R_NZ FPL Blog

[Ruth_NZ]

I've been reading your posts from time to time and all I can say is - I've never seen so many things go against someone's team. In hindsight you can determine the mistakes but you were up against it from early on.

Nice of you to say so.

Misfortune is something you can do nothing about - or very little about. You can mitigate the effects by sticking close to the template but that's not my game. While having a moan is a way to let off steam, it doesn't help any in the long run so in doing the lessons learned I am focusing on my errors, which are the things I can do something about for next season. Variance may still defeat me (or it may help me) but if I am playing the game as well as I can then I can live with that.

[Ruth_NZ]

Lessons Learned
Part 2: Squad/Team Structure continued

So, the other aspect to look at is GKs. The last post covered my main structural error, namely the anti-value balance of investment between forwards and defence/midfield. In most other ways I am content with how I managed squad structure; the nominal bench was always relatively cheap and efficiency was therefore maintained fairly well. Beyond that you are down to individual player selections and that's not a structural matter other than when your structure channels you down one road rather than another. I may look at the thorny issue of player selection but that will be another lessons learned topic and doesn't belong here.

I did find Patrician's comments about the 7-9m 'dead zone' to be interesting but it does of course depend on the price/performance landscape of any particular season. This season we have had a number of very good midfield options in the 6-7m range - Saka, Raphinha, Bowen, Ward-Prowse, Gallagher - and they have all been reliable starters, even key players for their teams. In that context, the rotation risk with the likes of Foden, Mahrez, Havertz and even Jota begins to make them relatively less attractive. But the pricing may well not be the same next season. Saka, Bowen, Gallagher and JWP (and Kulusevski) will all certainly cost more next time and that will change the balance again. But this is not a matter for now.

GKs

I wrote a little game theory post about GKs earlier this season (can be found here) and I'd stand by that appraisal. Here is a summary of what I have actually done, and why, and how well it worked.

GW1-4 DDG, Sanchez (9.5m). Managed to select the 'wrong' one of two 50% of the time. The reason for the expensive pair was the GW1 BB.
GW5-20 DDG, Gunn (9.0m). Spend was OK but United let me down. Last season, OGS was very pragmatic against the top teams and United had 5 CSs in 6 games against their closest rivals. A lot were 0-0 draws but those points were what got United 2nd place. This season they weren't able to go anywhere near to repeating that trick. Anyway, structurally this was OK but Ramsdale would have been better in practise.
GW21-25 DDG, Pickford (10m). Managed to select the 'wrong' one of two 40% of the time but the question mark here is the heavy expenditure. The reason was Pickford's DGW21 (which melted away like spring snow) and the fact that Everton had a lot of games to re-schedule. Unfortunately for me, two of those are still in hand and I have held Pickford all that time awaiting a payoff that hasn't transpired.
GW26-34 Ramsdale, Pickford (10m). Selected the 'wrong' one only 22% of the time but that was as much down to Everton's inability to keep a CS as anything else. Having this amount invested in GKs from GW21 has been an invisible drag factor; never critical enough to take a hit to address it but always squeezing my budget and creating pressure.

So, what is the lesson to learn here? Well, first of all it is going to make me reconsider the BB in GW1. There are good reasons for it but the fact that you start with a squad that's out of shape is perhaps more debilitating than one might realise. If we have a 'free' wildcard (or unlimited transfers) between GW16 & 17 next season then GW17 might be an alternative. This season there have been so many small DGWs that there have been multiple opportunities for an opportunistic BB but that won't be the same next season.

The biggest structural concern is the 10m spend from GW21 onwards. I can clearly see why I did it and believe that I have been rather unlucky with how things have fallen out with Everton in general. The problem was that once in that arrangement, there was never a FT spare or a sufficiently powerful reason to change Pickford out. Perhaps it would have been better to go with Pickford, 4.0 in GW21; that would have produced a structural discipline to prevent the situation drifting on for so long.

General Observations

One thing I noticed when researching an earlier post was how well GKs - and specifically premium GKs - are doing on value this season. There are 4 GKs in the top 10 - Allison, Lloris, Sa, Ramsdale. Two of those would have to be considered premium GKs and a quick calculation tells me that had I gone with Allison, 4.0 from GW21 it would have netted me 79 points as compared to the 50 points I actually achieved with a similar spend. It always used to be that premium GKs were poor value but this season it hasn't panned out that way. So that's another conventional wisdom under question. It's something to bear in mind for next season anyway.

[maanche]

Nice of you to say so.

