Gambit's Not Today FPL Blog

[Gambit]

@gambit, not sure if this is anything to worry about in terms of your plan, but it looks like Brighton are signing Estupiñán to play at LWB. I assume that might push Trossard further forward and possibly increase the Potter rotation of Gross, though probably more likely that Lallana gets injured soon and Trossard plays there I expect.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BrightonHoveAl ... ts/wow2me/

Cheers for the info Mav, will have a look at this and see what the Brighton fans are saying.

Whenever I start to check if a player is nailed I always think the fact that I'm looking has given me my answer already!

[Hogmeister]

If I can make it with no unforeseen disasters, I hope to WC after GW8, so over the IB. For that reason, a few of the tweaks I made to my squad in the last few days before the GW1 deadline were done with the aim of trying to ensure a better long-term (8 week) team, and avoiding shorter-term picks or any baked-in transfers, to maximise the ability to flex using FTs.

Perisic over Dias seems a close call for all the reasons you say. If it was costing me a transfer, I wouldn’t do it, but as (until tonight’s match at least) I have 2 FTs with literally nothing to do with them, it’s in effect a free move.

As you say, it’s the sort of move I traditionally shy away from, but maybe that’s precisely the reason I should do it… overcoming an overly low-risk approach. Have to say, I’m very tempted by it, especially as it puts 0.6m ITB too. Price movements are unlikely to force an early move, so (again, unless something happens tonight), I’ll probably wait until Saturday morning before deciding.

[Gambit]

GW2:

A decent 66 points although Williams on my bench for seven points outscored about 40m worth of starting players!

With most teams very similar there isn't really much ground won or lost at the moment, will be like this for some time I think.

GW3:

I used one of my FT's midweek to ensure I had 0.5 in the bank to be able to look at my goalkeeper next week if need be, the move was Bailey (before his drop) to Lavia, the player brought in wasn't important as they will be perma bench anyway, wanted a 4.4 but only one would have blocked me from a 3rd Arsenal.

This means I will be going to five at the back, just not sure if this week or next week. And I will be keeping the 8m mid slot.

I've gone cold on the mid price midfielders such as Gross, he's still a good option but the defenders for less are better picks. This means I could now do nothing else, roll my FT to have 2 FT's next week, play one of Williams/Andreas, and keep Robertson and Mount. This is a perfectly reasonable choice.

However, I'm a naturally agressive and impatient player, and even though I know it's sometimes to my teams detriment it's how I enjoy playing the game.

There are multiple options going round in my head, among them:

Robertson & Wiliams to Cucurella & Arsenal defender
Robertson & Mount to Cucurella & Diaz
Robertson & Mount to Cucurella & Sterling
all for -4 and all leave money in bank to get goalkeeper next week

then there is the real mini WC for -8 of:

Robertson & Mount & Williams to Cucurella & Diaz & Arsenal defender
this pretty much gets my team to where I want to be and the FT in GW4 can fix the goalkeeper.

Think that I've decided on Cucurella as my defender of choice, the comments today from Conte don't sound good for Perisic, and I like the attacking threat of Cucurella v Walker. Also, depending on my choice I can still get Ederson next week with the money in bank.

The player I'm most undecided on is Mount, I really like the fixtures but he doesn't look at his very best and has lost some set pieces. Maddison is still my top choice but with Chelsea and Brighton coming up I've ruled him out for now. It's either give Mount another game or move to Diaz (who surely benefits from the Darwin red card). The other problem with Mount is his price, he's very close to dropping (could be tonight) and if he blanks again at the weekend it would be another drop (maybe a double drop) next week, that could force me into a Sunday night move which I don't really like making.

[Mav3rick]

FPL Review suggests that I do Robertson Cucurella and then Williams Dias (if I tell it that I don't have Foden).

I've still got an itchy finger on Perisic though, were there any comments in particular that have you worried?

[Gambit]

FPL Review suggests that I do Robertson Cucurella and then Williams Dias (if I tell it that I don't have Foden).

