Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

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Stormrider
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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Stormrider »

Gambit wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 20:56
Stormrider wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 20:36 Thought of you when he netted the second😊. And then saw he‘s benched😬

But generally a very nice team you have and there is potential for big scores from the differential positions every week👍

Any idea yet about the AM chip in GW25? We obviously will learn a lot over the next 9 days.

Was thinking about Mateta in today. 3 home games in 4 - an advantage or not, given he scored most of his goals away from home so far this season?
Ha ha :D :D to be fair, as much as it looks like a poor decision now, I was under the assumption Eze was out, and until he came off the bench it was going to plan! He was instrumental in the first goal and I think it was a very likely 0-0 if he had stayed on the bench. Oh well, if you want a strong squad you won't get it right every week.

I've considered maybe I should have benched Kluivert, but he had two great chances and one of them was almost an open net! just one of those things..........

Mateta is a great option I think, the fixtures are still good and he is very much the focal point of the Palace attack, on pens, and 100% nailed. Only 5% owned too. I've got no plans to sell him yet.

As for the AM chip, I'm VERY open minded as to when it will be played, Slot/Moyes have started well this week but I'm still convinced that to unlock its true power you need to hit that table bonus in at least one of the three/four games and more if possible.

My bench looks very strong in GW25 and GW26 so I've not ruled out playing the BB, and depending on cup games I could even FH in GW25 depending on who actually doubles.

As you say, the next week or so will dictate what happens as things will be much clearer, I am happy though that I'm not locked out of chip usage with the AM24; I can play BB, I can play FH, I can play AM, or I can do nothing.

Really dynamic period of FPL now, looking forward to it! :D


Yeah, quite interesting times ahead😄

Think, I won‘t play the FH in 25, but getting rid of the bench boost - not the worst idea indeed👍

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

Stormrider wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 21:02
Gambit wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 20:56
Stormrider wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 20:36 Thought of you when he netted the second😊. And then saw he‘s benched😬

But generally a very nice team you have and there is potential for big scores from the differential positions every week👍

Any idea yet about the AM chip in GW25? We obviously will learn a lot over the next 9 days.

Was thinking about Mateta in today. 3 home games in 4 - an advantage or not, given he scored most of his goals away from home so far this season?
Ha ha :D :D to be fair, as much as it looks like a poor decision now, I was under the assumption Eze was out, and until he came off the bench it was going to plan! He was instrumental in the first goal and I think it was a very likely 0-0 if he had stayed on the bench. Oh well, if you want a strong squad you won't get it right every week.

I've considered maybe I should have benched Kluivert, but he had two great chances and one of them was almost an open net! just one of those things..........

Mateta is a great option I think, the fixtures are still good and he is very much the focal point of the Palace attack, on pens, and 100% nailed. Only 5% owned too. I've got no plans to sell him yet.

As for the AM chip, I'm VERY open minded as to when it will be played, Slot/Moyes have started well this week but I'm still convinced that to unlock its true power you need to hit that table bonus in at least one of the three/four games and more if possible.

My bench looks very strong in GW25 and GW26 so I've not ruled out playing the BB, and depending on cup games I could even FH in GW25 depending on who actually doubles.

As you say, the next week or so will dictate what happens as things will be much clearer, I am happy though that I'm not locked out of chip usage with the AM24; I can play BB, I can play FH, I can play AM, or I can do nothing.

Really dynamic period of FPL now, looking forward to it! :D


Yeah, quite interesting times ahead😄

Think, I won‘t play the FH in 25, but getting rid of the bench boost - not the worst idea indeed👍
yes, If my bench scores show anything it's that you certainly CAN play the BB in a single GW!

Just noticed I'm ten points behind you now :D the biggest factor this week has been Chris Wood I think, AM Slot/Moyes and TC Salah are pretty equal so far, but the teams with the Chris Wood haul are flying.

Times would be even more interesting if the cup games didn't go to plan and Arsenal/Chelsea got a DGW25 :shock: that would really shake things up!

