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Ruth_NZ
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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 12 Jan 2019, 12:54

Striker wrote: Ruth - I guess that whenever you put a bet on a horse you always write E-W after the horse's name. :wink:
No, I seldom bet any more but when I do it is almost always to win. Difference being that I don't generally place a bet unless I have an edge. :wink:
hancockjr wrote:I looked at bookmaker's odds and Hazard was almost the same as Auba to score. Coupled with being a mid (extra point per goal, clean sheet potential) and at least equal assist chance (probably better) it was an easy decision from there. Assuming the bookies have it right.
I would never make that assumption and generally don't even bother to look at them.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 12 Jan 2019, 13:23

10k EO This Week

AWB 63%
Digne 59%
Robertson 58%

Salah 128%
Hazard 94%
Richarlison 67%
Pogba 60%

Kane 65%
Rashford 47%
Aubameyang 41%

So, I have 106% of Hazard's points and 59% of Aubameyang's points in my favour, and 128% of Salah's against me (in crude terms).
Had I captained Aubameyang it would have been 159% of his points and 6% of Hazard's.
I think I'm relatively happy with the way I have managed it. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin » 14 Jan 2019, 10:44

Ruth_NZ wrote:
12 Jan 2019, 12:54
Striker wrote: Ruth - I guess that whenever you put a bet on a horse you always write E-W after the horse's name. :wink:
No, I seldom bet any more but when I do it is almost always to win. Difference being that I don't generally place a bet unless I have an edge. :wink:
hancockjr wrote:I looked at bookmaker's odds and Hazard was almost the same as Auba to score. Coupled with being a mid (extra point per goal, clean sheet potential) and at least equal assist chance (probably better) it was an easy decision from there. Assuming the bookies have it right.
I would never make that assumption and generally don't even bother to look at them.
Just out of curiosity Ruth why dont you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy » 14 Jan 2019, 13:04

Rashford in (for Kane, if injured, for Aub, if not) seems like a no-brainer this week. What are you going to do with the spare dosh Ruth?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 14 Jan 2019, 22:01

No Salah Experiment Aborted

Kane's injury takes away the final reason not to have Salah. I know that nothing is confirmed but the news that it is the same ankle as he already had trouble with was enough for me. I had him in mind as my GW23 captain and that now becomes very moot. I wouldn't mind betting against Salah if I had a captain as good or better but I now don't see one. So I have done Kane, Anderson :arrow: Rashford, Salah (-4) and made an end of the matter.

GW21 Hazard 3pts v Salah 2pts; Captaincy N/A; Total +1.
GW22 Hazard x2 10pts v Salah x2 22pts; Total -12.

Adding 4 points for the hit now taken that means the net cost to me of the manouevre was -15 points. To put that in context, Playing Button over Fabianski in GW22 cost me 7 points on its own. :shock: Oh, how happy it would have made me had he saved Salah's penalty. :lol:

I don't think any conclusion can be drawn about a player being "essential" in all honesty. The fact is that Liverpool have had 4 penalties awarded in the last 4 PL games, all without Milner on the pitch and 3 of them taken by Salah. I wish the 4th one had been too; he was my captain that week. :wink: But the continual returns he has had have relied on a rate of penalty awards that is unusual to say the least. Unfortunately for me, he had another in GW22 and my captain (Hazard) didn't. Just one of those things.

The strange thing is that my expectation of GW21/22 (the 2 games I have been without Salah) played out pretty exactly. I thought both would be tough for Liverpool, and they were. I also thought that Klopp would not chase the PL title by all-out-attack and his comments after the Brighton game confirm that. I think doubling on the Liverpool defence may even be more important in the long run than having Salah. But not in GW23.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 14 Jan 2019, 22:21

GW23 Prediction : Mo Salah (2)

If so I’ll be thanking you, Ruth :wink: :mrgreen:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 14 Jan 2019, 22:38

What are your thoughts in the short term for the Liverpool defence double up? Feel like I want to ditch Alonso but worried about a potential DGW25.

