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Dod's Blog

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dod
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Won't work, can't work Part IV

If GW5 had a theme tune it would be Half Man Half Biscuit's - The Light at the End of the Tunnel (Is the Light of an Oncoming Train) :(.

53 pts (-8) and a 500k drop in rank to 1.2m. When I started this experiment I knew there would be GWs like this. It is essentially a bet against a premium - in this case Salah - and since I got rid of him Salah has returned 3 consecutive double-figure hauls. I sort of got away with it in GWs 3 & 4 but there was no dodging the bullet this week as Salah had a massive 154% EO and effectively scored 18.5 pts against my team :shock:.

Of course there were other things that went against me. I captained TAA which was my plan to mitigate the Salah damage when he was the obvious best captain choice. Unfortunately this GW TAA got sick. Torres didn't play, Antonio was out injured, Jota missed a sitter, yadda yadda yadda, but this is just normal FPL stuff. It could have been worse with Benrahma rumoured to be missing but eventually starting and getting me a very welcome if somewhat flukey 10 pts.

Even the fact that with my team still in transition I only fielded 10 and got just 2 pts off the bench for Ayling - whereas popular bench fodder such as Livramento, Duffy, Tsimikas, and White all got returns - really didn't make that much difference compared to Salah hauling.

So no complaints from me. If Salah does well I won't be having a good GW. C'est la vie :roll:.

On the plus side I've been doing pretty well with my transfers recently. In GW4 I took a -8 to bring in Ronaldo (c), Jota, and Torres. As my (vc) was Antonio that GW I actually made a 23 pt profit after hits. In GW5 I took another -8 and brought in Sarr, Bamford, and Semedo for an 8 pt profit after hits. That's a pretty good rub of the green right there :D.

One mistake I now realise I have made was in assuming that by not using my wildcard to start the experiment - and choosing to take hits instead - I would be holding a 'Get Out of Jail Free' card should things go wrong. It is now obvious to me that this assumption was erroneous. I will have invested at least 20 pts in hits in order to transition to the experiment's structure, plus taken further points damage because until the structure is in place my squad is not working efficiently. If I were to use my wildcard to get back to a more normal team structure I have no hope of recouping those points. My only option is to continue with the plan and hope it comes good. In poker terms I am now 'pot committed' and have no choice but to go all-in 8-).

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by wahine »

At least you are having fun Dod :mrgreen:

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Fun?

The new season is almost upon us so this is an appropriate time to kick over the ashes of the last.

The 'Great Experiment' failed :( . Well actually it didn't so much "fail" as never get started. The mistake was in trying to transition to the system rather than use the 1st wildcard to do so. The rationale behind this - that keeping the wildcard provided a 'Get Out of Jail Free' card should things go awry - was deeply flawed :roll:. It was like thinking being sentenced to life imprisonment in Alcatraz wasn't a problem because upon entering you had cunningly secreted about your person a paperclip, a false moustache, and a sharpened spoon.

The error was compounded by a less than stellar player selection which, in a single premium system, chose to omit FPL's all-time best player during his all-time best period of form. Add to this a selection of non-nailed, injury prone, notoriously streaky players and the inevitable happened. My squad quickly assumed the appearance of a trypophobic's worst nightmare, with more red flags than the People's Republic of China. One week, despite taking a -8, I managed to get out 7 players and racked up my lowest ever net score of 14 pts :lol:.

After a mere 5 GWs I was forced to utilise my wildcard. I did try to continue the experiment, but with the pandemic now in full flow, my wildcard squad of a single super-premium and deep bench was no longer radical but instead template. It turns out that my grand plan was merely mistimed. Mistimed, ill-conceived, and appallingly executed :oops:.

Lessons were learned.

Strangely my FPL demise proved rather serendipitous. With zero chance of winning FPL last season (I do realise that the chance of my winning FPL is extremely low anyway but it's not actually zero) I wasted no more time thinking about it. Instead I concentrated on recovering my health after the accident (thankyou to those who sent kind regards :) ), and with the pandemic meaning that surgical help was not available, I did what I could myself. This meant calisthenics to increase my strength and flexibility.

