Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

[Gambit]

GW 9 review:

58 points, an above average score but still a red arrow, my first in six weeks! and ironic that in the week a make four FT's I move down not up!

Going into the Sunday games I was sitting pretty with a 100K rank increase and on the verge of breaking into the top 100K, after the Sunday games I'd lost 100k in rank.....

Palmer and RAN were straight into the points for me, and Mbeumo with a great haul, Haaland scored but missed some great chances and I expected more from a home game v Southampton.

My two Villa players both blanked, Son missed out through injury, and I benched the wrong keeper. As I expected, Forest didn't keep a clean sheet, but I didn't expect Sels to get an assist! This reminded me why I never like rotating keepers, the points often come when you least expect them.

Oh well, the score wasn't actually too bad, and looking around FISO and across social media I matched or beat lots of the engaged managers.

The rankings are still super tight and overall I'm happy with my position.

GW10 early preview and forward planning:

Despite being happy with my position and my squad, I'm in a strange situation now where for the first time this season I'm really unsure which direction to take.

The way I see it, I have four main options:

A - Providing Son is passed fit I can do doing, there is nothing wrong with my squad, I have four big hitters in Haaland/Palmer/Son/Watkins, and it just so happened that this was a GW where Son/Watkins blanked and Salah/Saka scored, it will be the other way round in different GW's.

Gabriel being injured is not an urgent concern as I wasn't planning to play him until GW12, so I could kick that can down the road until GW12.

McNeil will be ok I think, so that only leaves Greaves and he can rot as 3rd sub.

So doing nothing if Son fit is perfectly fine I think.

B - If Son is injured move him to Saka with my one FT. Fairly straightforward, I have enough banked to move Son to Saka.

So A and B are perfectly reasonable options, and perhaps I should just look no further........

BUT:

Are the semi-premium players worth it V's Salah and a mid price striker?

C - Sell Son (regardless of fitness) AND Watkins, to fund Salah and mid price striker.

This would move me to a threemium squad of Haaland/Salah/Palmer, the three most expensive players in the game. The plan would be to leave all three as set and forgets and then just move the mid priced players for fixture runs.

I do like this option, but I also like Son and Watkins, but then having the option of Haaland/Salah/Palmer as C each week is very strong.

D - Lose Haaland! This option involves KEEPING Son & Watkins, and instead selling Haaland and likely McNeil to bring in Salah and any striker I want.

So my heavy hitters would be Palmer/Salah/Son/Watkins....Son could be Saka at any point.

I need to think about what to do, my gut is telling me that option C, Salah/Palmer/Haaland, is the way to go, they are the three most dangerous players and the ones most likely to get the double digit hauls. As long as the mid priced players are timed for good fixture runs - such as the run Wolves have coming, then I think that overall you can still have a strong team, and you are probably guaranteed to have the best C each week.

[hayesag]

wait for the city game in midweek then make a move (or not, option A)

[Fuzzy]

We’re all entitled to change our minds, but if Son is fit, a hit to do C feels a bit odd, especially when he’s home to Ipswich in GW11.

Out of interest, prior to this week, what was your thinking re- Watkins and holding him through the upcoming fixtures?

(Personally, if fit I am holding onto Son, but I am a bit poorer for options than you)

[Frank Zito]

B1: Whether Son is injured or not move him to Saka with my one FT.

[hayesag]

Out of interest, prior to this week, what was your thinking re- Watkins and holding him through the upcoming fixtures?

other than the away game to pool (11) and home to city (17) i see no tricky fixtures for watkins before xmas. and even in those games he could deliver. hes a hold for me. im expecting him to be up there fighting haaland for the top strikers spot

[Gambit]

We’re all entitled to change our minds, but if Son is fit, a hit to do C feels a bit odd, especially when he’s home to Ipswich in GW11.

Out of interest, prior to this week, what was your thinking re- Watkins and holding him through the upcoming fixtures?

(Personally, if fit I am holding onto Son, but I am a bit poorer for options than you)

Yes, If Son confirmed fit then it makes it a more difficult choice, especially with the GW11 fixture. I'm worried Son will be managed, saw these comments from Ange:

It’s not really a hamstring injury, but he was out for a while and wasn’t feeling right after the last game, so we’re just being conservative with him. All things being well, he should be all right for next week.” – Ange Postecoglou

He seems to be progressing well so, hopefully, he’ll be available for one of the games.” – Ange Postecoglou

Not a hamstring injury, but feeling something? Should get more news tomorrow, but worried I'll be nervously checking team sheets if I keep him, would be a killer if he missed that GW11 fixture.