I've still got an itchy finger on Perisic though, were there any comments in particular that have you worried?

from football London -

Antonio Conte is spoilt for choice when it comes to his Tottenham team selection this season following the club's summer transfer business. Adding six new players to his squad ahead of the new Premier League campaign, Spurs added a seventh on Tuesday evening when it was confirmed that Destiny Udogie had joined from Udinese, although he has since returned to the Italian side on loan.

Opting against starting any of his new signings on the opening day against Southampton and then in the 2-2 draw at Chelsea, Tottenham fans will have their fingers crossed that there will be at least one or two full debutants in the XI on Saturday lunchtime at home to Wolves. Previewing the game in his pre-match press conference at Hotspur Way, Conte opened up on his team selection so far and explained when fans can expect to see rotations to his side.

"I'm happy because for sure the first target is this transfer market for the club and for me it was to improve the squad and especially after the qualification for the Champions League was to create a squad where the level is the same level and I have the possibility to pick 11 players, but at the same time know that on the bench are players that if they come in they can change the situation, they can give the quality and the quality doesn't drop after the substitutions," explained the Italian in his pre-match press conference.

It's very important and then you know very well for now we're playing one game a week and I'm trying, especially at the start to play with the players that know me much better and know our idea of football much better.

"We are exploiting this time to bring players like Richy, Lenglet and Bissouma, Perisic and all the players we signed. The same also for Spence, to go into our idea of football. We are taking the right steps. We are ready for when we have games every three days to make rotations and it will be good for us."

Reads to me like the new players to still get minutes from the bench to get them ready for when the midweek games start. Could be wrong though, and could be early team news. But even if he plays this week not sure I want this every week with him.

I could make same changes as FPL review has suggested for you but I think Dias overpriced v Walker and Ederson. If I'm ruling out Perisic then my preferred defensive changes are Cucurella and Gabriel/Zinchenko in for for Robertson/Williams, and Gabriel leaves me enough to get Ederson in GW4 for the City defensive double up.

I'm pretty set on the moves, just deciding if to do it all in one go for a -8 or just take the -4 and give Mount another chance.

[Mav3rick]

Fair enough then. Something to consider is maybe if this is actually just wildcard territory, get Ederson in for an extra week, and save yourself the -8 on top.

[Gambit]

Fair enough then. Something to consider is maybe if this is actually just wildcard territory, get Ederson in for an extra week, and save yourself the -8 on top.

I've been looking at it

I mentioned in the GW3 WC thread with SK that I can't see the WC being much use as the weeks go by as everybody has all the best players from the best teams due to the ridiculous pricing and it would take something pretty major to shake things up. Normally (at least for me) the WC has always been to change most of the squad, this year it could be that a -8 is a WC consideration.

Dont need Ederson this week though! Ward v Southampton

One other thing, and this favours keeping Mount this week but moving Robertson is the potential for the Monday game to be called off. Big protest planned by United fans, if it kicks off and turns nasty then game could be at risk.

[Hogmeister]

In your position I’d probably hang on to the WC (as you say, Wardverson is OK this week), and delay the Mount move a week (so long as you don’t get priced out of the moves you want to do by that delay) - Leeds away is not a bad fixture for an attacking player vs slight possibility of postponement, and it saves 4 points.

Otherwise, yes, agree with the above plans.

[Gambit]

In your position I’d probably hang on to the WC (as you say, Wardverson is OK this week), and delay the Mount move a week (so long as you don’t get priced out of the moves you want to do by that delay) - Leeds away is not a bad fixture for an attacking player vs slight possibility of postponement, and it saves 4 points.

Otherwise, yes, agree with the above plans.

Cheers, and yes, I wont be playing the WC this week, not sure when i will need to use it to be honest but will wait another couple of weeks at least.

Despite a very itchy trigger finger i held off the moves last night and thankfully no price changes that affected me so another day to ponder and see if any late team news is revealed later today.

Would like to keep Mount as not only does it save the four points but if he can hit some kind of form then his next two fixtures are Leicester and Southampton which makes him as good as any of the other 8m mids for the next couple of weeks, and with a falling ownership something of a differential too. And on the subject of differentials, Robertson now with lower ownership than Cucurella!

