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Fuzzy Warbles

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 04 Jan 2019, 23:02

GW21 review

61 points. I finally broke my run of (5!) red arrows with a little green, and rank is back inside 30,000.

This week’s transfers are made already and are as previously anticipated, i.e. Aubameyang + Richarlison :arrow: Kamara + Salah. That leaves me 0.5m banked, to turn Holebas into Alexander-Arnold in a couple of weeks time.

For GW22 (captaincy and bench to be confirmed), I currently look like this:
Fabianski
Robertson, Digne, Shaw, Holebas
Salah (v), Hazard (c), Pogba, Anderson
Kane, Rashford
(Button, Kamara, Doherty, Hogg)

I am happy to continue riding with Anderson despite West Ham's fixtures taking a bit of a turn and, whilst Harry isn't lighting it up, it is this impending run of fixtures that I got him for.

Notwithstanding other developments or a change of heart, my current sketchy transfer plan is:
GW23: Fabianski :arrow: Patricio
GW24: Holebas :arrow: TAA
GW25: Digne :arrow: AWB
GW27: Shaw :arrow: Pereira

Fabianski to Patricio is the one I am least committed to, but as it’s the GW23 transfer its stops being “optional” in 2 weeks time. Given transfer windows, cups, etc, there’s a reasonable chance I won’t go ahead with that transfer.

If Chelsea reach the Carabao Cup final there’s a reasonable chance that I will want to turn Hazard into Aubameyang for GW26, when Chelsea are away at Man City. If they don’t, I am more likely to turn Harry Kane into Aubameyang for GW27 (possibly for GW26).

In fact writing it out like that, I think Fabianski stays! Anyway, that’s the current thinking.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 14 Jan 2019, 11:21

GW22 review

83 points all out. Rank is back into around 11,000 but with no Man City or Wolves representation in the Monday night fixture I will slip – hopefully staying top 20,000.

I have 3 possible transfer scenarios this week and, given the unholy rush by the masses to get TAA in, I will need to make that call in the next 24 hours.

a) Holebas :arrow: TAA. I wanted to save this one until next gameweek but, as above, I have the 0.5m I need and I can’t afford a rise on TAA if I want this to be a single transfer manoeuvre. Holebas at home to Burnley is potentially tasty, but TAA at home to Palace is also handy and I know who I want over the longer term.

b) Kane :arrow: Somebody (probably Kun, but bringing Aubameyang back is not out of the question). The Kane injury cloud is a ball ache, and we won’t know any more by the time option a) expires. Hmmph.

c) Roll the transfer. At this stage I have Digne first on my bench for GW23 so, irrespective of Kane’s status, I am reasonably well placed. It will feel a little weird parking Harry’s 12.6m butt on the pine, especially if it turns out I need to shift him out the week after, but it still could be the right decision.

I don’t have an overly long shopping list of transfers I want to make over the coming gameweeks – notwithstanding any still-to-be-known reschedules and their impact – so rolling the transfer doesn’t feel as worthy as it might in other weeks. Put it this way, if Kane is fit or only misses one week, option a) brings forward my GW24 transfer and (all else being equal) I roll a free into GW25.

I am probably favouring a) at the moment, however that just might be my slightly irrational way of dealing with my indecision – i.e. don’t overthink it, make the early transfer, and then spend your time thinking about more important things for the rest of the week (or until one hour before deadline :roll: ).

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 14 Jan 2019, 22:19

Nice score
Sadly I’m with you about Kane. I’ve made my transfer and I can’t spot anyone who is 4 points better than my bench fodder though so will probably have to bench

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 15 Jan 2019, 02:58

And pulled the trigger on a).

The Aguero cameo helped make up my mind. I am guessing that takes Kun off the table as a POD for quite a few (including you SP!).

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 24 Jan 2019, 10:03

GW23 review

58 points. Rank slipped a bit, but still inside top 20,000.

I went the a) transfer path last week, the night before the TAA injury news broke, so that was disappointing. As was only getting 10 on the park. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but a rolled transfer would also be nice to have right now.

