Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

[Gambit]

Right then, after years of putting off getting my thoughts down in my own thread like many others on here do, I've finally decided to bite the bullet and put in a bit of effort!

In the past it's always been "not today" but if I don't set one up at long last I likely never will. Really enjoy reading the others on here such as Ruth, SP, AR, Joccki, Patrician etc, lots more but can't list them all.

I'm hoping it will help me as I find I can lose track sometimes of what my plan is/was as FPL can be so chaotic and then real life gets in the way and before I know it I've confused myself with about ten different plans.......

Anyway, I hit the WC this week to:

Pickford / DDG
TAA / Cancelo / Dawson / Davies / Cucurella
Son / Jota / Gray / Bowen / Raphina
Kane / DCL / Antonio

The main tactic wasn't to target the doubles, although that was a factor, it was to reshape my squad as I thought it had gone a bit stale in recent weeks and still having two FH's should lessen the need for a later season WC.

I would have had five players in the Arsenal - City game, who got the following:

Ramsdale - 2
Lacazette - 1
Foden - 0, not in squad
Grealish - 0, on bench again
Cancelo - 2, happy to keep him

When you add to this:

James, injured
Alonso - poor fixtures, not playing well
Salah - soon to leave for a few weeks
Livramento - not fit,
Foster - injured, shipping goals for fun

It just screamed to me that I needed to change things, I did consider the FH but that would just put me back to the same place next week and I thought many of the players I took this week I would still want on a WC in 22. So rather than take yet more hits (I'm an aggressive manager with hits and will take far more than most) I decided to pull the pin and hit the WC.

So far, not a bad start, frustrated with the Kane blank and will make a decision on switching to Ronaldo when/if any doubles are announced for GW22. Could have done with West Ham holding out for the clean sheet but at least a return for C Antonio.

Will see what the rest of the GW brings.........

[Ruth_NZ]

Welcome to the madhouse!

If you haven't checked it out, try BobbyFetta's blog, full of nice charts that you can stare at for hours without having any clue what it all means. Strangely satisfying.

[Pirlo's Beard]

[Aldershot Rejects]

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and desperately hoping your wildcard is a success

[Smurphy Paw]

Welcome to one of the most under-read corners of online FPL. Some Twitter FPLers would struggle to know what to do with this level of interaction. I mean, have they truly created any content if they have fewer than 25,000 followers?

As you will have seen, like number of others I largely use my posts as a written sense check. I actively welcome comments of the, ‘No, I’d look at that again if I were you’ type. I am time poor and don’t have the capacity to create some of the wonderful stuff that others add in: Ruth’s theorising; Joccki’s ability to see the future before the rest of us; as mentioned already, Bobby’s charts (& Pat’s when he shares them); Stena’s olde skool ability to save money drafting a telegram; Stevie’s therapy sessions when he’s about to give up. Again; and all the rest of the diaries, frequent or irregular.

I look forward to reading your posts and seeing what you bring. I might even read the initial post some time. Not today though

Good luck with the wild card

SP

[Hogmeister]

Well done for doing this, was thinking I really should do one myself this year (having finally quit TFF to focus exclusively on FPL), but like you say, it’s just too easy to think “I’ll do that some other time, but not today”. So congrats for biting the bullet and I’ll look forward to seeing how it progresses.

These threads seem (alongside TRK) to have become the lifeblood of FISO - some years ago I used to follow Ironfist’s “The Mother of all RMT’s”, then the one that IMO was the best by a street mile for a number of years was STC, originally started as an RMT blog by Sammy The Crab. Then that dwindled as some of the primary “content creators” on that thread, like Sammy and Mav, stopped posting there.

In recent years the baton has, as you say, been picked up by Ruth, Joccki, SP, AR, Stevie and others.

Throughout this I’ve been something of a “parasite” on such threads, getting more or less involved as the whim takes me, rarely contributing much other than comments like “I prefer player A over player B”, or “I wouldn’t play BB this week” etc. But really benefitting from the insight that reading such informed discussions brings.

