Yeah my bench this week now up to 25 with Davies to come! Ridiculous, I’ve looked again at my team and no way did it look like a bench boost week, and cant see where I could have had my subs set up differently, maybe played Rudiger above James due to security of starts but not going to bench james given his potential for hauls.
Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
GW32:
Another bad week with a mediocre 53 points and a red arrow down to 98K! my bench yet again delivered another kick in the balls with a huge 31 points
Didn't see my Everton players doing so well against United and although I thought both Chelsea and Spurs would win I expected both to concede, as it was I got a full house of clean sheets on my bench and a double digit haul from a deflected Gordon goal!
A few weeks ago I'd have said I was well set to finish well inside the top 50K with a fairly respectable finish, at the moment I'm in danger of slipping out of the top 100K......
GW33:
With news that Lacazette hasn't trained all week and Weghorst out of form I feel I may be forced to Free Hit. My plan was BB in GW36 where I already have a lot of doublers and FH in GW37 but now thinking FH this week will be the better move. In addition to Laca likely not playing I have James who could again be rested if he plays 90 in the cup game and only 3 DGW players (not counting Laca).
My team doesn't look THAT bad this week but the lack of DGW players and a poor frontline (not counting Kane) could cause me to fall behind again.
I've not even looked at what a FH would look like but from my current team only Kane and Saka would stay for sure and possibly Salah/TAA/Targett. I'd look to bring in Wood/ASM, one of Bruno/Ronaldo or even both of them, a DGW keeper, maybe Telles. Will have to have a proper look later tonight.
Another bad week with a mediocre 53 points and a red arrow down to 98K! my bench yet again delivered another kick in the balls with a huge 31 points
Didn't see my Everton players doing so well against United and although I thought both Chelsea and Spurs would win I expected both to concede, as it was I got a full house of clean sheets on my bench and a double digit haul from a deflected Gordon goal!
A few weeks ago I'd have said I was well set to finish well inside the top 50K with a fairly respectable finish, at the moment I'm in danger of slipping out of the top 100K......
GW33:
With news that Lacazette hasn't trained all week and Weghorst out of form I feel I may be forced to Free Hit. My plan was BB in GW36 where I already have a lot of doublers and FH in GW37 but now thinking FH this week will be the better move. In addition to Laca likely not playing I have James who could again be rested if he plays 90 in the cup game and only 3 DGW players (not counting Laca).
My team doesn't look THAT bad this week but the lack of DGW players and a poor frontline (not counting Kane) could cause me to fall behind again.
I've not even looked at what a FH would look like but from my current team only Kane and Saka would stay for sure and possibly Salah/TAA/Targett. I'd look to bring in Wood/ASM, one of Bruno/Ronaldo or even both of them, a DGW keeper, maybe Telles. Will have to have a proper look later tonight.
- Hogmeister
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
FWIW I’m also probably going to FH, after the Lacazette news and the earlier announcement re probable Chelsea DGW34.
Going to sleep on it before deciding. Earlier today I plugged a draft FH team into FFH’s points predictor and it came out with a prediction of an extra 15 points over my current team. I know those tools are only a very crude guide, but it does give an unbiased/objective assessment of the potential outcomes.
Going to sleep on it before deciding. Earlier today I plugged a draft FH team into FFH’s points predictor and it came out with a prediction of an extra 15 points over my current team. I know those tools are only a very crude guide, but it does give an unbiased/objective assessment of the potential outcomes.
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Think I’m going to pull the FH trigger. Hope this helps with your deliberations a little, but here’s my call
Team without FH (after using two FT’s):
Ramsdale
TAA / Robbo / Laporte
Salah / Saka (c) / Maddison / Barnes /
Kane / Broja / Wood
FH Team:
Dubra
TAA / Cancelo / Schar
Bruno (c) / Sancho / Salah / Maddison / Martinelli
Ronaldo / Wood
According to the FFH points predictor, that forecasts 104.5 points this week, against 84.1 from my non-FH team.
Benefits of FH -
Should be comfortably above the normal 10-15 points uplift you aim for with a FH
Allows Man U players and Newcastle for this week only
Bruno captain a big uplift over Saka
GW36-37 easier to plan for with just FTs as it’s the top teams that are doubling anyway, unlike this week with Man U and Newcastle.
Allows a Lacazette/Doherty/Saiss switch next week to the players I want for the run-in, rather than a tactical quick fix (Wood/Laporte) this week
Downside of FH -
Reduced flexibility for those later gameweeks
Will need to take a 4 or 8-point hit next week to get the team I want
Still risks in that team - will Maddison get rested? Will injury-hit Arsenal (Martinelli) be any good?
What if Kane and Son get a haul?
Bottom line - I think I’m going for it.
Team without FH (after using two FT’s):
Ramsdale
TAA / Robbo / Laporte
Salah / Saka (c) / Maddison / Barnes /
Kane / Broja / Wood
FH Team:
Dubra
TAA / Cancelo / Schar
Bruno (c) / Sancho / Salah / Maddison / Martinelli
Ronaldo / Wood
According to the FFH points predictor, that forecasts 104.5 points this week, against 84.1 from my non-FH team.
