The Hog Blog

[Hogmeister]

Progress report after today’s games -
- Capt Haaland’s lack of goals was obviously the big issue, but given that 90% (that’s an accurate assessment, rather than a throwaway line) of people I aim to be competing with captained him, it doesn’t make a great deal of difference.
- Jesus removed all doubts which might have been there after his GW1 blank (choose you own pun here - keep the faith, etc etc)
- Martinelli did well, Cancelo did what he does and Dias produced another CS.
- Shame about Ramsdale conceding 2, but you can’t have everything and, again, most of the top players either had him or an Arsenal defender, so no real harm done.
- Neto’s 3 points was at least more than Bailey got.

Ended up on 58 points for the GW, with 4 to play (TAA, Robbo, James and Salah)… 135 total, and currently we have a nice green arrow as my OR went up to 239k from 466k.

In my “Elite league” (which at this stage of the season is probably a better indicator of progress than the OR), I’m currently 6th out of 44 (quite a few new names added this week), which of course I am very happy with (and, yes, you’re still top Blah!).

Kinda weird that LiveFPL this week rated my team as “moderately template”, whereas last week it was “very template”, given I didn’t make a transfer and it appears that (other than the Kane to Haaland switch) most others didn’t make transfers either.

Anyoldhoo… it’s a case of so far, so good, and the biggest headache coming up may be trying to find a useful transfer to do next week, given my team already looks pretty good for GW3. Nice problem to have, I guess, and it can all change in a heartbeat as we know - e.g. a massive haul from Darwin on Monday could trigger a bit of team surgery. We’ll see…

[blahblah]

I'm trying to take FPL kinda seriously this season for as long as I can.... (I used to be quite good at the turn of the Millennium )

I really like the WC squad and I have options up my sleeve for the future yet I reckon it's a good season long XI as it is.

There it is on 63 plus Darwin, Salah, TAA and Sess and it only got 1 freaking Green Arrow

[zipnolan]

- Neto’s 3 points was at least more than Bailey got.

Sod off

[Hogmeister]

By the way, I very belatedly discovered Dod’s Blog this week.

Terrific read on all sorts of topics about applying expert game playing strategies to FPL - I was astonished I hadn’t come across it before on FISO (he started it in 2018) and, with this hot weather making sleeping difficult, ended up reading the whole thing, all 35 pages, end to end, over about 24 hours. First time I have ever done that on FISO, which I guess is a good sign of how much I liked it.

Lots of really good insight, things like the different types of FPL player and how to beat them… the various strategies for using the first WC (even if you never use it, you have still benefited from it… which I thought was a lovely concept), and discussions around “volatility” and how to exploit it, the value of premiums, etc.

Just like RuthNZ (who I have debated this topic with before), Dod’s FPL aim is to try to win FPL, and he doesn’t care about rank.
So his aim is (paraphrasing here, hopefully accurately)…
“As a game player, why would I play any game unless I wanted to try to win it? I know the chances of winning are very small, but they are not zero. So I think it would be madness to play to improve my rank, because that would mean safe play, which would effectively eliminate any chance I have of winning the thing”

Whereas my aim is more like…
“As a game player, I know that the chances of winning FPL are so small it’s madness to have that as your primary aim. So instead my primary goal is to achieve a high rank, even if that does tend to encourage safe play.”

Interesting that all of us have different aims and different strategies for playing the game.

Anyway, I’m sure everyone reading this will be already familiar with Dod’s Blog, but if not, here’s where it is…
viewtopic.php?t=129226

[Hogmeister]

- Neto’s 3 points was at least more than Bailey got.

Sod off

Nothing personal

[blahblah]

- Neto’s 3 points was at least more than Bailey got.

Sod off

Nothing personal

Liar

[blahblah]

If anyone has access to the Citeh heat/touch map, could they post or link it. (Preferably for before and after Haa went off.)

The "wide" Citeh attackers were a lot narrower in the 2nd half than last week, but I don't know about the 1st, as I was watching Arse.

[Mav3rick]

Have a look at sofascore

[blahblah]

Have a look at sofascore

Many thanks, I'll have a look sometime after today's matches.

[Hogmeister]

Have a look at sofascore

Many thanks, I'll have a look sometime after today's matches.

As the West Ham-Forest match isn’t the most riveting (unless you’re a fan, obvs), I’ve just been having a look.

Sofascore heatmaps seem to suggest Cancelo was much wider yesterday than at West Ham last week.

