grand national

[em9999]

Took a big gamble on highland lodge to make the cut for the national - 50/1 and if it makes the top 40 it will win the national

I'm backing highland lodge and saint are at 25/1

Almost forgot home farm 100/1 - also holds appeal

[bazJ]

Took a big gamble on highland lodge to make the cut for the national - 50/1 and if it makes the top 40 it will win the national

I'm backing highland lodge and saint are at 25/1

Almost forgot home farm 100/1 - also holds appeal

I've gone for Le Reve 33/1and Katkeau 100/1, need a lot to too drop out for Katkeau though

[Striker]

Took a big gamble on highland lodge to make the cut for the national.

A horse failing to make the cut is one of the few reasons for an ante post bet to be voided.

[bazJ]

Took a big gamble on highland lodge to make the cut for the national.

A horse failing to make the cut is one of the few reasons for an ante post bet to be voided.

Stan James are now doing no runner no bet

[Beerfuelledman]

I forsee a Sat afternoon in the pub with a few flutters. No real idea how to gamble Last goalscorer in a footie match is good crack. Know bigger all about horse racing though. Wheres Andy Luckhurst for some tips

[Richt]

FISO land is very quiet this year with regards to the Grand National

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[Surprised]

Going for:
Soll
Saint Are
Gonnyella
The Druids Nephew

[Richt]

Gone for
Druids Nephew
Shutthefrontdoor
And a small outside bet on Rocky Creek

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[RowdyRaver]

I don't know a lot about horses but most of the favourites are not appealing with small SP's / heavy weights. I've gone for Saint Are

[Dennisthemenace]

Piled in to Nina Carberry to be the first female winning jockey on Sir Des Champs. Watch the odds tumble now I've put my pound each way on.

[llama]

Boston Bob
Druids Nephew
Romford Pelle

[murf]

Any nags that like soggy going?

Think we need a stayer....

Please sponsor me to run the London Marathon :
http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/JasonMurfitt

[forestfan]

Piled in to Nina Carberry to be the first female winning jockey on Sir Des Champs. Watch the odds tumble now I've put my pound each way on.

Not sure if the odds tumbled, but the horse certainly did...

[Shrews2023]

Gosh! Nobody seems to have discussed the Grand National since 2016!

Anyway, back in 2013 the race conditions were changed making it faster but also with a reliance on stamina rather than jumping ability. Basically you've go to jump the fences faster, rather than massive leaps over them. This year the ground will likely be GS but with Good patches. They've watered plenty, but with no rain, warm temperatures and breezy conditions it's been a struggle. I think it likely it will be Good with GS patches come the off, but may not be officially described as such.

Therefore, fast ground performers who can likely last home seems to be the order of the day (likely = either proven over 3m on Good ground or has a pedigree that says they should be able to - "Dosage Index" a typical way of identifying this)

A list of eight with current prices

Minella Cocooner 14/1 a Good ground winner of the Sandown Bet365 Gold Cup towards the end of April last year.
Nick Rockett 25/1 placed third in the same race.
Hyland 20/1 a novice chase winner at Southwell on Good last June over 20f
Senior Chief 33/1 a Good ground winner over 25f at Cheltenham last October
Duffle Coat 33/1 was 2nd in the Galway Plate last July over 22f on Good ground
Twig 50/1 won the Summer Cup in July 2023 at Uttoxeter on Good ground over 26f
Horantzau d'airy 125/1was 2nd in the Grade 3 Munster National at Limerick on Good back in October over 3m
Ida's Boy 100/1 was a winner of a 52k Listed Chase at Kilbeggan over 25f on Good last July

The best Dosage profiles of those above would be Senior Chief and Nick Rockett and they would be my idea of the 1-2. But wouldn't put it past Wille Mullins stamping his genius on the race again with Minella Cocooner following the above home. He also runs four others including last years winner I Am Maximus, who will do well to repeat the win with increased weight, on different ground, with jockey Paul Townend taking a nasty tumble and possibly feeling a little sore this morning. Mullins seems to be more keen on Meetingofthewaters who faded into 7th last year but in his words 'has strengthened up' over the last year and thinks he is well handicapped.

My first 4 home
1. Senior Chief
2. Nick Rockett
3. Minella Cocooner
4. Meetingofthewaters

As always, lots in with chances.

[jacksosi]

My first 4 home
1. Senior Chief
2. Nick Rockett
3. Minella Cocooner
4. Meetingofthewaters

As always, lots in with chances.

Thanks vm, £5 ew on your top two, £170 win

[Shrews2023]

Nice one Jackosi! Always nice to hear if someone makes a little profit.