Benefits of FH -
Should be comfortably above the normal 10-15 points uplift you aim for with a FH
Allows Man U players and Newcastle for this week only
Bruno captain a big uplift over Saka
GW36-37 easier to plan for with just FTs as it’s the top teams that are doubling anyway, unlike this week with Man U and Newcastle.
Allows a Lacazette/Doherty/Saiss switch next week to the players I want for the run-in, rather than a tactical quick fix (Wood/Laporte) this week
Downside of FH -
Reduced flexibility for those later gameweeks
Will need to take a 4 or 8-point hit next week to get the team I want
Still risks in that team - will Maddison get rested? Will injury-hit Arsenal (Martinelli) be any good?
What if Kane and Son get a haul?
Bottom line - I think I’m going for it.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
GW33:
The FH was used and I finished on a fairly decent 90 points with a green arrow up to 71k. Overall it was a mild success, outscored my non FH team, prevented a -4 or -8, and means I haven't now got players such as Wood and Bruno who I would want to remove in the next couple of weeks. It could have been better of course, Bruno blanked as my C so going Ronaldo instead would have pushed me into triple figures.
GW34:
Having already got James and Rudiger in place I was planning just a single transfer this week:
Laca to Werner, or Eriksen to Mount/Havertz, this would have given me triple Chelsea for no hits. With the news that Rudiger is crocked I will be taking a -4 or maybe even an aggressive -8!
There are several options I'm looking at.
-4 option:
Rudiger to Alonso
Laca to Werner, or Eriksen to Mount/Havertz
Gives me three Chelsea players and in James and Alonso I'd have arguably the two Chelsea players with the biggest chance to get a monster haul. The downside is Alonso is not nailed and Chelsea haven't looked great at the back so perhaps double Chelsea defence is not the way to go.
-8 option:
Laca to Werner
Eriksen to Mount/Havertz
Rudiger to anybody up to 5.7 (Cash, Matip etc)
Double Chelsea attack instead of defence and in Havertz and Werner I'd have two low owned players who could be superb differentials this week and against a poor Everton team next week. Cash has Norwich home in GW35 and then a double DGW so I'd be confident he would repay the -4. Plus another player in place for the BB in GW36. The downside is the -8, and Havertz and Werner could easily flop, I'm still haunted by Havertz in the infamous GW9 debacle
The final option is to give Chelsea a swerve and focus on City/Liverpool players, so the same players out on the -4 and -8 but look at the likes of:
Cancelo
Robertson
VVD
Mahrez
Foden
Sterling
I think at this stage of the season and stuck at around 70K I may as well go down fighting so I'm favouring going three low owned players in Cash/Havertz/Werner and rolling the dice.........
The FH was used and I finished on a fairly decent 90 points with a green arrow up to 71k. Overall it was a mild success, outscored my non FH team, prevented a -4 or -8, and means I haven't now got players such as Wood and Bruno who I would want to remove in the next couple of weeks. It could have been better of course, Bruno blanked as my C so going Ronaldo instead would have pushed me into triple figures.
GW34:
Having already got James and Rudiger in place I was planning just a single transfer this week:
Laca to Werner, or Eriksen to Mount/Havertz, this would have given me triple Chelsea for no hits. With the news that Rudiger is crocked I will be taking a -4 or maybe even an aggressive -8!
There are several options I'm looking at.
-4 option:
Rudiger to Alonso
Laca to Werner, or Eriksen to Mount/Havertz
Gives me three Chelsea players and in James and Alonso I'd have arguably the two Chelsea players with the biggest chance to get a monster haul. The downside is Alonso is not nailed and Chelsea haven't looked great at the back so perhaps double Chelsea defence is not the way to go.
-8 option:
Laca to Werner
Eriksen to Mount/Havertz
Rudiger to anybody up to 5.7 (Cash, Matip etc)
Double Chelsea attack instead of defence and in Havertz and Werner I'd have two low owned players who could be superb differentials this week and against a poor Everton team next week. Cash has Norwich home in GW35 and then a double DGW so I'd be confident he would repay the -4. Plus another player in place for the BB in GW36. The downside is the -8, and Havertz and Werner could easily flop, I'm still haunted by Havertz in the infamous GW9 debacle
The final option is to give Chelsea a swerve and focus on City/Liverpool players, so the same players out on the -4 and -8 but look at the likes of:
Cancelo
Robertson
VVD
Mahrez
Foden
Sterling
I think at this stage of the season and stuck at around 70K I may as well go down fighting so I'm favouring going three low owned players in Cash/Havertz/Werner and rolling the dice.........
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
The -8 was taken and I went for:
Rudiger to Cash
Eriksen to Havertz
Lacazette to Werner
team for this week is
Sa
Targett / TAA / James
Salah (vc) / Havertz (C) / Kulesevski / Saka
Kane / Werner / Weghorst
Pickford / Cash / Davies / Gordon
Didn't need Cash this week but as Rudiger was blocking me getting the Chelsea players I wanted I just brought the move forward as he was somebody I was looking at for GW35 and then the double double.
Targett and Saka have already returned points, and Cash with 6 points waiting as 1st sub if anybody misses out.
