Baganboy’s 38-week FPL journal

[baganboy]

Lost Alonso already, , for TAA, this GW

[baganboy]

One obvious playing error is getting in Cancelo for Alonso instead of Rudiger. I just kicked a transfer down the road. The point swing is not much, though. 6 odd points.
A minor one - The third midfielder hokey-cokey is also something I have played poorly. This perhaps is not the season for that. That problem would be gone though, soon. That becomes either Foden or Son, perma-slotted in the team.
Will discover the others as I go along.

Lesson, spend less time on twitter.

on GW 4 and GW 5 - I was passive in my transfers. In a good position, I held my hand.
However, while the GW5 Tsimikas-> Robertson move worked out horribly - an 11 point swing, it is a move I will do again, if the situation arises.
Perhaps, though, the right move was to play the WC earlier. GW4 was a tough sell - since 1-2-3 went well. But GW5, a GW in advance, was the right play.

[baganboy]

While these seem minor errors - I stand by my 300-point theory. The key is to not let these minor errors add up.
If it is just variance that prevents a good GW or even a good season, I can live with it. I can live with an average season where I didn't really play poorly.

Will keep updating this journal.

[Smurphy Paw]

Welcome back to your journal. Always an interesting read

[baganboy]

Thanks SP. Glad. Will try to be more regular.
I think I have had my fill of Twitter

[Smurphy Paw]

Thanks SP. Glad. Will try to be more regular.
I think I have had my fill of Twitter

I now regularly see your Twitter pop up on my timeline. As I also use it for work I usually don’t comment on FPL stuff. But I have to say that, via you, I love seeing so many interesting posts from your part of the world.

I hope that you and family are well, BB. Best wishes

[baganboy]

Thanks a lot, SP, for that comment! Appreciated greatly! And wish the best to you and your near and dear ones too.

[blahblah]

Thanks SP. Glad. Will try to be more regular.
I think I have had my fill of Twitter

Are you Stevieste on disguise?

[baganboy]

Stevie needs no disguises. I might, though

[baganboy]

One obvious playing error is getting in Cancelo for Alonso instead of Rudiger. I just kicked a transfer down the road. The point swing is not much, though. 6 odd points.
A minor one - The third midfielder hokey-cokey is also something I have played poorly. This perhaps is not the season for that. That problem would be gone though, soon. That becomes either Foden or Son, perma-slotted in the team.
Will discover the others as I go along.

Lesson, spend less time on twitter.

on GW 4 and GW 5 - I was passive in my transfers. In a good position, I held my hand.
However, while the GW5 Tsimikas-> Robertson move worked out horribly - an 11 point swing, it is a move I will do again, if the situation arises.
Perhaps, though, the right move was to play the WC earlier. GW4 was a tough sell - since 1-2-3 went well. But GW5, a GW in advance, was the right play.

The one error leading to a substantial point-swing was not getting in Greenwood at the start of the season. It was part of the thinking process - but I reckoned i was just kicking a transfer down the road. Which I would have, sure, but it would still have been a good move considering 1) the wildcard and 2) Rashford's injury at the start of the season.

[baganboy]

Up To GW 10 - keeping Tabs.

GW10.JPG

Despite all the poor scores, I am not disliking my team. Holding on....
One change for next week, James in and Laporte out.

This has been the season update so far. Keeping tabs,

Up To GW10.JPG

[baganboy]

Just a ramble - a TL;DR is well deserved. But where else can I ramble about FPL anyway, but for my blog?

I feel that cricket, and following that sport with a passion has subconsciously influenced my FPL playing immensely. Perhaps unconsciously, I have often tried to think of every season as a kind of a 50-over match broken down into two innings.
(An early apology to the non-cricket followers in the group - for them, this chat will be seriously boring).

First Innings: I see the first 23-24 odd gameweeks right up to the end of the Winter congestion as the first innings.

Getting a competitive score on board is key. It’s fabulous if one is in the top 10K or top 100 or whatever early up. But suppose one isn’t? Sometimes, a good first 15 overs (i.e. first 10 gameweeks) is not possible - a rash shot, a rush of blood, a great bowling display from the opposition front line - in that case, it becomes key to consolidate after that jolt, and make sure that one’s team has some kind of a target to bowl to in the second innings.
One of my favourite cricket teams, Sri Lanka circa mid-late 1990s, used to have Roshan Mahanama, a steady, sedate batsman coming in at #7, to give stability to their team if there were to be a top-order collapse. This allowed the top-order blasters, Jayasuriya, Kaluwitharana and Gurusinha to go hammer-and-tongs - because of the additional backup in case of a collapse. Even the great Aravinda De Silva, their best batsman, was always able to play freely, knowing that after him, there are three proper batsmen - Ranatunga, Tillekeratne and Mahanama. This was very evident in their semifinal victory against us i.e. India. The top 3 scored merely 2 runs among them - but De Silva played a blinder, and with stability from the next 3, they managed a very competitive (in those days) 251, a score we could not vanquish. This was the first cricket match I watched from the stadium (I was a spotty teen then), and this is etched in my memory.
Consolidation, in FPL terms, is to take a 500K rank after GW 10 or so, and build it up to the range of 100K odd at the very least, playing carefully and avoiding any mistake. Of course, one still has to hope for positive variance to fall one’s way - but reducing the effects of negative variance should also be a factor. This is something I have experienced in both of my very-good seasons, in both instances I did not have a good start (outside a million after GW9 in 19-20) , and in both cases, by January, I had climbed into the double-digit-thousands.