[Gambit]

Decided to keep Mount so have had to eat his price drop last night, last chance saloon for him v Leeds though!

I did make the Robertson to Cucurella move though, it’s not that Robertson is a bad pick it’s just that i need money to get my team to where I want and it was either Robertson or Mount as the cash cow and there are far better options in defence than in midfield when downgrading in price. I could have waited a week but with Robertson dropping (he did) and Cucurella looking like rising (he didn’t) + the potential for trouble before the game on Monday night i thought i may as well just move now, and it frees up my 3rd Liverpool spot for Diaz if Mount flops again.

So no hits, but i am keeping my eye on Perisic news, could do Williams to Perisic if he is starting.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Loving the Bailey to Lavia move - mainly because that was my move this week (Harrison Reed may have been better but the thought of three Fulham players in my team was just too much).

Interesting comments above on WC. I'm half wondering whether to save for GW16 and effectively FHing that week to bring in non-WC players with decent fixtures. That may stuff team value though. Having said that, I'm sure I will end up using it before then. Feels like the threshold in terms of the number of transfers that justify it is much lower this season.

[blahblah]

Loving the Bailey to Lavia move - mainly because that was my move this week (Harrison Reed may have been better but the thought of three Fulham players in my team was just too much).

Interesting comments above on WC. I'm half wondering whether to save for GW16 and effectively FHing that week to bring in non-WC players with decent fixtures. That may stuff team value though. Having said that, I'm sure I will end up using it before then. Feels like the threshold in terms of the number of transfers that justify it is much lower this season.

That WC Plan could be an easy in and out of a BB?

Do you know anything about Lavia, which my autocorrect is struggling with, as 8 WC'ed him in as he played 90mins in GW1.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Could be re BB.

Not really other than he is playing and will probably get 2 pts every week

[Gambit]

GW3:

The very late news that Perisic was indeed starting meant I made the last minute -4 of Williams to Perisic, and he's got a nice 12 pointer to start with!

Ward
TAA / James / Cucurella / Cancelo / Perisic
Salah (C) / Mount / Martinelli
Haaland / Jesus (vc)

Iversen / Andreas / Lavia / Archer

is how I line up this week.

My structure is now set to what I want and there is only the goalkeeper to fix now which will be done next week.

I have 1.1 in the bank and will be looking at Ramsdale / Pope / Sanchez / Raya. The move for Perisic has ruled out Ederson but such is the points potential of Perisic I'm happy with the choice. I still don't see Perisic as a long term pick but for the next few weeks over this really nice run his upside is worth gambling on. Ownership has dropped right down to 15% and he isn't in a lot of the twitter template defences I'm seeing so there is the added bonus as a high scoring differential.

The 0.1 I will have left if I move for Ramsdale/Pope is very important because as Mount has dropped to 7.9 I need that 0.1 to get him to Diaz (or Maddison) if he blanks again. The ideal situation is that he finds form tomorrow because I'd love to take him into Leicester and Southampton.

Other than a spate of injuries I can't see my team changing much now over the coming weeks and I suspect that will be the case for lots of managers, the fixtures for GW4 are outstanding for the current template and there will be some very high scores.

Good luck for GW3 all

[Gambit]

GW3 review:

49 (-4) points for a pretty poor GW, not too many high scores and anybody with the template(ish) team didn't do great. Only Salah (c) and Perisic stopped it being a complete write off.

GW4 planning:

My FT has already been used on Iversen to Sanchez, moved early in the week as Sanchez looked like rising and Iversen dropping and didn't want to take 0.2 on a move I was going to make later in the week anyway. Didn't think Sanchez would play tonight and that is indeed the case looking at the team news. I did consider Ramsdale, Pope, Raya, but decided that Sanchez had the edge on Raya as the best 4.5 and couldn't justify the extra 0.5 to go to Pope or Ramsdale.