The dialogue has been that whoever goes wide and puts crosses in to Haaland would get points. And that at Wat Ham, it had been the mids going wide (and crossing) and Cancelo coming inside. So a slight question about Cancelo’s FPL output in the new-look City attack.

So I checked on the number of crosses made by Cancelo out of the total City crosses for the two games. Last week was 2/18, this week it was 3/27. So an identical proportion.

Not sure what, if any, conclusions you’d draw from that, but hope that helps

[blahblah]

For starters, Bou defended the Pen Box line and usually with 4 bods inside the width of the Pen Box meaning Has had no space in behind him.

They also had 1 wide on each side, minimising the chance/risk of City going round them and crossing. (Remember Canc got his assist from there, after Haa had gone off.) 27 seems a lot of crosses from what I saw after ht, unless it includes corners.

I'll check on sofascore for the width of the "wingers" as they looked a LOT narrower and linking with KdB rather than looking for Haa. Without more evidence I don't know if that is because of how defended.....

I think I may have a source for the whole match highlights, and if i do I'll watch the 1st half.

[blahblah]

CheTot: in preseason (from what I watched) Sterling dropped deeper and more often than Mount (on the left) and Havertz on the right. If Chelsea do get scoring than Havertz could be the interesting one

[dod]

Have a look at sofascore

Many thanks, I'll have a look sometime after today's matches.

As the West Ham-Forest match isn’t the most riveting (unless you’re a fan, obvs), I’ve just been having a look.

Sofascore heatmaps seem to suggest Cancelo was much wider yesterday than at West Ham last week.

The dialogue has been that whoever goes wide and puts crosses in to Haaland would get points. And that at Wat Ham, it had been the mids going wide (and crossing) and Cancelo coming inside. So a slight question about Cancelo’s FPL output in the new-look City attack.

So I checked on the number of crosses made by Cancelo out of the total City crosses for the two games. Last week was 2/18, this week it was 3/27. So an identical proportion.

Not sure what, if any, conclusions you’d draw from that, but hope that helps

Interesting stats. I've been considering removing Cancelo for either James or Peresic this GW. Hard to justify spending 1.0/1.5 more if he is peripheral to the attack.

[Hogmeister]

Interesting stats. I've been considering removing Cancelo for either James or Peresic this GW. Hard to justify spending 1.0/1.5 more if he is peripheral to the attack.

FWIW Dod, Cancelo is going nowhere in my team, it’s just a factor I’m keeping an eye on.

Indeed, the sofascore heatmaps would suggest that in this week’s game he was going wider, and the concern highlighted in GW1 could have gone away. But I’m not an expert in using heatmaps, and don’t normally “get my hands dirty” (as per my other comments) with looking at them myself, so will be awaiting to see what the various pundits say this week.

And of course Cancelo got an assist, 2 BPs and 11 points this week.

So it may well be a non-issue.

In that premium defender bracket, Mav posted recently the “pecking order” - something like TAA, Cancelo, James, Robbo (in that order), followed by Chilwell if he gets back to starting regularly, with Perisic probably slotting into that list somewhere. I think most pundits would agree with that assessment (some would place Robbo higher), but Cancelo is clearly still ranked one of the best possible defender choices.

[blahblah]

Some words on Cancelo......

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... o-24749556

[Hogmeister]

Some words on Cancelo......

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... o-24749556

Interesting, thanks… so those heat maps don’t lie!

[dod]

Interesting stats. I've been considering removing Cancelo for either James or Peresic this GW. Hard to justify spending 1.0/1.5 more if he is peripheral to the attack.

FWIW Dod, Cancelo is going nowhere in my team, it’s just a factor I’m keeping an eye on.

Indeed, the sofascore heatmaps would suggest that in this week’s game he was going wider, and the concern highlighted in GW1 could have gone away. But I’m not an expert in using heatmaps, and don’t normally “get my hands dirty” (as per my other comments) with looking at them myself, so will be awaiting to see what the various pundits say this week.

And of course Cancelo got an assist, 2 BPs and 11 points this week.

So it may well be a non-issue.

In that premium defender bracket, Mav posted recently the “pecking order” - something like TAA, Cancelo, James, Robbo (in that order), followed by Chilwell if he gets back to starting regularly, with Perisic probably slotting into that list somewhere. I think most pundits would agree with that assessment (some would place Robbo higher), but Cancelo is clearly still ranked one of the best possible defender choices.

Only people who are afraid of getting burned don't like to play with fire .

[blahblah]

Interesting stats. I've been considering removing Cancelo for either James or Peresic this GW. Hard to justify spending 1.0/1.5 more if he is peripheral to the attack.