Watkins is a great pick, I standby my previous comments that he can be seen as a legitimate long term hold, and is the most reliable striker after Haaland. BUT, it's not about Watkins it's more a case of me thinking that two premiums isn't enough and for a three premium team I need to raise the money from somewhere.

If I decide to move to a x 3 premium structure then losing Watkins and Son is the easiest way to do it, Salah becomes the long term hold and I switch the mid priced striker for fixture runs. The mid priced strikers are clearly not at the level of Watkins over a season - but can they match or beat him over a strong run of fixtures? I'd also add that as I've mentioned previously I do have a concern for Villa as the European fixtures keep rolling in, Emery mentioned at the weekend that Rogers was very tired for example, they don't have a particularly big squad.

[hayesag]

I've mentioned previously I do have a concern for Villa as the European fixtures keep rolling in, Emery mentioned at the weekend that Rogers was very tired for example, they don't have a particularly big squad.

thats a good point raised and it kind of did happen against bournemouth. the hope is that they win their next 2 CL games and this will qualify them for the next round. we should then see more squad rotation for the remaining CL fixtures

[SirMattBugsby]

I'm in a similar dilemma regarding who to sell first. Having both Watkins and Haaland seems like overpaying for the surety of returns. The performance of cheaper forwards and midfield premiums seems to be driving home that point.

I agree that Watkins is a long-term hold but some things have changed from last season when it comes to him and Villa. Villa are playing more measured than last season and looking to see out games 1-0, 2-0. Also, if they're in a winning position come 65-70 minutes, Watkins is likely to be subbed off.

I was hoping that Watkins would, at 9.0, give the 10.0 mids a run for their money. But it looks like he's closer to the 7.5-8 forwards like Jackson, Havertz..

Who would you sell first out of Haaland and Watkins? The answer to that depends on the money you require but also on whether Haaland is worth 2.5 more than Salah vs Watkins being worth 2.5 more than the 6.5 forwards..

[Gambit]

I'm in a similar dilemma regarding who to sell first. Having both Watkins and Haaland seems like overpaying for the surety of returns. The performance of cheaper forwards and midfield premiums seems to be driving home that point.

I agree that Watkins is a long-term hold but some things have changed from last season when it comes to him and Villa. Villa are playing more measured than last season and looking to see out games 1-0, 2-0. Also, if they're in a winning position come 65-70 minutes, Watkins is likely to be subbed off.

I was hoping that Watkins would, at 9.0, give the 10.0 mids a run for their money. But it looks like he's closer to the 7.5-8 forwards like Jackson, Havertz..

Who would you sell first out of Haaland and Watkins? The answer to that depends on the money you require but also on whether Haaland is worth 2.5 more than Salah vs Watkins being worth 2.5 more than the 6.5 forwards..

Yes, I agree, the performance of the premiums in tandem with the high performing cheaper forwards looks very very strong.

Maybe it won't continue, and things can change quickly, but we've had almost 25% of the season now and I think there are enough weaker teams that you can time your transfers to move between the cheaper strikers and just keep the premiums in place to catch the hauls and get the best C each week.

As for Haaland v Watkins, at the moment favouring losing Watkins first but not 100% sure what I will do yet.

The big problem with selling Haaland for me is the captaincy, it's so important in FPL and when you don't have a player who is the biggest C choice and he hauls it's an absolute killer. Having Haaland and not putting the C on him isn't too bad, as at least you get 50% of the points, but when you don't have him at all it hurts.

BUT, to balance this, looking at the fixtures, if I did sell Haaland, and kept Watkins and Son, then this would be how I would go against Haaland with the C:

GW10 - Salah H v Brighton / Haaland a v Bournemouth
GW11 - Son H v Ipswich / Haaland a v Brighton
GW12 - Salah a v Southampton / Haaland H v Spurs
GW13 - Palmer H v Villa / Haaland a v Liverpool
GW14 -Palmer a v Southampton / Haaland H v Forest
GW15 - Watkins H v Southampton / Haaland a v Palace
GW16 - Son a v Southampton (Salah H v Fulham) (Palmer H v Brentford) / Haaland a v United
GW17 - Palmer a v Everton / Haaland a v Villa
GW18 - Salah H v Leicester / Haaland H v Everton

When I look at the above it maybe points to selling Haaland as I believe I can get a better C all the way to Boxing Day! And I would have SIX from nine GW's with my C against one of the promoted teams, that's really strong. A key issue though is it's only GW11/15/16 where I captain one of Son/Watkins.

