La Gazzetta dello Joccki

[hancockjr]

Livra only 0.4 cheaper than Reguilon. White probably the budget option at 4.4?

If not worried re Doherty, I'd say Reguilon.

I only have Rudi as I got him in a while ago, but after today may end up keeping him long term, unless Lukaku becomes key.

[Joccki_10]

I can’t really justify selling Vardy for a hit prior to Watford at home just to get Trent a week earlier than planned, can I?

Nah stick to your plan. Vardy is a good differential next week.

It comes down to...

Vardy (WAT) + Duffy (LEE) or Benteke (AVL) + Trent (SOU) -4...

[SirMattBugsby]

The transfers look decent but may be a net points loss next GW. Villa looked defensively solid (although that may have something to do with Brighton), Brighton themselves have a decent record against Leeds. So both Vardy and Duffy look okay for next GW?

[Smurphy Paw]

I can’t really justify selling Vardy for a hit prior to Watford at home just to get Trent a week earlier than planned, can I?

Nah stick to your plan. Vardy is a good differential next week.

It comes down to...

Vardy (WAT) + Duffy (LEE) or Benteke (AVL) + Trent (SOU) -4...

For me it comes down to three things.
The first is what faith we have that Vardy will break his run of poor returns against Watford.
The second is the cost of the hit.
The third is the shape of your team

I wish that I could answer the first point. The Watford match is the reason that we both retained Vardy even though he’s making it tricky to keep the faith; and Tielemans being out for a few weeks is also a factor. Meanwhile Ranieri is clearly having an impact at Watford. But the score line against Man U is inflated by those two late goals. It says as much about Ole and about Man U chasing the game with 10 men with Maguire having been sent off as it does about Watford.

In your case the cost of the hit needs also to be factored in. For what it’s worth, this week is not the week that I’d be making that move for a -4. For free, maybe; with an inbuilt penalty, no. I think that Leicester will score more than one next week and the odds are that Vardy will be involved.

The third point is that your team does look a bit unbalanced at the moment. Money invested in Mo, Kane, Vardy and a handful of expensive defenders, along with a dead spot (Scarlett at F3), does mean that you could be over stretched as we enter such a busy period. How would you use the c.£1m freed up from the double switch? For example, having Benteke would presumably make Gallagher a lower priority (for Elyounoussi)?

[Joccki_10]

The transfers look decent but may be a net points loss next GW. Villa looked defensively solid (although that may have something to do with Brighton), Brighton themselves have a decent record against Leeds. So both Vardy and Duffy look okay for next GW?

It’s already too late. I’m not going one more week without Trent. It’s done.

In hindsight, I should have just pulled through with my initial plan and brought in Trent for a -4 for Livramento this week. Vardy would have made way for Kane instead of Jiménez who I would have also kept for the Norwich and Burnley fixtures. 16 points and a free transfer down the drain.

[Ruth_NZ]

I don’t know how I can call myself an experienced FPL manager if I continuously find ways to swerve Trent. Liverpool against Southampton will be my last game without him. Ever.

In hindsight, I should have just pulled through with my initial plan and brought in Trent for a -4 for Livramento this week. Vardy would have made way for Kane instead of Jiménez who I would have also kept for the Norwich and Burnley fixtures. 16 points and a free transfer down the drain.

I think you have to wind the clock back further and ask the question why you removed him in the first place. As soon as you did, you created a problem in getting him back and almost certainly ensured that it would cost at least 4 points.

OK, so you removed him in GW7 when injured and had Azpilicueta's 10-pointer immediately. A win. In GW8 Azpi and TAA were even and you chose to spend your spare cash getting KDB (11 points) and Cancelo (also 6 points) rather than TAA back. Another win. So far that's 2 weeks where the TAA removal was a positive benefit (you had risen inside the top 10k by then) and I'm sure that's what you hoped for. Also it's not as if Cancelo isn't/wasn't a realistic alternative to TAA.

GW9 (another hit) you took Chilwell rather than TAA. He outscored TAA that week and the week after as well. Yet another win, he wasn't a bad signing, was he? And then GW11 you added James, hardly one to complain about either (especially after his cheap assist and 3 BPs yesterday!). So, what have you done wrong? Not a lot where defenders are concerned other than selling TAA in the first place but that's how you do things (the 3-4 week window), isn't it?

The deeper, and probably more significant mistake (me too) was investing spare money in Vardy and (in your case) KDB. Neither of us could see, back in GW7, that having a very heavy defence with TAA Cancelo James & Chilwell would be the best way to go. I kept TAA and already had Rüdiger but was late on Chilwell and/or James and still don't have Cancelo. This was partly because I had sunk budget in Aubameyang (with whom I got badly unlucky) and Vardy.

