"Toney or not to be..."

[Ruth_NZ]

Seems like there's a fair old bandwagon over on FFS about Ivan Toney [Brentford, 6.5m] with many talking as if he's a good thing. So thought I'd take a look at his prospects.

First things first: you can't equate Championship performance with PL potential, just can't. Of the last 7 teams promoted via the playoffs, 5 were immediately relegated again and the other two came mighty close. You have to go all the way back to Palace in 2013 to find one that secured a safe mid-table finish. So, Toney is playing for a club that it is highly likely will be mired in a relegation scrap at best, based on historical precedent.

OK, so how have the key attackers from the last 10 teams promoted via playoffs done? Not well in the main. Not one surpassed their Championship goals record in the PL the following season and most were way down. In total, those 10 players had 192 goals in the promotion year and 61 in the first PL season*. So, a 68% drop-off. Toney had 33 goals last season; if he hits the average he'll score 10 PL goals next season. It's true that none of those 10 players scored as many as Toney but many were not far off; Murray 30, Mitrovic 26, Abraham 25. It stands to reason really; Brentford were able to overwhelm a lot of teams last season but it will be a rarity for them to be able to do the same in the PL. Not every promoted team is a Leeds. In fact very few are.

Were Brentford an unusually capable attacking team last season? No. They scored 79 goals. 21 teams in the previous 10 seasons in the Championship did the same or better. It's a fairly typical number for a promoted team.

I will leave an analysis of Toney's game to others; I haven't watched him enough and don't think the stats from last season mean much for the reasons already given. But it seems to me that his bandwagon has wobbly wheels. Maybe he'll be the rarity that proves the rule, he could be a Charlie Austin or a Teemu Pukki (though even Pukki had a very long dry spell after a fast start). But he could just as easily be an Abel Hernandez or Cameron Jerome. He's no sure bet.

* Includes Abraham's goals for Chelsea after top-scoring when Villa were promoted. All the others stayed at the same club.

[Spreadsheet]

Solid post, though I’m biased by the fact it reaffirms my own view that Toney will do well to replicate even a shade of his previous season’s exploits. Even if he does, which I concede he and Brentford may be capable of, with a few decent options at just the 1-2 million more mark, I’ll not be starting with any promoted team’s attackers and be keeping a watching brief.

[Ruth_NZ]

I'm ambivalent right now and am certainly not saying he's a dead duck, just that he's no sure thing. Personally there's an additional feature that Brentford's initial fixtures really don't attract me much. Seems to me that there are midfielders in the 6m-6.5m range that I'd prefer to Toney (Saka, Raphinha, Soucek, probably Buendia as well) if I can live with a 4.5m bench forward instead of a 4.5m bench midfielder. So there's that aspect as well.

There will probably be a right time for Toney during the season. Question is whether GW1 is it.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

To be going for one of the promoted forwards the fixtures really do need to be excellent, I don't think Brentford's are close to be honest. Can definitely wait and see, I'll probably be on Watkins for 3 weeks and jump off with more information

[Aldershot Rejects]

I'm ambivalent right now and am certainly not saying he's a dead duck, just that he's no sure thing. Personally there's an additional feature that Brentford's initial fixtures really don't attract me much. Seems to me that there are midfielders in the 6m-6.5m range that I'd prefer to Toney (Saka, Raphinha, Soucek, probably Buendia as well) if I can live with a 4.5m bench forward instead of a 4.5m bench midfielder. So there's that aspect as well.

There will probably be a right time for Toney during the season. Question is whether GW1 is it.

This is pretty much where I am. Would really prefer the 4.5m midfielder on the bench, but we're probably talking about 3rd on the bench so maybe it doesn't matter that much. Not sure I want to go into the season with a completely dead spot in my team though. Given that it is for my final attacking spot playing it safe by going with bandwagon is probably the pragmatic play.

[Brightwater]

I am currently on 4-5-1 Toney (4.5 4.5)

[blahblah]

How many would have had Pukki the other season?

(I dumped the bstrd at the last minute, well day or so.)

