The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

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DavidLloydIsAHero
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero »

Hands up anyone who predicted that before GW1

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by thebillfella »

Surprised it's happened so early tbh - I was sure that in previous seasons price changes didn't happen until towards the end of the first week but may be wrong. May not wait until the Friday team news to make my change then...

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Smurphy Paw »

DavidLloydIsAHero wrote: 15 Sep 2020, 09:09 Hands up anyone who predicted that before GW1
Not even Patrick Bamford would have predicted that!

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by wahine »

Question :?: . Does "popularity in the transfer market" and therefore price rises and falls be based on the % owned stats rising and falling, rather than number of transfers in and out or even net transfers? and secondly :?: because the transfers in and out numbers don't seem to make any sense, for example 52,492 Fernandes out? 55,129 Martial out? 1268 Smalling out? really? lots of red flag and unlikely starters transferred in also every week? is that really what some people are transferring in and out :?: even if they are tinkers :shock:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

Rises are based on a specific number of net transfers in required and ownership doesn't matter (other than to say the higher the ownership the fewer managers there are to bring those players in).

Drops are percentage based, so exact numbers of NTOs required will vary player to player, and will be multiplied by some flags and also by other nuanced rules.

The detail is here if interested:
viewtopic.php?p=3216275#p3216275

With regards to odd transfers out, not everyone plays FPL to gain the most points and with millions of entrants in total there are gonna be enough anti-fantasy entrants to show up there.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe »

Everything seems explainable in the price market this year so far, except James Rodriguez, how on earth has he not risen yet?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero »

Caught it by Salah last night, wasn't expecting that rise

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by snout »

If I've counted correctly, there's been 25 rises this season out of 180 price changes and hence 7.2 more drops than rises.

Is this about par for the course early season?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Grant »

Werner’s price change prediction has gone from -99% to -33%, presume wildcards?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

snout wrote: 25 Sep 2020, 09:05 If I've counted correctly, there's been 25 rises this season out of 180 price changes and hence 7.2 more drops than rises.

Is this about par for the course early season?
I'm not sure about the exact ratio, but yes it's quite normal for the price drops to be significantly higher than the rises, especially early in the season. It's a natural consequence of the market of course, but these articles from mathematically safe and fantasy football pundits from previous seasons dig into the detail if you're interested.

For some short-hand, this is an old graph (data over two years from 2014-2016) but illustrates the point quite well:

Image

You'd have to dig deeper into the detail around which price changes are relevant (if a 4.5 defender that people know isn't gonna start drops, then does that mean anything?).

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Multiple Scorgasms
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Multiple Scorgasms »

Totally missed Jemal Lewis drop!!!! Had so many drops already. My worst season for it.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by 10ylaher »

Hey guys. I had a quick question
I understand that I bought Salah for £12.0 at the start of the season, and his price is now £12.4, then my selling price would be £12.2. This is a £0.2 profit.
BUT if I kept him and his price goes down to 12.3 (inevitable at the moment as his status changed to red), would my selling price go down again to £12.1?

I haven’t played fantasy in a few years and just wanted clarification. Thanks

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

It would go down to 12.1 yes.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by 10ylaher »

Mav3rick wrote: 14 Nov 2020, 08:19 It would go down to 12.1 yes.
Thanks bud

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Turd Ferguson »

De Bruyne rising is a disgrace. FPL intervening to increase price pressure on a popular player. He was never going to rise under a standard algorithm.

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eastcentral1
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by eastcentral1 »

Turd Ferguson wrote:De Bruyne rising is a disgrace. FPL intervening to increase price pressure on a popular player. He was never going to rise under a standard algorithm.
STOP THE COUNT!

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

Turd Ferguson wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 08:41 De Bruyne rising is a disgrace. FPL intervening to increase price pressure on a popular player. He was never going to rise under a standard algorithm.
Spot on. It is a disgrace.

He was about -20% (yes that's MINUS 20%) in both FPL Statistics and FFFix!

Manual intervention more or less confirmed now.

There's no way Stemania can support this price change disgrace anymore.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

Salah should have dropped again as well which he didnt

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

eastcentral1 wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 09:43
Turd Ferguson wrote:De Bruyne rising is a disgrace. FPL intervening to increase price pressure on a popular player. He was never going to rise under a standard algorithm.
STOP THE COUNT!
:lol:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

Pirlo's Beard wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 10:34
eastcentral1 wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 09:43
Turd Ferguson wrote:De Bruyne rising is a disgrace. FPL intervening to increase price pressure on a popular player. He was never going to rise under a standard algorithm.
STOP THE COUNT!
:lol:
Someone is trying...
Update 21st Nov 2020 10:00 am

Could the person on IP Address 3.250.158.99 please stop hacking the website. They are running a python tool that is set to repeat every 10 seconds. If this does not cease within the next 30 minutes I will submit a report to the relevant authorities.
http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/Home/ComingSoon

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

On the KDB question, lets wait and see if any contributing factors are forthcoming from Nigel before passing judgement.

It's easy to cry foul without understanding the inner workings 100%.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by hancockjr »

No - let’s jump to uninformed conclusions. It’s far more fun.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

hancockjr wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 10:46 No - let’s jump to uninformed conclusions. It’s far more fun.
https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q?t=35

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

If both major price change sites give him -20% and he rises, it just proves how random this system is from every FPL manager's point of view. These sites are run by some extremely high-skilled people and if even those people are so far off then it's by default impossible for anyone to predict price changes. Which makes it random to all managers, regardless of whether or not a literal manual intervention happened.

Either manual intervention happened or the algorithm is totally impossible to predict, which means it's random to all FPL managers in any case.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Turd Ferguson »

eastcentral1 wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 09:43
Turd Ferguson wrote:De Bruyne rising is a disgrace. FPL intervening to increase price pressure on a popular player. He was never going to rise under a standard algorithm.
STOP THE COUNT!
We need a Giuliani press conference asap

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by hancockjr »

Finisher1 wrote: 21 Nov 2020, 11:19 If both major price change sites give him -20% and he rises, it just proves how random this system is from every FPL manager's point of view. These sites are run by some extremely high-skilled people and if even those people are so far off then it's by default impossible for anyone to predict price changes. Which makes it random to all managers, regardless of whether or not a literal manual intervention happened.

Either manual intervention happened or the algorithm is totally impossible to predict, which means it's random to all FPL managers in any case.
Yes, in that one isolated case.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by TheRumourMill »

Salah's changed from red flagged to yellow flagged. Shouldn't that be accompanied with a price lock?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by FranckKessie »

I might be off but isnt it only when they go straight from red to clear?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by From4corners »

KDB at 30% for a rise tonight. Will he go up overnight..

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Anyone else having issues with FPLStats? I can only see the list in the old format

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