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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Apr 2019, 12:57

ragamuffin wrote: Was a great shout Ruth and Morrison pick. :O

Just a kind of off topic question – I remember you saying on this blog last season I think that top 10K was easy to achieve. Do you think this is still the case as with all the influx of spoon fed info via social media etc? It is evident more ‘casuals’ are taking the game seriously and using the chips around dgw’s isn’t giving the same rank boost as a few seasons ago.

Is top 50k the new top 10k for example or do the ‘hardcore’ players still hold the advantage?
I think 20k is easy and 10k is fairly easy if you are playing with that aim. Not to say that you will do it absolutely every season - sometimes the dice really roll against you for whatever reason - but most of the time; 8 in 10 seasons say.

A lot of the 'spoon-fed' advice you refer to is rubbish but it is rubbish with an element of safety because of the herd effect. For example, I had triple Brighton defence for the DGW just past. I was using the FH because I thought it would be a tricky week (which it kind of was and kind of wasn't) and also because I saw an opportunity to go heavy on Brighton/Cardiff, whereas I wouldn't much want their players in GW35. So I was amazed to see that the triple-Brighton idea was almost de rigeur on FFS for those wildcarding in GW34 with a view to BB35. Now those teams are stuck with Ryan, Duffy, Dunk for wol tot and I can hardly see those to be attractive fixtures, even for a BB. :?

Anyway, if a lot of the advice being peddled is 'safe rubbish' then you have a potential advantage if you are good at the game. But there are a number of hurdles to overcome before you can turn that potential advantage into actual points. First, the bad advice needs to actually have a bad outcome and it doesn't always. Milivojevic, for example. The guy is utterly reliant on penalties and the odd free-kick but the fact is that Palace seem to get a never-ending supply of penalties. There is no rhyme or reason to it (seriously, I have researched the patterns and it really is quite random which teams get them and when) but because he has accrued a lot of points, people with poor judgement say "get Milivojevic" and he becomes a popular pick. It is very unfortunate when someone like that continues to do really well when you steered clear for all the right reasons but the herd (who you consider to have made a faulty judgement or to have been following faulty advice) gains despite all that. This is one of the few things that annoy me in FPL. MacAuley's incessant goal heroics (and immunity from rest at the age of 38) a few seasons back were another example and still niggles me. :wink: :lol:

Anyway, the second hurdle is that you then have to find an alternative (or an alternative combination) that actually gets a better outcome. It doesn't serve you to be wise enough to avoid a poor selection if your alternative does no better. So you essentially have to beat the herd twice to gain; first their poor choice must get a poor outcome and then your alternative must get a good outcome. It is great when it works but not always easy to do and that is why staying on safe ground (making the majority of decisions close to 'the fence' to paraphrase Stemania) and being very careful about differentiating is the much safer way. Do that competently and add a modicum of astuteness and I'd say 20k should be pretty easily achievable most seasons.

The third hurdle, strangely enough, is the ability to filter out the noise others make. There is an in-built tendency in human psychology to believe that the majority is likely to be right. For example, my FH this week was intended to capitalise on players that were going to start (because of CL/EL rotation) that might not usually, and that had big potential as a result. Believe it or not, after watching Spurs-City last week I was immediately decided that Moura would be in my FH team. Then it became apparent that Kane was badly injured and that Alli was also out. The big noise was that Son was therefore certain to play and I wasn't able to filter that out (in fairness to myself I have had limited time recently). So I ended up going with Son rather than Moura and we all know the result. Not that I mind, it was my decision and my fault. It's just that if you are going to be more radical in attempting to take advantage of the poor advice out there (and Munday's contributions to FFS have taken that to an all-time low in my opinion) then you really need to be on the ball (which I haven't been this season) and also to get a decent rub of fortune.

If you don't really have the time to invest to be quite painstaking then playing in the safety ground will probably get you a better result. And if you are competent and sufficiently on the ball to keep on top of developments then I'd still say that 20k is a fairly easy target if you approach things that way. Maybe 20k is the new 10k. :wink: :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by blahblah » 17 Apr 2019, 13:00

Sutter Kane wrote:
17 Apr 2019, 11:22
Yeah I had Camarasa too. It's those calls that can make a big difference, especially as captain. No-one really selected Camarasa because they wanted to BB35. Could have got 9 in the first game and got 6 in that one, you'd have been sitting on 30 points for him.
At his price he is a bit of a star....

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Patrician » 17 Apr 2019, 13:41

Quite a few consistently top players are struggling to get inside the top 10k this season...