I won’t do anything this week until close to the deadline. Possible options are Kane :arrow: Auba or, if Man City get a DGW25, use 2 transfers to trade Kane down to Jiminez and invest the funds by turning Hogg into Sane. I am happier with that spread of funds – I am running with a dead spot in midfield AND a dead spot up forward at the moment, and it feels dangerous (particularly after a week in defence like the one just gone!). I also expect to be zeroing in on Son when he returns, and I want to be able to accommodate that at that time.

Anyways, for now I’m not going to overthink it, and will wait until after the weekend to give it some proper thought.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 28 Jan 2019, 11:12

Pre-GW24 head scratching

So the MCY/EVE DGW25 is on, and I am really not very well placed to capitalise, as I have no Man City assets at the moment and I already have both Digne and Hazard with BGW27 that I will need to manage.

Current squad is -
Fabianski, Button
Robertson, TAA, Digne, Doherty, Shaw
Salah, Hazard, Pogba, Anderson, Hogg
Kane, Rashford, Kamara

Aside from the rearranged fixtures in GWs 25 and 27, the fact that I will have 6 players in the Man United-Liverpool clash in GW27, and the spectre of BGWs 31 and 33, are also at the back of my mind.

For now, I am only contemplating 1 Man City attacker for the DGW, and it will be either Sane (who I want longer term) or Aguero (who I don't).

2 alternative plans of attack would be -
A) GW24: Kane, Hogg :arrow: Jimenez, Sane | GW25: hold | GW26: Hazard, Kamara :arrow: Westwood, Aubameyang | GW27: Digne :arrow: Pereira.
B) GW24: Kane :arrow: Aguero | GW25: hold | GW26: Hazard, Aguero :arrow: Son, Aubameyang | GW27: Digne :arrow: Pereira (and GW28: Anderson :arrow: Sane), with about 0.5m cushion.

At the end of it all, under A), I finish up with Anderson and Jimenez (as 1st bench), and I upgrade Hogg to Westwood. Under B) I finish up with Son and Kamara (buried deep on my bench) and loose change. GW28 may actually be a bad time to lose Anderson, as West Ham's run from GWs 29 to 32 is pretty sweet.

A) costs me one 4 point hit, but B) "pre-plans" the GW28 transfer.

The differences between the 2 teams (injuries and other absences notwithstanding) through the journey are:
GW24: A) Sane vs B) Aguero (new)
GW25: A) Sane vs B) Aguero (ARS, eve)
GW26: A) Sane (CHE) vs B) Son (LEI)
GW27: A) Jimenez (bou) vs B) Son (bur)
GW28: A) Jimenez (hud) vs B) Son (che)

I think B) edges it (presuming Son gets his spark back by GW26), but it's close. A day to decide...

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 28 Jan 2019, 16:44

I am not sure there’s much difference between the two options. I would also opt for B, Son v Burnley standing out as an opportunity. The benefit is reversed the following week though, where Jimenez v Huddersfield looks enticing
Bottom line is both are defendable

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 02 Feb 2019, 02:58

GW24 review

Rubbish. 36 points. Falls out of top 20,000.

I went the B) path last week, and once again it feels that I copped the rough end of a 50/50 decision, albeit more through missing out on Jimenez than on the Sane vs Aguero call. I can’t assess it on the basis of 1 gameweek, but right now I know which of the 2 paths I would be happier to have taken.

This week I have all the same flag issues as everybody else, which puts a bullet in my preliminary plan of rolling a transfer through this week.

With Kamara and Alexander-Arnold as guaranteed 0’s, and Hogg and Digne likely to contribute naff-all, I have brought forward the Digne ejection, and AWB returns after a 15 week absence from my team. If it becomes clear that Pogba will miss, I expect I will also bring Sane in (who I was looking to bring in after GW27 anyhow).

I still have the same GW26 transfers in mind (i.e. Auba and Son coming in, assuming the lingering Son fatigue concerns subside), so if Sane comes in this week, I will have a transfer and some budget to turn one of Kamara or Hogg into another warm body in GW27 to cover.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 08 Feb 2019, 07:10

GW25 review

98 points, and a nice bounce back to be well inside 20,000 again.

My moan last week about 50/50 decisions now seems to be in quite poor taste, given the stunning Aguero v Sane differential this week. I was disproportionately fortunate.