FWIW Dod, Cancelo is going nowhere in my team, it’s just a factor I’m keeping an eye on.

Indeed, the sofascore heatmaps would suggest that in this week’s game he was going wider, and the concern highlighted in GW1 could have gone away. But I’m not an expert in using heatmaps, and don’t normally “get my hands dirty” (as per my other comments) with looking at them myself, so will be awaiting to see what the various pundits say this week.

And of course Cancelo got an assist, 2 BPs and 11 points this week.

So it may well be a non-issue.

In that premium defender bracket, Mav posted recently the “pecking order” - something like TAA, Cancelo, James, Robbo (in that order), followed by Chilwell if he gets back to starting regularly, with Perisic probably slotting into that list somewhere. I think most pundits would agree with that assessment (some would place Robbo higher), but Cancelo is clearly still ranked one of the best possible defender choices.

Only people who are afraid of getting burned don't like to play with fire .

So who from: Salah, Jesus, Darwin and Haaland do I downgrade to upgrade Saliba and Sess

[dod]

Only people who are afraid of getting burned don't like to play with fire .

So who from: Salah, Jesus, Darwin and Haaland do I downgrade to upgrade Saliba and Sess

I don't know but can give you some useful general advice ...

If you want to know whether your tie matches your shirt don't ask a blind man .

Of all the posters on FISO I think there are few who are more upfront than I about their lack of knowledge on the 'football' side of FPL. Unless of course you have the cunning plan of doing the opposite of whatever I would recommend .

[blahblah]

It was kinda rhetorical

[dod]

It was kinda rhetorical

Fair enough .

[blahblah]

It was kinda rhetorical

Fair enough .

Well I'm not sure there is an answer atm......

[Hogmeister]

Review of GW2

GW Points: 72
FFH Predicted: 70.9
GW Average: 57
GW Rank: 1.3m
LiveFPL Template rating: 77% (Moderately Template)

Overall Points: 149
OR: 255k (466k)
Elite League: 9th/44 (5th/27)
TV: 100.5m (100.1m)
Remaining Chips: WC, FH, BB, TC

Screenshot 2022-08-16 at 09.41.18.png

Comments

Another solid week, despite Haaland only getting an assist and my Liverpool trio blanking after the debacle last night, as both of those factors pretty much affected all of us.

Nice green arrow up to 255k, and the team still looks great for GW3, to the extent I may even sit tight and burn a transfer - see below for my thoughts on that.

Good that players like James and Jesus came through this week, after some had been doubting them, while the Man City defensive double-up again paid dividends. Neto again blanked, but at least he's doing better than Bailey, and there are still no stand-out options at that 5.5 price bracket. Meanwhile my 3rd sub DaSilva got 8 points and his second goal of the season Looks to have been very lucky, and would not be at all surprised if he loses his place soon, and I may look to ship him out for a 4.4 sometime to capitalise on price moves. Not this week though - with Neto at Spurs, he remains a potentially useful option (away at Fulham).

As you'd expect the above means I have got off to a flyer in most of my leagues, actually sitting at the top of the 70-person league I run myself, and in the top 5-6 of all the ones that matter, including a 4th place in TRK too. So far, so good.

Plans for GW3

From the 15 I have, the only selection issue is who to start out of Neto (tot), Andreas (BRE) or DaSilva (ful). Assuming Andreas is fit (currently yellow flagged, but I think it's non-serious), then it'll probably be him.

In terms of transfers, it appears the only option would be to replace Dias...

- I could do the ultra-boring move Dias Walker, if I can convince myself that Walker is as nailed as Dias, and bank the 0.9m.

- Alternatively I could gamble on Perisic starting against Wolves and then retaining that starting place for all or most of the next 4 easy fixtures. Probably almost as good CS haul from those fixtures as City's, and Perisic clearly has a much higher upside than Dias. That would put 0.6m ITB, and either this week or next I could use 0.5m of that to upgrade Ramsdale to Ederson, so retaining my City defensive double-up (and remove any Dias rotation risk).

- There's also Cucurella as an option, but I think the above two are the only moves I'd consider making.

The other option is to say that Dias remains the safe option, is less likely than Perisic or Walker to get rotated once the mid-week/European games commence, and getting 6 points every week from a CS is a decent return. And if I'm leaving Dias alone, there's no other move that I like. Even Andreas, DaSilva and Archer still look like the best 4.5 bench picks.

So I could just burn the transfer.

Will wait until the pressers (and any team news on Spurs) before deciding close to the deadline.

