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EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

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Will the UK leave on Halloween?

Poll runs till 16 Sep 2019, 08:56

Yes with the May deal
1
2%
Yes with a Boris deal
5
9%
Yes with no deal
12
21%
No there will be a further extension
31
55%
No Article 50 will be revoked
7
13%
 
Total votes: 56

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 13 Jun 2019, 18:14

The Boris landslide looks a near-certainty, with increasing debate about the proroguing Parliament option (even if he hasn’t actually been the leading proponent of that idea among the contenders).

While I agree it would be a pretty outrageous way of trampling on democracy, it’s down to a situation created by Parliament. A rogue PM couldn’t, for example, shut down the Commons to start a war that parliament hadn’t approved. We have to accept that Parliament itself has to take a fair degree of blame for backing itself into the particular corner that makes this possible:

1) By triggering Article 50 (by a wide margin) with no idea of what sort of Brexit the government was aiming for or the House could support. This made a no-deal exit two years later the legal default outcome, notwithstanding any extension.

2) By insisting on Parliamentary approval for a deal, again this retained no-deal as the default even after any such deal had been negotiated.

3) By failing to push through measures that would stop a default no-deal, such as an automatic revocation of Article 50 if we were 24 hours from it happening without parliamentary approval.

And that’s before we even come onto rejecting May’s deal itself three times and various proposed alternatives due to inflexibility and party loyalties. They continue collectively to play with fire and there’s no guarantee there will be an extinguisher to hand if they really need it. There’s very few of the 650 who won’t have some amount of blood on their hands if this ends up happening.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 13 Jun 2019, 18:40

Boris nearly guaranteed now. Only needs top 2 and party will pick him. Needs to be some conspiracy where remaining folks split their votes equally across 2 other options to push him to 3rd. Unlikely. Impossible even without some Boris voters defecting (he had over 33%, 114 of 313, so can't get 3rd).

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 13 Jun 2019, 18:45

murf wrote:
13 Jun 2019, 18:40
Boris nearly guaranteed now. Only needs top 2 and party will pick him. Needs to be some conspiracy where remaining folks split their votes equally across 2 other options to push him to 3rd. Unlikely.
He got more than a third of the available votes today, so would actually need a net loss of supporters to not make the top two.

The “anyone but Boris” brigade have gone pretty quiet, somehow he’s sold his snake oil to the Remainers/moderates as well as the Economic Ruin Group. One side, or both, will be disappointed.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 13 Jun 2019, 21:00

He has such a big lead that he can now afford to divert some of his supporters to vote for someone who he knows he can beat in the final round. That is, anyone but Gove, the only one who can match him on the podium. So don't be surprised to see dozens of Boris supporters voting for Jeremy Hunt from now on.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by RomynPG » 13 Jun 2019, 21:40

I hope that Brexit is such a poisoned chalice that it consumes Boris as well.

What a poor choice of candidates this is - for our Prime Minister (not that we have any say in it) - utter bunch of wink. Rory Stewart seems to be the least rotten apple.

... on and on we go.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 13 Jun 2019, 21:53

Was it Ken Clarke earlier calling for some common sense ie this isn’t a reality tv show, it’s the prime minister of the country.

As much as we laugh at how odious Trump is... Boris is equally as embarrassing. Some of his faux pas and buffoonery and straight out offensiveness should see him blackballed from the Tory Party, let alone probably leader of our country. And to think we’re worried about unelected officials 🤣

Boris strikes me as the kid who gets to be CEO of his really wealthy dads company. He gets an office and a title but doesn’t actually know what he’s doing... only this is politics at a national level.

And before anyone claims he’s a really sharp guy underneath that facade; he’s really not. He might have assumed this village idiot persona, but it’s just a double bluff.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 13 Jun 2019, 22:50

Meanwhile Chuka Umunna joins the Lib Dems... third party of the year for him! Will he switch to the Greens by Christmas? :wink:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 13 Jun 2019, 22:59

Johnson is notoriously uninterested in detail - just the person to oversee fresh EU negotiations then :roll: . Not that the EU would even consider re-opening negotiations, considering that they loathe the man.