Like many, I have already brought Son in this week, at the expense of Hazard. I contemplated Aguero to Aubameyang as well, for a hit, but i) I’m not convinced its worth it, ii) there’s no reason I can’t do that next gameweek, with the benefit of more information on upcoming blanks, and iii) I have put a little more thought into how I might handle the stretch from GW28.

This week looks like –
Fabianski
Robertson, Doherty, Shaw, Wan-Bissaka, (TAA)
Salah (c), Son, Pogba, Anderson, (Hogg)
Aguero (v), Rashford, (Kamara)

I have not ruled out Aguero :arrow: Auba in GW27 (Auba does seem to be the standout captain).

However, as mentioned on Ruth’s thread, I am also weighing up Kamara, Shaw :arrow: Vardy, Yedlin (probably. Unfortunately I can’t quite stretch to Lascelles).

That could then allow me to bench Aguero in GW27, keeping for WHU, bou, WAT in the following gameweeks (with possibly only the Schalke game on March 12 the worry in terms of gametime).

For Luke Shaw, GWs 27, 30 and 31 are all a bit dodgy, and Newcastle’s run is not tough. But it is Newcastle. :|

Anyways, plenty of time to decide, and fixturing twists to be revealed.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 13 Feb 2019, 09:08

GW26 review

79 points, and now back inside the top 10,000 for the first time since GW17.

Last week’s transfer (Hazard :arrow: Son) required next to no thought at all. This week’s transfer(s) is anything but obvious.

Looking all the way out to GW31, I have 5 outfielders and a GK in place already, and with all chips in hand, all options for chip play remain open.

FAC5 will change the outlook and will shape my transfer strategy. As things stand right now, Aguero :arrow: Aubameyang or Kamara :arrow: Jimenez or Kamara :arrow: Vardy (funded by downgrading Luke Shaw) have all flitted through my brain at some stage as being possible GW27 transfers. The Vardy pantomime on the weekend wasn’t encouraging to see though!

I have a lot of value tied up in Doherty, Pogba, Rashford and Robertson, but wouldn’t hesitate to lose one of them as we get close to GW31 (more likely Doherty or Rashford, and not Robbo if fit).

Anyways, I am not going waste time on the what ifs for now. In fact it provides an opportunity for a short “FPL cleansing break”. I will check back in ahead of the GW27 deadline with transfer/strategy thoughts.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 21 Feb 2019, 01:56

GW27 pre-preview

So, much more is known about GW31, yet I am still quite undecided. :|

With Fabianski plus 5 outfielders playing in GW31 I intend to build slowly to an acceptable GW31 team (ie no chip play in or before 31).

Aguero is my irritant. I either keep through to GW31 and make the Kamara to Vardy move this week, or I transfer Kun to Auba and subsequently to Higuain. (Part of my reservation about the first path is that I consider Son to be a somewhat underwhelming choice as captain this week).

I’ll wait for tomorrow’s EL match to decide (not that it will necessarily help my decision!)

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 22 Feb 2019, 06:38

GW27 Preview

OK, I am resolved to a course of action, and it is neither of those I was chewing on earlier in the week.

A hit to bring in Vardy doesn't feel right. Losing Kun, in the form he is in, doesn't feel right. Bringing in Auba as a Kun replacement, after he got 90 minutes last night and Arsenal have another 3 games in 7 days to come, culminating in the NLD, feels like a recipe for rotation.

So it's Kamara to Arnie (who comes into my squad for the 4th time this season :shock: ). I was planning to get him back before GW31, so it's not a huge deviation from plan. It's hardly a "safe" transfer, but there is no hit involved, rotation / shared minutes at that price won't hurt as badly as if it was Auba, and there is undeniable appeal in a home fixture against Fulham. (Not so much in the GW28 fixture, but no plan is perfect!)

So this week I become:

Fabianski, (Button)
Robertson, TAA, Doherty, AWB, (Shaw)
Son (c), Salah, Pogba, Anderson, (Hogg)
Rashford, Arnautovic, (Aguero)

, with a sketchy transfer plan of GW28: Shaw :arrow: Yedlin; GW29: Son :arrow: Hazard; GW31: Aguero, AWB :arrow: Higuain, Azpilicueta (and just 0.1m buffer for price movement).

That would get me 11 on-field for GW31 (Pogba, Rashford and Doherty benched), in readiness for a possible FH in GW32. (I know full well that plan will change a number of times between now and then, but it helps to see a possible, reasonable way forward.)

