View Latest: 1 Day | FISO Injury Search

Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

A forum for comment and discussion on Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL) Teams. Post your Rate My Team (RMT) messages here!
Post Reply
User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5693
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 13 Jul 2019, 18:44

Also, surely there's bound to be a 4.5 GK pick that hits 130-140, no? I think one of Pope/Gunn could be that keeper.

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 68444
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 13 Jul 2019, 18:49

Im not really looking at GK's even after finding out about Lossl going to Everton. If needs be then I'll get cover somewhere else for no more. Fab was high up again from memory and I assume he anf his shite (no 2 😂) will be 9.5m? But Soton are tempting, more so than Burnley.

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 13 Jul 2019, 19:54

Sutter Kane wrote:
13 Jul 2019, 18:44
Also, surely there's bound to be a 4.5 GK pick that hits 130-140, no? I think one of Pope/Gunn could be that keeper.
That's always the hope, and it's always the easiest position to cut costs from. It's a good point about budget spread with the premium defenders already moving it around. I've not entertained a premium keeper at all yet this year, Heaton(/Pope) or Gunn for me, but interested in others opinions if going the premium route.

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 13 Jul 2019, 20:44

blahblah wrote:
12 Jul 2019, 22:39
And no Kane despite his price being lowered due to last season's injuries...

At 11m he is jesused in my squad.
He's been in and out of my various drafts. I do like the feeling of him in the side, but every time I look at his underlying stats I take him out and spread the cost around again, then next draft I of course put him back :D

For what it's worth, Auba is projected 207 and Kane 196, and Auba did make one of the teams so the price point isn't out of the question. It's just that Auba would always win that spot in an algorithm based on the projections, so it becomes a question of how you think Kane's season will go.

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 68444
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 13 Jul 2019, 20:47

Or Spurs vs Arsenal. There are rumours of Aub being sold as they are skint, which could make Lac rather interesting?

wizardoffire
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4930
Joined: 09 Apr 2013, 20:47
FS Record: 2013/2014 FISO Hotshots league

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by wizardoffire » 13 Jul 2019, 23:47

my initial draft was a kane auba team with a lot of mid tier midfield options and a strong defence

currently removed kane to accomodate salah and feel that this current line up is stronger

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5693
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Jul 2019, 07:21

Just counted the number of times I'd want to captain a Man City player (almost certainly) in the first half of the season: got to 4... :?

In fact I think this might be useful (if only to me 8-) ) [I will do my best to not be caught without someone who'll be heavily captained in a given GW]

GW1: Salah (Norwich H, though Spurs home to Villa)
GW2: Salah (S'ton A)
GW3: Salah (debatable with Man C at Bournemouth but Liv at home to Arsenal, Spurs home to Newcastle maybe a standout)
GW4: Sterling/Aguero (Brighton H)
GW5: Salah (Newc H)
GW6: Sterling/Aguero (Watford H though this might be tough, Arsenal home to Villa could be the rout we're looking for this gameweek)
GW7: Salah (Sheff A, Chelsea home to Brighton though)
GW8: Salah (Leicester H, Arsenal home to B'mouth and Man C home to Wolves)
GW9: Probably a Chelsea player (Newc H, Man C travel to Palace, Liv away at Man U)
GW10: Sterling/Aguero (Villa H)
GW11: Salah (Villa A, Man C home to S'ton)
GW12: Son/Kane/Pogba! (Liv vs Man C, Spurs home to Sheff, Man U home to Brighton are options)
GW13: Salah (Palace A, again could be tough so Everton home to Norwich, Man C host Chelsea)
GW14: Salah (Brighton H)
GW15: Probably a Chelsea player (Villa H, but Man C travel to Burnley)
GW16: Salah (B'mouth A)
GW17: Salah (Watford H)
GW18: Sterling/Aguero (Leicester H)
GW19: Son/Kane (Brighton H is the pick, Liv away at Leicester, Man C away at Wolves)

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5693
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Jul 2019, 07:29