It's the Scottish and Irish Nationals over the next few weeks of course, with the Scottish this Saturday and the Irish on Easter Monday. The Scottish will be run on Good ground and likely will be a fast running of the race. I like the look of two in the race

1. Olympic Man (Mullins) 8/1- unraced on Good but I think Mullins has had one eye on this race for a while with this horse and he wouldn't run him if he didn't think he'd act on it. The horse was pretty decent on his return in December over nearly 3m at Punchestown after 220 days out, made a lot of jumping errors but still managed to finish 4th. Jumping again let him down in his next race, but then he won next time out when jumping a little better. Think he likely still has plenty of scope to improve and could put it all together for this. GN winning jockey Patrick Mullins rides, aiming to make it an historic double.

2. Our Power (Sam Thomas) 33/1 - Grade 3 winner over 3m at Kempton on Good ground back in 2023 and not run on it since. It's currently GS at Ayr but I think it's likely to be Good, or close to it, by tomorrow afternoon, and he will enjoy that more than many in the race. Think he's a good outside bet, especially with 6 places on offer.

[jacksosi]

Nice one Jackosi! Always nice to hear if someone makes a little profit.

It's the Scottish and Irish Nationals over the next few weeks of course, with the Scottish this Saturday and the Irish on Easter Monday. The Scottish will be run on Good ground and likely will be a fast running of the race. I like the look of two in the race

1. Olympic Man (Mullins) 8/1- unraced on Good but I think Mullins has had one eye on this race for a while with this horse and he wouldn't run him if he didn't think he'd act on it. The horse was pretty decent on his return in December over nearly 3m at Punchestown after 220 days out, made a lot of jumping errors but still managed to finish 4th. Jumping again let him down in his next race, but then he won next time out when jumping a little better. Think he likely still has plenty of scope to improve and could put it all together for this. GN winning jockey Patrick Mullins rides, aiming to make it an historic double.

2. Our Power (Sam Thomas) 33/1 - Grade 3 winner over 3m at Kempton on Good ground back in 2023 and not run on it since. It's currently GS at Ayr but I think it's likely to be Good, or close to it, by tomorrow afternoon, and he will enjoy that more than many in the race. Think he's a good outside bet, especially with 6 places on offer.

Another £25 banked with the 3rd place cheers, maybe I should get you to invest my savings into races

Shame neither of them could hold the lead!

[Shrews2023]

Irish National on Monday, and with Fairyhouse abandoned today I think it's likely the ground will be either Heavy or Soft/Heavy on the day, basically it could turn into a bit of a slog and it doesn't look a particularly strong renewal of the race so I think a decent horse who's a mud lover will stand out and there will be plenty who are a long way straggled out behind.

Bioluminescence is 10's at Bet365 with 6 places on offer and my idea of the winner. This mares' best form is on Heavy and it does look as if her season has been geared towards this race as she didn't start her campaign until the end of December. Aged 7 now which is ideal for the race and improved on her seasonal return. I think it likely this distance will bring the best out of her and she will show she's well ahead of the handicapper.

Any Second Now at 20's with Corals and 6 places was 2nd last year on Heavy and tough as old boots. He may be relishing the challenge when others have cried enough. Just 2 runs since last seasons effort and this race definitely looks like the season's target. Aged 13 now and will be on the decline but no doubt the stable will have him bang on for this.

On the flat, tomorrow (Sunday) at 3.41 is one of Bath's highlights of the season with the Listed Lansdowne Stakes. There's 15 runners which means some will go 4 places and I think the 28/1 with Ladbrokes (4 places) for Woolhampton is too big a price. Improved last year and the challenge this year will be to get a Listed prize to her name, whereas others may well be looking at bigger prizes further down the line. Goes on any ground, I think this will be an early season target that's she's been primed for and that may not be the case for plenty of the others.

[jacksosi]

Irish National on Monday, and with Fairyhouse abandoned today I think it's likely the ground will be either Heavy or Soft/Heavy on the day, basically it could turn into a bit of a slog and it doesn't look a particularly strong renewal of the race so I think a decent horse who's a mud lover will stand out and there will be plenty who are a long way straggled out behind.

Bioluminescence is 10's at Bet365 with 6 places on offer and my idea of the winner. This mares' best form is on Heavy and it does look as if her season has been geared towards this race as she didn't start her campaign until the end of December. Aged 7 now which is ideal for the race and improved on her seasonal return. I think it likely this distance will bring the best out of her and she will show she's well ahead of the handicapper.

Any Second Now at 20's with Corals and 6 places was 2nd last year on Heavy and tough as old boots. He may be relishing the challenge when others have cried enough. Just 2 runs since last seasons effort and this race definitely looks like the season's target. Aged 13 now and will be on the decline but no doubt the stable will have him bang on for this.

