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Stu255
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Our Kevin

Post by Stu255 »

De Bruyne seems to be back to his very very best...

Discuss:

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Stevieste
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Stevieste »

No discussion needed, everyone knows when he fit and playing he is awesome

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Blue Fire
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Blue Fire »

Depends on the rest of your team. Not worth it if you aren't willing to captain him for a few games (thereby rules him out if you have Sterling)

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From4corners
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by From4corners »

Blue Fire wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 19:54 Depends on the rest of your team. Not worth it if you aren't willing to captain him for a few games (thereby rules him out if you have Sterling)
I never think like that and choose to ignore this. If I think he will score well and can fit him in, hell no I'll ignore him if I ain't willing to captain him. He's in my team since the start and would have been even if I had Sterling.

Hotstepper
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Hotstepper »

I started Sterling-free, with Salah and Kane instead, so time to bring in Kevin.

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Stemania
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Stemania »

I'm perfectly happy to have him and never captain him (which is my current setup) alongside Salah & Sterling. I simply see the extra money (vs, say, the second best 7-8m mid) as best spent on KDB than anywhere else in my team at the moment, and that trumps any notion of a price-limit on non-captains (which, like f4c, I don't subscribe to as a rule anyway). :)

My slight concern is that he might be rotated a little when the schedule gets busy, as Pep mentioned they might have to manage his minutes this year. Will be keeping an eye on Son as a fallback, though may prefer redistributing if it comes to that.

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Mav3rick
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Mav3rick »

We had the debate about KDB in the STC and elsewhere before the season started, so I don't think anyone is surprised by KDB's performances. I think everyone more or less accepts that he's a 180-200 player depending on minutes played and that he's worthy of anyone's FPL money.

As Stem says its all about the VORP here and unless the 7.5+ strikers come to the party it's easy to see KDB justifying a spot without captaincy. Personally I have a decision to make with him now having been backing the 8.0 striker + second 7.5 midfielder in the KBD + cheapie striker slots, I think some combination in that range is going to smash the KDB+cheapie route, but the issue is knowing which combination that is while KDB is a pretty safe pair of hands.

I'd hoped to have a somewhat clearer picture of those options now but we don't seem to quite be there with front runner alternative combinations yet.

hancockjr
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by hancockjr »

Blue Fire wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 19:54 Depends on the rest of your team. Not worth it if you aren't willing to captain him for a few games (thereby rules him out if you have Sterling)
Never understood this thinking. You only get one captain a week, does that mean you should only have one good player a week?

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Blue Fire
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Blue Fire »

hancockjr wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 20:56
Blue Fire wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 19:54 Depends on the rest of your team. Not worth it if you aren't willing to captain him for a few games (thereby rules him out if you have Sterling)
Never understood this thinking. You only get one captain a week, does that mean you should only have one good player a week?
The other expensive players make up for their lack of value when they are captained in the subsequent weeks. Expensive players are only vfm for short stretches or if they're captained at times

hancockjr
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by hancockjr »

I’ve not seen the maths to prove this.

yaozong7
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by yaozong7 »

Mav3rick wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 20:45 We had the debate about KDB in the STC and elsewhere before the season started, so I don't think anyone is surprised by KDB's performances. I think everyone more or less accepts that he's a 180-200 player depending on minutes played and that he's worthy of anyone's FPL money.

As Stem says its all about the VORP here and unless the 7.5+ strikers come to the party it's easy to see KDB justifying a spot without captaincy. Personally I have a decision to make with him now having been backing the 8.0 striker + second 7.5 midfielder in the KBD + cheapie striker slots, I think some combination in that range is going to smash the KDB+cheapie route, but the issue is knowing which combination that is while KDB is a pretty safe pair of hands.

I'd hoped to have a somewhat clearer picture of those options now but we don't seem to quite be there with front runner alternative combinations yet.
Thus far, the most likely combination to beat/match KDB/Pukki is Siggy/Wilson. Over the course of a season, I think there's not much diff betw both choices but FPL is a game of mini-sprints.

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Stu255
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Stu255 »

City v Spurs ended 2-2

But City had 30 shots to Spurs 3, the game could easily have been 6-0 and Spurs are the number 3 team.

5 of those shots were from KDB and of the remaining 25 shots a full 13 of those were from KDB attempted assists.

