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Salah v Mané

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MOBIUS
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Salah v Mané

Post by MOBIUS » 15 Aug 2019, 13:04

Anyone else wondering if the potential points gap between Salah and Mané is closing? And enough to justify saving £1m to upgrade elsewhere?
🤔

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231 Mané
Last edited by MOBIUS on 15 Aug 2019, 14:08, edited 1 time in total.

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math!
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by math! » 15 Aug 2019, 14:02

InSane in the membMane?

I'd like to swap Salah for Mane (not Sane).

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Zimmerman
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Zimmerman » 15 Aug 2019, 14:06

I think Salah has now taking ownership for pens... that might increase the gap.

(He only took 3/7 League pens last year).

Although I’m not sure if we’ve had one whilst Milner has been on the pitch.

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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by FootballFanatic » 15 Aug 2019, 14:10

I like Salah more personally even factoring in the price gap. Depends if you’re a gambler or not. I’m not.

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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by blahblah » 15 Aug 2019, 15:34

Zimmerman wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 14:06
I think Salah has now taking ownership for pens... that might increase the gap.

(He only took 3/7 League pens last year).

Although I’m not sure if we’ve had one whilst Milner has been on the pitch.
And some corners....

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Zimmerman
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Zimmerman » 15 Aug 2019, 16:39

Always was/has

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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by blahblah » 15 Aug 2019, 20:55

Maybe I didn't notice when I had him....

I freaking did on Friday 😂

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Ruth_NZ » 16 Aug 2019, 04:13

To me it is quite simple. You don't have Salah or Mané (other than for a very short period or for a situation-specific reason) without the intention of quite often captaining them. That applies to any 11m+ player. Salah is a better captain than Mané because he is likely to score more points. So you have Salah (or neither). End of story.

Mané is (or should be) for most intents and purposes a dead option for FPL. The price difference is too small to make him worthwhile over Salah and his valuation is too high to have as a non-captaincy option.

Martial and Rashford are also 1m apart but both can justify their valuation without captaincy so you could have both and not be making a fundamental error. The only other pair I can think of like Salah & Mané would be Sterling & Aguero, where you also should only have one of the two if you understand the game right.

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Blue Fire
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Blue Fire » 16 Aug 2019, 06:22

Ruth_NZ wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 04:13
Martial and Rashford are also 1m apart but both can justify their valuation without captaincy so you could have both and not be making a fundamental error. The only other pair I can think of like Salah & Mané would be Sterling & Aguero, where you also should only have one of the two if you understand the game right.
What do you think about the 30ppm theory doing the rounds here? Going by that, Martial and Rashford would need to score 225 and 255 points respectively to be viable picks. Essentially kills one of them as an option.
Last edited by Blue Fire on 16 Aug 2019, 08:25, edited 1 time in total.

HungryHungrySuarez
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by HungryHungrySuarez » 16 Aug 2019, 07:41

Could you briefly go over the 30ppg theory? I've not seen mention of it before.

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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by HungryHungrySuarez » 16 Aug 2019, 07:46

Ruth_NZ wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 04:13
To me it is quite simple. You don't have Salah or Mané (other than for a very short period or for a situation-specific reason) without the intention of quite often captaining them. That applies to any 11m+ player. Salah is a better captain than Mané because he is likely to score more points. So you have Salah (or neither). End of story.
Does this mean you rarely have more than one of Salah, Sterling, Mane, Aguero, Kane and Aubamayang in your squad?

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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Patrician » 16 Aug 2019, 07:49

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 04:13
To me it is quite simple. You don't have Salah or Mané (other than for a very short period or for a situation-specific reason) without the intention of quite often captaining them. That applies to any 11m+ player. Salah is a better captain than Mané because he is likely to score more points. So you have Salah (or neither). End of story.
Does this mean you rarely have more than one of Salah, Sterling, Mane, Aguero, Kane and Aubamayang in your squad?
No, the issue is when they are from the same team, because you can only captain one of them, and the favourable fixtures are obviously identical.



