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EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

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Will the UK leave on Halloween?

Poll runs till 16 Sep 2019, 08:56

Yes with the May deal
1
2%
Yes with a Boris deal
5
10%
Yes with no deal
13
27%
No there will be a further extension
22
46%
No Article 50 will be revoked
7
15%
 
Total votes: 48

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by blahblah » 15 Aug 2019, 23:32

Billy Whiz wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 23:26
murf wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 14:55
Billy Whiz wrote:Either way, a GE would be a disaster. If the Tories won it would be full steam ahead with No Deal, and if Labour won we'd have Jeremy Corbyn as PM.
More likely we'd have some terrible coalition with a small majority that couldn't agree amongst itself.
Yep, sounds like the Labour party to me!
I'm catching up on Below the Surface BBC I player latest Scandi thing, which is kinda ok etc.

But I put the Cons, Lab and LDem leader and top MP's in it and Jeepers it would be worse than the last few years 😱

Would the BBC remake Killing Eve with the good\funny ones killing politicians?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 15 Aug 2019, 23:33

forestfan wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 17:55
There’s a lot of Meatloaf Remainerism around, i.e. “I’d do anything to stop no-deal, but I won’t do that...” If it comes down to it, maybe people will compromise, though I suspect they will all leave it too late, in which case pretty much all 650 MPs will be culpable.
The real culpability lies with the nearly 500 MPs who voted for Article 50 without reading it - or at least, without reading the bit that said that in the absence of a ratified WA, the default position was that the UK would leave `
without a deal.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by blahblah » 15 Aug 2019, 23:35

Billy Whiz wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 23:33
forestfan wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 17:55
There’s a lot of Meatloaf Remainerism around, i.e. “I’d do anything to stop no-deal, but I won’t do that...” If it comes down to it, maybe people will compromise, though I suspect they will all leave it too late, in which case pretty much all 650 MPs will be culpable.
The real culpability lies with the nearly 500 MPs who voted for Article 50 without reading it - or at least, without reading the bit that said that in the absence of a ratified WA, the default position was that the UK would leave `
without a deal.
I'd excuse those that voted for it on the basis that our Govt is too inept to deliver it ie not Lab with their faux leave to try and save some seats.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by sorbiegunner » 15 Aug 2019, 23:41

murf wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 23:14
Lots of MPs rejected the deal (mostly remoaners I would suggest).
Mostly everybody in actual fact.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 16 Aug 2019, 07:46

sorbiegunner wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 23:41
murf wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 23:14
Lots of MPs rejected the deal (mostly remoaners I would suggest).
Mostly everybody in actual fact.
A lot of opposition MPs wouldn’t consider it because of the political damage it would do to vote through a “Tory” deal, even if most of them were prepared to deliver Brexit in line with the referendum result. Theresa May was quite right with her weekly “if you don’t want no deal, vote for my deal” PMQs response. The fact that forcing her out would put a hard Brexit kamikaze squad in charge of the country was a “no shit Sherlock” as well - even though it was May herself who empowered that wing of the Tory party with her “red lines” approach.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by bluenosey » 16 Aug 2019, 09:13

blahblah wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 21:40
bluenosey wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 21:34
Or just honour the result of the referendum

If we do have a Labour PM let's make it John Mann
No Deal was never part of it?
Remain or leave were the options

None of this soft/hard/medium soft etc marlarkey, but yes, a deal would be good.

Of course we had one, which wasn't great in my eyes but at least it was some sort of compromise. However, its was voted down by most of Labour, the Lib Dems, the ERG and the DUP. It was a chance of conciliation but it's gone. So now it's one or t'other. Unless someone blinks.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 16 Aug 2019, 09:22

No, but as pointed out many many many times; it was most definitely implied (and understood) that a deal was necessary.

Hence the talk of Norway and Switzerland prospering and being examples of why Brexit would work for the U.K.

I remember countless arguments about the fact we would still have movement of people and other things if we wanted to continue trading.

So it’s all well and good to try and portray a betrayal, but it’s simply not true. Yes the ballot paper was simple, the solution was never going to be (and nor did anyone say otherwise).

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 16 Aug 2019, 10:05


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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 16 Aug 2019, 12:31

A report from a former NFU chief economist says that half of UK farms will face bankruptcy if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

But I guess that's OK because we'll just import more of our food :D

Oh wait, we won't have any trade deals in place :?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by blahblah » 16 Aug 2019, 12:41

Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 12:31
A report from a former NFU chief economist says that half of UK farms will face bankruptcy if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

But I guess that's OK because we'll just import more of our food :D

Oh wait, we won't have any trade deals in place :?
Chill, we will have Free Trade with the whole world 😎

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 16 Aug 2019, 12:45

Depend on the "economist's" assumptions. A large part of Boris's bus's £350bn/hour* that we give to the EU comes back as subsidies to the farmers. There has been noise that much of this will still be given but directly (rather than by bus to Europe and back). Boris really ought to firm this up to allay (some of the) fears.




(* or whatever it was)


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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 16 Aug 2019, 13:01

Being a sheep, I'll just eat the children.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 16 Aug 2019, 13:10

Not specifically discussed in this article but.... could Trump be thinking of actively joining the EU with a view to eventually taking it over????

You heard it here first.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49367792

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Striker » 16 Aug 2019, 13:17

Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 12:31
A report from a former NFU chief economist says that half of UK farms will face bankruptcy if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

But I guess that's OK because we'll just import more of our food :D

Oh wait, we won't have any trade deals in place :?
If we do finish up in a post Brexit disaster, everyone who voted Leave will bear some responsibility. Ignoring 95% of experts and believing populist serial liars wasn't a smart move.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 16 Aug 2019, 14:09

Experts like the then-Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Bank of England, who forecast economic turmoil following the vote?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by blahblah » 16 Aug 2019, 14:13

Did they say vote or Leave?