I do expect to lose a little ground this week, unless West Ham light it up, but I am OK with that.

(EDIT: Its way out in future and has 100 embedded “what if’s”, so almost not worth including here, but Luiz is an alternative to Dave in GW31, which would also leave spare change to add Hogg :arrow: Brooks to Arnie :arrow: Wilson in GW33).

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 25 Feb 2019, 09:57

GW27 review

Score = Douglas Adams. Rank = barely shifted, and still sitting in the 5,000 - 10,000 bracket. Which I take as a small win this week.

I have very little to report in terms of advancing my strategy or transfer plans, and I think it is a time to maintain flexibility on both.

Despite the Rashford and AWB injury setbacks, I plan to roll my transfer this week. Is Yedlin (H to Burnley) a better chance of a cleansheet than Shaw (A to Palace) - probably. Is it overwhelmingly the case AND am I locked on the Son to Hazard transfer for GW29 - not really.

Rashford and AWB will rest on my bench, and if I cop an unexpected injury or rotation elsewhere then Hogg's 2 pointer can sub in.

So, not much to see here. :|

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 01 Mar 2019, 11:01

GW28 review

64 points this week, which was enough to keep me in the 5,000 – 10,000 range.

I rolled last week’s transfer as predicted, despite the very strong urge to shift Rashford out.

My patience with Alexander-Arnold was repaid this week. Hopefully my patience with Rashford will also be repaid in weeks to come although, even if fit, I am now a tad concerned about Lukaku eating into his goal scoring opportunities.

This week’s plan was always to turn Son into Hazard, via a Luke Shaw downgrade, and that is the way I will go. 22 points from his last 4 has been a really good return from Shaw (especially when 3 were away and 1 was against Liverpool), but you can’t keep everybody, and his 9th yellow card sealed it for me. It’s pointless holding him for a double in GW32 if he’s a fair sized chance to miss at least 1 of them due to suspension.

That means I will line up for this weekend as –

Fabianski, (Button)
Doherty, Robertson, Alexander-Arnold, (Lejeune, Wan-Bissaka)
Salah, Hazard, Pogba, Anderson, (Hogg)
Aguero, Rashford, Arnautovic

As appealing as Pogba is, my captain will be Aguero. I switched to Salah at the last minute last week, and regretted it. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

I really want to roll next week’s transfer to carry one into GW31. Arnautovic starting and playing most of the game this weekend would be a big help.

I am still not fully decided on my GW31/32 strategy. At this stage I intend to bench Rashford, Pogba and Doherty in GW31, but whether I will FH in GW32, or make a couple of transfers between GWs 31 and 32 so that I can play my TC in GW32, I am still unsure. I am now up to 9 starters for GW31 (in a 1/3/4/1 formation), and I don’t think I have compromised my team too badly in the process, so am still quite happy to sit astride that fence for a little longer.

The crux of the decision will be Aguero (and the form of Vardy and Chelsea over the next 2 weeks).

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 07 Mar 2019, 08:08

GW29 review

Just 36 points this week, which was pretty underwhelming, but I managed to cling on to my top 10,000 ranking.

Everything I said last week, about not compromising my team as I have gradually worked towards GW31 was proven to be a lie, as taking Arnautovic ahead of Jimenez at GW27 (who had bou-hud-CAR on the slate) continues to haunt me. It will take something stupendous from Arnie this week to turn that back into a breakeven, but then at this stage I would just accept him making the starting XI. :oops:

Anyhoo, this is about looking forwards not backwards, and I will roll this week’s transfer. Next week will probably be a double transfer, with Aguero and Wan-Bissaka making way for Higuain and Azpilicueta. I have 0.1m buffer to work with.

It’s the AWB :arrow: Dave transfer that I am still questioning. I expect to FH in GW32, so a banked transfer would be wasted (and if I find, when fixtures are known, that I really want AWB for HUD in GW32 I can just FH him back in). Also, Dave’s GW33 matchup (WHU) probably edges AWB’s (new).

An alternative is to use that cash to upgrade Hogg to Tielemans, but I’m not convinced that (Tielemans + 0) > (Azilicueta + 2) in GW31. Plus I like Chelsea's WHU fixture in GW33, which I expect will coincide with Arnie departing, for whichever Bournemouth striker is fit and able at that point.