And I 100% endorse the above comment from SP about the comparison with twitter, where the level/quality of interaction is miniscule. I have joined the “FPL twitter community” (and also started watching FPL youtube streams) this year for the first time, and I do find it useful, but only as a source of facts, figures and (mostly) opinions. There’s little or no room for any in-depth discussion on anything.

Good luck with the blog, with this GW and the season ahead. It’ll be interesting to see how our teams do in the coming weeks and months, as right now I see that they are, coincidentally, on exactly the same points and OR (1280, 75k).

Our teams are very different though - I didn’t WC this week, but instead had a rush of blood to the head and took a 12-point hit! I haven’t used any of the chips yet and the primary reason for not wildcarding is I’m still reluctant to do any significant planning beyond the next 2-3 GWs, given the ongoing covid disruption. So I’m still pretty much playing week by week, with a strong bench to insure (a bit) against postponements, with a view to being able to exploit future blank and double GWs with a full hand of chips at my disposal.

Anyway, I’ll stop waffling….

tldr: The blog’s a great idea, good luck

[Gambit]

Thanks for the comments all!

Glad I finally set it up, quite looking forward to keeping it updated.

Hogmeister - set one up, start of a New Year is the perfect time! With our teams neck and neck it would be good to read how we differ for the 2nd half of the season. Just had a look at the four players you sold and I binned them all too (sold ESR last week).

[Gambit]

Hmmm, not sure how wise starting a blog in the middle of double double gameweeks (that could still change!) was, but time for a quick update.

Not too much to say on GW21 as it hasn't finished yet but last Sunday was very annoying as despite Leeds and Everton plundering five goals between them I didn't get a single return from DCL, Gray, Raphina. To make matters worse, DCL skied a penalty and Raphina missed a half empty net.......on another day that's twenty points for DCL/Raphina and not the two I ended up with.

But anyway, all I can do now is hope the 2nd half of GW21 is a bit kinder to me.

For the recently announced DGW22 fixtures my team looks quite well set and I may stick with the plan of hitting the BB chip.

Currently got five DGW players (DDG/Cucurella, Davies,Son,Kane) and numerous players with a great single GW fixture.

I will almost certainly make two changes, Raphina will likely go for a DGW player and then I have a decision on Everton - will need to see how they look next week but considering something like Pickford to Sanchez, Raphina to Tielamans/Maddison

Other things I'm considering, either instead of above moves or as one extra move for a -8 (I won't take more than that):

Pickford to Foster (if he's back fit that's a nice saving and DGW straight away)
DCL to one of the Watford strikers, or even Chris Wood!
Kane to Ronaldo (very unlikely to do this, just Ronaldo is the one with a DGW who scares me a little)
Raphina/Gray to Trossard/Mcallister (if Leicester mids too risky ref injury/rotation)
Raphina to Mount, could maybe stretch to this depedning on the other move(s)


Burnley and Brentford don't appeal (other than Wood) and I think it's very likey that some of the SGW players from Liverpool and West Ham will outscore many of the DGW players.

So lots still up in the air, but BB does look good for me in DGW22, especially with a couple of transfers thrown in.

[Gambit]

Ouch! That Son injury is a kick in the stomach.

My plans will have to change now, initial thoughts were use Son to move for a United midfielder, but who? They are all sharing minutes and there isn’t one that stands out really, Greenwood has looked the most lively but he’s getting subbed off (unfairly imo) most games.

My next thought was use Son as a way of getting Ronaldo in, I’ve already got Kane so would give me the two biggest hitters of the DGW, the problem with this plan is it means losing one of Antonio or DCL, both have some really nice fixtures coming up and losing Antonio before Leeds at home could be costly, DLC has more doubles to come too. Its not an easy decision.

No rush to make a decision as still more time for things to change again.....

[Aldershot Rejects]

Ouch! That Son injury is a kick in the stomach.

