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Paw's for thought

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From4corners
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by From4corners »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 00:12 I didn’t know that he had received stitches in his foot until Top Marx messaged us all about it.
A community within a community huh... Or did I miss something on the open forum about this news?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Ruth_NZ »

From4corners wrote:
Smurphy Paw wrote: I didn’t know that he had received stitches in his foot until Top Marx messaged us all about it.
A community within a community huh... Or did I miss something on the open forum about this news?
It was general knowledge I think. Plenty of press articles mentioning it.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by From4corners »

Okay, I'm reading it now as well. Cheers. 👍 Didn't know that happened last month. This makes me want to captain him less now.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

From4corners wrote: 07 May 2022, 07:35
Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 00:12 I didn’t know that he had received stitches in his foot until Top Marx messaged us all about it.
A community within a community huh... Or did I miss something on the open forum about this news?
A secret Compadres 5AS community where we plot the downfall of Stray Cats and other groups of five*

*Perhaps. In this case by explaining something after the fact. And, yes, as Ruth says probably common knowledge but I am time poor for FPL so often miss snippets like this

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by blahblah »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 00:12 But it’s an uncomfortable bed and I don’t like it.
That's because I've got all the pillows and the duvet 😎

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

blahblah wrote: 07 May 2022, 11:03
Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 00:12 But it’s an uncomfortable bed and I don’t like it.
That's because I've got all the pillows and the duvet 😎
If I don’t take that as a joke it becomes really weird real quick :lol:

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Re: Paw's for thought

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From4corners wrote:Okay, I'm reading it now as well. Cheers. 👍 Didn't know that happened last month. This makes me want to captain him less now.
Yeah, understandable. It was that which made my decision about who to bring in for Bruno (KDB or Salah) pretty simple this week. KDB was completely rested last weekend and then hooked after 70 minutes midweek in an absolutely crucial game. Pep says it was tactical. I don't believe him. They only needed to control the game for 20 minutes and how could that be easier without KDB?

I do tend to think that Cancelo is a pretty solid captain pick this week. Defenders quite often come out well in late-season DGWs from my recollection and City have 2 good CS chances to add to Cancelo's attacking potential.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by From4corners »

Cancelo is a good shout. I've also read that Maddison is carrying a hip injury so I'm going for Mahrez.
Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 11:01 A secret Compadres 5AS community where we plot the downfall of Stray Cats and other groups of five*

*Perhaps. In this case by explaining something after the fact. And, yes, as Ruth says probably common knowledge but I am time poor for FPL so often miss snippets like this
:D :lol: yes that makes perfect sense! I forgot about that, apologies.

So revenge for that 1-4 loss next season yeah? :wink:

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Our finest hour 🤦‍♂️

The minor De Bruyne doubts mean that I am wary of giving him the armband. I have no idea if it is because of a recent foot injury, I thought De Bruyne was the correct one to be hooked mid-week because he wasn’t playing very well. IMO he failed to exert his usual control over proceedings. Some credit for that has to go to Real of course but the comparison is with his team mates rather than the opposition. If I am wrong about it he’ll be enough of a differential anyway and I’ll get one lot of his points which should still give me a ranking boost.

I am still looking at a triple move. The weak point of the triple outlined above is Matip. It was a compromise move motivated by price. Richarlison and Salah left me exactly £5.2m and Matip was the best at that price. For a modest increase in budget we go up to the likes of Alonso, Laporte and Dias, the latter being who I’d want of the three of them. Alonso will be more explosive. Equally he may miss game time in anticipation of the FACup Final. Laporte is the cheaper Citizen, his hamstring a minor concern.

Budget wise this approach brings Pukki back in to play instead of Richarlison. Pukki was my starting point for a Kane downgrade and is always capable of a goal every couple of games. Leicester and West Ham are good teams, I am relying on hangovers and tiredness from their respective European exits. Plus one of the advantages of Free Hitting next week is that I can still get Richarlison for the more attractive pair of fixtures at home in GW37. Away from home they’re not the same beast.
A base priced forward is the other approach but it leaves me short up front with Broja looking to have lost his place and Nketiah as the only likely starter (with Laca breathing down his neck for a farewell appearance in at least one game week).

Any thoughts before I pull the trigger?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Smurphy Paw wrote:I am time poor for FPL so often miss snippets like this...
Just type KDB newsnow into google and you'll see this:

https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Sport/Footb ... +De+Bruyne

It has all the latest articles about that player from a variety of sources including local papers. Only takes a few minutes to look at a player you are considering moving in or out.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 12:10 For a modest increase in budget we go up to the likes of Alonso, Laporte and Dias

….
Laporte is the cheaper Citizen, his hamstring a minor concern.
Oh, the irony. Laporte with a goal/clean sheet 12 pointer and another game to go; Dias confirmed as out for the season. I picked the wrong dodgy hamstring!

