Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
It seems like the clean sheets have to come for United eventually (they have 4 in 4 Europa league games fwiw).
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
It has become increasingly easy to create a very cheap but effective squad. Not sure I'd want to spread the money around though; FPL changes so fast that one injury, etc and instant cash is required again. Sometimes I think it's better flexi-wise to have some money banked than on the bench.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑07 Nov 2019, 23:21 The main issue I'm struggling with is that there's almost too much value out there at the moment.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
That's a fair point. I'm just trying to think out loud how to square the circle that the value presents and the associated benching headaches. Maybe we just have to take it on the chin and accept hauls will be benched from time to time this season.Sutter Kane wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 08:04It has become increasingly easy to create a very cheap but effective squad. Not sure I'd want to spread the money around though; FPL changes so fast that one injury, etc and instant cash is required again. Sometimes I think it's better flexi-wise to have some money banked than on the bench.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑07 Nov 2019, 23:21 The main issue I'm struggling with is that there's almost too much value out there at the moment.
Last year I remember running for a reasonably large stretch of the season rotating between Fraser and rondon who I got for about 5.7m each. I accept that's not the most efficient way to use funds but it did seem to work reasonably well. Maybe this season with Lundstrum offering what he can for 4.0 and soyuncu at 4.5m, and many getting mount for 6.0-6.3m, you could have guys at 6.0-7.0m rotated according to fixture!
I guess the alternative may be to keep paring your squad back to enable mane, sterling, kdb and a vardy/firmino/auba type, a way of simply targeting the likely highest point scorers in the game as there is no budget pressure.
Maybe I'm going about this wrong and should just target who the top scorers in the game are going to be this season:
Henderson
TAA Robbo Lundstrum
Mane KDB Sterling Salah Mount/Maddison/Pulisic
Vardy Abraham
Something like that? And if the midfield is unaffordable just swap out Salah to one of the other mids or a Chilwell/Pereira type?
What do you guys reckon?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Absolutely! Though got 4 Liv in there so couldn't have Salah/Mane anyway. This value thing is going to get much worse from around GW14/5 - the likes of Tomori, Soyuncu and Lundstram become absolutely unbenchable so it could be 4 at the back which would imply 2 benched attacking players in a potentially 'fat' squad! This is a reason why I've all but decided to stick with Connolly and Sterling instead of moving onto the Vardy and Maddison 'fat' squad.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 08:45 Henderson
TAA Robbo Lundstrum
Mane KDB Sterling Salah Mount/Maddison/Pulisic
Vardy Abraham
Something like that? And if the midfield is unaffordable just swap out Salah to one of the other mids or a Chilwell/Pereira type?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I'm in the 'fat' squad camp at the moment with a front eight of
Salah/KDB/Martial/Mount/Maddison
Firmino/Abraham/Maupay
The plan had always been to downgrade Mauapy to Connolly/Greenwood, depending on how much funds were needed elsewhere. But, the defensive value of Soyuncu, Lundstrum and Tomori, means I'm in no hurry to shift those funds backwards, so I'm just going to run with Maupay, who covers Mount's bad GW 13 ok, until I decide where to put those funds. I certainly don't think there's any need to run with a fat squad though, even as rotation season hits in Dec and Jan, because as Sutter alludes to above, even with a 'normal' squad you're likely to have a solid first, and even second sub most weeks, because of the high scoring, low priced players this season.
Salah/KDB/Martial/Mount/Maddison
Firmino/Abraham/Maupay
The plan had always been to downgrade Mauapy to Connolly/Greenwood, depending on how much funds were needed elsewhere. But, the defensive value of Soyuncu, Lundstrum and Tomori, means I'm in no hurry to shift those funds backwards, so I'm just going to run with Maupay, who covers Mount's bad GW 13 ok, until I decide where to put those funds. I certainly don't think there's any need to run with a fat squad though, even as rotation season hits in Dec and Jan, because as Sutter alludes to above, even with a 'normal' squad you're likely to have a solid first, and even second sub most weeks, because of the high scoring, low priced players this season.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
This only works whilst Leicester and Chelsea are over performing. Both are a bit overly reliant on their strikers (Abraham and Vardy). They are stoppable if they get tactically "found out" by another Premier League manager. Figuring out how to stop City or Liverpool is a much taller order! and I doubt other Premier League teams have the on-field resources to do what it would require.Sutter Kane wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 10:23Absolutely! Though got 4 Liv in there so couldn't have Salah/Mane anyway. This value thing is going to get much worse from around GW14/5 - the likes of Tomori, Soyuncu and Lundstram become absolutely unbenchable so it could be 4 at the back which would imply 2 benched attacking players in a potentially 'fat' squad! This is a reason why I've all but decided to stick with Connolly and Sterling instead of moving onto the Vardy and Maddison 'fat' squad.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 08:45 Henderson
TAA Robbo Lundstrum
Mane KDB Sterling Salah Mount/Maddison/Pulisic
Vardy Abraham
Something like that? And if the midfield is unaffordable just swap out Salah to one of the other mids or a Chilwell/Pereira type?