On the flat, tomorrow (Sunday) at 3.41 is one of Bath's highlights of the season with the Listed Lansdowne Stakes. There's 15 runners which means some will go 4 places and I think the 28/1 with Ladbrokes (4 places) for Woolhampton is too big a price. Improved last year and the challenge this year will be to get a Listed prize to her name, whereas others may well be looking at bigger prizes further down the line. Goes on any ground, I think this will be an early season target that's she's been primed for and that may not be the case for plenty of the others.

Turned £20 into £33, so 3 profits from 3 races cheers! I prefer the bigger wins tho so let’s get back to that

I presume you are also making a tidy sum?!

[Shrews2023]

Big prices you say?

No bigger price at the moment than Italy at 125/1 to win the Eurovision Song Contest
- 2nd in 2019, won in 2021, 4th in 2023, so we know they do manage to get some votes
- No semi-final shenanigans, they go straight to the final
- song has a decent promo video which has had a few bob spent on it
- singer is a memorable sort of chap
- it doesn't look a strong year. The Swedish favourite is a song about going to the sauna FFS
- the song is a soft rock ballad which he sings well live.

125/1 with 4 places on offer with Bet365, can get more on the Exchanges to win, but Hills, 888, Skybet only going 66/1

As for the racing it's the Guineas weekend and both look tricky. The final decs for the 2000g on Saturday have been made and I'm going for Green Impact who I think can get involved at about 16/1. In the 1000g on Sunday, still waiting on Aiden O'Brien and his plans for Exactly who looks way too big at 33/1. Trouble is she's more likely to go for the French Guineas. Price will crash tomorrow if she's left in for this. If she is absent I like the look of Flight at 33/1. Oisin Murphy rides and she will be more suited to this distance than many in the field. But definitely small stakes.

[Shrews2023]

As I thought, Exactly is a non-runner so my Guineas duo are:

2000g - Green Impact 16/1
1000g - Flight 33/1

Also tomorrow evening is the Kentucky Derby and I like the look of American Promise who is a 33/1 shot. Has a good draw and a trainer who has won the race 5 times

A 1pt ew Patent on those three will pay 23k if they all come in and 370pts if no winners but they all place.

[jacksosi]

As I thought, Exactly is a non-runner so my Guineas duo are:

2000g - Green Impact 16/1
1000g - Flight 33/1

Also tomorrow evening is the Kentucky Derby and I like the look of American Promise who is a 33/1 shot. Has a good draw and a trainer who has won the race 5 times

A 1pt ew Patent on those three will pay 23k if they all come in and 370pts if no winners but they all place.

I think I’ve made an error
I assumed if Exactly withdrew I’d get my bet refunded, but it showing as a loss, seems harsh? Wouldn’t have put it on if I’d known that…doh

[Shrews2023]

Sadly, unless stated otherwise (and usually only for special races), any bet placed before the final declaration of the race classes as an 'antepost' bet and therefore if it's declared a non-runner than you would lose any money staked on it. The plus side is that betting antepost usually gives you better odds, although nowhere near as good as they used to be a few years ago.

And therefore with Exactly you would have lost your stake.

Two losing bets with Green Impact and American Promise, but Flight got the place at 33/1 to ensure a profitable weekend.

Likely bets over the next week may well be at Chester for one or two races and Haydock and Ascot next Saturday

[Shrews2023]

Chester this week. Personally not one of my favourites. Although the viewing is good and it's right in the centre of the city, it's usually rampacked and full of stags and hens. Meh, would much rather a cold, damp, late Autumn day at Ludlow.

That said, the racing at the May meeting is excellent and I've taken a look at the Chester Cup on Friday where I like the chances of three horses who seem to fit the right profile for the race and have backed all three ew antepost with 5 places with Hills. No surprises if there's non-runners. 17 still in at the moment, all with jockeys booked.

Chemistry 22
Zoffee 12
Dawn Rising 20

[Shrews2023]

Meh, Chemistry was a N/R so lost the stake on that one and Dawn Rising was poor, but Zoffee managed the place to claw a little back.

Victoria Cup at Ascot tomorrow (2.40) where I've had a little ew on Metal Merchant at 12/1 with 5 places on offer, whose trainer is in good form and the horse was a length 4th of 18 over CD last July on similar fast ground and comes into the race with a prep run. 18 still entered.

[jacksosi]

Nope

Oh well, it was a good run for a bit…only certs from now on please

[jacksosi]

Big prices you say?

No bigger price at the moment than Italy at 125/1 to win the Eurovision Song Contest
- 2nd in 2019, won in 2021, 4th in 2023, so we know they do manage to get some votes
- No semi-final shenanigans, they go straight to the final
- song has a decent promo video which has had a few bob spent on it
- singer is a memorable sort of chap
- it doesn't look a strong year. The Swedish favourite is a song about going to the sauna FFS
- the song is a soft rock ballad which he sings well live.

125/1 with 4 places on offer with Bet365, can get more on the Exchanges to win, but Hills, 888, Skybet only going 66/1

So close to placing! 5th