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The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

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SirMattBugsby
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The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 10 Nov 2019, 11:36

We need a separate place for this player, especially this year. Listened to an interview where Kasparov described Carlsen as a "unique combination of Fischer and Karpov", combining the dynamic game of the former with the efficiency of the latter.

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/1908330/history

In FPL, the efficiency and dynamism, separately, have been represented well enough by several managers here. Combining them is the tricky part: whether you go down the route of patience/being passive or being dynamic/knee-jerky. Stemania did it brilliantly last season (and this season, right uptill Leicester :x ).

Whatever it is, Carlsen is killing it this season so far. Will gaze at his GWs and comment on it in the next post.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 10 Nov 2019, 11:59

Gameweeks 1-4

GW 1: Pretty template 4-4-2. Had Lundstram and Haller in from the start.
GW 2: Got Lundstram's haul thanks to Stones' absence. Captained KdB at home against Spurs, something I'd thought of earlier and then did myself against (WAT). Banked transfer.
GW 3: Made the 'sideways' move Stones->Otamendi. Got rewarded for starting with Haller with a 13-point haul.

GW 4: 2 FTs.. Moura->Anderson, King->Abraham. A lot of managers did that here, including Stemania as I recall in his conversation with Maverick. The important thing for me here is, he didn't have to choose between Haller and Abraham since he already had the former. No Pukki still: classic case of knowing he'd be a transfer out down the line? Come to think of it, I myself could've gotten Tammy then if I hadn't made Pukki 'a priority'. All a bit hindsighty, but an example of efficiency from Carlsen nevertheless.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Turd Ferguson » 10 Nov 2019, 21:50

He clearly has a brilliant analytical mind. Interesting that he’s kept faith in Haller.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Pirlo's Beard » 10 Nov 2019, 22:30

Turd Ferguson wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:50
He clearly has a brilliant analytical mind. Interesting that he’s kept faith in Haller.
Your second sentence appears to contradict your first. :wink:

But yes, Carlsen is freakishly good. I would say he's annoyingly good actually. Possibly the greatest chess player the world has ever seen, with a net worth of roughly $8 million and an IQ of 190. And now he's a top FPL player as well?

Surely that can't be fair? :?

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Turd Ferguson » 11 Nov 2019, 00:33

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 22:30
Turd Ferguson wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:50
He clearly has a brilliant analytical mind. Interesting that he’s kept faith in Haller.
Your second sentence appears to contradict your first. :wink:

But yes, Carlsen is freakishly good. I would say he's annoyingly good actually. Possibly the greatest chess player the world has ever seen, with a net worth of roughly $8 million and an IQ of 190. And now he's a top FPL player as well?

Surely that can't be fair? :?
Ha, ya, the Haller thing is odd. That’s why I’m wondering if he’s noticed something the rest of us haven’t.

It would be nice if he were average at FPL like the rest of us mere mortals...maybe the Haller stubbornness is as mortal as it gets for him?

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 12 Nov 2019, 19:13

SirMattBugsby wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 11:59
Gameweeks 1-4

GW 1: Pretty template 4-4-2. Had Lundstram and Haller in from the start.
GW 2: Got Lundstram's haul thanks to Stones' absence. Captained KdB at home against Spurs, something I'd thought of earlier and then did myself against (WAT). Banked transfer.
GW 3: Made the 'sideways' move Stones->Otamendi. Got rewarded for starting with Haller with a 13-point haul.

GW 4: 2 FTs.. Moura->Anderson, King->Abraham. A lot of managers did that here, including Stemania as I recall in his conversation with Maverick. The important thing for me here is, he didn't have to choose between Haller and Abraham since he already had the former. No Pukki still: classic case of knowing he'd be a transfer out down the line? Come to think of it, I myself could've gotten Tammy then if I hadn't made Pukki 'a priority'. All a bit hindsighty, but an example of efficiency from Carlsen nevertheless.
Gameweeks 5-8

GW 5: Carlsen resumed with his GW 5 team, not making any transfers. He does like banking a transfer: hasn't taken a single hit this season and had initially named his team "Hits for Kids" (found it ambiguous at the time but know now that he doesn't love them :lol: ). He got a subpar score of 51, with Salah(c) and Abraham pulling weight.