My plans will have to change now, initial thoughts were use Son to move for a United midfielder, but who? They are all sharing minutes and there isn’t one that stands out really, Greenwood has looked the most lively but he’s getting subbed off (unfairly imo) most games.

My next thought was use Son as a way of getting Ronaldo in, I’ve already got Kane so would give me the two biggest hitters of the DGW, the problem with this plan is it means losing one of Antonio or DCL, both have some really nice fixtures coming up and losing Antonio before Leeds at home could be costly, DLC has more doubles to come too. Its not an easy decision.

No rush to make a decision as still more time for things to change again.....

I share your Son pain; completely changes my whole approach to the DGW. Whilst I am not mad keen on the Ronaldo move, I think that is where I will end up. I haven't got DCL but in your case I would probably dump Antonio for a couple of weeks. You then have a choice as to whether to dump Kane or Ronaldo when Salah comes back (and Ronaldo's fixtures are better).

I think I'm moving away from BB although I am pretty well set up - still too much uncertainty at this stage I think.

[Gambit]

Yeah, If I do go down the Ronaldo path then in 23 I would probably do Kane to Watford striker which would give me the money in the bank to get Salah back in one move.

Ideally I'd like one of the United midfielders to come to the fore but can't see it happening. For me, Greenwood would be playing most games but seems to be the easy option for Rangnick to sub off or leave out.

15th Jan away v Villa
19th Jan away v Brentford
22nd Jan home v West Ham

3 games in a week, will Ronaldo even play both games of the DGW?

Have toyed with the idea of ignoring Ronaldo and going Son & Raphina to Greenwood & Rashford (or Sancho) and hoping that across three games they get enough minutes to do some damage. I could also get in Bruno, say something like Son/Raphina to Bruno/Mcallister.

The big call being how risky to avoid Ronaldo?

Ignoring Ronaldo lets me keep both Antonio and DCL, it's just trying to find the midfield options that can compensate for his absence.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Ignoring Ronaldo lets me keep both Antonio and DCL, it's just trying to find the midfield options that can compensate for his absence.

I'm not sure there are any. I don't think there is any outstanding midfield option - all the names I've looked at are much of a muchness. Picking a Man Utd midfielder is a lucky dip (or more probably unlucky dip). Mount possibly at Chelsea although the Man City fixture is a dampner, Maddison/Tielemans I'd feel more positive about if Leicester didn't have most of their team out, although I may well end up there. Moura has great stats but only seems to get 70 mins per game (maybe that will change with Son out). After that, we are in Trossard-type territory which doesn't fill me with any excitement.

[From4corners]

What's going on.. I want to get rid of Greenwood and then there are others wanting to get Manchester United players in.. I seem to have missed the part where they are looking to rack up points.

[Gambit]

Meh, the GW ended with on disappointing 65 points, 20 points above average but a rank drop to 106K.

Can't help feel a little hard done to this week, I posted previously about being about 20 points down in the first half of the GW, and now in the 2nd half of the GW I lost all three Everton players to the cancelled game (should have been 6 points at least) and then had Antonio C and not Bowen so that's a 12 point swing.

Across the GW I think I'm about 40 points down due to variance, another time I'm hitting three figures.

That's FPL though and everbody gets kicked in the balls now and again.

GW22.

Son has to go, and now edging towards Antonio joining him.

The question is Ronaldo or Bruno? (or neither!.........)

My worry for Ronaldo is with three games in a week does he get reduced minutes/rested, and if so would it be against Brentford midweek which looks the best fixture. If he is carrying some kind of issue, even a minor one, I'd worry about him being on the bench midweek.

The advantage for going Bruno is I can then get a Watofrd striker, so would be Bruno with King/Dennis, with Ronaldo I'd be looking at a fairly cheap mid, such as Macallister.

Will have to wait for the pressers before making my moves, could just ignore United and go Maddison/Lukaku!

