CptPugwash Euro2021Blog

[LAMPS27]

I hate doing backward transfers so keen to aim for the full 57 appearences in the group stage leaving 26 transfers for the knockout stage. and 70 potential max appearences.
May use an Italy block in one team for the golden boot, then vary the other 4 or prob 2 Italy plus 2 others.
Will ponder a bit more tomorrow.

Be interesting if you can get to 57, im struggling without (what appears to be) severely affecting my team. ie removing a player ahead of good fixtures.

I have got to 52 appearances so far.

Obviously maximising appearances isn't essential but with little way of going full blocks due to the transfer limit each round i feel its important to at least be there or or there abouts 55+ etc.

[CptPugwash]

....Another quick diversion.

A Look at the Top 6 defenders for a Golden Boot strategy.

1. J Maehle (DEN 3.6 Right Back) Top of my list will be a surprise to most. Only made his full debut in September last year. 6 starts including the last 4, 3 sub appearances 2 goals. Previously scored 2 in 3 games for the U21s. Less than 1% ownership. 3 Home games against FIN, BEL, &RUS.

2. D Alaba (AUS 3.3 Left Back/Left Attacking Midfielder) By far the top scorer on the list. 14 goals from 79 caps. The star player for his country; even as a left back worth consideration, but if he plays on the wing an auto selection.

3. R Rodriguez (SWI 3.8 Left centre Half / Left wing Back) The only penalty taking defender left in the tournament.

4. W Orban (HUN 2.6 Centre Half) It might seem strange to see a Hungarian on this list, and there is little clean sheet potential, but he has a decent knack for goals. He only declared for Hungary in 2018 and has 5 goals from 18 starts and 3 sub appearances. He has scored a respectable 4 goals from 25 starts for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga this year. If Hungary get enough set pieces into the box, chances are Orban get's on the end of them.

5. T Meunier (BEL 4.4 Right wing Back) Not currently at the dizzy heights of 2 or 3 years ago, but 7 goals in 46 games for his country, including famously the hat trick vs Gibraltar demand inclusion. 46 club goals in his 10 year career.

6. J Cancelo (POR 4.5 Right Back) A very respectable 4 goals in 26 games for his country. We all know he could easily have more than he 3 goals he has scored this season for Man City.

[CptPugwash]

Group D

Croatia

No surprises in the squad. I will be very surprised if they don't line up 433, they played 4231 in 2 world cup qualifiers at home to Cyprus & Malta but reverted to 433 for the recent friendlies I suspect in preparation for tougher games.
Livakovic(1), and full backs Vrsaliko(2) on the right and Barisic(3) on the left look certain starters.
Centre Half is not quite so certain. Caleta-Car(5) & Vida(21) have started the last 3, but in the 2 world cup qualifiers before that Lovren(6) played instead of Caleta-Car in one, and Vida in the other.
Modric(10 Cpt) is a certain starter in midfield, and Brozovic(11) will probably start in the middle of the 3. The third is less certain, my guess is that the more defensive Kovacic(8) starts against England, with Vlasic(13) an option.
Up front Petkovic(20) was the top scorer in the qualifying campaign, but appeared to be out of favour until selected for the final friendly against Belgium. Pasalic(15), Kramaric(9) and Budimir(14) are definite contenders for the shirt.
Whoever plays up front is likely to be flanked by Perisic(4) and Rebic(18).
If they do go 4231, Vlasic will probably play in the hole.

Perisic(MID 4.9) would be my preferred option, justifiable a smidgeon more expensive than Modric(MID 4.8) and Vlasic(MID 4.7). The interesting option is Pasalic(MID 4.6) , who may get selected for the No. 9 role. Kramaric(FWD 5.6) has a very respectable 6 goals from 13 games, but I'd hold off selecting any forward until I saw a team sheet. Barisic @ 3.7 is probably the pick of the defenders.

[CptPugwash]

Czech Republic

No big surprises with the squad. A couple of back up defenders listed on Fan Team didn't make the cut. Expected to line up 451.

