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Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

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Pulpy
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Pulpy » 09 Nov 2019, 21:03

I was wrong to bench Soyuncu these last two weeks if that helps! :oops: Can I have his points now please? :P

(Just trying to lighten the mood before this develops into a full blown mod has to separate out onto a different thread type thing!)
Last edited by Pulpy on 09 Nov 2019, 21:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 » 09 Nov 2019, 21:03

math! wrote:
09 Nov 2019, 20:57
Finisher1 wrote:
09 Nov 2019, 20:05
Pirlo's Beard wrote:
09 Nov 2019, 20:00

They all were good options and they all scored well except Kane (and Martial is yet to play). What's your point really?
Kane was never a good option this week.
Okey dokey.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by math! » 09 Nov 2019, 21:06

A team in turmoil, struggling to score goals, versus a team that has one of the best defences in the league. He was never a good option. Not when you have Vardy v Arsenal or Abraham v CPA.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 » 09 Nov 2019, 21:12

I think Spurs will confidently finish above Sheffield United this season. If you disagree then you disagree, it's not a big deal.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by math! » 09 Nov 2019, 23:07

That has nothing to do with what I said. Spurs haven't scored more than 1 goal in the league since September and that was against a woeful Southampton. Meanwhile Sheffield United have the second lowest GA of 9. The lowest is 8. Captaining a Spurs player today would have been a big punt. If any Spurs player were to be captained it would be Son since he is more natural at dropping into space away from the CBs and making runs into shooting positions.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 » 10 Nov 2019, 07:04

I think Spurs will improve their scoring rate and Sheffield United won't keep up conceding so few goals. If you think that the outcomes of a few recent gameweeks can reasonably predict what will happen in the future you will never consistently finish in top 10k.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Oxford NZ » 10 Nov 2019, 07:27

Thank you Finisher1 for your comments.
There will always be a case where it is best to be first to be on a player ( or club) that will perform well before the masses. Spurs are not there just yet imo. I will be playing Son in my team because he will be a bit of differential. I will play Lundstram because he is great value for the points I will receive for that value.
Kane and most of the other Spurs players as yet do not offer value in haul points or budget points so most of the consistent 10k managers will not touch them yet .
I applaud your ignoring the few recent GW's of form and look forward to seeing your squad full of Spurs assets. I think this must be a case of put up or shut up.
I am not a consistent 10k manager by any means and have only been playing for three seasons but my squad is available for all to see, both my good moves and my train wrecks.
The blades will have their bad GW's but they have good players and a system that should see them through to the end of the season with respect.
Good luck for the season and I hope you enjoy the FISO forum.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman » 10 Nov 2019, 09:55

2 clean sheets from 5 away from home (Watford and Everton where they massively rode their luck if memory serves me right)?

Tottenham in turmoil have still managed 11 goals in their last 4 games (including away games at Goodison and Anfield).

As finisher says, you expect them having to start the rub of the green a bit more... and why not a home game against Sheff United? Won 3, Drawn 1 Lost 1 in their 5 home games (scoring 10 in the process) prior to yesterday.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman » 10 Nov 2019, 09:55

(I’m saying all this as a Kane captainer 😔)

Oh... and if I’d owned Vardy, I’d have captained him instead of Kane).

Annoyingly, 2 weeks ago I did Aguero -> Kane (as a toss up between Kane and Vardy I chose bloody Kane!!!! Effectively 28 points lost in 2 game weeks).

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by SirMattBugsby » 10 Nov 2019, 12:30

Zimmerman wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 09:55
2 clean sheets from 5 away from home (Watford and Everton where they massively rode their luck if memory serves me right)?

Tottenham in turmoil have still managed 11 goals in their last 4 games (including away games at Goodison and Anfield).

As finisher says, you expect them having to start the rub of the green a bit more... and why not a home game against Sheff United? Won 3, Drawn 1 Lost 1 in their 5 home games (scoring 10 in the process) prior to yesterday.
The difference between Vardy and Kane lies in the way their team is performing. Spurs attack is functioning quite well, but getting very limited opportunities thanks to the unstable defence and midfield. The system, tactics, personnel.. everything is chop-and-change from game to game in these areas.

But yes, it's falling into place gradually and Lo Celso could be the final piece in the jigsaw. I still don't think Spurs will put up big attacking scores other than Son. And they will have problems against well-oiled units like Brighton, SHU (and in the next 5, mun, Burnley and wolves). Next 2 are good though..