You have Cancelo James Chilwell but not TAA. And the structural blocker we now have in common (with Aubameyang and KDB gone) is Vardy, who is too expensive to justify his place in a well-structured squad. He makes it hard to achieve the balance we'd both now like but is hard to sell ahead of WAT sou avl NEW. So he has to go - I know that, you know that - but you then have to decide on the best timing and right now seems less than ideal seeing that the next fixtures were partly why we both took him in the first place.

In other words, you can't really blame yourself for no TAA other than to question the wisdom of ever removing him. But that's how you roll, Joccki, and still, with all the points you had from Azpi, Chilwell, Cancelo and now James you have gained overall. Your team was 53k going into GW7 and is now 29k with Cancelo, Kane and Raphinha to play. It could well be inside 20k by the end of today. What you can blame yourself for (if you want) is grabbing KDB and Vardy. They are what have squeezed your options and made it problematic to have the combination you want.

[Joccki_10]

@ Ruth_NZ

Well yes, but all that is in the past now, isn’t it? I knew I wanted Trent in one of the next three weeks (starting this week) and strongly considered bringing him in for Livramento as part of a -4 or -8 this week. Then in the end I convinced myself Arsenal would score just to be able to justify not taking any hit at all.

It hasn’t been the first time this season where my first thought panned out to be the best in terms of actual points scored and later in the week I switched that thought off. So, Livramento and Vardy to Trent and Benteke is done for a hit. That should see Duffy first on the bench next week, although if Raphinha is still out (he seems to be ill today), Duffy will start in his place.

[Ruth_NZ]

Yes, but isn't understanding how you got there important?

What I am saying is that you can frame the question as "why have I swerved him?" when an equally valid question is "why did I remove him?".

You surely can't expect to get every in/out timing bang on? We all try to but as "an experienced manager" you surely know you won't always do it.

Fact is, there are benefits and costs to every transfer decision, either immediate or delayed. You have net benefited by not having TAA. The only problem is that via Vardy and KDB you made it harder to get him back alongside Cancelo, James & Chilwell.

FWIW, I think losing Vardy to get Trent is a good structural decision and wouldn't argue with it, even for a -4. My only question is whether this was the week to do it but we'll have to wait and see what happens when Leicester play Watford. If Watford try to forward load the game as they did against United that could make it a very good opportunity for Leicester's quick counters.

[SirMattBugsby]

Agree with RNZ on the decision bit. Myself went without Trent on GW 7 WC since he was injured, then felt obliged before 8 to not get him back when he was declared fit. But when I went back to read my reasons for selling him in the first place, I realised the situation had changed and got him back.

We've all not picked one high-scoring wing-back or another. Who knows, there may be more to come from Spurs and Villa.

[Joccki_10]

First time this season I made a couple of early transfers…

Need to keep telling myself there’s absolutely no need to make early transfers to catch a miserable 0.1m price rise…

I moved early on Trent on Saturday night: Livramento and Vardy to Trent and Benteke for a hit. If I had waited until the midweek games were played, there would have been a possibility to keep Vardy and get Trent for a single hit. Chilwell and Elyounoussi to Trent and Gilmour.

First thought is play both Duffy and Raphinha and bench Chilwell in the process.

[Smurphy Paw]

Chilwell

How bad was it? I only saw the first half and then the highlights and they didn’t show or mention him being injured

[Ruth_NZ]

First thought is play both Duffy and Raphinha and bench Chilwell in the process.

Same boat for me but it's Mbeumo that gets to play. Problem is that GW14 is the following midweek, so only 8 days away for Chelsea. Then GW15 is 11 days away. If Chilwell has anything more than a very simple twisted knee it is likely to be 2-4 weeks and thus at least 3 GWs in FPL terms. Maybe we are lucky and it is a minor sprain (though it didn't look that way).

Alonso might be an interesting replacement if it's a longer injury.

[Desperado]

Alonso might be an interesting replacement if it's a longer injury.

I wonder if the fact that it was Azpilicueta who replaced Chilwell after the injury is something to note. Could Tuchel prefer him over Alonso on the left?

[Ruth_NZ]

Alonso might be an interesting replacement if it's a longer injury.

I wonder if the fact that it was Azpilicueta who replaced Chilwell after the injury is something to note. Could Tuchel prefer him over Alonso on the left?

No, there's nothing to draw from that. Azpilicueta was about to come on for James, so TT just took Chilwell off instead.

[Desperado]

Fair enough, merci

[Bob Newhart]

Chilwell

How bad was it?

Looking bad... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/20 ... left-back/

[Smurphy Paw]

Chilwell

How bad was it?

Looking bad... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/20 ... left-back/

Never mind my FPL team, I hope not for his sake. I could never compete at as high a level again after doing mine

[Joccki_10]

If Saka doesn't recover in time for Thursday's game at Old Trafford then I sit here with five non-starters after four transfers in the last two gameweeks. Incompetence.