Established no. 1 Vaclik is expected to start, but it isn't a done deal, Pavlenka(23) is an option.
Right Back Coufal(5) is the 1 certainty in the back 4. Boril(18) has started the last4 at left back, but faces competition from Mateju(17)
Celustka(3) has started the last 4 in the middle, and looks the best bet for a starting spot. Kalas(6) is tipped to start, but hasn't started any of the last 4. Brabec(4) would appear to be more likely to me.
The front 6 looks all well established. Soucek(15) as the holding midfielder flanked by Darida(8 Cpt) & Kral(21). Masopust(12) & Jankto(14) wide & further forward. Schick(9) will start in the middle.
Holes(19) is definitely an option if the Czechs want an extra holding midfielder.

The West Ham duo look the best fantasy picks in their positions Coufal(DEF 3.2) & Soucek(MID 3.8). If you think the Czechs can score goals in this group then Schick(FWD 4.5) looks a very fair price with almost a goal every other game. If Holes(DEF 3.0) is selected, he could be a decent option as he is likely to play in midfield rather than defence.

[CptPugwash]

England

Everyone will have their own take on a likely England line up, so I'm just going to take this opportunity to air some personal opinions.

Naming 4 Right backs in the original squad, while finding room for only 3 genuine centre-forwards in a 26 man squad seems crazy to me. The only possible justification is that one of them Walker(2) is going to start on the right of a back 3. However as England haven't gone 3 at the back for a long time that does appear unlikely.
My guess is they stick to the 433. Pickford(1): Walker(2) is surely favourite for right back, Stones(5) is a certainty, Mings(15) probably edges the only other centre half in the squad Coady(16), assuming Maguire(6) isn't fit for game 1. Shaw(3) probably edges Chilwell(21) assuming a back 4, I think that would likely be reversed with a back 3.
In midfield i'd like to see 1 holding midfielder flanked by 2 genuine no. 8s in Mount(19) & Foden(20). That's unlikely though with both Rice(4) and Phillips(14) or Henderson(8) starting, and Mount as the only attacking midfielder.
Up front Kane(9 Cpt) will obviously start in the middle. Surely to god, Foden will play somewhere, and I can't believe this but Sterling(10) ahead of Grealish(7), Sancho(17) and even Rashford(11).

From a fantasy perspective Kane(FWD 6.5) is clearly a safe starting pick. Foden(MID 5.3) should be a good pick, but I have a nagging worry that he doesn't start. Sterling (MID 5.4); I find it very strange that the telegraph list him as a midfielder, as they tend to be quite conservative about listing front 3 players as midfielders. I'd also expect him to be priced quite a bit higher if he was certain to start.

[CptPugwash]

Scotland

No real surprises in the squad, though Considine was running at over 7% selection, hasn't made the cut.
Scotland will go with 3 at the back, the only question about formation is whether they go 3412 or 3421.

Marshall(1) is nailed. Tierney(6) will play on the left of the back 3, with Hanley(5) in the middle. The only doubt is whether McTominay(4) plays on the right of the back 3 or as a holding midfielder. If he plays in midfield then Hendry(24) will play as the right centre half.
Wing Backs are nailed O'Donnell(2) on the right and Robertson(3) on the left.
McGregor(8) will play as a holding midfielder and McGinn(7) will either join him there or as a more advanced midfielder.
Up front Adams(10) appears to have booked his place. Depending on formation the final one or two attacking spots are between Dykes(10), Christie(11) and Fraser(20).
It's quite feasible that Scotland can line up with 1 to 11 on the pitch.

McGinn(MID 3.2) is the standout pick. That's a very low price for a guaranteed starter going at a goal every 3 games. Robertson(DEF 2.9) provides optimism for clean sheet points and attacking returns. McTominay(DEF 2.7) is a midfielder on every other platform, so there might be value there. Adams(FWD 4) will be optimistic of adding to his 2 goals in 3 starts in front of a home crowd.