Misfortune is something you can do nothing about - or very little about. You can mitigate the effects by sticking close to the template but that's not my game. While having a moan is a way to let off steam, it doesn't help any in the long run so in doing the lessons learned I am focusing on my errors, which are the things I can do something about for next season. Variance may still defeat me (or it may help me) but if I am playing the game as well as I can then I can live with that.

I've had a few dubious not to say awful decisions but it's really my first full season. Anyways, apart from the ones which can happen to anyone ( like captaining Dennis for a double negative ), I pulled my WC1 too soon so my team was not set up properly. In my mind at least, BB seemed like a chip which will force me to make mistakes trying to bring in players especially for it or by setting up a Wildcard in order to use the Bench boost rather then choosing the best players for my team structure. So, I decided I will use BB as a WC ( make several transfers and nullify the cost with the chip ). Of course, I had ZERO on my bench ( GW13 ) as Tottenham game was delayed by bad weather I believe, Foster was benched after having played the last 8 or 9 games and Livramento had Liverpool anyways but he had zero as well. Wasted a chip and took a -24 on top. I do believe I'll bench boost the same way in the future if needed or simply save the chip for the last big DGW or even GW38 to try and make gains if needed but this cost me 50 points potentially in one go and I'd be round about 5k or a bit lower atm with those points.

[Ruth_NZ]

GW35

Was very close to a Wood Dennis transfer because I don't see a little Watford flurry over the next few games as being out of the question and they do have a nice DGW36 on paper. But it would give me a benching dilemma this week and make Salah a -4 in GW36 at the same time so the decision is to save FT. That leaves my team looking like this for GW35:

Ramsdale
Cancelo VVD Robertson
Saka(v) Bruno Ramsey Foden Son(c)
Weghorst Werner
Pickford Davies Wood Schär + 0.1m

Not a lot on the bench, especially considering Robertson and Foden could be rested but Davies is a good S1 and is a bit unlucky not to make the team anyway. Bruno gets another week in which to disappoint before the switch to either Salah, KDB or Mané in GW36. Captain is Son and for once I feel fairly confident about that choice this week.

GL all.

[Ruth_NZ]

Lessons Learned
Part 3: Player Selection

Introduction

I saw an article on FFS yesterday which said (paraphrase) "most teams will have a strong contingent of DGW players for DGW36 so it now becomes a matter of making sure you have the right ones".

I found that to be a bit bewildering to be honest. OK, if what is meant is that you don't really want Wolves players with che MCI and you may not particularly favour Villa players with bur LIV then OK, that's maybe understandable. But the article was seeming to imply more than that - do you have the 'right' Liverpool, City, Chelsea, Arsenal players - and to be suggesting that taking a couple hits to adjust would be worthwhile.

To me, that is both arrogant and stupid at the same time. What is stupid is to imagine that it is possible to be that precise about which players will score the most points in one GW, even if it's a DGW. I well remember a DGW a few seasons back when Eden Hazard was the runaway leader of the FFS captaincy poll (and would have had an EO of 160%+ in today's terms) and scored 2+3=5 points. It's just one example but these things can easily happen. And what is arrogant is to assume that you (or whatever algorithm you rely on) can be so sure of yourself as to talk with such confidence about the "right" players.

Yes, you can maybe say that Player A has a 60% chance (say) of outscoring Player B. But that doesn't by any means make it worthwhile to spend 4 points switching to Player A from Player B. Does it? I can see it when you are switching a SGW player out for a DGW player, though even then you have to factor in the weeks that follow. But to switch between two DGW players, maybe even from the same team, on the strength of one GW?

This is where I have to question my thinking about player selection. OK, this has been an unique season and has favoured reactive play, that was written about in an earlier post. But in writing what I just have about being bewildered, I am actually questioning my own viewpoint. Maybe I have it all wrong. Maybe the reactive chasing of upsides is now the META strategy in FPL. I don't know. It has been this season but how much has that had to do with an unusual set of circumstances and how valid will it be next time around?

So, this is a kind of introduction to the next part of my lessons learned appraisal, where I will attempt to tackle the thorny issue of player selection. This part won't only be based on my own performance this season but will be a more broad enquiry because it's something I have never felt that good at. It seems to me that I have got a lot of my assessments right this season but have signally failed to translate that into having the right players at the right time in FPL. And that's what I am going to try to take a look at next. Am I looking at the right data in the right way? That will be the question.

[Ruth_NZ]

DGW36 Transfers?