Just noticed Man C play Wolves twice in the first half of the season. (ultimately useless observation of course)

User avatar
Patrician
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1233
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
Location: ...bears no responsibility for bad points forecasts
FS Record: 2nd TFFE 2008
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Patrician » 14 Jul 2019, 09:05

Stemania wrote:
12 Jul 2019, 22:35
I know. As I mentioned, they estimate him as the 7th highest scorer, only behind Salah, Sterling, Auba, Mane, Aguero, Kane. :lol:

One thing to notice is that the whole exercise provides another example of why the common "expensive players aren't worth it unless you captain them" argument can fall down in the cold light of algorythmic day. Auba and Sterling appear once each in these 'best possible' lineups, despite costing 11-12m and never being captained. :)
Hmm. Putting aside the dodgy FFS predictions, that a 2nd super premium only shows up twice in these "best possible lineups" makes a mockery of this as a methodology to construct an FPL squad. It helps find the best dead perma-captained team. Nobody plays FPL like that.

User avatar
Stemania
FISO Knight
Posts: 19491
Joined: 27 Aug 2006, 11:54
Location: On the Iron Throne of xG, the seat of The Crown Prince of the Stat Perverts. Or if not, in the STC!
FS Record: Best: TFF 321st. FPL 129th. FFS Career HoF 4th.

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania » 14 Jul 2019, 09:49

Patrician wrote:It helps find the best dead perma-captained team.
Yep. :)



User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 14 Jul 2019, 10:29

Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Jul 2019, 07:21
Just counted the number of times I'd want to captain a Man City player (almost certainly) in the first half of the season: got to 4... :?
Yeah I've been looking at that too. GWs 4 & 6 are the worry in the pre-wildcard period, but I think I'd be safe enough with KDB for GW4 and I could well have wildcarded before GW6, when the decision would need to be made again.

If ditching Sterling then you get the spurs option of Kane or Son for (C) in GW3, I was playing around with the options last night and a midfield of Salah, KDB, Son, Siggy (with plenty of backup from other players in the price range) looks pretty good to me. It does mean writing off a striker spot if not picking Kane, but I'm coming round to the idea that a 4.5 dead spot up front might be the way to go this year, given the options in midfield and the apparent lack of depth in the striker pool.

As always I'm back and forward on this but ultimately its Sterling or KBD + 2.5 upgrades, which is basically Maddison :arrow: Son/Pogba, given that I could see Son and KDB being captain material in relevant games I don't feel like its a bad way to spread funds, but it depends how KDB does. If its the FFS projection of 165 then it feels a bad choice, but if its his previous 190-200 then I think its the better call. I'm sure everyone looks at Sterling and Salah and wonders if they do need both, its the armband that makes Sterling (or any super premium) worth while on paper, but if you're not actually going to use it :? A 50% captaincy rate on Sterling would surely swing things his way with the expected extra points, but if its a 25% rate is it close enough to make him not worth while, especially if its Salah stepping in to band in the most part.

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 14 Jul 2019, 12:00

wizardoffire wrote:
13 Jul 2019, 23:47
my initial draft was a kane auba team with a lot of mid tier midfield options and a strong defence

currently removed kane to accomodate salah and feel that this current line up is stronger
There's a decent post on Reddit about Kane, Auba and Aguero. It obviously doesn't delve into the "best premium striker vs Sterling/Salah" argument though.

FranckKessie
FISOhead
Posts: 523
Joined: 21 Aug 2017, 21:34

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by FranckKessie » 14 Jul 2019, 23:25

Finally had decent time to look at a first draft. It will clearly change but I landed in a 5-4-1:
LLoris
TAA - Robertson - Digne - Walker - Coleman
Fraser - Sigurdsson - De Bruyne - Salah
Wilson
Button Hayden Greenwood Nketiah

Still lot to consider, but the first big question I have is a plan when to throw the first WC. Where do you guys stand?
Last year my draft was made in such way that I wouldn't need WC early. It went okay, but an obvious opportunity to play WC never appeared afterwards. Could it be the case again this year as LIV and MCI is expected to dominate PL again. Unlike last year though the pricing of other TopSix teams reflect the LIV,MCI domination so a cautious approach again this year may be the way forward in order to jump on what ever comes from Spurs,Che,Man Utd? Maybe WC up to GW7 to throw out Sterling who then comes in for Salah again in GW9/10?