Group D Summary

England should have enough to win what looks like a low scoring group. Though perversely like the world cup, the round of 16 game looks likely to be easier for the runners up. I see lots of clean sheet potential, particularly in the games involving Scotland, who will be optimistic of eking out a win in 1 of their home games, which I would back them to do.

[CptPugwash]

...Another short diversion.

A quick look at the Sun Dream Team.
I never do well at Sun games, usually giving up after the first set of fixtures, but it's free and we can all hope for that top prize.
I don't intend to spend much time on it, unless by a miracle it starts well.
Key differences.
Limited Transfers only 20 total, and max of 3 per day.
No Team reset. IMO This is the biggie as you probably need to have your team well set for the start of the KO's.
Star Rating stuff. This is the big advantage to those players who follow the game, and understand how likely players are to get those star ratings and MOTM awards.
The Budget.. well there is effectively almost no budget limit. You really have to cherry pick to try and bust it.

Anyways...this is my 1st team: Blistering Barnacles that took less than 2 minutes to pick.

Donnarumma ITA 4
-----------------------
Bonnucci ITA 4
Chiellini ITA 3.5
Spinazzola ITA 2.5
M De Ligt NED 3.5
----------------------
Wijnaldum NED 3.5
E Hazard BEL 4
Eriksen DEN 3.5
-----------------------
Depay NED 4.5
Lukaku BEL 6
Ronaldo POR 7

My plan is to try and keep as many players from groups A, B, &C. As the top 2 from these groups all play in the first 4 L16 matches.

[CptPugwash]

..Onto Group E

Poland

No surprises with the squad. How Poland line up is up in the air. Half the time 3 at the back, half the time 4. With a fit Milik, expect 2 up top, but without him they may play just the 1.
Szczeny(1) is expected to get the nod over Fabianski(22)
Beresynski(18) will play somewhere on the right as Right Back, Right Wing Back, possibly as a Right centre half.
With 3 centre halves expect them to line up Helik(14) on the right, Glik(15) in the middle and Bednarek(5) on the left. With a fairly new coach, and no clues in the friendlies, it's hard to know who is the most vulnerable, but I suspect it's Glik.
Rybus(13) will play as the left back or left wing back.
Krychowiak(10) will play as a holding midfielder. Moder(16) is likely to join him, but Klich(23) is an option.
If Klich isn't handed a holding role, he may be pushed further forward joining Zielinski(20). Linetty(8) is the other option.
Lewandowski(9 Cpt) will lead the line.

Lewandowski(FWD 6.1) is a premium for a reason. Cheaper than Werner, same price as Griezmann, .1 more than Rashford. Looks a bargain to me. It would be a surprise if any of the midfielders produced decent attacking returns. Helik(DEF 2.7), with only 3 caps to his name, is priced much cheaper than the rest of the defenders, and managed 5 goals for Barnsley this year.

[CptPugwash]

Spain

Enrique has decided to leave behind the top scorer from the qualifiers, the centre-half without whom they struggle to keep a clean sheet, and the Real Madrid captain. Who are these 3 players? Of course it's just 1 Sergio Ramos. Citing a lack of match fitness, whilst being the only team not to take it's full allocation, strikes me as very odd indeed. Bryan Gil will have been disappointed to miss the cut.

Much of the team selection is up for grabs, and the latest covid outbreak and resultant latest friendly team hasn't helped.
Expect the team to line up 433.
Simon(23) has started the last 7, so it would be a shock if De Gea(1) is selected.
Azpilicueta(2) is expected to start at right back, but switching Gaya(14) the Valencia left back there remains a possibility.
Alba(18) should start at left back. P Torres(4) looks nailed for a centre back spot. Laporte(3) made his long awaited debut against Portugal, and has just that 1 cap, but the alternatives look very thin. D Lloriente(6) has just tested positive for covid, and Garcia(12) has hardly kicked a ball this season. Switching Azpilicueta to centre half is the other possibility.
Even without Busquets(5 Cpt) positive covid test, Rodri(16) would have been expected to start in the holding role. The other midfield spots looks like 2 from 3. Thiago(10), Koke(8), & Pedri(24), with Ruiz(19) also in the mix.
Morata(7) will start up front, F Torres(20) will probably edge out Moreno(9) on the right and similarly Oyarzabal(22) over Olmo(15) on the left.