GW 6: Made 1 FT, Adam Smith(sou)->Tomori(LIV). I'm assuming he benched his new signing, who came on because of Sterling's absence. Carlsen was one of the lucky ones who vice-captained KdB for his WAT haul. His Stones->Otamendi move in GW 3 was rewarded with a 15-pointer. Lundstram's 12 points completed a total of 86 and a rise in rank from 3.8k to 389.

GW 7: 2 transfers: Digne(MCI)->Robertson(shu) and Salah(shu)->Son(SOU). I find these transfers interesting. Liverpool had a supposedly tough run of fixtures coming up without Allison and weren't keeping CSs. A lot of managers reduced their Pool defensive coverage at the time. Did Carlsen see it differently, effectively selling a Pool attacker for defender? The Son move was possibly a combination of his GW 5 haul and targeting Southampton, so more understandable.

61 points, with returns from his West Ham duo of Haller and Anderson, with Sterling(eve)(c) and new signing Tomori(BHA) also returning.

GW 8: Got 43 points in a GW where the average was 36 (and the top 10K avg even less iirc). Got goals from Abraham(sou) and Haller(WHU) but the one standing out for me was choosing McGovern over Heaton for Norwich vs Aston Villa. what?? The only explanation for me is Norwich's home form at the time.. McGovern ended up saving a pen and scoring 9 points despite conceding 5.

Saved his transfer to make what I consider his 2 best moves of the season so far, for GW 9. More on that later..

Conclusions
  • I'm thinking Carlsen had a pre-determined plan to sell Salah after GW 5, till which time he was a captaincy option. He waited till the (che) fixture in GW 6 and then sold him for another potential captaincy option in Son, getting Robertson in the process as well (possibly as Pool cover?).

    He captained Salah or Sterling from GW 1-6, only changing it once in GW 2 (KdB against TOT). Sterling was his default captain from GW 6-8, although the (vc) changed from KdB to Son to even TAA in GW 8 against (LEI).

    Was early in getting in Chelsea assets, even if it meant buying Tomori as D5.

    We're talking about a chess GM here, so important to see his GW 1 squad, try to analyze how long-term he was thinking and what adjustments he made along the way. Will post the images of GW 1 and GW 8 teams (KdB among subs in latter). Imho, he made a team that would do well for as long as 8-10 GWs, with one short-term and one medium-term transfer planned.
Feel free to share your views!

PS: Love the fact that he's a Wolves fan!
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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by math! » 12 Nov 2019, 19:24

Just looked at his season and we have the same points total over the last 5 GWs. I'm 4 points lower if you go back 6 weeks but I also took a -4 last week. This guy is 32 overall!

GW 4 and 6 are where I really lost out. That includes a -16 hit I did.

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 12 Nov 2019, 19:26

Turd Ferguson wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 00:33
Pirlo's Beard wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 22:30
Turd Ferguson wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:50
He clearly has a brilliant analytical mind. Interesting that he’s kept faith in Haller.
Your second sentence appears to contradict your first. :wink:

But yes, Carlsen is freakishly good. I would say he's annoyingly good actually. Possibly the greatest chess player the world has ever seen, with a net worth of roughly $8 million and an IQ of 190. And now he's a top FPL player as well?

Surely that can't be fair? :?
Ha, ya, the Haller thing is odd. That’s why I’m wondering if he’s noticed something the rest of us haven’t.

It would be nice if he were average at FPL like the rest of us mere mortals...maybe the Haller stubbornness is as mortal as it gets for him?
He did get Vardy in at GW 9, and could've gotten rid of Haller at that point. He instead chose to sell Greenwood.. maybe it's a structural thing? He wants 3 forwards and is actually well-placed now to get Jimenez, Rashford or even Aubameyang in. I think Haller out will be his next move (as, I daresay, planned).

