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Patrician's Crystal Ball

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Patrician
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 01 Mar 2019, 20:56

Patrician wrote:
26 Dec 2018, 22:10
I have been a bit quiet recently, I have being studying why the hell my model was not producing results. Either the model is crap or I have been using it wrong. Two major discoveries.

First I was over estimating goalkeepers and defenders by roughly 1 point per game on average. This was due to not accounting for minus points from goals conceded. Which is a pretty glaring error that has led me to be way too confident in Premium defenders at the expense of the rest of my team.

Second I was using it wrong and under-estimating the fixture effect. Together with a delay in insight from the model this has been leading me to always have yesterdays optimal squad rather than tomorrows.

I think these two points address the mistakes I have been making so I hope to get back on track now. Probably now more of a top 10k season which is a massive shame. Feel like I completely wasted the good start.

I made this post just before this run of results... :D

New improved model.JPG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Ironfist » 01 Mar 2019, 20:59

Wow... kudos.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 01 Mar 2019, 23:18

Patrician wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 20:45
FWDs 29-33

A gameweek late and it will change based on GW32 doubles to come, but...


FWD 29-33.JPG
I was surprised to see Arnie so high.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 02 Mar 2019, 09:44

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 23:18
Patrician wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 20:45
FWDs 29-33

A gameweek late and it will change based on GW32 doubles to come, but...


FWD 29-33.JPG
I was surprised to see Arnie so high.
Is that because the model presumes that he plays? If fit, and with those fixtures, the prediction looks reasonable. Volatility is something that I consider though (FFFix note this and it reminds me). In Arnautovic’s case he has been out more than in the team since GW15 which is why I’d want evidence that he’s overcome his problems before hopping on board

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 09:46

Yes the model is....If fit and starting, so obviously judgement has to come into play with glass legs, and high rotation risks.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by TheRumourMill » 02 Mar 2019, 10:06

Patrician wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 20:40
TheRumourMill wrote:
25 Feb 2019, 12:42
Hi Patrician, wondered if you could shed some light on something. I've been looking at Rashford replacements specifically over the period 28-33 (excluding 32 as I plan to FH then), looking at recent stats (last 6 gw's or so) and also using the predictive tool at: https://fplreview.com/team-planner/#forecast_table

From what I can see in the stats, both in terms of xg+xa, actual goals and assists, and shot counts, SoT, shots in box etc etc, Ashley Barnes appears to be the standout performer over the last 6 gameweeks or so. However, in the predictive tool it has King, Vardy, Arnautovic and Rondon all outscoring Barnes by 7-9 points over the period 28-33. I was wondering why that was? And does your model show a similar discrepancy? Or is it simply explained by the fixtures, with Burnley's actually being far tougher than Leicesters, West Ham's, Newcastle's and Bounemouth's, despite them appearing fairly similar to my judgement?
Sorry I missed this one! When I look at the season as a whole, Rashford has better stats, but more recently Barnes looks almost premium. In fact I brought him in for Rashford, but that was as much to do with wanting to free up budget to upgrade De Bruyne to Haz or Sterling, and to get GW31/33 coverage. Obviously the injury influenced my decision and since Lukaku brought his A game, there may be a bit of roatation between the two, whereas Barnes is nailed on.
No problem at all mate! Yeah that's exactly what I thought on Barnes also, I went with Barnes in the end for the last gameweek too, for similar reasons to what you list.

Thanks for posting the strikers score predictions for the next 6 :-) your model is predicting Barnes and Rondon as far closer than in the other model I looked at, which is much more in keeping with my judgement on the pair of them too. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Its good to see Vardy up there as he was my transfer in for Aubemayang this week, was a bit of a coin toss with Higuain but thought Vardy had marginally better fixtures and stats, and was at less risk of rotation too.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 02 Mar 2019, 10:12

Patrician wrote:
02 Mar 2019, 09:46
Yes the model is....If fit and starting, so obviously judgement has to come into play with glass legs, and high rotation risks.


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That makes sense. Wilson I guess has been adjusted down then because of his fitness issues.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 10:16

Yes, I have adjusted Wilson down as coming back from long term injury. If he starts this week, then I will remove the injury flag and he will be up closer to Aubameyang.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 15:48

KDB out was the right call. Will Hazard(c) do the business?


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 17:24

Patrician wrote:
28 Dec 2018, 15:49
Zaha could be a left field option in GW24, surely Zaha has to come into play at some point and if so it will be then.
Note to self, if you are going to be in the business of making predictions, heed your own advice :lol:

Interesting gameweek. The De Bruyne to Hazard(c) transfer has gone well so far.

