Dalton (the Dalton Scale was always a good measure, i.e. anyone better than him (in his prime) is a franchise QB and anyone worse isn't... so thought I'd see how many score above him based on my career metric!): R1 25%, R2 7%, R3 6%
Super Bowl Winner (as starter, whether or not with original team): R1 10%, R2 7%, R3 6%
Hall of Famer (included Brady, Brees, Ben, Eli and Buck as bankers, held fire on Mahomes, Rivers, Wilson and all others not yet eligible/inducted for now): R1 6%, R2 7% , R3 0%

My scoring system (used in the Dalton comparison) allows for career starts, yardage and individual/team honours, it ignores things like winning percentage, passer rating and TD-INT ratio but the better ones by those measures will tend to stick around and win the trophies anyway, it isn't generating many anomalies.

[forestfan]

#1 picks only: FG 44%, SS 56%, BTD 44%, SBW 19%, HoF 13%.

So your QB taken with the first overall pick has less than 50% chance of having a better career than Andy Dalton

[blahblah]

Sounds about right, with Baker on the tightrope....

[forestfan]

Sounds about right, with Baker on the tightrope....

Yeah, he's got some way to go to reach the (career) Dalton Line given lack of Pro Bowls and being a season short of the 5-year mark anyway. Incidentally, Dalton made 3 Pro Bowls (I think we can say that in the past tense now) whereas Stafford has only made 1 in seemingly the weaker QB conference! A few other strange ones there, I know players get in through injuries as opposed to being original selections and presumably get it on their CV in either case. But Mac Jones got in ahead of Burrow and Allen this year (touch of Boston Bias?) and the established superstars are more or less guaranteed to be named each year.

[blahblah]

Mac was doing well until the last few GW's, so maybe the votes were already in?

[forestfan]

Mac was doing well until the last few GW's, so maybe the votes were already in?

Well yeah, it is probably early voting, but the higher profile teams probably have the edge anyway.

Looks like Burrow and Jones were both alternates for the AFC, but Jones got called up (for the injured Jackson, who I'm not sure deserved it either...) and obviously Burrow didn't as he was going to the SB, so don't know which of them actually got the most votes.

[forestfan]

So, a quick look at lower round QBs...

239 QBs drafted on what's now day 3, since 1990. I had a quick scan to pick out those who did anything, so as per my earlier categories:
FG - 3 (Brady, Bulger, Prescott)
SS - 7 (Brady, Cousins, Fitzpatrick, Hasselbeck, Brunell, T Green, B Johnson)
BTD - 3 (Brady, B Johnson, Hasselbeck)
SBW - 2 (Brady, B Johnson)
HoF - 1 (Brady, presumed)

Percentages are barely worth noting given they're so small, and rather skewed by one man. Johnson was a 9th-rounder, when such a thing existed, of course. Then there are the notable UDFAs - Warner (Super Bowl winner, MVP and HoF), Romo, Garcia, Delhomme and Kitna are the best I can find in living memory, but there may be others.

[forestfan]

And to summarise, the best 20 QBs under my ranking system, who have entered the league since 1990 (My scoring system seems to give quite reasonable results, not too many obvious anomalies!)

1) Brady R6 2000 NE 4382pts
2) P Manning R1 1998 IND 3012
3) Favre R2 1991 ATL 2075
4) Rodgers R1 2005 GB 1996
5) Brees R2 2001 LAC 1496
6) Roethlisberger R1 2004 PIT 1460
7) Warner UDFA 1998 LAR 1331
8) E Manning R1 2004 NYG* 1203
9) R Wilson R3 2012 SEA 1129
10) Ryan R1 2008 ATL 954
11) Mahomes R1 2017 KC 939
12) Rivers R1 2004 LAC* 834
13) McNair R1 1995 TEN 691
14) Newton R1 2011 CAR 687
15) Stafford R1 2009 DET 684
16) McNabb R1 1999 PHI 682
17) B Johnson R9 1992 MIN 610
18) Flacco R1 2008 BAL 605
19) Hasselbeck R6 1998 GB 522
20) Bledsoe R1 1993 NE 516

13 out of 20 from Round 1. So yeah, despite the still low hit rate of R1 QBs, you're still clutching at straws to find one later on!

[blahblah]

There are no guarantees, although I'd guess 199 is a solid spot to draft a QB

I see a QB with a stylistic fit with the HC; and good OL and weapons has the best chance of doing well almost regardless of how good he is.

[forestfan]

Dalton ranks 27th, by the way… so the system produces approximately one above average starting QB per year, which given the typical career length of the best feels about right.