Luckily Spain are up late in the first round, so using transfers is probably the best way to address the selection doubts.
Simon(GK 3) is the cheaper keeper, P Torres(DEF 3.7) looks a touch under priced. Morata(FWD 5.6) with a goal every other game is by far the safest attacking pick. The rest are a wait and see for me. Moreno & Torres (FWD 5.2 & 5.4) also score a goal every other game and might be worth a punt if selected. Olmo(MID 4.7) would be the one that interests me if he got an attacking berth.

[CptPugwash]

Sweden

The only minor surprise was the inclusion of the aging Granqvist(4 Cpt) in the squad. A much bigger surprise would be if then don't line up with the traditional 442.
Olsen(1) will start in goal. Nordfeldt(23) started the last 2 World Cup qualifiers, but Olsen was injured at the time.
Lustig(2) at right back & Lindelof(3) at centre half are nailed. Danielson(24) probably edges Helander(14) for the second centre half spot. Left back is a very tough call; Bengtsson(5) has played the last 3 friendlies, but Augustinsson(6) appeared to be the more regular starter prior to a couple of injuries this year.
Any 2 from Larsson(7), Ekdal(8), & Olsson(20) will be expected to start in the middle with the width provided by Forsberg(10) & Claesson(17). Larsson is also an option out wide.
With Kulusevski(21) side-lined from the first game due to Covid, Berg(9) & Isak(11) should start up front.

With a trip to Spain up first there is little to appeal at the back. Claesson(MID 3.3) may be the pick, a midfield classification, a budget price, and a respectable strike rate for club and country.

[RCN]

Yeah good read this

[CptPugwash]

Slovakia

No real surprises with the squad. Backup defender Hancko is the unluckiest to miss the cut. Expect them to line up with some variation of a 451.
Dubravka(1) is the undoubted keeper.
Pekarik(2), and the out of retirement Hubocan(15) will start as fullbacks (right & left respectively) Vavro(3)
AC Milan's Skriniar(14) will start in the middle of the back 4, his partner Valjent(4) or Satka(5)
Kucka(19) will play as a holding midfielder. Hamsik(17) will be expected to play alongside Kucka in a 4231 or as part of a midfield 3, but hasn't played for the national team in the last 5.
On one side width will be provided by Mak(20). Duda(8) could play wide on the other side as part of a 433 or as a CAM in a 4231.
The final midfield slot will probably go to Lobotka(22), but both Gregus(6) and Benes(11) are options.
Slovakia appear very weak up front. Neither of the more regular options Bozenik(9), nor Duris(21) have started many club games this year. Schranz(26) the 3rd option is the only regular starter at club level.

Slovakia have Poland first, so if you expect Poland to misfire as they often do at major championships then the Slovak defence is a very cheap option. Dubravka(GK 1.7) is cheap enough. Skriniar(DEF 2.7) is the standout defender, with his expected team mates priced between 2.5 & 2.6. Mak(MID 3.4) appears to be the best attacking option @ 0.3 cheaper than Hamsik, who may not play, and if he does will play further back than Mak. Duda(MID 3.1) is a decent budget option having scored 7 times from 32 starts in the Bundesliga with Koln. i wouldn't go near any of the strikers, unless likely 3rd choice Schranz(FWD 4.2) is picked, and you fancy a gamble.

Group E Summary
Spain are clear favourites, with 3 home games, and a record better than nearly anyone else. However at the back they do concede, and have a very new international pairing. Doubts about team selection all over the pitch has me slightly worried. A firing Poland would definitely push them, and Sweden will be optimistic of over turning defeats in the qualification. I expect all 3 to go through, with Slovakia being the whipping boys.

[CptPugwash]

Floundering Flatfish

Another diversion to look at my starting selections for the Golden Boot entry.