Saving the FT in GW35 was a good decision; I'm glad to have resisted Wood Dennis because it would have created problems going into GW36 and Watford look like they are going down "not with a bang but a whimper". Even Bruno contributed something in GW35 and for once I had a captaincy success. Whoop-de-doo!

Transfer plans are now fairly self-evident as a result of having 2 FTs but the question is whether to add a third move for a hit. Squad as it stands:

Ramsdale Pickford
Cancelo Schär VVD Davies Robertson
Saka Bruno Ramsey Foden Son
Wood Weghorse Werner
2 FTs + 0.1m

Wood Gelhardt is already done, leaving 2m in the bank, and at last I have a properly structured squad (apart from the GK pair). Shame it only took me 36 weeks to get there. Wood has been a complete fiasco since entering my team for a hit in GW33, managing 4 points doubled as my DGW33 captain and then getting dropped and losing me 0.2m through unexpected price drops (2 in 2 days). Seemed like a good idea at the time but I have brought in a fair few players that I didn't really fancy this season (Bruno was another recent one) and deserve to pay the price.

There's a Poker expression called being on tilt, where a series of bad beats or bad hands causes frustration and impaired judgement. The incessant sequence of DGWs this season has actually tilted quite a few managers at times, including me. You underplay one and it costs you so you go all-in on the next one, which turns out to be a damp squib and so on it goes. Problem is, with 13 DGWs in 17 weeks, that chain has been never-ending and recovering perspective isn't easy to do when you are in the middle of it all.

Anyway, Wood is now gone and good riddance. The 2m will be used to upgrade Bruno and I am fairly well set on it being Salah that comes in. I have looked at alternatives (Mané, KDB) but I honestly think Salah is the best addition and he will be my captain in DGW36; he simply has better underlying stats than Mané and he has just had the rest I was expecting. So I think he'll now start every game with the CL being essentially out of the way. As for KDB, he is carrying a problem for which he needed stitches and while I see him to be a perfectly good pick, he's a bit behind Salah. Plus I have a tweak in mind that wouldn't work if KDB were in my team.

That tweak is Werner Jesus for a hit. The nice thing about it would be to have 3 City and 3 Liverpool in GW36 & GW38 (GW37 will be FH for me). That looks right because they have everything to play for, whereas Chelsea are running on fumes as I said a couple weeks ago. With 2 Arsenal and 2 Spurs, I'd have the 4th-place race covered too (and am looking at a Son captaincy in GW38 if the race is still alive). It's an iffy hit because Werner also has a DGW36 but I think Pep wants the incision that a proper CF gives him and Jesus has hit form at a good time, so perhaps it's a worthwhile last hit of the season.

So, definitely Wood Gelhardt, probably Bruno Salah and likely Werner Jesus for a -4. That's what's in my mind. As always, any (constructive) comments or thoughts are welcome.

[Ruth_NZ]

Werner v Jesus v Richarlison

So, just to be clear, if it weren't for the fact of FH37 I would be doing Werner Richarlison (-4) this week. GW37 favours Everton with 2 very winnable home games against teams that don't do deep defence and have nothing much to play for but my planned FH makes that irrelevant. So it's quite a tricky decision.

1. Stats

Over the last 5 PL games:

Werner - Average mins per game 78; xG 3.3; xA 0.1; xGI per game 0.68
Jesus - Average mins per game 71; xG 3.6; xA 2.0; xGI per game 1.12
Richarlison - Average mins per game 90; xG 3.4; xA 0.2; xGI per game 0.72

It should be noted that Richarlison has had 2 penalties and Jesus 1 in that period, inflating their xG numbers.

2. Gametime Projection

Werner - has been given a run in the team but his numbers have been tailing off (much of his recent xG came in the 6-0 win over Southampton a few weeks back). It really wouldn't take much to imagine Pulisic or Ziyech getting a start and there's also the impending FA Cup Final to factor in. This is one reason why I'm considering taking a hit to remove him before a DGW.
Jesus - very hard to assess after the Madrid defeat in which Jesus played 78 minutes. It was notable that when City were struggling to get their rhythm in the first half, Pep switched Jesus wide with Foden false #9 and kept it that way thereafter. Jesus was OK in the game but he hasn't made himself undroppable and I somewhat doubt he will start both games in DGW36. Could easily be wrong, though; it's never easy to predict what Pep will do.
Richarlison - pretty much certain to play 90 every game unless injured. DCL is fit again, however, and that could push Richarlison into a wide role where he is less effective for FPL purposes. My guess is that Lampard will be reluctant to break a winning formula.