KDB is either shooting himself or providing 50% of City’s assists. At this rate he will score 20 goals (he is taking 1in5 of City’s shots) and he will get 40+ assists.

That’s a 300pts season. Now that’s a big extrapolation from one game, but it’s the body language of the City players towards De Bruyne after every play that I find most revealing. They all orbit him.

Some of his passes were so good as to be alien to his teammates, he confused a few of them more than once, but they all know that if they can’t get onto KDB wavelength they will be sitting on the bench.

hancockjr
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by hancockjr »

KDB pukki will outscore Wilson Siggy by a country mile.

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Richt
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Richt »

hancockjr wrote: 19 Aug 2019, 11:52 KDB pukki will outscore Wilson Siggy by a country mile.
this!

hancockjr
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by hancockjr »

Blue Fire wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 21:13
hancockjr wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 20:56
Blue Fire wrote: 17 Aug 2019, 19:54 Depends on the rest of your team. Not worth it if you aren't willing to captain him for a few games (thereby rules him out if you have Sterling)
Never understood this thinking. You only get one captain a week, does that mean you should only have one good player a week?
The other expensive players make up for their lack of value when they are captained in the subsequent weeks. Expensive players are only vfm for short stretches or if they're captained at times
I intend to captain Sterling every game - I just don’t see a better option at the moment, even Kane this coming week. Does that mean I shouldn’t have anyone above £8m in my team apart from Sterling?

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Sutter Kane »

I think if you're planning to captain Sterling every game, a case can be made for all other premiums being too expensive. But then, you do have to spend all of the money and the landscape of FPL options currently may negate a squad full of mid-priced options. I certainly don't think one should have Salah long term if you intend to captain Sterling each week - I'm probably shifting him GW6 for that reason. KDB is significantly cheaper than Salah however.

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Zimmerman
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Zimmerman »

It’s this nuance I cannot compute (and might explain my continued mediocrity).

But I want the premium players to offset the risk of relying on the mid-priced players like Barkley, Perez, Wilson and King et al.

Maybe if I can detach myself from the galactico approach I might actually kick on.

hancockjr
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by hancockjr »

Mid priced players from big clubs are th ones that always get me in trouble - eg Pedro last season. They get dropped and then lose value very quickly.

KDB is ok as he’s not at risk of dropping but most mid priced are from big clubs.

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Lucky
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Lucky »

The quality of KDB is out of question for me. What I am worried about is that he is a bit injury-prone. Beyond that I am worried about Pep's frequent rotation. Once the CL starts, this would be my main concern. Out of Sterling and KDB, I would expect Sterling to be the more guaranteed starter.

I missed the first price rise. I decided not to chase him, but I might consider him short term during the season.

OldSkoolFPL
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by OldSkoolFPL »

I would love to have him but you can't have them all, think Salah, Sterling & Kane will prove to be more important over the season because all 3 will be captained by thousands every week.

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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Glenjamin »

Kev is an 11m player at 9.whatever. He's a great asset. Absolutely shredded spurs, was hard to watch to be honest.

I think you can be basically guaranteed if City score he was part of it. While sterling may get alot of goals. So will Aguero, Jesus, bilva and mahrez. Kev will assist heaps of them and score a few himself.

OIEIAO
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by OIEIAO »

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned what a frustrating player he has been to own in seasons past, and I don't mean because of injury. "Kevin de blank", anyone? The man who always assists the assister?

I'm willing to believe he has improved and become more vital to the team since then - and that may have a corresponding fpl impact. but I can hardly think of a time where he's been essential for FPL in his time at city. I recall one of my few good calls early last season was being willing to ignore him when he was being talked up after 2 or 3 good weeks - I don't have the data to demonstrate this though. Have his numbers improved that much since pre injury?

I may be the only person who wonders if Bernardo silva - who I currently own - can justify the 1.7m saving on him. I may even make the switch before today's deadline but it's tricky.

poohdini
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by poohdini »

As long as he's healthy, he'll have a 200+ year that's for sure. He had 209 points in 2018 and 199 the year before. I had him to begin 2018 but he played deep in the first two games (blanked in both) before I took him out and he went crazy after that. I expect another similar season from him with around 20 assists.

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Stu255
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Stu255 »

Whoosh, has the confidence to Captain KDB over Salah and Kane this week and it’s paid off with a decent haul.