Dispel yourself of any notion that my calisthenics bore any resemblance to the superbly toned athletes performing the Nakayama Planches and Human Flags so popular on YouGram and Instatube. Instead picture a particularly corpulent and ancient carp, gasping for breath and flopping around helplessly on the riverbank, after being fished from the murky depths of a stagnant reservoir in the shadow of a decommissioned nuclear power plant. Anyway it helped. That - and adjusting my diet - means I'm now 4 stone lighter and have gone from barely being able to walk 50 yards or turn over in bed to doing 100 squats as a warm-up.

I did however complete my FPL season. I didn't watch any football (apart from Spurs' matches) or spend much more than the 15 minutes a GW, which for me is the bare necessity to maintain a functioning team, but as I had committed to being in a FISO 5AS team I at least did that. In the end my OR of 57k (thanks largely to nailing my chips) massively flattered my standard of play :lol:.

So ... new season :D . This means more hypotheses I would like to test now that I have a bit more time and enthusiasm for FPL.

Good luck all and I intend to be back to post my squad and rationale behind it prior to GW1 :mrgreen: .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

so good to see you back dod!

Looking forward to your hypotheses as they are always stimulating.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by jacksosi »

dod wrote:Fun?

The new season is almost upon us so this is an appropriate time to kick over the ashes of the last.

The 'Great Experiment' failed :( . Well actually it didn't so much "fail" as never get started. The mistake was in trying to transition to the system rather than use the 1st wildcard to do so. The rationale behind this - that keeping the wildcard provided a 'Get Out of Jail Free' card should things go awry - was deeply flawed :roll:. It was like thinking being sentenced to life imprisonment in Alcatraz wasn't a problem because upon entering you had cunningly secreted about your person a paperclip, a false moustache, and a sharpened spoon.

The error was compounded by a less than stellar player selection which, in a single premium system, chose to omit FPL's all-time best player during his all-time best period of form. Add to this a selection of non-nailed, injury prone, notoriously streaky players and the inevitable happened. My squad quickly assumed the appearance of a trypophobic's worst nightmare, with more red flags than the People's Republic of China. One week, despite taking a -8, I managed to get out 7 players and racked up my lowest ever net score of 14 pts :lol:.

After a mere 5 GWs I was forced to utilise my wildcard. I did try to continue the experiment, but with the pandemic now in full flow, my wildcard squad of a single super-premium and deep bench was no longer radical but instead template. It turns out that my grand plan was merely mistimed. Mistimed, ill-conceived, and appallingly executed :oops:.

Lessons were learned.

Strangely my FPL demise proved rather serendipitous. With zero chance of winning FPL last season (I do realise that the chance of my winning FPL is extremely low anyway but it's not actually zero) I wasted no more time thinking about it. Instead I concentrated on recovering my health after the accident (thankyou to those who sent kind regards :) ), and with the pandemic meaning that surgical help was not available, I did what I could myself. This meant calisthenics to increase my strength and flexibility.

Dispel yourself of any notion that my calisthenics bore any resemblance to the superbly toned athletes performing the Nakayama Planches and Human Flags so popular on YouGram and Instatube. Instead picture a particularly corpulent and ancient carp, gasping for breath and flopping around helplessly on the riverbank, after being fished from the murky depths of a stagnant reservoir in the shadow of a decommissioned nuclear power plant. Anyway it helped. That - and adjusting my diet - means I'm now 4 stone lighter and have gone from barely being able to walk 50 yards or turn over in bed to doing 100 squats as a warm-up.

I did however complete my FPL season. I didn't watch any football (apart from Spurs' matches) or spend much more than the 15 minutes a GW, which for me is the bare necessity to maintain a functioning team, but as I had committed to being in a FISO 5AS team I at least did that. In the end my OR of 57k (thanks largely to nailing my chips) massively flattered my standard of play :lol:.

So ... new season :D . This means more hypotheses I would like to test now that I have a bit more time and enthusiasm for FPL.

