Paw's for thought

[zipnolan]

Well done on your FH, SP. My experiment of deferring the FH until 38 proved to be totally disastrous, perhaps a little unreasonably. Yes, I had White, along with just about every big name that Klopp rested. And I captained Ings rather than Richarlison (whom I didn’t even pick, which was bonkers). The side effect of this is that my appetite for FH38 is somewhat depleted. That’s the thing about this game - playing against the field can be glorious when it works, but it’s enervating ( to say the least) if it fails - feels like being buried under a ton of rubble. The trick is to do the normal thing, but to do it better than the others, and you managed that very nicely.

[Smurphy Paw]

GW38 Preview

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Salah and Dias out, Son and Robertson in.
Son A hit to bring them in and then give KDB the armband is obviously a risk. I felt that I needed to cover most of Son’s ownership to maintain rank. But going for someone else is what will give me a chance of a rise.
Robertson All of the ‘James is benched’ stories were a factor. I also fancy the Liverpool full backs to have a good attacking game today. I did anticipate Pukki coming in so I’m keen to see how he does as compared to both of my new boys.
KDH Not sure why I played him. @rse

Target for the day?
I’m hedging my bets. Bringing in Son was a defensive move, aiming to retain my current Top 50K ranking. Going for KDB is the differential play that offers a chance of Top 25K.
There are way too many factors to come in to play to be confident about anything, of course, and it relates on more than a Captaincy choice to be successful.

@F4C - Yup
@zip - That’s brutal. Enervating is the word. Better luck this week, I hope that you make up some ground.
And, yes to doing the normal thing better than others. It is increasingly tricky but, IMO, it’s an approach that should provide the foundations on which a successful season can be built. It’s not about avoiding risk, it’s about calculating what risks to take.

SP

[Smurphy Paw]

GW38 Review 61(-4) Pts; GW Rank - 2.6M; OR - 41,973; Red Arrow

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Transfers
Son and Robertson both comfortably outscored their alternates. Salah did come on for a goal late in the game however Son doubled his points and Robbo chipped in with a goal at the end too.

GW38 in a paragraph
Good job the new boys earned their keep! The rest of the team I re-inherited post-Free Hit performed pretty badly. Captain Kevin eventually got an assist but City stuttered and struggled for well over an hour. The De Bruyne instead of Son gamble didn’t pay off.
Saka not taking the Arsenal penalty was a disappointment, Nketiah scoring and James assisting the only other upsides in a bang average week.

Overall
An overall ranking of 42K is my 8th Top 50K ranking. I am very consistently just below the small number of people who regularly challenge for the Top 10K.
I say ‘Top 10K’. FPL Review’s analysis is that with over 9 million players plus so much readily available content on t’interweb, these days a five-figure ranking in the Top 100K is akin to a 10K ranking a few years ago. The maths makes sense. And that I am a little below those very elite players is also true. That’s OK, some of them do it as a full time job. I can’t even commit to being around at transfer deadlines, never mind watch as much as I’d need to, to make any next step. I am happy with the end result after a tricky season for everyone.

I hope that next season we have fewer cancellations. That’d be good for public health as well as FPL - within which so many DGWs, often at short notice, have made proper forward planning more difficult. We’ll also have a winter break and World Cup to navigate. All of which can wait. For now, best wishes all and have a good summer.

Shall we do it all again in a couple of months’ time?

SP

[Stormrider]

Congrats SP, good rank given it was a very difficult season and always read your blog with interest. Enjoy your summer break with the family

[Stormrider]

And fully agree with your post a couple of days ago btw. I also value the always positive and respectful interaction on the FISO forum and think that‘s one of the main reasons making the site to what it is.

[Smurphy Paw]

Apparently low ID numbers are a thing

So is happening upon FPL whilst it was updating

#1194

[Smurphy Paw]

Season 22/23

Not much in the way of pre-season for me. I’m fine now but Covid three weeks ago means that I have had little energy to bother with draft after draft.
So I’m a bit undercooked. It shows. I haven’t solved the issue that I was trying to deal with - getting Ederson into my team without compromising and needing to field a regular £4.5M mid as 11th man.

