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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Mo Bot »

The first international break wildcard folks had the advantage of being just after the transfer window closed therefore the advantage was to pick the new players along with cheap starters showing themselves after the first couple of GWs. With the new transfer window date and a seemingly increasing frequency of internationalitis, it's a bit of an old school making TV move.

I'd suggest that a popular move may be to use the wildcard to de-Liverpool or re-Liverpool around the club world championships. Personally, I accept that my team will have gone wrong before then and will need to figure out another way round it.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

The 1st Wildcard (Part II)

In my last theory post (on p24) I looked at various different ways of utilising the 1st wildcard. These are not exhaustive but they will serve as examples to illustrate the themes I am looking to explore in this post. For reference they were:

Type 0 - Get Out of Jail Free
Type 1 - Bench Boost
Type 2 - Team Value
Type 3 - 1st International Break
Type 4 - Fixture Shift
Type 5 - Festive Congestion


Please refer to the earlier post for explanations of each type. In this post I will just use T0, T1, T2, etc.

Let us consider first what factors affect the efficient utilisation of the 1st wildcard.

The obvious place to start is with information. With only last year's results and the massively misleading pre-season friendlies to go on, you will never have less information than at the start of the season. You are also choosing an entire squad of players and therefore the start of the season is when you are most likely to make bad decisions. Little wonder then that T0 is such a strong and popular option.

If you were to plot a line on a graph where the x-axis represents time from the start of GW1 till the end of the season, and the y-axis represents available information we would see a rise in information from a nadir at the start of GW1 to a zenith at the end of GW38 where all information that could possibly affect your FPL score is known.

This however is not a linear progression. The line is at it's steepest in the early GWs where information about new transfers, which players are starters, what formation the manager favours, which teams are in or out of form, etc. floods in. Metaphorically those first few GWs offer more opportunities to step in dogshit and seriously harm your FPL prospects than at any other point in the season. There are those that will see this as an opportunity to be daring and take risks to get an early lead but such are the pitfalls of this approach that most will end up in the gutter with a broken hip.

This is where the 1st wildcard differs from all the other chips. All the other chips increase complexity and therefore favour the better players, while the first wildcard (if used as T0) gives the players who have made mistakes a mulligan. The worse you have screwed up your initial selection the more valuable T0 is. If, however, you have made a brilliant starting selection and chosen a squad which will become the template after the first few GWs then T0 is worthless to you and you will have to find some other way to profit from your 1st wildcard.

The fact that T0 is so effective has encouraged managers to seek ways of exploiting it by deliberately planning to use their wildcard early. This may take the form of T4, T1, or T3.

I think T4 is workable given the right conditions. If there is a significant fixture shift that comes in around GW4 or later then you will not sacrifice information when playing your wildcard. Any earlier and I think the information cost is too high.The problem is the further in the future your T4 is planned the less likely it is to still be a good plan when the time arrives. The danger with an earlier T4 is that you (like everyone else) are planning a GW1 squad based on your information nadir. If this squad is highly biased towards certain teams with perceived good fixtures and it goes awry then it may concede even more points to the emerging template than a more balanced GW1 squad.

I write with a little experience in this matter as this has been my own favoured tactic in the past. I can't say that it has ever quite worked out as I hoped :( .

T1 is a creative and interesting option but not one I will be tempted to try myself. I am going to leave aside my various objections because the overriding problem is the obvious one. If you are utilising your BB in GW1 you are not only doing so at your information nadir but you will also be practically forced to employ your wildcard in GW2 while still having very little information. The surprise to me would be if it didn't backfire horribly in some way :o .

I also have a degree of contempt for T3. My issue here is not necessarily that the 1st international break is a bad time to use your wildcard (although it kind of is :P ) but again that you are planning to wildcard before you have sufficient information. That GW may be the best time for you to wildcard but how can you possibly know at this stage? :? You might love your team by the time T3 is due. If you say that if that is the case then you would not employ your wildcard then T3 is not a plan; it's an option.