3. Fixtures

Ignoring GW37 (which is irrelevant for me) we have:

Werner - WOL/lee WAT. Could hardly be better on paper.
Jesus - NEW/wol AVL. Also pretty good on paper and it has to be borne in mind that this is City's season on the line now, they need to win their last 4 games or risk a trophyless season. I think they will bounce back strong but will that be with Jesus in the team?
Richarlison - lei/wat ars. All away (the 2 strong home games are GW37) but GW36 actually looks pretty great to me - Leicester playing 3 days after a European SF and with little to go for in the PL and then Watford who are essentially already relegated and with a manager who is about to leave and looks like he doesn't quite know where he is anyway. What a disaster that appointment was.

4. Assessment

Price plays a small part here and my ranking of the three is tentatively as follows:

1. Richarlison: not a lot in it over Jesus but the price differential maybe swings it as it will increase my transfer options in GW38. The guaranteed gametime, the fact that Everton have everything to play for and the evidence that Richarlison is a streaky player on a hot streak are also pluses.
2. Jesus: I'm somewhat surprised to be ranking him #2 as I fully expected him to be #1. The events of last night create uncertainty, both in terms of what team Pep will pick on Sunday and in terms of the fact that Jesus did not have an impressive game in Madrid. On the other hand, his recent xGi suggests that he has the highest ceiling of the three, perhaps.
3. Werner: at another time he could easily be #1 but I feel that Chelsea are staggering towards the end of the season now and also suspect that Werner may be at the end of his run of starts.

What this all says is that I will probably replace Werner for a hit. Whether it will be Richarlison or Jesus to come in may need to wait on press conferences but any thoughts will be welcome.

All stats courtesy fbref.com.

[blahblah]

Yep to your top 2. I already have Jesus and looking to bring in Rich, but I haven't found anything recent on Flaregate

[Ruth_NZ]

Yep to your top 2. I already have Jesus and looking to bring in Rich, but I haven't found anything recent on Flaregate.

Looks like the FA have kicked the can down the road pending the Police investigation but as reports indicate the flare was thrown away from the crowd, not into it, chances are that it will only be a fine anyway.

Richarlison would be a fairly easy switch if it weren't for FH37 but that changes the calculation a fair bit for me. I do like Everton's GW36 fixtures though, even though they are away. Jesus I'm not so sure about right now but that's as much to do with City's misfortune last night as anything else.

[blahblah]

I'm looking to FH in 37 too, and had talked myself into ignoring that those 3 are away matches

There must be a deadline for Rich, as they have to leave time for an appeal; and I agree about them avoiding making a decision with the police involvement.

So I think I'm all systems go, subject to fitness.

[Joccki_10]

Did you ever consider Nketiah instead of Gelhardt?

[Ruth_NZ]

Did you ever consider Nketiah instead of Gelhardt?

Yes. Too expensive to enable Bruno Salah and I also doubt he will start twice this week.

Sorry to hear about your misfortune, you back in Holland now?

[blahblah]

Did you ever consider Nketiah instead of Gelhardt?

Yes. Too expensive to enable Bruno Salah and I also doubt he will start twice this week.

Sorry to hear about your misfortune, you back in Holland now?

Salah has (genuinely) looked lethargic etc, so why lol to go to him? If Lpool slip up in the Prem, he might not get many minutes at all, do he is less stale for the Finals?

@Joccki: I hope you are ok etc

[Ruth_NZ]

Hasn't looked lethargic when I have seen them play. Underlying numbers are clearly better than the alternatives and he's the most likely Liverpool player to get 2+ attacking scores in a game.

[Bobby Fetta]

I agree with your assessment Ruth. My only caveat is that gw38 feels like a match that Chelsea could score 6, 7 or 8 goals in. My anecdotal recollection is of relegated teams playing away frequently getting absolutely hammered on the last day. Watford seem like prime candidates for this. Its making me hesitate in selling Havertz. The flipside of course is the risk of significant rotation for the midweek gw36 fixture, given the FA Cup.

I expect Chelsea's attitude in gw38 will depend on how the FA Cup goes - if they win, I can imagine a triumphant carnival atmosphere. If they lose, they just want the season over as quickly as possible and its a damp squib for both teams.

Maybe I'm overthinking this and should just get the players going for the title with something to play for

[blahblah]

Hasn't looked lethargic when I have seen them play. Underlying numbers are clearly better than the alternatives and he's the most likely Liverpool player to get 2+ attacking scores in a game.

