View Latest: 1 Day | FISO Injury Search

Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

A Fantasy Football forum for news on fantasy football games run by the Premierleague (FPL).
Post Reply
User avatar
owenclass
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1778
Joined: 08 Aug 2010, 21:03

Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by owenclass » 31 Aug 2019, 23:50

I think De Bruyne could be a better cheaper option as having two really expensive midfielders in Salah and Sterling does not work in the long term. So maybe captain Aguero from now on and improve the defence and midfield

FootballFanatic
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 339
Joined: 15 Aug 2017, 14:08

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by FootballFanatic » 01 Sep 2019, 00:34

Why Sterling and not Salah? Why give up on a player after one bad week?

Jarngard
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 40
Joined: 19 Dec 2009, 16:40
Location: Norway

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Jarngard » 01 Sep 2019, 02:41

The problem with having both Salah/Mane or Sterling/KDB/Kun is that you can only captian one of them. I believe an argument can be made that you can only hold on to one of these players, from the same team, for a longer period of time.

User avatar
Payet
Treebeard
Posts: 246
Joined: 27 Sep 2016, 12:46
FS Record: 2016/2017: 8.879

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Payet » 01 Sep 2019, 05:45

I would like Kun the most, but the thing is no matter how many goals he scores, Jesus will get his 30 minutes per game if fit. Just Guardiola stuff...

ricardo68
FISOhead
Posts: 630
Joined: 13 Jul 2010, 04:28

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by ricardo68 » 01 Sep 2019, 07:04

Can't believe anyone would hold, second top scorer and hasn't scored 20 since the first round.

User avatar
Stevieste
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1883
Joined: 19 Aug 2017, 10:28
FS Record: 1500

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Stevieste » 01 Sep 2019, 07:05

I think Aguero more likely to be rotated this season than Sterling and with the extra goal points, clean sheets points Sterling can receive each game, he is a set and forgot for me.

Good luck for the low % ownership managers that have him now, but i can see tears when he comes on for a few 1 pointers and they have him captain.

This game is marathon not a sprint, people can become blindsided by points earned on the game week rather than as a whole.

From4corners
FISO Knight
Posts: 13872
Joined: 24 Aug 2009, 22:32
Location: The Eyrie

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by From4corners » 01 Sep 2019, 09:03

Jarngard wrote:
01 Sep 2019, 02:41
The problem with having both Salah/Mane or Sterling/KDB/Kun is that you can only captian one of them. I believe an argument can be made that you can only hold on to one of these players, from the same team, for a longer period of time.
I'm waiting for that argument to be made. Thanks.

Jarngard
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 40
Joined: 19 Dec 2009, 16:40
Location: Norway

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Jarngard » 01 Sep 2019, 11:48

From4corners wrote:
01 Sep 2019, 09:03
Jarngard wrote:
01 Sep 2019, 02:41
The problem with having both Salah/Mane or Sterling/KDB/Kun is that you can only captian one of them. I believe an argument can be made that you can only hold on to one of these players, from the same team, for a longer period of time.
I'm waiting for that argument to be made. Thanks.
As already mentioned, you can only captain one of them. So far KDB has returned 9 PPG, and has more than justified his price tag. However, 9 PPG equals a 342 points season, I don't think anyone believe he can keep up this pace. Realistically, he will end up with ~200 points, that's 5,2 PPG and actually quite a bit off what you need in returns from his price point. Therefore, I believe you need to captain him in some of these games, or manage to identify his best runs and then ship him out. Will you ever captain KDB if you own Sterling and/or Kun?

I suppose there is also an opportunity cost here; if you run two premiums from the same team for a longer period of time, you will be missing out on other premiums with more favorable fixtures. If you see this differently, I'd love to hear about it :D Long term that is, I recognize that it can be good for shorter spells.

Ultimatt
Cheetah
Posts: 3
Joined: 13 Oct 2018, 04:55

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Ultimatt » 02 Sep 2019, 06:22

Jarngard wrote:
From4corners wrote:
01 Sep 2019, 09:03
Jarngard wrote:
01 Sep 2019, 02:41
The problem with having both Salah/Mane or Sterling/KDB/Kun is that you can only captian one of them. I believe an argument can be made that you can only hold on to one of these players, from the same team, for a longer period of time.
I'm waiting for that argument to be made. Thanks.
As already mentioned, you can only captain one of them. So far KDB has returned 9 PPG, and has more than justified his price tag. However, 9 PPG equals a 342 points season, I don't think anyone believe he can keep up this pace. Realistically, he will end up with ~200 points, that's 5,2 PPG and actually quite a bit off what you need in returns from his price point. Therefore, I believe you need to captain him in some of these games, or manage to identify his best runs and then ship him out. Will you ever captain KDB if you own Sterling and/or Kun?