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 12 Nov 2019, 19:32

math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 19:24
Just looked at his season and we have the same points total over the last 5 GWs. I'm 4 points lower if you go back 6 weeks but I also took a -4 last week. This guy is 32 overall!

GW 4 and 6 are where I really lost out. That includes a -16 hit I did.

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.
The difference is in him recognizing the potential of Lundstram early and buying Abraham instead of Pukki (mentioned in the GW 1-4 notes). And, of course, the -16: Magnus would not approve mate :?

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Stu255 » 12 Nov 2019, 19:47

The world class skills that Carlson can transfer from his day job are planning, planning, planning. This also fits his “hits are for kids” mantra.

I think it’s wrong to view his transfers in isolation.

It’s not ridiculous to assume he has memorised the entire 2019/20 fixture schedule for all 20 teams and knows who he wants for various future GW’s and the transfer combos needed to get there. That is not a big memory task compared to memorising opening lines of chess that a given opponent might play in an upcoming match.

This kind of thing would not be heavy cognitive lifting for a world class chess player and there are also plenty of transferable skills from chess in terms of assessing long tactical transfer chain sequences vs various empirical scenarios.

It’s probably not any special football analysis that gives Carlson his edge, it’s his tactical foresight that allows him to avoid any crap transfer moves.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 12 Nov 2019, 20:15

True.. although I must mention, he plays football in his free time.

It's certainly not beyond him to plan from start to finish for every team- the guy, after all, plays blind chess against ten opponents simultaneously and wins- but he is adapting along the way. The Chelsea transfers couldn't be planned, nor the Son HOHO, nor, arguably the Leicester transfers. Through planning, he is converting FPL into a mostly closed system he can control, but he's also taking care of the open-ended aspect of it.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Stu255 » 12 Nov 2019, 21:22

SirMattBugsby wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 20:15
True.. although I must mention, he plays football in his free time.

It's certainly not beyond him to plan from start to finish for every team- the guy, after all, plays blind chess against ten opponents simultaneously and wins- but he is adapting along the way. The Chelsea transfers couldn't be planned, nor the Son HOHO, nor, arguably the Leicester transfers. Through planning, he is converting FPL into a mostly closed system he can control, but he's also taking care of the open-ended aspect of it.

He isn’t playing a closed game (in my humble opinion!).

He will (probably?) replan the entire season (or what remains of it) each week. Each GW will potentially invalidate his previous plan, but he will just create a new tactical plan over the same fixture schedule.

The middle game of Chess is about creating more options for yourself and restricting the options available to your opponent. It’s an information entropy battle. This is how the best AI’s play the middle game.


^^ much of this is very presumptive, it’s just how I see the transferable skills from GM chess. Memory is a much bigger factor in chess than most people think.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by math! » 12 Nov 2019, 21:53


SirMattBugsby wrote:
math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 19:24
Just looked at his season and we have the same points total over the last 5 GWs. I'm 4 points lower if you go back 6 weeks but I also took a -4 last week. This guy is 32 overall!

GW 4 and 6 are where I really lost out. That includes a -16 hit I did.

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.
The difference is in him recognizing the potential of Lundstram early and buying Abraham instead of Pukki (mentioned in the GW 1-4 notes). And, of course, the -16: Magnus would not approve mate :?
I didn't get Lundy earlier because I didn't know FPL classed him as a defender. At the time I was looking at Egan who was of course more expensive. As for Abraham I was playing it safe because I thought Giroud would rotate with him.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 13 Nov 2019, 13:30

Stu255 wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 21:22
SirMattBugsby wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 20:15
True.. although I must mention, he plays football in his free time.

It's certainly not beyond him to plan from start to finish for every team- the guy, after all, plays blind chess against ten opponents simultaneously and wins- but he is adapting along the way. The Chelsea transfers couldn't be planned, nor the Son HOHO, nor, arguably the Leicester transfers. Through planning, he is converting FPL into a mostly closed system he can control, but he's also taking care of the open-ended aspect of it.

He isn’t playing a closed game (in my humble opinion!).

He will (probably?) replan the entire season (or what remains of it) each week. Each GW will potentially invalidate his previous plan, but he will just create a new tactical plan over the same fixture schedule.

