The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

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gm1863
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by gm1863 »

jaycar25 wrote: 22 Sep 2019, 23:56
Talkie Toaster wrote: 28 Aug 2019, 16:33 It's because of the sales tax.
If a player rises by 0.1 and then you sell him, the sales tax wipes out the 0.1 profit. This is why your 6.7 rising to 6.8 is only worth 6.7 when you sell.
When a player rises by 0.2 the sales tax only wipes out half of your profit so you get an extra 0.1.

So in this case, you've bought for 6.7, can sell at 7.0, and will receive 6.8, so yes, you do have an extra 0.1 cash to spend.
If Pukki rises another 0.1 to 7.1, you will get 6.9 if you sell him, giving you an extra 0.2.
Good Evening/Morning Mate!,
Can you explain why Cantwell is 5.0 but making transfers he's only valued at 4.7
Whereas Pukki is 7.1 value and 6.9 selling.
I'm trying to get my head round this.

All the Best.
Well what price did you buy them at? Unless you bought Cantwell at 5m he won't sell for 5m. You presumably bought him at 4.5?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by jaycar25 »

Yes.
I think you're right.
Begining to make a little sense now.

Thanks for the response

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by gm1863 »

jaycar25 wrote: 23 Sep 2019, 18:39 Yes.
I think you're right.
Begining to make a little sense now.

Thanks for the response
For every 0.2m increase in player value since purchasing the player your sell price will go up 0.1m. That's it in a nutshell! It would be nice to get the full 100% though :lol:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Kotzata »

I didn't check the price changes sites yesterday so Greenwood dropping is a surprise to me. He was at around -60% two days ago, was it expected?

Will he start dropping like a stone now with more and more people ditching him due to this first price drop what do you think?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

I was surprised to see that as well, but due to injuries Greenwood will have a run in the team now and i suspect at 4.4 more people will bring him in to there team, so id expect him to got to 4.5 before he goes to 4.3

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Greenwood had been teetering on the brink of a price drop for a few days on FPLStats. Now he’s £0.1m cheaper people have started to transfer him back in so, as Stevieste says, he shouldn’t drop again at the moment

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Kotzata »

Hopefully he gets some minutes and scores a goal to climb back up to 4.5 then...

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Bob Newhart »

Kotzata wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 09:32 Hopefully he gets some minutes and scores a goal to climb back up to 4.5 then...
Less likely now that Martial is back.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

Bob Newhart wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 20:58
Kotzata wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 09:32 Hopefully he gets some minutes and scores a goal to climb back up to 4.5 then...
Less likely now that Martial is back.
Not really the case as Rashford is out now amd he could take his place and the fact he scored in his last 2 starts and Man Utd lost 2-0 against West ham, id not be surprised to see him have a proper run in the team now

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Bob Newhart »

Stevieste wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 21:10
Bob Newhart wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 20:58
Kotzata wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 09:32 Hopefully he gets some minutes and scores a goal to climb back up to 4.5 then...
Less likely now that Martial is back.
Not really the case as Rashford is out now amd he could take his place and the fact he scored in his last 2 starts and Man Utd lost 2-0 against West ham, id not be surprised to see him have a proper run in the team now
Definitely the case that it is less likely. Doesn't mean it won't happen, though.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by fred1266 »

Stevieste wrote: 26 Sep 2019, 07:23 I was surprised to see that as well, but due to injuries Greenwood will have a run in the team now and i suspect at 4.4 more people will bring him in to there team, so id expect him to got to 4.5 before he goes to 4.3
nah think most people switching to front 3

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Bob Newhart »

🗣️ Solskjaer on Greenwood: "But as you say, we've managed him. We can't just throw him in the deep end all of the time. He's proved in those games he's ready for it, now Premier League... I'll have the weekend to think about it!"🗣️ Solskjaer on Greenwood: "He doesn't turn down chances to finish. When you're not 18 yet and you keep trusting yourself, he gets the chances... I'm not worried about him at all."🗣️ Solskjaer on whether Mason Greenwood is ready for a start v Arsenal: "He might be, because he's proven when he's been on the pitch in the last two games he's started against Astana and Rochdale, when you get him in the box, he's dangerous." 🗣️ Solskjaer when asked by a reporter if Rashford/Martial have "no chance whatsoever": "I wouldn't put my life on it, no, but that's part of this game, you work with what you have."

#FFScout #FPL #GW7 #MUFC #FantasyPL

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by blahblah »

I guess you bought Cantwell at 4.5 as you get half the difference rounded fown on selling.

And Pukki you bought at 6.6 or 6.7m

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Bob Newhart »

blahblah wrote: 27 Sep 2019, 15:02 I guess you bought Cantwell at 4.5 as you get half the difference rounded fown on selling.