[Aldershot Rejects]

Meh, the GW ended with on disappointing 65 points, 20 points above average but a rank drop to 106K.

Can't help feel a little hard done to this week, I posted previously about being about 20 points down in the first half of the GW, and now in the 2nd half of the GW I lost all three Everton players to the cancelled game (should have been 6 points at least) and then had Antonio C and not Bowen so that's a 12 point swing.

Across the GW I think I'm about 40 points down due to variance, another time I'm hitting three figures.

That's FPL though and everbody gets kicked in the balls now and again.

GW23.

Son has to go, and now edging towards Antonio joining him.

The question is Ronaldo or Bruno? (or neither!.........)

My worry for Ronaldo is with three games in a week does he get reduced minutes/rested, and if so would it be against Brentford midweek which looks the best fixture. If he is carrying some kind of issue, even a minor one, I'd worry about him being on the bench midweek.

The advantage for going Bruno is I can then get a Watofrd striker, so would be Bruno with King/Dennis, with Ronaldo I'd be looking at a fairly cheap mid, such as Macallister.

Will have to wait for the pressers before making my moves, could just ignore United and go Maddison/Lukaku!

Yeah, a frustrating week for you. So often FPL feels like a case of nearly doing well. I was a few points up on you but that was solely down to Bowen (C) and fortunately I only had 2 Everton players. The attraction for me was not just the dgw but also the Norwich fixture so hopefully they can still reward you.

Looking ahead, I'm also trying to decide on Ronaldo or not. I can get their fairly easily albeit for a hit. Original plan was to captain him but that is looking far too risky at the moment. Also adds in an extra transfer to get back to Salah. Having said that I have pretty much no interest in Bruno - Maddison interests me more.

Hopefully we'll get some more news tomorrow.

[Gambit]

Meh, the GW ended with on disappointing 65 points, 20 points above average but a rank drop to 106K.

Can't help feel a little hard done to this week, I posted previously about being about 20 points down in the first half of the GW, and now in the 2nd half of the GW I lost all three Everton players to the cancelled game (should have been 6 points at least) and then had Antonio C and not Bowen so that's a 12 point swing.

Across the GW I think I'm about 40 points down due to variance, another time I'm hitting three figures.

That's FPL though and everbody gets kicked in the balls now and again.

GW23.

Son has to go, and now edging towards Antonio joining him.

The question is Ronaldo or Bruno? (or neither!.........)

My worry for Ronaldo is with three games in a week does he get reduced minutes/rested, and if so would it be against Brentford midweek which looks the best fixture. If he is carrying some kind of issue, even a minor one, I'd worry about him being on the bench midweek.

The advantage for going Bruno is I can then get a Watofrd striker, so would be Bruno with King/Dennis, with Ronaldo I'd be looking at a fairly cheap mid, such as Macallister.

Will have to wait for the pressers before making my moves, could just ignore United and go Maddison/Lukaku!

Yeah, a frustrating week for you. So often FPL feels like a case of nearly doing well. I was a few points up on you but that was solely down to Bowen (C) and fortunately I only had 2 Everton players. The attraction for me was not just the dgw but also the Norwich fixture so hopefully they can still reward you.

Looking ahead, I'm also trying to decide on Ronaldo or not. I can get their fairly easily albeit for a hit. Original plan was to captain him but that is looking far too risky at the moment. Also adds in an extra transfer to get back to Salah. Having said that I have pretty much no interest in Bruno - Maddison interests me more.

Hopefully we'll get some more news tomorrow.

I’m not overly sold on Bruno either to be honest, and it may be a case of making a schoolboy error and just trying to spend my budget.

If I don’t go Ronaldo I’m looking where can I spend the money......and that could be a mistake.

Villa away is a very tough game, they should have won the other night, maybe just ignoring United is the best move.

Purely on form and fixtures it should be Maddison with King/Dennis

[Gambit]

My word, GW22 now looking like it could turn into a debacle!