Good luck all and I intend to be back to post my squad and rationale behind it prior to GW1 :mrgreen: .
Tres amusant! Image …and glad you are getting (much) better

Thankfully you did put in the FPL work as you helped us land the coveted 5AS trophy Image

Fun? Rarely
Addictive? Yes

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

dod wrote: 01 Aug 2022, 15:15 Fun?

picture a particularly corpulent and ancient carp, gasping for breath and flopping around helplessly on the riverbank, after being fished from the murky depths of a stagnant reservoir in the shadow of a decommissioned nuclear power plant.
Welcome back dod. Love this image which is probably an accurate description of my attempts to put my socks on when my shoulder was playing up recently.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

There are two kinds of FPL manager ...

1/ Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

At no point in this season will you have less information than you do now. We do not know what the preferred 1st XIs will be. We do not know what formations will be employed. We do not know how 5 subs will affect player's Xmins. We do not know if COVID will cause matches to be postponed. We do not know how referees will interpret the rules this season. We do not know who will leave or come in in the remainder of the transfer window. We do not know how the upcoming World Cup might incentivise individual players, who might either want to get into squads, or else avoid injury.

There's a **** ton we don't know. :(

So what do we know? :?

Well we do know that as the season progresses we will find out the answer to all those questions, We also know that how quickly we can adapt to new information will make or break our FPL seasons.

Back in 2019 I wrote 'Dod's Guide to Avoiding a Terrible FPL Start (Parts 1-3).' I think it's aged quite well and has turned up on various FPL forums I don't frequent (which I'm fine with btw 8-) ). You can find the original on Page 21 of this blog.

I would like to add one further recommendation to that post:

Stick to your own bloody rules!

Most of the bad things that have happened to my team at the start of recent seasons have been because I ignored rules I wrote myself :roll:. This season I'm going to try to stick to them despite what Little Dod (who sits on my left shoulder waving his little pitchfork :twisted: ) whispers into my ear. Consequently my current GW1 draft is dishwater dull but very flexible.

Meslier (WOL)

TAA (ful) Peresic (SOU) Cancelo (whu) Dias (whu) Trippier (NFO)

Salah (C) (ful) Luis Diaz (ful) Martinelli (cry)

Kane (VC) (SOU) Jesus (cry)


Ward (BRE) Andreas (LIV) Archer (bou) DaSilva (lei)

0.5 ITB



A few notes:

Meslier - I think he looked shell shocked last season and is a better GK than he showed. Leeds will be less open this season under Marsch than they were under Bielsa. Leeds also have great fixtures. The alternatives at 4.5 aren't great. Raya has competition from Strakosha, while Sanchez has a 6pt ceiling. Going up to 5.0 doesn't offer much. Ramsdale is the best option but blocks an Arsenal spot. Ward at 4.0 may be a playing option so automatically gets selected.

Dias - Just a 6.0 placeholder really :|. I'd rather have Laporte and much rather have a Chelsea wing back but there is too much uncertainty there. Dias is a safe haven.

Trippier - Two great fixtures to start and possible points at both ends of the pitch. Lots of options at the 5.0 price point such as Doherty and Zinchenko. He rotates well with Andreas if I don't move him on.

Jesus and Martinelli - I really didn't want to go with the crowd but these two have forced their way into my squad. The preseason form has been spectacular, and while I don't give that much credence against an undercooked Chelsea and Sevilla, the fixtures are just too tempting. Once those turn however I'm dumping them quicker than a supermodel who's just found out her octogenarian billionaire boyfriend has just gone bankrupt :evil:.

Perisic - My only pick that "breaks" my rules. Also the first player on my team sheet. I may be wearing my lilywhite-tinted glasses here but it wouldn't shock me that much if he ends up as the highest scoring defender in FPL. It also wouldn't shock me if his leg falls off halfway through his first game :lol: .

Kane - There is probably not a player in the Premier League who has such a huge drop off in performance when unfit or unmotivated. Kane looks like he is at 100% in preseason. Is Haaland better? Maybe. Might I switch in GW2? Maybe. I haven't booked in a transfer though. Whichever one is in my team I'm happy, which is why the 11.5 forward spot is very attractive this season.

0.5 ITB - I always try to start the season with 0.5 ITB. It's the most important 0.5m in my squad because it means I can still get players who rise in price or if one of my players should fall. Kane could fall or Haaland rise in GW2. What do you do if you are waiting on some yellow flags, transfer incomings, or team news? I know what I'm doing. Waiting for the information because I have 0.5 ITB :D .