The middle game of Chess is about creating more options for yourself and restricting the options available to your opponent. It’s an information entropy battle. This is how the best AI’s play the middle game.


^^ much of this is very presumptive, it’s just how I see the transferable skills from GM chess. Memory is a much bigger factor in chess than most people think.
Interesting.. so what he's doing is constantly refining his long-term vision according to the new information each GW (which we could consider analogous to a single move in chess) offers? That's.. the guy is basically playing chess with us :lol: I would like to speculate though, on what his source of information is. Stats? xG? Surely can't be just eye-test, can it?
math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 21:53
SirMattBugsby wrote:
math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 19:24
Just looked at his season and we have the same points total over the last 5 GWs. I'm 4 points lower if you go back 6 weeks but I also took a -4 last week. This guy is 32 overall!

GW 4 and 6 are where I really lost out. That includes a -16 hit I did.

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.
The difference is in him recognizing the potential of Lundstram early and buying Abraham instead of Pukki (mentioned in the GW 1-4 notes). And, of course, the -16: Magnus would not approve mate :?
I didn't get Lundy earlier because I didn't know FPL classed him as a defender. At the time I was looking at Egan who was of course more expensive. As for Abraham I was playing it safe because I thought Giroud would rotate with him.
I'm not judging your choices for a single second math. I myself got Tammy in GW 9, which is the time when Carlsen was moving onto Leicester :oops: But on a sidenote, any particular reason you didn't consider a WC for the -16?

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by blahblah » 13 Nov 2019, 13:57

math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 19:24

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.
Cheating Bstrd!

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by noelix » 13 Nov 2019, 14:47

Cheers for doing this SirMattBugsby - I find this kind of thing fascinating! Only wish Magnus would come on here to confirm or deny our interpretations :D

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by math! » 13 Nov 2019, 15:11

SirMattBugsby wrote:
13 Nov 2019, 13:30
But on a sidenote, any particular reason you didn't consider a WC for the -16?
There was a couple of reasons 1. I didn't want to WC that early. I have done it every season previous and in the following weeks I learned a lot more about how the players and teams were performing which made me want to WC again. 2. This season started as my season off so to speak. I'm not in any money leagues and wasn't all that worried about where I finish. I felt it was another bad start and decided to take extreme measures to steady things to at least enjoy the game somewhat.

blahblah wrote:
13 Nov 2019, 13:57
math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 19:24

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.
Cheating Bstrd!
He is doing well in 'fantasy football' but he is failing miserably at 'fantasy blah' :lol:

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 13 Nov 2019, 15:26

math! wrote:
SirMattBugsby wrote:
13 Nov 2019, 13:30
But on a sidenote, any particular reason you didn't consider a WC for the -16?
There was a couple of reasons 1. I didn't want to WC that early. I have done it every season previous and in the following weeks I learned a lot more about how the players and teams were performing which made me want to WC again. 2. This season started as my season off so to speak. I'm not in any money leagues and wasn't all that worried about where I finish. I felt it was another bad start and decided to take extreme measures to steady things to at least enjoy the game somewhat.

blahblah wrote:
13 Nov 2019, 13:57
math! wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 19:24

He hasn't taken a single hit all season.
Cheating Bstrd!
He is doing well in 'fantasy football' but he is failing miserably at 'fantasy blah' Image
Agree with you on 1. My early WC this season is one I regret. I did it on a hunch when I'd have been better off with my original team's price points. I've since undone that WC team slowly and lost out on (in my estimate) atleast 30 points..

Good luck on your experimental season and I hope you're having fun (whatever that means Image)

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Sutter Kane » 13 Nov 2019, 15:44

Turd Ferguson wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:50
He clearly has a brilliant analytical mind. Interesting that he’s kept faith in Haller.
This is probably going to be his first hyper-successful season. Last season in comparison was a real let down after 2k in the previous one. I'm not sure we can take too much from one season in which he's doing brilliantly (and is possibly close favourite to win it!).