Grant Barclay - 24k
Matthew Jones - 26k
Richard Clarke - 33k
Ville Ronka - 47k
Jay Egersdorff - 460k

In my own case, I think I have played better this season than last, but I think my rank is going to be worse. It feels more competitive at the top.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by TheRumourMill » 17 Apr 2019, 17:00

And in a neat contrast, David Munday who Ruth slated above is ahead of all 5 of these consistent top players :lol:

Has anyone genuinely got an explanation for this? From my own observations this season it seems like David has come out the right side of varience fairly consistently whereas people like Jay haven't. Theres been quite a number of destructive captaincy hauls going around this season and it appears that David has hit a number of these and Jay hasn't, reflected by their difference in total captaincy score of 574 v 418 respectively.

I also seem to remember from the various videos FFS have produced this year that David often simply didn't need to make a transfer (16 of the 34 weeks of the season he carried a transfer). And of these I think there were goalkeeper transfers in there and even a 1 week hokey cokey transfer involving Shaqiri. When you've got the luxury of being able to make moves like that things have definately fallen into place. Maybe he does give bad advice but whatever he's doing this season is working, in marked contrast to his previous campaigns.

Or maybe Mark Sutherns is just telling him who to bring in every week! :lol:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Apr 2019, 17:39

Yeah, he has done hugely well on captaincy. But I haven't really looked at his team at all and my comments were based on what he writes rather than what he does with his team.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 17 Apr 2019, 18:29

With a captain score of 574, that will always explain a lot - no other discussion needed. The captain variance from season to season is huge for most people from what I can gather so if you get that to fall very right in a particular season, then just vaguely following FF Scout, press conferences, etc, (i.e. being a boring robot, like me) will do the trick. We'll see how he does next season.

418 captain points is inexplicable - I'm not about to wade through Jay's individual picks but I'd bet based on his FPL history that he hasn't done anything wildly different to warrant such bad captain scores. I'm on 442 and that's pretty abysmal. Swap mine and Munday's captain scores and I'd be 31st in the world. :lol: (I know it's not as simple as that - just that captains have always been a big bugbear of mine)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Kuchi » 19 Apr 2019, 22:00

Just a random side note about this season and rankings. From a personal point of view I have made reasonable decisions. Nothing spectacular but feel overall reasonable. Season I finished 13k I was 977k at Christmas and for me that was my best season. Really felt I played "best" that year. In contrast last year in the top 1500 I felt I made (looking back) some shocking decisions. What I think its rather underrated/not discussed as much is your start. If you are high say top 10k after GW8 then unless something bananas happens then you should be secure for at least that finish. My first daughter was born in Apr 17 and second in Nov 18 so have had more of a backseat since then. I know Ruth has had things on this season (hope things are going well sir) so another factor could be your mental state. Sorry for sidetracking but think there is a lot of factors that if everything goes against you could lead to some rather shocking finishes. No one suddenly becomes a bad player overnight.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dino1980 » 20 Apr 2019, 02:38

TheRumourMill wrote:
17 Apr 2019, 17:00
And in a neat contrast, David Munday who Ruth slated above is ahead of all 5 of these consistent top players :lol:

Has anyone genuinely got an explanation for this? From my own observations this season it seems like David has come out the right side of varience fairly consistently whereas people like Jay haven't. Theres been quite a number of destructive captaincy hauls going around this season and it appears that David has hit a number of these and Jay hasn't, reflected by their difference in total captaincy score of 574 v 418 respectively.

I also seem to remember from the various videos FFS have produced this year that David often simply didn't need to make a transfer (16 of the 34 weeks of the season he carried a transfer). And of these I think there were goalkeeper transfers in there and even a 1 week hokey cokey transfer involving Shaqiri. When you've got the luxury of being able to make moves like that things have definately fallen into place. Maybe he does give bad advice but whatever he's doing this season is working, in marked contrast to his previous campaigns.

Or maybe Mark Sutherns is just telling him who to bring in every week! :lol:
With regards to David Munday’s improved ranking/performance it’s pretty clear to me the reasons why and I don’t think he’s getting enough credit.

Tl:dr he’s had a much better season, because he’s now a much better manager, taking the game far more seriously.