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by fred1266 »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 08 May 2022, 23:06
Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 12:10 For a modest increase in budget we go up to the likes of Alonso, Laporte and Dias

….
Laporte is the cheaper Citizen, his hamstring a minor concern.
Oh, the irony. Laporte with a goal/clean sheet 12 pointer and another game to go; Dias confirmed as out for the season. I picked the wrong dodgy hamstring!
sorry to hear that was watching a pod and dey were suggesting Dias is the better pick since he has been back from injury having 4 shot to Laporte 0 shots

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by wahine »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 08 May 2022, 23:06
Smurphy Paw wrote: 07 May 2022, 12:10 For a modest increase in budget we go up to the likes of Alonso, Laporte and Dias

….
Laporte is the cheaper Citizen, his hamstring a minor concern.
Oh, the irony. Laporte with a goal/clean sheet 12 pointer and another game to go; Dias confirmed as out for the season. I picked the wrong dodgy hamstring!
:( Smurphy Paw, I also tossed a coin and went Dias in my Fan Team squad :oops: and a transfer to get him replaced as there are no emergencies.Dias was still a better choice than Alonso... :(

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

It’s a lot of money to leave on the bench. However I am Free Hitting in GW37. Then in GW38 I will have:
Cancelo (AVL)
White* (EVE)
Trent (WOL)
James (WAT)
That’s a solid looking defence if White’s hamstring has recovered.
It’s not much use in 36 though

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Re: Paw's for thought

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From4corners wrote: 07 May 2022, 08:02 Okay, I'm reading it now as well. Cheers. 👍 Didn't know that happened last month. This makes me want to captain him less now.
I wish I hadn't read this.. I'm just going to ignore this forum now.

Byeeeee :lol:

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

What a shocking trio of transfers. A net value of -11, and I would have captained Kevin.
EB0FAC2C-5C96-46FD-ADC4-9C28A24892FB.jpeg
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by blahblah »

Ouch

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

My genius knows no beginnings :lol:
FE738C82-7B88-4127-8E96-ED17F86639C1.jpeg

And remember that by not doing this I would also have another 30 Kaptain Kevin points as well


…and despite all of this I have a (modest) green arrow :mrgreen:
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Re: Paw's for thought

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Smurphy Paw wrote: 12 May 2022, 21:39 My genius knows no beginnings :lol:

FE738C82-7B88-4127-8E96-ED17F86639C1.jpeg


And remember that by not doing this I would also have another 30 Kaptain Kevin points as well


…and despite all of this I have a (modest) green arrow :mrgreen:
Or end?

I had a red before tonight (89-4), which was a pisser.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

DGW36 Review 121(-8) = 133 Points; GW Rank - 670K; OR - 63K. Green Arrow

It feels like a week where a ‘The Good, The Bad and The Ugly’ approach is most appropriate.
2E157040-A1E3-4308-A4D8-9115E1146A32.jpeg

The Good
Let’s start with the positives:
- After using my Wild Card in GW28 and unwittingly holding the Bench Boost until a couple of weeks ago my squad was in reasonable shape for the Double Game Week. Admittedly it cost a couple of hits each week to get there. But I started the week with a full cohort of 11 Doublers. That compared reasonably well against all of those who used a Chip this week, with around half of engaged players using either the Bench Boost, Triple Captaincy, Free Hit or Wild Card. Logically, then, a week to hold one’s ground rather than make huge strides up the rankings even though everyone* presumes that a DGW will see a boost. I guess that depends on overall ranking, where I am in the Top 100K everyone remains engaged so any gains are hard won.
- De Bruyne with his 34% EO was a positive. Before the Game Week I was concerned that he was injured so his 30 points were very welcome. I also need to come back to him later though.
- Nketiah, Mount, Foster. Strictly speaking none were low owned differentials. But all were different enough to provide a healthy ranking boost (or more accurately, to offset the impact of other high scoring players like Son).

The Bad
- My judgement. Week after week I spend time and effort working out the best moves. Invariably this is backfiring and, far from the first time this year, I would have been better off closing the screen, stepping away and doing nothing. The Salah FOMO was too strong. I shoe horned him in at the cost of 8 points. Collectively the three players I bought in scored only 11 points, and none of them did as well as the other options I considered. This is the real frustration and the judgement point. Richarlison outscored Pukki; Matip and Laporte outscored the now injured Dias. Everyone outscored Salah. The direct impact is on the graphic above. Then there’s the Captain who wasn’t, De Bruyne. Although on that specific point I am getting to the point of realising that this is a case of bad outcome rather than bad decision. Going in to a GW with injury and game time doubts makes a player a risky captaincy pick. Salah had just had his rest and so he seemed like the obvious pick. After the fact, wrong. Before hand, 186% EO would suggest that I wasn’t alone.
I’m not feeling whiny about it. It is my own fault and, through a combination of the points ‘sold’ and Captaincy failure, the swing is so great that I probably will learn from this one. Usually the impact is quite modest and one can find a way to avoid learning (for example, see the ‘Admittedly it cost a couple of hits each week’ comment I made and left in above). But my late season points chasing, based on hit after hit, is not a first and I do need to remember that it can and does backfire.