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Sutter Kane
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Sutter Kane » 16 Aug 2019, 08:16

There are occasions during a season where it might be beneficial to own two players from the same team who are expensive - such as a nice run of easy fixtures where you'd expect a team to rack up the goals. This isn't really applicable to Liverpool because they have so many great options (when Allison returns to shore up the defence). But for Man C, having 2 big name attackers is not a mistake if you think they'll smash the goals in for fun during a run, the only problem being the cost of fitting them all in...

I think Ruth is probably right though - with Man City's potential rotation situation, I'd probably steer clear of anyone other than one of their attackers. Oh and I agree and I've mentioned it before about Mane - he's just too expensive.

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Blue Fire
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Blue Fire » 16 Aug 2019, 08:31

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 07:41
Could you briefly go over the 30ppg theory? I've not seen mention of it before.
Basically you need to get 30 points from every million spent to finish around 2500 points. Martial, at 7.5, would therefore need to score at 5.92 ppg (therefore get 225 points). Rashford at 6.71 (255 points) and so on..

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Billy Bongo
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Billy Bongo » 16 Aug 2019, 09:20

But that theory is flawed one simple reason, it's 30m per position on the pitch and you rotate players in and out of your team

Only those strange people that forget you've got a transfer per week to use and who get fixated by team value so keep players too long are fixated by this

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Salah v Mané

Post by Ruth_NZ » 16 Aug 2019, 10:52

Sutter Kane wrote: There are occasions during a season where it might be beneficial to own two players from the same team who are expensive - such as a nice run of easy fixtures where you'd expect a team to rack up the goals. I think Ruth is probably right though - with Man City's potential rotation situation, I'd probably steer clear of anyone other than one of their attackers. Oh and I agree and I've mentioned it before about Mané - he's just too expensive.
Yeah, that's what I meant by "a very short period or situation-specific". For example if Sterling were to get injured and be expected to be 4 weeks out at a time when Liverpool had 4 great fixtures, you might take Mané as well as Salah for that period, thinking that his points ceiling is particularly high at a time where having him could solve a problem in a simple way for you. But conversations at this stage are generally about the season in general rather than very specific situations, no?
Blue Fire wrote:What do you think about the 30ppm theory doing the rounds here? Going by that, Martial and Rashford would need to score 225 and 255 points respectively to be viable picks. Essentially kills one of them as an option.
I think it is over-simplified (and wrong), because it is based on the fallacy that you have 100m to spend. You don't. You have around 33m to spend. You are obliged to have 15 players and even if you take the cheapest possible options (that will actually play and score some appearance points) then you can't avoid an obligatory spend of around 67m. The game insists on that.

FPL is all about what you do with the 33m that you have a choice about (I call it discretionary budget). You have to get more with it (ppm) than you will get from the 67m obligatory spend if you are to get near 2500 points.

As a very rough (but practical) rule of thumb, you could work on the basis of 18 ppm for the first 4.5m of a player's price and you would then need to achieve around 33 ppm above 4.5m in order to achieve a winning score. That could be slightly lower if you killed captaincy and/or nailed the chips but it's in the ballpark.

That means that a 7.5m player (Martial) needs around 180 season points to deliver value whereas Mané at 11.5m would need 312. Martial could well hit that target or get fairly close. Mané, with the best will in the world, won't get near to 312. That is why you have to be very careful with players valued at 10m or above. There is very little chance they can deliver value (other than in the short-term if you can time it right) without being used quite often as a captain. There is a lot more that could be said about it - and value is an important ingredient but not the only ingredient in selecting a player - but that's the basic theory I would use as a guideline myself.

PS. BillyB is also right. You are best dividing the above numbers by 38 and looking at points per game per million. For Martial the target would be 4.74 and for Mané it would be 8.21. That's why SK is right that a player like Mané can deliver value over a short period - he could easily average 8.21 ppg over a 4-game stretch when fixtures are kind and Liverpool are in rampant form. But he is highly unlikely to average that over a season. So the calculation that counts is of the points a player scores while he is actually in your team.

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