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 10 Nov 2019, 13:58

Apparently Spurs are after Pukki in Jan to get them the goals to keep up with MU and avoid a relegation dog fight.....😉

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by SirMattBugsby » 10 Nov 2019, 14:06

blahblah wrote:Apparently Spurs are after Pukki in Jan to get them the goals to keep up with MU and avoid a relegation dog fight.....Image
Hmm in that case we'll get Son. Imagine the shirt sales Image

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 10 Nov 2019, 15:15

SirMattBugsby wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 12:30
Zimmerman wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 09:55
2 clean sheets from 5 away from home (Watford and Everton where they massively rode their luck if memory serves me right)?

Tottenham in turmoil have still managed 11 goals in their last 4 games (including away games at Goodison and Anfield).

As finisher says, you expect them having to start the rub of the green a bit more... and why not a home game against Sheff United? Won 3, Drawn 1 Lost 1 in their 5 home games (scoring 10 in the process) prior to yesterday.
The difference between Vardy and Kane lies in the way their team is performing. Spurs attack is functioning quite well, but getting very limited opportunities thanks to the unstable defence and midfield. The system, tactics, personnel.. everything is chop-and-change from game to game in these areas.

But yes, it's falling into place gradually and Lo Celso could be the final piece in the jigsaw. I still don't think Spurs will put up big attacking scores other than Son. And they will have problems against well-oiled units like Brighton, SHU (and in the next 5, mun, Burnley and wolves). Next 2 are good though..
In FPL terms they are quite different prospects due to their prices but in terms of performance they are quite equal. Kane and Vardy are on almost the exact same xG (both including and excluding pens) and both have an overall xG of about 5 goals - yet Kane has 6 and Vardy 11.

How much of that is down to confidence, style of play etc is something that has to be judged, but on a pure STC stats based outlook its arguable that Abraham is the first choice striker to be on (assuming we can accept his cut minutes in exchange for the cut price), and then FPL squad rules decide which of Vardy/Kane/Midfielders you go for in addition to him.

I don't know what Vardy's conversion rate is now, but it massively feels like one of those hot-hand runs which has really benefited those who got on early. It's been an absolutely brilliant decision for those managers, but players like Salah, Sterling, even Wood have all out performed Vardy on a stats basis but come up (significantly) shorter. For those who missed the run already, it's hard to know whether to jump on to Vardy or not.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 10 Nov 2019, 18:33

Yes exactly. Vardy always outscores the XG but his conversion rate this season is beyond anyone, ever. We've seen this before with players. It won't continue based on history but the problem is from an FPL point ogf view, it's easy money to be made and the fixtures are such that he's at worst going to be a solid pick.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by FranckKessie » 10 Nov 2019, 20:06

Sutter Kane wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 18:33
Yes exactly. Vardy always outscores the XG but his conversion rate this season is beyond anyone, ever. We've seen this before with players. It won't continue based on history but the problem is from an FPL point ogf view, it's easy money to be made and the fixtures are such that he's at worst going to be a solid pick.
Unlikely, but do able for him to be worth shite! He had a lovely stretch of 1st half of last season where his returns were very poor compared to his price. At that time he didn't have a team that plays very nice football though!

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta » 10 Nov 2019, 20:33

As well as the team form charts, I also do the same thing for midfielders and attackers. When I posted them before there didn't seem to be much interest but I thought the Vardy one is informative, given the ongoing discussion. Here they are sorted by total xG in the last 10 gameweeks. (I don't collect the data for every players so if someone is missing, it could be because they are not on my shortlist.)

My thoughts:
- Pulisic has great stats as well as actual output
- Are we all overlooking Rashford?
- Wood, Maupay and Wesley also looking very strong options
- Other players have overperformed like Vardy for short periods but no-one keeps it up for long. And yes, Vardy was underperforming xG for the middle half of last season.
- I'm wondering if Jota is due some actual goals - maybe a potential Pukki replacement instead of Jimenez?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Tall Paul » 10 Nov 2019, 20:55

Pukki graph is amazing.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta » 10 Nov 2019, 21:00

Tall Paul wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 20:55
Pukki graph is amazing.
Yes a rollercoaster on the downward plunge, although actually quite similar to Wood's :lol: a couple of years ago (when he came back from injury and scored 4 in 3 games) . The 10 week averages don't really work so well at the start of the season for new players or for players who are out injured for a while.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta » 10 Nov 2019, 21:04

Of course, at the start of the season, there were people suggesting that Pukki was such a good finisher that he would comfortably beat xG. Just like with Vardy now.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by TheRumourMill » 10 Nov 2019, 21:13

Fascinating stuff, thanks Bobby. Would love to see the Lundstrum graph! :lol:

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson » 10 Nov 2019, 21:37

Both Mane and Vardy are question marks for me. I own them both but dumping them around GW18 looks like it could be a nice timing.