One hopeful scenario is a no confidence vote in a new Boris govt which might possibly pass if enough Remain Tories defy their party and vote them out of power, leading to a general election. But I can't see how all this could happen before October 31.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 13 Jun 2019, 23:13

Boris think he is loved because a load of daft cockneys voted him in. TWICE.

Why did you do it??????


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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by RomynPG » 14 Jun 2019, 00:42

murf wrote:
13 Jun 2019, 23:13
Boris think he is loved because a load of daft cockneys voted him in. TWICE.

Why did you do it??????
People do apparently vote quite strangely at times but luckily when we learn more of the truth about someone/something we can change our minds and change course.

I love living in a democracy where that sort of thing happens and regardless of where your views lie we at least all agree on that :P

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Tacalabala » 14 Jun 2019, 16:49

You just have to read a short history to understand Boris really is a nasty piece of work



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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by trampie » 14 Jun 2019, 20:22

Johnson if selected could be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom some people are speculating.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 14 Jun 2019, 20:29

trampie wrote:
14 Jun 2019, 20:22
Johnson if selected could be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom some people are speculating.
Only question is will Scotland or NI go first? (It definitely won’t be Wales :wink: )

Still, we’ll probably still be calling it the UK even when London, Yorkshire and Cornwall have b*ggered off.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Jun 2019, 20:45

I love all these ‘some are saying’, ‘I’ve heard’ posts on the union.

Is it just you and your mate Trampie, speculating

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 14 Jun 2019, 21:22

Zimmerman wrote:I love all these ‘some are saying’, ‘I’ve heard’ posts on the union.

Is it just you and your mate Trampie, speculating
"Mate" ? Surely the word is "Comrade"

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 15 Jun 2019, 07:17

No one even knows where Whales is.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by trampie » 15 Jun 2019, 08:19

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Jun 2019, 20:45
I love all these ‘some are saying’, ‘I’ve heard’ posts on the union.

Is it just you and your mate Trampie, speculating
You obviously did not listen to the video on the last twitter feed put up then did you ! :lol:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by MADCHESTER UTD » 16 Jun 2019, 22:19

I love Noel Gallagher and it seems he think we are all a bunch of c*%ts on here😂

“A democratic vote took place and it went one way and the other people don’t like it. There’s only one thing f*%king worse than a fool who voted Brexit. That’s the rise of the c*%ts trying to get the vote overturned. You know, you either take part in a f*%king democratic process but if you don’t like the outcome then go to North Korea. I sat the day of Brexit and thought “I can’t be arsed going to the polling station. Who the f*%k would vote to leave Europe? It’s a nonsensical idea.”

And you wake up the next day and think “f*#king he’ll! Shit!” But the thing taking place after is a disgrace! It’s a disgrace when you see people try to get the vote overturned”

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 16 Jun 2019, 22:33

He usually talks crap but he is spot on there.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 17 Jun 2019, 07:38

When we’re relying on Noel Gallagher and Piers Morgan to back us up, then we are well and truly #%^*+*

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 17 Jun 2019, 07:52

Most people’s reasoning for wanting it overturned is not that they want to ignore democracy, just that it’s proved impossible to find a way to implement it in practice without ruining the economy and probably causing major conflict to return to Northern Ireland, among other issues. Those who want to go ahead with it just to prove a point about democracy (which usually has a 5-year mandate at most) could be damaging the country for 50 years.

I’m starting to think once again that the best option might be to leave without a deal, watch the chaos unfold for a few weeks, say “told you so”, rejoin and be done with it - but know it wouldn’t be that simple in practice...

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Zimmerman » 17 Jun 2019, 08:25

It would get passed off as fake news or ‘the establishment’ manipulating it to fail to get their way.