This year City just seem to be very reliant on KDB, which is unusual given their squad depth and Liverpool might actually be the most robust squad in terms as Mane's recent improvement means they are noticeably less reliant on Salah. I just think Leicester and Chelsea are little bit brittle and City are more brittle than usual, but Liverpool are less so.
In terms of FPL I think we are rather unconstrained by TV whilst both Leicester and Chelsea maintain their current performance but I would be amazed if it continues for many months.
FPL seems to be about locking onto a particular team structure and not spoiling it whilst it lasts, then restructuring when the landscape shifts.
In my second season I'm starting to learn that FPL management is much more episodic than continual.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Has anybody considered James Ward-Prowse? Played 90 minutes in every single game this season, great run of fixtures for the next 7 gameweeks (even his bad fixture is Arsenal away), on set pieces, potentially on penalties, only 5.8...
Or are Southampton just too ropey to consider?
Or are Southampton just too ropey to consider?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Yes I considered him and Redmond from GW14 and still might. There's a host of potential great value options around that price but it only really fits if your squad is set up that way. Players/teams are only in/out of form until they're not and fixtures can often change the tide. BUT, it's a problem I mentioned above and Dino restated; having JWP is great for his fixtures but you may have to choose between him and Lundstram with an equally great fixture, which then dampens any enthusiasm.
On another point, even if Chelsea/Leicester lose some form, there's no way you'd rotate them onto the bench of a big squad if they have a reasonable fixture, would you? The likes of Mount and Abraham have been so good that even a 20% drop off would keep them at elite value level.
On another point, even if Chelsea/Leicester lose some form, there's no way you'd rotate them onto the bench of a big squad if they have a reasonable fixture, would you? The likes of Mount and Abraham have been so good that even a 20% drop off would keep them at elite value level.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Well, I know what you mean, but would you rather pick someone with a dodgy fixture to avoid having that choice? Isn’t this kind of selection issue that ‘real managers’ always say is “a nice problem to have”? I guess the difference is that as FPL managers we always see the downside of our selections made real in terms of ‘POB’, whereas real managers don’t get to find out what might have been.Sutter Kane wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 12:26 ... BUT, it's a problem I mentioned above and Dino restated; having JWP is great for his fixtures but you may have to choose between him and Lundstram with an equally great fixture, which then dampens any enthusiasm.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I'm wondering about going with a 'fat' squad from GW17. I may well have a couple of million spare. That would open up the possibility of a GW17 BB and would provide a good bench to cover Liverpool's blank in GW18 (especially as Leicester play Man City as well) by which point we are in the Christmas fixtures where once again a strong bench can be an advantage. Of course something is bound to happen before GW17 that scuppers my plansSutter Kane wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 08:04It has become increasingly easy to create a very cheap but effective squad. Not sure I'd want to spread the money around though; FPL changes so fast that one injury, etc and instant cash is required again. Sometimes I think it's better flexi-wise to have some money banked than on the bench.TheRumourMill wrote: ↑07 Nov 2019, 23:21 The main issue I'm struggling with is that there's almost too much value out there at the moment.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Well no of course not, but your scenario implies I have not planned properly with my 'on-a-diet' squad thus I have a dodgy fixture. Preposterous!Mr Clarinet wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 14:39Well, I know what you mean, but would you rather pick someone with a dodgy fixture to avoid having that choice? Isn’t this kind of selection issue that ‘real managers’ always say is “a nice problem to have”? I guess the difference is that as FPL managers we always see the downside of our selections made real in terms of ‘POB’, whereas real managers don’t get to find out what might have been.Sutter Kane wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 12:26 ... BUT, it's a problem I mentioned above and Dino restated; having JWP is great for his fixtures but you may have to choose between him and Lundstram with an equally great fixture, which then dampens any enthusiasm.
My main issue with spreading the cash towards a paunchy squad with choices is reversing decisions. You're right, whilst it's annoying to have points benched, it's not the end of the world. But my preference overall is still to have all my money in my XI not on my bench. This year with all the value picks means you don't need strong subs.