Of course, if one is in the exalted ranks after top 10K, the paradigms would be different. This is something that the current English ODI squad are absolute masters of. Assuming Jason Roy and Alex Hales (big miss) or Jonny Bairstow have gone hammer-and-tongs, and it has worked out, what does the England team do? Roy and Bairstow do not slow down, because that is not their game. But once a wicket has fallen, at #3, the best English batsman, Joe Root comes in. Root bats well within himself in his initial overs - while the not-out batsman among Roy and Bairstow continues to run roughshod from the other end. What England is doing here is testing out the target hypothesis. Batting first in an ODI match is also called ‘batting blind’- you do not know what would be a winning target - but with a good start, one must consider batting their opposition numbers out of the game in the first innings itself. With a rampant Jason Roy and a cultured yet not-stodgy Joe Root, England is testing the hypothesis of the winning score, both in terms of what the opponent can possibly score, and what is the maximum score the English themselves should aim at. That is the purpose of the middle overs. And you have anyway set the platform for the middle-and-lower-middle-order blasters, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes and the delightful Jos Buttler.
From an FPL term, what is the significance? Again, the middle overs are a time to consolidate - but from a position of strength. What has got you here will get you there, sure - let Roy and Bairstow go hammer and tongs for now. But what happens when you have a couple of poor gameweeks? What happens when a new template starts to emerge - and new quasi-essential players come to the fore? Here, the flexibility to adjust quickly to the changed realities is key. Realising which players will be the consistent point-scorers going forward (the Chilwells, say) and which ones are just flashes-in-the-pan (the Hwangs, until further evidence) is key. Stats come in handy, as well as an understanding of the going-ons within individual clubs. However, sitting back on one’s early-season laurels is not an option - if you are at 10K after 10GWs, and finish at the same 10K end-season, you will not be happy in hindsight. 10K is an excellent rank, but top 100 is almost a once-in-a-lifetime one.
Again, I know it the hard way - the only time I was at ~10K early up, I played very passively and ended up at 6K odd at the end of the season. It was very chastening, I dropped off the radar at the end of the season, and did not play the next season. In my defence, that FPL season of mine predates this excellent modern-day England ODI team, haha.


The Second Innings: Post the Christmas Congestion - Mid Jan.

Here, one is chasing a target. One is not playing blind anymore -- there is a target (say 200 points from #1, 60 points from #10K), and it is all about chasing the target down.
I think I have spoken here about the MS Dhoni way of chasing - staying in touch during the middle, taking the game deep, making incremental gains as we move along. This was never more evident than in India’s second world cup win in 2011. Sri Lanka, batting first in the finals had set up a very stiff target of 277. India, starting off, had lost the legendary opening partnership of Tendulkar and Sehwag. Gautam Gambhir stepped in, and steadied the ship with a young, callow Virat Kohli. After Kohli was dismissed, MS Dhoni, the captain promoted himself. The next 20 overs saw an exhibition of controlled, calculated paring down of a target. Incremental gains were made over-after-over - good bowling was given the respect but the scoreboard ticked along, minor risks were taken to keep the asking rate in control, and loose bowling was punished. No hit and hope, no Hail Mary biffing, no undue aggression - it was a simple case of sticking to the process. When Gambhir was eventually dismissed, the match was almost done. And it was indeed closed out with 10 balls to spare, with a flourish at last, a sumptuous six from the blade of the captain. And by then, he had earned that signature moment.
And this is the MS Dhoni way of playing the last 14-odd gameweeks. Especially in the second half of the season, there will be opportunities to steal a march and make incremental gains. Playing 18 individual player instances rather than 14 for the average FPL player in double gameweeks; maybe using the chips really well, or in the right combinations. This requires focus and planning. One might still fall prey to negative variance - one can never account for that. But failing to plan is the same as planning to fail. There might be a need to do a hit-and-hope in the last 2-3 gameweeks, but may they be to jump to 10K from 20K, rather than to 100K from 250K.