Mostly though my squad is based on choosing the price points where there are the most attractive options. The 5.0 defenders. The 6.0-6.5 and 8.0 midfielders. The 11.5 forwards. Not maxing out on any team (except Liverpool of course :roll:) so that I'm not cockblocking the bandwagon. It's not about starting with the perfect team. It's about being able to get to it as quickly as possible.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

Last sentence is spot on :)

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Mav3rick »

dod wrote: 02 Aug 2022, 21:43 It's not about starting with the perfect team. It's about being able to get to it as quickly as possible.
What a great quote, really sums up GW1 to me :P

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by jacksosi »

Yes, that is a great statement

Don’t you think Mendy is worth the extra 0.5?
Even though CHE seem off currently, it seems too cheap.

Talk to me about Perisic, why so keen on him and what about concerns about him being hooked pre 60 which I have seen mentioned a bit?

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

jacksosi wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 11:58 Yes, that is a great statement Image

Don’t you think Mendy is worth the extra 0.5?
Even though CHE seem off currently, it seems too cheap.

Talk to me about Perisic, why so keen on him and what about concerns about him being hooked pre 60 which I have seen mentioned a bit?
I'm not tempted by Mendy. He doesn't get save points and got less bonus (3pts) than any other 1st choice GK last season.

Perisic is the most attacking wing back the Premier League has ever seen. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he scores double figures for goals this season. Conte's teams are all about the wing backs. Last season Spurs' wing backs were poor except for a brief period when Doherty was fit. Will he get dragged off early or rotated with Sessegnon? Probably, but he's very fit for his age and will likely get 60 minutes most of the time. He'll probably get subbed in every game but that will mean he locks in a CS more often. I expect him to start all the league games at least until the Champion's League kicks off.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Good stuff, especially the last sentence. It is so tempting to try and get to the 'perfect' side in GW1 - which doesn't exist and is probably impossible to predict.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:17 Good stuff, especially the last sentence. It is so tempting to try and get to the 'perfect' side in GW1 - which doesn't exist and is probably impossible to predict.
It's on my RMT 👏👏👏👏

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

blahblah wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:20
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:17 Good stuff, especially the last sentence. It is so tempting to try and get to the 'perfect' side in GW1 - which doesn't exist and is probably impossible to predict.
It's on my RMT 👏👏👏👏
Well, if you post enough different teams, one of them is bound to be good ;)

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by SUZYKINS »

blahblah wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:20
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:17 Good stuff, especially the last sentence. It is so tempting to try and get to the 'perfect' side in GW1 - which doesn't exist and is probably impossible to predict.
It's on my RMT 👏👏👏👏
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WC Wk 2 :wink:

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

SUZYKINS wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:54
blahblah wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:20
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:17 Good stuff, especially the last sentence. It is so tempting to try and get to the 'perfect' side in GW1 - which doesn't exist and is probably impossible to predict.
It's on my RMT 👏👏👏👏
AKA the Mayfly :lol: :lol: :lol:
WC Wk 2 :wink:
Yep, turbo boost and maybe a WC to follow 🕺🕺🕺🕺🕺🕺

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:33
blahblah wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:20
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 13:17 Good stuff, especially the last sentence. It is so tempting to try and get to the 'perfect' side in GW1 - which doesn't exist and is probably impossible to predict.
It's on my RMT 👏👏👏👏
Well, if you post enough different teams, one of them is bound to be good ;)
I'm sorted now, and it didn't go through too many iterations 👏👏👏

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Little Dod's :twisted: GW1 squad.

Little Dod has been whispering his poison in my ear again :( . He reckons my GW1 squad is duller than James Cleverly wearing a beige dunce cap and reading 'How to Fill Out Forms for Dummies.' He keeps jumping up and down on my left shoulder flicking his forked tail and poking me with his pitchfork. I wish Good Dod was around to tell him to be quiet but nobody's seen Good Dod since he went to Little Dod's barbecue. Just before Little Dod gained all that weight.