So for my squad situation, this comes down to Sterling vs Vardy and nothing else because additional cash is redundant. I'd captain neither for a long time because of the juxtaposition of the 'nice' (GW15/17) fixtures. Factoring in transfers, I pick Sterling. The key point for me is that the extra cash won't help me create a stronger squad. If it was 4mn, then yes it would. If for others, the 2.5mn does get them to Robertson, etc, then I see massive value in the move - but not imo to create yet another strong bench player.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
If there one thing we know in FPL, the landscape will be completely different in 6 weeks. We talk and discuss but in the end, its all futile. All of it.Aldershot Rejects wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 15:40 Of course something is bound to happen before GW17 that scuppers my plans
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Actually I was thinking mainly of my own chaotic situation in which dodgy plans, dodgy fixtures, dodgy players and dodgy decisions compete for my attention on a weekly basis...Sutter Kane wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 15:52 ... but your scenario implies I have not planned properly with my 'on-a-diet' squad thus I have a dodgy fixture. Preposterous!
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Any ideas on this? I completely forgot to take out Cantwell before he dropped so now only have £5.7m to replace him. Are there any decent cheap midfield options that I might have missed? I notice Hayden is on the FFS watch list but can't understand why.Sammy the Crab wrote: ↑03 Nov 2019, 15:57 Pope, 4.0
Alexander-Arnold, Soyuncu, Tomori, Lundstram, Rico
Sterling, Mane, De Bruyne, Mount, Cantwell
Vardy, Abraham, Greenwood
1 transfer, £1.0m in the bank.
Cantwell hasn't worked out and it looks like he's dropping very soon. I would have 1.0 to replace him which would get me McGinn who I'm not thrilled about but is clearly a better option than Cantwell.
The other option is to take Cantwell's drop and maybe move out Sterling next week.
Any advice? Is there a better midfield option than McGinn that I've missed? I still have all chips to play.
I might just leave him in for WAT and then reassess next week with two free trans.
I'm starting to feel the pain of having a low team value. Someone posted the exact same team as mine yesterday on here with Martial instead of Cantwell which was quite depressing!
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Maybe just bank the transfer for now and then consider upgrading Rico with your cash and some savings on Cantwell to Dendoncker. A 4th defender at around 6m such as VVD might be better than an extra midfielder.
If you find a spare transfer then Greenwood to Connolly would give you good enough cover even if Cantwell stays benched with Hernandez now back. It would just be a worry how much TV might be lost holding on to him.
If you find a spare transfer then Greenwood to Connolly would give you good enough cover even if Cantwell stays benched with Hernandez now back. It would just be a worry how much TV might be lost holding on to him.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Ouch that drop really hurt you. There are a couple of nice options at 5.8! If you really want to make a transfer and Norwich have their attacking verve back you could go sideways (maybe diagonally upwards?) to the recently fit Onel Hernandez who is 5.3m.Sammy the Crab wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 17:08Any ideas on this? I completely forgot to take out Cantwell before he dropped so now only have £5.7m to replace him. Are there any decent cheap midfield options that I might have missed? I notice Hayden is on the FFS watch list but can't understand why.Sammy the Crab wrote: ↑03 Nov 2019, 15:57 Pope, 4.0
Alexander-Arnold, Soyuncu, Tomori, Lundstram, Rico
Sterling, Mane, De Bruyne, Mount, Cantwell
Vardy, Abraham, Greenwood
1 transfer, £1.0m in the bank.
Cantwell hasn't worked out and it looks like he's dropping very soon. I would have 1.0 to replace him which would get me McGinn who I'm not thrilled about but is clearly a better option than Cantwell.
The other option is to take Cantwell's drop and maybe move out Sterling next week.
Any advice? Is there a better midfield option than McGinn that I've missed? I still have all chips to play.
I might just leave him in for WAT and then reassess next week with two free trans.
I'm starting to feel the pain of having a low team value. Someone posted the exact same team as mine yesterday on here with Martial instead of Cantwell which was quite depressing!
I am considering going back to 3-4-3 with Vardy, Abraham, Jimenez as the front three. Three players in form, scoring goals, and two of them are on penalties.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Greenwood to Connolly is on my radar but with Brighton's fixtures it's not top of my list for now.Mav3rick wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 17:37 Maybe just bank the transfer for now and then consider upgrading Rico with your cash and some savings on Cantwell to Dendoncker. A 4th defender at around 6m such as VVD might be better than an extra midfielder.
If you find a spare transfer then Greenwood to Connolly would give you good enough cover even if Cantwell stays benched with Hernandez now back. It would just be a worry how much TV might be lost holding on to him.