[Gambit]

GW10 early preview and forward planning update:


Two bits of news today which have got me seriously thinking of selling Haaland for the first time this season:

1: Pep saying City are pretty much only a couple of injuries away from asking people in the stands if they want a game!
With the injuries they have, and the tight turnaround of games, it doesn't look like City will be at their free scoring best.

2: The news today that McNeil hasn't yet trained all week and is doubtful for the weekend. SD said he has a chance, and I think they'll patch him up and play him, but still a risk.

So these two factors bring option D (from my choices I listed in a previous post) into play.

I can keep Watkins & Son, and instead sell Haaland and McNeil.

In both cases I would bring in Salah and Raul, so it basically boils down to:

Watkins
Son
plus 2.7M! in the bank

V's

Haaland
McNeil
plus 0.7M in the bank

Looking at my above C matrix, I don't really want to captain Haaland before Christmas, but I also need to consider my comment that if I don't have Haaland and he hauls it will sting as he will always be one of the most popular captains.

Obviously I need to wait for the Spurs presser tomorrow for news on Son, but I'm really tempted now to lose Haaland.

The 2.7m in the bank would be really useful as if United look good against Chelsea then they have some killer fixtures coming up where I'd be interested in Bruno or Garnacho, would also give lots of flexibility in the coming weeks.

Genuinely unsure which way to go.........

[SirMattBugsby]

When you put it like that- captaincy, Man City injuries, McNeil doubt, money ITB, Man United- there's only one way to go! Just have to man up and do it

It's important, though, to remember the good points about Haaland before making the decision:

1) He's still Man City's xG hogger (unlike Salah),
2) He can be captained any given GW,
3) KdB will likely play those tricky fixtures from 12-17.

[Gambit]

Just as I was edging ever closer to losing Haaland......... I've now seen the Spurs presser!

So Son still not confirmed to be fit, he "should be ok", but he has to get through training tomorrow!

Nightmare, I can't sell Haaland when I have a 10m asset who could be on the bench again, or get reduced minutes etc.

FFS, I may just go back to my gut choice (option C) and lose Son and Watkins, which means keeping Haaland.

Not doing anything until as late as possible tomorrow in case any info leaks.

[Gambit]

Here is the quote from Ange:

Sonny has trained today, so if he gets through training tomorrow he should be okay"

Can I keep him? what happens if he feels his hamstring again during training tomorrow, or he could play and then come off, and we have the same situation leading up to the golden Ipswich fixture.

Nothing worse than ambiguity when players are injured, really need a "yes he is fit" or "no he is out".

[SirMattBugsby]

The way I see it: if you sold him and he starts and is then fit for Ipswich, you'll be kicking yourself. Maybe you see it differently..

[Gambit]

The way I see it: if you sold him and he starts and is then fit for Ipswich, you'll be kicking yourself. Maybe you see it differently..

I agree, but if I keep him and he's benched/not in squad, or comes off early holding his leg, I'll also be kicking myself.

Damned if I do and damned if I don't..........

[SirMattBugsby]

If you had more bench cover, rolling would've been the better option. In the present scenario, Watkins and Son to Salah can be considered more, depending on how much you prefer Salah to Saka/Son longer term. You'll have a Haaland + Salah team going into the festive period as well..

[Gambit]

If you had more bench cover, rolling would've been the better option. In the present scenario, Watkins and Son to Salah can be considered more, depending on how much you prefer Salah to Saka/Son longer term. You'll have a Haaland + Salah team going into the festive period as well..

Salah will be coming in either way, it’s more sell Haaland and McNeil or Son and Watkins?

[SirMattBugsby]

Selling Son and Watkins might be marginally better for this GW (and that too if Son doesn't play). Longer term, I think the price points of Son and Watkins could be useful to you..

[Gambit]

With no news on Son, I don't want to risk him missing out again or getting reduced minutes, so with the deadline approaching it will be Son/Watkins out for Salah/Raul. I have seen the Son video from training this morning, but it's how he feels during/after training that will matter, and I won't have that info in the next five minutes.

Team will be:

Sels
Ait-Nouri / Lewis / Mykolenko
Salah (C) / Mbeumo / Palmer / McNeil
Haaland (vc) / Raul / Strand-Larsen

Flekken / Rogers / Gabriel / Greaves

Two benching dilemmas -

Gabriel v Mykolenko, think Newcastle can score so going with Mykolenko but it's very close.

McNeil v Rogers, again it's close, Villa can score at Spurs, but so far this season it's been clear to target the promoted teams so McNeil gets the nod. Could still end up with Rogers as McNeil an injury doubt.

