Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

[Pirlo's Beard]

Seems he has played in all 4 defensive positions this season.

Right-back, left-back, centre-back, and....... in goal?

[math!]

Seems he has played in all 4 defensive positions this season.

Right-back, left-back, centre-back, and....... in goal?

Other CB (right CB?) though I'm not sure if he has. Seems valuable to have him if he can pop up in multiple combinations.

[Smurphy's Paw]

Having spent the last 20 minutes perusing options I suspect that Targett has more potential for GW18&19 when I’d need him.
That leaves me the Blades double up option next week via Henderson

[dino1980]

Banking this week I think and will need to do something about Mount soon.

Right to bench him this week?

Pope (MCI)
Alexander-Arnold (EVE), Tomori (AST), Soyuncu (WAT), Lundstram (NEW)
De Bruyne (bur), Mane (EVE), Son (mun), Maddison (WAT)
Vardy (WAT), Abraham (AST)

Subs: Mount (AST), Rico (cry), Greenwood (TOT)

He'll probably come in for Tammy anyway.

Interesting, we have almost the exact same squad but my Pulisic and Connolly to your Mount and Greenwood.

I’m resisting the urge to make a transfer this week and will most likely bench Tomori from my Chelsea trio.

With that being the case, I might do Tomori -> Kelly at some point to save some pennies.

I’ve been wondering about Kelly. He seems to be in and out of the team though. For how long is he likely to be a starter? I need GW18 cover more than, say, £0.2m to Rico

Ward is meant to be out to the new year so Kelly should play GW18.

[TheRumourMill]

Kelly is absolutely nailed on until the new year due to usual right back ward's injury. The fact they kept a clean sheet with 10 men for 70 mins is a testament to hogesons organisation.

That's the case for Kelly. The case against is that they now have sakho suspended for 3 games, ward injured, Cahill injured, Dann injured, PVA injured. That leaves Kelly, schlupp and tomkins as the only fit defenders in the squad. Although all that makes Kelly a certain starter it can't be good for defensive performance!

[RuudTheDudeVanTheMan]

Kelly is absolutely nailed on until the new year due to usual right back ward's injury. The fact they kept a clean sheet with 10 men for 70 mins is a testament to hogesons organisation.

That's the case for Kelly. The case against is that they now have sakho suspended for 3 games, ward injured, Cahill injured, Dann injured, PVA injured. That leaves Kelly, schlupp and tomkins as the only fit defenders in the squad. Although all that makes Kelly a certain starter it can't be good for defensive performance!

Cahill is expected to be back for the weekend but yeah still looking fairly threadbare.

[Smurphy's Paw]

Thanks TRM
I wish I didn’t have to make the decision this week but a Digne downgrade is the only way that I can afford Mount to Alli.
The shortlist is Kelly or Targett
At the moment the clincher will likely be GW18s Newcastle away for Palace or Southampton at home for Villa. Newcastle away looks like the tougher fixture.

[Sutter Kane]

The shortlist is Kelly or Targett

Oh yeah, I'd definitely go Targett for the attacking returns too.

Weirdly before Ward's injury I removed Kelly for Rico with GW18 in mind. [Didn't play him this week though]. Frustratingly, Kelly looks good for a while now!

[MHiggi]

Damn, didn't realise the deadline was 7:30! Thought I had another 5 mins!

I missed it as well, so Abraham will start on my bench. Two FTs for the weekend though!

Abraham coming off the bench for Tomori, that’s a stroke of luck.

[Smurphy's Paw]

Damn, didn't realise the deadline was 7:30! Thought I had another 5 mins!

I missed it as well, so Abraham will start on my bench. Two FTs for the weekend though!

Abraham coming off the bench for Tomori, that’s a stroke of luck.

Certainly is

[Sammy the Crab]

Transferred out Tomori for Kelly with my first free transfer leaving me with 1.1m in the bank and:

Pope, 4.0
Alexander-Arnold, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Kelly, Rico
Mane, De Bruyne, Son, Maddison, Mount
Vardy, Abraham, Greenwood

Worth switching Son to Alli? This would allow a decent amount of cash for upgrading Mount next week.

[FranckKessie]

Transferred out Tomori for Kelly with my first free transfer leaving me with 1.1m in the bank and:

Pope, 4.0
Alexander-Arnold, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Kelly, Rico
Mane, De Bruyne, Son, Maddison, Mount
Vardy, Abraham, Greenwood

Worth switching Son to Alli? This would allow a decent amount of cash for upgrading Mount next week.