[hancockjr]

Good OP but really it’s not the season stats that matter it’s the first 10 or so games. If he does well in those he’s worth having.

I also think his fixtures are ok - cry could really struggle this season, as may wolves, and there’s not a very hard one in there either. Certainly not enough to put me off.

Can’t recall Hernandez and Cameron Jerome in championship but were their stats really anywhere near Toney’s?

Interesting point re play off winners though - seems maybe they do significantly worse (less good, less time to plan also) - not thought of that before.

[blahblah]

Historically they used to do ok and I'm not aware of a lot of Transfers In for the other 2.

Brentford lost a few before this season and they did OK, especially Olly Watkins.

[SirMattBugsby]

I am currently on 4-5-1 Toney (4.5 4.5)

Same here. Have Toney by default tbh, since I'm not yet convinced by 7-8 mil forwards.

I actually think start of the season is good to own promoted players. The players and fans are in good mood and give spirited performances before fizzling out (or not?) Have been a fair few examples recently. Good to own early on, then sell at higher value.

[blahblah]

I am currently on 4-5-1 Toney (4.5 4.5)

Same here. Have Toney by default tbh, since I'm not yet convinced by 7-8 mil forwards.

I actually think start of the season is good to own promoted players. The players and fans are in good mood and give spirited performances before fizzling out (or not?) Have been a fair few examples recently. Good to own early on, then sell at higher value.

I agree about the promoted clubs and was pondering going with at least 2 of their CFs

[Ruth_NZ]

I actually think start of the season is good to own promoted players. The players and fans are in good mood and give spirited performances before fizzling out (or not?)

I have been focused on teams promoted via playoffs (because that's what Brentford are) so here's more data regarding the season start.

13/14 Palace lost 9 of their first 10 games, scoring only 6 goals in the process. They were actually one that avoided relegation, finishing 11th after a late-season surge.
14/15 QPR lost 7 of their first 10 games, scoring 7 goals in the process. They were 19th after 10 games and were relegated in 20th but Charlie Austin was a rare striker success with 18 goals that season including 3 in the first 10 games.
15/16 Norwich were a bit better, losing 5 and winning 2 of their first 10 games, scoring 14 goals in the process. I guess there was a hint of an initial boost seeing that the two wins came in the first 5 games. They were 16th after 10 and eventually relegated in 19th.
16/17 Hull lost 7 of their first 10 games, scoring 8 goals in the process, but they did win their first 2, so if that was a fast start it didn't last long at all. Eventually relegated.
17/18 Huddersfield were unquestionably a fast-start team with a 3-3-4 record in the first 10, including winning their first 2. Only scored 7 in those 10 games though. They were another one that avoided relegation (just).
18/19 Fulham lost 6 of their first 10 games, scoring 12 goals in the process, and only won one of the first 9. Clearly not a fast start but having the main striker would have been good in this case; Mitrovic scored 5 goals in the first 6 games. Eventually relegated.
19/20 Villa won 4 of their first 10 games, scoring 16 goals in the process, so this was certainly a fast start. They also avoided relegation but after a mid-season slump they needed (and got) 8 points from their last 4 games to do it.
20/21 Fulham lost 7 of their first 10 games and didn't manage a win till GW7. They scored 11 goals in the 10 games but this was a team that remained in the bottom-4 all season.

OK, so can you see your comment being justified there? I can't really. Two of the 8 teams had solid, fast starts; 3 more you could maybe argue either way and 3 clearly didn't. As a group they lost 61% of their opening 10 fixtures and averaged 1 goal scored per game.

[SirMattBugsby]

It's different with individual assets. I remember owning Neves GW 1, Pukki early on as well as Bamford. All did fine, atleast initially. Team performances are preferable, but secondary imo.

Toney falls in that category. Only problem is, he's a bit highly owned already.

[Ruth_NZ]

That's surely illogical. You are saying that the bounce (if it exists) affects some players but not others (and that your pin can pick them) whereas if what you say is true it applies to the whole team.