In Goal I'm going Marshall (SCO 1.8). No point in spending too much between the sticks and I do think there's more than a reasonable chance of a Scottish clean sheet.
Maehle (DEN 3.6), Alaba (AUT 3.3), Rodriguez (SWI 3.8).
I'm going with the top 3 on my list who happen to be the 3 mid-range defenders.
Yaziki (TUR 4.5), James (WAL3.3), Eriksen (DEN 5), Wijnaldum(NED 4.6)
1 or possibly 2 of the first 3 midfielders will be switched to Belgium, otherwise I expect the quartet to remain unchanged for at least the first set of fixtures.
Yilmaz (TUR 5.7), Immobile (ITA 5.8), Braithwaite (DEN 5.6)
The plan is to keep the first 2 and use my allocation of transfers to shuffle Braithwaite through Round 1.

In the Bank 3M. Should be enough to keep me going.

[sarllm]

Thanks so much for this Capt!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[robot]

Floundering Flatfish

Another diversion to look at my starting selections for the Golden Boot entry.

In Goal I'm going Marshall (SCO 1.8). No point in spending too much between the sticks and I do think there's more than a reasonable chance of a Scottish clean sheet.
Maehle (DEN 3.6), Alaba (AUT 3.3), Rodriguez (SWI 3.8).
I'm going with the top 3 on my list who happen to be the 3 mid-range defenders.
Yaziki (TUR 4.5), James (WAL3.3), Eriksen (DEN 5), Wijnaldum(NED 4.6)
1 or possibly 2 of the first 3 midfielders will be switched to Belgium, otherwise I expect the quartet to remain unchanged for at least the first set of fixtures.
Yilmaz (TUR 5.7), Immobile (ITA 5.8), Braithwaite (DEN 5.6)
The plan is to keep the first 2 and use my allocation of transfers to shuffle Braithwaite through Round 1.

In the Bank 3M. Should be enough to keep me going.

Seems you have to have the assistant manager thing to be able to win the golden boot! Have people signed up for it?

[Moon Knight]

Fantastic thread Cpt P.

Sitting down to look at the player list this afternoon and this will be a big help.

Thank you

[LAMPS27]

How’s it going so far Capt?

Not great for me so far;

Italy full block cs - great
Denmark and Netherlands mini block (6 apps) - 0 cs pretty bad!

That’s it now until R2 for me.

[CptPugwash]

Family commitments have seen me out of action for 4 days.

...A quick look ahead to Group F before a review of what's happened so far.

France
No big surprises in the squad, though maybe Mendy might have been expected to be a back up defender.
The team virtually picks itself. Lloris(1) behind a back 4 of Pavard(2), Kimpembe(3), Varane(4), & Hernandez(21).
Kante(13) at the base of a 4; flanked by Pogba(6) & Rabiot(14); with Griezzman(7) at the top. Tolisso(12) & Coman(20) are possible alternatives for Kante and Rabiot.
Mbappe(10) and Benzema(19) up front.

Mbappe(FWD 6.5) is the highest priced player for a reason, I can't see the value in Griezzman(FWD 6.1) unless he's ahead of Mbappe in the penalty pecking order. Benzema(FWD 5.7) could be the value pick, he slotted straight back in during the recent friendly.

Germany
No surprises in the squad. Germany have switched to 3 at the back for the last 3 games, and there are definitely spaces up for grabs in the starting XI.
Neuer(1 Cpt) in goal, Rudiger(2) at the back, Kimmich(6) as a holding midfielder or wing back, Sane(19) as either a wing-back or wide forward, & Gnabry(10) as either a wide forward or the No. 9 look the only certain starters.
Klostermann(16) would have expected to start at right back, but with a back 3, Germany could play either Kimmich or Sane in the right wing back role. Sule(15) is favourite for a centre half spot, but Ginter(4) and Hummels(5) are options. Can(23) is a further option for left centre half, if there are 3 at the back. Gosens(20) looks the probable starter at left back/left wing back.
In the middle 2 from Kroos(8), Goretzka(18), & Gungdogan(21) look likely to start. However if Kimmich plays in the middle in a 343, that only leaves room for 1.
Up front Muller(25) has been having recent game time, and Werner(11) will have high hopes of starting either wide right or as the No 9.