One thing is clear from my team above. I need Sterling in for GW4-6. De Bruyne is good but no way near Sterling in terms of captaincy. Home-fixtures for either Sterling or Salah is gonna rule everything for me this year.

As my last excel spreadsheet was a big hit I will continue servicing those who find it useful. This one I've made today, so layout is what it is, to give me an overview. Compared to the last one this contains some base data on which I have done rough analysis to get an overview myself.

- CombinedData combines understat and FPL data. I had to deleted a lot of columns for it to get under 2MB.
- Points Per Game,xG and xA by Player split by B9_Home,B9_Away,T9_Home,T9_Away (Bottom9 = B9, Top9=T9)
- Based on Points Per Game from above a simple Points Projection for each round over the season.
- Q,R,S,T you can enter in other numbers than those currently and the points over the new periods will be shown. For example the combination (0,0,0,38) will give a simple Season Projection.


The points projection by round is the main feature of the spreadsheet (obvious the "raw" combined data is the gem). I had to manipulate the data a little, because the method used unadjusted is weak. The will always be players with low number of appearances performing Kyle-Walker-STYLE (3xAssist BANG!).
1920 FPLAnalysis.rar
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
nemo7x
Kevin and Perry
Posts: 21
Joined: 12 Sep 2018, 10:33

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by nemo7x » 15 Jul 2019, 04:12

This year I am not comfortable going without Sterling from GW1 and can even go with a Salah-less team.

FranckKessie
FISOhead
Posts: 523
Joined: 21 Aug 2017, 21:34

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by FranckKessie » 15 Jul 2019, 07:26

I can definitely see the arguments for including Sterling and I haven't made any final decision on that matter. His exclusion is purely based on captaincy for now. I haven't studied the cost of needing him in for GW4 in terms of transfers. So much to do...

User avatar
Ironfist
FISO Knight
Posts: 11998
Joined: 11 Jul 2009, 14:43
Location: Israel
FS Record: FPL 09/10 - 1824th
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Ironfist » 15 Jul 2019, 11:00

FranckKessie wrote:
14 Jul 2019, 23:25
Finally had decent time to look at a first draft. It will clearly change but I landed in a 5-4-1:
LLoris
TAA - Robertson - Digne - Walker - Coleman
Fraser - Sigurdsson - De Bruyne - Salah
Wilson
Button Hayden Greenwood Nketiah
This is very good.
It is hard for me to accept a 541 formation and the absence of Kane at this stage is slightly annoying, but this team looks very nice.

User avatar
raoul
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1757
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: got up to 3rd in TFF overall one Christmas about 15 years ago ... and won Football Fantastic (how I miss thee) one year. Apart from that, pants.

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by raoul » 15 Jul 2019, 12:06

Regarding the FFS projections, what are we to make of them?

The forthcoming season looks pretty similar to last season to me, in terms of there being a big 2, then a big but somewhat unpredictable 4, a chasing 2-3 and then a scrum trying to hit 45 pts. No obvious promoted team to do a Wolves.

I note some player projections mentioned that seem well down on last year's actuals, but I wonder if the team structure projections seem a touch low because projected scores overall are down, because pricing overall is higher this season?

Only 2 players have a ppm of 30 (last season scores, this season prices), and no Mid or Fwd exceeds 25. I can't see an argument for any of them to improve (OOP Zaha and Perez perhaps), and the lack of obvious bargain price players means I cannot foresee another Fraser, Jimenez or Wilson this year.