Back to that information timeline I mentioned earlier. It isn't just GW by GW but day by day that the rate of information varies. The steepest gradients occur on days that a team actually plays in the PL, but you will also learn from non-PL matches, pressers, price change sites, injury alerts, interviews etc. not to mention sites like this one and FFS, or club fan forums.

Do not however confuse access to information with the correct exploitation of that information. On the last day of GW38 when all the matches have finished you will have all of the information about this FPL season. It will however by then be quite useless as there is no way you can apply that knowledge to gain an advantage over your rivals. So with the 1st wildcard there is always the question of when it is correct to activate it to take advantage of the information you currently have, or to wait in the hope that more information will help you make better decisions in the future.

It may be that you have enough information by GW2 to know that your initial squad selection was a dud and you need to activate your wildcard. You might be even more certain of this by GW4 but by then you have squandered too many points and budget and your rivals are out of range.

I do not believe that there is - or ever can be - a hard and fast, one size fits all solution to this dilemma. Everything depends on the state of your squad and the general FPL game ecosystem. This is the issue I have with the pre-planned 1st International Break Wildcard, or for that matter the idea that you should be aiming for a certain FPL score because it was the winning score in the past, or a pre-ordained PPM for your players.

I'd love to be able to offer clear advice such as "Don't shoot until you see the white's of their eyes!" but it does very much depend on whether you are hunting tigers or termites. :lol:

In Part III I will look at other 1st wildcard considerations 8-) .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Does 2 GWs give us enough information to know that we need to WC? If so, should we act on it? Or wait for 2 more GWs, just to be sure? Is the surety worth losing some points?

Sorry for the barrage of questions Suffice to say, what you wrote was thought-provoking.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 05:34 Does 2 GWs give us enough information to know that we need to WC? If so, should we act on it? Or wait for 2 more GWs, just to be sure? Is the surety worth losing some points?

Sorry for the barrage of questions Image Suffice to say, what you wrote was thought-provoking.

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Two GWs can be enough to know that you need to wildcard but it's not an ideal situation. If, for example, you have a couple of your first XI flagged, two more who you expected to start but have been benched, a couple (say BOU players) who have done ok so far but now have a couple of poor fixtures coming up, and another couple who have underperformed and are about to drop in price, then you are pretty much forced to T0 or face haemorrhaging even more points and budget.

Of course you would rather have more information as without it there is an increased chance that you will once again choose a poor squad but if you find yourself in such a situation you are unlikely to find a better use for your wildcard than a GW3 T0.

This is why I advocate a conservative ultra-flexible opening strategy. The risk/reward ratio at the beginning of any season disproportionately punishes failed punts.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Patrician »

dod wrote: 30 Jul 2019, 20:48 If you were to plot a line on a graph where the x-axis represents time from the start of GW1 till the end of the season, and the y-axis represents available information we would see a rise in information from a nadir at the start of GW1 to a zenith at the end of GW38 where all information that could possibly affect your FPL score is known.

This however is not a linear progression. The line is at it's steepest in the early GWs where information about new transfers, which players are starters, what formation the manager favours, which teams are in or out of form, etc. floods in.

...

Do not however confuse access to information with the correct exploitation of that information. On the last day of GW38 when all the matches have finished you will have all of the information about this FPL season. It will however by then be quite useless as there is no way you can apply that knowledge to gain an advantage over your rivals.
Indeed, I picture two lines. The first is "Available Information", which rises very rapidly during the first part of the season and then more slowly after that. The second line is the "Value of Information" which stays high in the same early part of the season, and then drops quickly before steadily approaching zero by the final kick-off. There is a sweet spot where both the value and availability of information is high, and I believe this is roughly GW4-8 (to give it a range). This is especially true for a student of underlying stats, because there is a lag between the information that underlying stats provides, and that same information becoming apparent in actual FPL points.

Here is my super scientific illustrative diagram... :D

WC Sweetspot.JPG
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

Super scientific or not, it is super important.

I picked a more than decent starting squad last season ... Jimenez, Boly, Mili, Salah, Mane, Coleman, Aguero, Fabs, AWB, VVD. I was ahead of the winner. And then I hit the GW zone you highlight and I failed to get the info let alone use it.