Draft 1

1. £0.5m in the bank
2. Ward/Iversen. Feels like a trap. To retain £0.5M wiggle room I have to downgrade someone. Who?
3. Bailey. I’m not sure. It’s a budget fitting decision rather than a positive pick.
4. Until the Community Shield I didn’t have Salah and everything slotted together better. But - Eek! - I didn’t have Salah. I did have Diaz/KDB/Kane though and that was pretty sexy.
5. It’s a bit dull. Usually I find a few points of difference. I don’t think I have this time.

Questions
A. As well as one of the Leicester keepers who else shouldn’t be in my team?
B. Don’t know. Covid’s a bit shit. I can’t remember the second point I was going to make. It’s not a one off!

Anyway, here goes. As well as telling me it’s boring (it is), constructive advice gratefully received

SP

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[blahblah]

I don't see Leicester not bringing in a proper GK: what's your plan?

[Smurphy Paw]

I don't see Leicester not bringing in a proper GK: what's your plan?

That was my question. From where do I raise the cash to not have those two as my Keepers?

[hancockjr]

Perisic to Doherty?

[blahblah]

Cancello to Dias?

Mount to one of many, which could help your bench.

I'm far from sure that you can have Haaland and Salah without some sacrifice.....

[Aldershot Rejects]

I think you need to choose between one of your 7m defenders and Mount if you are going with Salah and Haaland. I'm not sure you want a £5m starting midfielder every week either.

[Hogmeister]

This was essentially the problem I hit whenever I tried to put together a 442 draft instead of 532.

I think in that team you need to at least spend another 0.5 on the GK (so Sanchez instead of Iversen) and, given the value of having an 8m mid price point is the ability go switch early on if needed, you really need a further 0.5 ITB to allow you to easily do that. And even then you’re starting Bailey, which is (probably) OK for the first 3-4 weeks until Villa’s fixtures turn, but he could easily lose his place if the opening fixture doesn’t go well.

You could downgrade Perisic to Doherty, but that brings with it (arguably) even more rotation risk, or go for the safer pick of Gabriel. And/or downgrade Cancelo to Dias.

But that’s then an awful lot of compromises IMO.

So the alternative is Mount James, go 532, and then you’ve got the cash to sort things out.

[Smurphy Paw]

Thanks all

The £0.5M banked has been used to bring in Sanchez and rotate him with Ward.

I saw Conte’s comment about Perisic not being fully fit. For now that’s enough for me to switch him out for Trippier (who rotates well with Andreas). That’s £0.5M saved.

Robbo/Mount to James/Diaz retains the structure of a pair of attacking players from Chelsea and Liverpool. It saves £1M. I am hopeful for Mount this season, I wish that I could justify holding him. Likewise, I prefer Robertson. But I need the £1M.

That provides me with up to £1.5M to either:
A. upgrade Bailey to max £6.5M Midfielder
B. Downgrade Bailey to £4.5M benched midfielder and upgrade Patterson to max £5.5M Defender

Option A could give me something boring and dependable like this:

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All that thinking time to come back to something everyone else has. Hmm

[Smurphy Paw]

Scratch that. If I want Robbo over Diaz I should get Robbo over Diaz. That saves another £1m.

It does mean that I lack the £8M midfielder spot that I had written in stone in my planning. So many good options there. But it is only one extra transfer away.
Loads of other changes too, including Ederson in and Rashford not in.

[Stu255]

Having started with near identical teams for past 2 years for whatever reason, I came here to see what you had.


This is what I have at the moment for this year.
I did terrible last year by the way after finishing ~9k year before.

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[Smurphy Paw]

Hi Stu
We’re not going to be the same this year.
Not sure about Rice or Bruno.
Love NoSalah but I’m not brave enough.
I also think there’s better than Mendy but that’s marginal

Just finished work and have to put my own advice in to practice though…

[raoul]

While I am sure Haaland will score lots and be a safe season pick, I cannot help feeling he is worth a wait until City look more convincing (and also have a better fixture).

I know, I know, do not book in transfers ahead of time, but Kane in GW1 surely then a GW2 switch?

Anyway, as someone who is also utilising medical services at present the best of luck to you SP and let's hope for a cracking season.