However much I look at it, the only viable plan seems to be to load up at the back with players from some of the top 8 teams, then decide whether the front 5 is a 4-1, 3-2 or a 2-3. Last year there seemed to be a lot of debate over structure. This year seems all about choosing different front 5 combos that cost around 45m, and that's about it?

User avatar
Aldershot Rejects
Dumbledore
Posts: 6809
Joined: 03 Aug 2011, 17:15
Location: Kent
FS Record: 5th Metro (2010-11); 146 - Sky (2015-16); 218 - Sky (2014-15); 636 - FPL (2017-18); last 16 Sky Cup (2018-19)

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 15 Jul 2019, 15:10

FranckKessie wrote:
14 Jul 2019, 23:25
Finally had decent time to look at a first draft. It will clearly change but I landed in a 5-4-1:
LLoris
TAA - Robertson - Digne - Walker - Coleman
Fraser - Sigurdsson - De Bruyne - Salah
Wilson
Button Hayden Greenwood Nketiah

Currently have 8+2 of these so it looks fine to me.

My one worry would be the Bournemouth attacking double-up for GW3-5 when fixtures are not great (especially if you are planning an earlish wildcard)

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5693
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 15 Jul 2019, 19:13

Looking for opinion on this one. Just read Huskerdu's RMT and am thinking:

I prefer Sterling over Aguero as a captain option and just generally tbh. However Aguero offers routes to Kane/Auba who give excellent occasional captain options themselves. Now Son can be a decent captain alternative for Spurs. But he's not exactly cheap. I think I'm leaning towards not owning Sterling and just using a Kun/Kane/Auba slot.

User avatar
Zimmerman
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 29009
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:42
Location: having a picnic at the Bear Mountain

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman » 15 Jul 2019, 19:36

Sounds great on paper... will blank returns and the odd benching for Son eventually frustrate you though?

Earmarking that slot to be shared between three of them seems a risk in itself... might work for the first 2-3 weeks; but there’s bound to be an injury or suspension or your dendonker or Jorginho punt ends up necessitating a transfer - so all of a sudden you’ve got Aubameyang v Liverpool or a 4 point hit.

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 68444
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 15 Jul 2019, 19:39

Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 19:13
Looking for opinion on this one. Just read Huskerdu's RMT and am thinking:

I prefer Sterling over Aguero as a captain option and just generally tbh. However Aguero offers routes to Kane/Auba who give excellent occasional captain options themselves. Now Son can be a decent captain alternative for Spurs. But he's not exactly cheap. I think I'm leaning towards not owning Sterling and just using a Kun/Kane/Auba slot.
Im currently sitting on

Pickford Stek 😟
Robbo, TAA, VvD, Laporte, Mendy(Zin)
KdB, Richarlison, Perez(or similar) 2x4.5
Kane, Giroud, King(or similar)

Which can swap between 523 and 532.

User avatar
blahblah
FISO Baron
Posts: 68444
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 15 Jul 2019, 19:43

Zimmerman wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 19:36
Sounds great on paper... will blank returns and the odd benching for Son eventually frustrate you though?

Earmarking that slot to be shared between three of them seems a risk in itself... might work for the first 2-3 weeks; but there’s bound to be an injury or suspension or your dendonker or Jorginho punt ends up necessitating a transfer - so all of a sudden you’ve got Aubameyang v Liverpool or a 4 point hit.
Was it last summer that you were looking at permabanding vs switching? Did you come to any conclusions?

User avatar
raoul
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1757
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
FS Record: got up to 3rd in TFF overall one Christmas about 15 years ago ... and won Football Fantastic (how I miss thee) one year. Apart from that, pants.