My plan now is to roll the transfer for GW35 as my team looks good as it is and then attack DGW36 with two FT's and play the BB.
Good luck all!
Rudiger to Cash
Eriksen to Havertz
Lacazette to Werner
team for this week is
Sa
Targett / TAA / James
Salah (vc) / Havertz (C) / Kulesevski / Saka
Kane / Werner / Weghorst
Pickford / Cash / Davies / Gordon
Didn't need Cash this week but as Rudiger was blocking me getting the Chelsea players I wanted I just brought the move forward as he was somebody I was looking at for GW35 and then the double double.
Targett and Saka have already returned points, and Cash with 6 points waiting as 1st sub if anybody misses out.
My plan now is to roll the transfer for GW35 as my team looks good as it is and then attack DGW36 with two FT's and play the BB.
Good luck all!
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
GW34:
Another mediocre week with 65(-8) and a small red arrow down to 75K. How James and Havertz(C) didn't each end up with double digit hauls in that United game I do not know, a solitary assist to show for chance after chance. Alonso now with 33 points in his last three GW's compared to my James who has just 2 I thought James was outstanding so fingers crossed he doesn't get benched again or moved into the back three. In that wingback role his points potential is massive.
Rather depressingly I'm now at virtually the exact same rank as I was in GW30, my team is stuck in treacle and I can't seem to gain any traction. With so few GW's left I think it's almsot inevitable I will finish up pretty much where I am now.
GW35:
Happy with my team this week so rolling the transfer:
Sa
TAA / James / Cash
Kulusevski / Salah (vc) / Havertz / Saka
Weghorst / Werner / Kane (C)
Pickford / Davies / Gordon / Targett
Wanted to play Davies as I think Spurs will do well this week but can't see who else to leave out and Saka has been confirmed as fit (and on pens again!)
GW36:
Will have two FT's and unless I get a spate of injuries I will be playing the BB.
Good luck all
Another mediocre week with 65(-8) and a small red arrow down to 75K. How James and Havertz(C) didn't each end up with double digit hauls in that United game I do not know, a solitary assist to show for chance after chance. Alonso now with 33 points in his last three GW's compared to my James who has just 2 I thought James was outstanding so fingers crossed he doesn't get benched again or moved into the back three. In that wingback role his points potential is massive.
Rather depressingly I'm now at virtually the exact same rank as I was in GW30, my team is stuck in treacle and I can't seem to gain any traction. With so few GW's left I think it's almsot inevitable I will finish up pretty much where I am now.
GW35:
Happy with my team this week so rolling the transfer:
Sa
TAA / James / Cash
Kulusevski / Salah (vc) / Havertz / Saka
Weghorst / Werner / Kane (C)
Pickford / Davies / Gordon / Targett
Wanted to play Davies as I think Spurs will do well this week but can't see who else to leave out and Saka has been confirmed as fit (and on pens again!)
GW36:
Will have two FT's and unless I get a spate of injuries I will be playing the BB.
Good luck all
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Late change of plan!
Nearly all the Chelsea posts I’ve read this morning have Werner benched and Havertz too, I’ve decided to jump off them both for Watkins and Coutinho, Norwich at home and then a double double should give me the four points back......
Nearly all the Chelsea posts I’ve read this morning have Werner benched and Havertz too, I’ve decided to jump off them both for Watkins and Coutinho, Norwich at home and then a double double should give me the four points back......
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
GW35:
50 points (-4) and a small red arrow down to 76K, as I mentioned last week my team is stuck!
Removing the two Chelsea players didn't hurt as although both played they contributed little, Werner was annoymous and subbed early again and Havertz looked more likely to get sent off than score. Watkins came straight in with a goal and max bonus although Coutinho disappointed.
GW36:
I already had x 13 DGW players and moved Weghorst to Richarlison earlier this week as I was right on the money for my plan, the other two moves were going to be:
Sa to Ederson
Targett to Matip
or
Sa to Schmeichel
Targett to Dias
This would give me x 15 DGW players and I'd hit the bench boost. It's always easy to make your bench look artificially strong when lining up a bench boost when every player doubles, but if I made the above moves then I think my genuine (weakest bench) would be
Ederson
TAA / Matip / James
Salah / Gordon / Coutinho / Saka
Kane / Richarlison / Watkins
Pickford / Davies / Kulusevski / Cash
I think it's fair to pick Gordon above Kulu as his fixtures are better. It's not a very strong bench in terms of fixtures but all should play twice so I'd be hopeful of starting at x 16 appearance points and then see what they each get. Obviously could be minus points!
When I factor in a -8 to get the above I'm now in two minds if I should BB in GW37 instead, I can get a full team of DGW players for GW36 (the same team as above but Pickford/Cash play as I don't bring in Ederson/Matip) avoid the -8, and as I've already got six Villa/Everton for GW37 I would play
Pickford
TAA / Cash / James
Salah / Gordon / Coutinho / Kulusevski
Kane / Watkins / Richarlison
Sa / Davies / Saka / Matip (transferred in for Targett)
My bench has no DGW players but there is no -8 and it's:
Sa home v Norwich
Davies home v Burnley
Saka away v Newcastle
Matip away v Southampton (could be any defender up to 6.2m)
I'm thinking that the above bench +8 points beats my bench in GW36..........but getting four extra fixtures this week gives me four extra tickets for one of them to get something decent and I also get a City defender in plus an extra Liverpool defender.