It's dubious that your pin is that good either, irrespective of what your anecdotal history may be. For example, the big beneficiaries of Norwich's decent start in 15/16 were Nathan Redmond (3 goals in first 7 games from RW) and Russell Martin (3 goals in first 6 games from CB). You'd have been hard pressed to get your pin in those.

[SirMattBugsby]

Just trying to contribute, take it or leave it. Pukki scored in two losses either side of his hat-trick. McGinn and Lundstram are two more I remember now: one fizzled out while the other didn't.

It is a risk, no doubt. But there's always some viable option, esp in terms of value, from a promoted team. Could be Toney, Sarr, Pukki again, Mbuemo, Watford GKs.. I like to dabble in them early on personally.

[nemo7x]

To add more stats from transfermarkt here, excluding EFL cup matches and counting only matches in the last 4 seasons (to focus on Brentford team under Thomas Frank's coaching), Brentford team has never played against any other clubs currently in Premier League (of course) but they have played against Leeds, Aston Villa, Watford, Norwich and Wolves in the Championship before. So looking at the stats of these matches can give us a hint on whether to choose Brentford's players this season or not. The stats say:

• Aston Villa: 4 matches, Won 2 Draw 2 Lost 0 --> win ratio 50.0%

• Watford: 2 matches, Won 1 Draw 1 Lost 0 --> win ratio 50.0%

• Leeds: 6 matches, Won 2 Draw 2 Lost 2 --> win ratio 33.3%

• Norwich: 6 matches, Won 1 Draw 2 Lost 3 --> win ratio 16.7%

• Wolves: 2 matches, Won 0 Draw 1 Lost 1 --> win ratio 0.0%

And against the other great teams in the Premier League? ... We will see soon enough.

Personally, I feel this team is not matching with the level of a Leeds / Norwich and cannot put much hope on it. Brentford could do well economically (they have a regular club incomes for recent seasons) but they sold many good players to other clubs like Watkin, Maupay, Tarkowski, Dallas... I'm not having any issues on their model of finding and training good players then selling them for profit but I think Brentford will have a high chance of coming down right back to Championship this season. So I'd rather target Brentford team each GW than choose any of their players and personally my verdict is: ..not Toney..

[hancockjr]

Toney is coming up with a stunning record in the Championship - I'm not seeing how people are factoring that into their considerations. Clearly no-one would be picking an average Brentford striker, but that is not the question.

[Sutter Kane]

The problem for me is that I'd like to see Brentford in the Prem before buying in to Toney - he will get at least 10 goals I'm sure, however there's a lot of competition in the striker area from 6mn-8mn bracket, then there's Kane. If Brentford lose 0-3 v Arsenal, will their heads drop?

Most can to downgrade to Toney if required. He has a nice 9 game run from GW10 that might tempt me.

Sometimes there's just 6.5mn left to spend in that final forward slot and I think that's where some people are...fair enough as well.

[Gambit]

It’s a tough one and he’s been in and out of my team like a yo-yo!

On one hand for just 1m more I can have proven premier league strikers like Watkins, Antonio, Nacho etc, but when i need money Toney is an easy go to to free up 1m and he ticks a lot of fantasy boxes; nailed, pens, best player, talisman etc.

I couldn’t honestly say yet what i will do, and he’s one of those where his price could go either way, if he flops in that first game and Brentford get a chasing then he will be shredded by casuals and his price will fall, but if he scores and looks good and one of popular 7.5m strikers flops then managers will pile even more onto Toney and he’ll be 6.7 by GW2.

Ideally I’d like to wait but ultimately it will come down to budget, at the moment I’m on a no Bruno draft so I’m not needing to save a million and Toney is not in my team, but as things change over the next two weeks if i need money then it’s likely Toney will creep back in.

It’s a shame Welbeck is made of balsa wood as he’s proven, better fixtures, and even cheaper!

[Stena Bib]

It’s a tough one and he’s been in and out of my team like a yo-yo!