Obviously I'm a lil biased

[TheRumourMill]

I'd go for Richarlison this week Ruth out of the 3 mentioned, despite the FH in 37. Mahrez is a big threat to Jesus on the right side and although Jesus could play as number 9, so could Foden or Sterling. With Richarlison you can imaging he plays 90 twice and has penalties too, and is a talisman like player for everton with high goal involvement, whereas at City it is spread out more.

Chelsea in GW38 is interesting. I agree it could be a thrashing, but could also see a run out for the Chelsea academy kids if top 4 is sown up.

[Ruth_NZ]

I'd go for Richarlison this week Ruth out of the 3 mentioned, despite the FH in 37. Mahrez is a big threat to Jesus on the right side and although Jesus could play as number 9, so could Foden or Sterling.

Thanks. The situation is now compounded by the injury to Ramsey, who was going to be in my team. Either he needs replacing or Weghorst will need to come in and that's not ideal. So, probably Ramsey Gordon (-4).

Weghorst Nketiah and bench Ramsey would be an alternative but I expect Lacazette to start the NLD. Either way, that means replacing Werner would become a -8 and while each hit is independent I really don't fancy going into GW36 8 points in debit.

Will just have to wait on the press conferences I guess. Maybe I'll take my chances and stick with Werner. If not I'll replace Werner and play Weghorst.

As for Jesus, he has been playing #9 a lot recently, that's the whole point really. The decision also relates to whether KDB is fit. Everyone seems to assume so but I have considerable doubt about that and if he isn't, Jesus almost certainly starts #9.

[TheRumourMill]

I'd go for Richarlison this week Ruth out of the 3 mentioned, despite the FH in 37. Mahrez is a big threat to Jesus on the right side and although Jesus could play as number 9, so could Foden or Sterling.

Thanks. The situation is now compounded by the injury to Ramsey, who was going to be in my team. Either he needs replacing or Weghorst will need to come in and that's not ideal. So, probably Ramsey Gordon (-4).

Weghorst Nketiah and bench Ramsey would be an alternative but I expect Lacazette to start the NLD. Either way, that means replacing Werner would become a -8 and while each hit is independent I really don't fancy going into GW36 8 points in debit.

Will just have to wait on the press conferences I guess. Maybe I'll take my chances and stick with Werner. If not I'll replace Werner and play Weghorst.

As for Jesus, he has been playing #9 a lot recently, that's the whole point really. The decision also relates to whether KDB is fit. Everyone seems to assume so but I have considerable doubt about that and if he isn't, Jesus almost certainly starts #9.

I've got the same Ramsey problem, one thing after another at the moment! Ramsey to Gordon looks sensible. I agree Weghorst to Nketia looks suboptimal. Richarlison is now reported to have a knock. although he played v Chelsea since the knock happenned so I'm not overly concerned about making that move.

Pep stated KDB withdrawal v Madrid was tactical just now. Not sure if Pep is telling the truth or not. Apparently the City written press conference was wild, but its all embargoed until 10:30pm tonight, so I'll be reading that with interest when its released! It'll probably be moaning rather than injury news but who knows.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

I'd go for Richarlison this week Ruth out of the 3 mentioned, despite the FH in 37. Mahrez is a big threat to Jesus on the right side and although Jesus could play as number 9, so could Foden or Sterling.

Thanks. The situation is now compounded by the injury to Ramsey, who was going to be in my team. Either he needs replacing or Weghorst will need to come in and that's not ideal. So, probably Ramsey Gordon (-4).

Weghorst Nketiah and bench Ramsey would be an alternative but I expect Lacazette to start the NLD. Either way, that means replacing Werner would become a -8 and while each hit is independent I really don't fancy going into GW36 8 points in debit.

Will just have to wait on the press conferences I guess. Maybe I'll take my chances and stick with Werner. If not I'll replace Werner and play Weghorst.

As for Jesus, he has been playing #9 a lot recently, that's the whole point really. The decision also relates to whether KDB is fit. Everyone seems to assume so but I have considerable doubt about that and if he isn't, Jesus almost certainly starts #9.

Possible Richarlison/niggle injury now, just to spice it up

Sent from my SM-A515F using Tapatalk

[RM323]

I'd go for Richarlison this week Ruth out of the 3 mentioned, despite the FH in 37. Mahrez is a big threat to Jesus on the right side and although Jesus could play as number 9, so could Foden or Sterling.