I think he will manage ~250 FPL points if he maintains his current level of involvement in City’s attack. Their goals come from everywhere but 50% of their chances come from De Bruyne.

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Clearly he is one of the very best players in the league, playing with confidence for the best team, and underpriced this year due to last season's injuries - so is a very good pick.

But.....[bitter comment from someone who doesn't own him].... his points returns so far are on the lucky side of what is feasible. In particular, there is no way he will finish the season with Actual Assists > 4 times xA.

FranckKessie
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by FranckKessie »

Bobby Fetta wrote: 01 Sep 2019, 20:27 Clearly he is one of the very best players in the league, playing with confidence for the best team, and underpriced this year due to last season's injuries - so is a very good pick.

But.....[bitter comment from someone who doesn't own him].... his points returns so far are on the lucky side of what is feasible. In particular, there is no way he will finish the season with Actual Assists > 4 times xA.
Understat has him at 5A vs 2.98xA does Opta really have him at 4x xA?

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Something weird just happened to the FFS members area (MCI gw4 mids expected goal stats have disappeared, on my computer anyway) but I think his season total was about 1.14 when I looked 15 minutes ago.

Was just about to check Understat - maybe it is mainly Opta's xA model being bad then? I don't place that much weight in xA data but I think overperformance of +100% would be a realistic upper limit over a full season.

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Stu255
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Stu255 »

Bobby Fetta wrote: 01 Sep 2019, 20:27 Clearly he is one of the very best players in the league, playing with confidence for the best team, and underpriced this year due to last season's injuries - so is a very good pick.

But.....[bitter comment from someone who doesn't own him].... his points returns so far are on the lucky side of what is feasible. In particular, there is no way he will finish the season with Actual Assists > 4 times xA.
I have his xA90 as 0.68 and his A90 as 1.37 so not quite >4. More like =2.0

But I fully expect him to outperform xA over a season (perhaps by about 50%) because these are all situations where the shooter has received the ball from Kevin De Bruyne which means the pass arrives with extra magical information entropy bound up in it, because Kevin De Bruyne himself has determined that this pass is the optimal pass.

And I only have to watch him play to realise that everyone around him (not just defenders but his own teammates) is completely baffled about how he picks out some of the passes he finds. He is on another level.

It’s not the football itself that is telling, it’s the looks on players faces (both teams) after each KDB initiated move.

I honestly wonder if whilst he was injured last season he spent 20 hours a week with 3 or 4 ex-CERN guys turned football analysts. It’s like he’s gained 20 IQ points whilst he was out and he was already among the best at creating spaces in defences. It’s like he has spent months meticulously studying his own teammates and their on field behaviour.

Something strange has happened here.

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Where are your stats from Stu?

Based on Understat, overall he has overperformed xA by about 15% since 2014. I can well believe he will exceed that this season and wouldn't be surprised by 50%. Wish I had him in my team (since gw1) but you can't have everyone and I don't have an easy route to do that at the moment. So maybe it is wishful thinking that he will slow down the points scoring soon!

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dino1980
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Re: Our Kevin

Post by dino1980 »

Bobby Fetta wrote: 01 Sep 2019, 20:54 Something weird just happened to the FFS members area (MCI gw4 mids expected goal stats have disappeared, on my computer anyway) but I think his season total was about 1.14 when I looked 15 minutes ago.

Was just about to check Understat - maybe it is mainly Opta's xA model being bad then? I don't place that much weight in xA data but I think overperformance of +100% would be a realistic upper limit over a full season.
There’s a guy on Twitter @rogue_wee who took a look into the difference between Understat’s and FFS (Opta’s) method of calculating xA. https://twitter.com/rogue_wee/status/11 ... 00226?s=21

As I understand it.

Understat: just the sum of the xG of the shots a player sets up.
Opta: method is based on the final location of the pass (the point at which the responsibility of the passer ends) - shot, or no shot.

https://twitter.com/rogue_wee/status/11 ... 99936?s=21

So extreme example...

KDB passes to Sterling 30 yards out dead centre on the pitch, he beats five men and taps it from right on the goal line.
On Understat that’d equal 0.99 xA while on Opta that’s be something like 0.05 xA (or whatever the xA of a shot 30 yards out from the centre of the field is.)

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