Back to the present, this weekend’’s line-up looks like –

Fabianski, (Button)
Robertson, Alexander-Arnold, Wan-Bissaka (Lejeune, Doherty)
Salah, Hazard, Pogba, Anderson, (Hogg)
Aguero, Rashford, Arnautovic

Captaincy is currently on Aguero, vice on Robertson. Some sparkle from Chelsea this weekend would definitely help my commitment to the GW31 transfer course.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 15 Mar 2019, 06:04

GW30 review

I followed up last week’s 36 with … 36 points. Yuck. And a big ranking slide to-boot sees me back to 16,000-ish and my worst ranking since GW24 (when I scored … wait for it … 36 points).

Two sensible transfers this week (Aguero :arrow: Vardy and Hogg :arrow: Fraser) and one soul-soothing transfer (Arnie :arrow: Wilson). I’m not sure I can rationalise the last one, for -4, but it makes me feel better*.

I’m still not locked on whether to Free Hit or Wildcard in GW32 – my instinct is the former – but I want to see how the fixtures drop first.

GW31 will be –

Fabianski, (Button)
Robertson, Alexander-Arnold, Lejeune (Wan-Bissaka, Doherty)
Salah, Hazard, Anderson, Fraser (Pogba)
Vardy, Arnautovic, (Rashford)

Captaincy on Salah, vice on Wilson.


* If I FH in GW32, Wilson’s GW33 fixture (BUR) is much better than Arnie’s (che), plus the small budget I release gives me a chance of turning Anderson into Son that week. There’s my attempt at rationalisation, however it’s that kind of forward thinking that got me into the mess I am currently in. :oops:

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Caf » 15 Mar 2019, 15:48

I’d probably hold Arnautovic if not too late, Fuzzy, as it seems he may actually play this week. You can always do the move for free in GW33 so you’re only getting one week’s performance in which to pay back the -4 if you do it now.
Getting Wilson in for a non-player (ie Rashford) is easier to justify. Not sure how much value you have built up in Rash, but regardless I could justify that move to myself a lot more easily

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 15 Mar 2019, 23:31

@Caf - You are right, a hit to remove Arnautovic makes no sense. However the red mist took hold - it’s the first out-and-out rage trade I have made in a very long time. I am not proud of it. :oops:

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 27 Mar 2019, 09:58

GW31 review

It was another stinker of a week unfortunately, 23 – 4 = 19. Rank is now outside the top 20,000. March has been horrible, there is no sugar-coating it.

The only solace (and I am clutching at straws) this week is that my rage trade of Arnautovic wasn’t punished, and there’s some chance that Wilson gets me that 4 points back in GW33.

This week is Free Hit week, and at the moment I am lined up as –

Kepa, (Button)
Doherty, Lindelof, Wan-Bissaka (Valery, Bednarek)
Sterling, Hazard, Pogba, Dilva, (Romeu)
Aguero, Rashford, Higuain

Captaincy on Aguero, vice on Sterling. I will change my mind. More than once.

There are still a few yellow flags, and time for second thoughts, but this is where I am currently at.

An idea I am toying with is to go all-in on the Mancs to score big, and switch out Higuain and Lindelof for Lukaku and a cheap defender (and play Valery at Brighton) or I could even stretch to Jonny in that spot. Obviously I would want some comfort on Lukaku’s fitness. Or am I simply buying too heavily into the funk on Higuain that seems to have descended over the fantasy manager community. I don’t want to kick off a form vs fixtures argument, but car-BRI is pretty appealing, especially if Brighton put their main focus on the Southampton match (which could be an old-time 6 pointer) and on an unlikely Cupset?! But then does Giroud need a run-out in advance of the Europa League quarterfinal, which threatens Higuain’s gametime? Aargh!!!

As a footnote, I am also aware the Free Hit means that Salah will magically pop back in time for GW33, to stink things up again, but that’s next week’s itch to scratch!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 27 Mar 2019, 18:06

There’s lots to like here. Will share my settled team for comparison later in the week

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 07 Apr 2019, 11:54

GW32 review

Free Hit reaped a miserable 73 points, and rank continues its hard reverse and is now out to 40,000.
(I switched Smalling in for Lindelof in the end but, frankly, who cares.)