He’s spending at least 40 hours a week on FPL for his job. That’s somewhere around 1,600 hours since he took the job in June (ish?). He’s embedded in the members area of FFS and I’d wager he spends way more hours than anyone else looking through stats, game footage, writing about the game (regardless of the quality).
If you invest that much time in something you can’t fail to improve at it.
Additionally, he has now got more experienced FPL managers as colleagues with whom to seek their opinion or ask advice on matters if necessary. Not that much different to posting on forums, Slack channels etc though imo.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Sutter Kane » 20 Apr 2019, 07:09

dino1980 wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 02:38
With regards to David Munday’s improved ranking/performance it’s pretty clear to me the reasons why and I don’t think he’s getting enough credit.

Tl:dr he’s had a much better season, because he’s now a much better manager, taking the game far more seriously.

He’s spending at least 40 hours a week on FPL for his job. That’s somewhere around 1,600 hours since he took the job in June (ish?). He’s embedded in the members area of FFS and I’d wager he spends way more hours than anyone else looking through stats, game footage, writing about the game (regardless of the quality).
If you invest that much time in something you can’t fail to improve at it.
Additionally, he has now got more experienced FPL managers as colleagues with whom to seek their opinion or ask advice on matters if necessary. Not that much different to posting on forums, Slack channels etc though imo.
:arrow: Elephant in the room though Dino: his captain score. Now I'm very interested if the research he's doing has got him that humungous total (more than the current leader) but imo he won't do it again next year. We'll see. To be fair Sutherns has 582 so maybe Munday is listening in a little...like I said, if you can garner that kind of ppg for your captain through research, I might have to start digging through endless stats next year.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 20 Apr 2019, 11:00

Just as an extra note...

Please don't take any of the above as a self-apology about how bad my season has been. It has been bad. I haven't played well and almost everything I have done since GW1 has gone pear-shaped. I am well aware that is partly down to having a big home move to navigate and also to having lost a bit of interest. To be honest, I'm not really even sure what my mistakes have been because I haven't felt like analysing them. Maybe I will later on. But none of what I have written here is meant to be a personal apologia. I was just answering what Ragamuffin asked about really. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by TheRumourMill » 23 Apr 2019, 13:11

dino1980 wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 02:38
TheRumourMill wrote:
17 Apr 2019, 17:00
And in a neat contrast, David Munday who Ruth slated above is ahead of all 5 of these consistent top players :lol:

Has anyone genuinely got an explanation for this? From my own observations this season it seems like David has come out the right side of varience fairly consistently whereas people like Jay haven't. Theres been quite a number of destructive captaincy hauls going around this season and it appears that David has hit a number of these and Jay hasn't, reflected by their difference in total captaincy score of 574 v 418 respectively.

I also seem to remember from the various videos FFS have produced this year that David often simply didn't need to make a transfer (16 of the 34 weeks of the season he carried a transfer). And of these I think there were goalkeeper transfers in there and even a 1 week hokey cokey transfer involving Shaqiri. When you've got the luxury of being able to make moves like that things have definately fallen into place. Maybe he does give bad advice but whatever he's doing this season is working, in marked contrast to his previous campaigns.

Or maybe Mark Sutherns is just telling him who to bring in every week! :lol:
With regards to David Munday’s improved ranking/performance it’s pretty clear to me the reasons why and I don’t think he’s getting enough credit.

Tl:dr he’s had a much better season, because he’s now a much better manager, taking the game far more seriously.

He’s spending at least 40 hours a week on FPL for his job. That’s somewhere around 1,600 hours since he took the job in June (ish?). He’s embedded in the members area of FFS and I’d wager he spends way more hours than anyone else looking through stats, game footage, writing about the game (regardless of the quality).
If you invest that much time in something you can’t fail to improve at it.
Additionally, he has now got more experienced FPL managers as colleagues with whom to seek their opinion or ask advice on matters if necessary. Not that much different to posting on forums, Slack channels etc though imo.
All good points. Hopefully at the end of the season FFS take the time to analyse David's improved performance on the scoutcast, would potentially make quite an interesting case study for those "average" FPL managers looking to improve.

I noticed we jinxed him on captaincy this week though - he went for KdB! Thats just bad luck though tbf.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dod » 09 May 2019, 16:44

Ruth_NZ wrote:
20 Apr 2019, 11:00
Just as an extra note...

Please don't take any of the above as a self-apology about how bad my season has been. It has been bad. I haven't played well and almost everything I have done since GW1 has gone pear-shaped. I am well aware that is partly down to having a big home move to navigate and also to having lost a bit of interest. To be honest, I'm not really even sure what my mistakes have been because I haven't felt like analysing them. Maybe I will later on. But none of what I have written here is meant to be a personal apologia. I was just answering what Ragamuffin asked about really. :)
I feel much the same way Ruth. I had major building work done on my flat and didn't even have electricity and water for weeks. It's hard to spend much time thinking about FPL under those circumstances and it kind of killed my season.