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Stormrider »

[/quote]
Times would be even more interesting if the cup games didn't go to plan and Arsenal/Chelsea got a DGW25 :shock: that would really shake things up!
[/quote]


That would cause even more chaos then Spurs getting the DGW25 I assume😄

But then, I had that as nearly 100% not happening still 2 days ago, but in the meantime not that convinced any more about Newcastle and Arsenal must be full of confidence now. Still small chance, but if Arsenal could score an early goal, things could suddenly look differently🤔

Both semi finals don’t look that highly predictable any more as they did.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

And all it takes is Arsenal to beat Newcastle!

It's why I mentioned FH, if Liverpool/Arsenal/Chelsea/Villa all double I wouldn't have enough transfers to get all the players I wanted, so FH would get me a killer team and those on AM24 wouldn't be able to match it without taking lots of hits.

Probably won't happen, but you never know..........

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Stormrider »

I see, good point with the FH. Or AM on Arteta with a switch to Chelsea in GW37.

What I like about FH in GW25 is that we would not need to bring in players which blank in GW25 - that’s your point, right?

If we could go towards GW29, really preparing to dead-end then, and not using precious transfers to bring in GW25 doublers, which we would need to sell again if dead-ending in GW29 or 30 - a much stronger GW29 team was possible, which has been my strong urge so far to use the FH in GW29🤔. Then WC in 30 or 31, BB in 33, scrape through 34 and play the AM in 36 to 38.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

Stormrider wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 22:03 I see, good point with the FH. Or AM on Arteta with a switch to Chelsea in GW37.

What I like about FH in GW25 is that we would not need to bring in players which blank in GW25 - that’s your point, right?

If we could go towards GW29, really preparing to dead-end then, and not using precious transfers to bring in GW25 doublers, which we would need to sell again if dead-ending in GW29 or 30 - a much stronger GW29 team was possible, which has been my strong urge so far to use the FH in GW29🤔. Then WC in 30 or 31, BB in 33, scrape through 34 and play the AM in 36 to 38.
Yes.

If the DGW teams are Arsenal/Chelsea/Liverpool/Villa then their fixtures would be:

Arsenal v lei & CHE
Chelsea v bha & ars
Liverpool v WOL & avl
Villa v IPS & avl

Arsenal and Villa have an absolutely golden fixture vs Leicester/Ipswich, I'd 100% want Havertz and Watkins and another Arsenal too (already have Gabriel) and if TAA injured I could replace him too with another Liverpool player. Also Villa defender/keeper Chelsea too as Brighton look shambolic at the moment.

Basically build a super team with the knowledge that those on AM24 couldn't possibly match (some maybe could if they have 4/5 FT's but most don't).

I'd take a FH super team to easily beat AM, and then AM chip would be used later in season to take advantage of table bonus.

I was always looking at dead-ending into BGW29 and then WC in GW30/31 so I was struggling where to use the FH, maybe DGW25 will be a perfect place if the cup games throw a curve ball or two? Let's see what happens in the cup but it's worth thinking about.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Interesting discussion and food for thought. I may swing by to join in the chat after the Cup semis, if that’s OK?

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 22:30 Interesting discussion and food for thought. I may swing by to join in the chat after the Cup semis, if that’s OK?
the more the merrier :D

And the more I think about it the more I want those teams to double.

Those on AM Moyes already have to use a FT to move him out, and not many managers are sat on lots Arsenal/Chelsea/Villa players, throw in a TAA injury (even just to miss the Wolves game) and I can see huge upside in a FH team filled with the best DGW players while AM24 managers have to take hits or just not have many double GW players.......

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Interesting to see someone thinking outside the box. If you do use FH & WC by GW31, aren't you worried about BGW34, especially if all the fixtures go into DGW33 which seems a possibility?

I'm not sure any of the potential doubles in GW25 are that exciting as they all contain 1 tricky fixture.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Stormrider »

Gambit wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 22:36
Smurphy Paw wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 22:30 Interesting discussion and food for thought. I may swing by to join in the chat after the Cup semis, if that’s OK?
the more the merrier :D

Yes, let’s reconvene on Friday😄

Have a good week everyone🙏

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by zipnolan »

Very happy to see this thread, and thinking about this week that is aligned with mine on the AM/TC dilemma and beyond. I thought I was going mad when I saw so many content providers going gung-ho for the AM, to the extent of recommending selling a Liverpool player and taking a hit to get Slot. Andy LTFPL: "I can't see many reasons why 99% of FPL managers shouldn't be activating Assistant Manager this week" - well, ok, he had already used his TC.

