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R_NZ RMT Blog

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Apr 2019, 12:57

ragamuffin wrote: Was a great shout Ruth and Morrison pick. :O

Just a kind of off topic question – I remember you saying on this blog last season I think that top 10K was easy to achieve. Do you think this is still the case as with all the influx of spoon fed info via social media etc? It is evident more ‘casuals’ are taking the game seriously and using the chips around dgw’s isn’t giving the same rank boost as a few seasons ago.

Is top 50k the new top 10k for example or do the ‘hardcore’ players still hold the advantage?
I think 20k is easy and 10k is fairly easy if you are playing with that aim. Not to say that you will do it absolutely every season - sometimes the dice really roll against you for whatever reason - but most of the time; 8 in 10 seasons say.

A lot of the 'spoon-fed' advice you refer to is rubbish but it is rubbish with an element of safety because of the herd effect. For example, I had triple Brighton defence for the DGW just past. I was using the FH because I thought it would be a tricky week (which it kind of was and kind of wasn't) and also because I saw an opportunity to go heavy on Brighton/Cardiff, whereas I wouldn't much want their players in GW35. So I was amazed to see that the triple-Brighton idea was almost de rigeur on FFS for those wildcarding in GW34 with a view to BB35. Now those teams are stuck with Ryan, Duffy, Dunk for wol tot and I can hardly see those to be attractive fixtures, even for a BB. :?

Anyway, if a lot of the advice being peddled is 'safe rubbish' then you have a potential advantage if you are good at the game. But there are a number of hurdles to overcome before you can turn that potential advantage into actual points. First, the bad advice needs to actually have a bad outcome and it doesn't always. Milivojevic, for example. The guy is utterly reliant on penalties and the odd free-kick but the fact is that Palace seem to get a never-ending supply of penalties. There is no rhyme or reason to it (seriously, I have researched the patterns and it really is quite random which teams get them and when) but because he has accrued a lot of points, people with poor judgement say "get Milivojevic" and he becomes a popular pick. It is very unfortunate when someone like that continues to do really well when you steered clear for all the right reasons but the herd (who you consider to have made a faulty judgement or to have been following faulty advice) gains despite all that. This is one of the few things that annoy me in FPL. MacAuley's incessant goal heroics (and immunity from rest at the age of 38) a few seasons back were another example and still niggles me. :wink: :lol:

Anyway, the second hurdle is that you then have to find an alternative (or an alternative combination) that actually gets a better outcome. It doesn't serve you to be wise enough to avoid a poor selection if your alternative does no better. So you essentially have to beat the herd twice to gain; first their poor choice must get a poor outcome and then your alternative must get a good outcome. It is great when it works but not always easy to do and that is why staying on safe ground (making the majority of decisions close to 'the fence' to paraphrase Stemania) and being very careful about differentiating is the much safer way. Do that competently and add a modicum of astuteness and I'd say 20k should be pretty easily achievable most seasons.

The third hurdle, strangely enough, is the ability to filter out the noise others make. There is an in-built tendency in human psychology to believe that the majority is likely to be right. For example, my FH this week was intended to capitalise on players that were going to start (because of CL/EL rotation) that might not usually, and that had big potential as a result. Believe it or not, after watching Spurs-City last week I was immediately decided that Moura would be in my FH team. Then it became apparent that Kane was badly injured and that Alli was also out. The big noise was that Son was therefore certain to play and I wasn't able to filter that out (in fairness to myself I have had limited time recently). So I ended up going with Son rather than Moura and we all know the result. Not that I mind, it was my decision and my fault. It's just that if you are going to be more radical in attempting to take advantage of the poor advice out there (and Munday's contributions to FFS have taken that to an all-time low in my opinion) then you really need to be on the ball (which I haven't been this season) and also to get a decent rub of fortune.

If you don't really have the time to invest to be quite painstaking then playing in the safety ground will probably get you a better result. And if you are competent and sufficiently on the ball to keep on top of developments then I'd still say that 20k is a fairly easy target if you approach things that way. Maybe 20k is the new 10k. :wink: :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by blahblah » 17 Apr 2019, 13:00

Sutter Kane wrote:
17 Apr 2019, 11:22
Yeah I had Camarasa too. It's those calls that can make a big difference, especially as captain. No-one really selected Camarasa because they wanted to BB35. Could have got 9 in the first game and got 6 in that one, you'd have been sitting on 30 points for him.
At his price he is a bit of a star....

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Patrician » 17 Apr 2019, 13:41

Quite a few consistently top players are struggling to get inside the top 10k this season...