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by raoul » 15 Jul 2019, 19:52

Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 19:13
Looking for opinion on this one. Just read Huskerdu's RMT and am thinking:

I prefer Sterling over Aguero as a captain option and just generally tbh. However Aguero offers routes to Kane/Auba who give excellent occasional captain options themselves. Now Son can be a decent captain alternative for Spurs. But he's not exactly cheap. I think I'm leaning towards not owning Sterling and just using a Kun/Kane/Auba slot.
Have you considered a single captain slot that is generally Salah or Sterling and drops in Son as and when? Son will look cheap then :)

User avatar
Sutter Kane
Dumbledore
Posts: 5693
Joined: 05 Aug 2010, 12:13

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 15 Jul 2019, 20:00

Zimmerman wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 19:36
Sounds great on paper... will blank returns and the odd benching for Son eventually frustrate you though?

Earmarking that slot to be shared between three of them seems a risk in itself... might work for the first 2-3 weeks; but there’s bound to be an injury or suspension or your dendonker or Jorginho punt ends up necessitating a transfer - so all of a sudden you’ve got Aubameyang v Liverpool or a 4 point hit.
I understand your second point.

Your first point doesn't make sense though. Is Son that much more likely to be rested than Sterling (and in the exact fixture I'd captain)? And why would there be more likely to be blank returns from such a system? What could frustrate is making a transfer on an 11mn+ striker to captain and then seeing them benched.

And I wouldn't even have Son anyway!! lol.

User avatar
Neath boy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3613
Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:32
Location: Watching the Swans
FS Record: Egg Cup Premier league champions 2011-12 and 2012-13. Fiso H2H PremierLeague champion 2015/16. FISO Super League regular season champion 2016-17.

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Neath boy » 15 Jul 2019, 20:24

Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 19:13
Looking for opinion on this one. Just read Huskerdu's RMT and am thinking:

I prefer Sterling over Aguero as a captain option and just generally tbh. However Aguero offers routes to Kane/Auba who give excellent occasional captain options themselves. Now Son can be a decent captain alternative for Spurs. But he's not exactly cheap. I think I'm leaning towards not owning Sterling and just using a Kun/Kane/Auba slot.
It is certainly something I am considering. Pretty sure I don't need Sterling or Aguero for first 3 game weeks anyway as I wouldn't captain either before GW4.

FranckKessie
FISOhead
Posts: 523
Joined: 21 Aug 2017, 21:34

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by FranckKessie » 15 Jul 2019, 20:28

Sutter Kane wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 19:13
Looking for opinion on this one. Just read Huskerdu's RMT and am thinking:

I prefer Sterling over Aguero as a captain option and just generally tbh. However Aguero offers routes to Kane/Auba who give excellent occasional captain options themselves. Now Son can be a decent captain alternative for Spurs. But he's not exactly cheap. I think I'm leaning towards not owning Sterling and just using a Kun/Kane/Auba slot.
I dont like the amount of transfers it will cost and I am still in doubt over the main man in the strategy, Mr. Kane. I won't exclude gambling on Kane but prefer more knowledge, because the Kane of last season didn't perform at home and first good away match first come in GW8. Sterling is simply better than Aguero so should be preferred of the two, unless Aguero magically turns into a 90-min man but I see it more likely that he plays less minutes than last year. Auba is a fine option to have should one go with a top-premium spot but my guess is that he will be more of a differential this year, so currently I don't rate him a risk not to own.

I am still very early in my analysis but a switch to a 1-MID Premium and 1-FWD Premium from GW7 doesn't look farfetched, but I need to check that I don't spend too many transfers simply to chase captaincy.

User avatar
Stemania
FISO Knight
Posts: 19491
Joined: 27 Aug 2006, 11:54
Location: On the Iron Throne of xG, the seat of The Crown Prince of the Stat Perverts. Or if not, in the STC!
FS Record: Best: TFF 321st. FPL 129th. FFS Career HoF 4th.

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stemania » 15 Jul 2019, 20:31

FranckKessie wrote:
14 Jul 2019, 23:25
The points projection by round is the main feature of the spreadsheet (obvious the "raw" combined data is the gem).
Great stuff.

