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Patrician's Crystal Ball

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 01 Mar 2019, 20:56

Patrician wrote:
26 Dec 2018, 22:10
I have been a bit quiet recently, I have being studying why the hell my model was not producing results. Either the model is crap or I have been using it wrong. Two major discoveries.

First I was over estimating goalkeepers and defenders by roughly 1 point per game on average. This was due to not accounting for minus points from goals conceded. Which is a pretty glaring error that has led me to be way too confident in Premium defenders at the expense of the rest of my team.

Second I was using it wrong and under-estimating the fixture effect. Together with a delay in insight from the model this has been leading me to always have yesterdays optimal squad rather than tomorrows.

I think these two points address the mistakes I have been making so I hope to get back on track now. Probably now more of a top 10k season which is a massive shame. Feel like I completely wasted the good start.

I made this post just before this run of results... :D

New improved model.JPG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Ironfist » 01 Mar 2019, 20:59

Wow... kudos.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 01 Mar 2019, 23:18

Patrician wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 20:45
FWDs 29-33

A gameweek late and it will change based on GW32 doubles to come, but...


FWD 29-33.JPG
I was surprised to see Arnie so high.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 02 Mar 2019, 09:44

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 23:18
Patrician wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 20:45
FWDs 29-33

A gameweek late and it will change based on GW32 doubles to come, but...


FWD 29-33.JPG
I was surprised to see Arnie so high.
Is that because the model presumes that he plays? If fit, and with those fixtures, the prediction looks reasonable. Volatility is something that I consider though (FFFix note this and it reminds me). In Arnautovic’s case he has been out more than in the team since GW15 which is why I’d want evidence that he’s overcome his problems before hopping on board

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 09:46

Yes the model is....If fit and starting, so obviously judgement has to come into play with glass legs, and high rotation risks.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by TheRumourMill » 02 Mar 2019, 10:06

Patrician wrote:
01 Mar 2019, 20:40
TheRumourMill wrote:
25 Feb 2019, 12:42
Hi Patrician, wondered if you could shed some light on something. I've been looking at Rashford replacements specifically over the period 28-33 (excluding 32 as I plan to FH then), looking at recent stats (last 6 gw's or so) and also using the predictive tool at: https://fplreview.com/team-planner/#forecast_table

From what I can see in the stats, both in terms of xg+xa, actual goals and assists, and shot counts, SoT, shots in box etc etc, Ashley Barnes appears to be the standout performer over the last 6 gameweeks or so. However, in the predictive tool it has King, Vardy, Arnautovic and Rondon all outscoring Barnes by 7-9 points over the period 28-33. I was wondering why that was? And does your model show a similar discrepancy? Or is it simply explained by the fixtures, with Burnley's actually being far tougher than Leicesters, West Ham's, Newcastle's and Bounemouth's, despite them appearing fairly similar to my judgement?
Sorry I missed this one! When I look at the season as a whole, Rashford has better stats, but more recently Barnes looks almost premium. In fact I brought him in for Rashford, but that was as much to do with wanting to free up budget to upgrade De Bruyne to Haz or Sterling, and to get GW31/33 coverage. Obviously the injury influenced my decision and since Lukaku brought his A game, there may be a bit of roatation between the two, whereas Barnes is nailed on.
No problem at all mate! Yeah that's exactly what I thought on Barnes also, I went with Barnes in the end for the last gameweek too, for similar reasons to what you list.

Thanks for posting the strikers score predictions for the next 6 :-) your model is predicting Barnes and Rondon as far closer than in the other model I looked at, which is much more in keeping with my judgement on the pair of them too. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Its good to see Vardy up there as he was my transfer in for Aubemayang this week, was a bit of a coin toss with Higuain but thought Vardy had marginally better fixtures and stats, and was at less risk of rotation too.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 02 Mar 2019, 10:12

Patrician wrote:
02 Mar 2019, 09:46
Yes the model is....If fit and starting, so obviously judgement has to come into play with glass legs, and high rotation risks.


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That makes sense. Wilson I guess has been adjusted down then because of his fitness issues.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 10:16

Yes, I have adjusted Wilson down as coming back from long term injury. If he starts this week, then I will remove the injury flag and he will be up closer to Aubameyang.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 15:48

KDB out was the right call. Will Hazard(c) do the business?


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 02 Mar 2019, 17:24

Patrician wrote:
28 Dec 2018, 15:49
Zaha could be a left field option in GW24, surely Zaha has to come into play at some point and if so it will be then.
Note to self, if you are going to be in the business of making predictions, heed your own advice :lol:

Interesting gameweek. The De Bruyne to Hazard(c) transfer has gone well so far.