Any way this is Little Dod's proposed Squad:

Meslier (WOL)

Perisic (SOU) Doherty (SOU) Robertson (ful) TAA (ful) Cancelo (whu)

Salah (C) (ful) Aaronson (WOL) Martinelli (cry)

Kane (VC) (SOU) Jesus (cry)


Ward (BRE) Alvarez (whu) Andreas (LIV) Dasilva (lei)

0.0 ITB


I'm now in two minds :?. Gone are Trippier, Dias, Luis Diaz, & Archer while in come Doherty, Robertson, Aaronson, and Alvarez. It's a very different squad.

I really like the Doherty pick ... if he plays. Personally I think he'll start vs SOU but Emerson will play in GW2 at che. That's fine if Alvarez gets on the pitch for some minutes vs BOU but not so good if he doesn't.

Robertson is obviously an upgrade over Dias who I was never that keen on.

The big downgrade is losing Luis Diaz and with him that enticing 8.0 midfielder spot. The thing is will I actually be able to use that spot if Diaz doesn't work out? It would mean going without a 3rd LIV player and all the options have downsides of one sort or another. Rotation at MCI & disruption at CHE & LEI. I'm not sure I want a 3rd ARS player as I'm not convinced their preseason form is as solid as it appears, and while I don't think Richarlison will overly impact Kulu's minutes we are reportedly in the market for Zaniolo and that certainly would.

The other problem is I lose my 0.5 ITB that I like so much. I'm not prepared to risk the double 4.0 GKs at LEI and the only other option would be to downgrade Aaronson to Bailey which looks like a bit of a trap to me. Bailey has 2 good fixtures and if he doesn't return in those will almost certainly start shedding value at at a rate of knots. Aaronson is a Marsch favourite and LEE have a long run of decent fixtures that means, barring injury, I can keep him until I wildcard even if that is in GW16.

Little Dod's squad is definitely more FUN to play. It has a much higher ceiling but also a much lower floor. If I was purely playing for a high OR I would go with my original squad but, as anyone who has read this blog for a while now knows, OR isn't my thing :roll:.

The question is which approach maximises my chance of winning FPL this season? What is the meta? How much is it worth risking a terrible start in order to get a very good one?

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

That side is remarkably similar to mine. Probably means your original squad is better ;)

Or course there are individual picks one could query but in terms of your questions - It's often said that you can't win FPL in GW1 but you can lose it. I'm not convinced that is completely true - of course you can't win it in GW1, but a very good start gives you a very good base to build from. A terrible start might make it harder (and constantly playing catch-up is hard-work) but even overall winners have some bad weeks.

Having said that I am not sure this side does have a lower floor - your starting 11 is pretty much made up with proven FPL players and the stats suggest that every £m spent on defence is likely to yield more than spending that money on midfield or attack. Doherty and Perisic in particular have enormous ceilings allied to the fact that Spurs now have one of the better defences. Yes minutes may be an issue but there are plenty of hop-off possibilities. Likewise you might be missing an £8m midfielder and one or two of them might score big but they are unlikely to all do that and it is a bit of a lottery as to whether you are on the correct one.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 04 Aug 2022, 00:29 That side is remarkably similar to mine. Probably means your original squad is better ;)

Or course there are individual picks one could query but in terms of your questions - It's often said that you can't win FPL in GW1 but you can lose it. I'm not convinced that is completely true - of course you can't win it in GW1, but a very good start gives you a very good base to build from. A terrible start might make it harder (and constantly playing catch-up is hard-work) but even overall winners have some bad weeks.

Having said that I am not sure this side does have a lower floor - your starting 11 is pretty much made up with proven FPL players and the stats suggest that every £m spent on defence is likely to yield more than spending that money on midfield or attack. Doherty and Perisic in particular have enormous ceilings allied to the fact that Spurs now have one of the better defences. Yes minutes may be an issue but there are plenty of hop-off possibilities. Likewise you might be missing an £8m midfielder and one or two of them might score big but they are unlikely to all do that and it is a bit of a lottery as to whether you are on the correct one.
"It's often said that you can't win FPL in GW1 but you can lose it."

I probably thought I was being original when I wrote "1/ You can't win FPL in the first few GWs but you can certainly lose any chance of winning with a bad start." as my 1st principle in 'Dod's Guide to Avoiding a Terrible FPL Start' back in 2019 but am almost certainly mistaken :lol:.