Team looks good for this week and fairly happy now with the overall structure:

Sanchez
TAA / Cancelo / James / Cucurella / Perisic
Salah / Mount / Martenelli
Haaland / Jesus

Ward / Andreas / Lavia / Archer

The one issue is what to do with Mount, another blank and now facing another price drop too, if Chelsea had anything like a tough game this week he'd be gone for sure. Can I drop him for a -4 before Leicester at home? Some Chelsea fans think he should be benched along with Havertz with Broja & Pulisic coming in, would be annoying to keep him and then see him benched! But equally would be just as annoying to take him out and watch him score

Was looking at Diaz for Mount but Liverpool were so poor against United I'm not sure I want about 30m of my budget tied up in their players! Also taking Diaz would lock me out of Darwin so maybe best to keep that 3rd Liverpool slot clear for the next couple of weeks.

Others players I'm looking at for that spot are Rodrigo & Harrison, and I've put Rashford and Sancho back on the watch list as they were superb on Monday night. It remains to be seen if that was a one off performance but if they continue to show that effort and desire then they could be the bargains I thought they were at the start.

Another situation I am watching is Haaland and Kane. Pep has made it very clear Haaland will be rotated and that is not something I want from my second premium and alternative C choice. If I see Haaland starting the midweek CL games I may very well jump ship to Kane.

[Hogmeister]

All looks good for this week Gambit, and agree with your assessment of the GKs, Mount/Diaz and Kane/Haaland.

I’ll probably do Walker to Perisic this week (points chasing, I know!), if so our first XIs will be very similar - just your Sanchez/Mount to my Ramsdale/Diaz.

[Gambit]

Having eaten the 2nd price drop on Mount I think I'm going to keep him and give him one last chance tomorrow.

Team would be:

Sanchez
TAA / Cancelo / James / Cucurella / Perisic
Salah (C) / Mount / Martenelli
Haaland / Jesus (VC)

Ward / Andreas / Lavia / Archer

It is tempting to go Mount to Diaz but if he plays well against Leicester gets a decent return then I like his fixture v Southampton more than the Diaz fixture v Newcastle. Although to be honest the players I like from GW5 onwards are Rodrigo & Harrison for that great little run of Everton/Brentford/Forest, and as Leeds are not in Europe there shouldn't be any rotation issues. I have looked at Gundogan but despite his advanced role I don't trust Pep once the fixtures come thick and fast.

If I do drop Mount down to one of the Leeds mids it leaves enough in the bank to upgrade Lavia to somebody like Rashford/Gross/Trossard/ASM etc, this would give me a fat bench and a very strong first sub, could possibly be overkill but with my entire outfield being made up from teams in Europe I think having a strong bench could be very useful. In GW5 for example I could bench Perisic and play Rashford v Leicester or Gross v Fulham etc.

Team would be something like:

Sanchez
TAA / Cancelo / James / Cucurella / Perisic
Salah / Rodrigo/ Martenelli
Haaland / Jesus

Ward / Rashford / Andreas / Archer

And I would swap around Perisic, Rashford, Cucurella, even Martinelli maybe depending on who played in europe and any benching news before each weekend.

[Mav3rick]

Would be brave, can pretty much guarantee you'll bench some hauls!

My head is turned toward Harrison too, especially with such good creative stats. I'll have a choice to make on that as the template does look to be moving slightly toward the mid price mids and forwards now and I'll have the chance to get Harrison at 6.1 to ride that wave.

[Gambit]

Would be brave, can pretty much guarantee you'll bench some hauls!

My head is turned toward Harrison too, especially with such good creative stats. I'll have a choice to make on that as the template does look to be moving slightly toward the mid price mids and forwards now and I'll have the chance to get Harrison at 6.1 to ride that wave.

Yeah defo some benched points, but my thinking is if I do move Mount to one of the mid price mids I will have something like 2m in the bank sat doing nothing. True it's there if I need it, but for what? Because of the pricing I've already got all the most expensive defenders and any injury would just be a like for like change - Haaland to Kane, James to Dias etc

I'm certain that Perisic doesn't start midweek if he plays on Sunday, people without the "fat" bench will have to play their 4.5 (which could work) or gamble on getting 20 min off the bench for Perisic (which could also work to be fair), with my set up I'd be going with a nailed on good player with a good fixture. It's not just GW5 either, would give me the option of benching Cucurella if I didn't fancy the double Chelsea defence for a particular fixture for example. The other potential upside is it would be a way to gain an edge on the template without going away from the template, just bench the weakest template player and play a strong back up player like Rashford or Gross.