Leicester v Burnley off, talk of Burnley v Watford being cancelled, and now news that Spurs v Arsenal is at risk!

What does this mean for my team? well I won't be bringing in Maddison and now very worried about moving for King/Dennis.

Who to C is now very problematic, it's been on Kane all week purely as I thought he was the most nailed to play twice, but if Spurs only have the one game I'm struggling to find a DGW player I'd captain. It's very possible somebody like Bowen or TAA is the highest scoring player this week with a single fixture.

About three hours to deadline so will have a play around and see what I can come up with, hopefully some news on more games being confirmed on/off.

I normally play football on a Friday evening so would be forced to make my move(s) about now but injured this week so can actually wait until a bit closer to deadline.

It's very difficult at the moment to put any kind of plan together, luck always plays a huge part in FPL but this is on another level at the moment.

[Gambit]

T-minus one hour to deadline!

Looking like I’m going to pull the trigger on Son & Antonio to Macallister and Ronaldo.

Will move the C from Kane to Ronaldo, not 100% sure on Ronaldo ref his minutes or fixture strength but with the NLD in doubt he looks the best pick from the DGW players.

Currently playing Davies but if he only has one fixture then would play Dawson or Cancelo instead, fingers crossed for some last minute info!

[Gambit]

Decision to be made on NLD tomorrow are the latest reports!

Start Davies and gamble he plays twice or play Dawson/Cancelo and gamble the NLD is off?

[Gambit]

GW22:

62(-4) and a red arrow down to 115k

Despite posting that I wasn't sure Ronaldo would play all the minutes I still went with him anyway, this error was compounded by the monster Bruno score, I know I'm not the only one to suffer on this but still very annoying.

To be fair, I wasn't 100% sure on Bruno either and I was spooked by the late GW22 breaking news that Spurs v Arsenal would be called off (which it was), this meant that I didn't want Kane as C (another error as he was my highest scoring player!) so I tried to play safe with Ronaldo as C. This is two weeks running now I've lost DGW players to cancelled games

Adding even more woe to the GW is had I gone Bruno I would have brought in King/Dennis, and although they both blanked last week I would have had one already in place for their DGW23 which would have saved a transfer. So pretty much misery all round

DGW23:

The fitness doubt over Ronaldo means he has gone for King, I know there is a rumour of a DGW25 for United so toyed with the idea of keeping him and losing Kane but Kane has more games in hand and could also have a DGW announced at short notice + no fitness issues around him and he's looked quite sharp in the last few games.

I've also brought in KDB, this has me lining up:

DDG
TAA / Cancelo / Cucurella
KDB / Jota / Gray / Raphina (v)
Kane / DCL / King (C)

Pickford / Bowen / Dawson / Davies

Could be a mistake to bench Bowen but Moyes has said West Ham are a bit tired and they were poor against Leeds, hoping that Big Dunc fires up Everton and gets a tune out of Gray and DCL.

After two weeks of being on the wrong side of the coin - Antonio C not Bowen, Ronaldo not Bruno, I'm hoping that it's third time lucky this week and I don't get killed in the King v Dennis battle!

Good luck for DGW23 all

[Ruth_NZ]

I suppose KDB is your Salah placeholder?

Everton have been a dire disappointment recently. Still can't believe they sacked Rafa having just let him sell Digne and buy Mykolenko and Patterson a few days earlier.

[Gambit]

I suppose KDB is your Salah placeholder?

Everton have been a dire disappointment recently. Still can't believe they sacked Rafa having just let him sell Digne and buy Mykolenko and Patterson a few days earlier.

Yes, will be getting Salah back so thought I may as well get KDB for a couple of nice fixtures and set up my structure to fit Salah straight back in.

0.1 away from doing it in one move although still time for Salah to drop again and KDB to rise again so could be possible.

If I do need to raise a bit of cash then Everton players will be where I'll look, as you say they have been a real letdown, still good fixtures though and three games to add so if they can sort themselves out.......