Thanks. The situation is now compounded by the injury to Ramsey, who was going to be in my team. Either he needs replacing or Weghorst will need to come in and that's not ideal. So, probably Ramsey Gordon (-4).

Weghorst Nketiah and bench Ramsey would be an alternative but I expect Lacazette to start the NLD. Either way, that means replacing Werner would become a -8 and while each hit is independent I really don't fancy going into GW36 8 points in debit.

Will just have to wait on the press conferences I guess. Maybe I'll take my chances and stick with Werner. If not I'll replace Werner and play Weghorst.

As for Jesus, he has been playing #9 a lot recently, that's the whole point really. The decision also relates to whether KDB is fit. Everyone seems to assume so but I have considerable doubt about that and if he isn't, Jesus almost certainly starts #9.

Also re: Laca - GW38 is Home for Arsenal (EVE), would think it is highly possible Arteta starts him given likely his last appearance in Arsenal shirt.

[Ruth_NZ]

Also re: Laca - GW38 is Home for Arsenal (EVE), would think it is highly possible Arteta starts him given likely his last appearance in Arsenal shirt.

Good point, though he might also sub him on. I think he will want Lacazette's experience and hold-up play in the NLD though, especially if that game can be decisive.

[fred1266]

I'd go for Richarlison this week Ruth out of the 3 mentioned, despite the FH in 37. Mahrez is a big threat to Jesus on the right side and although Jesus could play as number 9, so could Foden or Sterling.

Thanks. The situation is now compounded by the injury to Ramsey, who was going to be in my team. Either he needs replacing or Weghorst will need to come in and that's not ideal. So, probably Ramsey Gordon (-4).

Weghorst Nketiah and bench Ramsey would be an alternative but I expect Lacazette to start the NLD. Either way, that means replacing Werner would become a -8 and while each hit is independent I really don't fancy going into GW36 8 points in debit.

Will just have to wait on the press conferences I guess. Maybe I'll take my chances and stick with Werner. If not I'll replace Werner and play Weghorst.

As for Jesus, he has been playing #9 a lot recently, that's the whole point really. The decision also relates to whether KDB is fit. Everyone seems to assume so but I have considerable doubt about that and if he isn't, Jesus almost certainly starts #9.

Also re: Laca - GW38 is Home for Arsenal (EVE), would think it is highly possible Arteta starts him given likely his last appearance in Arsenal shirt.

it can also be eddie last appearance so no one really safe between them

[fred1266]

Also re: Laca - GW38 is Home for Arsenal (EVE), would think it is highly possible Arteta starts him given likely his last appearance in Arsenal shirt.

Good point, though he might also sub him on. I think he will want Lacazette's experience and hold-up play in the NLD though, especially if that game can be decisive.

Dont think so once Eddie plays good against Leeds the starts NLD, Arteta recently said he has been unfair with Eddie so think arteta willing to give him a run of game

[Ruth_NZ]

DGW36

Bruno, Wood Salah, Gelhardt done with 2 FTs and that will probably be it. Yes, it's somewhat unlikely that Werner will start both games but he should get something around 110 minutes maybe and he won't be by any means the only player this week that fails to start twice. Could happen with Robertson, with any City attacker, any Leicester player, with James, with Nketiah, even with Richarlison if he is still struggling with an ankle strain (and with DCL back fit). That's the problem with late-season DGWs, they often have an element of mirage about them. So rather than spending points I'll stand with what I have, play Weghorst for Ramsey and see where that takes me. That leaves my team looking like this for GW36:

Ramsdale
Cancelo VVD Davies Robertson
Saka Salah(c) Foden(v) Son
Weghorst Werner
Pickford Gelhardt Ramsey Schär + 0.3m

10 doublers and not a lot on the bench, though Ramsey may well play the 2nd game if called upon. Not a week where my team fills me with confidence but it will be interesting from a football point of view with so much at play top and bottom. I actually fancy that Spurs may get something at Anfield, that will be a good watch as will the NLD, especially if Leeds don't roll over for Arsenal. If Everton can beat Chelsea then Leeds can beat Arsenal or give them a very difficult game. So, quite a pivotal week, maybe. If my team can come out even I'll be more than happy as the FH in GW37 will offer a good opportunity to gain some more ground.

Salah will be my captain and that needs no explanation. The one selection dilemma is Ramsdale or Pickford but if Arsenal achieve a CS this weekend it will surely be a Ramsdale haul and I still don't entirely trust Everton away despite their good performance at Liverpool.