50 points (-4) and a small red arrow down to 76K, as I mentioned last week my team is stuck!
Removing the two Chelsea players didn't hurt as although both played they contributed little, Werner was annoymous and subbed early again and Havertz looked more likely to get sent off than score. Watkins came straight in with a goal and max bonus although Coutinho disappointed.
GW36:
I already had x 13 DGW players and moved Weghorst to Richarlison earlier this week as I was right on the money for my plan, the other two moves were going to be:
Sa to Ederson
Targett to Matip
or
Sa to Schmeichel
Targett to Dias
This would give me x 15 DGW players and I'd hit the bench boost. It's always easy to make your bench look artificially strong when lining up a bench boost when every player doubles, but if I made the above moves then I think my genuine (weakest bench) would be
Ederson
TAA / Matip / James
Salah / Gordon / Coutinho / Saka
Kane / Richarlison / Watkins
Pickford / Davies / Kulusevski / Cash
I think it's fair to pick Gordon above Kulu as his fixtures are better. It's not a very strong bench in terms of fixtures but all should play twice so I'd be hopeful of starting at x 16 appearance points and then see what they each get. Obviously could be minus points!
When I factor in a -8 to get the above I'm now in two minds if I should BB in GW37 instead, I can get a full team of DGW players for GW36 (the same team as above but Pickford/Cash play as I don't bring in Ederson/Matip) avoid the -8, and as I've already got six Villa/Everton for GW37 I would play
Pickford
TAA / Cash / James
Salah / Gordon / Coutinho / Kulusevski
Kane / Watkins / Richarlison
Sa / Davies / Saka / Matip (transferred in for Targett)
My bench has no DGW players but there is no -8 and it's:
Sa home v Norwich
Davies home v Burnley
Saka away v Newcastle
Matip away v Southampton (could be any defender up to 6.2m)
I'm thinking that the above bench +8 points beats my bench in GW36..........but getting four extra fixtures this week gives me four extra tickets for one of them to get something decent and I also get a City defender in plus an extra Liverpool defender.
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
This is the perennial problem with the BB; people don't factor in the cost before and after and just look at the headline score, sometimes with a false bench to pad things as well. Good that you are taking an honest look at it.
I'd tend to agree that BB37 +8 points looks better. Your nominal bench in GW36 isn't that great - both Spurs & Villa face Liverpool in one game and the second games aren't easy CSs either so Davies/Cash could easily deliver not very much. It's often the defender prospects that define BB potential in my experience. I also don't see that the GW36 main team is much worse with Pickford playing and it's not certain that Matip starts twice anyway.
The nice thing about BB37 is that the bench has genuinely good prospects, even if fewer fixtures, and whatever you score with it will be a genuine bonus. Personally I will FH37 but your BB team is so well set that it might be hard to match your score that week.
I think a halfway house might also be good; Targett Dias in GW36, play Dias instead of Cash and then BB37. The hit would have a strong chance of paying for itself in GW36 and would give you a transfer in reserve for GW37 in case of injury - or if not needed you'd have 2 FTs in GW38.
Interesting looking at your team history. Like so many managers inside 100k you seem to have spent the last 18-20 weeks treading water. It's almost as if final positions in the OR were set by Xmas.
I'd tend to agree that BB37 +8 points looks better. Your nominal bench in GW36 isn't that great - both Spurs & Villa face Liverpool in one game and the second games aren't easy CSs either so Davies/Cash could easily deliver not very much. It's often the defender prospects that define BB potential in my experience. I also don't see that the GW36 main team is much worse with Pickford playing and it's not certain that Matip starts twice anyway.
The nice thing about BB37 is that the bench has genuinely good prospects, even if fewer fixtures, and whatever you score with it will be a genuine bonus. Personally I will FH37 but your BB team is so well set that it might be hard to match your score that week.
I think a halfway house might also be good; Targett Dias in GW36, play Dias instead of Cash and then BB37. The hit would have a strong chance of paying for itself in GW36 and would give you a transfer in reserve for GW37 in case of injury - or if not needed you'd have 2 FTs in GW38.
Interesting looking at your team history. Like so many managers inside 100k you seem to have spent the last 18-20 weeks treading water. It's almost as if final positions in the OR were set by Xmas.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Cheers for the feedback Ruth! I was just thinking before I checked back in that I may split the difference and take a -4 this week but keep the BB for next week which is a massive turnaround for me as I've been 95% set on BB 36 for weeks now.
I've always been in complete agreement with you on the BB, I don't particulary like it (and have recently read it may be binned off next season?), like you say, lots ignore the cost of setting it up and getting out of it, and all you'll see on social media this week is people saying they got X amount of points without any look at the negative costs associated with playing the chip.
Anyway, I think whatever happens I won't do as well as my bench has done in other weeks this season, I've had some crazy high scores on my bench this season, more than I can ever remember!