[blahblah]

While I am sure Haaland will score lots and be a safe season pick, I cannot help feeling he is worth a wait until City look more convincing (and also have a better fixture).

I know, I know, do not book in transfers ahead of time, but Kane in GW1 surely then a GW2 switch?

Anyway, as someone who is also utilising medical services at present the best of luck to you SP and let's hope for a cracking season.

I hope you're on good drugs.....

I think Kane over Haaland is daft, unless you think that you might not make the transfer.

[Smurphy Paw]

I think I’m settled. Unless anyone thinks that I’m not!

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[blahblah]

Congrats I have 7 of your starters

[Smurphy Paw]

Congrats I have 7 of your starters

Oh, f***

[fred1266]

Congrats I have 7 of your starters

Oh, f***

lol

[blahblah]

Congrats I have 7 of your starters

Oh, f***

[Joccki_10]

I think I’m settled. Unless anyone thinks that I’m not!

I think you’re not.

[Smurphy Paw]

I think I’m settled. Unless anyone thinks that I’m not!

I think you’re not.

You only know that because you had insider insight into my flapping around

[Smurphy Paw]

GW1 Preview

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Much less organised than I like to be, normal service will be resumed soon. Still, I am pleased with most of this lot. I am also reassured by the £0.5m in the bank. Where there’s risk, there is typically a one transfer solution:

Keepers
Cheap and cheerful. If Leicester buy Dubravka and I need to £0.5m I’ll use it here. Should be fine for a couple of weeks though

Defence
Four of five at the back
- Trent was a lock from Day 1
- James and Cancelo are uninspiring picks. Along with TAA these three hold my rank and little more
- Walker as 12th man is an oddity but I fancy West Ham to nick a goal. Next week, however…! Thereafter he might stay, he might not. But as Cancelo has c.85% ownership the second City defender is the only way into points against the field. (Zinchenko is one who got away here and already has an assist. Cucurella the other).
- Perisic is my outlier. If he is injured then Walker is a decent first sub. And if he’s not then I have a high ceiling differential.

Midfield
- Captain Mo. I just wasn’t brave enough to leave him out.
- Diaz. My heart says that it should be Robertson as my third Pool player. I will be comparing the pair of them all weekend. My head knew that the midfield needed an £8M player and this was the way I could squeeze in a premium defence.
- Martinelli is already showing why I picked him. Shame so many of the rest of you did too!
- Bailey. Great first couple of fixtures. By GW3 I am presuming that Perisic will be fit and I’ll be able to go to five at the back
- (Andreas - GW2 lock when one or two play each other and might be useful elsewhere too)

Forwards
- Haaland - OK, Kane might be the better option for GW1 but I want to have the armband on a City player in GW2; and I don’t want to book in a transfer. And every week we just know that the one we don’t have will inevitably be the one who scores.
- Jesus - I prefer Saka (& a few more £8M Mids) but I also prefer the structure and bench with 2 up front. Basically a dead spot. Boring.
- Greenwood. I have seen Archer gain some momentum. I went for the player I think will play more and, with Bailey in my team, also avoided the double Villa thing as they don’t have the best run after GW3

I have thought through a couple of options moving forward. Then forgotten them. I’ll work that out as it happens!

Good luck all

SP

[Smurphy Paw]

Review of GW1&2
Time to kick some life back in to this thing.

Game Week 1
Game week 1 was already underway when I posted the Preview, above.
My main gamble was to field Perisic, even though I knew he’d start on the bench. I honestly thought that West Ham would be good enough to nick a goal against Man City. That put me a few points behind the field after an otherwise solid game week.
The Salah/Haaland captaincy decision ended up being a one point game, so one could argue that either decision was correct.
My Diaz/Robbo concern came to nothing, again only one point in it.
Circa 1.7M overall ranking was decent if unspectacular. Not that ranking matters at this stage of the season.

Game Week 2

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I rolled the transfer, reversed my Walker/Perisic playing order and watched the points roll in. Or in the case of Captain Haaland, trickle in. Not the best return from the big man and somewhat worrying all the way up until Salah blanked at the end of the game week. A marginal gain.
Structurally I look to have picked the more favourable combination of two City defenders, one Pool rather than the other way around. Those opting for the alternative seem to be ditching Robertson. This is a risk in isolation. He was very advanced last Monday. However there is so much good value in the £5/5.5M price range that one can field an excellent team with five attacking wing backs without the Liverpool double up.
Overall ranking still not important but mine is heading in the right direction.

On to GW3
SP

[Smurphy Paw]

GW3 Preview

Here we go.

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State of play
By the end of GW2 it was becoming obvious that an otherwise solid start was masking a couple of issues with my squad.
1. Wardversen - Cheap. Very cheap. Not actually £8M of value for me though as I kept £0.5M in the bank. I was shopping in the bargain basement whilst paying for a £4.5M starting keeper.
2. Bailey was one of those engaged manager punts where we all convince ourselves that we’ve spotted a diamond in the rough. In time that may well be the case. In the short term Stevie G had seen enough after one week to give him a rest for GW2.

Transfers
On the Compadres 5AS chat I admitted to making a couple of drunken transfers.
1. Iversen Sanchez
As above, Leicester are conceding lots of goals. If this was accompanied by loads of save points it’d be fine. But we have the worst of both worlds, a porous defence without the shot stopping bonus points.
Sanchez was a relatively easy choice (that many have delayed until next week as Ward has the better fixture). Raya was a close second. I’m happy with the move. Potter continues to impress.
As a note to self for WC1: I am tracking Ederson. One way in to Cucurella is to move Walker out and get the City shot stopper. They have similar attacking threat (negligible) and clean sheet chance (high). I flirted with the idea all preseason too and, as usual, opted to get the money working for me further forward. This season, however, I do think it’s a legitimate low risk, higher upside option.
2. Bailey Xhaka
I would have been happy to make zero transfers this week and ended up using both frees.
The keeper switch was to avoid losing the free transfer. The second was one of those, ‘well now I’ve done one I can do another’ mind tricks. Like BOGOF deals in shops, or the impulse buy sweets and chewing gum near the checkout.
The Bailey move was based on the irrational fear of losing/not losing £0.1m value on a benched player. The tipping point was Andreas, who I would happily have played this week, being flagged all week. I suspect that he’ll be fine but I would have been down to only 11 starters without Andreas, Bailey and 15th man, Greenwood.
But Xhaka?
Yes, not a transfer I ever thought I’d have to defend. Actually, I won’t. Mav wrote a very good post about his merits, change of position, change of role and how Arteta plans to use him the season. Joccki is another who spotted the change. Whether or not they carried out the switch, managers such as those spotting the same potential is always reassuring.
It’s not without risks.
Does it block a third Arsenal player?
Well, yes. Zinchenko is the third player of choice and I went with Perisic instead. Olso, he is a third Arsenal player. Whether or not I feel the need to start him is the million dollar question.
Could he be rotated?
Also, yes. So could everyone. I don’t think Zinchenko is the threat others have seen and I suspect he’ll be fine until the European games kick in.
Also, he’s my 12th man if Perisic is thought to start. Andreas is one behind him. Bar a major issue I have enough cover.
NB I didn’t bring him in expecting an immediate repeat of last week’s 12 pointer. That’s chasing last week’s points. It was structural and it reserves team value. Importantly it means I can still shop in the £5M market if I need to rather than price changes forcing me to the £4.5’s.

Captaincy and GW3 Team
Captain Salah Man U are shocking. I think there will be a reaction after last week. I don’t think it will be enough. The minor concern is that Liverpool have also been somewhat below par so far. However their response to Darwin going for the footballing equivalent to a Darwin Award was impressive.
Honourable mention to Jesus. The only way to benefit from owning him is to Captain him. Again, I didn’t want to chase last week’s points.
Team Pretty much picked itself. Xhaka and Perisic was the only choice. Will Perisic start? The Spurs team was announced 18 minutes ago and I haven’t checked yet so as to write this without bias. If he does, the upside is big. If he doesn’t, his cameo last week suggests that half an hour against tiring legs can be enough.

So, that’s enough chit chat for now. I’m off to check the line ups. Good luck all.

SP

[Smurphy Paw]

HE STARTS!

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