Unlucky on the Salah ditching, think the logic was sound!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 14 Jan 2019, 22:57

poke face, I know you’re asking Ruth about the Liverpool defensive double up but if it helps I’ve just gone for it

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 14 Jan 2019, 23:29

Cheers Smurphy, that’s good to know. I only brought it up as Ruth mentioned it, as it was more on the planning side for me, so trying to get as many viewpoints.

It’s not a move I can make right now, as it would have to be for Alonso, and there is some vague potential for a DGW25 if they progress, so hanging onto him for now, but may move next week, seems the best use of Liverpool assets to me (Salah + 2 Def)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Archy » 16 Jan 2019, 11:39

Personally, with TAA also out the obvious moves for me to triple up on Liverpool (using the Rashford money) were TAA :arrow: Robertson and Richarlison :arrow: Mane (Already have Salah, obviously :wink: )

I think Mane is being overlooked by many so he is now a nice differential to have. The next 4 games look ripe for pickings :D

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Kuchi » 17 Jan 2019, 09:33

Ruth whats your thoughts on Firmino? Not sure I like the idea of a double up when Klopp could start trying to close games sooner rather than later.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin » 17 Jan 2019, 10:41

Out of curiosity Ruth why dont you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 17 Jan 2019, 22:19

In explanation of my slow response... I am currently in Wales re-decorating our new home. It's a bit chaotic as the heating system isn't working, and is needing attention when I have enough to do already. So, long days and very little time for FPL or anything else apart from following the chaos at Westminster, compared to which our circumstances here are a model of good order. :wink:

It's going to be a few weeks before we are settled in; the move hasn't happened yet, this is just preparation. So best not to expect much sense from me, or much from me at all really.
Kuchi wrote: Ruth whats your thoughts on Firmino? Not sure I like the idea of a double up when Klopp could start trying to close games sooner rather than later.
I don't like Firmino or any other Liverpool attacker than Salah really. Reason being that I expect Liverpool to defend their way to the title. Not as extremely as Mourinho's Chelsea did in 2014/15 perhaps but certainly not gung-ho. Klopp's comments post-Brighton just confirm what I thought; that he is going to be pragmatic and look to control games. The blatant (and successful) attempt to get out of the FA Cup early just emphasises that further. Others may see it differently; that's up to them and I won't bother arguing. But that is my assessment. Therefore I want 2 defenders + Salah, who I think will be a safe and good captain option most weeks (and there's really no sense in being without him while Kane is out).
ragamuffin wrote: Out of curiosity Ruth why don't you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?
I was trained as a bookie back in the day and worked in the industry to help me through University. So I know how the odds work and why they are the way they are. They are not an expression of probability, they are an expression of the bookies' prediction (usually pretty accurate) about which options will be more or less popular. Personally I think that if my judgement about FPL points potential isn't better than the bookies' goalscorer odds then I should probably give up FPL.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Kuchi » 18 Jan 2019, 10:36

Moving home! Ahhh the stress .... I just wasn't sold on the Firmino/Salah double up although when Bobby goes on a run it is very profitable points wise. Agree with your thinking of double Liv defence too. Think there is still a long way to go fantasy wise this season so these sorts of decisions will (hopefully) pay off big.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Tall Paul » 18 Jan 2019, 15:12

Ruth_NZ wrote:
17 Jan 2019, 22:19
I was trained as a bookie back in the day and worked in the industry to help me through University. So I know how the odds work and why they are the way they are. They are not an expression of probability, they are an expression of the bookies' prediction (usually pretty accurate) about which options will be more or less popular. Personally I think that if my judgement about FPL points potential isn't better than the bookies' goalscorer odds then I should probably give up FPL.
Back in the day, that was probably true, but with the rise in popularity and availablilty of online gambling doesn't the market/wisdom of crowds dictate that bookies' odds will adjust themselves and settle at a level where they give a very good indication of the actual (or at least perceived) probablilities? For example if a bookie sets their odds too high a lot of money will come in and they'll adjust those odds downwards until they're at a level that reflects the market's expectations.

Anyway, I digress. Hope all goes well with your move. I've moved house once in my adult life and it's not something I want to do ever again!