Effectively whether you have 1.1m or (1.1+Price(Son)-Price(Alli)) to replace Mount for is irrelevant, because there are close to no one but Alli and Son in the price bracket 8M+ in Midfield.

I'd go Mount Pulisic in your shoes. Bank next week and go into GW18 with 2 transfers.

[math!]

Transferred out Tomori for Kelly with my first free transfer leaving me with 1.1m in the bank and:

Pope, 4.0
Alexander-Arnold, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Kelly, Rico
Mane, De Bruyne, Son, Maddison, Mount
Vardy, Abraham, Greenwood

Worth switching Son to Alli? This would allow a decent amount of cash for upgrading Mount next week.

I switched Son for Alli and upgraded Mount to Pulisic this week. I didn't have 1.1m spare though.

[Sammy the Crab]

I did Mount to Pulisic in the end

Think I will rid myself of KDB this week for Alli. City look shocking at the moment.

[SG_8]

Think I will rid myself of KDB this week for Alli. City look shocking at the moment.

He was top for xA amongst all players this gameweek. Can't believe he didn't get a single assist in the match. Biggest underperformance in terms of assists in the last 4 gameweeks too (highest xA delta), surely the points are coming. Would especially hold for Arsenal next at the very least.

I think the other City players are letting him down, he's been doing what he does but the chances aren't getting finished. Aguero's return could prompt a return to form for City.

[hancockjr]

Understat has him on a whole 0.46 xA. A whole 1.5 points missed out on.

[SG_8]

Understat has him on a whole 0.46 xA. A whole 1.5 points missed out on.

Opta has him on 0.79 (which is pretty high for a single match). In any case, it's not wise to directly calculate pts from expected stats like that. If you calculate it like that most players will only be expected to get 4-5 pts most weeks. Most will outperform their xG/xA, and De Bruyne could have easily bagged a hatful of assists in the last few weeks. I think it's fine to get rid, but would hold for the Arsenal match at the very least.

[hancockjr]

I've got rid already, but I agree he could score heavily v Arsenal.

[Stu255]

We all know that an on form City can reach higher gears than anyone else, but at the moment they’re stuck in 3rd.

I think all the injuries has taken all the competition out of winning first team places and Pep’s group culture and narrative obviously relied on this.

[Turd Ferguson]

Rashford now leads the league in xG. Granted it's inflated by an absurd 6 penalties already this season, but he seems to be developing into the main man for United. Should he be in more of our teams? Is Vardy, Abraham, Rashford the front line for the rest of the season?

For me it means switching from 5 midfielders, which means I'd have to go without one of the likes of Pulisic, Martial, Alli, Maddison, etc. There's a lot of value floating around in midfield at the moment.

[Smurphy's Paw]

I agree TF
However as well as those three, and at only a smidge over £6m, there’s Ings. He has a goal in each of his last five games and when he scores he’s often in the bonus points as well. He’s got a tricky Christmas/New Year period but either side of that he’d be tough to drop.
So my question is who to leave out?

[blahblah]

I'll toss Kane into this mix, especially as cash doesn't seem an issue this season.

Chelsea looked tired, weary etc at the weekend so I'm thinking Kane, Vardy then probably Ings (I have the last 2 plus Tammy atm). Then when Soton's fixtures tyrn look at Tammy vs Rashford, or drop down to 2 up top.

The Joker in this pack is Martinelli, if he keeps starting. I sold him for Ings when Tammy was "injured"....

[Joccki_10]

I agree TF
However as well as those three, and at only a smidge over £6m, there’s Ings. He has a goal in each of his last five games and when he scores he’s often in the bonus points as well. He’s got a tricky Christmas/New Year period but either side of that he’d be tough to drop.
So my question is who to leave out?

Hi SP, tbh I don’t think Abraham is going to start every game over the upcoming festive period. I own Vardy, Rashford - who I just brought in for Lacazette - and Ings and I will be eagerly watching Calvert-Lewin in the next two GWs. If the latter starts both games, I’ll be very tempted to bring him in for Ings in GW19 with Cantwell filling in for him in GW21.

I’ve been wrong about Tammy before though!

[Turd Ferguson]

I agree TF
However as well as those three, and at only a smidge over £6m, there’s Ings. He has a goal in each of his last five games and when he scores he’s often in the bonus points as well. He’s got a tricky Christmas/New Year period but either side of that he’d be tough to drop.
So my question is who to leave out?

Hi SP, tbh I don’t think Abraham is going to start every game over the upcoming festive period. I own Vardy, Rashford - who I just brought in for Lacazette - and Ings and I will be eagerly watching Calvert-Lewin in the next two GWs. If the latter starts both games, I’ll be very tempted to bring him in for Ings in GW19 with Cantwell filling in for him in GW21.