I’m interested to see if Pulisic and Haller can stabilize those xGs over the next several weeks.

Rashford’s xG is inflated by pens but he’s getting chances in open play too. He missed an open net at the back post today. It may still be the inconsistency of youth.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta » 10 Nov 2019, 21:48

TheRumourMill wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:13
Fascinating stuff, thanks Bobby. Would love to see the Lundstrum graph! :lol:
Cheers. I don't collect or even normally look at the defenders xG data. So had overlooked how good Lundstram's xG/xA stats are :o . Admitedly most of the xG came in the last two weeks. Don't think I can bench him again....

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 10 Nov 2019, 23:04

Turd Ferguson wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 21:37
Both Mane and Vardy are question marks for me. I own them both but dumping them around GW18 looks like it could be a nice timing.

I’m interested to see if Pulisic and Haller can stabilize those xGs over the next several weeks.

Rashford’s xG is inflated by pens but he’s getting chances in open play too. He missed an open net at the back post today. It may still be the inconsistency of youth.
Rashford’s next few are enough to put me off for now...but maybe as a switch in for Vardy as Man Us run around the festive period looks enticing

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by math! » 11 Nov 2019, 00:01

Would be nice to see Jimenez.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson » 11 Nov 2019, 00:10

math! wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 00:01
Would be nice to see Jimenez.
He’s in there towards the bottom right. He doesn’t stand out from the others at his price point. To be fair, he does seem to get more assists than other mid tier strikers so maybe xG alone isn’t a way to judge him.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson » 11 Nov 2019, 00:18

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
10 Nov 2019, 23:04
Rashford’s next few are enough to put me off for now...but maybe as a switch in for Vardy as Man Us run around the festive period looks enticing
Ya, I’m on martial right now but he might become Pulisic around 15 when united have spurs and city back to back. Then Vardy can become rashford when leicester have city and pool back to back in 18 & 19. We’ll have to see the relative form of these players. Everyone and their mother is bringing in Vardy though, and he’s on an unsustainable tear, so getting off him at the right time will be a good way to gain on the field.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Pirlo's Beard » 11 Nov 2019, 01:34

I'm of the opinion that the only truly sensible time to get off Vardy will be after GW38.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by FranckKessie » 11 Nov 2019, 04:45

Credits to Understat.com and OfficialFPL. GW12 Playerdata.
FPL - GW12 - PlayerData - Excel.rar
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by math! » 11 Nov 2019, 10:14

Turd Ferguson wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 00:10
math! wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 00:01
Would be nice to see Jimenez.
He’s in there towards the bottom right. He doesn’t stand out from the others at his price point. To be fair, he does seem to get more assists than other mid tier strikers so maybe xG alone isn’t a way to judge him.
I don't know how I missed that the first time. I am currently on Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez and quite like this trio for the time being. They bagged me a combined total of 29 points (41 if you count the fact that Vardy was captain) this week. Two of them are on pens and all three have good fixtures while also being in form playing in teams that are in form (although I have not watched Wolves that much). If I could have 4 strikers I'd have had Wood also.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stu255 » 11 Nov 2019, 11:55

These charts are interesting, I guess a 10 week average xG for any player should be fairly stable and their actuals should be much more volatile as the actuals are compiled of much lumpier data compared to the more granular xG. It's a bit like peanut butter.


Aguero's chart looks a bit odd? He started this season with goals in every game (scored 8 goals in the first 6 games, scoring in all 6) and then went quite, whereas his chart here suggest the opposite??

Kane has never recovered from the back of 17/18. He is not the same player as before and looks increasingly mispriced in FPL.


Also Tammy Abraham looks much more developed than Mount, we kind of think of the young Chelsea players as a group. Abraham looks like the sort of player Man Utd are desperate to bury in their big graveyard that is Old Trafford.

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