Gnabry(MID 5.2) looks the standout pick, with an impressive goal tally for his country, and likely to start up front. Everyone else looks a bit of a rotation risk for an attacking role. If Gosens(DEF 4.1) nails down the wing back role, he may be the pick of the defence.

[CptPugwash]

Hungary

Hungary looks like the only team with little pre-tournament hope/expectation of progressing from the group stage.
To spring a surprise they will likely need goals from Szalai(9 Cpt) (FWD 4) and hope that Orban(6) (DEF 2.6) can get on the end of set pieces. Gulacsi(1) (GK 1.7) will need to be at his best to keep the goals against column down.

Portugal

Ronaldo(7 Cpt) (FWD 6.5) will lead the line and looks the best bet for goals in the opening round to me. The interest will be around the other attacking options line up Jota (21) (FWD 5.8), B Silva (10) (MID 5.3), & Fernandes (11) (MID 5.5). Jota appeals the most to me, but the forward tag is off putting in the telegraph game.

Summary
the big 3 will all expect to get the win needed against Hungary to all but qualify, with the games between them determining finishing positions.

[CptPugwash]

Now life has settled back down to normal, I hope to catch on my diary for the first set of fixtures. But first I need to address the issue of Italian blocks/semi blocks.
The centre half pairing was formed in the last ice age, and I would have found it highly unlikely that both would have been expected to play all 3 group games. Chiellini looks highly unlikely to be fit for the final group game, and I personally don't think Mancini will want to risk Bonnucci in those circumstances.
I've believed from the start that the most critical position in the Italian team is left back, with the high energy required I will be shocked if Spinazzola isn't rested and Emerson doesn't get a run out against Wales.
All my teams are currently sat on an Italian/Dutch 3/3 (with a lot of catching up to do). The original plan was always to keep 2 or 3 of those Italians for the final game in most teams; now at most I'll be just keeping Donnarumma.
The short term plan is now to move the Italians on to Ukraine (North Macedonia next). Then I'll have a decision on whether to keep the Ukrainians for the final game (Austria) or the Dutch (with a possible rotation risk (North Macedonia). Whatever, it will be one or the other as that looks to me the best way to set up for Belgium's final group game against Finland.

[CptPugwash]

Diary Day 1.

Day 1 was a bit of a mixed bag. A change in plans met I had to dash out at 7.05
I checked one team to make sure I had the right Italian right back, which it had, and like an imbecile assumed that the others had the same, which they hadn't. Great start missed out on a clean sheet and an assist in 2 of the 3 Italian block teams.
I also intended to have Berardi in most teams if he got the nod above Chiesa, in my haste forgot to make that change too, which left my midfields as Wijnaldum, Eriksen and Hazard/Gnabry.

At least my fan team entry with the maximum 3 Italians of Bonnucci, Chiellini & Spinazzola, and my dream teams with the same 3 plus Donnarumma got off to a decent start. Unlike the UEFA team where I downgraded Spinazzola to find an extra .5 to upgrade my midfield.

[CptPugwash]

Diary Day 2.

If Day 1 was a mixed bag, day 2 was a mixed blessing. I fully intended to make defensive changes for the Denmark Finland game, but an expected mid-afternoon break in wedding procedures never materialised. The Eriksen incident left all my teams with the minimum return and an enforced transfer, which pales into comparison with the effect on the rest of the players and Eriksen himself.
I also never got the opportunity to add to my Belgium midfield contingent, which was at least a temporary bonus.
Apart from Eriksen, a sprinkling of Maehles, and the single Braithwaite were the only let downs from day 2.

[CptPugwash]

Diary Day 3.

After failing to switch any Italian full blocks to Danish semi blocks day 2, I decided to move all 3 teams from Italian full blocks, to Italian/Austrian blocks and onto Italian/Dutch blocks. A disappointing return to say the least, as I've clearly fallen a long way behind teams that started Italian at the back and switched to Belgium and/or England.
I entered my final team at this stage Meddling Molluscs with 7 Austrians, and switched out all 7 for Dutchmen. So that teams looking like a public toilet.