Captain's armband this week is going to either Salah or Jesus. If Firmino is not fit, I'll probably give it to Jesus, despite the thought that a pumped-up Liverpool after two draws could utterly destroy a woeful Man U. Again, a decision to be made close to the deadline.

Looking further ahead, with the squad in such good shape, I remain hopeful of making it to the IB without needing to use my WC, but a long way to go yet of course. Only "baked-in transfer" I can currently see is that I'll need to move Neto on before GW7, but that's still a long way away.

[zipnolan]

I think that "Moderately template" assessment is a little misleading. This is the template. I scored two fewer, for a position 120,000 lower down. I think that suggests there are a huge number of very similar squads in this zone. The "moderately template" rating of LiveFPL is against the top 10K, and they obviously don't have the same structure. We are part of a massive peloton.

If I had the luxury of a free transfer (I don't, I have to deal with Bailey), then I think I would make one, looking forward a couple of weeks. I don't know what it would be, though.

[wonkypenguin]

So who from: Salah, Jesus, Darwin and Haaland do I downgrade to upgrade Saliba and Sess

Well that answered itself last night!

[blahblah]

So who from: Salah, Jesus, Darwin and Haaland do I downgrade to upgrade Saliba and Sess

Well that answered itself last night!

Yep

It was rhetorical when posted ie why lose the attacking force, but Liverpool could take a month or so to play properly and maybe James and Cuc are the way to go.

[Hogmeister]

I think that "Moderately template" assessment is a little misleading. This is the template. I scored two fewer, for a position 120,000 lower down. I think that suggests there are a huge number of very similar squads in this zone. The "moderately template" rating of LiveFPL is against the top 10K, and they obviously don't have the same structure. We are part of a massive peloton.

If I had the luxury of a free transfer (I don't, I have to deal with Bailey), then I think I would make one, looking forward a couple of weeks. I don't know what it would be, though.

Yes good point re the current make-up of the top 10k and the LiveFPL template calculation... that would of course explain the drop in the template rating from GW1 to GW2 for the exact same squad.

[Hogmeister]

Update on the transfer plans for this week.

I will use my one of my 2 FTS to replace Dias, rather than let the transfer go to waste.

Current thoughts about the 3 options:
- If Perisic looks likely to start (WOL), he comes in, leaving 0.6m ITB which could be used in GW4 to do Ramsdale Ederson to restore my double City defence. Not entirely convinced that’s necessary, and can anyway wait a week due to Arsenal being at Bournemouth this week.
- Otherwise, I will probably go for Cucurella, leaving 1m ITB and the option of the Ederson move next week as above.
- The third, and ultra safe/boring option, would be to replace Dias with Walker (cheaper and arguably as nailed?), leaving 0.9m ITB for a rainy day. Walker’s lack of an attacking upside, and the fact that all 3 teams have very decent fixtures (and CS chances), is making me less keen on this option.

Note that the FFH and FPL Review models would both (last time I looked) recommend Walker of these three. Bit suspicious of that, especially as FFH is still predicting big points from Chilwell in the coming weeks.

Edit - Updated predictions (next 4 GWs):
FFH: Walker 18.6, Dias 18.4, Cucurella 17.5, Perisic 14.2
FFS: Dias 17.1, Walker 15.6, Perisic 14.5, Cucurella 13.1
FPL Review (xMins): Dias 17.0 (77), Walker 15.1 (77), Perisic 14.3 (57), Cucurella 13.1 (72)

[zipnolan]

A fair amount of (to my mind nonsensical) talk about taking out Robertson this week, and consequently he is at a small risk of dropping in price. Dias is in a team with an xGA from open play of 0.22 over two games(!) as opposed to Liverpool's 1.54. And there is the tiny chance of Liverpool's game being called off next Monday because of the MU protests. So should Dias be the one to go? Just saying....

[Hogmeister]

A fair amount of (to my mind nonsensical) talk about taking out Robertson this week, and consequently he is at a small risk of dropping in price. Dias is in a team with an xGA from open play of 0.22 over two games(!) as opposed to Liverpool's 1.54. And there is the tiny chance of Liverpool's game being called off next Monday because of the MU protests. So should Dias be the one to go? Just saying....

Yes good point but agree with your "nonsensical" view of the Robbo talk - I'll take the price drop if needed, he's locked in unless I decide to reshuffle for Diaz, which is unlikely pre-WC.

Just checked the three prediction sites btw as I still had them open after doing the "edit" above - as you'd expect, Robbo predicted to outscore all of the above over the next few weeks. That's one prediction I'd concur with!