[forestfan]

There are no guarantees, although I'd guess 199 is a solid spot to draft a QB

I see a QB with a stylistic fit with the HC; and good OL and weapons has the best chance of doing well almost regardless of how good he is.

Brady was seen as a system QB for some years, until probably 2007 when he started churning out the regular season numbers to match Peyton and co.

We don’t see that many “moment in time” successes though, most good QBs are good for years, even if they rarely have that magic combination of circumstances to win the big one. Those with short peaks tend to be the ones who suffer from injuries a lot, or have an attritional style of play (how Big Ben lasted 18 years I’ve no idea…)

[forestfan]

On a lighter note... looking through the list of drafted QBs threw up some interesting/amusing names.

Easton Stick (he hasn't done, yet…)
David Fales (he did…)
Kliff Kingsbury (had absolutely no idea he was an NFL QB)
Mike Kafka (esque…)
Keith Null (and void…)
John David Booty (no comment necessary!)
Jeff Smoker (health warning!)
Cody Pickett (not a good omen…)
Brooks Bollinger (not too many champagne moments)
Kevin Daft (whoever picked him clearly was)
Larry W*nke (yes really!)
Major Harris (minor impact)
Matt Rodgers (the generic QB? Matt Allen would be even better…)
Jon Stark (Snow finally makes Lord of Winterfell? And drafted by the three-eyed Ravens, as well...)
Josh Booty (another one!)
Stoney Case (I've heard of Casey Stoney and Casey Stoner...)

[raoul]

the 2 Booty boys are brothers, and one of them was drafted by my lovely Seahawks (Josh I think). We rarely draft QB, and other than Russell there are only a couple I can recall (Rick Mirer being one who did at least play a bit, Dan McGwire being Mark McGwire's (Baseball) brother I think). Our fail rate on QB is very high, although most were late round picks.

[forestfan]

Well, as outlined in this thread, late round picks are no more than lottery tickets, and Brady was the 1 in a million jackpot. Even a #1 pick has less than a 50-50 chance of having an above average starter type career...

Obviously you only need to strike gold once a decade, and the Seahawks outdid most by doing so with a third-rounder.

[forestfan]

So, a lone first-rounder in Pickett (hope he does get number 6...) What does history tell us in terms of QBs who were seemingly in a crap crop, i.e. the only one taken on day 1?

2013 - Manuel - ranked 58th of 68 qualifying first-round QBs
2001 - Vick - 18th
2000 - Pennington - 31st
1993 - Druckenmiller - 68th and last

Vick is the only one who ranks at around "average starter" level (and would be higher were it not for the dog fighting episode, of course). He was a #1 pick, so less likely to have been a reach, whereas the others were taken 16th overall or lower. So history's not on Pickett's side.

Incidentally, in 1996 no QB was taken in round 1, the only time in the period I analysed. (First pick in round 2, Tony Banks, wasn't a massive success either, though did start 78 games for various teams and won a Super Bowl ring as a backup). 1996 and 2000 were the only years that, like this year, only one QB was taken in the first two rounds.

What the 49ers were doing taking a QB as Mr Irrelevant still beats me, surely he's unlikely to even make the practice squad, and they could have found someone with value at one of the more rotational positions such as CB/S or RB, or special teams? Sure there was logic in it somewhere.

[blahblah]

Given how many who actual use their feet on the football had gone, it could have been totally random; but then he may get perverted to another position?

[forestfan]

Yeah, I did wonder if he was one of those nominal QBs who might be able to play a different position at pro level (and accepts that fact… in an alternate universe Tebow might be a FHoF TE by now!) Or maybe he’s the next Tom Brady More likely he’s never heard of again.

[Mo Bot]

He's their third choice behind Sudfield after they cut Jimmy G

[blahblah]

Has Gina been cut?

Foles has been released and I assume Fitz has been too?

[forestfan]

Gina not cut as yet… depending on ArmStrong’s progress he could still start first game, plausibly.

I think Fitzmagic is a free agent as was only on one-year deal with Commodes? Not sure of his fitness or desire to continue.

[forestfan]

Carson Strong goes to Philly as UDFA.

[blahblah]

Carson Strong goes to Philly as UDFA.

But must be worse than your last pick

[forestfan]

Carson Strong goes to Philly as UDFA.

But must be worse than your last pick

Yeah, I think there’s fitness doubts as well as the fact he’s basically the QB equivalent of a bowling machine in cricket.

[forestfan]

First time in a good while no rookie QB took a snap in week 1 (as far as I’m aware, certainly none started…)