I think 20k is easy and 10k is fairly easy if you are playing with that aim. Not to say that you will do it absolutely every season - sometimes the dice really roll against you for whatever reason - but most of the time; 8 in 10 seasons say.ragamuffin wrote: Was a great shout Ruth and Morrison pick. :O
Just a kind of off topic question – I remember you saying on this blog last season I think that top 10K was easy to achieve. Do you think this is still the case as with all the influx of spoon fed info via social media etc? It is evident more ‘casuals’ are taking the game seriously and using the chips around dgw’s isn’t giving the same rank boost as a few seasons ago.
Is top 50k the new top 10k for example or do the ‘hardcore’ players still hold the advantage?
A lot of the 'spoon-fed' advice you refer to is rubbish but it is rubbish with an element of safety because of the herd effect. For example, I had triple Brighton defence for the DGW just past. I was using the FH because I thought it would be a tricky week (which it kind of was and kind of wasn't) and also because I saw an opportunity to go heavy on Brighton/Cardiff, whereas I wouldn't much want their players in GW35. So I was amazed to see that the triple-Brighton idea was almost de rigeur on FFS for those wildcarding in GW34 with a view to BB35. Now those teams are stuck with Ryan, Duffy, Dunk for wol tot and I can hardly see those to be attractive fixtures, even for a BB.
Anyway, if a lot of the advice being peddled is 'safe rubbish' then you have a potential advantage if you are good at the game. But there are a number of hurdles to overcome before you can turn that potential advantage into actual points. First, the bad advice needs to actually have a bad outcome and it doesn't always. Milivojevic, for example. The guy is utterly reliant on penalties and the odd free-kick but the fact is that Palace seem to get a never-ending supply of penalties. There is no rhyme or reason to it (seriously, I have researched the patterns and it really is quite random which teams get them and when) but because he has accrued a lot of points, people with poor judgement say "get Milivojevic" and he becomes a popular pick. It is very unfortunate when someone like that continues to do really well when you steered clear for all the right reasons but the herd (who you consider to have made a faulty judgement or to have been following faulty advice) gains despite all that. This is one of the few things that annoy me in FPL. MacAuley's incessant goal heroics (and immunity from rest at the age of 38) a few seasons back were another example and still niggles me.
Anyway, the second hurdle is that you then have to find an alternative (or an alternative combination) that actually gets a better outcome. It doesn't serve you to be wise enough to avoid a poor selection if your alternative does no better. So you essentially have to beat the herd twice to gain; first their poor choice must get a poor outcome and then your alternative must get a good outcome. It is great when it works but not always easy to do and that is why staying on safe ground (making the majority of decisions close to 'the fence' to paraphrase Stemania) and being very careful about differentiating is the much safer way. Do that competently and add a modicum of astuteness and I'd say 20k should be pretty easily achievable most seasons.
The third hurdle, strangely enough, is the ability to filter out the noise others make. There is an in-built tendency in human psychology to believe that the majority is likely to be right. For example, my FH this week was intended to capitalise on players that were going to start (because of CL/EL rotation) that might not usually, and that had big potential as a result. Believe it or not, after watching Spurs-City last week I was immediately decided that Moura would be in my FH team. Then it became apparent that Kane was badly injured and that Alli was also out. The big noise was that Son was therefore certain to play and I wasn't able to filter that out (in fairness to myself I have had limited time recently). So I ended up going with Son rather than Moura and we all know the result. Not that I mind, it was my decision and my fault. It's just that if you are going to be more radical in attempting to take advantage of the poor advice out there (and Munday's contributions to FFS have taken that to an all-time low in my opinion) then you really need to be on the ball (which I haven't been this season) and also to get a decent rub of fortune.
If you don't really have the time to invest to be quite painstaking then playing in the safety ground will probably get you a better result. And if you are competent and sufficiently on the ball to keep on top of developments then I'd still say that 20k is a fairly easy target if you approach things that way. Maybe 20k is the new 10k.