Next season though ... :lol:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by I Am Ville » 30 Jul 2019, 23:26

Eagerly awaiting your return, Ruth.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 09 Aug 2019, 08:50

An Idiosyncratic Season Preview

I won't be playing FPL this season. My time is limited and I have other things that need my focus. So I have decided to have a year off.

Despite this, I do intend to keep a casual eye on the game (and will possibly join a draft league later on). So I might intermittently post some thoughts here. If so, they will be quite random and perhaps idiosyncratic. But they might also be mildly interesting, who knows?

Anyway, partly in order to assuage any last-minute temptations I might have to enter a team, I am going to make a small commentary on players I like the look of for this season. But bear in mind that what follows doesn't necessarily reflect what I would do with a GW1 team. I haven't studied the fixtures at all and therefore don't know whether I'd be going for a GW1 BB (more likely than not) or whether I'd be envisaging an early wildcard. The GW1 team needs to reflect your season strategy as far as I am concerned, and I don't have one.

So what follows is primarily based on price - players that I think are under-valued in the game. It would be my starting idea before getting into the detail of a GW1 team, something that I won't be doing. I will probably finish this with a GW1 selection but that should be considered as a kind of first draft that I'd have before looking at the game strategy.

If it matters, I have not read a single word on FFS or anywhere else, so this is my own list. That's what I do every season with the GW1 selection, apart from reading the FFS article about pre-season minutes played (which I didn't do this time).

Arsenal

May as well start with a comment about Europa League. Statistically, playing EL has a negative effect and those teams that qualified for it through league position suffer a drop of around 10 points (or 3 PL places) on average in that season. But that doesn't tell the whole story. In my experience (and this is observational rather than calculated) the bigger teams - those who have a big squad containing a lot of CL experience - suffer far less than smaller clubs with less European experience. For example, the EL probably helped Chelsea last season because the Group Stage was really easy for a team of Chelsea's calibre and gave an opportunity for very good younger players and/or fringe players to start games. In all honesty, Chelsea didn't face a really tough opponent until the SF stage and of course they went on to win it.

You can contrast that with Burnley's experience where they weren't even able to get through pre-qualifying but took half a season to get back onto an even keel afterwards.

Arsenal have a CL type of squad. It might be short in CL quality (especially in defence) but it is certainly big enough. So I wouldn't really be worrying about an EL effect on them until well after Xmas - once they get to the QF stage (if they do). And that's a long way away. Same will go for United, when we get there, but not for Wolves, who are a different case and a team that I'd expect to suffer some EL challenges knocking on to their PL form.

Arsenal have apparently had a good window, AFTV think so anyway. Personally I'm not so sure and there are no Arsenal players that especially attract me. Sokratis @ 5m is probably a decent enough defender option for a rotation (if you want to use a rotation) although you'd maybe prefer Maitland-Niles while Bellerin is out. But I doubt I'd go there. The midfield looks very meh to me from an FPL viewpoint, Pépé is no bargain at 9.5m even if he settles in fast and personally I tend to avoid new players to the PL until they have. Özil @ 7.5m is the stand-out, of course, if he stays injury-free and starts regularly. But that's a helluva big if.

I do like the look of Lacazette @ 9.5m but he is injured as far as I know. He'd be the most likely Arsenal selection for me but not until he is fit, so not for GW1. Aubameyang is fully priced to his potential and as I'd not trust him as a regular captaincy contender he'd be too expensive for me.

Villa

You have what you expect here, by and large. Much depends on whether you believe Villa will make a good fist of things defensively. With JT on the staff there's a chance of that, in which case Heaton could be an option at 4.5m, he's a very good GK that makes a lot of saves. Targett could offer decent value for a rotation. But I'm not sure I'd go there myself.

The one player that attracts me at Villa is McGinn ***, who I think is more important even than Grealish to them. 5.5m seems a decent price for someone that will probably start every game when fit and who has goals and assists in his locker. He deserves a 3-star rating in my book and I would consider taking a punt on him if I needed a cheap, playing attacker to round off my squad - but not as a bench player, he's too expensive for that.