I also see an absurd number of people already claiming victory for their chosen strategy despite the second double game's not having been played yet. But the thing that is driving me potty is people comparing whether going AM or TC is better by just seeing how many points each chip has earned. The only valid comparison is like-for-like, which boils down to (for TC) will Salah score more than 17 (Haaland GW6) points this week, or (for TA) will I get more points than I would have done picking a different manager / week, which won't be known for a while. I also don't think the ramifications have been thought through. Anyone who took a -4 to switch Gakpo (say) for Slot and Wissa (the common choice) instead, will currently be gaining 3 points on the transaction (Slot 10 + Wissa 2 - Gakpo 5- hit 4) with (Slot-Gakpo) in game 2 to come.

Anyway, I just had to get that off my chest. Your approach seems the most level-headed to me, and it has restored faith in my own sanity.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Well said, the success of the chip depends on a lot more than how many points TC and AM got in the first half of a single GW. Plus, there are obviously knock-on effects of the choices you made. My original plan for this week was to TC and bring Gakpo in for Wood. In the end, I went with the AM. No idea if that was the correct decision. I will probably have more of an idea once I've used my TC, but even then it's hard to figure out all the consequences of that decision. I decided to go without Everton players - possibly a mistake, but if I'd bought N'daye in, I would have wanted him out quickly so two transfer there in a period when transfers are needed. I do get the Pickford transfer, especially given he has a game in GW29 - but that becomes pointless if I FH. My GK got 6 points as it was so not a big loss unless he returns against Liverpool.

Looking forward to picking up the discussion later in the week. Still trying to work out who I want to progress though!

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

zipnolan wrote: 03 Feb 2025, 13:11 Very happy to see this thread, and thinking about this week that is aligned with mine on the AM/TC dilemma and beyond. I thought I was going mad when I saw so many content providers going gung-ho for the AM, to the extent of recommending selling a Liverpool player and taking a hit to get Slot. Andy LTFPL: "I can't see many reasons why 99% of FPL managers shouldn't be activating Assistant Manager this week" - well, ok, he had already used his TC.

I also see an absurd number of people already claiming victory for their chosen strategy despite the second double game's not having been played yet. But the thing that is driving me potty is people comparing whether going AM or TC is better by just seeing how many points each chip has earned. The only valid comparison is like-for-like, which boils down to (for TC) will Salah score more than 17 (Haaland GW6) points this week, or (for TA) will I get more points than I would have done picking a different manager / week, which won't be known for a while. I also don't think the ramifications have been thought through. Anyone who took a -4 to switch Gakpo (say) for Slot and Wissa (the common choice) instead, will currently be gaining 3 points on the transaction (Slot 10 + Wissa 2 - Gakpo 5- hit 4) with (Slot-Gakpo) in game 2 to come.

Anyway, I just had to get that off my chest. Your approach seems the most level-headed to me, and it has restored faith in my own sanity.
Indeed, the reaction and hysteria from the content creators was ridiculous. Although the fact that so many now make a living from FPL, or at least use it as a second job, I can't help but think that some of the panic was manufactured and exaggerated to help drive numbers up.

Saying that though, some of the moves I've seen are crazy! maybe they really did lose their heads?

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by From4corners »

Gambit wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 22:36
Smurphy Paw wrote: 02 Feb 2025, 22:30 Interesting discussion and food for thought. I may swing by to join in the chat after the Cup semis, if that’s OK?
the more the merrier :D

And the more I think about it the more I want those teams to double.