I am already seeing things I would have been tempted to do last year which I am discounting this season. And my quest for info is unprecedented...just need to learn its value asap.

I am almost wanting to suggest that not using WC1 in GW4-8 indicates poor play. More often than not.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Stemania »

Nice, thanks for that. Very similar views on it all to me, not much to disagree with. :D

That's the sort of graph I've always had in my head too, great to see someone actually draw one Patrician. :D

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

raoul wrote:Super scientific or not, it is super important.

I picked a more than decent starting squad last season ... Jimenez, Boly, Mili, Salah, Mane, Coleman, Aguero, Fabs, AWB, VVD. I was ahead of the winner. And then I hit the GW zone you highlight and I failed to get the info let alone use it.

I am already seeing things I would have been tempted to do last year which I am discounting this season. And my quest for info is unprecedented...just need to learn its value asap.

I am almost wanting to suggest that not using WC1 in GW4-8 indicates poor play. More often than not.
But if your starting squad was good, why would you WC? Wouldn't early WC itself be a bad strategy then?

Too much info can also be harmful. I understood this in the first season I came to know of all these online sites and price changes. Now, I'm trying to limit exposure so I can properly utilise the info I have.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 10:12
raoul wrote:Super scientific or not, it is super important.

I picked a more than decent starting squad last season ... Jimenez, Boly, Mili, Salah, Mane, Coleman, Aguero, Fabs, AWB, VVD. I was ahead of the winner. And then I hit the GW zone you highlight and I failed to get the info let alone use it.

I am already seeing things I would have been tempted to do last year which I am discounting this season. And my quest for info is unprecedented...just need to learn its value asap.

I am almost wanting to suggest that not using WC1 in GW4-8 indicates poor play. More often than not.
But if your starting squad was good, why would you WC? Wouldn't early WC itself be a bad strategy then?

Too much info can also be harmful. I understood this in the first season I came to know of all these online sites and price changes. Now, I'm trying to limit exposure so I can properly utilise the info I have.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Stemania »

I used mine in GW19 last year and did OK. It's very much a case of when you judge your individual team needs it and you feel you know enough to be able to guess the 'best team' going forward. There's no point changing a bad team for a slightly less bad team, even if it means keeping a bad team for an extra couple of weeks. Similarly, there's no point keeping a decent team if you're pretty sure you know a reliably good team. The only thing I'd say about GW4-10 (and I'd personally extend the window that far) is that that's the most likely time that a team (certainly my team) would 'need' it, if viewing it probabilistically before the season began.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

Coincidently I just posted in my RMT thing that I want to be able to play it when I want to, not have to.....

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Patrician wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 09:29
dod wrote: 30 Jul 2019, 20:48 If you were to plot a line on a graph where the x-axis represents time from the start of GW1 till the end of the season, and the y-axis represents available information we would see a rise in information from a nadir at the start of GW1 to a zenith at the end of GW38 where all information that could possibly affect your FPL score is known.

This however is not a linear progression. The line is at it's steepest in the early GWs where information about new transfers, which players are starters, what formation the manager favours, which teams are in or out of form, etc. floods in.

...

Do not however confuse access to information with the correct exploitation of that information. On the last day of GW38 when all the matches have finished you will have all of the information about this FPL season. It will however by then be quite useless as there is no way you can apply that knowledge to gain an advantage over your rivals.
Indeed, I picture two lines. The first is "Available Information", which rises very rapidly during the first part of the season and then more slowly after that. The second line is the "Value of Information" which stays high in the same early part of the season, and then drops quickly before steadily approaching zero by the final kick-off. There is a sweet spot where both the value and availability of information is high, and I believe this is roughly GW4-8 (to give it a range). This is especially true for a student of underlying stats, because there is a lag between the information that underlying stats provides, and that same information becoming apparent in actual FPL points.

Here is my super scientific illustrative diagram... :D


WC Sweetspot.JPG
Yeah ... that's the sort of thing I was too lazy and computer illiterate to draw :D .

Mine is slightly different but I'm not going to sweat the details as it's the principle that is important.