Bournemouth

These are cleverly priced by FPL, I don't see an obvious mistake. Bournemouth's defence is erratic so I doubt I'd want them in a rotation - not unless I knew who would be their LB this season, and I don't. Fraser and Wilson seem to be correctly priced to me, although Wilson is a streaky player with a long track-record of scoring goals in bunches so it would more be a matter of trying to time it right with him. Having just glanced at Bournemouth's early fixtures, though, they couldn't be much better, so maybe he'd be worth considering from the start. I'll reserve the 3-star rating for Josh King *** though; 6.5m seems good to me and he could well find a place in my squad.

BHA

Depends whether Hughton learned from last season and also how he reacts to the fans. For FPL purposes we want the deep-defending Brighton which he reverted to later on last season having tried to play more expansively. Problem is that the fans and board seem to want some excitement and don't seem to value the dogged negativity that we FPL managers so prize. :wink:

Be that as it may, clearly the likes of Dunk can offer good value in a rotation. Maupay is the one that most interests me, however; at 6m he seems to have a lot going for him. I'd probably give him a 3-star rating if it didn't break my rule about not selecting players new to the PL, especially those that have also changed club.

Burnley

This is all about Nick Pope ***** surely? Burnley GKs are usually great investments and if we ignore the EL-affected first half of last season there's no reason to think Pope won't be exactly that in 19/20. At 4.5m he's my first 5-star selection and the only reason I'd consider looking elsewhere would be if I decided on a premium GK. I can't imagine I would, though.

I wouldn't want to be paying 5m for a Burnley defender and don't know how secure the FB positions are, so that actually makes Pope the best route in on that score too. But if Taylor is going to be the regular LB (or Lowton the regular RB) then I'd even consider a double-up here (with the defender in a rotation). I think with Burnley you know what you are going to get and you can't say that for a lot of teams. Adding Drinkwater will only make them even more solid as far as I can see.

In attack, I think Barnes is pickable but also priced to his potential, so no star rating for him.

Chelsea

Chelsea are interesting and as a supporter I am really looking forward to this season. The transfer ban was the blessing-in-disguise that many fans have waited for because at long last the club are forced to give a proper chance to our excellent academy graduates. I did expect to be giving a high star-rating to Mason Mount, long a well-kept secret at Chelsea, because I think he will play more than most imagine, especially while RLC is out. But 6m kills that; he is over-priced unfortunately. :(

The same can't be said for Pulisic ****! 7.5m is a price tag I expect him to make a mockery of, so much so that I'm willing to disregard my rule about new players to the PL and give him a 4-star. He's the clear stand-out option in the Chelsea attack for me, at least until RLC and CHO are fit again. Tammy Abraham has been prolific at all levels but I'm not sure whether he'll nail the striker position yet - and neither are FPL who have priced all 3 strikers at 7m.

I am also going to give Zouma *** a star-rating. Just about cheap enough to be part of a rotation, in a good enough defence to play every week and nailed at least until Rüdiger is fit again (though he's not far away by all accounts). Luiz being sold is a clear message about Zouma and I think Lampard rates him highly. He's well worth a go in my opinion.

Palace

No-one at Palace interests me really, though I doubt Cahill would have gone there without some assurances about game time. He could be a good rotation option at 4.5m. Milivojevic is ridiculously over-priced at 7m, I'm having none of it. Palace can't have yet another season with so many penalties and the idea that he's the same price as Zaha is nonsensical in my book. The only thing that prevents me from giving Zaha 3 stars is his current mental state after his failure to get a move.

Despite Palace having decent early fixtures, I think I'd want to see how things shape up before investing there.

Everton

As far as I can see, the Everton defence is generally over-priced. Zouma will be a big loss to them and Digne may well struggle to justify 6m. But Everton do have a decent start in terms of fixtures and I'd not put anyone off starting with Digne or Coleman. Not enough for a star-rating though. In addition, it may well be worth adding Delph to the watchlist, because he's probably OOP (will play in midfield) and should start regularly when fit.

Same goes in the midfield with the one exception of Iwobi ***. At 6m, the one thing that prevents me from giving him a 4th star is the uncertainty of where he will play, because you'd imagine that Kean gets the striker slot and that means Richarlison wide. Does Iwobi start every game? You'd imagine so but I have enough uncertainty not to go overboard with him.

Leicester

...are a team I expect good things of this season. Evans *** looks a very good buy at 5m to me, as do Maddison*** and Perez**** at 7m and 6.5m respectively. My only reservation is that I'm not 100% how Rodgers will line them up in terms of formation and exactly where Perez will play. Off Vardy maybe? If so he has to be a snip at his price.

Jamie Vardy is a player you can never put anyone off but I do think that at 9m he is priced to his full potential, hence no star rating.

Liverpool

Nothing much to say here. I'm not going to give any star-ratings apart from Allison *** and VVD *** because I don't see any obvious bargains and the outfield players are all priced to their full potential. At the same time, it is almost inconceivable that you would go into the season without at least one Liverpool defender, probably VVD because he's 0.5m cheaper. Though I personally like TAA a lot, I'm just a bit disappointed with his price.

Salah is not cheap but is as good a captaincy candidate as anyone in the game. Personally I think he's priced at a level where you can go either way with him. But hey, Liverpool will be one of the most discussed teams in FPL I'm sure, so no-one needs more about them from me. :lol:

City

Similar comments apply for City, though I do think that Zinchenko **** is well worth starting with until Mendy is fit. Laporte *** looks a solid pick at 6.5m once he is fully fit, similar to VVD really. And if Allison has 3 stars then so must Ederson *** at the same price, though I do prefer Pope to either myself.

In the midfield, I am a big fan of Sterling ****, even at 12m. Sané's injury increases Sterling from 3 to 4 stars in my book and also gets Bernardo *** on the star list, though I do have a feeling we will see more of Mahrez this season and he could affect Bernardo's gametime so that needs watching. I prefer Sterling to Aguero at the same price and don't think it would be good FPL management to have both when you can only captain one in any given game. If you have 2 12m players they need to give you captain alternatives.

Lastly, KDB is not a player to put anyone off but he's priced 0.5m too high to get a 3-star rating from me, because you will never captain him (unless you plan to go without both Sterling and Kun).

United

Well, here comes my 2nd 5-star candidate in the shape of Martial *****. He's (wrongly) classified as a midfielder whereas he will mainly be a wide (and sometimes central) forward and his price is stupidly low. I think he's a 9m midfielder myself and also suspect he will put previous performance in the PL in the shade this season. Lukaku leaving only adds to the attraction. No-brainer.

I like United this season, not that I expect them to necessarily make the top-4 but what they have done in the transfer market takes the pressure off. They are clearly building a new team and will give it time. There will be ups-and-downs but I expect plenty of goals along the way. And EL football will also help; them in order to give starts to talented youngsters like Greenwood and FPL managers in that it will likely make team selection for the PL that bit more predictable. That's the difference between EL and CL; in the CL you have to play strong teams in both competitions whereas in the EL you can kind of have a PL team and a EL team if your squad is big enough. Which United's is.

I was expecting to go with Lindelöf as a 3-star choice in defence but having seen that Maguire **** is the same price, it has to be him. And his goal threat merits 4 stars, not 3. He is under-priced by 0.5m I think, especially when you get DDG factored into the 5.5m you are paying.

Alexis Sanchez almost merits a 3-star himself because his price is crazy low too. But how often will he start? If injuries intervene - anything that makes him a secure starter - then he automatically becomes a serious option. I don't like Rashford at 8.5m but for a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 structure would be well happy with Greenwood at 4.5m because he'll often get on as a sub I think and that's always nice, even in a player you are benching every week.

Newcastle

I see nothing to get excited about here and think they may well get relegated. Bruce can organise a team defensively, so you wouldn't put anyone off Lascelles as part of a defensive rotation I guess. They will have high hoped from Joelinton but his career record isn't that wonderful, they have bought potential really. He could be value at 6m but I'd rather see him show that first.

Norwich

As usual with promoted teams, nothing there to interest me until I have seen it really. Plus I know very little about their players apart from Byram, who I know is a good attacking FB. But are there many CSs to be expected there?

Blades

Same comments. Wouldn't be tempted in the slightest really.

Southampton

You could maybe look at a defender for a rotation but I'm not sure which one. I wouldn't want to pay 5m and am not sure whether any of the 4.5m options (Yoshida?) will start regularly. So I'll just give 3 stars to Danny Ings ***, despite the uncertainty about his ability to stay fit, because if he does he has to be way better value than most of the alternatives at that price level.


Spurs

Difficult one. A Spurs defender at 5.5m is a good deal and worth 3 stars. But which one will start regularly? Others may know but I don't, it's all a bit uncertain to me until I see what Pochettino actually does. Same goes in the midfield, especially with Son & Alli injured (and I think Son is now priced to his potential anyway). Which leaves Harry Kane *** @ 11m but you'd have to get over the fact that he seldom starts the season fast to get him in GW1. From what I have seen he has been scoring goals in pre-season, though, so maybe this is the season when the August hoodoo is dispelled.

