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The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by blahblah » 18 Aug 2019, 08:31

I've just had one of those thought things 😱 which might contribute to the noyion of expensive players being protected.

What if there is some sort of cap on the number of transfers between 2 given players that impact the Price Changes or there are tiers where they count less?

I'll use extreme numbers to illustrate so no "there can't be that many" pedantism, nor fixture stuff please.

What if 2m managers make the same transfer eg Auba to Kane and trigger Double changes and maybe treble the night after the GW starts when the Threshold is reset?

Surely FPL would want to stop the cash saving of players swapping back in a few GW's and making .4m?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by jaycar25 » 28 Aug 2019, 15:45

Hello All.

Not quite sure how these price rises work??
Brought in Pukki on a wild card last week early morning,
pretty sure it was 6.7, and then received the price rise to 6.8
within about 30 minutes.

When I go to transfer other players now!, Pukki is showing 6.8 instead
of 6.7, so I received the price rise plus the extra 0.1 mil cash in theory!.

Hope I'm making sense, and not going mad!

Can anyone explain, thanks.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Talkie Toaster » 28 Aug 2019, 16:09

jaycar25 wrote:
28 Aug 2019, 15:45
Hello All.

Not quite sure how these price rises work??
Brought in Pukki on a wild card last week early morning,
pretty sure it was 6.7, and then received the price rise to 6.8
within about 30 minutes.

When I go to transfer other players now!, Pukki is showing 6.8 instead
of 6.7, so I received the price rise plus the extra 0.1 mil cash in theory!.

Hope I'm making sense, and not going mad!

Can anyone explain, thanks.
I'm pretty sure you're not mad, but you've missed that Pukki has risen in price twice more since then. He's now worth 7.0.
This means that you have made 0.3 in profit over your initial 6.7.

When you transfer Pukki out you will lose 50% of this as a sales tax, which will be 0.15. This gets rounded up to 0.2 so your final selling price is 7.0 - 0.2 =6.8.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by jaycar25 » 28 Aug 2019, 16:20

Thanks for answering.

What I'm trying to say is!
in the past, if I transfer in a player for, say 6.7 and then that player rises afterwards to 6.8, I will gain the team value, but if I then sell him, the value of the player will be 6.7.
In this case I received the 3 rises, but was expecting Pukkis sell on value to be 6.7.
So Pukki having a 6.8 sell on value and 3 rises means I have 0.1 million profit to buy with, If I decide to sell him.

Hope that's making sense.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Talkie Toaster » 28 Aug 2019, 16:33

It's because of the sales tax.
If a player rises by 0.1 and then you sell him, the sales tax wipes out the 0.1 profit. This is why your 6.7 rising to 6.8 is only worth 6.7 when you sell.
When a player rises by 0.2 the sales tax only wipes out half of your profit so you get an extra 0.1.

So in this case, you've bought for 6.7, can sell at 7.0, and will receive 6.8, so yes, you do have an extra 0.1 cash to spend.
If Pukki rises another 0.1 to 7.1, you will get 6.9 if you sell him, giving you an extra 0.2.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by jaycar25 » 28 Aug 2019, 16:52

So this is what I've been missing for the past 3 years.
Makes the game even better than I thought it was
Nice one. Thanks for the explanation chaps, and good luck in the game.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe » 30 Aug 2019, 23:31

Joccki_10 wrote:
20 Jan 2019, 17:01
I don’t get how TAA still hasn’t dropped in price.
Joccki_10 wrote:
29 Jan 2019, 07:54
So Kane dropped to £12.4 after not being close to dropping the entire week (including last night!) and TAA still is £5.2? What a load of nonsense.
Turd Ferguson wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 21:36
I've been waiting for TAA to drop for about two weeks. Smacks of intervention by the FPL team.
Going back to last seasons now but yes, TAA's price was almost certainly manually prevented from dropping when it "should" have last season. I use quotation marks as FPL keep everything to with price changes secret and they are well within their rights to do what they want. There was a similar situation with Salah the season previous. I cannot really fathom a motivation for it.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by roadrunner » 07 Sep 2019, 04:00

Something’s been puzzling me about the FPL Statistics website. Here’s an example. Every day for a while now Martial creeps up to 100%+ of his target for a price drop, and every night he drops back down to about 97%. How should I interpret that? Right now there are something like 50 players on 97% of the way to a price drop. It seems inconceivable that they would all be on exactly the same figure.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by roadrunner » 07 Sep 2019, 04:00

Something’s been puzzling me about the FPL Statistics website. Here’s an example. Every day for a while now Martial creeps up to 100%+ of his target for a price drop, and every night he drops back down to about 97%. How should I interpret that? Right now there are something like 50 players on 97% of the way to a price drop. It seems inconceivable that they would all be on exactly the same figure.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by hancockjr » 07 Sep 2019, 11:10

They don't know what the threshold for a drop is, so they test one but when the player doesn't drop they increase it (hence now only 97% of the way to a drop) and test that the next night. That's my theory anyway. Are players lower than Martial actually dropping in price? That would scupper my theory.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 07 Sep 2019, 12:18

hancockjr wrote:
07 Sep 2019, 11:10
They don't know what the threshold for a drop is, so they test one but when the player doesn't drop they increase it (hence now only 97% of the way to a drop) and test that the next night. That's my theory anyway. Are players lower than Martial actually dropping in price? That would scupper my theory.
My theory incorporates this and the knowledge that transfers whilst on wildcard don’t count towards price changes.
We’re in the key GW4-8 period where lots of people use the first wildcard to ‘set’ their team for the medium term. So FPLStats will register the move but not necessarily know if it is a ‘normal’ or WC transfer until later.
As I say, this is my theory. I’d welcome clarification

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by germainelefoe » 09 Sep 2019, 04:58

lol @ martial not dropping

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Sutter Kane » 10 Sep 2019, 07:42

germainelefoe wrote:
09 Sep 2019, 04:58
lol @ martial not dropping
Yeh, they've got to be artificially holding his price. Perhaps FPL towers think he could be too cheap. This way if he does turn out to be a season keeper, his price will soar as hardly anyone owns him right now!