Unfortunately in a single season like the one he's currently having, a lot has to go your way, and it has. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on his progress over the coming weeks.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Turd Ferguson » 13 Nov 2019, 16:07

Stu255 wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 21:22
SirMattBugsby wrote:
12 Nov 2019, 20:15
True.. although I must mention, he plays football in his free time.

It's certainly not beyond him to plan from start to finish for every team- the guy, after all, plays blind chess against ten opponents simultaneously and wins- but he is adapting along the way. The Chelsea transfers couldn't be planned, nor the Son HOHO, nor, arguably the Leicester transfers. Through planning, he is converting FPL into a mostly closed system he can control, but he's also taking care of the open-ended aspect of it.

He isn’t playing a closed game (in my humble opinion!).

He will (probably?) replan the entire season (or what remains of it) each week. Each GW will potentially invalidate his previous plan, but he will just create a new tactical plan over the same fixture schedule.

The middle game of Chess is about creating more options for yourself and restricting the options available to your opponent. It’s an information entropy battle. This is how the best AI’s play the middle game.


^^ much of this is very presumptive, it’s just how I see the transferable skills from GM chess. Memory is a much bigger factor in chess than most people think.
I remember reading an article about Magnus. They quoted a friend of his who said that Magnus has a book of famous historical chess matches, and he can look at an image of the pieces on the board and tell you which match it was from with no other context.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by Beerfuelledman » 13 Nov 2019, 19:05

Whats the bets on his next move? Haller? Heaton? Aurier? maybe?

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 13 Nov 2019, 23:17

Beerfuelledman wrote:Whats the bets on his next move? Haller? Heaton? Aurier? maybe?
If Heaton is injured, he might make that transfer. Otherwise it's definitely Haller out for me. (Will he take a hit in this case?)

For whom, that is the question. He has, what, 9.8 ITB? Jimenez is a good option, but Rashford can be more explosive.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by baganboy » 14 Nov 2019, 13:19

What happens when your boss rebukes you for doing FPL stuff while at work? Why?

https://chess24.com/en/read/news/wesley ... ZNRubMzg_0

This is why.
:D :D :D :D

(Got the link from FB)

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 15 Nov 2019, 14:25

Gameweeks 9-12

Carlsen got in Maddison and Vardy for Son and Greenwood for GW 9. I like this move for two reasons:

1) Obviously the timing. This was the easier part since he had an otherwise settled team, although there were 2 WHU assets. Being a true Watson, I was still 'plotting' to get Abraham and Mane :oops:

2) The way he did it. He had enough funds from the Salah->Son sale to just upgrade Haller to Vardy, or Dend to Maddison. He decided for the double-up and opened up another attacking position in doing so, shifting from 4-4-2 to 3-4-3. Nice bit of structural play there, shifting the Salah funds to F3 over 2 weeks.

In hindsight, selling Anderson and Haller would've been more efficient (Carlsen ended up rebuying Son for GW 12) but his moves were a combination of playing West Ham's decent fixtures, wanting Martial for GW 11 alongwith Sterling and wanting 3 forwards. In the end, his moves didn't result in any hits or points loss and he's now well-placed to get another 9-ish forward in place of Haller.

Magnus is in control.

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Re: The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

Post by SirMattBugsby » 15 Nov 2019, 14:29

baganboy wrote:
14 Nov 2019, 13:19
What happens when your boss rebukes you for doing FPL stuff while at work? Why?

https://chess24.com/en/read/news/wesley ... ZNRubMzg_0

This is why.
:D :D :D :D

(Got the link from FB)
Sutter Kane wrote:
13 Nov 2019, 15:44
Turd Ferguson wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:50
He clearly has a brilliant analytical mind. Interesting that he’s kept faith in Haller.
This is probably going to be his first hyper-successful season. Last season in comparison was a real let down after 2k in the previous one. I'm not sure we can take too much from one season in which he's doing brilliantly (and is possibly close favourite to win it!).

Unfortunately in a single season like the one he's currently having, a lot has to go your way, and it has. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on his progress over the coming weeks.
Lol maybe the two are linked? Magnus is spending too much time on FPL and his work is suffering. Been there, still doing that :P

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