[Mav3rick]

Yeah I get it. I think we probably need to wait to see how the mid weeks work in terms of benchings for the likes of Haaland and Perisic, it may just end up that they play 60 mins each match or they may get the last 20 mins or even 0 minuters, but I wonder how easy it will be to predict ahead of time. We as a community are quite panicky about benchings, but we're yet to see how they will play out and interchange with the 5 subs.

If Perisic is regularly picking up 1 pointers, and if they aren't in a one-on-one-off arrangement then I think it might be easier to just back a Trippier at that point, but I do get that a proper 12th man could solve the problem too.

[Gambit]

Yeah I get it. I think we probably need to wait to see how the mid weeks work in terms of benchings for the likes of Haaland and Perisic, it may just end up that they play 60 mins each match or they may get the last 20 mins or even 0 minuters, but I wonder how easy it will be to predict ahead of time. We as a community are quite panicky about benchings, but we're yet to see how they will play out and interchange with the 5 subs.

If Perisic is regularly picking up 1 pointers, and if they aren't in a one-on-one-off arrangement then I think it might be easier to just back a Trippier at that point, but I do get that a proper 12th man could solve the problem too.

Agree with all that. But perhaps for the next few weeks it may be easier to predict than normal given some of the comments we have already had from Conte and Pep + what could be a reliable Spurs ITK on twitter. And even if Trippier did come in for Perisic it still leaves over 2m in the bank.

Will wait until after the weekend games but quite keen on this idea, don't think the risk is massive and there is potential to gain a little bit while the crowd waits to see how it plays out.

[Gambit]

GW4 review:

A solid 71 points means I'm still pretty much keeping pace with the pack, my transfer of Iversen to Sanchez paid off straight away and I now have a keeper that can stay in place until the WC.

Salah C blank was a freak event but not too worried because most had him as their captain so not really any damage done. I've seen a few people on SM make a comparison with the infamous Havertz blank from last season, not a chance it's the same, I had Havertz C for the 7-0 blank and it was catastrophic as he was a differential C against Salah who went wild at Old Trafford.

Mount was again a waste of space and he's now gone from my team, I managed to pick one of only two 8m mids who haven't done anything. Should have started with my original pick of Maddison.

Despite the good week it was slightly depressing that there were basically only a couple of players in my team where I could take an interest in their points. Which brings me to:

GW5:
Operation FAT squad initiated!

I'm not prepared to cut my own throat by going completely off piste and ripping up the template, but I am looking to try and gain an edge without taking too much risk.

I have already moved Mount to Gross, so impressed with Brighton, they have good fixtures and Gross has looked great in each game. No European games and 112 hours between the game on Tuesday and Sunday which I think is the longest break that any team has next week. He looks a good pick and only around 12% owned.

Looked at Rashford and Odegaard but they are both in Europe and for my plan I want players with no Euro games.

The 2nd part of my plan with be for a -4 but I expect to get the points back pretty quickly and unless I get unlucky with injuries it should be the last hit I need to take until I WC.

The options I'm looking at are:

Lavia to Rodrigo/Harrison
Archer to Toney

The advantages of bringing in a striker are it opens up the spot for players such as Isak, Mitro, and even Darwin, and it also removes my only non playing player in Archer giving me a full playing bench.

This tactic obviously leaves me with a good player to bench each week but looking ahead at the next four games it would be:

GW5: Bench Perisic at West Ham, play Gross v Fulham & Toney v Palace
GW6: Bench Martinelli at United, play Gross v Leicester & Toney v Leeds
GW7: Bench Perisic at City, play Gross v Bournemouth & Toney v Southampton
GW8: Bench Cucurella at Liverpool, play Gross v Palace & Toney v Arsenal

Other than GW6 where Martinelli could hurt I dont' really think those benchings will kill me, and I'd back Gross and Toney to do well enough to beat the benched player and get me the -4 hit back.