1) KdB injury
2) Otherwise I would have captained Pogba for a minus score
3) Rival captained Sterling for a blank

Come on Eden, make my gameweek.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Sutter Kane » 03 Mar 2019, 08:52

Relying on Hazard is like expecting my neighbours to not have a drug-fuelled argument at 4am. Futility.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 03 Mar 2019, 18:23

GW29 Review: 53pts, GWR 738,968, 1,804 pts, OR 6,117, gap 196 pts

Boom. 53 points, which is not bad in the grand scheme of this gameweek, and my TAA trumps rival's Mane once again. Small green arrow and I take the lead in the head to head bet by 6 points. I have been chasing from behind since GW7. Now I can breathe again.

The Hazard(c) overall paid off as otherwise I would have certainly put the armband on Pogba(vc). Just a shame that Haz didn't properly haul as he had a couple of good moments where another goal or assist would have also brought home 3 bonus. In any case, the main purpose of bringing him in was that he is the only big player who covers the blanks and also has a double gameweek. For me he was a no brainer pick for navigating this next run of games without a wild card.

Now my thoughts turn to final preparations for Blank/DGW/Blank. I can make 3 FTs before GW31. Without my wild card the principles are...

1) Only bring in players I want for the rest of the season.
2) Don't sweat not putting out a full team
3) Get a full playing bench, to also tee up a Bench Boost when the time is right

There are a handful of teams who have both a relatively easy finish to the season, and are also likely to be highly motivated with something big to play for (title, CL, avoid relegation). They are SOU, MUN, TOT, MCI, LIV so I want this to be the core of my squad after GW33. I currently have 7 players from these teams (Salah, Aguero, Pogba, Son, Robertson, TAA, Bednarek). I have two more players in highly motivated teams (Hazard and Barnes). Bournmouth have an easy run, are not entirely safe from relegation yet, cover the blanks, and have plenty of good cheap options. I intend to avoid Leicester and West Ham as their fixtures turn nasty for the end of season.

My Shopping List for GW31/33

Here is a list of players I don't have, that are candidates for using my 3FT on...

Prepping for Blanks.JPG
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Last edited by Patrician on 04 Mar 2019, 09:06, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 04 Mar 2019, 09:05

Looks like it is Bournmouth time when I lay it out like that.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by raoul » 04 Mar 2019, 23:27

Patrician wrote:
04 Mar 2019, 09:05
Looks like it is Bournmouth time when I lay it out like that.
Do you see Wilson as safe as of now?

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 04 Mar 2019, 23:36

No, the timing of his return is terrible.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 04 Mar 2019, 23:42

I think I might bring in Boruc for Speroni, and wait and see how the attacking players do in GW30.


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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 05 Mar 2019, 13:26

I’ve been nosing around for Brooks/Fraser data. Interesting. Thanks

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 10 Mar 2019, 22:28

GW30 Review: 46pts, GWR 3,444,527, 1,850 pts, OR 8,582, gap 220 pts

Yuck, rough week and a red arrow. 19 points on the bench, highest so far this season, so it turns out it was a good bench boost week. Not that I would have predicted that, but definitely annoying having lots of points on the bench when my first XI scored poorly.

I have three big players out of form at the moment, Salah, Pogba and Son. Salah is especially notable, his numbers are way down on his normally exceptional levels. When he was "out of form" in the early part of the season, his numbers were still good. This time that is not the case. One to watch. The overall performance of my team is not good looking back over the last 4 gameweeks. I hope it is just a blip.

The Wilson Fraser double act seems to be back in town.

Rival had Sterling and Mane, so I can just be thankful he went Salah(c), and the damage is not too bad. Got ground to make up again.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by pokeface » 16 Mar 2019, 17:15

I have absolutely lucked out against my main rival this week so far. I took a -4 and fielded 9, he took a -12 and fielded 11 but none of his changes have paid off so it looks like I’ll overtake him this week. I was tempted to goto town on changes also, but no-one stood out as worth taking extra hits for.

Re: Salah I feel I would have moved him on by now but FH next week and a good fixture in 33 feels like there is not much point, I’m confident he’ll get a haul this week or 33.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 16 Mar 2019, 20:10

Same here, rival played his FH this week and it hasn't paid off - he went Rice, Fraser, Wilson, Vardy and Arnie :lol:

Hoping I can now crush him with a strong FH of my own next week, followed by a better GW33 squad.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by pokeface » 17 Mar 2019, 01:16

I will perhaps hold my smugness as he is going to go into GW33 with Vardy, Fraser as a differential. But with Southampton playing GW33 I should be able to field 11. Need a strong DGW32!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 17 Mar 2019, 16:45

Well so much for all my preparations for GW31 to get a half decent team out... Boruc, TAA, Robertson, Salah (c), Haz, Fraser, Barnes, Wilson, Barnes. I expected 50 odd ponts, I got sod all.