It’s amazing that it’s turned in to a establishment versus the people (or overthrowing of democracy).

There were 48% of people that didn’t want it in the first place. Yes the vote won... but this isn’t a case of politicians ignoring 90% of the people.

They’re haggling over the best way to leave.
I don’t think any of them want to ignore the decision completely (maybe on a personal level they might... but assuming impartiality, they don’t).

The fact that so many leavers are willing to ignore all the warnings and implications and seemingly ONLY want to proceed because “it’s democracy” is telling.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 17 Jun 2019, 08:35

And by arguing over how to leave, they’re increasing the chances of it never happening. The opportunity was there to leave on schedule, but the hardline Brexit supporters prevented it. As a result, the (reasonably sensible) soft Brexit compromise is pretty much off the table and it’s basically no deal or nothing. So the only alternative position to take is campaigning for a second referendum and remain.

Of course a referendum vote to remain might be followed by a Farage landslide and an instant no-deal Brexit. The cycle could repeat itself for decades, with everything else in our politics incidental.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 17 Jun 2019, 12:26

forestfan wrote:
17 Jun 2019, 07:52
Most people’s reasoning for wanting it overturned is not that they want to ignore democracy, just that it’s proved impossible to find a way to implement it in practice without ruining the economy and probably causing major conflict to return to Northern Ireland, among other issues. Those who want to go ahead with it just to prove a point about democracy (which usually has a 5-year mandate at most) could be damaging the country for 50 years.
Bang on. This is why I voted Leave but I'm now backing a (democratic) 2nd ref and Remain - because it's become clear that any Leave deal we get will be worse than staying in.

As for Noel, he's just pissed off that Liam is producing better records than he is these days. (A follow-up to 2017's excellent As You Were is due in September.)

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 17 Jun 2019, 18:43

Billy Whiz wrote:
17 Jun 2019, 12:26
forestfan wrote:
17 Jun 2019, 07:52
Most people’s reasoning for wanting it overturned is not that they want to ignore democracy, just that it’s proved impossible to find a way to implement it in practice without ruining the economy and probably causing major conflict to return to Northern Ireland, among other issues. Those who want to go ahead with it just to prove a point about democracy (which usually has a 5-year mandate at most) could be damaging the country for 50 years.
Bang on. This is why I voted Leave but I'm now backing a (democratic) 2nd ref and Remain - because it's become clear that any Leave deal we get will be worse than staying in.

As for Noel, he's just pissed off that Liam is producing better records than he is these days. (A follow-up to 2017's excellent As You Were is due in September.)
They’re both putting out better stuff than the later years of Oasis (much as I’d love a reunion to happen, from a live performance point of view...)

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by forestfan » 17 Jun 2019, 20:49

Anyway, next round of voting tomorrow. Has Jeremy Rhyming Slang’s Trump/Hopkins gaffe cost him? Will Boris supporters vote tactically against Gove? Will it be Raab, Javid or Stewart heading for the exit door (or more than one of them)?

I think it’s the BBC debate tomorrow as well, which the frontrunner has pledged not to dodge, and we know he’s always true to his word :wink:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by murf » 17 Jun 2019, 21:56


forestfan wrote:I think it’s the BBC debate tomorrow
Please, please, pretty please:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-48663289

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by Billy Whiz » 18 Jun 2019, 00:03

I think Raab and Javid will be kicked out today, with Stewart as the novelty candidate next to go, leaving a 3-way fight between Johnson, Gove and Hunt, the latter propped up by pro-Boris tactical voters.
Johnson to be PM

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

Post by jimmy ching » 18 Jun 2019, 08:57

Billy Whiz wrote:
18 Jun 2019, 00:03
I think Raab and Javid will be kicked out today, with Stewart as the novelty candidate next to go, leaving a 3-way fight between Johnson, Gove and Hunt, the latter propped up by pro-Boris tactical voters.
Johnson to be PM
Could bring back the memories of when the papers were saying 'Who the hell is John Major?'

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