On the other hand, there's also not many players I'd really want. Maybe I should bring forward a move for Bowen or add another, fifth 'premium' defender (Rüdiger, Reguilón, Stones). Alonso will come in for Chilwell in any case.

[Smurphy Paw]

I spotted that you were probably short this week. Breaking down the five though Joccki:

Gunn: is a back up. Unless Guaita is injured he doesn’t count
Scarlett: hasn’t played a single minute. We had an exchange about leaving you somewhat exposed to rotation & injury when you picked him. The counter to that (& the reason this isn’t a criticism of your overall approach) is that having the money invested elsewhere has served you well; and as the highest scoring Forward only got 2 points yesterday you’re not really losing much. But it is one of the rare areas where you’ve left yourself a bit exposed.
Elyounoussi: even Ralf got tired of him before you did I thought you’d bitten the bullet and ditched him last week? To be honest I am not sure if he’s lost his place or if it was a one-off tactical shift to try to counter Liverpool. It worked that badly that a repeat against easier opposition is not guaranteed. As usual it’s only cost you two points - if the Bowen move is too soon you could even save a million for more certain 2pts per week.
Chilwelll: Known issue that you planned to resolve this week
Duffy: Arguably the real surprise. Lots of chatter over the last few weeks about his place being at risk with other defenders regaining fitness. And yet he continued to play, apart from against City. He is a concern for a strong bench & rotation.

A detached view is that I think another hit this week makes sense and would prioritise Chilwell and Elyounoussi. If Saka’s injury is serious that plan would obviously need amending. But if not bite the bullet and sort of the periphery, it’ll not be the last time over the next few weeks that core players are rested.

And despite all of that you still outscored and extended your lead over me yesterday!

[Joccki_10]

Down to 9 players for the week then.

[Smurphy Paw]

Ouch!

[Joccki_10]

Filled with anger right now.

[SG_8]

Filled with anger right now.

We've all been there.. one of the reasons why I think 10 times over and over before doing any hits, especially if the player I'm taking out has a decent fixture..

Just something to forget and look forward to the future, hoping that your future transfers pay back the points lost..

[Joccki_10]

Joccki_10 and Leicester assets

Part 1: Never owned Justin last season.
Part 2: Got Pereira for a couple of <60 mins appearances.
Part 3: Brought in Barnes the game he got injured against Arsenal.
Part 4: Started the season with Bertrand who immediately tested positive for COVID.
Part 5: Owned Vardy during GW9-12.

I’m probably never going to bother with the Foxes ever again.

[Bobby Fetta]

Yeah, I feel your pain. Only suffered 1 and 5 of those but do have many previous instances with not owning / owning Vardy at all the wrong times all the way back to the title season. To some extent the Vardy thing is self-perpetuating for me: I hold off buying him because I know it will end in tears, only giving in at the point when it becomes inevitable he'll run out of steam; then can't wait to dump him so do it too soon.

[Joccki_10]

Chilwell to Alonso is done for free and I’m now making my mind up whether to take a hit for either Bowen (which means bringing a move forward since he was pencilled in for GW16) or Gündoğan and who to take out from Saka and Elyounoussi or not take a hit at all.

[hancockjr]

Yeah, I feel your pain. Only suffered 1 and 5 of those but do have many previous instances with not owning / owning Vardy at all the wrong times all the way back to the title season. To some extent the Vardy thing is self-perpetuating for me: I hold off buying him because I know it will end in tears, only giving in at the point when it becomes inevitable he'll run out of steam; then can't wait to dump him so do it too soon.

I've not checked the stats (though his record against Man City is well known) but I think Vardy is relatively fixture proof as he plays well on the break, which Leics tend to do more against better teams, hence it's always been hard to predict when he'll do well. I err on avoid him for that reason (including the fact it makes him hard to captain).

[Joccki_10]

I’ve settled on leaving Gündoğan for now. As soon as De Bruyne is back from COVID and starts playing again, I’m fairly sure Gündoğan’s numbers will drop off a cliff.

Some research on all his PL minutes from this and last season (>2500) shows me that, per 90, his non-penalty xG without KDB is 0.42 as opposed to 0.28 with him, and his xA without KDB is 0.30 as opposed to 0.11 with him.

[Ruth_NZ]

Might seem off the wall but Rashica has been playing very well under Smith (who tried to sign him at Villa) and could be a nice, cheap 11th outfielder if you want to go that way. Not sure it's worth a hit, though, not unless you feel that changing Elyounoussi will be a hit whenever you do it?

As for Bowen, I had him earmarked as well but the benching last weekend was a bit off-putting maybe? May have just been squad-juggling because Bowen started in the EL and the more defensive Masuaku played at the weekend. Not easy to read that with confidence.

Agree with you about Gündoğan. Bernardo Silva I like, though; he is increasingly playing the role that David Silva used to have for them.

[Ruth_NZ]

...Rashica..

Yes, I am indeed recommending injured players now.