Those on AM Moyes already have to use a FT to move him out, and not many managers are sat on lots Arsenal/Chelsea/Villa players, throw in a TAA injury (even just to miss the Wolves game) and I can see huge upside in a FH team filled with the best DGW players while AM24 managers have to take hits or just not have many double GW players.......
Very interesting! I'll be following this thread with even more interest than I already did.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by maxi123 »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Feb 2025, 19:02 Well said, the success of the chip depends on a lot more than how many points TC and AM got in the first half of a single GW. Plus, there are obviously knock-on effects of the choices you made. My original plan for this week was to TC and bring Gakpo in for Wood. In the end, I went with the AM. No idea if that was the correct decision. I will probably have more of an idea once I've used my TC, but even then it's hard to figure out all the consequences of that decision. I decided to go without Everton players - possibly a mistake, but if I'd bought N'daye in, I would have wanted him out quickly so two transfer there in a period when transfers are needed. I do get the Pickford transfer, especially given he has a game in GW29 - but that becomes pointless if I FH. My GK got 6 points as it was so not a big loss unless he returns against Liverpool.

Looking forward to picking up the discussion later in the week. Still trying to work out who I want to progress though!
I haven't used the AM yet. what do you think AR? Probably Arteta with excellent wins?
How do you think?
Kind regards, Maxi! :)

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

maxi123 wrote: 03 Feb 2025, 21:37
I haven't used the AM yet. what do you think AR? Probably Arteta with excellent wins?
How do you think?
Kind regards, Maxi! :)
I think we need to wait until after the CC semi-finals to see what's what. FAC4 will also give us more info about possible DGWs later in the season. If Arsenal double in GW25 it's certainly a good option.

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Feb 2025, 21:41 If Arsenal double in GW25 it's certainly a good option.
…however…

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Smurphy Paw wrote: 05 Feb 2025, 22:34
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 03 Feb 2025, 21:41 If Arsenal double in GW25 it's certainly a good option.
…however…
Indeed ...

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

So, the results went as expected and it's just Liverpool and Villa who double.

This means my idea of using the FH is a non starter, not sure what I'll do yet but no rush as still lots of cup games to get through and the Everton v Liverpool fixture next week.

My early thoughts are NOT to play the AM chip on Emery, it's not that I think he's a bad option, just that I still think the later season DGW(s) will offer more chance of table bonus plus also more choice; DGW24 was either Moyes/Slot & DGW25 is either Emery/Slot, and Slot very difficult if you already own three Liverpool. Hopefully later in the season there will be a wider variety of choice and on the beach may be kicking in, and teams who are progressing in Europe changing priorities etc.

In terms of my actual moves, there isn't really too much I want to do.

I already own three Liverpoool (TAA/Salah/Gakpo) so unless there is an injury they will stay in place, and I already own Rogers from Villa.

One move I am thinking of is:

Sels to Martinez

Sels has been superb for me and is the highest scoring keeper in the game, but the coming games are so tough I'm not sure how many clean sheets they will keep, and looking at my planner, I have Flekken selected most weeks so losing Sels shouldn't hurt too much.

The other move is the one being bandied about social media:

Isak to Watkins

I'm not at all sure about this, Isak is on fire and he could easily haul v the City defence, plus a loss of around 0.5 when I want him back. Also, Watkins injured and Villa now have two new attacking players which could enable Watkins to have a rest/reduced minutes.

Rashford (if fit) appeals but my midfield is stacked already and I don't really want to sell any of them.

That's where I am at the moment............

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by maxi123 »

Gambit wrote: 07 Feb 2025, 18:31 So, the results went as expected and it's just Liverpool and Villa who double.

This means my idea of using the FH is a non starter, not sure what I'll do yet but no rush as still lots of cup games to get through and the Everton v Liverpool fixture next week.

My early thoughts are NOT to play the AM chip on Emery, it's not that I think he's a bad option, just that I still think the later season DGW(s) will offer more chance of table bonus plus also more choice; DGW24 was either Moyes/Slot & DGW25 is either Emery/Slot, and Slot very difficult if you already own three Liverpool. Hopefully later in the season there will be a wider variety of choice and on the beach may be kicking in, and teams who are progressing in Europe changing priorities etc.

In terms of my actual moves, there isn't really too much I want to do.

