Fuzzy Warbles

[Fuzzy]

Ouch.

Tinkered my bench slightly - squeezed KDH up to Elanga in case of a rotation issue - but my issue was a little more fundamental than that.

Considered switching Sterling and Werner for KDB and Mount but it would have left me with a completely non playing bench due to budget.

So it all comes down to Timo (and Kai) - what a state of affairs!

[Fuzzy]

GW34 Review

Free Hit played. 48 points. Rank dropped to 61,000.

Had I gone KDB and Mount over Sterling and Werner, I would have captained Mount and scored 53 – big woop. Had I kept the free hit and made the Weghorst and Maddison to Nketiah and Mount moves, I wouldn’t have broken 40. It was destined to be a disappointing gameweek – I just need to claw back lost ground now.

GW35 is:

Ramsdale (Dubravka)
Trent Cancelo Rudiger James (Livramento)
Salah Son Kulusevski Coutinho (Ramsey)
Kane (c) Weghorst (Gelhardt)

The transfer made was Maddison to Coutinho, and I have nothing banked. I’m optimistic about this week – a Spurs blitz against Leicester would be very welcome – and this team rolls fairly well into Gameweek 37 (after FH36, which surely must be a more rewarding experience than FH34 )

[Fuzzy]

GW35 Review

56 points. Rank is at 52,000. I got the Spurs points I wanted, but eff all else.

I am genuinely undecided about GW36. With a FH in hand, I was planning to play it this week, but holding on and using it in GW38 has merit as well.

City’s European calamity hasn’t helped, and the Ramsey injury adds another complication, to this week and next.

Before transfers, I am:

Ramsdale* (Dubravka)
Trent* Cancelo* Rudiger* James* (Livramento)
Salah* Son* Kulusevski* Coutinho* (Ramsey)
Kane* Weghorst (Gelhardt)

Its really only the Kulu, Coutinho, Kane and Weghorst slots (OK, plus maybe Rudiger) that I would look to toggle on a FH36. The alternative, of a hit to get 3 transfers in for GWs 36 and 37, and no need to worry about getting out of shape for FH38 stacks up though. I don't need to give up much to get Richarlison, Gordon for 36 (and 37) and add Cash (Martinez?) for 37, for example.

More thought needed.

[Fuzzy]

FH36

Screw it, I am going to have some fun this week. Free Hit active, current draft is:

Ederson
Trent, Cancelo, Alonso, Gabriel
KDB (c), Salah, Son, Saka, Diaz
Nketiah

(junk on the bench)

Final decision is between Ederson/Diaz and Schmeichel/Mahrez. Slightly favouring the latter at the moment. (I could even go Pukki over Nketiah if I go that way - although that's contradicting the "fun" theme, and Norwich's threat since the Man United match has been non-existent)

I won't have many matches to keep tabs on!

[Fuzzy]

Nketiah 13, Diaz 10, Ederson 7

vs

Pukki 2, Mahrez 0, Schmeichel 1

Now watch Mahrez get a point for a 10 minute run out against Wolves, keeping Holgates points pinned to my bench.

This season can eff right off.

[wahine]

FH36

Screw it, I am going to have some fun this week. Free Hit active, current draft is:

bench boosting was meant to be fun in "the biggest double game week of the season" also...

[Ruth_NZ]

Bench boosting was meant to be fun in "the biggest double game week of the season" also...

Bench boosting is never fun. Best thing is to throw it away without spending points on it.

[Fuzzy]

Ofc the other twist is that I used FH1 in 34 to bring in Nketiah and Sterling for enticing home games, and got 2x2 points from 180 minutes of irrelevance.

The ironing is delicious.

@wahine, I know you had your own roller coaster this season. The randomness (“variance”) has been brutal.

@ruth, agree fully re- the BB. One of the few things I did right was to get it out the way relatively early.

Serenity now.

[Smurphy Paw]

The ironing is delicious.

81AD0CEC-04CF-4CC8-8D15-4B89FC224751.jpeg

[Ruth_NZ]

..the other twist is that I used FH1 in 34 to bring in Nketiah and Sterling for enticing home games, and got 2x2 points from 180 minutes of irrelevance.

Galling in the extreme. This is the kind of stuff I hate about FPL, no rhyme or reason to it. SP had the same thing with bringing Dias in rather than Laporte, which I'm sure was the right decision unless you are being dictated to by EO. The result? Dias has a shot blocked on the line, Laporte scores the rebound. Then Dias gets an injury that takes him off at halftime (missing the CS) and puts him out for the season. So SP is down 8 points plus the Wednesday game's points plus 4 points for the hit that will now be needed - perhaps 20 points in total - simply by choosing a 6.1m CB over a 6m CB from the same team.