I'm fully aware Son/Watkins could hurt me, and I do think there will be goals in that game, but i want Salah and the injury doubts about Son have pushed me this way. I'm also missing Son v Ipswich but Salah is home v Villa and there is still a chance this hamstring issue of Son could flare up again after the game today.

Good luck all!

[Aldershot Rejects]

Tough choices Gambit. Good luck.

[Gambit]

Tough choices Gambit. Good luck.

Cheers AR.

We are on identical points going into this GW so I'm very curious how my Haaland team fares against your non Haaland team over the coming weeks, our squads are still quite similar but you have the money and transfers banked to move things around far more easily than I do.

Good luck to you too!

[Aldershot Rejects]

I'd not realised that. Interesting to see what happens next.

[Gambit]

GW10 review:

48(-4) points, an above average score but not enough to stop a small red arrow.

Very similar situation to last week - I went into the Sunday games with a green arrow, I came out of the Sunday games with a red arrow!

My fears around the fitness of Son proved correct as he only played 55 minutes, although he did get an assist. Watkins blanked, so the two players I sold didn't hurt me as much as I thought they could.

Salah straight in as C worked a treat, Sels again in the points, and Strand-Lasrsen returned in the first game I started him in.

Raul blanked but I still like him for the next few, McNeil played as I expected but this meant the 9 points of Rogers stayed on the bench. Defenders across the board continue to be a waste of space. Lewis benched after Pep said they couldn't rest him was a kick in the teeth - although the horror show from Walker should mean Lewis is straight back in.......

Haaland continues to dodge points, and this alongside the Solanke mega haul is what did the damage this week.

My team has been treading water for a few weeks now, I'm pretty much holding rank but not really moving anywhere.

GW11 early preview and forward planning:

Waiting until after the midweek games before doing anything, and I really need news on the Palmer injury.

My team looks ok for this week but obviously no United and no Spurs could sting.

I'd like to give Haaland the next two games (Brighton and Spurs) as they look like games where he could do what Solanke has just done this week, but honestly it's getting harder to hold him with each blank, had it not been for my concerns around Son he'd have been sold in GW10.

He's annoying me so much it's crossing my mind to move him out and use the money for Bruno and maybe Hojlund or Solanke. I know as soon as I sell him he'll punish me.....

[Stormrider]

Where you plan to move, Gambit?

[Gambit]

Where you plan to move, Gambit?

I've honestly no idea yet SR, I'm reasonably happy with my squad, and ideally I'd like to roll to get at least three FT's as I believe the rolling FT's and mini WC combo is very powerful, BUT, equally, you can't just save FT's for the sake of it and ignore problems or the danger is you fall too far behind.

I'm not against taking a few more hits to play aggressively, watching City tonight and they don't look quite right, I could remove Haaland and probably McNeil this week and target United & Spurs, then after the break I'd probably remove Lewis. City are not getting any clean sheets and he hasn't had the attacking threat I hoped for.

[Stormrider]

Where you plan to move, Gambit?

I've honestly no idea yet SR, I'm reasonably happy with my squad, and ideally I'd like to roll to get at least three FT's as I believe the rolling FT's and mini WC combo is very powerful, BUT, equally, you can't just save FT's for the sake of it and ignore problems or the danger is you fall too far behind.

I'm not against taking a few more hits to play aggressively, watching City tonight and they don't look quite right, I could remove Haaland and probably McNeil this week and target United & Spurs, then after the break I'd probably remove Lewis. City are not getting any clean sheets and he hasn't had the attacking threat I hoped for.

Yeah, thinking the same about Lewis - he has to go, even for a hit. You have Ait-Nouri in place, that‘s great for this GW.

Team looks ok otherwise, you can easily save a transfer and have more possibilities after the IB

[Gambit]

GW11 preview:

Have been really busy this week and with the Palmer flag there is no way I could take out Haaland and put a plan together for the next few weeks.

I've made two transfers as I have other players flagged and decided to just fix two problem positions:

McNeil (who is a doubt again) to Semenyo
Greaves (still injured) to Mazraoui

I was originally planning to lose McNeil in a few weeks as the Everton fixtures become horrific, but with his fitness doubts I've decided to bring the move forward a few weeks. Bournemouth and Semenyo look excellent and they have a great run of fixtures, Semenyo on 4 yellows and that's another reason I want to remove my injured players.

Mazraoui is a slight risk as it's unknown who the new manager will favour, but he's looked a class act and I'm gambling that he holds his place. I had the money to remove Greaves instead of Lewis so I can take another week or two to decide on Lewis, and it would be Hall or Kerkez who I would bring in.