I was looking at potential captaincy ratios via price (so I can come up with a formula for suitable captaincy multipliers in each position, based on any given squad makeup). First step was to look at a whole set of projections for an entire season, and tally how often every price point gets the highest (and 2nd, 3rd etc) points projection for a given GW. Your projections were easily to hand in your spreadsheet (with all 38 GWs, unlike FFS's) so did them first. Thought you might like to see the histograms out of interest. :)

Image

There's a higher number of sub 7m captains than I expected (though still only 3). Some are a bit odd though, such as Deulofeu top in GW22 (away vs bou) ahead of Sterling (away vs avl). Might want to look at that week. :wink:

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 15 Jul 2019, 20:43

raoul wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 12:06
Only 2 players have a ppm of 30 (last season scores, this season prices), and no Mid or Fwd exceeds 25. I can't see an argument for any of them to improve (OOP Zaha and Perez perhaps), and the lack of obvious bargain price players means I cannot foresee another Fraser, Jimenez or Wilson this year.

However much I look at it, the only viable plan seems to be to load up at the back with players from some of the top 8 teams, then decide whether the front 5 is a 4-1, 3-2 or a 2-3. Last year there seemed to be a lot of debate over structure. This year seems all about choosing different front 5 combos that cost around 45m, and that's about it?
To be honest, I think we're lucky to have 2 players over that 30 point benchmark! It's a very arbitrary stat, but taken to mean extreme value based on last season's points it always points to premium defenders at this stage in the season. In that sense (and Robertson/TAA apart) I don't really see anything particularly different to any season in the past.

I'm sure that there will soon be competition from the 4.5-5.0 defender who gets close to 150 and soon enough most people will have at most 3 or 4 premium defenders, which will let you shift money forward and that in turn will encourage back 4's or even back 3's with 2 or 3 premium defenders. This will be further exaggerated once price rises start and people want to ride the bandwagons but have neither funds nor importantly positions open in their extreme 5 player front lines to do so.

The only exception I could see to that is the 541 formation, which as least allows you to keep positions open in the midfield, but that requires you write off two slots in your squad for non-playing subs (and risk 10 men if your only striker is injured or benched), so your defensive costs go up 1.0 anyway reducing value whilst simultaneously saddling you with just one sub (albeit a decent one in Dendoncker) for injury, benchings or occasional deliberate defensive rotation.

I still firmly believe that our overall squad shapes are still waiting on the cheap gem of a player who shows up somewhere in the 15. Maybe that's Dunk, maybe its Adams(/Ings), maybe it's someone we've yet to see... Hopefully with pre-season getting underway and transfers rolling he will reveal himself soon!

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 15 Jul 2019, 20:49

Stemania wrote:
15 Jul 2019, 20:31
First step was to look at a whole set of projections for an entire season, and tally how often every price point gets the highest (and 2nd, 3rd etc) points projection for a given GW.
So from those numbers, it should be easier to predict a captain than it appears in practice to be! The 4th place scores are interesting, but I assume the lack of representation of the 11.0+ players is because they have a scarcity and were more likely to feature in the top 1-2 places.

Would a graph of when players from the price range appeared in any of the top 4 scoring positions (i.e. an accumulation of the 4 graphs) show anything interesting? Does a hit rate (number of times a 12.0+ player makes the top 4 out of how many 12.0 players there are) just show extremely heavy bias toward Salah and Sterling?

User avatar
Mav3rick
FISO Knight
Posts: 16535
Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 20:35
FS Record: The stats are dark and full of errors.
Contact:

Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mav3rick » 15 Jul 2019, 21:16

FranckKessie wrote:
14 Jul 2019, 23:25
As my last excel spreadsheet was a big hit I will continue servicing those who find it useful. This one I've made today, so layout is what it is, to give me an overview. Compared to the last one this contains some base data on which I have done rough analysis to get an overview myself.
Brilliant work thanks FranckKessie. The captaincy option section is particularly interesting - Harry Kane the projected best striker just once all season :shock: Any idea why King was selected in GW3 while team mate Wilson appears 5 times in the first 15 GWs? How did King get a boost there?

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “FPL Team Questions (e.g. RMTs/Transfers/Captaincies)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests