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R_NZ RMT Blog

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 12 Jan 2019, 12:54

Striker wrote: Ruth - I guess that whenever you put a bet on a horse you always write E-W after the horse's name. :wink:
No, I seldom bet any more but when I do it is almost always to win. Difference being that I don't generally place a bet unless I have an edge. :wink:
hancockjr wrote:I looked at bookmaker's odds and Hazard was almost the same as Auba to score. Coupled with being a mid (extra point per goal, clean sheet potential) and at least equal assist chance (probably better) it was an easy decision from there. Assuming the bookies have it right.
I would never make that assumption and generally don't even bother to look at them.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 12 Jan 2019, 13:23

10k EO This Week

AWB 63%
Digne 59%
Robertson 58%

Salah 128%
Hazard 94%
Richarlison 67%
Pogba 60%

Kane 65%
Rashford 47%
Aubameyang 41%

So, I have 106% of Hazard's points and 59% of Aubameyang's points in my favour, and 128% of Salah's against me (in crude terms).
Had I captained Aubameyang it would have been 159% of his points and 6% of Hazard's.
I think I'm relatively happy with the way I have managed it. :)

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ragamuffin
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin » 14 Jan 2019, 10:44

Ruth_NZ wrote:
12 Jan 2019, 12:54
Striker wrote: Ruth - I guess that whenever you put a bet on a horse you always write E-W after the horse's name. :wink:
No, I seldom bet any more but when I do it is almost always to win. Difference being that I don't generally place a bet unless I have an edge. :wink:
hancockjr wrote:I looked at bookmaker's odds and Hazard was almost the same as Auba to score. Coupled with being a mid (extra point per goal, clean sheet potential) and at least equal assist chance (probably better) it was an easy decision from there. Assuming the bookies have it right.
I would never make that assumption and generally don't even bother to look at them.
Just out of curiosity Ruth why dont you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?

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Archy
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy » 14 Jan 2019, 13:04

Rashford in (for Kane, if injured, for Aub, if not) seems like a no-brainer this week. What are you going to do with the spare dosh Ruth?

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 14 Jan 2019, 22:01

No Salah Experiment Aborted

Kane's injury takes away the final reason not to have Salah. I know that nothing is confirmed but the news that it is the same ankle as he already had trouble with was enough for me. I had him in mind as my GW23 captain and that now becomes very moot. I wouldn't mind betting against Salah if I had a captain as good or better but I now don't see one. So I have done Kane, Anderson :arrow: Rashford, Salah (-4) and made an end of the matter.

GW21 Hazard 3pts v Salah 2pts; Captaincy N/A; Total +1.
GW22 Hazard x2 10pts v Salah x2 22pts; Total -12.

Adding 4 points for the hit now taken that means the net cost to me of the manouevre was -15 points. To put that in context, Playing Button over Fabianski in GW22 cost me 7 points on its own. :shock: Oh, how happy it would have made me had he saved Salah's penalty. :lol:

I don't think any conclusion can be drawn about a player being "essential" in all honesty. The fact is that Liverpool have had 4 penalties awarded in the last 4 PL games, all without Milner on the pitch and 3 of them taken by Salah. I wish the 4th one had been too; he was my captain that week. :wink: But the continual returns he has had have relied on a rate of penalty awards that is unusual to say the least. Unfortunately for me, he had another in GW22 and my captain (Hazard) didn't. Just one of those things.

The strange thing is that my expectation of GW21/22 (the 2 games I have been without Salah) played out pretty exactly. I thought both would be tough for Liverpool, and they were. I also thought that Klopp would not chase the PL title by all-out-attack and his comments after the Brighton game confirm that. I think doubling on the Liverpool defence may even be more important in the long run than having Salah. But not in GW23.

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Smurphy's Paw
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 14 Jan 2019, 22:21

GW23 Prediction : Mo Salah (2)

If so I’ll be thanking you, Ruth :wink: :mrgreen:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 14 Jan 2019, 22:38

What are your thoughts in the short term for the Liverpool defence double up? Feel like I want to ditch Alonso but worried about a potential DGW25.

Unlucky on the Salah ditching, think the logic was sound!

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Smurphy's Paw
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 14 Jan 2019, 22:57

poke face, I know you’re asking Ruth about the Liverpool defensive double up but if it helps I’ve just gone for it

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 14 Jan 2019, 23:29

Cheers Smurphy, that’s good to know. I only brought it up as Ruth mentioned it, as it was more on the planning side for me, so trying to get as many viewpoints.

It’s not a move I can make right now, as it would have to be for Alonso, and there is some vague potential for a DGW25 if they progress, so hanging onto him for now, but may move next week, seems the best use of Liverpool assets to me (Salah + 2 Def)

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Archy
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy » 16 Jan 2019, 11:39

Personally, with TAA also out the obvious moves for me to triple up on Liverpool (using the Rashford money) were TAA :arrow: Robertson and Richarlison :arrow: Mane (Already have Salah, obviously :wink: )

I think Mane is being overlooked by many so he is now a nice differential to have. The next 4 games look ripe for pickings :D

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Kuchi
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Kuchi » 17 Jan 2019, 09:33

Ruth whats your thoughts on Firmino? Not sure I like the idea of a double up when Klopp could start trying to close games sooner rather than later.

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ragamuffin
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin » 17 Jan 2019, 10:41

Out of curiosity Ruth why dont you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Jan 2019, 22:19

In explanation of my slow response... I am currently in Wales re-decorating our new home. It's a bit chaotic as the heating system isn't working, and is needing attention when I have enough to do already. So, long days and very little time for FPL or anything else apart from following the chaos at Westminster, compared to which our circumstances here are a model of good order. :wink:

It's going to be a few weeks before we are settled in; the move hasn't happened yet, this is just preparation. So best not to expect much sense from me, or much from me at all really.
Kuchi wrote: Ruth whats your thoughts on Firmino? Not sure I like the idea of a double up when Klopp could start trying to close games sooner rather than later.
I don't like Firmino or any other Liverpool attacker than Salah really. Reason being that I expect Liverpool to defend their way to the title. Not as extremely as Mourinho's Chelsea did in 2014/15 perhaps but certainly not gung-ho. Klopp's comments post-Brighton just confirm what I thought; that he is going to be pragmatic and look to control games. The blatant (and successful) attempt to get out of the FA Cup early just emphasises that further. Others may see it differently; that's up to them and I won't bother arguing. But that is my assessment. Therefore I want 2 defenders + Salah, who I think will be a safe and good captain option most weeks (and there's really no sense in being without him while Kane is out).
ragamuffin wrote: Out of curiosity Ruth why don't you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?
I was trained as a bookie back in the day and worked in the industry to help me through University. So I know how the odds work and why they are the way they are. They are not an expression of probability, they are an expression of the bookies' prediction (usually pretty accurate) about which options will be more or less popular. Personally I think that if my judgement about FPL points potential isn't better than the bookies' goalscorer odds then I should probably give up FPL.

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Kuchi
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Kuchi » 18 Jan 2019, 10:36

Moving home! Ahhh the stress .... I just wasn't sold on the Firmino/Salah double up although when Bobby goes on a run it is very profitable points wise. Agree with your thinking of double Liv defence too. Think there is still a long way to go fantasy wise this season so these sorts of decisions will (hopefully) pay off big.

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