GL all.

[Joccki_10]

Sorry to hear about your misfortune, you back in Holland now?

Yes mate, since a week now. Injury occurred exactly three weeks ago and at the moment it looks like I definitely need at least another four. Hoping to be fit when preseason in Europe kicks in again.

[Bobby Fetta]

I'm fairly sure now Ramsdale is the best keeper, full of confidence, his defence in front of him has clean sheet potential, he makes saves and has bonus potential - getting a bonus point from making a single save in a 1-0 win in rather ominous. Maybe not Martinez levels but not far off as I see it.

Yes, but doesn't that rely on his ridiculous save % this season continuing? And that's what I am questioning really.

19/20 Ramsdale's save percentage was 67.8%, quite a way below average. As a comparison, Guaita had 71.4% that season. Normally 70% is the minimum you'd be wanting and 75% is the ideal.
20/21 Ramsdale's save percentage was 70.7%, OK but nothing special. That was the Martinez season and he managed 76.8%, just behind Pope.
21/22 Ramsdale has a save percentage of 86.8% so far and that is unsustainable. I agree that he plays the ball a lot with his feet and that may help him in the BPS, as a sweeper-keeper he may be awarded more clearances and/or interceptions than is typical and he may be credited with some key passes as well (haven't looked at his breakdown in detail). But if (when) the save percentage regresses it may look different.

It's not a done deal as far as I can see. Not yet anyway.

Ruth - been meaning to bring this up. I saw a chart recently on twitter showing how much Ramsdale's performance dropped off over the season. Can't find it now so attempted to reproduce something similar. FBref shows overall save percentage dropped from the 87% down to 72% at season's end, which was TRM's prediction back in November tbf (I get 68% by comparing saves to shots on target but maybe I'm doing something wrong). I post this as someone who owned him through the rotten run since then.

Ramsdale.PNG

[Ruth_NZ]

Under the Radar?

Haven't finished with my Lessons Learned but am going to make some notes on this while it is in my mind. It's going to be a kind of watchlist for next season of players that may be underpriced or will perhaps be under the radar for most managers. Within this, set-and-forget type players will be of particular interest because next season should have far less interruption than this and far fewer blanks and doubles (hopefully), hence the opportunity to play a less extremely reactive game. It won't be a comprehensive list, just players that have caught my notice, and I don't expect to cover every team.

The Big Three

It's going to be hard to find value here and I'm not going to analyse the relative merits of James, TAA & Cancelo, for example. Those kinds of player will be FPL staples anyway. One to make note of, however, is Rodrigo at City. He was priced 5.5m this season and his price never moved, up or down, so if FPL base next season's prices on the final valuations from 21/22 (as they did last time) then he won't be too expensive. I'm guessing 6m. What makes him interesting is his improved goal threat in the last quarter of the season; while he certainly over-performed xG with his 4 goals in the last 9 games it was also apparent that he's an important target at set pieces and his distance shooting was quite impressive. In addition, the departure of Fernandinho makes him very likely to start every game. Price will be significant for Rodri but if he were to come in at 5.5m again there could be worse set-and-forget types.

There's no-one at Liverpool really. Luis Díaz seemed to cement himself as first choice and he was 8m this season (rose to 8.1m). But his gametime won't be completely reliable - not with Jota & Firmino also getting games - and his price will likely be increased anyway (9m at a guess). He's a wait-and-see. Chelsea are quite imponderable because it's currently quite difficult to predict what their squad will look like next season. The one that might be worth noting is Pulisic, who TT has identified as a player that could be very important if he can add a more clinical finishing streak. "He’s not a player who produced in the last three years 30 goals (but) it’s a matter of time until he is that kind of player. We will push him in this direction. Maybe we can help in the structure of how we attack. Is it necessary to bring more offensive players around the box to create more distraction, to create more space for each other? Can we do better in the structure? Can we push the players more? Did we maybe rotate too much?"

Maybe it will be Pulisic that benefits, maybe Werner, maybe Lukaku. It is, however, interesting to know that this is the way TTs thoughts are moving.

All stats courtesy understat.com and/or fbref.com

[Ruth_NZ]

Ruth - been meaning to bring this up...

Thanks Bobby. It's another dispiriting example of something I read correctly and yet failed to benefit from because some time after writing that I replaced DDG with Ramsdale as my main GK for the 2nd half of the season. Seriously, that kind of thing has happened to me so much this season. I have failed to stick to my guns when I ought to have and have been obstinate when I should have changed course. That's kind of why my Lessons Learned has stalled on the question of player selection because I'm a bit reluctant to look at it in all honesty and am not entirely sure what lessons can be learned when variance plays such a big part.