I’ve been wrong about Tammy before though!

Ings has hurt me the last few weeks. I almost brought him in when Tammy was injured, but I had a 7.2 purchase price on Tammy so I decided to protect the team value. Fair play to those who picked him, he's had a nice run. However, starting GW18 he has this: avl, che, CRY, TOT, lei, WOL, cry, liv. 5 away games and 7 of the 8 against above average defenses. I think he'll be a drag on his owners over that time.

[blahblah]

The first 2 are OK, but the next 3 or 4 are .
....

[Turd Ferguson]

The sputtering of the super premiums this year along with the nice performance of Lundstram and Soyuncu makes for interesting terrain. At the beginning of the year, I had Salah and Sterling down as my two super premiums for the year, but they're not delivering. It leaves a lot of cash for players in the 7-10 range. I'm looking at this front 7 for GW20-24 (Spurs get two games against Norwich in that time). After which Liverpool starts a great run and Mane/Salah will have to come back in for the captaincy option.

KdB/Son/Alli/Pulisic
Vardy/Abraham/Rashford

Pulisic can become any number of players at that price point if his recent slowdown becomes permanent. I'm a believer in him, though. He looks hungrier for goals than Maddison or Martial.

[jacksosi]

To avoid those, I have Ings Maupay pencilled in from GW20 for this Brighton run...

[blahblah]

Bstrd, my plan was Ings to Tammy

[Gambit]

Rashford now leads the league in xG. Granted it's inflated by an absurd 6 penalties already this season, but he seems to be developing into the main man for United. Should he be in more of our teams? Is Vardy, Abraham, Rashford the front line for the rest of the season?

For me it means switching from 5 midfielders, which means I'd have to go without one of the likes of Pulisic, Martial, Alli, Maddison, etc. There's a lot of value floating around in midfield at the moment.

Yes, I've switched from my favourite 3-5-2 to 3-4-3 so I can accomodate Rashford.

My front seven is now

Maddison / Son / Mane / Pulisic
Vardy / Kane / Rashford

Zaha was the player I've removed for Rashford (I had enough banked to make up the difference)

I feel with V / K / R I've got three players who should be nailed over this Christmas period, all are on penalties and all are their teams best/key player in my opinion. I don't think Ings will continue to score, Abraham could be rested/rotated/reduced minutes etc, Jiminez has some very tough games, Firmino has a blank and Klopp already starting to mess about. So for me V/K/R is hopefully a safe and reliable choice for December - and all are genuine C choices too.

Pulisic is the player I am most twitchy on as he's looked poor/tired, will see what happens this GW but he could become Martial/D Silva/B Silva/Richarlison or once December is over I can do Kane/Pulisic to Abraham/Alli, or bring a City player (KDB/Sterling) back in.

[Spreadsheet]

Rashford now leads the league in xG. Granted it's inflated by an absurd 6 penalties already this season, but he seems to be developing into the main man for United. Should he be in more of our teams? Is Vardy, Abraham, Rashford the front line for the rest of the season?

For me it means switching from 5 midfielders, which means I'd have to go without one of the likes of Pulisic, Martial, Alli, Maddison, etc. There's a lot of value floating around in midfield at the moment.

Yes, I've switched from my favourite 3-5-2 to 3-4-3 so I can accomodate Rashford.

My front seven is now

Maddison / Son / Mane / Pulisic
Vardy / Kane / Rashford

Zaha was the player I've removed for Rashford (I had enough banked to make up the difference)

I feel with V / K / R I've got three players who should be nailed over this Christmas period, all are on penalties and all are their teams best/key player in my opinion. I don't think Ings will continue to score, Abraham could be rested/rotated/reduced minutes etc, Jiminez has some very tough games, Firmino has a blank and Klopp already starting to mess about. So for me V/K/R is hopefully a safe and reliable choice for December - and all are genuine C choices too.

Pulisic is the player I am most twitchy on as he's looked poor/tired, will see what happens this GW but he could become Martial/D Silva/B Silva/Richarlison or once December is over I can do Kane/Pulisic to Abraham/Alli, or bring a City player (KDB/Sterling) back in.

I like this front 7 and the logic you’ve outlined seems sound. One observation I have though is you’re discounting KDB- do you not think Man City are about to turn it back on over the next few game weeks? Even their hardest fixture on paper is a must win and at home (my boys, Leicester).

I ask because I can get to (and have thought about) a similar front to yours, for reasons similar to those you’ve provided, but I’m struggling to dump Kevin.