[blahblah]

The flip side of Laporte Vs Dias: the GW I brought Laporte in Dias hauled big style, a few GWs later my eff up is the right decision.

[Ruth_NZ]

The flip side of Laporte Vs Dias: the GW I brought Laporte in Dias hauled big style, a few GWs later my eff up is the right decision.

How is that the flipside? If Laporte had been injured early in that GW, missed the CS and then out for the season, that would be the flipside.

[blahblah]

Only that a few weeks earlier Dias was the "right" pick.

[Fuzzy]

Just to put a full stop on my GW36 moan-athon:

• Ederson, Diaz & Nketiah: 9, 15, 15 = 39

• Schmeichel, Mahrez & Pukki: 8, 1, 4 = 13

Mahrez got 13 minutes (not 10), coming on to replace a centre back with the score at 4-1, leaving Holgate's 13 points waving at me from the bench.

[Fuzzy]

GW36 Review

Free Hit played, for 127 points and rank is at 39,000.

Captain Kev was the highlight. The "should have beens" were a drag.

GW37 (with 0.0m banked) is currently:

Ramsdale (Dubravka)
Trent Cancelo James Rudiger (Livramento)
Salah Son (c) Coutinho Kulusevski (Ramsey)
Kane Weghorst (Gelhardt)

I really don't know what to do in terms of transfers. While there are only 2 gameweeks remaining, I can't get overly excited about the prospects for this week's doublers. And my two weakest links for GW38, Coutinho and Weghorst, both double this week (which glosses over the fact that they are both pretty underwhelming, even in a double).

The 0 bank blocks a number of like-for-like moves (e.g. Ramsey to Gordon). If I hold Cout and Weg, the like-for-like could be Ramsdale to Pickford.

Cout to Zaha, who is on one of his traditional late season flurries, may be the smarter move. Despite their relative fixtures, Coutinho is now 8 matches without an attacking return (in which time Zaha has 5). The fact is that Zaha's away record is pretty good, and United at home in GW38 can be a good fixture for him as well. I may end up doing that and the keeper move. (An alternative second transfer would be Ramsey to Gordon, which would then be in reach. That would mean playing Gordon ahead of Weghorst, however I am less inclined to use a -4 on that.)

Of course all of this assumes that the Cup Final doesn't throw up any new complications. Will hold fire until that is done and dusted.

[Footnote: In the back of my mind I know that Coutinho/Weghorst could parlay into Mount/Nketiah or Barnes/Toney (for example) for their strong home finishing fixtures in GW38, so that's another factor I am weighng up right now]

[Fuzzy]

GW37 Review

40(-4) points. Rank plummets to 75,000.

Transfers were a dumpster fire: Ramsdale to Pickford, followed by Salah to Zaha at the last minute. So much for dissing the prospects for the GW37 doublers.

Still grumpy - need to clear my head before finding motivation for GW38 decisions. I have a big bank and just need to work out how best to deploy it. My starting line up before any transfers is:

Dubravka
Trent, Cancelo, James, Rudiger, (Livramento)
Son, Zaha, Kulusevski, Coutinho, (Ramsey)
Kane, Weghorst, (Gelhardt)

Coutinho and Weghorst are obviously in the gun, and I expect I will make 2 transfers. It's GW38 - hang the -4! Upgrading Ramsey and dropping Weghorst to the bench to sit alongside Gelhardt and Livramento is not out of the question if I decide to bring in two midfielders rather than a midfielder and a forward. That said, my instinct likes the idea of Vardy and Diaz.

I will come back to this.

[Fuzzy]

GW38 Review

And so it ends. 93(-4), and rank got back to 55,241. (I did go Vardy and Diaz in the end.)

There were some swings along the way, but I tended to oscillate around the 50,000 mark from about GW25 onwards. GW37 was clearly a car crash, but that’s going to happen from time to time.

Season review on fplreview.com tells me I was on the right side of variance by 81 points, which doesn’t feel right, but then we all consider ourselves unlucky, don’t we? (It also talks to the shortcomings of the models, but I don’t have the time or energy to go into that now).

Heroes: KDB – in my team for one week only, gave me 60 points. It would be unfair not to mention Son here as well, who I had for 19 weeks, and probably the “right” 19 weeks at that.

Villains: Reece James – I can’t claim primacy here, but I transferred him in 3 times, and he gave me 56 points from 21 gameweeks. (He scored 85 in the other 17).

Odd decisions: James Maddison – transferred in for GW33, when his playing time was at its riskiest, cut him, and then didn’t bring him back at all (while keeping Weghorst throughout – what was I thinking?)