I suppose there is also an opportunity cost here; if you run two premiums from the same team for a longer period of time, you will be missing out on other premiums with more favorable fixtures. If you see this differently, I'd love to hear about it :D Long term that is, I recognize that it can be good for shorter spells.
Going off his PL record 200 is about right. Let's say he plays 28 of the remaining 34 games:

36 current points
56 appearance points
14 clean sheets (~1 in 2)
27 points from goals (24 in 124 apps)
35 points from assists (51 in 124)
25 bonus points
-3 yellow cards
= 190 points.

A solid return but he's not the goalscorer Salah/sterling/mane are so will always struggle to break 200.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


User avatar
Stu255
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 432
Joined: 22 Aug 2018, 00:31

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Stu255 » 02 Sep 2019, 13:36

Ultimatt wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 06:22
Going off his PL record 200 is about right. Let's say he plays 28 of the remaining 34 games:

36 current points
56 appearance points
14 clean sheets (~1 in 2)
27 points from goals (24 in 124 apps)
35 points from assists (51 in 124)
25 bonus points
-3 yellow cards
= 190 points.

A solid return but he's not the goalscorer Salah/sterling/mane are so will always struggle to break 200.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
KDB so far...

xG90 = 0.23 = 1.15 ppg
xA90 = 0.70 = 2.1 ppg
xCS90 = 0.50 = 0.5 ppg

= 3.75

He has outperformed all of these so far...

xG90 = 0.23
G90 = 0.27

xA90 =0.70
A90 = 1.37

xCS90 = 0.50
CS90 = 0.55

Let’s agree and say 28/34 games? (82%)

(28 * 2pts) + (28 * 3.75) + (25 bps) + (36pts) - (3pts) = 219pts



But I say something has changed this season and maybe this shines a light?

Sterling penalty area entries / 90 = 2.75
De Bruyne penalty area entries/ 90 = 10.98

Man City goals = 14
from inside the box = 13

:wink:

Ladotelli
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 24
Joined: 12 Aug 2019, 09:23
FS Record: 13894

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Ladotelli » 02 Sep 2019, 14:07

Keeping Sterling for the season unless there's a huge drop off in form. I have Aguero and Salah as well, will drop Salah to Mane and ship Aguero out when Jesus is fit. Sterling will be the top point scorer by far this year.

User avatar
Stevieste
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1883
Joined: 19 Aug 2017, 10:28
FS Record: 1500

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Stevieste » 02 Sep 2019, 15:50

Ladotelli wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 14:07
Keeping Sterling for the season unless there's a huge drop off in form. I have Aguero and Salah as well, will drop Salah to Mane and ship Aguero out when Jesus is fit. Sterling will be the top point scorer by far this year.
Thats a big statement to make that is.

What are you basing that on ?

There was 4 goals scored his last game and he had no part in any of them

Jarngard
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 40
Joined: 19 Dec 2009, 16:40
Location: Norway

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Jarngard » 02 Sep 2019, 16:51

Sterling didnt score great at home against bottom sides last season, so this is a continuation of that trend.

User avatar
TriXaM
FISOhead
Posts: 599
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 11:32

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by TriXaM » 02 Sep 2019, 17:07

Stu255 wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 13:36
KDB so far...

xG90 = 0.23 = 1.15 ppg
xA90 = 0.70 = 2.1 ppg
xCS90 = 0.50 = 0.5 ppg

= 3.75

He has outperformed all of these so far...

xG90 = 0.23
G90 = 0.27

xA90 =0.70
A90 = 1.37

xCS90 = 0.50
CS90 = 0.55

Let’s agree and say 28/34 games? (82%)

(28 * 2pts) + (28 * 3.75) + (25 bps) + (36pts) - (3pts) = 219pts
I found it interesting thinking about these stats. I do think the projection is a little generous though. An xA90 of 0.70 is unsustainable based on historical stats. The xA90 of the highest assister in recent seasons was 0.52 (Ozil in 15/16). KDB himself managed 0.49 is his stellar 16/17 season. So an xA90 of 0.50 might be a more realistic estimate, bringing the total down by about 17 points and back into the ~200 point territory.