Haaland now stays for this week and I'll give him the Spurs game too, if he doesn't perform in the next two he'll be gone 100% in GW13.

So this is how I line up this week:

Sels
Ait-Nouri / Lewis / Mazraoui
Salah (vc) / Mbeumo / Palmer / Semenyo
Haaland (C) / Raul / Strand-Larsen

Flekken / Rogers / Gabriel / Mykolenko

Haaland is the C as I think the fixture suits him, and I expect a reaction from City. Also, he's now been sold by a lot of engaged managers so although he still has massive ownership it's a chance to gain on those who no longer have him.

Really unsure on who to play from Lewis / Gabriel / Mykolenko, I can see all three conceding and Lewis is a minutes risk, but if Lewis starts he has the best attacking threat.

With no United attack and zero Spurs players I can see this weekend being the same as the last two - a green arrow on Saturday followed by a kick in the teeth on Sunday!

Good luck all!

[Gambit]

GW11 review:


56 (-4), another so so week, three in a row now, an above average week but not enough to prevent a red arrow.

Getting the C wrong between Haaland & Salah hurt, as did the six points on the bench for Mykolenko.

Mazraoui did well (my highest scoring player after Salah) and I hope the gamble to bring him in early pays off with him becoming a first choice player for the new manager.........


GW12 preview:

Thank God that's the last international break for a while, I have absolutely no interest in that Nations League rubbish!

The good news is that although i've had quite a few flags on my players I now have 15 active players so I shouldn't need a transfer this week to get 11 players out.

Team is:

Flekken
Ait-Nouri / Gabriel / Mazraoui
Salah (vc) / Mbeumo / Palmer / Semenyo / Rogers
Haaland (C) / Raul

Sels / Strand-Larsen / Lewis / Mykolenko

C is my biggest dilemma this week as I have all three of Haaland/Salah/Palmer and they all have a good fixture. Currently on Haaland, Spurs have a few injuries at the back and with Pep signing his new contract I expect City to stop the rot with a good win.

It could be a mistake benching Mykolenko again but Brentford very good going forward and I think they can score, plus Ait-Nouri & Mazraoui have the better attacking threat.

Good luck all.

[Gambit]

GW12 review:

46 points and a huge red arrow! My worst GW of the season so far, not even hitting the average score.

Backing Haaland hasn't worked, and Strand-Larsen hasn't been able to get anywhere near Cunha.

I've been really happy with my team but so many things have gone wrong the last few weeks - Haaland missing chance after chance, Semenyo hitting bar, Palmer having an open goal blocked by his team mate, injuries to Son and McNeil, benching points for SL and Mykolenko............hard to believe that a few weeks ago I was ready to break into the top 100K, now I sit closer to one million

GW13 preview:

Haaland has gone, and so has Raul, in come Pedro and Cunha, will also very likely bring in Saka too for Semenyo.

This gives me double Wolves attack but will only be for this week, I'll move SL to Jackson (or Isak/Watkins etc) in GW14.

Team should be:

Sels
Ait-Nouri / Gabriel / Mazraoui
Salah / Mbeumo / Palmer / Saka
Cunha / Strand-Larsen / Pedro

Flekken / Rogers / Lewis / Mykolenko

C will be Palmer but not 100% yet, looks pretty open this week.

Good Luck all

[maxi123]

GW12 review:

46 points and a huge red arrow! My worst GW of the season so far, not even hitting the average score.

Backing Haaland hasn't worked, and Strand-Larsen hasn't been able to get anywhere near Cunha.

I've been really happy with my team but so many things have gone wrong the last few weeks - Haaland missing chance after chance, Semenyo hitting bar, Palmer having an open goal blocked by his team mate, injuries to Son and McNeil, benching points for SL and Mykolenko............hard to believe that a few weeks ago I was ready to break into the top 100K, now I sit closer to one million

GW13 preview:

Haaland has gone, and so has Raul, in come Pedro and Cunha, will also very likely bring in Saka too for Semenyo.

This gives me double Wolves attack but will only be for this week, I'll move SL to Jackson (or Isak/Watkins etc) in GW14.

Team should be:

Sels
Ait-Nouri / Gabriel / Mazraoui
Salah / Mbeumo / Palmer / Saka
Cunha / Strand-Larsen / Pedro

Flekken / Rogers / Lewis / Mykolenko

C will be Palmer but not 100% yet, looks pretty open this week.

Good Luck all

Good luck indeed Gambit!
Cunha looks decent in your attack! Palmer (C) should be good coach decision.