I think there's a big difference between playing for a very good OR and playing to win FPL outright. In the early days of FPL just making good +EV (Expected Value) decisions may have been the optimum strategy to put you in a position to win. Nowadays however the standard is much higher and just making good choices might just put you in a huge herd of FPL managers who have made the same +EV choices. That is still obviously the best way to get an excellent OR. Just keep making decisions with the best EV. However in order to win FPL it may paradoxically be better to occasionally make a -EV decision and just hope to get lucky. Zig when everybody else is zagging even when you know on the balance of probabilities it is the wrong choice. If things turn out as you expect then you are out of the race but if you are wrong (in other words - 'right' :lol:) you will steal a lead in the race.

I popped over to your blog and had a butchers at your team. I like your Mitrovic pick because it is just the sort of choice where you could gain a sizeable advantage although given the fixtures the likelihood is that you won't. Not many managers will pick Mitrovic before his fixtures turn in GW8 so if he hits form early few of your rivals will gain those points. In addition most of the managers who pick Mitrovic in their GW1 squad will do so because they are not playing the fixtures and therefore aren't serious long term rivals.

It's not enough to pick differentials like Doherty because a lot of good managers will pick Doherty. Relatively few will pick Mitrovic (or in my case Alvarez). They are what would be considered by many as 'casuals picks' and therefore a high risk high reward gamble.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Ha, I'd forgotten that this statement was in your guide and I'd reread it about a month ago. As you say it has got so much harder in recent years. I've had a couple or three terrible seasons so my normal way of playing doesn't seem to have worked so this year I've determined to try and have a bit more fun. Doherty and Mitro are both fun picks, having said that both have great stats (although it is obviously difficult to know how Mitrovic's will translate to the PL). If they both come off, they give me the solid base I spoke about. If not, then the season is long and there will be opportunities to catch up ;)
Similarly, I looked at your side and saw Alvarez and was surprised, but I can see the logic there.
Anyway, I'm glad you are more healthy and I hope you have a successful season.

Luxmonk
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Luxmonk »

Glad to see you posting again - always an interesting read.

I’m intrigued re the Alvarez pick. I’ve only seen him on clips and last week’s CS and he’s obviously a very good young player but…..at 6.5m, selecting him in your gw1 squad and then hiding him on the bench seems a little odd - to me at least.
Does that mean you’ll start him in gw2 (so avoiding a planned trf), or…? Even though it must be a risk he’d get significant game time?

Wouldn’t say Watkins @7.5 (vs Bournemouth and Everton first up) plus a 5.0 mid, instead of say Martinelli, have a much higher ceiling to start?

Just curious.

itslikebrandnew
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by itslikebrandnew »

I got blinded by Alvarez after the Charity Shield and put together a team with him in it and my reasoning was not wanting deadwood 4.5s in attack.

The problem is it blocks a city slot and will he really get enough game time. In the end i got more tempted to go with Mbuemo / Awoninyi. They don't look as fancy but they should do much better due to pretty much being guaranteed starters.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Patrician »

Your blog post has been all over Twitter this Pre-Season Dod!

I'm with you on the need to find the low owned hauls but I don't think gameweek 1 is the time to do it. They should be eduacted bets based on information.

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dod
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Is Alvarez the answer?

If I were to put the above to you there would be four likely responses of which three would be correct.

1/ Yes.
2/ No.
3/ Maybe.
4/ It depends what the question is.

Obviously 1/ and 2/ are mutually exclusive and there are no options that fall outside of the set, therefore one is correct and the other is not. We just don't know which one.

3/ Is true but it is true of any question where the definitive answer is not known. Basically this response is useless to us.

4/ Looks like 3/ but it isn't. It is by definition correct in that it is true for everybody but it isn't the same for everybody.

We all understand that we are asking the above question in relation to FPL rather than who is currently the best pound for pound boxer in the world? (A. Canelo Alvarez). Julian Alvarez by contrast is definitely not the best footballer in the world. It is also highly likely that he isn't a great FPL pick if your aim for the season is to get a high OR. So why is he in my squad? :?