For GW33, I have reverted back to –

Fabianski (Button)
Lejeune, Robertson, TAA, Wan-Bissaka (Doherty)
Salah, Hazard (c), Fraser, Tielemans (Pogba)
Vardy, Wilson (Rashford)

(One trade made: Tielemans in for Anderson).

Hoping this week stops the rot, and then look forward to a GW34 wildcard. Despite their double in GW35, at least one of Pogba and Rashford will go. Man City forwards are my biggest dilemma – Aguero or Sterling or neither.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 20 Apr 2019, 01:30

GW33&34 review

I have been away so haven’t had a chance to jot down GW33 and 34 musings, and GW35 is upon us.

GW33 was OK (87 points and a bit of a rank recovery). GW34 was bang average – wildcard played for 46 points and rank barely moved. I’m currently sitting around 25,000, which means I’ve really only moved sideways since GW31, and not recovered any of the loss from the debacles of GWs 29 and 30.

The GW34 wildcard has left me with –

Ryan, Foster
Laporte, TAA, Doherty, Duffy, Valery
Salah, Eriksen, Son, Jota, Camarasa
Aguero, Vardy, Jimenez

(Plus 1.8m in the bank, to turn Vardy into Deeney for DGW35, and Jota into Mane for GW36. The plan was to TC Aguero or Jimenez in GW35 and to BB in GW36).

Unfortunately, for the second time this season, I have been stung by making an early transfer – I pulled the trigger on Vardy :arrow: Deeney the day of the Arsenal game. :oops:

That, combined with the abysmality of Brighton, has me rethinking my chip strategy. Results in Europe have changed the complexion of the final 4 weeks of the season, so its not just my chip plans that I need to reassess! My instinct is to take my medicine on Deeney this week, and park him on the bench.

I may or may not make a further transfer this week: I do now have 4.1m to work with. I need to decide how badly I want 3 Liverpool players for GW36, and beyond. (As an aside, looking at it afresh, my plan to lose Jota before Wolves host Fulham in GW37 may have not been my greatest idea). Eriksen to Sterling as a second transfer for this week has some appeal.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 25 Apr 2019, 12:57

GW35 review

100 (-4), and rank stayed relatively steady.

Frankly, I’m pretty annoyed with how that week went down. It started with the premature Deeney transfer, I doubled down my making the (correct) decision to play the triple captain and save the bench boost chip (leaving 22 points on the bench), and iced the cake by putting the triple armband on Aguero (and then having 7 other players outscore him). Valery coming on for a 12 minute cameo, and conceding a goal and ensuring that Duffy remained pinned to my bench, was the cherry on top!

In a parallel universe, I bloodymindedly cling to the bench boost plan (despite Brighton’s defensive calamity and 2 tough away games), I double down on the Deeney mistake by bringing in Andre Gray, and I am smiling – despite my poor play.

Anyways, moving forwards, and onto future poor decisions!

Whilst it seems largely illogical, based on the current malaise at Old Trafford, I have brought in Rashford this week, for Deeney.

GW36 now looks like –

Ryan, (Foster)
Laporte, TAA, Duffy, (Doherty, Valery)
Salah (c), Sterling, Son, Jota, (Camarasa)
Aguero, Rashford, Jimenez

Duffy goes in GW37, and I am holding a further 0.3m.

The one big decision I have left is the timing of the bench boost. GW36 and GW37 are both possibilities. If my crystal ball can tell me when and if Valery will get 90 minutes again, that would be most helpful.

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 25 Apr 2019, 23:10

37

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 26 Apr 2019, 03:55

I thought you might suggest that!

I think it comes down to:
Foster (WOL), Doherty (wat), Valery (BOU) Canarasa (ful)
versus
Ryan (ars), Duffy (ars), Valery (whm), Camarasa (CPL).

It looks straightforward when set out like that, except a) I have a transfer that could strengthen the GW37 bench, b) the GK equation is a bit more complex (both have tough fixtures, so BB has some intangible value in protection against benching the wrong GK), c) Valery’s minutes are a lottery, and d) I’m not sure which week has higher rotation risk (which could erode my bench).

I have just slipped to 2nd in my money league, so there’s a bit at stake.

Still thinking ...