Rival's Mane killing me now, taking revenge for my mocking TAA posts earlier in the thread. 30 points gap again, he will play TC next week, I will play FH.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 29 Mar 2019, 21:56

GW31 Review: 20pts (-4), GWR 3,931,866, 1,866 pts, OR 15,855

Big red arrow, undoing all of my recent good progress in one week. I don't think there was too much wrong with my team, and on another day it could have been much better, but c'est la vie. The silver lining is that my rival used his FH chip and only managed 32 points (gap now 27), so I will take that as a big result and encouragement going into a big FH GW 32.

After much deliberation, this is how I think I will line up. A few out of form picks in Pogba and Son, but I have a feeling both are due a good match, and why not in the next two games?

FH Team.JPG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by fred1266 » 31 Mar 2019, 19:34

Hi Pat

i saw that you pick Bilva as your third MCY asset i was on the verge of picking him myself but opted to go for Dilva, any particular reason you choose Bilva

and you think he a good option for DGW36

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 31 Mar 2019, 22:41

Hi Fred, I was quite torn between Bilva and Dilva. My model forecasts Dilva slightly favourably over Bilva when they both play 90, but I consider Bilva to be a safer pick as a Pep favorite this season, and he is quite a bit cheaper. Not easy games for City though in the next DGW, but I think three City would be wise for the run in.

Having said that, none of my other picks came off so well, it was always likely that one of my XI would get in the points! So could be just lucky dip :lol:

Annoyingly, for quite bit of the week I had three Palace defenders including PvA, probably should have stuck to that plan. This seems to be another DGW which proves that for the top teams you can't count on two games. Son, Hazard, Lindelof (should have listened on that one) already, suspect Aguero and maybe Sterling too might miss the second.

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by fred1266 » 01 Apr 2019, 16:11

ok thanks

i really hoping Hazard and Pogba show up, yea aguero being rested is quite frustrated but still hoping he plays since Jesus is scoring at the momment

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by pokeface » 01 Apr 2019, 20:43

Annoyingly I had picked PVA but felt he wasn’t worth the price above the other Palace defenders, but I think I ended up with the spare budget in the bank. Oh well. Not having a bad week anyway!

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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 17 Apr 2019, 14:04

In GW30 I was at rank 8,582, but no Wild Card or TC for the DGW/Blank phase of the season. It will be interesting to see where I sit after GW 35 as I have played this phase very differently to normal with more of a focus on the whole of the remainder of the season. The goal was to come out of the phase without having lost ground and with a team good for the run in.

GW32 Review: 88pts, GWR 1,063,893, 1,954 pts, OR 16,866

Free Hit for the first double gameweek was not bad but not great, small red arrow. I got off to a flying start with Aguero and Bernado Silva, then an atrocious run until Hazard and Son brought my score up to respectable levels. Remind me never to trust a Chelsea forward again. Morata earlier in the season and Higuain for the DGW. Rubbish.

GW33 Review: 59pts, GWR 694,029, 2,013 pts, OR 18,325

Quite a good gameweek rank, but a red arrow anyway.Could have been a great week if Wilson had scored his big chance in injury time from a Fraser pass. Armband was on Hazard and those 32 points were more than half my gameweek total.

GW34 Review: 75pts, GWR 660,282, 2,088 pts, OR 9,955

I managed to avoid the Brighton trap (mostly, I did bring in Dunk), and benefited nicely from Pogba, Wilson and the Liverpool cleanie. The transfer that didn't pay off was Fraser to Son, but I still think that was the right move despite hindsight begging to differ. Big green arrow and back into the top 10k. I like how my team is set up for the last few games of the season. Plan is to bring in a couple more doublers for GW35 for a single hit, that will give me 8 doublers.

GW 34.JPG
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 17 Apr 2019, 14:13

My rival is now 16 points ahead and his team is...

Rival GW34.JPG

Key differences are

One fewer DGW players (I think he has 1 FT)
His Mane vs My Pogba
His Sterling vs my Salah
His Firmino vs my Aguero
His Fraser, my TAA

It is amazing that we remain so close considering we have had very different sides, structure and personel, throughout the season. Last season he beat me by 6 points! Going to the wire again this season.
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Re: Patrician's Crystal Ball

Post by Patrician » 17 Apr 2019, 14:22

Forecast GW35-GW38

This is my forecast table for the remainder of the season. Highest expected points on the left.

Season End.JPG

I have 8 out of these 15, including 4 of the top 5.
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