ARs Thinking Space

[Mav3rick]

I think Alisson is actually quite risky. The way Liverpool play they do give up big chances, and yes, Alisson is the best keeper at saving them, but it doesn't take much of a random variation to turn 20 cleansheets into 15.

City just suffocate teams, and their defensive returns are IMO far more stable.

[blahblah]

That's pretty much the Risk with all GK's: he gets more chances to save, which can mean less CS's, and is why the best "Saver" can be the best, regardless of Price.

Sa was ridiculously good last season, but I don't think he can repeat it this season.

[Mav3rick]

It's not really though, if you think about the way that Pope used to rack up the points, it was "easy" shots from distance that he was keeping at bay. Ederson's and Alisson's save count were not that different (60 vs 75) while Sanchez (100), Sa (121) and Meslier (143) were much higher.

If you look at the keeper stats on fbref here
https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepersadv ... ague-Stats

You can see that Alisson saved 4.2 more goals that he "should" have while Ederson actually let in 2 more. Alisson has generally been always in positive territory (because he's a great keeper) but obviously there's just the chance that lady luck is against you. I would also caution, that Alisson is one of the more injury prone keepers.

However his BPs are significant, which is really the difference, and could be a shrewd analysis that I've not really seen before. I suppose the downside is losing out on the ability to pick as many of the outfield Liverpool players as you may want, and that tends to halt most discussion elsewhere.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Thanks Mav, one attraction of Alisson over Ederson is that he is far more likely to get BPs (15 v 4) last week - presumably because his passing stats are higher!

I agree that Man City tend to squeeze the life out of teams, not sure if that changes with Haaland and maybe a slightly different style of play - not much I suspect. Not sure what the situation is with Stones/Dias but it sounds like Laporte might be doubtful for the start of the season.

The problem I guess is that I prefer Alisson to Ederson and I prefer Robbo to Cancelo. Going without any City defensive cover feels risky (to say the least).

[blahblah]

In no particular order, and I'll use Fab as example as he has been the best GK in FPL for the period since his Swansea days:

Yep taking a "spot" is very significant, and who wants 3 Swans or Irons? But you need to find a replacement for your 3rd Lpool or Citeh if you want their GK. Arguably Pepatation and general ignorance of their XI does open the door for Ederson, but not Alisson?

BP's: the whole point with GK's are saves and BP's with GK's at lesser Clubs getting loads when they do keep a CS, which is often more than people think. I think it was when Hudds stayed up and DdG was through the GK pts roof because the MU defence was shite and he made a load of Saves and BP's. (I used the number of Saves (from FPL) and the number of Goals conceded and there defence was mid-table at best that season.)

While I understand the xStuff, I don't read as much into it as others. I remember Tall Paul making a good point (a while back) about their GK and that their defence was set up to only give away easy saves.....

The save counts are pretty much as expected, given how the Clubs performed lat season? If I were looking into GK stats then Save Count plus Goals Conceded is the best starting point for me to play higher\lower. (I think I kinda "get" the best GK without digging out the stats, but the new pricing could tempt me to look into the 5m bods at the top Clubs as they could be competitive with Fab, but probably not with the cheaper Areola.)

[Mav3rick]

Yeah I think 5m is the sweet spot if I'm honest. 5.5 keepers are great value but I really feel like I'll want three of Salah, Diaz, TAA, Robertson and eventually maybe Nunez. Ederson doesn't have as much competition as you say, but I think the jump from 4.5 to 5.0 keeper is bigger than from 5 to 5.5.

Alisson aside, Ederson is not a 170 point keeper due to all the reasons blah lists with regards to fewer saves and also better defenders with more attacking contributions stripping the BPs away. I'm surprised that Alisson got so many BPs really, because again I would have expected TAA and Robertson to dominate the BPS scores when clean sheets were kept, but actually he has been a fairly consistent BP scorer so it wasn't a fluke.

So yeah, long term, I think if not Alisson, then the gap to the 5.0 keepers is small perhaps even non existent if Mendy has a good season.

[Hogmeister]

Good discussion chaps!

Like Mav I will certainly want 3 Liv outfield players, so Allison is not an option. With City however, peprotation means I’m happy with Ederson, Cancelo and one other, hence I’m currently on Ederson.

The other key thing which I don’t think has been stressed enough here (or anywhere really) is that you should only be looking at the first 5-8 fixtures. The decision on who is the best keeper for GW6/9 onwards can be made when WC-ing. And when I look at those first 5 or so fixtures, I have reservations about each of the 4.5m candidates (Raya, Sanchez and Meslier), while the upside of Ederson over Mendy or Ramsdale for those fixtures seems worth the extra £0.5m.

[Gambit]

No love for Loris?

Looking at purely the opening fixtures, which is all that matters given the likely early WC, Loris looks a great option to start with.

Southampton / Wolves / Fulham / Forest in the first six games, it's between Loris and Ederson for me to start with.

[blahblah]

Indeed re the first X fixtures (PLEASE SEE MY TIERS THREAD) as I'm looking to go with fixtures for 5-8GWs and BB'ing before WC'ing in plenty of time for the WCup.

The real problem that I have that is that I'm not good at individual GW's compared to runs of GW's once I "get" the season, which is why I do well from some point of the season, while being shite in the last few GW's....

[blahblah]

No love for Loris?

Looking at purely the opening fixtures, which is all that matters given the likely early WC, Loris looks a great option to start with.

Southampton / Wolves / Fulham / Forest in the first six games, it's between Loris and Ederson for me to start with.

One of the questions re GK's is are there defenders that you would rather have from that Club (and is a question for Def's ie would the GK be better). The answer lies in Saves vs Att Points (I assume BP's will go with the winner).

It is quite possible that Perisic plus one are better than LLoris and you would want Kane\Son\Another>

[Gambit]

No love for Loris?

Looking at purely the opening fixtures, which is all that matters given the likely early WC, Loris looks a great option to start with.

Southampton / Wolves / Fulham / Forest in the first six games, it's between Loris and Ederson for me to start with.

One of the questions re GK's is are there defenders that you would rather have from that Club (and is a question for Def's ie would the GK be better). The answer lies in Saves vs Att Points (I assume BP's will go with the winner).

It is quite possible that Perisic plus one are better than LLoris and you would want Kane\Son\Another>

Indeed but I've gone cold on Perisic due to his lack of pre season and multiple wing back options at Spurs, so when I'm looking at Spurs I think Loris is the best option into the defence early season, Dier is cheaper but I want all the attacking defenders so don't want to waste a spot on Dier.

Kane (another two goals today) has been locked in for me for weeks.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Lloris is certainly an option (although I started with him 2 years ago and it did not go well!). For me that would mean starting without a City defender which doesn't feel great. I'm sure I will be on a Spurs wing back at some point but at the moment it feels like a minefield.

Mav might well be right that the 5.0m price point is the sweet spot - one of them will probably emerge as the preferable option. The difficulty at the moment is that they all come with significant question marks I think. You might get lucky with the one you pick, but you might not. Wildcard might be the time to hop on. In the meantime, if I don't go 5.5m, I may well go with one of the 4.5m (not that any of them fill me with much enthusiasm).

[blahblah]

Yep, that .5m puts me off....

[Aldershot Rejects]

Not sure whether this will be my final team but I don't think it will change much.

Meslier - looking at a couple of point projection sites the 4.5m GKs seem to be fairly close. I would expect Leeds defence to improve and that allied to fixtures means I'll run with Meslier
4.0m - If he's going to play Ward appeals (and covers Meslier for GW3), but if he doesn't play, he could easily drop to 3.8/3.9m and I don't want to be making early transfers on my sub GK to protect my team value.

Perišić
Alexander-Arnold
Robertson - fully expect him to be the third highest Liverpool points scorer.
Cancelo - Man City's defensive record at the end of last season and uncertainty about selection mean that I am uncertain about Cancelo. Having said that, early fixtures are good. If City's defensive record improves and he looks like finally converting his underlying attacking stats, then he can stay, otherwise I will drop down to Laporte when he returns of to the best Chelsea asset when that becomes clear. Alternatively, I can drop to a 5.0m defender if I want to switch money elsewhere.
5.0m - Undecided at the moment, currently on Gabriel but I'm not sure I trust Arsenal enough to triple-up on them. May even punt Doherty.

Salah - not convinced I'll hold him all season but I'm not willing to bet against him at the start of the season and he'll be my opening weekend captain.
De Bruyne - Based on his form over the second half of the season, he's my City attacker of choice. Not too difficult to hop to Haaland if this looks like a mistake.
Martinelli - his pre-season form has pushed him into the side.
Bailey - the emergence of a pickable 5.0m midfielder offers so many rotation options, so he'll start ahead of Mitro in GW1. Will he flatter to deceive and then be filed in the file marked 'Boselli and other GW1 disasters.'? Quite possibly but the upsides are considerable and the first couple of fixtures are so tempting. It might even mean going double Spurs defence on the basis that I can bench one in GW2.
Andreas

Jesus
Mitrović - gut feeling is that he might prove to be a set-and-forget this season who will tick away nicely. If it looks like a disaster there are a number of other options around his price.
Greenwood - comes down to a choice between him and Archer. In which case the coin-toss is king.