Wijnaldum's return was the only decent result of the day as he's the only player in every singe fantasy team I made.

[CptPugwash]

Diary Day 4.

I compounded by unlucky/poor defensive block decision making by failing to move any teams onto a Spanish semi block as I originally had intended to. I finally moved most of my Eriksens on to Danny Olmos once I saw the Spanish line up. Although he got no returns I though he looked by far the best of the Spanish front 3. Fingers crossed he starts game 2.

From a telegraph point of view I had no interest in either of the preceding 2 games of the day, but some of my other teams were disappointed to see the Poles failing to provide the best centre forward of the last 10 years with any service whatsoever, against the expected whipping boys of the group.

[CptPugwash]

Diary Day 5.

The last 10 minutes for Portugal were a relief as 4 out of 5 teams went well enough, as 4 out of 5 teams had Ronaldo.

All the Ronaldos were always likely to turn into Mbappes before France vs Hungary. The decision was whether to do it before France vs Germany or after Portugal vs Germany. For once I possibly got something right by holding off.
My remaining Eriksens turned into Gnabrys.

The Ronaldo double kept my Fan Team alive. I had gone a rather unusual 523 formation with a back 6 of 3 Italians & 3 Spaniards, a midfield Dutch duo of Wijnaldum & Depay (midfield ) and a front 3 of Lukaku, Lewandowski and Ronaldo(Cpt). The plan was always to use the 1 free transfer to ditch either Lewandowski or Ronaldo for some French option round 2. Like a numpty I didn't leave enough money to go Mbappe, so that teams hopes are riding on the disappointing Lewandowski Benzema(Cpt).

[LAMPS27]

.
All my teams are currently sat on an Italian/Dutch 3/3 (with a lot of catching up to do). The original plan was always to keep 2 or 3 of those Italians for the final game in most teams; now at most I'll be just keeping Donnarumma.

The short term plan is now to move the Italians on to Ukraine (North Macedonia next). Then I'll have a decision on whether to keep the Ukrainians for the final game (Austria) or the Dutch (with a possible rotation risk (North Macedonia).

Whatever, it will be one or the other as that looks to me the best way to set up for Belgium's final group game against Finland.

At a similar crossroad, keep the Dutch or the Italians (includes Chielini) for the last group game.

No chance Chielini plays Sunday, so already that’s one blank, Netherlands have the easier fixture but I worry DeBoer changes the 3/4 of the back 5.

He’s made odd changes taking off PvA and Blind back to back games c60 mins - so anything is possible with him

The negative with Netherlands is they’re fixture isnt as significant as Italy’s who need a point to finish top and are facing 2nd in the group, Wales.

[CptPugwash]

...Nearly caught up, then time to look ahead.

Diary Day 6

The only game that had any telegraph fantasy interest for me was the Italian - Swiss game with 3 Italian semi-blocks. With Bonnucci in all 3 it was a huge disappointment to see his goal chalked off, and then watch him trot off 5 minutes later. At least I collected 2 more clean sheets.

I have a couple of Turkish attacking options in other teams, they have been the biggest underachievers against my expectation level so far (together with the Danes, but there's a pretty good reason for that). However all is not lost for them. The swiss need to win to almost certainly qualify, and the Turks need a win for a squeak, a draw sees both out barring an almost inconceivable set of circumstances. A virtual home fixture for the Turks, coupled with terrible schedule for the Swiss should give the Turks a massive advantage.

[CptPugwash]

Diary Day 7

As I've learned to my cost all the planning in the world goes out of the window if you are not around to enact the changes / forget to do them in time. First fixture of the day Ukraine vs North Macedonia, five to three and I realise I haven't made any of my planned changes. Luckily for me I only had time to switch my Italian semi block to Ukrainians in 1 team, unfortunately I changed my best team.