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 18 Jan 2019, 16:42

Tall Paul wrote:Back in the day, that was probably true, but with the rise in popularity and availabililty of online gambling doesn't the market/wisdom of crowds dictate that bookies' odds will adjust themselves and settle at a level where they give a very good indication of the actual (or at least perceived) probablilities? For example if a bookie sets their odds too high a lot of money will come in and they'll adjust those odds downwards until they're at a level that reflects the market's expectations.

Anyway, I digress. Hope all goes well with your move. I've moved house once in my adult life and it's not something I want to do ever again!
No, Paul, that was always the case. There might be an argument that professional gamblers are more accurate now but the principle of adjusting the odds to achieve an over-rounded book was always standard bookmaker practise.

Football betting is a bit different, though. Traditionally it is a fixed-odds market, meaning the odds don't change much. They will do on big markets like 'to win the FA Cup' but much less so on smaller niche markets like '1st goalscorer' or ' anytime goalscorer'. There are a number of ways the bookies use to protect themselves from mistakes. One is in the pricing itself. For example, Aguero is (or was when I last looked) typically around 7/2 to get 2+ goals. Against a very easy opponent maybe 3/1, in a tougher fixture maybe 4/1 or 9/2. But the true underlying odds of an Aguero brace (from memory again) are around 6/1 or 11/2. So there is no chance that the bookies are wrong enough to interest the professionals. These are markets for the low-stake mug punter as far as the bookies are concerned and are based on their knowledge of how those punters bet.

The other protection is that they have all kinds of software to detect unusual betting patterns (too much money on an option) and if they see sign of it they will simply suspend the market or refuse any more bets on that option. As well as raising a flag regarding potential fixing, which is the only way their fixed-odds can be beaten as far as they are concerned.

I would be pretty surprised if these kind of markets were anything that a professional gambler would play in. Which means that they aren't much more than an expression of popular opinion.

As for the rest... thanks! My tea-break is now over and I had better crack on. :wink:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Stena Bib » 18 Jan 2019, 17:27

Ruth_NZ wrote:
17 Jan 2019, 22:19
In explanation of my slow response... I am currently in Wales re-decorating our new home. It's a bit chaotic as the heating system isn't working, and is needing attention when I have enough to do already. So, long days and very little time for FPL or anything else apart from following the chaos at Westminster, compared to which our circumstances here are a model of good order. :wink:

It's going to be a few weeks before we are settled in; the move hasn't happened yet, this is just preparation. So best not to expect much sense from me, or much from me at all really.
Kuchi wrote: Ruth whats your thoughts on Firmino? Not sure I like the idea of a double up when Klopp could start trying to close games sooner rather than later.
I don't like Firmino or any other Liverpool attacker than Salah really. Reason being that I expect Liverpool to defend their way to the title. Not as extremely as Mourinho's Chelsea did in 2014/15 perhaps but certainly not gung-ho. Klopp's comments post-Brighton just confirm what I thought; that he is going to be pragmatic and look to control games. The blatant (and successful) attempt to get out of the FA Cup early just emphasises that further. Others may see it differently; that's up to them and I won't bother arguing. But that is my assessment. Therefore I want 2 defenders + Salah, who I think will be a safe and good captain option most weeks (and there's really no sense in being without him while Kane is out).
ragamuffin wrote: Out of curiosity Ruth why don't you look at bookies odds? I know the odds do not truly reflect the likelihood of said player to score as they have to cover themselves etc but its a pretty good indication of who is more likely to score than the other no?
I was trained as a bookie back in the day and worked in the industry to help me through University. So I know how the odds work and why they are the way they are. They are not an expression of probability, they are an expression of the bookies' prediction (usually pretty accurate) about which options will be more or less popular. Personally I think that if my judgement about FPL points potential isn't better than the bookies' goalscorer odds then I should probably give up FPL.
I find it interesting that many are advocating a double up on the Liverpool defence, VR has gone no Liverpool defence at all !!

Edit: he did a -4 and brought Robertson in :D

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by ragamuffin » 24 Jan 2019, 15:52

Thanks for your detailed answer Ruth but I still think it’s a good gauge to judge which players are more likely to score when it’s a close call and also more handy for clean sheets.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 25 Jan 2019, 12:34

ragamuffin wrote: Thanks for your detailed answer Ruth but I still think it’s a good gauge to judge which players are more likely to score when it’s a close call and also more handy for clean sheets.
Yeah, I do look at the odds sometimes for CSs actually.