The lack of an 8m midfielder is potentially a problem, but Cancelo to a 5m defender opens up the possibility of switching from Martinelli. For the moment Martinelli & Cancelo feels OK though.
Going with the two most expensive premiums makes it easier to get to any other premium. I suspect the one I am most likely to go to is Sonny and this is easier as I have two midfielders. Conversely, of course, switching to Kane & Haaland requires two transfers.

[blahblah]

Shockingly similar to mine

Saliba at 4.5m is easier to bench than Gabriel?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Shockingly similar to mine

Great minds and all that ...

Saliba at 4.5m is easier to bench than Gabriel?

He is but not sure he has Gabriel's attacking (and bp) threat. Reckon Gabriel averages about 1ppg from non-attendance/cs points.
The longer time goes on the more I am leaning towards Doherty - he's much higher risk but comes with higher potential rewards.

[blahblah]

I was thinking that 4.5 is ok to bench, but 5m has to play every GW....

Then you can get another 5m Midfielder (Almiron or DewsburyH) and go 352

[Aldershot Rejects]

I was thinking that 4.5 is ok to bench, but 5m has to play every GW....

Then you can get another 5m Midfielder (Almiron or DewsburyH) and go 352

No I don't like 3-5-2. Quite happy to bench 5m player on occasions. In fact, I'll probably bench Mitro in GW1.

[blahblah]

Apologies, I can't count as you're after a 5th defender.....

[Hogmeister]

I think you’re right about going with Doherty, especially as you have Bailey as 1st sub to cover for the two Spurs wingbacks.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I think you’re right about going with Doherty, especially as you have Bailey as 1st sub to cover for the two Spurs wingbacks.

Thank you. This is increasingly where I think I will end up.

[Aldershot Rejects]

So, 3 weeks in and I am outside the top 750k and yet under 25 pts off the top 100k - everything feels so much more scrunched up this season.

Looking back at the original team I posted here, I did a bit of shifting around when it appeared that Perišić was unlikely to start the first couple of games and went with the Leicester GK double up which enabled James instead of Perišić. I also stuck with Gabriel as my 5.0m defender.

Looking back, I am generally happy with my selections. I do have a couple of regrets.
1. The Liverpool double-up in defence. I still think it was a decent shout but no-one would have predicted what has happened to the Liverpool defence.
2. Leaving out Perišić. Again I wouldn't say it was a mistake and James has done OK.
3. Going with Bailey and the double Leicester GKs rather than a 4.5m GK/midfielder. I knew it was a trap but I just couldn't help myself.

Other than that, I am pretty happy with my initial team. I regret picking Bailey over Mitro in GW1 but again it wasn't a bad shout (especially as Mitro was up against my Liverpool double defence).

I've now made two transfers (one in GW3 and one for this week), reversing my error above so bringing in Sanchez and Lavia for Iverson and Bailey. With Iverson probably dropping in price tonight and Sanchez not far off a rise I didn't see the point in waiting.

My remaining decision (which I will wait until later in the week in case other issues arise) is whether to drop down from Robbo to Perišić. Long-term I would Perišić even if minutes are a doubt, it's just a matter of timing. I often get the balance between patience and being proactive wrong. I was tempted to do the same move this week and decided to be patient and that cost me 11 points. Of course, Liverpool play Bournemouth and I expect them to win, but they just look disjointed and lacking energy throughout the team and there will alway be a reason not to make the switch. However, I picked three 7+ defenders at the start of the season with the intention of down-grading one when an alternative emerged be that Laporte, Chilwell, Perišić or someone else. Well Perišić has truly emerged.

Captaincy has gone well to-date - Salah (GW1), KDB (GW2) and Jesus (GW3). Jesus was just a hairs-breath away from matching Salah this GW

Haaland is the player I most fear, although to date KDB has pretty much matched him and reduced minutes might be upon us.

Longer-term I am seriously contemplating switching off Salah from GW6 as the captaincies seem few and far between for a few weeks - and Spurs have a couple of plum fixtures.

[wahine]

At the beginning of the new season all we have is last years memories and that Community Shield game to base our initial team selection on, now it plays like Premiums are not as essential as they used to be?, there are not a lot of hauls from them so far and even playing the fixtures has not panned out like expected.
Don't be afaid to go your own way...

[Mav3rick]

I was with you on the Bailey/Ward trap, also made the Sanchez transfer early for the same reasons (they have an EFL Cup match this week, but fairly sure Steele will play it, so risk is low).