Maybe it will work, maybe it won't but the alternative is just to sit on my hands for the next few weeks and I'm not really passive enough to do that.

[Gambit]

Still only made the one transfer so far.

Spurs fans seem to think Perisic starts this week and then misses the weekend game, but there have been rumours today that James is injured. Need to decide if still to go ahead with the Toney move or wait until the weekend. Its a tough fixture at Palace so may delay it until gw6.

Pep no help in his presser so C still on Salah but that could change in the next couple of hours,

[Mav3rick]

Think I'll be joining you on the Gross train, although James Robertson is a slight tempter. I think if we knew what was wrong with James we might be better set but I guess the position right now is that he'll play against West Ham at the weekend.

[Stormrider]

Think I'll be joining you on the Gross train, although James Robertson is a slight tempter. I think if we knew what was wrong with James we might be better set but I guess the position right now is that he'll play against West Ham at the weekend.

According to a journalist close to Chelsea (on Twitter), James is just missing tonight due to illness. So should be a realistic chance he’s back on the weekend.

[blahblah]

Think I'll be joining you on the Gross train, although James Robertson is a slight tempter. I think if we knew what was wrong with James we might be better set but I guess the position right now is that he'll play against West Ham at the weekend.

According to a journalist close to Chelsea (on Twitter), James is just missing tonight due to illness. So should be a realistic chance he’s back on the weekend.

I've just set up a thread for him as I doubt this will be the last time......

If it's COVID it will be 2 weeks and 3 GWs?

[Gambit]

Think I'll be joining you on the Gross train, although James Robertson is a slight tempter. I think if we knew what was wrong with James we might be better set but I guess the position right now is that he'll play against West Ham at the weekend.

Gross looks a solid pick I think, still not ruled out getting Rodrigo (or Toney) to go with him as do think I need some players who are not in europe and are rotation proof + giving me a strong 12th man.

I'm happy to continue to swerve Robertson for the time being, ideally I want Darwin for that 3rd Liverpool spot and from GW8 to GW11 Liverpool have a very tough run. James injury (if true) is annoying, I'd just swap him to Dunk/Trippier/Fofana and give me the funds to get Antony (for when he's priced at 6m )

[Gambit]

With it looking like James hasn't travelled I'm tempted to take the hit and bring in Toney or Rodrigo.

Andreas + 4 points v Rodrigo/Toney

[Gambit]

Made the move, team for this week:

Sanchez
TAA / Cancelo / Cucurella / Perisic
Salah (vc) / Rodrigo / Martinelli / Gross
Haaland (C) / Jesus

Ward / James / Andreas / Archer

Was switching around the C, think it landed on Haaland when game updated, toss of a coin on those two this week.

Will see what this week brings with rotation and injury news on James. If Haaland & Perisic start this week I can't imagine they will also play at the weekend.

Keen to add in another non euro player, Toney is who I'm looking at, possibly funded by moving out Cancelo to somebody such as Trippier or a Brighton defender. Would then have two very strong subs but do think I will need them for benchings.

Good luck all!

[Stormrider]

Made the move, team for this week:

Sanchez
TAA / Cancelo / Cucurella / Perisic
Salah (vc) / Rodrigo / Martinelli / Gross
Haaland (C) / Jesus

Ward / James / Andreas / Archer

Was switching around the C, think it landed on Haaland when game updated, toss of a coin on those two this week.

Will see what this week brings with rotation and injury news on James. If Haaland & Perisic start this week I can't imagine they will also play at the weekend.

Keen to add in another non euro player, Toney is who I'm looking at, possibly funded by moving out Cancelo to somebody such as Trippier or a Brighton defender. Would then have two very strong subs but do think I will need them for benchings.

Good luck all!

And good luck to you!

This are exactly the moves I would currently also do (Cancelo & Archer to Trippier & Toney). But lets first see how the gameweek goes