And Pukki you bought at 6.6 or 6.7m
Me? Yes, I think so on both. Why?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by blahblah »

Whoops I didn't notice the next page and was answering something old 😢

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe »

Are they gonna let KDB drop over the international break or will they prevent it like they did with Martial during the last one?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Sutter Kane »

germainelefoe wrote: 05 Oct 2019, 16:31 Are they gonna let KDB drop over the international break?
KDB rose in price last night. That's an overall decrease in ownership (by quite some distance) and he went up! :lol: :roll:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

Sutter Kane wrote: 20 Oct 2019, 08:51
germainelefoe wrote: 05 Oct 2019, 16:31 Are they gonna let KDB drop over the international break?
KDB rose in price last night. That's an overall decrease in ownership (by quite some distance) and he went up! :lol: :roll:
I have KDB so I'm on the winning side of this case, but I think it's now very obvious to everyone that price changes this season are a disgrace.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania »

He didn't have the NTOs to drop and then gained owners throughout the IB!

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

Stemania wrote: 20 Oct 2019, 10:20 He didn't have the NTOs to drop and then gained owners throughout the IB!
He was sold by 821,375 managers and didn't drop :lol:

All price change prediction sites were very certain he will drop and none of them had him anywhere near to rise last night. Everywhere in FPL community people are now thinking there has to be manual intervention by FPL Towers.

What would it take to make you question price change system, Stemania? Is there any possible scenario where you would actually question it? What if some player was sold by three million managers and still not dropping, would that be enough to make you question price change system? Or would you still say "he didn't get enough NTO"?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania »

Here's a post on twitter by Nigel (who runs FPLS) at the start of the International break:

Image

He predicts exactly what has just happened based on his knowledge of how the system works, and explains that there is no evidence (as far as he, the expert, has ever seen) of any manual intervention or significant change to the system by FPL Towers.

This is just how the system has worked for ages. Whether the system is a good one or a bad one I don't really take a view on (and that's an entirely different issue), but it is the same system and (according to the guy who knows the most about it) has not been manually intervened upon.


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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

Yeah I can't imagine a scenario where Nigel himself would suggest there's a manual intervention by FPL Towers. Why would he do that? I don't think he wants to declare a war against FPL Towers.

The fact is his prediction tool was very confident KDB would drop.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania »

Or alternatively, he's just telling the truth. He himself says his tool is/was not accurate in this case.

If you don't believe in the integrity of the tool-maker, why would you believe their tool?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Stemania wrote: 20 Oct 2019, 10:46 Or alternatively, he's just telling the truth.
What a crazy conspiracy. :wink:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

Stemania wrote: 20 Oct 2019, 10:46 Or alternatively, he's just telling the truth. He himself says his tool is/was not accurate in this case.

If you don't believe in the integrity of the tool-maker, why would you believe their tool?
I totally believe in his integrity. I just don't think he will ever suggest there's manual intervention unless he was 100% sure there is - and he can never be 100% sure, because the price change algorithm is secret.

Price change sites are never going to be accurate exactly because the algorithm is secret, which means every possible randomness in price changes can always be explained by "price change sites not being accurate". So even if a player was sold by three million managers and didn't drop, even then it could be said "price change sites were not accurate in this case, small data sets etc".
Last edited by Finisher1 on 20 Oct 2019, 11:10, edited 6 times in total.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by hancockjr »

So the baseline was reset at the end of the gameweek, which would normally remove surplus NTI, but in this case, unusually, as there had been some bad news post the rise, the reset removed surplus NTO of a riser?

If there'd been no price rise for De Bruyne in the gameweek, the NTO would not have been removed (no baseline readjustment is made if there's not been a price change in the gameweek) and he would have fallen?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania »

Exactly my (not necessarily correct) understanding hjr. :)

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania »

Finisher1 wrote: 20 Oct 2019, 10:52Price change sites are never going to be accurate exactly because the algorithm is secret, which means every possible randomness in price changes can always be explained by "price change sites not being accurate". So even if a player was sold by three million managers and didn't drop, even then it could be said "price change sites were not accurate in this case, small data sets etc".
In this case he gave a precise explanation of why KDB acted as he did (succinctly put by hjr above) and contradicted his own tool's prediction in advance! It's not even a case of error margins or even necessarily a case of a unusual behaviour!

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

Regardless of whether there's manual intervention or not, what this case once again underlines is that when even some brilliant highly skilled programmers got this so wrong (once again!) it's very obvious that a secret price change algorithm only increases randomness in this game.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe »

I would bet a large amount of money there was manual intervention in KDB's price over the international break, and in Martial's price during the previous one.

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