The Ugly
- My judgement. Yes, that again. Not in relation to last week. I am Free Hitting in DGW37. And this is the one with the trickier fixtures to call. Last week was the one that was supposed to be easy.
Had a few of my interventions repaid my faith last week I’d feel better about proactively picking an Everton, Villa or Leicester player over a SGW premium like Son, Salah (yes, him) or Kane. Had I not hit the Free Hit button already I really would consider holding the Chip until next week :lol: But I’m all in, I’m committed. And I’m feeling a bit clueless :mrgreen: So when I do post a draft later on please do intervene and stop me making schoolboy errors.

Thanks all

SP
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Stevieste »

That’s painful SP, I’m presuming if you had left Salah out you’re team you would have also captained KDB ?

I’m with you on the FH this week so we can maybe butt heads a little

I think Mahrez will shine this week, he surely has to start a game like this and is on pens and everyone else will clamber onto KDB after his monster haul, im actually not bring any Man City in on my FH, I have a close rival in a mini league and need to block him off, so son and Salah are in and I’m going for Kane who had the easier fixture to KDB and can hopefully repeat last night performance 🤞🏻

Good luck in GW37 👍🏻

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Stevieste wrote: 13 May 2022, 18:10 That’s painful SP, I’m presuming if you had left Salah out you’re team you would have also captained KDB ?
I would indeed. Give or take a point my GW36 score would have equalled yours had I done nothing. Taking the armband off a <rumoured to be dealing with a foot injury & had let me down in 35> De Bruyne was not the bad move. Chasing Salah was. And I’m even more disappointed in myself for giving up on Barnes who I knew could return this week. It’s done though and I did gain rank.
So now it’s Free Hit time. What to you think of the following pair of options…

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Free Hit 37
My budget is modest this year, I gave up on increasing value by moving early on transfers to cover myself against last minute Covid, etc. So there are compromises here, including a decision to go light in defence.
Trent has a Cup Final, could get injured and not play. Ditto James. City have no defenders so, whilst I think they’ll win, it’s more likely to come at the cost of a goal in a high scoring game.

Free Hit 37 - 1
446A938E-D359-48B4-B295-DA07F331738A.jpeg

Free Hit 37 - 2
4E49AA69-BC00-48D0-BAC8-2D76D82AC86D.jpeg

The Differences
The main difference between the two options is De Bruyne in 1. Or Mahrez, as per Stevie’s suggestion, in 2.
Downgrade the City mid and it enables an upgrade to defenders and from Mane to Salah (which may or may not be wise anyhow).
So rather than make any comments about Salah, what do people think of the following. Is the risk of Mahrez not playing small enough to enable the upgrades elsewhere? It’d give me a strong 12th man in Anderson if he missed out altogether, plus a few quid left in the bank for minor tweaks.

Or maybe something else entirely?

Thanks,

SP
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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Not sure why Stevie is so convinced Mahrez will start, City have scored 10 in the last 2 games without him!

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Well this is true. The trick, as always, is picking one City mid who will definitely play. That is why De Bruyne is worth a premium. Or so I thought in GW35! But it does lead to compromises elsewhere.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

I'm tempted to downgrade KDB to Sterling and upgrade elsewhere tbh. He's scored in his last 2 games and I think he has a good record vs West Ham.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

I guess the question is, what make you so confident that Sterling will get a third game with Mahrez left on the bench?

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Bobby Fetta »

I like your teams SP. Its disappointing how similar the FH teams are but it is hard to break free - yours does have a few of the more unexpected names. I always had Vardy in mind but those two goals against Norwich have made him a more popular pick. Still not sure I will be captaining him.

My big concern for my team is, having been suffering for weeks at Son's hands, it feels inevitable this will be the week he blanks. Probably coinciding with hauls for Kane and Salah and everyone else from my regular team I'm planning to dump this week. But I'd like to fully commit to the FH. And De Bruyne is still dead to me - that is the hill my season (top 50k) will die on, just like two years ago...

The only moderate differentials I have in mind are Cornet and a Crystal Palace defender. Otherwise I have all the standards like Pickford, Cash, Zaha, Richarlison, Ings

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 13 May 2022, 20:15 I guess the question is, what make you so confident that Sterling will get a third game with Mahrez left on the bench?
Recent form I guess. Started 6 of the last 7 league games too.

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Re: Paw's for thought

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 13 May 2022, 19:32 Free Hit 37
…. decision to go light in defence.
Trent has a Cup Final, could get injured and not play. Ditto James
The penny has just dropped that the FPL deadline is after the Cup Final. I won’t have to pick Liverpool and Chelsea players before they play this afternoon. Shame I’ve already sold them all for the week, although fortunately none had increased in value by more than £0.1m

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