I personally think he was probably under-priced by about 0.5 to 1.0 million at the start of the season and he's now approaching his expected value after his price rises (currently 9.8). He still represents decent value, but taking into account the thoughts above and the imminent start of the champions league on 17th September and the doubts that will ensue about minutes etc. I don't see him as essential and will not cover Sterling imo.

Balen
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 35
Joined: 06 Apr 2013, 16:21

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Balen » 02 Sep 2019, 21:05

I have no trouble finding space for kdb besides 2 top premium(curently salah and sterling).

With KDB you can keep him in all fixtures and gett all his points. In the price braket below i feel its a on an of train(taking transfer, even -points?), and very hard to get all the points from the overperforming players. Knee jerk, Bandwagon.

User avatar
Zimmerman
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 29420
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:42
Location: having a picnic at the Bear Mountain

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Zimmerman » 02 Sep 2019, 21:19

Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 16:51
Sterling didnt score great at home against bottom sides last season, so this is a continuation of that trend.
Scored against Newcastle
Scored against Fulham
Assisted against Cardiff
Goal and assist v Brighton
2 goals and 2 assists v Southampton (pre-Hasenhüttl)
Goal And assist v Rotherham
Goal v Huddersfield

Fulham a (0)
Brighton a x 2 (0)

Jarngard
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 40
Joined: 19 Dec 2009, 16:40
Location: Norway

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Jarngard » 02 Sep 2019, 22:26

Zimmerman wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 21:19
Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 16:51
Sterling didnt score great at home against bottom sides last season, so this is a continuation of that trend.
Scored against Newcastle
Scored against Fulham
Assisted against Cardiff
Goal and assist v Brighton
2 goals and 2 assists v Southampton (pre-Hasenhüttl)
Goal And assist v Rotherham
Goal v Huddersfield

Fulham a (0)
Brighton a x 2 (0)
Yes, 8.5 avg ppg at home against bottom teams. Not so great.

Football Hero
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1099
Joined: 19 Aug 2014, 14:05

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Football Hero » 02 Sep 2019, 23:49

Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 22:26
Zimmerman wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 21:19
Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 16:51
Sterling didnt score great at home against bottom sides last season, so this is a continuation of that trend.
Scored against Newcastle
Scored against Fulham
Assisted against Cardiff
Goal and assist v Brighton
2 goals and 2 assists v Southampton (pre-Hasenhüttl)
Goal And assist v Rotherham
Goal v Huddersfield

Fulham a (0)
Brighton a x 2 (0)
Yes, 8.5 avg ppg at home against bottom teams. Not so great.
Didn't he average 6.9ppg last year? That means with a ppg of 8.5, he is outperforming his average by 23% in these matches which is about right. There is nothing wrong with his returns in these games.

Jarngard
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 40
Joined: 19 Dec 2009, 16:40
Location: Norway

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Jarngard » 03 Sep 2019, 06:58

Football Hero wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 23:49
Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 22:26
Zimmerman wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 21:19
Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 16:51
Sterling didnt score great at home against bottom sides last season, so this is a continuation of that trend.
Scored against Newcastle
Scored against Fulham
Assisted against Cardiff
Goal and assist v Brighton
2 goals and 2 assists v Southampton (pre-Hasenhüttl)
Goal And assist v Rotherham
Goal v Huddersfield

Fulham a (0)
Brighton a x 2 (0)
Yes, 8.5 avg ppg at home against bottom teams. Not so great.
Didn't he average 6.9ppg last year? That means with a ppg of 8.5, he is outperforming his average by 23% in these matches which is about right. There is nothing wrong with his returns in these games.
It actially is, when other premiums ppg was 11 in the same matches.