Grant Barclay - 24k
Matthew Jones - 26k
Richard Clarke - 33k
Ville Ronka - 47k
Jay Egersdorff - 460k

In my own case, I think I have played better this season than last, but I think my rank is going to be worse. It feels more competitive at the top.

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TheRumourMill
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by TheRumourMill » 17 Apr 2019, 17:00

And in a neat contrast, David Munday who Ruth slated above is ahead of all 5 of these consistent top players :lol:

Has anyone genuinely got an explanation for this? From my own observations this season it seems like David has come out the right side of varience fairly consistently whereas people like Jay haven't. Theres been quite a number of destructive captaincy hauls going around this season and it appears that David has hit a number of these and Jay hasn't, reflected by their difference in total captaincy score of 574 v 418 respectively.

I also seem to remember from the various videos FFS have produced this year that David often simply didn't need to make a transfer (16 of the 34 weeks of the season he carried a transfer). And of these I think there were goalkeeper transfers in there and even a 1 week hokey cokey transfer involving Shaqiri. When you've got the luxury of being able to make moves like that things have definately fallen into place. Maybe he does give bad advice but whatever he's doing this season is working, in marked contrast to his previous campaigns.

Or maybe Mark Sutherns is just telling him who to bring in every week! :lol:

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Apr 2019, 17:39

Yeah, he has done hugely well on captaincy. But I haven't really looked at his team at all and my comments were based on what he writes rather than what he does with his team.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 17 Apr 2019, 18:29

With a captain score of 574, that will always explain a lot - no other discussion needed. The captain variance from season to season is huge for most people from what I can gather so if you get that to fall very right in a particular season, then just vaguely following FF Scout, press conferences, etc, (i.e. being a boring robot, like me) will do the trick. We'll see how he does next season.

418 captain points is inexplicable - I'm not about to wade through Jay's individual picks but I'd bet based on his FPL history that he hasn't done anything wildly different to warrant such bad captain scores. I'm on 442 and that's pretty abysmal. Swap mine and Munday's captain scores and I'd be 31st in the world. :lol: (I know it's not as simple as that - just that captains have always been a big bugbear of mine)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Kuchi » 19 Apr 2019, 22:00

Just a random side note about this season and rankings. From a personal point of view I have made reasonable decisions. Nothing spectacular but feel overall reasonable. Season I finished 13k I was 977k at Christmas and for me that was my best season. Really felt I played "best" that year. In contrast last year in the top 1500 I felt I made (looking back) some shocking decisions. What I think its rather underrated/not discussed as much is your start. If you are high say top 10k after GW8 then unless something bananas happens then you should be secure for at least that finish. My first daughter was born in Apr 17 and second in Nov 18 so have had more of a backseat since then. I know Ruth has had things on this season (hope things are going well sir) so another factor could be your mental state. Sorry for sidetracking but think there is a lot of factors that if everything goes against you could lead to some rather shocking finishes. No one suddenly becomes a bad player overnight.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dino1980 » 20 Apr 2019, 02:38

TheRumourMill wrote:
17 Apr 2019, 17:00
And in a neat contrast, David Munday who Ruth slated above is ahead of all 5 of these consistent top players :lol:

Has anyone genuinely got an explanation for this? From my own observations this season it seems like David has come out the right side of varience fairly consistently whereas people like Jay haven't. Theres been quite a number of destructive captaincy hauls going around this season and it appears that David has hit a number of these and Jay hasn't, reflected by their difference in total captaincy score of 574 v 418 respectively.

I also seem to remember from the various videos FFS have produced this year that David often simply didn't need to make a transfer (16 of the 34 weeks of the season he carried a transfer). And of these I think there were goalkeeper transfers in there and even a 1 week hokey cokey transfer involving Shaqiri. When you've got the luxury of being able to make moves like that things have definately fallen into place. Maybe he does give bad advice but whatever he's doing this season is working, in marked contrast to his previous campaigns.

Or maybe Mark Sutherns is just telling him who to bring in every week! :lol:
With regards to David Munday’s improved ranking/performance it’s pretty clear to me the reasons why and I don’t think he’s getting enough credit.

Tl:dr he’s had a much better season, because he’s now a much better manager, taking the game far more seriously.

He’s spending at least 40 hours a week on FPL for his job. That’s somewhere around 1,600 hours since he took the job in June (ish?). He’s embedded in the members area of FFS and I’d wager he spends way more hours than anyone else looking through stats, game footage, writing about the game (regardless of the quality).
If you invest that much time in something you can’t fail to improve at it.
Additionally, he has now got more experienced FPL managers as colleagues with whom to seek their opinion or ask advice on matters if necessary. Not that much different to posting on forums, Slack channels etc though imo.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 20 Apr 2019, 07:09

dino1980 wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 02:38
With regards to David Munday’s improved ranking/performance it’s pretty clear to me the reasons why and I don’t think he’s getting enough credit.