SirMattBugsby asks a pertinent question though -
But if your starting squad was good, why would you WC? Wouldn't early WC itself be a bad strategy then?
... and the answer is you wouldn't. You don't need to T0 in that situation because there is no 'jail' to get out of.

There is no possible use of the 1st wildcard that is better than T0 if you need to T0. It is implicit that if you need to T0 the excrement has already encountered the cooling apparatus with rotating blades.

It's quite simple really and I think we're all in general agreement here: If it's broke, fix it ASAP. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Patrician »

To add to that though, I think it is a good strategy to pick a starting squad optimised for the first 6 fixtures, with a view to wilcarding after into a more season long structure. You may not need to wildcard still, as perhaps a good chunk of the 6 week squad might also turn out to be part of the season squad (likely to be the case with Liverpool players for example). This way you are sort of semi-planning to wildcard during the period when the Wildcard value is highest.


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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Patrician wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 19:02 To add to that though, I think it is a good strategy to pick a starting squad optimised for the first 6 fixtures, with a view to wilcarding after into a more season long structure. You may not need to wildcard still, as perhaps a good chunk of the 6 week squad might also turn out to be part of the season squad (likely to be the case with Liverpool players for example). This way you are sort of semi-planning to wildcard during the period when the Wildcard value is highest.


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This is where I think we differ. Your position is pretty much exactly what I used to think and for that reason I am very glad you posted it. I'll cover how and why I have changed my mind when I get around to writing Part III.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Patrician »

Sounds insightful, looking forward to reading it!

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

Unfortunately I will be away (not incarcerated :P ) for the beginning of the season and unlikely to have internet access :( . This fact - along with recent injury doubts - means that I have had to abandon the team I had happily left virtually unchanged since my very 1st 15 minute draft.

My new team looks very strange. As I will not be able to act on any information from tomorrow night until sometime near the GW2 deadline I'm basically looking at trying to minimise the damage and get to GW3 with 2FTs and a lot of flexibility. I've left 2m ITB :shock: which I wouldn't have done otherwise. I think I'm going to need that 2m :lol: .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

The 1st Wildcard Part III

Once more for reference:

Type 0 - Get Out of Jail Free
Type 1 - Bench Boost
Type 2 - Team Value
Type 3 - 1st International Break
Type 4 - Fixture Shift
Type 5 - Festive Congestion


Please refer to the earlier post for explanations of each type. In this post I will just use T0, T1, T2, etc.

In my previous post on this topic I discussed the importance of information in determining when to play the 1st wildcard. While this is probably the dominant factor there are other considerations.

The first of these is team budget. Player price volatility is greatest in the early part of the FPL season as that is when the largest percentage of managers are active, Of course at the start of any season we do not know how volatile the player price algorithm will be but even so it is unlikely that a pure T2 is viable. Rather I would see T2 as possibly part of the reason for a T0.

Player price volatility is not the only factor that makes looking after your budget important in the early GWs. The fact that players all start at either x.0 or x.5 means that a drop of 0.1m is effectively a 0.5m loss of budget. There is also the fact that any budget loss or gain is far more relevant when it will affect your team for 30+ GWs than if there were only 10 GWs to go.

There is always a trade off between information and budget. Wait for the pressers and you may miss a price rise/drop. Make your transfer early and you may miss crucial information that would have altered your transfer decision if you had been aware of it. I have my own opinions as to what balance you should strike but it is outside the scope of this topic so I'll save them for a future post.

One of the reasons I do not like the pre-planned T3 is that IB GWs are poor for exploiting player price movement. In a normal GW there is usually a flurry of activity at the start as managers try to catch price changes followed by a hiatus until the pressers where new information may be available. Then you have another period of transfer activity. In most GWs there is in fact little change in information so managers acting during the hiatus may be willing to take a risk even after the initial transfer activity for fear of missing a price rise/drop. Therefore you may get quite a lot of price volatility to exploit. By contrast in an IB GW it is extremely risky to make early transfer decisions because there are still games to be played. This results in all the transfer activity being concertinaed into the last couple of days when the internationals are over. You are very unlikely to be able to buy and sell a double riser for a 0.1m profit and some of the risers you do bring in will massively overshoot their target resulting in both less chance of them rising again immediately and a reduced pool of non-owners who might buy them in the future. These players will then be at an increased risk of dropping in price quickly if they go out of favour.

So far both information and player price volatility point towards employing the 1st wildcard early as being the most efficient use of that chip, however there are 2 factors that argue against it:

The first is the implied cost of a T0. While there is no more profitable way of using your wildcard than as a T0 mulligan its effectiveness depends on you having a team you don't want. Generally that means that it has not been scoring well. The worse your team is the more effective the T0 can potentially be; but ask yourself this: would you rather have a team that has performed well and does not need to be wildcarded, or would you rather have a great wildcard that rescues your badly performing squad?

I hope the answer is obvious. The first team will have more points, a higher TV, and the wildcard still in reserve. This is why I stated in Part I that T0 isn't a plan but an option. You don't - or at least shouldn't :roll: - plan to fail. All T0's, no matter how successful they turn out to be, by definition follow failure.

What about T4? I have already discussed the problems with a late T4, but what about an early T4 such as the one Patrician suggested, which was to set up your team to maximise points over the first 6 GWs and then wildcard while still in the information and player price volatility sweet spot?

It's not a bad plan and it's one that was my own favoured option until recently. It might even be the best plan given the correct run of fixtures. I'm really not feeling it is there this season though. Only BUR, ARS, & NOR seem to start good runs around this time and how many players from those teams do you want?

My main opposition however is the second factor that argues against the early wildcard i.e. opportunity cost. This just means that once you play your wildcard you cannot use it again. I was going to equate this to cube ownership in backgammon until I realised that I am already using the best analogy (clue: It's Monopoly related :lol: ).

There is value in simply having access to the 1st wildcard even if you never use it :shock: . Of course you already know this. Those managers planning on maximising their points potential for the first few GWs are doing so with the knowledge that if it all goes pear shaped they have the safety net of the 1st wildcard to fall back on. For however long you hang on to your wildcard you have the T0 option to get out of any mess you have gotten yourself in to. This means that you can make aggressive plays that may potentially be very profitable but have too much of a potential downside for managers who have already spent their wildcard.

There are no prizes for the best use of the 1st wildcard and if there were you wouldn't want to win one :lol: . For you to have a great wildcard you first need to be unhappy with your squad and so from the point of view of winning FPL you should prefer to never need to use your wildcard at all! :shock:

Think of it this way. If you reach the final GW where you can still use your 1st wildcard without ever having found the need to use it and still have nothing you want to do then it would be best to just let your wildcard expire and carry over a FT to the next GW. In this scenario you haven't wasted your wildcard but made full use of its benefits as an insurance policy against disaster. You are probably also looking at a very good rank :D . This isn't some strange hypothetical scenario that would never happen in real life. You only have to go back to the FPL winner from the season before last to find an example of someone who did not ever use his 1st wildcard.

The one wildcard plan we have yet to examine is T5. Unlike a late T4 we can be pretty confident that once we reach the festive congestion period we will probably like to restructure our squad and spend a bit more budget on the bench. I don't think this is sufficient reason to actively plan to hold on to our wildcard but it could be a pleasant bonus if we do manage to reach this point with the chip still being available. There is also the final GW of the 1st half of the season wildcard which I don't think needs explaining.

One final piece of advice: always consider if you should be wildcarding every GW. Studies of top game players have repeatedly shown that their biggest mistakes occur not when choosing between a number of possible options but rather in not recognising that the correct play was even an option at all :o .

TL;DR - The most efficient use of the 1st wildcard is to fix a team that is no longer fit for purpose. It is a bad idea to wildcard before GW4 and after about GW8 the value of using the wildcard begins to decrease. If you need to fix your team just use your wildcard rather than take loads of hits in the hope that you will be able to use it more efficiently later.

Ideally you would prefer never to need to wildcard because your team is never broken. There is a hidden value in having access to a wildcard even if you never use it.