Football Hero
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1099
Joined: 19 Aug 2014, 14:05

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Football Hero » 03 Sep 2019, 08:25

Jarngard wrote:
03 Sep 2019, 06:58
Football Hero wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 23:49
Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 22:26
Zimmerman wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 21:19
Jarngard wrote:
02 Sep 2019, 16:51
Sterling didnt score great at home against bottom sides last season, so this is a continuation of that trend.
Scored against Newcastle
Scored against Fulham
Assisted against Cardiff
Goal and assist v Brighton
2 goals and 2 assists v Southampton (pre-Hasenhüttl)
Goal And assist v Rotherham
Goal v Huddersfield

Fulham a (0)
Brighton a x 2 (0)
Yes, 8.5 avg ppg at home against bottom teams. Not so great.
Didn't he average 6.9ppg last year? That means with a ppg of 8.5, he is outperforming his average by 23% in these matches which is about right. There is nothing wrong with his returns in these games.
It actially is, when other premiums ppg was 11 in the same matches.
Yes, but that is unsustainable, (scoring 100% more points than your average in 'easy' fixtures). Generally super easy fixtures would be about 33% ppg increase, good fixtures around 25% and fairly good fixtures around a 15% increase, so an average of 23% increase is not far outside the norm.

Other premiums scoring 100% more points in easy fixtures than their own average is very far outside of the norm. There will be a sample size issue here almost certainly.

So Sterling does fine in the easy fixtures still, he scores roughly the correct amount of additional ppg when the opponents are weaker.

Jarngard
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 40
Joined: 19 Dec 2009, 16:40
Location: Norway

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Jarngard » 03 Sep 2019, 09:33

I absolutely agree that the sample size is a bit small, but nevertheless, something to consider!

We all want to maximize our captaincy scores, and if it's actually true that some players perform better against more average teams then weak ones, the implication over 38 games is huge! 11-8.5 x2 x38 = 190. Well, that's not realistic, but rather shows the gap you'd like to close in.

Courtesy to Patrician who calculated all the PPGs vs different opponements from last season.

User avatar
Zimmerman
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 29420
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:42
Location: having a picnic at the Bear Mountain

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Zimmerman » 03 Sep 2019, 10:27

That’s illogical though.
There is so much variance in football to suspect that performance against a ‘type’ of opposition is going to illicit similar results.

Sterling missed out on Hudd (h), Burnley (h) and Cardiff (h) (they scored 6, 5, and 2 in those games). What might those fixtures have done for Sterling’s stats?

Do we assume he will be rested for those games this season too?

Last years promoted teams (Fulham and Cardiff) were whipping boys. Is there any guarantee that Norwich, Villa or Sheff U are going to be Fulham rather than Wolves? At what point do we decide who are the bad/weak teams that he won’t score well against?

User avatar
math!
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4294
Joined: 01 Aug 2015, 03:30

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by math! » 03 Sep 2019, 10:56

Once Basham realises he isn't playing for Man City, Sheffield United should be alright. Fulham and Cardiff were just genuinely bad. Fulham in particular had awful players at the back. SU are a good defensive team. Their defensive stats last season were pretty remarkable although I think it is still too early to see how they handle the EPL.

Norwich seem closer to Fulham at both defending and how they are in possession, though they are a lot better at attacking.

User avatar
Bixer
FISOhead
Posts: 532
Joined: 14 Dec 2015, 09:37

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Bixer » 04 Sep 2019, 11:01

Absolute madness

Newfounder
Wideboy
Posts: 52
Joined: 10 Sep 2015, 10:19
FS Record: poor, I always seem to finish nearer the bottom than the top

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Newfounder » 06 Sep 2019, 19:22

Maybe not this week. I have 2 options - swap Salah to Mane this week and then Sterling to KDB next week or roll a transfer and do 2 transfers next week. Depends on Selah vs Newcastle plus injuries etc.

User avatar
ALAN1289
Treebeard
Posts: 149
Joined: 27 Dec 2015, 13:04
Location: Angus Scotland
FS Record: 5th season

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by ALAN1289 » 06 Sep 2019, 20:09

No he's in for the season

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5852
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Sutter Kane » 06 Sep 2019, 20:51

ALAN1289 wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:09
No he's in for the season
Indeed. He's the one player I won't part with, almost a perma-captain: you have to assume being a year older and with KDB back, he's going to be better than last season.

Magic
Red & Blue Braces
Posts: 490
Joined: 16 Jul 2017, 08:29
FS Record: Improving

Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week

Post by Magic » 10 Sep 2019, 09:59

owenclass wrote:
31 Aug 2019, 23:50
Re: Anybody here going to get rid of Sterling in the next game week
Image

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Finisher1, GrapeshotCrawler, jv95, Kotzata, Owsler, tarkens and 43 guests