With regards to my season, yes, I've been unable to move no matter what I've done. I tried playing aggressive with the early 2nd WC (like you did), I've taken hits, used some gambles on the C, attacked the DGW's, but nothing has worked. Frustrating because I had a great start, far better than usual although to be fair rank is meaningless early season as so many teams bunched together. I'll have a closer look at the end but I know there were several GW's where I was absolutely slaughtered on my C choice - Havertz/Salah - Anontio/Bowen - Ronaldo/Bruno.
I've always been in complete agreement with you on the BB, I don't particulary like it (and have recently read it may be binned off next season?), like you say, lots ignore the cost of setting it up and getting out of it, and all you'll see on social media this week is people saying they got X amount of points without any look at the negative costs associated with playing the chip.
Anyway, I think whatever happens I won't do as well as my bench has done in other weeks this season, I've had some crazy high scores on my bench this season, more than I can ever remember!
With regards to my season, yes, I've been unable to move no matter what I've done. I tried playing aggressive with the early 2nd WC (like you did), I've taken hits, used some gambles on the C, attacked the DGW's, but nothing has worked. Frustrating because I had a great start, far better than usual although to be fair rank is meaningless early season as so many teams bunched together. I'll have a closer look at the end but I know there were several GW's where I was absolutely slaughtered on my C choice - Havertz/Salah - Anontio/Bowen - Ronaldo/Bruno.
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Yes, indeed so. Me too. I haven't looked at it thoroughly but my impression is that captaincy has been absolutely crucial this season, even more so than in a regular season. So many DGWs in play have magnified the swings it has caused and last time I looked I was something like 200 points behind Joccki on captaincy alone. And that was without doing anything ridiculous or random.Gambit wrote:I'll have a closer look at the end but I know there were several GW's where I was absolutely slaughtered on my C choice - Havertz/Salah - Antonio/Bowen - Ronaldo/Bruno.
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Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Yep, I have seen a few posters mention this, and I see Gambit’s run…Ruth_NZ wrote:
Interesting looking at your team history. Like so many managers inside 100k you seem to have spent the last 18-20 weeks treading water. It's almost as if final positions in the OR were set by Xmas.
…and add mine:
Even more of a drag as I had this last season too :
It’s got very tedious!
I fixture plan, I never miss a GW deadline, I read on here a lot, I watch MOTD , but I just seem to get nowhere.
Perhaps we need some coaching to hit that next level up
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Sure, I could offer that. Just as long as you accept that it is just as likely to take you to the next level down.jacksosi wrote:Perhaps we need some coaching to hit that next level up?
It's all about risk, isn't it? You have to give variance a chance to work for you, knowing that at the same time you are giving it a chance to work against you. Stay close to the safety zone and treading water will be the result.
It's very hard to get an edge in FPL nowadays.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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To be fair, I’ve been trying to move against the crowd for ages!
One of those reviews websites has my team at above 90% for risk and its been like that for weeks/months.
The early 2nd WC, three everton players, the C on the likes of Havertz, hits most weeks (maybe not needed in light of my bench points).....I’ve tried most things without success.
I’ll try to look more at the end, but perhaps one thing I didn’t do is make a big change on a heavy hitter, swapping Salah for Mane etc.
One of those reviews websites has my team at above 90% for risk and its been like that for weeks/months.
The early 2nd WC, three everton players, the C on the likes of Havertz, hits most weeks (maybe not needed in light of my bench points).....I’ve tried most things without success.
I’ll try to look more at the end, but perhaps one thing I didn’t do is make a big change on a heavy hitter, swapping Salah for Mane etc.
- Ruth_NZ
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Good for you!
In that case you are up against the second factor, which is that when you encourage variance it is very easy to lose on the swings what you gain on the roundabouts. That's why the easiest way to make it decisive is (a) to drop and replace one, highly owned player, or (b) to choose a lower-EO captain. Doing those things is like a one-shot jolt of variance rather than having 5 or 6 players different (where maybe 3 do better than the template and 3 worse).
The big downfall moments of my season have been from doing that. Captaining Havertz for 3 points in a 7-0 win while Salah had a 24-point haul or whatever it was against United. Or captaining Aubameyang for -1 doubled in a game when he missed a penalty and an open goal and then got a late booking to put the cherry on the cake. Those kind of big swings can be huge, as I also found positively last week with Son(c) - one of my few notable captain successes of the season, which jumped me considerably in the OR.
But I did mean the thing about it being hard to get an edge. To do that nowadays you have to come up with stuff that has escaped the proliferation of content providers, some of whom are very good at the game, or you have to have wonderful judgement or you have to get more lucky than most others.
There's a channel on youtube by a guy who calls himself agadmator - a chess channel. He covers all the current tournaments and also analyses great players of the past. And one thing he always refers to is 'engine lines' - in other words what the current best chess engines recommend. Those computers are now so good and can analyse so deeply that it is almost impossible for a human player to compete. So sometimes he'll say that the absolute best move as recommended by the engine is x but it's a horrible move that no human player would want to play.
Anyway, my point is that we are now more or less competing against an engine. The FPL engines are not as developed as chess engines are and football (and thus FPL) has many, many more variables and uncertainties than chess, so the engine recommendation will never be perfect. Nevertheless, you are going to have to run really hot or get a lot of judgements spot on to beat it. And that's what we amateurs are up against.