1) KdB injury
2) Otherwise I would have captained Pogba for a minus score
3) Rival captained Sterling for a blank

Come on Eden, make my gameweek.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Sutter Kane » 03 Mar 2019, 08:52

Relying on Hazard is like expecting my neighbours to not have a drug-fuelled argument at 4am. Futility.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 03 Mar 2019, 18:23

GW29 Review: 53pts, GWR 738,968, 1,804 pts, OR 6,117, gap 196 pts

Boom. 53 points, which is not bad in the grand scheme of this gameweek, and my TAA trumps rival's Mane once again. Small green arrow and I take the lead in the head to head bet by 6 points. I have been chasing from behind since GW7. Now I can breathe again.

The Hazard(c) overall paid off as otherwise I would have certainly put the armband on Pogba(vc). Just a shame that Haz didn't properly haul as he had a couple of good moments where another goal or assist would have also brought home 3 bonus. In any case, the main purpose of bringing him in was that he is the only big player who covers the blanks and also has a double gameweek. For me he was a no brainer pick for navigating this next run of games without a wild card.

Now my thoughts turn to final preparations for Blank/DGW/Blank. I can make 3 FTs before GW31. Without my wild card the principles are...

1) Only bring in players I want for the rest of the season.
2) Don't sweat not putting out a full team
3) Get a full playing bench, to also tee up a Bench Boost when the time is right

There are a handful of teams who have both a relatively easy finish to the season, and are also likely to be highly motivated with something big to play for (title, CL, avoid relegation). They are SOU, MUN, TOT, MCI, LIV so I want this to be the core of my squad after GW33. I currently have 7 players from these teams (Salah, Aguero, Pogba, Son, Robertson, TAA, Bednarek). I have two more players in highly motivated teams (Hazard and Barnes). Bournmouth have an easy run, are not entirely safe from relegation yet, cover the blanks, and have plenty of good cheap options. I intend to avoid Leicester and West Ham as their fixtures turn nasty for the end of season.

My Shopping List for GW31/33

Here is a list of players I don't have, that are candidates for using my 3FT on...

Prepping for Blanks.JPG
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Last edited by Patrician on 04 Mar 2019, 09:06, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 04 Mar 2019, 09:05

Looks like it is Bournmouth time when I lay it out like that.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by raoul » 04 Mar 2019, 23:27

Patrician wrote:
04 Mar 2019, 09:05
Looks like it is Bournmouth time when I lay it out like that.
Do you see Wilson as safe as of now?

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 04 Mar 2019, 23:36

No, the timing of his return is terrible.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 04 Mar 2019, 23:42

I think I might bring in Boruc for Speroni, and wait and see how the attacking players do in GW30.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 05 Mar 2019, 13:26

I’ve been nosing around for Brooks/Fraser data. Interesting. Thanks

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 10 Mar 2019, 22:28

GW30 Review: 46pts, GWR 3,444,527, 1,850 pts, OR 8,582, gap 220 pts

Yuck, rough week and a red arrow. 19 points on the bench, highest so far this season, so it turns out it was a good bench boost week. Not that I would have predicted that, but definitely annoying having lots of points on the bench when my first XI scored poorly.

I have three big players out of form at the moment, Salah, Pogba and Son. Salah is especially notable, his numbers are way down on his normally exceptional levels. When he was "out of form" in the early part of the season, his numbers were still good. This time that is not the case. One to watch. The overall performance of my team is not good looking back over the last 4 gameweeks. I hope it is just a blip.

The Wilson Fraser double act seems to be back in town.

Rival had Sterling and Mane, so I can just be thankful he went Salah(c), and the damage is not too bad. Got ground to make up again.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by pokeface » 16 Mar 2019, 17:15

I have absolutely lucked out against my main rival this week so far. I took a -4 and fielded 9, he took a -12 and fielded 11 but none of his changes have paid off so it looks like I’ll overtake him this week. I was tempted to goto town on changes also, but no-one stood out as worth taking extra hits for.

Re: Salah I feel I would have moved him on by now but FH next week and a good fixture in 33 feels like there is not much point, I’m confident he’ll get a haul this week or 33.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 16 Mar 2019, 20:10

Same here, rival played his FH this week and it hasn't paid off - he went Rice, Fraser, Wilson, Vardy and Arnie :lol:

Hoping I can now crush him with a strong FH of my own next week, followed by a better GW33 squad.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by pokeface » 17 Mar 2019, 01:16

I will perhaps hold my smugness as he is going to go into GW33 with Vardy, Fraser as a differential. But with Southampton playing GW33 I should be able to field 11. Need a strong DGW32!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 17 Mar 2019, 16:45

Well so much for all my preparations for GW31 to get a half decent team out... Boruc, TAA, Robertson, Salah (c), Haz, Fraser, Barnes, Wilson, Barnes. I expected 50 odd ponts, I got sod all.

Rival's Mane killing me now, taking revenge for my mocking TAA posts earlier in the thread. 30 points gap again, he will play TC next week, I will play FH.

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