Tl:dr he’s had a much better season, because he’s now a much better manager, taking the game far more seriously.

He’s spending at least 40 hours a week on FPL for his job. That’s somewhere around 1,600 hours since he took the job in June (ish?). He’s embedded in the members area of FFS and I’d wager he spends way more hours than anyone else looking through stats, game footage, writing about the game (regardless of the quality).
If you invest that much time in something you can’t fail to improve at it.
Additionally, he has now got more experienced FPL managers as colleagues with whom to seek their opinion or ask advice on matters if necessary. Not that much different to posting on forums, Slack channels etc though imo.
:arrow: Elephant in the room though Dino: his captain score. Now I'm very interested if the research he's doing has got him that humungous total (more than the current leader) but imo he won't do it again next year. We'll see. To be fair Sutherns has 582 so maybe Munday is listening in a little...like I said, if you can garner that kind of ppg for your captain through research, I might have to start digging through endless stats next year.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 20 Apr 2019, 11:00

Just as an extra note...

Please don't take any of the above as a self-apology about how bad my season has been. It has been bad. I haven't played well and almost everything I have done since GW1 has gone pear-shaped. I am well aware that is partly down to having a big home move to navigate and also to having lost a bit of interest. To be honest, I'm not really even sure what my mistakes have been because I haven't felt like analysing them. Maybe I will later on. But none of what I have written here is meant to be a personal apologia. I was just answering what Ragamuffin asked about really. :)

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TheRumourMill
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by TheRumourMill » 23 Apr 2019, 13:11

dino1980 wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 02:38
TheRumourMill wrote:
17 Apr 2019, 17:00
And in a neat contrast, David Munday who Ruth slated above is ahead of all 5 of these consistent top players :lol:

Has anyone genuinely got an explanation for this? From my own observations this season it seems like David has come out the right side of varience fairly consistently whereas people like Jay haven't. Theres been quite a number of destructive captaincy hauls going around this season and it appears that David has hit a number of these and Jay hasn't, reflected by their difference in total captaincy score of 574 v 418 respectively.

I also seem to remember from the various videos FFS have produced this year that David often simply didn't need to make a transfer (16 of the 34 weeks of the season he carried a transfer). And of these I think there were goalkeeper transfers in there and even a 1 week hokey cokey transfer involving Shaqiri. When you've got the luxury of being able to make moves like that things have definately fallen into place. Maybe he does give bad advice but whatever he's doing this season is working, in marked contrast to his previous campaigns.

Or maybe Mark Sutherns is just telling him who to bring in every week! :lol:
With regards to David Munday’s improved ranking/performance it’s pretty clear to me the reasons why and I don’t think he’s getting enough credit.

Tl:dr he’s had a much better season, because he’s now a much better manager, taking the game far more seriously.

He’s spending at least 40 hours a week on FPL for his job. That’s somewhere around 1,600 hours since he took the job in June (ish?). He’s embedded in the members area of FFS and I’d wager he spends way more hours than anyone else looking through stats, game footage, writing about the game (regardless of the quality).
If you invest that much time in something you can’t fail to improve at it.
Additionally, he has now got more experienced FPL managers as colleagues with whom to seek their opinion or ask advice on matters if necessary. Not that much different to posting on forums, Slack channels etc though imo.
All good points. Hopefully at the end of the season FFS take the time to analyse David's improved performance on the scoutcast, would potentially make quite an interesting case study for those "average" FPL managers looking to improve.

I noticed we jinxed him on captaincy this week though - he went for KdB! Thats just bad luck though tbf.

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dod
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod » 09 May 2019, 16:44

Ruth_NZ wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 11:00
Just as an extra note...

Please don't take any of the above as a self-apology about how bad my season has been. It has been bad. I haven't played well and almost everything I have done since GW1 has gone pear-shaped. I am well aware that is partly down to having a big home move to navigate and also to having lost a bit of interest. To be honest, I'm not really even sure what my mistakes have been because I haven't felt like analysing them. Maybe I will later on. But none of what I have written here is meant to be a personal apologia. I was just answering what Ragamuffin asked about really. :)
I feel much the same way Ruth. I had major building work done on my flat and didn't even have electricity and water for weeks. It's hard to spend much time thinking about FPL under those circumstances and it kind of killed my season.

Next season though ... :lol:

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