In that case you are up against the second factor, which is that when you encourage variance it is very easy to lose on the swings what you gain on the roundabouts. That's why the easiest way to make it decisive is (a) to drop and replace one, highly owned player, or (b) to choose a lower-EO captain. Doing those things is like a one-shot jolt of variance rather than having 5 or 6 players different (where maybe 3 do better than the template and 3 worse).
The big downfall moments of my season have been from doing that. Captaining Havertz for 3 points in a 7-0 win while Salah had a 24-point haul or whatever it was against United. Or captaining Aubameyang for -1 doubled in a game when he missed a penalty and an open goal and then got a late booking to put the cherry on the cake. Those kind of big swings can be huge, as I also found positively last week with Son(c) - one of my few notable captain successes of the season, which jumped me considerably in the OR.
But I did mean the thing about it being hard to get an edge. To do that nowadays you have to come up with stuff that has escaped the proliferation of content providers, some of whom are very good at the game, or you have to have wonderful judgement or you have to get more lucky than most others.
There's a channel on youtube by a guy who calls himself agadmator - a chess channel. He covers all the current tournaments and also analyses great players of the past. And one thing he always refers to is 'engine lines' - in other words what the current best chess engines recommend. Those computers are now so good and can analyse so deeply that it is almost impossible for a human player to compete. So sometimes he'll say that the absolute best move as recommended by the engine is x but it's a horrible move that no human player would want to play.
Anyway, my point is that we are now more or less competing against an engine. The FPL engines are not as developed as chess engines are and football (and thus FPL) has many, many more variables and uncertainties than chess, so the engine recommendation will never be perfect. Nevertheless, you are going to have to run really hot or get a lot of judgements spot on to beat it. And that's what we amateurs are up against.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
The Targett to Dias move is done and I'm sat in the halfway house on GW36 Eve
Team is
Pickford
TAA / Dias / James
Salah (C) / Saka (vc) Gordon / Coutinho or Kulusevski ?
Kane / Richarlison / Watkins
Sa / Coutinho or Kulusevski ? / Cash / Davies
The bench boost is shelved until GW37 but it does seem strange to be sat with all 15 DGW players and not bench boosting! I do think I'm better set next week; can't see Sa getting much, and I expect Spurs to concede in both games, Cash has decent prospects against Burnley but less so Liverpool which means most of the hope would be on the midfielder.
Speaking of which, really can't decide who to play, first thought was Coutinho but some talk on the Villa forums of him being benched/rested v Liverpool, I'm sure some of it is just joking of SG resting players v Liverpool but some think he will want to be more combative against the high energy Liverpool midfield? Kulu plays twice I'm sure, and he's been very good, tough choice on who to bench....
Team is
Pickford
TAA / Dias / James
Salah (C) / Saka (vc) Gordon / Coutinho or Kulusevski ?
Kane / Richarlison / Watkins
Sa / Coutinho or Kulusevski ? / Cash / Davies
The bench boost is shelved until GW37 but it does seem strange to be sat with all 15 DGW players and not bench boosting! I do think I'm better set next week; can't see Sa getting much, and I expect Spurs to concede in both games, Cash has decent prospects against Burnley but less so Liverpool which means most of the hope would be on the midfielder.
Speaking of which, really can't decide who to play, first thought was Coutinho but some talk on the Villa forums of him being benched/rested v Liverpool, I'm sure some of it is just joking of SG resting players v Liverpool but some think he will want to be more combative against the high energy Liverpool midfield? Kulu plays twice I'm sure, and he's been very good, tough choice on who to bench....
- Ruth_NZ
- Grumpy Old Gorilla
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
I'd definitely play Kulusevski. Spurs are more likely to score against Liverpool than Villa are and the NLD will surely have goals in it too.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Pickford
TAA / Dias / James
Salah (C) / Saka (vc) / Gordon / Kulusevski
Kane / Richarlison / Watkins
Sa / Coutinho / Cash / Davies
and no BB is what I finished on.
Good luck all!
TAA / Dias / James
Salah (C) / Saka (vc) / Gordon / Kulusevski
Kane / Richarlison / Watkins
Sa / Coutinho / Cash / Davies
and no BB is what I finished on.
Good luck all!
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
GW36:
A disastrous 82 (-4) and a rank collapse down to 123K!
When I said my team was stuck I was wrong, there was clearly plenty of scope for them to drop like a stone with my rank almost doubling I have to go back all the way to GW16 to find when I was lower in the table.
I'd posted previously that my team had a risk rating of over 90% and I guess that's what happens when popular players (especially on the FH teams) do well, the likes of Son, KDB, Cancelo, Laporte etc just destroyed me. The one City player (Dias) I had didn't even make the 2nd half in the first game and is now a transfer I have to make.
The only thing that went well was not using the BB as other than Davies they all blanked.
GW37:
I've been screwed this week now with injuries, Dias has to go, Salah has to go, and I'd say Watkins too, that's a -8.
Will still have to play the BB as this week looks better than GW38.