With anytime goalscorer. the problem is that we aren't really interested in goals, we are interested in points. That means that assists, BPs (and thus the likelihood of multiple attacking returns such as 1G 1A), CS points for midfielders and so on are also part of the calculus. If I want a reference about points potential I will usually look at the projections in the FFS RMT tool (though I quite often ignore them).

It's also the case that the variance between one player and another (if we are talking about potential captaincy) is often quite slight as far as the bookies are concerned. For example, Aubameyang may be 3/4 (1.75) to score anytime against Cardiff in GW24 with Salah at 4/6 (1.67) against Leicester. But if you convert that into probabilities then Aubameyang has a 57% chance and Salah a 60% chance. There's barely a difference; all it tells you is that both are fairly likely to score, which you knew already before you ever looked. The odds have really given you no additional, useful information.

Another example is that both Jesus and Aguero are 4/7 to score anytime on Saturday against Burnley but obviously whichever of them starts has a better chance. So you need to exercise judgement and I'd say that Jesus is a far more likely scorer than Kun myself because I don't think Kun will start the game. The goalscorer odds are therefore way out of kilter as a predictor, no? But if Aguero doesn't get on the pitch at all then bets on him would be refunded as far as I know so it's not actually that the bookies are nicking anyone's money. It's just an example of how the odds don't reflect probabilities really.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Ruth_NZ » 01 Feb 2019, 13:57

GW25

2 doublers. No chips. No hits. Fingers crossed. :mrgreen:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Nabs Kebabs » 01 Feb 2019, 13:59

Ruth_NZ wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 13:57
GW25

2 doublers. No chips. No hits. Fingers crossed. :mrgreen:
+1

:mrgreen:

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by raoul » 01 Feb 2019, 14:06

+2.

If Wolves and City can both stuff Everton that would be very helpful.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 01 Feb 2019, 16:57

Ditto

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 01 Feb 2019, 17:37

Same. FFS predicting Aguero to be the highest scorer this week with 12 points. Don’t think it’s a week worth going crazy over.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Caf » 01 Feb 2019, 18:30

Looking like that for me too. If Auba can score at the Etihad it’ll brighten my weekend. :)

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by Tall Paul » 01 Feb 2019, 20:17

Another one here.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by From4corners » 01 Feb 2019, 21:21

pokeface wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 17:37
Same. FFS predicting Aguero to be the highest scorer this week with 12 points. Don’t think it’s a week worth going crazy over.
How accurate have these predictions proved to be?

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 01 Feb 2019, 23:19

From4corners wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 21:21
pokeface wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 17:37
Same. FFS predicting Aguero to be the highest scorer this week with 12 points. Don’t think it’s a week worth going crazy over.
How accurate have these predictions proved to be?
No idea, but I’m clinging onto every bit of positivity I can right now 😂.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by dino1980 » 02 Feb 2019, 00:44

pokeface wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 23:19
From4corners wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 21:21
pokeface wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 17:37
Same. FFS predicting Aguero to be the highest scorer this week with 12 points. Don’t think it’s a week worth going crazy over.
How accurate have these predictions proved to be?
No idea, but I’m clinging onto every bit of positivity I can right now 😂.
Think you might be quoting a different source, maybe FFFix? FFScout has Aguero on 9.38, Sane 9.68 and Sterling 11.02.

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Re: R_NZ RMT Blog

Post by pokeface » 02 Feb 2019, 00:52

dino1980 wrote:
02 Feb 2019, 00:44
pokeface wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 23:19
From4corners wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 21:21
pokeface wrote:
01 Feb 2019, 17:37
Same. FFS predicting Aguero to be the highest scorer this week with 12 points. Don’t think it’s a week worth going crazy over.
How accurate have these predictions proved to be?
No idea, but I’m clinging onto every bit of positivity I can right now 😂.
Think you might be quoting a different source, maybe FFFix? FFScout has Aguero on 9.38, Sane 9.68 and Sterling 11.02.
Yes you are correct sorry it was FFFix. I must have looked at them both back to back. Both have Aguero as number 1 polled captain choice is what I think I meant to say.
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