Firstly what is the cost of having him in relation to the squad I have chosen? He is 2.0 more expensive than the 4.5 non-playing forward he replaces so the cost depends on what I could do with that extra budget. I could for example upgrade my GK but past seasons have shown that spending budget on a premium GK rarely returns the PPM that is possible in other positions. I could turn Doherty into James and stick 0.5 ITB. The problem is I don't prefer James to Doherty if Doherty plays. I could upgrade Martinelli to Saka but I don't think that is worth 2.0. I could upgrade Aaronson to a 7.5 mid but there are none I particularly like. There are also currently no other 6.5 forwards I'm interested in.

Given all of the above Alvarez isn't really costing me much to own except maybe the transfer needed to liquidate the budget tied up in him.

So what are the benefits of owning Alvarez? Well I suspect that if he was a regular in the MCI 1st team as a 6.5 forward he would be in more FPL squads than Jesus. The problem is he is very much behind a certain Mr Haaland in the pecking order and that is not likely to change. The problem then is one of Alvarez's xMins.

Under what circumstances might Alvarez get on the pitch? To answer that one needs to know what kind of player he is. He plays mainly as a striker but is also capable of playing on the right wing where he would be competing with the likes of Mahrez for a start. He has scored 53 goals in 120 games for River Plate so obviously knows where the net is. He is a very hard worker and has been compared to the departed Jesus in this respect. He also has explosive acceleration and is a humble guy who is happy to do whatever role the coach gives him. He's also been impressive in preseason.

I think he has a lot of qualities that Pep will value and being a native Spanish speaker can't hurt either. I have no 'inside information' but looking at MCI's surprisingly small squad I think it is inevitable he will get plenty of minutes. Whether that is in the Premier League or in the cup competitions I have no idea.

Once the CL starts Haaland's minutes are likely to be managed which could see Alvarez get plenty of time coming off the bench against tired legs. He might even nail down a starting spot alongside Haaland in some role.

People who read this blog know I make no claim to being a football expert. My interest in FPL is very much on the game theory side of things so my footballing opinions should always be taken with a large grain of salt.

For my squad however Alvarez represents a very good risk to reward ratio especially given that my goal is not a high OR but rather the tiny chance of winning FPL against managers with much more 'football' knowledge than myself.

@Aldershot Rejects - Thanks mate :) .

@Luxmonk - I might not bench him in GW1. I just rather fancy Aaronson vs Wolves.

@Patrician - I've never got the hang of Twitter but I'm happy if anything I write helps people with their FPL thinking. I agree with you that GW1 isn't the time to go searching for differentials but I didn't really have anything I wanted to do with the last 2.0 of my budget so why not have fun? :mrgreen:

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dod
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

One more thing ...

I forgot to mention the best reason for picking Alvarez which is of course Haaland's injury record. If Haaland limps off at half time against WHU with an issue that keeps him out for a while, and Alvarez comes in to replace him, I'm going to look like a freaking genius :lol:.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Luxmonk »

Excellent stuff!

I wouldn’t be surprised if he was >50% ownership by November.

Good luck!

itslikebrandnew
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by itslikebrandnew »

But would he even be guaranteed to start with the way Pep plays even if Haaland got injured.

But what do i know, my risky picks are Rodrigo and McNeil :lol:

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dod
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

"Courage is knowing it might hurt and doing it anyway. Stupidity is the same."

I am contemplating the above Jeremy Goldberg quote very hard at the moment. We are two days into the season (Sunday's matches haven't even started yet) and I am contemplating playing my wildcard :shock:.

My GW1 team has performed pretty much the same as everybody else's which is a bit meh so far. I was right about Conte's wing backs being essential but totally wrong regarding which ones would start :lol:. Apparently that information was all over that newfangled Twitter thing but wasn't mentioned at all in any of the gazettes and almanacs I subscribe to :( .

There's nothing really wrong with my squad :|. The issue I have is there is an opportunity to zig when everyone else is zagging and it is extremely tempting to take it.

I will decide after watching today's matches.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

dod wrote: 05 Aug 2022, 19:05 One more thing ...

I forgot to mention the best reason for picking Alvarez which is of course Haaland's injury record. If Haaland limps off at half time against WHU with an issue that keeps him out for a while, and Alvarez comes in to replace him, I'm going to look like a freaking genius :lol:.
Exactly, and Alvarez can, and will, play wide as well.

Like Jesus and Nunes he is definitely under-priced 👏👏👏👏

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