Watford

A reliable team and I'm pretty sure I'd be wanting a 4.5m Watford defender as part of a defensive rotation. I'd need to check out the likely starting defence but I imagine Cathcart is fairly secure? In which case he'd be fine. I am also going to give Doucouré *** 3 stars because I think he's a genuine 6m+ player. People think of him as a DM but he really isn't, he's a box-to-box player that has a big presence when he arrives in the box. I like him as a set-and-forget in my midfield.

I also like to potential of Ismaïla Sarr @ 6.5m. He has goals and (especially) assists in his locker and can also play as CF or 2nd striker. He's Watford's record signing so should be given a run and has the benefit of being classifield as a midfielder (which Deulofeu isn't). The only reason I am reserving a star rating is because he is new to England and to the PL. But he should be one for the watchlist I think.

Irons

There's a lot to like here. I can't look beyond Issa Diop *** for my defender rotation and I think he's a player you could start in FPL almost every week - in 80% of his games anyway. Pellegrini knows how to organise a defence and I'd expect West Ham to improve in terms of CSs this season.

In the midfield, Anderson *** seems at least decent value @ 7m, and it could be worth keeping an eye on Yarmolenko @ 6m too. I also wouldn't put anyone off Haller @ 7.5m but he's new to the PL (and to England) so no stars. But all in all I think West Ham have options to help FPL managers at the start of this season.

Wolves

I expect them to be troubled by the EL this season but quite possibly not immediately. Sometimes teams that have to qualify (like Wolves) get a fast start in the PL because they are more advanced in fitness; Wolves have already played 3 competitive games whereas the rest are still completing pre-season.

I think Wolves' early fixtures would put me off a defender, though, and I am dubious that Doherty represents value at 6m. Boly *** @ 5m would be more to my taste. However, there is one player so well priced that he has to get 4 stars irrespective of fixtures and the EL effect and that is Diogo Jota ****. Personally I can't see why anyone would pay 1m more for Jiménez.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 09 Aug 2019, 08:58

So...

1st Draft GW1 Team

Before considering fixtures and/or a potential GW1BB (which would require an initial re-structure to this with the addition of a couple of Watford players, for example):

Pope
Zouma Maguire VVD Zinchenko
Sterling KDB Pulisic Martial
Kane(c) King

Button Diop Hayden Greenwood
98.5m


The 1.5m banked allows Zinchenko :arrow: Laporte when appropriate. Jota vs King is an even call.

Have a good season!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by blahblah » 09 Aug 2019, 08:59

Top stuff, except BHA have a shiny new attack focussed manager 😉

Why no Barkley love?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Billy Bongo » 09 Aug 2019, 10:33

Excellent write up, I look forward to your sleeper team doing remarkably well and you suddenly start playing again gwk3

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 09 Aug 2019, 10:41

Some reassuring and some interesting observations.

Be well Ruth, I hope whatever is keeping you busy is keeping you happy. SP

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Tall Paul » 09 Aug 2019, 11:05

Great stuff Ruth.

I'll miss this thread this season :cry:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul » 09 Aug 2019, 11:23

I think we will all miss being challenged by your thoughtful posts. I hope all is good and thanks for your analysis.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 09 Aug 2019, 12:03

blahblah wrote: Top stuff, except BHA have a shiny new attack focused manager. 😉
Why no Barkley love?
Ah yes, that happened ages ago and I had forgotten. All the more reason for a watching posture then.
Don't know about Barkley. Somehow I don't expect him to play enough though I may be wrong. Whenever he starts, Lampard will be itching to bring Mount on for him anyway.
Billy Bongo wrote: Excellent write up, I look forward to your sleeper team doing remarkably well and you suddenly start playing again gwk3.
Last season I was OR 334 or something after GW1 and steadily downhill thereafter. So a decent position after GW2 would be no guide. :lol:
But no, it is a conscious decision not to partake and I won't have a sleeper team because that means having a team. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by No Way Jose » 09 Aug 2019, 12:47

Glad you’re still alive legend!

Your write up definitely helped confirm some of my own thoughts amidst the panic of deadline day. I’ve gotta decide before bed in and so making my calls in the next hour really.

You should enter a set and forget team mate in case you want to come back to it later. St the risk of a blip on your record though I guess so maybe not..

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by The Real Slim Shady » 09 Aug 2019, 15:40

Pope

TAA, AWB, Digne, Rico, Zinchenko

Salah, Sterling, Perez

Kane, Jimenez

Heaton, Dendoncker, Greenwood, Hayden

Thoughts?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by shmiro » 09 Aug 2019, 16:58

Great stuff!