FPL is just an irritant. In GW37 my FH was OK with 80-something points but my nephew had 125 points with his, simply by ignoring fixtures and selecting 11 DGW players. Another week that fails. GW37 he took 40 points out of me by that one decision.

[Ruth_NZ]

Under the Radar? Part 2

Just as a footnote on Rodri, he scored 127 points in 33 games this season - that's not far off 4 points per game, which is adequate for 5.5m. The potential attraction would be if some (not all) of his improvement in goal threat in the last quarter were to be maintained next season. This season he scored 7 goals with 4 coming in the last 9 games, two of which were headers from set pieces. If he could manage 10 goals next season, his output could rise to 4.5 points per game and at that rate he'd be a very good set-and-forget option if priced at 6m or less.

Basically this is to acknowledge that under Pep's system we don't only see a false-9 and (often) a false-fullback; we also to a degree see a false-DM. This is because City often use possession to set up camp in the opposing half and therefore even if the DM stays behind the ball they can be involved in attacks. Couple that with the set-piece threat from Rodri's aerial prowess and you maybe have a DM that can be a valid FPL option. The open question is whether Haaland's arrival will adjust how City play. Typically the reverse happens - Pep makes the forward adjust his game - but Guillem Balague believes that City may blend some faster transitions into the mix and if so that will be somewhat against Rodri's prospects for FPL.

The CL Chasers (Spurs, United, Arsenal)

Once again, this won't concern the Kane & Son types, we are looking for under-the-radar value. Spurs should be a great source and the one I'm keenest on is Sessegnon, who finished the season as Spurs' 1st-choice LWB. He was priced 4.5m this season and his price had fallen to 4.3m by season's end so there has to be a decent chance of another 4.5m valuation. At that price he'd be straight into my team. Conte likes him: "Ryan is a player that has great potential, physically he is really strong and is difficult to beat in one vs one (so) defensively he has reached an important level. For sure he has to improve with the ball (but) we are talking about a young player with a great space for improvement."

Seeing that Sessegnon often played as a wide attacker for Fulham, that improvement is surely within his reach and his stats for the last quarter of the season bear that out - really top echelon numbers for assist threat and doing better on that score than the likes of Cancelo, James & TAA in fewer minutes. In fact, of those players that started regularly, only KDB had a better xA per 90 than Sessegnon since 1st April. Add to that the fact that Spurs' defensive solidity is now showing big improvement under Conte (not far off City/Liverpool levels over the last quarter) and Sessegnon would be gold at 4.5m and good value even at 5m as long as Spurs don't sign a new LWB. In all honestly, any reliable starting Spurs defender at 4.5m next season will be worth having but Sessegnon is the one I most have my eye on.

Further forward, the issue with Kulusevski will be price. I correctly observed that he was well under-priced before he had kicked a ball for Spurs and his price rose from 6m to 6.3m. But he's one that I can't imagine won't be re-rated and would expect 7m at the very least, at which level some of the value would be gone. We'll have to wait and see on him but he's a proper baller as I said at the time. However, Bentancur is really interesting if he keeps his 5m valuation - another supposed DM that has set-and-forget potential. The pivot in Conte's 3-4-3 generally has one holding and one that gets more forward and for Spurs it's generally Højbjerg holding and Bentancur in the freer role. Bentancur became an increasingly influential creator for Spurs as he settled in and you could easily see him with 120+ points next season. The lack of goal threat is the drawback but he's worth keeping an eye on.

It's impossible to comment on United, we have no idea how things will look under Ten Hag and there will doubtless be considerable churn in the squad anyway. As for Arsenal, this season they played very few games and had the best opportunity to win CL football that they are likely to have for a fair while with United dismal and Spurs terrible under Nuno. And they still didn't make it. Next season they will have EL to impede them (and it generally does impede teams in the PL) so their players will need treating with caution for FPL purposes. They aren't especially sound defensively and in attack there will doubtless be a main CF added, whether that's Jesus or Abraham or someone else. So it's a watching brief really. Saka did have a breakthrough season but his price rose to 6.8m and he'll surely be at least 7.5m next time? That could still be value if he keeps penalties but my tendency is to anticipate some regression next time around and he'd not be an automatic choice at that price.

All stats courtesy understat.com and/or fbref.com