I think with Bailey we knew it was short term even if he started well, given the fixtures, so actually what's happened was quite likely, just a week earlier than hoped, and with better information we can make informed choices on the best defender and cheap keeper options. So trap, yeah maybe, but also a temporary solution to a budgeting issue which has now been solved by other means

The rotation is going to get interesting from here, however Andreas looks a good option for random bench points if there are any no shows. What I would say on Robertson is that in terms of fresh legs, his spot is one of the few currently with a comparable backup, so I could see reduced minutes there, even the outside chance of being benched for BOU. However, Perisic is hardly any safer in xMins terms!

Spurs look to have been the second best defence behind City, so boring as it is, I might consider Dier (currently thinking Trippier will come in but could get priced out if he goes to 5.2) as there seems little chance of rotation and their set pieces are definitely better this season with Perisic in the team (hopefully aimed at him and increasing his xG).

[Aldershot Rejects]

I was with you on the Bailey/Ward trap, also made the Sanchez transfer early for the same reasons (they have an EFL Cup match this week, but fairly sure Steele will play it, so risk is low).

I think with Bailey we knew it was short term even if he started well, given the fixtures, so actually what's happened was quite likely, just a week earlier than hoped, and with better information we can make informed choices on the best defender and cheap keeper options. So trap, yeah maybe, but also a temporary solution to a budgeting issue which has now been solved by other means

Yes, that is true as well.

The rotation is going to get interesting from here, however Andreas looks a good option for random bench points if there are any no shows.

Again, agreed - Andreas feels like a great S1 which encourages me to look at Perisic. I would like a better S2 than Lavia but with a 4.5m forward at S3, I decided on the reliability of 2 ppg.

Spurs look to have been the second best defence behind City, so boring as it is, I might consider Dier (currently thinking Trippier will come in but could get priced out if he goes to 5.2) as there seems little chance of rotation and their set pieces are definitely better this season with Perisic in the team (hopefully aimed at him and increasing his xG).

I quite fancy the excitement of the Perisic ride although Dier is a very reliable pick. Trippier is pencilled in for GW8 when Gabriel's time is up - he is a decent pick before then although 3 of the next 4 games are away and there is some tricky games there.
My plan with D5 is to HOHO 5m ish players for 5-6 runs of games if I can make it work

[hancockjr]

Am currently on wildcard - I think Andreas’ fixtures mean he needs to be S2, not S1, for a few games, with Da Silva as S1. Appreciate that for non wildcarders it’s a luxury though.

[Sutter Kane]

Am currently on wildcard - I think Andreas’ fixtures mean he needs to be S2, not S1, for a few games, with Da Silva as S1. Appreciate that for non wildcarders it’s a luxury though.

Out of interest, what thing(s) made you pull the trigger, and not just do a move such as Iversen to Sanchez? Your squad looks strong, unless you feel Liv def is a problem.

As I've pointed out before I think the WC is as close to useless as it's ever been so don't blame anyone for using it at any point. I think MSutherns has deployed too.

[hancockjr]

Wanted cancelo and Toney in, saka out and had already done the iversen move. Probably want Persisic too.

As you say, it’s hard to see when a wildcard would be necessary so thought I’d do early (though mid week so missed a lot of price changes).

May be a poor decision, was certainly spontaneous.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Am currently on wildcard - I think Andreas’ fixtures mean he needs to be S2, not S1, for a few games, with Da Silva as S1. Appreciate that for non wildcarders it’s a luxury though.

Not sure what Da Silva's minutes are going to be which is why I prefer Andreas, although anything more than 2 is a bonus so I am not overly bothered by fixtures. Having said that with possible rotation ahead, if I was wildcarding, I'd probably be looking to see if I could push a bit more money towards the bench (which is ironic given I've moved money away from the bench since GW1).

[Aldershot Rejects]

Last minute did the Robbo to Peresic move. This is the second week in a row I have had the debate; last week I was cautious and paid the price. The timing is not great with Bournemouth at home - but I want to have some fun along the way. The early season Liverpool malaise might be just that, but it does feel similar to 20/21 to me. The midfield needed a serious refresh this summer. Meanwhile they haven't kept a clean sheet for ages.

Looking at fixtures, I was wondering about WC in GW9 which I know quite a lot are planning because of the fixture shifts that happen. I'm more tempted to dump 4 or 5 big 6 defenders/Arsenal players and then WC in GW12/13 when the fixtures switch back. By that point, the group stages of Europe are just about finished and some of the non-WC players look very attractive and I can pick a team for 4 weeks only.