The biggest selection mistake I have made so far was swerving Yarmolenko & Yaremchuk. While the former was a selection doubt game 1, the latter certainly wasn't. Ukraine were clearly a better team than either Austria or North Macedonia, and unlike many more obvious choices were going to have everything to play for in their final 2 games.

Game 2
My 3 main teams are all set up 532 with Depay & Ronaldo. As neither as played yet and I daren't risk missing a Lukaku hat trick I temporarily switch to 433. I consider Belgium semi blocks, but decide against it as I'm no doubt a long way behind teams already set up that way, so fingers crossed for a Danish goal.

Game 3.
Netherlands v Austria. Probably the biggest game of the entire telegraph fantasy tournament for me. 4 teams, including the late entry with at least 6 Dutchmen in the team. Between 4 & 6 clean sheets for all, Dumfries monster & Depay's goal for all, are a very respectable return.

[CptPugwash]

Somehow despite all my cock ups I have 1 team in a respectable position.

Dithering Dogfish 161 pts , 41 transfers left, 6 left this round, 451st

Donnarumma (ITA)
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PVA, De Vrij, De Ligt, Dumfries, Blind (All NED)
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Wijnaldum (NED) Gnabry(GER) Olmo(SPA)
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Depay (NED) Lukaku(BEL)

I don't know how this team is my best team as it had Emerson instead of Spinazzola, it's my only team without Ronaldo, and Wijnaldum aside none of my other 3 midfielders (Eriksen was in the starting XI), have yet to contribute.

The Netherlands have obviously clinched top spot already, so wholesale changes will be expected. Let's hope Dumfries gets a run up front for his charge on the golden boot . Clinching top spot after 2 games is pretty rare as it requires the combination of winning both games, and your final group opponents winning neither of theirs. Weirdly I believe the only other team where that is now possible is Slovakia who need to beat Sweden, and Spain not to beat Poland.

I imagine the bulk of if not all my 6 remaining transfers will have to be used to remove Dutchmen. I really didn't want to do that as it leaves me extremely thin for options in Group A, B & C in the final set of group fixtures.

An England block looks the most obvious but this is a big but, an England win and Croatia failing to beat the Czechs has England guaranteed a top 2 spot, and unlike most groups there appears little difference between the routes for 1st & 2nd in the group. That would lead me to expect wholesale changes for the final game under those circumstances.

Spain on the other hand, with only 1pt have a very big incentive to win their final 2 games to avoid a likely last 16 round clash with France for the runners up of their group. Despite the fact that England appear a much better bet for a clean sheet, I think I'll plump for Spain and hope by some miracle for a Scottish goal.

I can't imagine going into the France - Hungary game without any Frogs, that really would be 2 hours hiding behind the sofa. Some sort of cover is a must.

If anyone has a hot line to De Boer can they please let me know his current thoughts. Keeping at least a couple of Dutchmen would make life much simpler.

[CptPugwash]

@ Lamps
who is the better bet to keep in Italy & Netherlands really is anyone's guess .
I don't have to face that choice as Donnarumma aside in a couple of teams I've already dumped Italian defenders.

Looking at the Dutch.
Dumfries might want to add to his goal tally, but he and De Vrij have played the most minutes.
Blind & PVA shouldn't need a rest, as have you pointed out been hooked twice after an hour, but that's not to say De Boer won't experiment. Wijndal particularly will consider himself unlucky not to start yet.
De Ligt, if he came through the last game unscathed & Timber who missed out in the last game, would be my best guesses for the likeliest to start again of those who have already started if you have either.
I would be surprised if Krul doesn't get a run out next up, considering it looked like a toss up in the first place who started.

Looking at the Italians.
Chiellini looks a certainty to miss at least the next game.
I will personally be astonished if Spinazzola isn't rested for Emerson.
Which IMO makes Bonucci the likeliest of the 3 to start again.
Acerbi & Di Lorenzo should both start if you happen to have either.

Really it comes down to the philosophy of the coaches, consistency of selection vs resting players. Mancini does have the small incentive of equalling Italy's longest ever unbeaten run.