I already own three Liverpoool (TAA/Salah/Gakpo) so unless there is an injury they will stay in place, and I already own Rogers from Villa.

One move I am thinking of is:

Sels to Martinez

Sels has been superb for me and is the highest scoring keeper in the game, but the coming games are so tough I'm not sure how many clean sheets they will keep, and looking at my planner, I have Flekken selected most weeks so losing Sels shouldn't hurt too much.

The other move is the one being bandied about social media:

Isak to Watkins

I'm not at all sure about this, Isak is on fire and he could easily haul v the City defence, plus a loss of around 0.5 when I want him back. Also, Watkins injured and Villa now have two new attacking players which could enable Watkins to have a rest/reduced minutes.

Rashford (if fit) appeals but my midfield is stacked already and I don't really want to sell any of them.

That's where I am at the moment............
Helllo gambit, so you think Rashford will score for Villa? :)

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Stormrider »

Gambit wrote: 07 Feb 2025, 18:31 So, the results went as expected and it's just Liverpool and Villa who double.

This means my idea of using the FH is a non starter, not sure what I'll do yet but no rush as still lots of cup games to get through and the Everton v Liverpool fixture next week.

My early thoughts are NOT to play the AM chip on Emery, it's not that I think he's a bad option, just that I still think the later season DGW(s) will offer more chance of table bonus plus also more choice; DGW24 was either Moyes/Slot & DGW25 is either Emery/Slot, and Slot very difficult if you already own three Liverpool. Hopefully later in the season there will be a wider variety of choice and on the beach may be kicking in, and teams who are progressing in Europe changing priorities etc.

In terms of my actual moves, there isn't really too much I want to do.

I already own three Liverpoool (TAA/Salah/Gakpo) so unless there is an injury they will stay in place, and I already own Rogers from Villa.

One move I am thinking of is:

Sels to Martinez

Sels has been superb for me and is the highest scoring keeper in the game, but the coming games are so tough I'm not sure how many clean sheets they will keep, and looking at my planner, I have Flekken selected most weeks so losing Sels shouldn't hurt too much.

The other move is the one being bandied about social media:

Isak to Watkins

I'm not at all sure about this, Isak is on fire and he could easily haul v the City defence, plus a loss of around 0.5 when I want him back. Also, Watkins injured and Villa now have two new attacking players which could enable Watkins to have a rest/reduced minutes.

Rashford (if fit) appeals but my midfield is stacked already and I don't really want to sell any of them.

That's where I am at the moment............



Seems, we are on the same path once again😄although I am still a bit high on FH29 instead of 34.

From the two possible transfer options
- I definitely wouldn‘t do the Sels to Martinez move. Villa not getting clean sheets, Martinez not that many saves. That‘s a 2 pointer in most games
- Isak to Watkins- yeah, maybe. But as you say, you lose 0.5 mio.


What‘s your rationale for FH34 instead of 29 btw?

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Re: Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

Post by Gambit »

Seems, we are on the same path once again😄although I am still a bit high on FH29 instead of 34.

From the two possible transfer options
- I definitely wouldn‘t do the Sels to Martinez move. Villa not getting clean sheets, Martinez not that many saves. That‘s a 2 pointer in most games
- Isak to Watkins- yeah, maybe. But as you say, you lose 0.5 mio.


What‘s your rationale for FH34 instead of 29 btw?
My thinking on the keeper change is that in DGW25 I don't really fancy either of my keepers to keep a clean sheet:

Flekken away v West Ham
Sels away to Fulham

Martinez has Ipswich home then Liverpool home, so good clean sheet chance v Ipswich, then good chance of save points v Liverpool, pretty sure he beats my two current keepers. And in the following GW's I'm not really planning to play Sels as Flekken has some really nice fixtures.

Watkins will play four games in ten days, so could be a risk, and Isak currently best striker in Europe, really not sure I want to lose him, this will be a very late call.

I haven't decided yet on when to play FH, but I don't think I'll need to use it in BGW29 as things stand.

Currently have seven players who play in BGW29 so with FT's I'll easily be able to get a decent team out, can't justify FH if I have a full team.

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