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 01 May 2019, 10:00

GW36 review

96 points, and a small rank improvement to be just back inside 20,000. I need to be satisfied with that, given I decided not to join the chip brigade, and hung onto my bench boost for this week.

Any gain from my bench boost in excess of 10 (my benched points for this week) could be considered as a win however, as I related last week, I don’t look at it as simply as that.

On the plus side, Valery getting his starting spot back is reassuring (the 3 goals that Southampton conceded, less so).

It’s a fine line: Klopp rotation (0 minutes) could erode my bench boost, but "rotation"in the form of managed minutes wouldn’t bother me so much (I am hardly going to bench Salah or TAA, and if they are highly owned and get limited minutes, the bench boost is quite handy if you take a H2H mindset).

Absent an untimely hiccup during the week, Shaw will come in for Duffy, emptying my small bank. (I will want Shaw for GW38 as well, with the early plan being Jimenez to Wilson in GW38).

So GW37 should be –

Ryan, Foster
Laporte, TAA, Doherty, Shaw, Valery
Salah, Sterling, Son, Jota, Camarasa
Aguero (c), Rashford, Jimenez

I am hoping Rashford a) comes up, and b) performs!

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 09 May 2019, 11:51

GW37 review

63 points, and rank improved a little further to be inside 15,000. That score was bench boost assisted – it wasn’t the most lucrative BB, but at least I did get 15 scores to count.

My plan for GW38 was looking like Jimenez to either Wilson or Arnautovic, or Jota to Babel. However the Son suspension (I can’t see it being overturned) puts paid to that, so one of Jimenez or Jota will start and I’m now looking at Son replacements. Who that will be, I really don’t know – Ryan Fraser is strongly in contention, but I do favour a bit of a GW38 punt. I would really like to make up the 12 point gap to get into the top 10,000.

That will give me:

Foster, (Ryan - knowing that he will sub in anyhow when Gomes starts)
Laporte, TAA, Shaw, Valery, (Doherty)
Salah, Sterling, X, Y1, (Camarasa)
Aguero, Rashford, Y2

[X is Son replacement. Y1/Y2 is my on-field decision on Jota or Jimenez. I feel the potential upside on Jota exceeds the upside on Jimenez, but don’t have a lot of substance to back that “feel”. Neither of them has an away record that inspires me.]


Just to capture this for future reference, here’s a quick stats and story tell, from the season that was (as of GW37!) -

In terms of rankings, I got to 15,000 by GW8. I played the WC in GW10 – experienced a small dip, but then was in top the 10,000 between GWs 26 and 29. I then proceeded to have a rough patch in GWs 30, 31, 32 (including an underwhelming FH in 32), and rank dropped back to 40,000. My chip tactic was WC34, TC35, BB37 (I just couldn’t rationalise the BB in 35).

My rank as of GW37 is 13,314 (of 6,320,546).

I took one 8-point hit all season, in GW20, when my ranking was around 30,000, which set me up well for the next period. I didn’t take another hit until GW31, when I was in my slump.

FPL Review would say that I had an unlucky run through GWs 29 to 31 (scoring just 91 points, and underperforming “Fair Points” by a massive 72.2 points in those 3 gameweeks). To what extent all FPL managers were consistently “unlucky” over that period (or lucky over other periods), I do not know. My team overperformed that measure by 69 points over the full season, which is hardly significant.

Total transfers = 44 (includes the one I will take for GW38). Hits taken = 10.

To Gameweek 37, total points = 2,309. Total benched points = 173. “Immediate points gained from transfers” = 182 (PS, that’s a dodgy stat). Captaincy “fails” (<10 points) = 8. Three times I captained a player with value <10m, for an average of 3.3 points!

I played 3 at the back only 15 times, and it was my least successful formation/structure (average = 56.8). 4 at the back: 17 times (69.9). 5 at the back (excl BB): 4 times (61.5).

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Re: Fuzzy Warbles

Post by Fuzzy » 21 May 2019, 12:47

GW38 review

For no particularly good reason, other than to put a full stop on the season - I had 50 points to close it out, and a final rank of 18,269. **sigh**

Went Son to Moura. The Luke Shaw no-show meant I had both Jimenez and Jota on field.

Plenty of musing to be done ahead of next season ...

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