If the former then they may have gone along with the fervour of we have left and the Deal will be done in a couple of weeks....

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 16 Aug 2019, 14:20

blahblah wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 14:13
Did they say vote or Leave?

If the former then they may have gone along with the fervour of we have left and the Deal will be done in a couple of weeks....
Cameron's PF cronies were definitely asked to say it was imminent apocalyptical disaster straight after any exit leave vote.

The four horsemen are just a bit slower than we were told......

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by blahblah » 16 Aug 2019, 14:22

murf wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 14:20
blahblah wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 14:13
Did they say vote or Leave?

If the former then they may have gone along with the fervour of we have left and the Deal will be done in a couple of weeks....
Cameron's PF cronies were definitely asked to say it was imminent apocalyptical disaster straight after any exit leave vote.

The four horsemen are just a bit slower than we were told......
I do consider him solely responsible for this debacle.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Surprised » 16 Aug 2019, 14:22

Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 14:09
Experts like the then-Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Bank of England, who forecast economic turmoil following the vote?
you forget the millions pumped into the economy by the BoE in June 2016 to prevent the turmoil.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 16 Aug 2019, 16:36

Really? By a Government famed for its austerity? So what exactly was it pumping it into? (Genuine question)

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by blahblah » 16 Aug 2019, 16:37

Wasn't it supporting the pound? (I'm not sure but I remember cash bring spent....)

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EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Maldini » 16 Aug 2019, 16:53

Pretty sure you could’ve googled it yourself but if this helps. Image

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ec ... antitative

https://youtu.be/KsZJKpbEoNE

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 16 Aug 2019, 17:01

I notice from your link that despite those efforts, the Bank of England was still predicting that "unemployment will rise", whereas of course the opposite happened. My original point was that Striker's faith in experts was misplaced. In fact "economic expert" has become something of an oxymoron since 2016 (if it wasn't always).

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Surprised » 16 Aug 2019, 17:07

Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 16:36
Really? By a Government famed for its austerity? So what exactly was it pumping it into? (Genuine question)
60bn in electronic cash to buy government bonds and up to 435bn in expanding QE

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Surprised » 16 Aug 2019, 17:18

Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 17:01
I notice from your link that despite those efforts, the Bank of England was still predicting that "unemployment will rise", whereas of course the opposite happened. My original point was that Striker's faith in experts was misplaced. In fact "economic expert" has become something of an oxymoron since 2016 (if it wasn't always).
If you needed a heart transplant would you want an expert to do the operation or the postman? Would you trust a schoolkid to rewire you house or a qualified electrician? This fear of experts from quitlings is stunningly stupid. A real head in the sand approach.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 16 Aug 2019, 17:31

As always, you've misconstrued my point. I didn't say I didn't trust any experts, I said that Striker's faith in economic experts was misplaced. How you get from that to me wanting a postman to operate on my heart, only you will know.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by unc.si. » 16 Aug 2019, 17:39

Economists have always been better at explaining why something has happened than what will happen next, but thats to be expected in complex systems. It's much easier to work with factual events than assumptions. Doesn't mean that the whole science of Economics is discredited though.

Have posted this before but I did a paper a long time ago using the Treasury, BCG and (I think) Cambridge groups economic models - simulations of what they believe will happen given under different policy assumptions. Using the same inputs, they all gave (sometimes pretty wildly) differing outcomes. I still do some work in International agricultural markets and it never fails to amaze me how unpredictable markets actually behave in real life.

yes - markets behaved themselves pretty well after the vote, with not too much intervention needed. Again, I've said this before but I was working in the Stock Exchange building the week after the vote (or maybe a couple of weeks after - can't remember exactly) and most people seemed to think that it wouldn't happen, or would at least be a Norway type arrangement, so markets and businesses were pretty much in a wait and see mode at least after the initial shock.

The point at which we leave with no deal is a lot different than the point at which a referendum result is announced though. There will be real impacts on the economy and business, rather than just markets reacting to potential events 2 years in the future, and I don't think that anyone, expert or not, believes that we won't be heading into a period of fairly considerable economic damage. The only question really being how long it will take to drag ourselves back out of it. Optimists maybe think 2 or 3 years, pessimists 10/20 years?? (realists 5 to 10 years?)

does anyone think that a no deal is a good short term outcome? Striker posed the question but not sure he ever got an answer.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Surprised » 16 Aug 2019, 17:41

Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 17:31
As always, you've misconstrued my point. I didn't say I didn't trust any experts, I said that Striker's faith in economic experts was misplaced. How you get from that to me wanting a postman to operate on my heart, only you will know.
You said his faith in experts. Would you rather take economic forecasts from your postman? Whats his prediction for when we leave the EU?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 16 Aug 2019, 17:43

Surprised wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 17:18
Billy Whiz wrote:
16 Aug 2019, 17:01
I notice from your link that despite those efforts, the Bank of England was still predicting that "unemployment will rise", whereas of course the opposite happened. My original point was that Striker's faith in experts was misplaced. In fact "economic expert" has become something of an oxymoron since 2016 (if it wasn't always).
If you needed a heart transplant would you want an expert to do the operation or the postman? Would you trust a schoolkid to rewire you house or a qualified electrician? This fear of experts from quitlings is stunningly stupid. A real head in the sand approach.

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