The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

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Mav3rick
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

Not that we'd ever be able to prove it one way or another, but I'd take that bet on with you :lol:

I think the thing about the price changes is two fold - we don't know the full algorithm (which some think is unfair but is a different issue) and most of us (myself included) aren't involved enough with monitoring what we do know about it to understand if price changes look in line with current expectations or are actually unusual and out of line with what we know.

I glance at FPLS every so often and I understand the basics, but the advanced nuances are not something I've studied, so when something odd (to my casual experience of price changes) occurs then I can't tell the difference between manual intervention and my lack of knowledge in the algorithm - any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic - as Arthur C Clarke put it.

Which is why I am personally extremely thankful for the experts like Nigel who do live this stuff day-to-day and whose words on the subject should be given appropriately large weight. They can distinguish the magic, at least to a greater degree than I can.

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Sutter Kane
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Sutter Kane »

The only thing is, logic tells us that it makes sense for FPL to hold prices of under-priced players. And that's what's happened - under-priced players having huge NTOs reset at just the right time to cancel out the majority of them (the only thing is, I don't think that was the majority, certainly not in Martial's case). Martial-gate was absolutely absurd.

I held him too so OK with me anyway.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania »

Logic doesn't tell me that tbh. ;)

Instead, I would surmise that FPL have designed a system that (most likely indirectly) protects high ownership injured players from plummeting in price on occasion; be it through unfortunately timed NTO resetting or whatever. I think that's a good thing personally, as it doesn't double punish owners every time.

However, it is dangerous to group different situations with similar superficial properties together; it's how conspiracy theorys get formed in the first place. KBD and Martial are clearly two completely different cases, one of which (at least) has a perfectly logical rule-based explanation suggested.

I agree with Mav that the main culprit for the rest of us is almost certainly our lack of perfect knowledge of the system - that is the view of Nigel too about his own errors. Logic tells me to listen to the experts.


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Pirlo's Beard
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Stemania wrote: 21 Oct 2019, 08:45 Logic tells me to listen to the experts.
Be gone with your logic!

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

No one here is talking about conspiracy theories. Let's talk about facts, shall we?

The fact is rules state this:
Player prices change during the season dependent on the popularity of the player in the transfer market.
This explicitly gives FPL Towers completely free hands to do whatever they want with price changes. So if any manual intervention happens it's not a conspiracy.

Like Mav3rick wisely said, we can't prove it one way or another. So personally I think it's possible there has been manual interventions and it's also possible there has not been manual intervention. What about you Stemania? Do you think it's absolutely impossible that any manual intervention has ever happened?

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Sutter Kane
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Sutter Kane »

Stemania wrote: 21 Oct 2019, 08:45 Logic doesn't tell me that tbh. ;)
Why not? FPL underpriced some assets quite badly. They've cocked up, now they have to freeze drops to compensate - makes perfect logical sense to me, it's probably what I'd do so I'm a hypocrite. :D . It's absolutely irrelevant whether it's a good thing or not. (means to an end and all that). Let's see what happens with Salah. I see he had no problem dropping recently.

I can't really label this a conspiracy theory in the sense that it is used nowadays because it's a game, that is free and as mentioned, there's guys out there doing a good job of tracking prices for us. However all the systems have flaws (e.g. remember RVP never dropping due to flag changes) so manual intervention would suit the smooth running of the game from FPL point of view, but it's disingenuous.

There's no way of knowing so for now, this topic is just something to while away the time. It seems convenient that it happens to a previously cocked up price. I wonder how many times we can keep using the reason that it's just timing of cancelled NTOs or wildcards (all the time, to particular players). Best laid plans can be ruined by them messing with the system manually because sometimes it essentially appears to be random.

I think even the most litigious fiso members were a bit clueless with the ongoing Martial situation. He'll probably be 9mn soon :lol:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe »

Finisher1 wrote: 21 Oct 2019, 11:01 The fact is rules state this:
Player prices change during the season dependent on the popularity of the player in the transfer market.
This explicitly gives FPL Towers completely free hands to do whatever they want with price changes. So if any manual intervention happens it's not a conspiracy.
Yeah exactly, and the official rules also explicitly state they keep what decides price drops/rises secret so in reality it is not a conspiracy theory as such to say they manually intervene sometimes - they are free to do what they want.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

Another tweet from Nigel today stating no evidence of price tampering with Martial's latest rise:

https://mobile.twitter.com/fpl_statisti ... 6735691777

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Turd Ferguson
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Turd Ferguson »

The strangest one for me was Maddison’s rise over the international break. He rose very shortly after having his flag removed (he’d been getting transfers out due to the flag). KDB also rose shortly after losing his flag. Might be something to watch. Perhaps there’s a “bounce back” mechanism where players rise easily after coming back from injury.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Fuzzy »

Do angry transfers count double?! :lol:

I will admit, I wasn’t monitoring closely, but the rate at which Otamendi reached his drop threshold was crazy.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 »