Whatever Frank Marshall and Gary Kasparov might say I don't believe that the best approach for the 1st wildcard is to have a preset plan. FPL isn't chess 8-) .

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

In answer to one of your questions, I would rather have a team that has performed well for 2-4 weeks, but that I can see is about to nosedive.

That would seem the perfect wildcard, right? Extract maximum value from a few weeks and then ease into the longer team season plan.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by blahblah »

But we don't know "has".....

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

dod wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 13:48 I have my own opinions as to what balance you should strike but it is outside the scope of this topic so I'll save them for a future post.
You're sounding a lot like Robert "that's outside my purview" Mueller. :wink:

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

raoul wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 14:47 In answer to one of your questions, I would rather have a team that has performed well for 2-4 weeks, but that I can see is about to nosedive.

That would seem the perfect wildcard, right? Extract maximum value from a few weeks and then ease into the longer team season plan.
You are describing the early T4 which is covered above.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Just read this. Lol what :lol: :lol:
dod wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 18:23 There is no possible use of the 1st wildcard that is better than T0 if you need to T0. It is implicit that if you need to T0 the excrement has already encountered the cooling apparatus with rotating blades.



raoul wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 14:47 In answer to one of your questions, I would rather have a team that has performed well for 2-4 weeks, but that I can see is about to nosedive.

That would seem the perfect wildcard, right? Extract maximum value from a few weeks and then ease into the longer team season plan.
I myself have used 1st WCs in the first 3-5 GWs since.. always. I usually need it too, but if I did have a team that could do equally well in the short and long-term, that would be the ideal scenario, no?

I feel it's possible to make such a team. We do have basic info/idea such as who will probably be the best two teams in the league, fixture runs, preseason lineups, likely player positions etc.

This was valid in my case while debating whether to have both Salah and Sterling or HOHO. Now, because I have a WC, I decide that I won't be captaining Sterling and so, wouldn't bring him in till GW 3-6. But if I'm going to do it then, why not do it now? It's not like already-present info regarding Sterling and Man City is likely to change.. in fact, we know Sterling is unpredictable, scored best against middling defences last season, likely to be the highest points scorer of the best attack in the league and has had a successful pre-season.

I also feel the early GWs give some erroneous long-term info. Promoted teams bounce, even the best backlines (eg. Liverpool) giving some silly goals before settling down, Leicester build-up taking time to get into rhythm and start creating chances.. these things might start changing right as we WC. So if we make a team with the long-term in mind (and not over-emphasize on first 3 GWs), that would bring us to that ideal scenario.

Guess what I'm trying to say is, I'll WC early only if I need to. As long as I have ready spots for bandwagons (flexibility) and my long term choices are working, there shouldn't be be any more need than a mini-WC? That's the aim anyway.

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raoul
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

dod wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 15:57
raoul wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 14:47 In answer to one of your questions, I would rather have a team that has performed well for 2-4 weeks, but that I can see is about to nosedive.

That would seem the perfect wildcard, right? Extract maximum value from a few weeks and then ease into the longer team season plan.
You are describing the early T4 which is covered above.
Well that wasn't my intention. Not talking fixture shift. Talking about picking a form team in week 1, then accurately realising the moment it is about to crash.

So ... I think 5 atb is best for the season. But I also believe I can see more players hitting the ground running in forward positions not defence. So I start 343 to extract my perception of short term points, then WC when I predict Richarlison loses interest, the Man Utd feel good disappears again, Murray will need a nap etc.

Maybe fixture shift is deemed a more generic term than I am giving it credit for ...

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raoul
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 17:50 Just read this. Lol what :lol: :lol:
dod wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 18:23 There is no possible use of the 1st wildcard that is better than T0 if you need to T0. It is implicit that if you need to T0 the excrement has already encountered the cooling apparatus with rotating blades.



raoul wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 14:47 In answer to one of your questions, I would rather have a team that has performed well for 2-4 weeks, but that I can see is about to nosedive.

That would seem the perfect wildcard, right? Extract maximum value from a few weeks and then ease into the longer team season plan.
I myself have used 1st WCs in the first 3-5 GWs since.. always. I usually need it too, but if I did have a team that could do equally well in the short and long-term, that would be the ideal scenario, no?