I was also all about Zinchenko but the Cancelo transfer + Pellegrini comments regarding him and Walker suggests he might not play as much as was expected. Don’t you think?


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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Mo Bot » 09 Aug 2019, 16:59

Enjoy your hiatus Ruth. See you next season....or in GW3

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Owsler » 09 Aug 2019, 17:07

Ruth_NZ wrote:
09 Aug 2019, 08:58
So...

1st Draft GW1 Team

Before considering fixtures and/or a potential GW1BB (which would require an initial re-structure to this with the addition of a couple of Watford players, for example):

Pope
Zouma Maguire VVD Zinchenko
Sterling KDB Pulisic Martial
Kane(c) King

Button Diop Hayden Greenwood
98.5m


The 1.5m banked allows Zinchenko :arrow: Laporte when appropriate. Jota vs King is an even call.


Have a good season!
V similar to my team, taking out King for Adams, Zouma for TAA, VVD for Robertson, KDB for Perez, Hayden for Dendoncker.

Actually took out KDB for Pulisic earlier today.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 10 Aug 2019, 12:34

Draft GW1 BB Team

I do like the GW1 BB as I think it is clearly the best time to play it as long as the fixtures work. I haven't done my usual thorough research (which I'd do if actually playing) but just for my own interest I have had a look to see what my GW1 BB team might have looked like. Something like this I think:

Pope Travers
Femenia Maitland-Niles VVD Zinchenko Rico
Sterling KDB Doucouré Pulisic Martial
King Kane(c) Origi

100.0m Theoretical BB


The GW1 BB would have required 6 changes from my original draft, essentially upgrading the bench and releasing the cash for that by removing a premium defender (Maguire, who has a poor first couple of fixtures anyway). Zouma and Diop would also be removed given their tricky first fixtures, so Button, Zouma, Maguire, Diop, Hayden, Greenwood out for Travers, Femenia, Maitland-Niles, Rico, Doucouré and Origi.

When playing the GW1BB, it gives you the opportunity to be more opportunistic with players that look good for GW1 (such as Maitland-Niles & Origi) but may need replacing sooner rather than later. You are essentially accepting that you will wildcard early if you need to, or otherwise that you will need to use early transfers to correct your squad structure. In this case the primary correction would be Doucouré :arrow: 4.5m bench midfielder, allowing Femenia :arrow: Maguire but that could easily wait until GW3 and be done with 2 FTs. You also hope, of course, to get enough of a boost from the GW1 BB to justify a hit if you need one, or if that means you can keep the wildcard until later.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 10 Aug 2019, 13:08

...although actually it may not be as simple as I thought now I look at it dispassionately.

My biggest issue with the late (DGW) BB is that it 'forces' the 2nd wildcard, tends to cause unseen costs (hits) to unwind from it and also compromises a smooth flow through the DGW/BGW period. But looking at this neutrally, isn't it so that the GW1 BB either 'forces' the 1st wildcard or (most likely) requires subsequent hits in order to correct the structure afterwards? So you have to be very careful in evaluating it.

For example, in my draft above, I added Doucouré. I could have just taken a 4.5m midfielder (Hayden or Romeu) in that slot and saved a transfer later. It would weaken the BB but reduce the correction required afterwards. So really it would be a matter of deciding whether 2 weeks of Doucouré adds enough to justify a likely -4 points. I'd probably take him anyway, because he's on my short-list and there's a chance I might decide to keep him, but the one thing that I believe you have to fully buy into with the early BB is that you will correct fast afterwards, even if that means a hit or hits. Last season I did very well with the GW1 BB (20 points and an OR of 334) but on reflection I should probably have given some of that advantage back and corrected faster.

It's interesting, this not playing lark. Maybe I will learn as much this season by not playing as I ever did by playing, because I'm not personally involved with the ups-and-downs of a team. :shock:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 10 Aug 2019, 13:25

Good to see you around Ruth and to read your comments.
Enjoy your sabbatical.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul » 10 Aug 2019, 13:30

Maybe you will - interesting perspective with no temptations to worry about. I think we all hope your observations keep coming, so I hope you do indeed learn things and choose to share.

Re the GW1 BB, I think you are right. The "perfect" GW1 BB squad almost certainly requires a WC or a hit to repair things.

Bet a fair few out there are sitting on Origi BB squads and licking their lips.

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