It seems Martial might rise again tonight, based on precedents from this season. I mean at the moment he is only 73.5% in FPL Statistics so not very close, but this season he has already risen totally out of the blue two times, and took ages to drop once when he was injured. He is a price change pet this season, so he might well rise again.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Joccki_10 »

Alli dropped while being around -87,4 all week. Another remarkable drop. Never got close to one according to fplstats. I think I have never lost value on players as much as this season.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Joccki_10 wrote: 10 Jan 2020, 07:15 Alli dropped while being around -87,4 all week. Another remarkable drop. Never got close to one according to fplstats. I think I have never lost value on players as much as this season.
Yes, remarkable that the second-most transferred-out player in the entire game this gameweek finally dropped in price after haemorrhaging owners all week, who could have seen that coming. :roll:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Oxford NZ »

^ there have been some harsh price drops this season and I am not sure it has enhanced the game at all. I am not a top player by any means but I have lost 1.4m against the top 10k over the last 4 game weeks. Selling Alli, Martial, Mount and Son would not help TV but ultimately will help OR, I hope. The Vardy price drop this week was annoying as well.

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The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Joccki_10 »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote: 10 Jan 2020, 07:15 Alli dropped while being around -87,4 all week. Another remarkable drop. Never got close to one according to fplstats. I think I have never lost value on players as much as this season.
Yes, remarkable that the second-most transferred-out player in the entire game this gameweek finally dropped in price after haemorrhaging owners all week, who could have seen that coming. :roll:
You’re being ironic again but fplstats was once a pretty reliable source for price changes so how can they be so far off these things now?

Alli was a possible transfer out for me as well but I wanted to wait until more injury news on Friday regarding Maddison and Pulisic and fplstats told me I had nothing to worry about.

It’s frustrating as when price changes don’t force you doing your transfers on Friday is the most sensible thing to do.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by hancockjr »

No, it indicated you had nothing to worry about. FPLStats tells you nothing.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by math! »

Joccki_10 wrote: 10 Jan 2020, 08:20
Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote: 10 Jan 2020, 07:15 Alli dropped while being around -87,4 all week. Another remarkable drop. Never got close to one according to fplstats. I think I have never lost value on players as much as this season.
Yes, remarkable that the second-most transferred-out player in the entire game this gameweek finally dropped in price after haemorrhaging owners all week, who could have seen that coming. :roll:
You’re being ironic again but fplstats was once a pretty reliable source for price changes so how can they be so far off these things now?

Alli was a possible transfer out for me as well but I wanted to wait until more injury news on Friday regarding Maddison and Pulisic and fplstats told me I had nothing to worry about.

It’s frustrating as when price changes don’t force you doing your transfers on Friday is the most sensible thing to do.
I stopped giving that attention earlier in the season because it is very inaccurate. That kind of jump has happened before.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Noobking »

Joccki_10 wrote: 10 Jan 2020, 07:15 Alli dropped while being around -87,4 all week. Another remarkable drop. Never got close to one according to fplstats. I think I have never lost value on players as much as this season.
I think FFFix had him dropping last night
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick »

I would imagine we are in a period of increased wildcard activity and this always makes the price change sites less accurate as they have to guess how many transfers are actually applicable to price changes.

I know it's not helpful advice, but you just have to increase the margin of error in weeks like this.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by math! »

I was very tempted to use the WC myself after the congestion mini-season. I can imagine many others felt the same and went one step further.


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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe »

Button dropped :cry:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

germainelefoe wrote: 16 Jan 2020, 09:16 Button dropped :cry:
Thats unfortunate and they must be jumping on Mccarthy so have 2 playing keepers.

Thats twice been caught out with this season with this, as it happened to Greenwood as well earlier in season

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by hancockjr »

He wasn’t a long way off - was maybe 95% about a week or 2 ago when I last looked.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

Anybody know the odds on Salah rising tonight ?

Id rather he didn't, if anybody knows

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by ajcairns »

fffix suggesting he wont Stevie, unless there's a rush later

77% to a rise and currently at +0.30 per hour

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Stevieste
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

ajcairns wrote: 17 Jan 2020, 15:34 fffix suggesting he wont Stevie, unless there's a rush later

77% to a rise and currently at +0.30 per hour
Thank you 👍🏻

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

ajcairns wrote: 17 Jan 2020, 15:34 fffix suggesting he wont Stevie, unless there's a rush later

77% to a rise and currently at +0.30 per hour
He's at 95.4% on FPL Statistics though, so there must be a decent chance of a rise.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by ajcairns »

80% now and rising at 0.70% an hour.

Might well go up.

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Stevieste
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

Surprised he going up tonight when they have the mighty man utd next 😳🤣

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stevieste »

Salah never rose and Sterling never dropped, so managed to save my 0.2 in the bank for transfer tomorrow when they no doubt do rise and fall.

A bit of luck at last it would seem 🤔

Que the Salah injury on Sunday 😳🤣

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