Why is this rubbish TL:DR relevant to me at all? I rationalize that it’s because in cricket, a team would never be able to hit six sixes in every over while setting a target - it is impossible. Similarly, in a game such as FPL, it is impossible to be ahead of the variance every single time - your target is not to have every player you field every gameweek to have a return - every defender to have a clean sheet and every attacker to get an attacking return. It’s just to make sure you are ahead of the variance often enough to win it, or if not win it (you probably won’t), get as close to it as possible.

[Redsnout]

Good to see you in your new green and maroon. I had to google to see if there was a change in the ownership of Bagan.

Interesting cricket analogy. Enjoyed reading that cricket ramble. Btw, that SL-96 was one hell of a team. Though you were making a different comparison, I do wonder whether you have too many Mahanama's and Ranatunga's in your team at the moment and missing a couple of Jayasuriya's. Most of your choices are pretty solid long term options. But with a couple of 4.5m mids in your squad, I think you may be missing out a few powerplay hitters, considering most of our openers (strikers) are struggling at the moment.

[baganboy]

Excellent point. Makes a lot of sense.
Actually, the major mistake in my play, this year, has been going into the shell once Jayasuriya and Kalu had been dismissed (i.e. after the first 4 GWs). But this will be overcome, or attempted at any rate - you are right. Incremental gains....

[SG_8]

Great writeup .

[baganboy]

Thanks much, SG_8

[baganboy]

Beating my own drum alert! A short clip from a chat I had with Lateriser and Zophar was featured in the official FPL-India Twitter today. Link below.

Capture0000.JPG

https://twitter.com/PLforIndia/status/1 ... 5096509446

[Smurphy Paw]

Love it

[baganboy]

Thanks much, SP !

[FranckKessie]

Hi BB,
Just wanted to say lovely little chat you had on PLforIndia. Also good fun to be able to put a face and voice on a FISO-companion

[chiplesschaps]

Nice write up. Sri Lanka under Dav Whatmore revolutionized ODI cricket during the '96 World Cup

While there are many similarities, I think where FPL differs slightly is we don't really know our opponents and their likely strategies.

For instance in cricket it is easier to plan a run chase around the opposition's bowling strength. Play out the Malingas/Muralis and target the Pereras/Kulasekaras.

While in FPL things are not as clear cut isn't it? One could always argue EO could be a useful indicator, but then I don't consider it enough in my decision making...much to my own detriment (GW9 Havertz Captainer)

[baganboy]

Hi BB,
Just wanted to say lovely little chat you had on PLforIndia. Also good fun to be able to put a face and voice on a FISO-companion

Thanks much, FranckKessie !

[baganboy]

Nice write up. Sri Lanka under Dav Whatmore revolutionized ODI cricket during the '96 World Cup

While there are many similarities, I think where FPL differs slightly is we don't really know our opponents and their likely strategies.

For instance in cricket it is easier to plan a run chase around the opposition's bowling strength. Play out the Malingas/Muralis and target the Pereras/Kulasekaras.

While in FPL things are not as clear cut isn't it? One could always argue EO could be a useful indicator, but then I don't consider it enough in my decision making...much to my own detriment (GW9 Havertz Captainer)

Yes, agree with you. It's not a direct correlation - especially since as an FPL manager, you are not an influencer to the game in any way.
This is just about how I plan the season. Perhaps not the best way of playing too, in fact that's the big complaint about the middle overs in ODIs in general, they are basically snoozefests, bereft of drama, in most cases. I do feel that staying awake and alert and careful in the middle stages could be one of the key factors to having a good season.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Beating my own drum alert! A short clip from a chat I had with Lateriser and Zophar was featured in the official FPL-India Twitter today. Link below.

Lovely stuff! Your positivity is infectious. I hope to hear a lot more from this @baganboyFPL Twitter influencer chap.

[baganboy]

Beating my own drum alert! A short clip from a chat I had with Lateriser and Zophar was featured in the official FPL-India Twitter today. Link below.

Lovely stuff! Your positivity is infectious. I hope to hear a lot more from this @baganboyFPL Twitter influencer chap.

Thanks so much, PB.
I am terrified of Twitter, really. It fries my brain. But is addictive. Trying to get myself away from it...

[wahine]

Enjoyed that too BB, thanks for posting.

[blahblah]

Fat Bstrd

[From4corners]

Enjoyed that too BB, thanks for posting.

As did I, very much so. Cheers!

[baganboy]

Enjoyed that too BB, thanks for posting.

Thanks much, Wahine!

[baganboy]

Enjoyed that too BB, thanks for posting.

As did I, very much so. Cheers!

Thanks much, F4C