On one hand for just 1m more I can have proven premier league strikers like Watkins, Antonio, Nacho etc, but when i need money Toney is an easy go to to free up 1m and he ticks a lot of fantasy boxes; nailed, pens, best player, talisman etc.

I couldn’t honestly say yet what i will do, and he’s one of those where his price could go either way, if he flops in that first game and Brentford get a chasing then he will be shredded by casuals and his price will fall, but if he scores and looks good and one of popular 7.5m strikers flops then managers will pile even more onto Toney and he’ll be 6.7 by GW2.

Ideally I’d like to wait but ultimately it will come down to budget, at the moment I’m on a no Bruno draft so I’m not needing to save a million and Toney is not in my team, but as things change over the next two weeks if i need money then it’s likely Toney will creep back in.

It’s a shame Welbeck is made of balsa wood as he’s proven, better fixtures, and even cheaper!

That's an insult to balsa wood

[blahblah]

[blahblah]

Being serious though

Predicting who is going to be good/bad is daft as shown by Norwich among others.

Season long is much easier, but how few players become season holds?

[Gambit]

It’s a tough one and he’s been in and out of my team like a yo-yo!

On one hand for just 1m more I can have proven premier league strikers like Watkins, Antonio, Nacho etc, but when i need money Toney is an easy go to to free up 1m and he ticks a lot of fantasy boxes; nailed, pens, best player, talisman etc.

I couldn’t honestly say yet what i will do, and he’s one of those where his price could go either way, if he flops in that first game and Brentford get a chasing then he will be shredded by casuals and his price will fall, but if he scores and looks good and one of popular 7.5m strikers flops then managers will pile even more onto Toney and he’ll be 6.7 by GW2.

Ideally I’d like to wait but ultimately it will come down to budget, at the moment I’m on a no Bruno draft so I’m not needing to save a million and Toney is not in my team, but as things change over the next two weeks if i need money then it’s likely Toney will creep back in.

It’s a shame Welbeck is made of balsa wood as he’s proven, better fixtures, and even cheaper!

Another point I forgot to mention is that if Toney flops in GW1 and looks like dropping in price there is nowhere else to go to really, it's hard to take price drops at the start as it can really hurt future moves so it would be much easier to start with the 7.5m striker and then move down to Toney if need be than start with Toney and have to move up if he flops - or do nothing and swallow the price falls hoping he comes good.

I suppose if Tammy gets a move and becomes a first choice then he'd be the place you'd go to although I suspect if that happens then there would be no need to start with Toney and people would just have Tammy instead?

[hancockjr]

Being serious though

Predicting who is going to be good/bad is daft as shown by Norwich among others.

Season long is much easier, but how few players become season holds?

You know that's literally the point of Fantasy Football?

[blahblah]

Being serious though

Predicting who is going to be good/bad is daft as shown by Norwich among others.

Season long is much easier, but how few players become season holds?

You know that's literally the point of Fantasy Football?

Yes, but it takes some matches to gain confidence etc as not all the top clubs may start well and the relegation battlers might get good starts....

[hancockjr]

So do you enter in gameweek 3?

[blahblah]

So do you enter in gameweek 3?

Well...... I've thought GW2 a number of times, but that means not logging into FPL in preseason

More matches means more "knowledge" and taking strident positions about a lot of players can be wrong.

[ajcairns]

Noney Toney for me at the start. Fixtures are okay but prefer other options for a little bit more. In the unlikely even he explodes early on in the season i can always pick him up on the wildcard before he rises more than 0.5. If he's worth it, investing 7.0 in him will be fine.


Also the irrational thoughts in my head are that I refuse to pick an ex Scunthorpe United player that progresses on to play in the Prem. Not a good stock.

[Striker]

I refuse to pick an ex Scunthorpe United player that progresses on to play in the Prem.

Yeh, you'd have been out of your mind to have considered picking Keegan when he progressed to the top division.

[ajcairns]

I refuse to pick an ex Scunthorpe United player that progresses on to play in the Prem.

Yeh, you'd have been out of your mind to have considered picking Keegan when he progressed to the top division.

The pedant in me insisted I put "Prem".