I probably played “higher variance” over the final weeks of the season than usual. Partly because I wanted to push myself, partly because I was exhausted and really time-poor and just wanted to have a bit more “fun” with it. (With mixed outcomes)

Some other random stats/observations:

• Total transfers = 47. Higher than usual, but not as high as I had initially thought.

• Captaincy fails (<10 points) = 10. That’s more than I’d like (but on the flip side I did get Salah’s 84 and KDB’s 60). Captaining Lukaku once and Foden once was about as desperate as I got.

• The chip tactic was OK, and different to most – WC7, TC26, WC27, BB28, FH34, FH36. Happy with the early BB, it just wasn’t early enough – I had good opportunities to play it earlier and considered it a number of times but couldn’t make myself pull the trigger.

That’s it for now – stay safe and keep well.

Fuzzy.

[Fuzzy]

2022/23 First Draft

This is literally just throwing names on a page - no thought about structure or price point flexibility at this stage.

Sanchez (Steele)
Trent Cancelo Laporte James Tomiyasu
Salah Diaz Martinelli (KDH Murphy)
Haaland Jesus Greenwood

Initial things to think about:
- is the 8m better at M3, rather than F2, to start the season (eg Maddison)?
- should James be a second 4.5m defender instead, with the funds used to upgrade M4 or M5? (if not then I’m treating Tommy as a weekly starter)
- how secure is Martinelli and how quickly will the Arsenal play style settle with the change in personnel?

The second and third points are not independent.

This will change a dozen times before the season starts, but I’ll park it here as a reference point.

[boise1234]

I guess the real question is what is it you are trying to achieve with going for a full template team(with the exception of Laporte).

If the strategy is just to stay in the pack then you should keep Jesus (44% ownership) as he is in more teams than Maddison, keep James (43% ownership), and switch Martinelli to Neto (24% ownership) as If you are going to go template you might as well go 100% instead of 95%.

[Fuzzy]

Thanks for the comments.

I hear what you’re saying, but that is (kind of) the point of throwing up a first draft without any thought or research.

As I think more deeply, observe what happens through pre-season, etc, etc, I will nudge it into something a little different.

To answer your question - I don’t intentionally go with the template, but if I am more than 3 or 4 (that’s a bit of a thumb suck) moves away from it, in terms of starting XI when the season starts, I am pushing against my natural style.

[Fuzzy]

Tweaked a little - lots of commonality with other folks around here:

Ederson 4.0m
Trent James Cancelo Trippier 4.5m
Salah Diaz Guimaraes 4.5m 4.5m
Haaland Jesus 4.5m

(0.5m held back)

Green are those I am most settled on.

Changes, and why:

• I like the prospects at the 5.0m defender price point, hence moving the 1.0m out of Laporte into Ederson

• Rotation/role queries over Martinelli. Bruno is more nailed, and I quite like the 6.0m/6.5m pricepoint (but don't like the 5.5m offerings)

• I want the 0.5m for the extra flexibility for an emerging transfer priority at D4, D5, M3 or M4

Open questions:

• Is Ederson worth the 0.5m over some of the strong 5.0m GK options?

• Is Cancelo worth the 7.0m pricetag? (this is primarily a concern about the impact of other squad changes on how Pep will require him to play). If not, the pricepoint isn't really needed

• Double Newcastle? The 0.5m gives me a fairly wide range of escape options, but it feels a little uncomfortable

• Mitrovic? Could prove to be value at 6.5m, but that pricepoint in the forward line is pretty thin and, unless he takes the Jesus spot, it almost forces the Cancelo downgrade. I can't believe that I will start with him, but if he gets away to a quick start then he needs to be considered

• Who takes the 4.5m defender spot? I have Tomiyasu for now (I expect Arsenal to concede at Palace though). That will be a final week decision

[cymbalrush84]

Open questions:

• Is Ederson worth the 0.5m over some of the strong 5.0m GK options?

• Is Cancelo worth the 7.0m pricetag? (this is primarily a concern about the impact of other squad changes on how Pep will require him to play). If not, the pricepoint isn't really needed

• Double Newcastle? The 0.5m gives me a fairly wide range of escape options, but it feels a little uncomfortable

• Mitrovic? Could prove to be value at 6.5m, but that pricepoint in the forward line is pretty thin and, unless he takes the Jesus spot, it almost forces the Cancelo downgrade. I can't believe that I will start with him, but if he gets away to a quick start then he needs to be considered

• Who takes the 4.5m defender spot? I have Tomiyasu for now (I expect Arsenal to concede at Palace though). That will be a final week decision

1) Only downer on Ederson is that whilst you’ll be likely to have clean sheets, bonus and save bonus points go out the window.

2) I personally entertaining waiting and seeing what happens on the Zinchenko/Walker front. 7 for Cancelo seems steep.

3) Thought of this and fell into a false sense of security. Pope in the sticks helps, but I factored Eddie Howe’s more attacking approach as well as personnel. Play safe for now.

4) 18/19, he was knocking them in and gave good vfm, then Scott Parker showed up with his pragmatic approach and Mitro wasn’t the same. My perception of Marco Silva is a gung-ho one, so take that punt.

5) Arsenal always have been a let down on the clean sheet front. Whilst the fixtures are kind to start with, maybe look to Wolves or Leeds?

[blahblah]

I'm here to help you be as shite as me

Dump Salah, and get VvD at the back and you'll not be looking for so many 4.5m bods.

After a few GWs, the 4.5m starters will emerge and you can WC them in having played your WC

[wahine]

Open questions:
Is Ederson worth the 0.5m over some of the strong 5.0m GK options? - The option of the 3rd City player all tied up for the season?
Is Cancelo worth the 7.0m pricetag? Yes, I think so as City have such good opening fixtures I think its best to start big and adapt to fixture changes? (this is primarily a concern about the impact of other squad changes on how Pep will require him to play). If not, the pricepoint isn't really needed
Double Newcastle? If playing a premium defence only injuries would require a transfer in that position? , Newcastle can be assessed after the first two games? The 0.5m gives me a fairly wide range of escape options, but it feels a little uncomfortable
Mitrovic? Could prove to be value at 6.5m, but that pricepoint in the forward line is pretty thin and, unless he takes the Jesus spot, it almost forces the Cancelo downgrade. I can't believe that I will start with him, but if he gets away to a quick start then he needs to be considered I haven't considered him, but it leaves a price point than can be used to adapt to what we see in the first few gameweeks I suppose and we have all been trained to avoid Forwards like the plague due to not one of them being worth owning last season
Who takes the 4.5m defender spot? I have Tomiyasu for now (I expect Arsenal to concede at Palace though). That will be a final week decision If you are having one of those he is probably the best due to the kind fixtures

My 10 cents worth

[Fuzzy]

Thanks for the thoughts.

I'll pass on Mitro, and Tomiyasu who is starting to become a regular sicknote. I can handle going with double Newcastle for their opening two. Which leaves the City question, and I think that's going to bug me all the way to the deadline. I'll come back to this...

[blahblah]

Have you an idea of when you're firing WC1?

I think it's really important this season due to the World Cup and it's WC.

If you are looking at an early one, then chose the fixtures you like, if later then chase the predictable points of Cancelo etc?

[Fuzzy]

Blah, it's a good question. I am not a fan of the very early wildcard (my last 3 seasons have been WC7, WC5 and WC13 and at least one of those forced by a rash of injuries). So I'll try not to target a week for it, but will have a "plan not to use before ..." objective.

With the "free" WC this season during the World Cup, this year is a try not to use before about GW7 or 8, but I won't hesitate to play it then.

It's interesting to highlight Cancelo - the reason he was in my first draft was that I want more than one Man City attacking asset; I don't trust Pep enough to start with a Mahrez or a Foden; Cancelo provides some attacking threat; and given their fixtures I am unlikely to want to kneejerk him out due to form. But I can store value in him, and downgrade if necessary to fund an emerging must-have mid or forward.

So, in a roundabout way, that puts me quite squarely in line with wahine on the matter, so its hold Cancelo and downgrade Ederson. Preseason will help me decide if I spend the difference to upgrade one of the 4.5's, or if I hang onto it.

[Fuzzy]

Tweaked slightly, to now be as boring as bat droppings:

Sanchez Steele
Trent James Cancelo Zinchenko Nico
Salah Diaz Martinelli Neto Andreas
Haaland Jesus Greenwood

Bench cost is minimised, including two live playing options. I have completely backed out of Newcastle, as one or both was likely to prove to be a preloaded GW3 transfer out. I said I don't like the 5.5m mid slot, and I still don't on the whole, but Neto has done enough to convince me to start with him.

The 1.0m I am holding back will let me jump up at any of the 4.0m to 6.0m spots if a compelling option presents. I am a little cautious about the 6.5m to 7.0m midfield prospects - with the transfer window open through GW5, they could get slammed by competition that we don't yet know about (or, alternatively, prospects may be enhanced).

I know it's as template as it gets, but it won't stay that way forever.

[Fuzzy]

Some final changes:
- James to Robbo (there goes my 1m buffer)
- Diaz to Mount

(and tinkered the 4m keeper and 4.5m forward spots)

Zinchenko is my one lingering doubt, not so much on merit but because he potentially blocks Saka, but as an Arsenal fan, rolling with 3 attackers is an anguish I think I need to avoid.

[Joccki_10]

Good luck for the season, Fuzzy. Curious to know what you ended up with.