[Gambit]

Finally, seems like an age since the last GW started!

Team looks ok for this GW so decided to roll the FT which will give me 2 FT's for the DGW next week.

DDG
TAA Cancelo Davies Dawson
Bowen Jota Gray Raphina KDB (c)
Kane (vc)

Pickford DCL King Cucurella

Main decisions this week are the C and who to bench.

Have been swapping between Cancelo / KDB / Kane mainly and finally landed on KDB, I've been badly hit this year with wrong C choices so hoping for a change in fortune! Think I've got six decent C options this week.

Starting Raphina and Dawson above DCL and King, think DCL will be on the bench after their good win in the cup and his lack of minutes, King will start but it's a very tough game and fancy Dawson more for the CS than I do King for a goal. Raphina has a very tough game but he's supposed to be fit and should get more minutes than DCL and Leeds capable of scoring against most teams.

Good luck all

[Gambit]

GW24

76 points and a small green arrow to the cusp of 100K, that's my first green arrow for five weeks! hopefully out of the slump now.

KDB C worked out well, as did playing Dawson above King & DCL.

The Gray early injury was just another Everton fail after I tripled up on them!

GW25

2 FT's and pondering how and where to attack the DGW.

KDB (who was only a placeholder for Salah) looks the prime candidate to fund a United midfielder, could be a risk to lose him before a great fixture but then again he could easily be rested before the midweek CL game.

Gray is injured so the more agressive plan is KDB & Gray out which could fund:

Bruno & Trossard
Rashford & Pogba
Sancho & Pogba

The other option is just to use one FT and do KDB to Bruno and then have two FT's for DGW26 where I will be wanting to make multiple moves.

No real standout C for me this week other than KDB who worries me anyway due to a possible benching so feel I have to go for a United player to get a strong C choice. Bruno looks the safest bet, Sancho was very good against Burnley and either Sancho or Rashford with Pogba could be a golden low ownership gamble....or a complete disaster if Bruno smashes it again

[Aldershot Rejects]

I think I'd be tempted to stick with KDB to Bruno (or even go straight to Salah) and then use the two frees next week.

[blahblah]

Gray to Ramsey looks obvious, or Cout if you can afford him.

I'm far from convinced that KdB to Bruno to KdB is worth the 2 transfers - I'm not even that convinced it's worth the 1 from my WC.

[Gambit]

I think I'd be tempted to stick with KDB to Bruno (or even go straight to Salah) and then use the two frees next week.

Yeah, that's the sensible option I think, the other United midfielders could all share minutes and Trossard with two away games is very much a punt.

KDB to Bruno C, and then two FT's for DGW26 is looking like my 1st choice at the moment.

[Gambit]

Gray to Ramsey looks obvious, or Cout if you can afford him.

I'm far from convinced that KdB to Bruno to KdB is worth the 2 transfers - I'm not even that convinced it's worth the 1 from my WC.

Gray to Ramsey is a good move but don't think I need to do it this week.

I'm not convinced KDB plays (or gets 90) with them being away in Portugal on Tuesday then facing Spurs on the weekend, plenty on Bluemoon think he'll be benched although that doesn't count for much really as only Pep knows. I'd back Bruno with 180 minutes to beat KDB this GW.......maybe

And I need a captain, Bruno looks as good a choice as anybody this week, I can't get to Ronaldo in one FT unless I drop Kane - something I did consider but quickly rejected as Kane has the DGW26 and is always nailed to play.

[blahblah]

Kane is one of the reasons I'm WC'ing

I'll let the hangover decide whether to get Bruno for KdB and a transfer to get KdB in

[Gambit]

Kane is one of the reasons I'm WC'ing

I'll let the hangover decide whether to get Bruno for KdB and a transfer to get KdB in

I'm still reasonably happy to hold Kane at the moment, not a great fixture this week as Wolves are solid but then he has a DGW where you know he'll get 180 minutes, a porous Leeds, a porous Everton, I'll reassess him after that run.