I'm quite happy with my defence to be fair. The big defenders haven't really been worthwhile so far. Rico is ahead of VVD on points per game for example.
I would really want Cantwell out this week if he's not going to play.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Well Hernandez has usurped Cantwell in the starting line-up tonight. If you made that transfer you have a starter with attacking potential (if Norwich are on song).
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I had a choice to make between Chilwell and Robertson coming in for Walker (already have TAA but no Leicester defence).Aldershot Rejects wrote:Yes, thanks Bobby. I've been wondering about the Burnley defensive figures - seems like a complete turnaround from a couple of years ago.
As TRM says, Brighton's attack is looking good. Brighton's defensive stats are also interesting - they tend to be a bit all or nothing. They have an xGA under 1 in 5 games (and have converted 4 of those to cs) but they also have an xGA of over 2 in 4 games (and have conceded 10 goals in those games). Certainly they look good as a rotation option in defence.
The attacking figures for Chelsea also confirm what seems to be happening in real life and that is that they are now a match for Liverpool and at a much lower price.
Leicester are significantly over-achieving offensively. Their xG is way beneath both Liverpool and Chelsea but they have outscored both. Whilst the Southampton game distorts things somewhat, it is part of a wider trend. I wonder how much of that is due to Vardy who seems to always perform above xG expectations. Defensively I am wondering whether they or Liverpool are worth doubling-up on given the attacking threat both defences also offer. Perreira or Robbo anyone?
Ideally would've waited for GW 13, but price changes were imminent. Went for Chilwell because Leicester fixture schedule is less hectic, plus their home fixtures look good for CSs.
D4 position is still unclear (don't know if I even want it). Some bottom teams play each other in the next few weeks, so maybe we could look at somebody from say Watford?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
I've already got TAA, Lundstam and Soyu (not to mention Diop at D5 ) so D3 & D4 sorted, just looking for my D2.SirMattBugsby wrote: ↑08 Nov 2019, 21:32I had a choice to make between Chilwell and Robertson coming in for Walker (already have TAA but no Leicester defence).Aldershot Rejects wrote:Yes, thanks Bobby. I've been wondering about the Burnley defensive figures - seems like a complete turnaround from a couple of years ago.
As TRM says, Brighton's attack is looking good. Brighton's defensive stats are also interesting - they tend to be a bit all or nothing. They have an xGA under 1 in 5 games (and have converted 4 of those to cs) but they also have an xGA of over 2 in 4 games (and have conceded 10 goals in those games). Certainly they look good as a rotation option in defence.
The attacking figures for Chelsea also confirm what seems to be happening in real life and that is that they are now a match for Liverpool and at a much lower price.
Leicester are significantly over-achieving offensively. Their xG is way beneath both Liverpool and Chelsea but they have outscored both. Whilst the Southampton game distorts things somewhat, it is part of a wider trend. I wonder how much of that is due to Vardy who seems to always perform above xG expectations. Defensively I am wondering whether they or Liverpool are worth doubling-up on given the attacking threat both defences also offer. Perreira or Robbo anyone?
Ideally would've waited for GW 13, but price changes were imminent. Went for Chilwell because Leicester fixture schedule is less hectic, plus their home fixtures look good for CSs.
D4 position is still unclear (don't know if I even want it). Some bottom teams play each other in the next few weeks, so maybe we could look at somebody from say Watford?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Pirlo's Beard wrote: ↑29 Oct 2019, 22:15So in other words, they have a mid-table defence? Vardy at home against a mid-table defence sounds pretty good to me.
Vardy 12
Abraham 8
Son 8
Kane 2
Let's see how your Martial pick gets on tomorrow. You're bound to get 1 out of 4 right.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
Tricky decision ahead now whether to bring Vardy in. His ownership will continue to rise and the immediate fixtures are good. It will be a two transfer move for me to get him so either a hit or a roll then move the following week. Then it's a choice of losing Jimenez or Connolly (and a move to 4-3-3) neither of which I'm that keen on but may be necessary. Oh well up to a couple of weeks to mull it over at least.
Last edited by Pulpy on 09 Nov 2019, 20:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
They all were good options and they all scored well except Kane (and Martial is yet to play). What's your point really?
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
You have misunderstood what "pointing out" means because you have not pointed out anything.Pirlo's Beard wrote: ↑09 Nov 2019, 20:08Apart from pointing out that you clearly underestimated Vardy? No point at all really.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
If outcomes prove us wrong we are all wrong on a weekly basis in this game.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
This is obviously true. I think every sensible person knows it.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 09 Nov 2019, 20:41, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)
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