Not really looked at transfers yet as I've been watching the cup final, initial thoughts are:
Watkins to Ings - I think Ings starts v Palace and also gets the Burnley game on Thursday, with Watkins coming back for the away game at City in GW38
for Dias and Salah I can afford anybody.
Pickford
TAA / Cash / James / Davies
Coutinho / Kulusevski / Gordon / Saka
Kane / Richarlison
Sa / ?????? / ?????? / ??????
Bench Boost will be used, the three ????? are the players I decide to bring in.
A disastrous 82 (-4) and a rank collapse down to 123K!
When I said my team was stuck I was wrong, there was clearly plenty of scope for them to drop like a stone with my rank almost doubling I have to go back all the way to GW16 to find when I was lower in the table.
I'd posted previously that my team had a risk rating of over 90% and I guess that's what happens when popular players (especially on the FH teams) do well, the likes of Son, KDB, Cancelo, Laporte etc just destroyed me. The one City player (Dias) I had didn't even make the 2nd half in the first game and is now a transfer I have to make.
The only thing that went well was not using the BB as other than Davies they all blanked.
GW37:
I've been screwed this week now with injuries, Dias has to go, Salah has to go, and I'd say Watkins too, that's a -8.
Will still have to play the BB as this week looks better than GW38.
Not really looked at transfers yet as I've been watching the cup final, initial thoughts are:
Watkins to Ings - I think Ings starts v Palace and also gets the Burnley game on Thursday, with Watkins coming back for the away game at City in GW38
for Dias and Salah I can afford anybody.
Pickford
TAA / Cash / James / Davies
Coutinho / Kulusevski / Gordon / Saka
Kane / Richarlison
Sa / ?????? / ?????? / ??????
Bench Boost will be used, the three ????? are the players I decide to bring in.
- Hogmeister
- Dumbledore
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- FPL:
Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Been a tough week for most of us, I scrambled to exactly 100 points, but all 4 of my closest mini league rivals scored 140+
A few initial thoughts on your team -
Son has to come in for Salah (I made that move tonight, after the cup final). Just realised you already have 3 Spurs, so Davies to Digne as well?
Have heard a rumour (mentioned on the Let’s Talk FPL stream) that Kulu could be ill (so you need a decent first sub)…
Given the above, is Watkins to Ings a bit of a luxury transfer??
A few initial thoughts on your team -
Son has to come in for Salah (I made that move tonight, after the cup final). Just realised you already have 3 Spurs, so Davies to Digne as well?
Have heard a rumour (mentioned on the Let’s Talk FPL stream) that Kulu could be ill (so you need a decent first sub)…
Given the above, is Watkins to Ings a bit of a luxury transfer??
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- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3427
- Joined: 02 Nov 2014, 16:36
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Yeah I’ve seen the Kulu news That could pretty much kill any chance of using the BB as ive got Salah and Dias 100% missing and Kulu and Watkins likely missing (watkins could get some minutes with two games)Hogmeister wrote: ↑14 May 2022, 22:40 Been a tough week for most of us, I scrambled to exactly 100 points, but all 4 of my closest mini league rivals scored 140+
A few initial thoughts on your team -
Son has to come in for Salah (I made that move tonight, after the cup final). Just realised you already have 3 Spurs, so Davies to Digne as well?
Have heard a rumour (mentioned on the Let’s Talk FPL stream) that Kulu could be ill (so you need a decent first sub)…
Given the above, is Watkins to Ings a bit of a luxury transfer??
What a shite end to the season, my team looked rock solid for the BB this week.
- Hogmeister
- Dumbledore
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Rumour this morning on the streams that Watkins will, after all, start.
So obviously he's a doubt, but is that enough for a -4 sideways move? I think I'd probably stick - and in fact, rather spookily, as I was typing that, the stream I'm listening to said exactly that! I think your priorities are elsewhere.
So obviously he's a doubt, but is that enough for a -4 sideways move? I think I'd probably stick - and in fact, rather spookily, as I was typing that, the stream I'm listening to said exactly that! I think your priorities are elsewhere.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Just seen the news on Watkins, looks like it will be a -8 and back to BB. Kulu looks like being out though. Trying to look with GW38 in mind too and really like the Leicester fixture in GW38. Don't have the players for a BB38 so would have to hope that my BB this week at least pays for the hit and sets me up for GW38 too.Hogmeister wrote: ↑15 May 2022, 09:39 Rumour this morning on the streams that Watkins will, after all, start.
So obviously he's a doubt, but is that enough for a -4 sideways move? I think I'd probably stick - and in fact, rather spookily, as I was typing that, the stream I'm listening to said exactly that! I think your priorities are elsewhere.
Salah to Son
Kulu to Maddison/Zaha
Dias to Cancelo/Castange, can afford anyone
Pickford
TAA / Cash / James / Davies
Coutinho / Son / Gordon / Saka
Kane / Richarlison
Sa / Watkins / Maddison / ??????
- Hogmeister
- Dumbledore
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
My situation is am in serious danger of my first season outside the top 100k in 12 years
This week I'm looking at:
- Ramsdale Pickford
- Salah Son
- Kilman (my bench fodder) Cash for a -4.