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by ajcairns » 10 Sep 2019, 12:49

Caught out by the Laporte drop. Don't think it was expected last night?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero » 10 Sep 2019, 13:56

ajcairns wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 12:49
Caught out by the Laporte drop. Don't think it was expected last night?
As was I, very annoying

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Turd Ferguson » 10 Sep 2019, 14:58

Sutter Kane wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 07:42
germainelefoe wrote:
09 Sep 2019, 04:58
lol @ martial not dropping
Yeh, they've got to be artificially holding his price. Perhaps FPL towers think he could be too cheap. This way if he does turn out to be a season keeper, his price will soar as hardly anyone owns him right now!
Yeah, there's been some occasions in the last few years where it looks like FPL put their thumb on the scale and prevented a future popular pick from dropping during an injury. Martial went from 1.1m ownership to 680k before GW4 even started, and he's had net transfers out throughout the whole IB.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by roadrunner » 10 Sep 2019, 16:00

That seems the most likely explanation, it's a huge drop in ownership.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania » 13 Sep 2019, 11:49

I've also been dismayed by Martial's lack of movement. I asked Nigel (of FPLS) and he directed me to his general thoughts on it:
11th September:

A reminder that during the international break we are still in a period of intense wild card usage. As we enter the later stages of the game week, the volume of price changes will again increase. Due to the wild cards the caveats outlined below still apply. If a particular players price change is important to your plans and the Tar% is below -96% or above 94% then the likelihood of a price change occurring is quite high. You have been warned!!!

Typically during the international break there will be a number of players who refuse to drop in price (despite being consistently set at ~-100%). This is usually a result of the transfer patterns for that player changing, for example from a player that before the international break was a favoured transfer by teams not on a wild card to a player who during the break is now a wild card casualty. This is a common pattern each season at this time.

26th August:

A wild card onslaught is currently gaining momentum, but has not yet reached last weeks 'mega' proportions. Hopefully it's just a small wave. However, do expect overly enthusiastic predictions and the occassional sizable error whilst the wild card volumes are high.

Whenever the total volume of wild card transfers for a player exceeds the normal (i.e. effective) transfers for that player, then predictions for that player become extermely difficult. In effect, accuracy reduces and overly enthusiastic predictions result for that player. The loss in accuracy is a direct consequence of the statistical mathematics utilised in making the price predictions.
This would seem to have a decent go towards explaining Martial, where approaching GW4 a huge number of transfers out were inevitably non-wildcard - if you had him you may well have needed to transfer him out to field a good team (as I did myself) - but after the GW4 deadline it will have swung massively towards wildcard transfers out. Indeed, if not wildcarding why would you transfer out Martial over the IB when he was expected to be back? But, the predictions for IB drop would still be based on pre GW4 activity (assuming a much lower wildcard transfer percentage) explaining the recurring incorrect drop predictions. Whether that's enough to explain the big fall in ownership I'm not sure, but we've seen many similar cases in the past (notable Kane earlier this season).

With that in mind (and him being ruled out now) I fully expect him to finally drop tonight as more 'real' transfers out are now made.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Sep 2019, 07:35

Stemania wrote:
13 Sep 2019, 11:49
With that in mind (and him being ruled out now) I fully expect him to finally drop tonight as more 'real' transfers out are now made.
:lol:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania » 14 Sep 2019, 08:13

:mrgreen:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by From4corners » 14 Sep 2019, 08:40

And there I thought me transferring him out last evening would have caused his price to drop..

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 » 18 Sep 2019, 12:27

What's the experts' understanding about price change implications when a red flag is removed? Does it affect the threshold and/or accumulated NTO? Is it different when it goes straight from red to blue compared to when it goes from red to yellow?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania » 18 Sep 2019, 13:06

Used to be that red to clear gives a week or so price protection, but any other flag movement does not. NTIs not reset.

NTI threshold increases for red flags (possibly by different amounts depending on ownership), but not for other colours.

Of course, could change any season.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Finisher1 » 18 Sep 2019, 13:32

Stemania wrote:
18 Sep 2019, 13:06
Used to be that red to clear gives a week or so price protection, but any other flag movement does not. NTIs not reset.

NTI threshold increases for red flags (possibly by different amounts depending on ownership), but not for other colours.

Of course, could change any season.
Does this mean that if a red flagged player is say 80% to drop and then goes to yellow flag, he should then drop at next update because the threshold decreases while NTOs are not not reset?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Stemania » 18 Sep 2019, 16:01

Ah, so what I wrote wasn't clear. As far as I recall, NTIs were previously reset whenever a coloured flag goes to clear, but NOT for flag movement between colours.

I don't know for sure the answer about a red 80% going to yellow. My instinct from price change sites in the past (having never seen such jumps) is that they stay at 80%, but then have to reach an additional 20% of the new lower threshold 'rate'. Another reason I say this is that roughly the same procedure holds for multiple rises - if a player is 60% to a 2nd rise (which equates to 120% in 1st rise money) then they don't suddenly jump to 120% after the gameweek deadline as the '1st rise' threshold kicks back in - they stay at about 60%.

But it could also be true that a player who has a red threshold at one point of a week automatically keeps it until the gameweek deadline even if they subsequently move to yellow, would have to ask a price site person (or record some data around a flag change).

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 20 Sep 2019, 09:29

I didn’t see the Sterling price drop coming. Did anyone else get caught out?

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