I feel it's possible to make such a team. We do have basic info/idea such as who will probably be the best two teams in the league, fixture runs, preseason lineups, likely player positions etc.

This was valid in my case while debating whether to have both Salah and Sterling or HOHO. Now, because I have a WC, I decide that I won't be captaining Sterling and so, wouldn't bring him in till GW 3-6. But if I'm going to do it then, why not do it now? It's not like already-present info regarding Sterling and Man City is likely to change.. in fact, we know Sterling is unpredictable, scored best against middling defences last season, likely to be the highest points scorer of the best attack in the league and has had a successful pre-season.

I also feel the early GWs give some erroneous long-term info. Promoted teams bounce, even the best backlines (eg. Liverpool) giving some silly goals before settling down, Leicester build-up taking time to get into rhythm and start creating chances.. these things might start changing right as we WC. So if we make a team with the long-term in mind (and not over-emphasize on first 3 GWs), that would bring us to that ideal scenario.

Guess what I'm trying to say is, I'll WC early only if I need to. As long as I have ready spots for bandwagons (flexibility) and my long term choices are working, there shouldn't be be any more need than a mini-WC? That's the aim anyway.
Aspects of this tie in with what I was getting at.

Landscape shift ... maybe that's my term?

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SirMattBugsby
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

I agree that there is a landscape shift. Difference lies in how we approach it:

1) use the WC or
2) manage with transfers to fulfill long-term goals.

The second approach is admittedly more passive. It risks falling behind early if patience doesn't pay off, after which one might end up WCing anyway.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by No Way Jose »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 17:50 Just read this. Lol what :lol: :lol:
dod wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 18:23 There is no possible use of the 1st wildcard that is better than T0 if you need to T0. It is implicit that if you need to T0 the excrement has already encountered the cooling apparatus with rotating blades.


The shit hath hit the proverbial fan :lol:

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby »

No Way Jose wrote:
SirMattBugsby wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 17:50 Just read this. Lol what Image Image
dod wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 18:23 There is no possible use of the 1st wildcard that is better than T0 if you need to T0. It is implicit that if you need to T0 the excrement has already encountered the cooling apparatus with rotating blades.


The shit hath hit the proverbial fan Image
Haha yup. Dod was in a real analytical mood there Image

Sent from my Lenovo K33a42 using Tapatalk

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raoul
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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by raoul »

SirMattBugsby wrote: 06 Aug 2019, 04:40
No Way Jose wrote:
SirMattBugsby wrote: 05 Aug 2019, 17:50 Just read this. Lol what Image Image
dod wrote: 31 Jul 2019, 18:23 There is no possible use of the 1st wildcard that is better than T0 if you need to T0. It is implicit that if you need to T0 the excrement has already encountered the cooling apparatus with rotating blades.


The shit hath hit the proverbial fan Image
Haha yup. Dod was in a real analytical mood there Image

Sent from my Lenovo K33a42 using Tapatalk
just as well his fan is not a Dyson, or it would take a lot more words to explain what exactly the brown stuff was hitting.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by dod »

I am yet to see my GW1 score as the car I was in went over a cliff outside of Dubrovnik. Rolled a few times but luckily got wedged in a tree just before a 200m drop. That probably wouldn't have gone that well.

My wife broke her neck and I broke my back but not paralysed so hopefully back in the uk soon. Might even be out of hospital in time for GW3.

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Re: Dod's Blog

Post by DAREEL »

dod wrote: 14 Aug 2019, 18:37 I am yet to see my GW1 score as the car I was in went over a cliff outside of Dubrovnik. Rolled a few times but luckily got wedged in a tree just before a 200m drop. That probably wouldn't have gone that well.

My wife broke her neck and I broke my back but not paralysed so hopefully back in the uk soon. Might even be out of hospital in time for GW3.
Really sorry to hear that. That is just awful. All the best to you both. One of them lucky but not lucky situations and I'm glad you are both ok

Hope to see you back posting your excellent advice soon

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