The plan being to play Cash this week for the doubler and bench Robbo (who will prob not start), and then bench Cash for GW38.
Also possibly Saka Maddison taking it to -8.
So with all of the above I'll have (doublers in bold)..
Pickford
TAA Cancelo James Cash
Son (c) Mount Maddison Barnes Kulu
Kane
Bench (strong bench because possible illness/rotation): Nketiah, Robbo, 4.5, Foster
This week I'm looking at:
- Ramsdale Pickford
- Salah Son
- Kilman (my bench fodder) Cash for a -4.
The plan being to play Cash this week for the doubler and bench Robbo (who will prob not start), and then bench Cash for GW38.
Also possibly Saka Maddison taking it to -8.
So with all of the above I'll have (doublers in bold)..
Pickford
TAA Cancelo James Cash
Son (c) Mount Maddison Barnes Kulu
Kane
Bench (strong bench because possible illness/rotation): Nketiah, Robbo, 4.5, Foster
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- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3427
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
Not sure I'd lose Saka, will be a tough game but they have to win.
You think Maddison plays both?
This looks like being just my 2nd time outside the top 100K in my 12th season, a real collapse unless I have a great final two weeks
You think Maddison plays both?
This looks like being just my 2nd time outside the top 100K in my 12th season, a real collapse unless I have a great final two weeks
- Hogmeister
- Dumbledore
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
You're echoing my thoughts, it's a close one - and the second of the doublers is Chelsea away, while both team have good GW38 fixtures.
Have just trawled all the FFH team reveals and there was only one guy doing that move, and that was someone who is going ultra differential to make up ground. He's also captaining Maddison.
So yeah, I think I'll probably save the four points and stick with Saka.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
I'm only thinking of getting him because it's for Kulu not Saka, I'd want to get at least 90 this week and then I'd play him in GW38Hogmeister wrote: ↑15 May 2022, 10:11You're echoing my thoughts, it's a close one - and the second of the doublers is Chelsea away, while both team have good GW38 fixtures.
Have just trawled all the FFH team reveals and there was only one guy doing that move, and that was someone who is going ultra differential to make up ground. He's also captaining Maddison.
So yeah, I think I'll probably save the four points and stick with Saka.
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- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3427
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
GW37:
A strong penultimate GW with 117 (-8) and a hefty green arrow of over 50k places, now back well inside the top 100K at 73K My team matched (or even beat) plenty of FH teams so it was a really strong week for me.
As expected the BB was a damp squib with Sa benched for Ruddy! (I thought he was dead) and Castagne coming into my team as TAA didn't play. This left me just 8 points on the bench but this paid for the hit and I'm now well set for GW38.
The BB is a poor chip and I really hope the rumours are true that it's being binned next season.
GW38:
The way the fixtures have fallen and the league is set means I can see some very big hauls this week. In my own team as it currently stands I've got five players I could easily captain - Kane/Son/TAA/James/Maddison, and in the wider game there are a host of other great options.
I'm planning on a -4 to add in another midfielder and striker, looking at lots of players at the moment:
Strikers - Vardy/ Lukaku /Toney
Midfielders - Mount / Havertz / Diaz / Eriksen / Foden
to name but a few, there are so many good options this week.
My team minus the new players is
Pickford
TAA /James / Castagne / Davies
Son / Maddison / Saka / ????
Kane / ?????
I've not even ruled out a -8 to get one of Cancelo / Alonso / Robertson in
Will hold off making any moves until just before deadline as I'm sure there will be some early leaks.
A strong penultimate GW with 117 (-8) and a hefty green arrow of over 50k places, now back well inside the top 100K at 73K My team matched (or even beat) plenty of FH teams so it was a really strong week for me.
As expected the BB was a damp squib with Sa benched for Ruddy! (I thought he was dead) and Castagne coming into my team as TAA didn't play. This left me just 8 points on the bench but this paid for the hit and I'm now well set for GW38.
The BB is a poor chip and I really hope the rumours are true that it's being binned next season.
GW38:
The way the fixtures have fallen and the league is set means I can see some very big hauls this week. In my own team as it currently stands I've got five players I could easily captain - Kane/Son/TAA/James/Maddison, and in the wider game there are a host of other great options.
I'm planning on a -4 to add in another midfielder and striker, looking at lots of players at the moment:
Strikers - Vardy/ Lukaku /Toney
Midfielders - Mount / Havertz / Diaz / Eriksen / Foden
to name but a few, there are so many good options this week.
My team minus the new players is
Pickford
TAA /James / Castagne / Davies
Son / Maddison / Saka / ????
Kane / ?????
I've not even ruled out a -8 to get one of Cancelo / Alonso / Robertson in
Will hold off making any moves until just before deadline as I'm sure there will be some early leaks.
- Smurphy Paw
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13/14: FPL 1792; FIFA 14 Top 700.
17/18: FPL 696th; loads of mini-League wins and side game promotions
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog
A great game week for you.
For GW38 there’s no need for the -8. A hit for a defender in a one week punt demands of them a clean sheet to break even; plus an attacking return to be in profit.
For GW38 there’s no need for the -8. A hit for a defender in a one week punt demands of them a clean sheet to break even; plus an attacking return to be in profit.
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