FPL's Likely Champion - What Should We Learn?

[raoul]

He is 68pts clear with 2 weeks left. He might not win. But he probably will.

Has anyone looked at his season?

I have had a quick scan and noted his use of DSilva who kept getting auto-subbed out - is this a player who either plays or does not, with cameos unlikely?

If so, interesting tactic.

[blahblah]

If ONZ copies his squad he'll have no chance

[Ruth_NZ]

At first sight, he's a classic FFS clone. His chip deployment has been pretty much FFS standard template; WC16, TC25, FH32, WC34, BB35. Only the late first wildcard may be unusual there but seeing that his team was doing so well he just didn't need it earlier, having been well established in the top 1k since GW11.

It is probably worth looking at his key gameweeks, the ones where he had a top 100k GW rank. Those are the big jumps.

The first was GW2, a 66k GWR. His team was a fairly standard mixture, nothing unusual about it, but he captained Kun who was, in fact, the highest scorer of the week. 40 points from Kun, 99 overall and up to 80k. Interesting to note that his transfer was Costa Neves, who he benched. So we know that he either doesn't know a good bandwagon from a bad one or that he chases TV.

The next was GW5, an 11k GWR. The key thing that led to this was his GW4 Salah Hazard switch, just in time for Hazard's run of 4 hauls in 5 weeks. Nothing that unusual about that either, I remember FFS talking about Hazard's amazing stats (and Patrician too) and some managers made that kind of move, I seem to remember Stemania did so, as did I as it happens. But Hazard was still quite low-owned in GW5 and his 20 points made a big difference for those that had him that week. I guess you can give him credit for not being stuck in a 2017/18 view of Salah and realising that at 13m he wasn't a necessary option.

The other thing he did right in GW5 was to keep Fraser. That was the week that Fraser was supposedly a serious doubt and Howe gave a misleading press conference - I remember it well because I swerved Fraser having been set on bringing him in. But this manager already had him and maybe it was easier if you did. That was another 18 points into the pot and up to 3k in the OR.

Next one was GW11, a 48k GWR that propelled him into the top 1k, having pretty much trodden water over the intervening weeks. One of the key things here was his transfer in of Sterling in GW7 because in GW11, Sterling delivered a 21-pointer. Mané had been the player removed, so for the second time in the season he had switched between premium players and timed it pretty perfectly. Nothing startling about the rest of the team other than the continued presence of D Silva, who was chipping in with regular returns.

It is worth noting that the strong GW5 and GW11 saw him gain around 40-50 points on the average score each time. They weren't high-scoring weeks but he managed 90+ both times because he had the right combination of players.

He followed up the big GW11 with another big one in GW12 for a 25k GWR, taking him to 270 in the OR. Liverpool had a juicy home fixture against Ranieri's dire Fulham and he had no Salah and no Mané. But he had added Robertson to TAA in GW10 and rather than getting a Liverpool attacker back he captained Robertson. Fortunately for him, Robertson was the 2nd-highest scorer that week with 12 points (only Foyth, who no-one had, was better). Mané blanked and Salah had an 8-pointer so the Robertson 24 points together with good returns from TAA, Alonso and Silva once again gave him a fairly big score in a low-scoring week. He hasn't really looked back since then.

Captaining Robertson and resisting the urge to get Salah or Mané was brave, though arguably he didn't have an easy route to either with Hazard and Sterling in such good form at the time. It could have gone very badly for him that week but as it happened it went very well.

Once again, having had two great weeks in succession, he then trod water, and this time for a long period, all the way to GW25. That is what a template-based team will do for you, it will generally tend to hold position as long as the template performs modestly well. But to get the big weeks thrown in you have to be bang on with key player changes and opportunities and that is what ensued in GW25.

So, GW25 was all about the City DGW. He brought in Laporte and brought back Aguero (having had Aubameyang for a while), triple-captained Kun and hey, presto! 126 points (88 of which came from the 3 City players) and a GWR of 6k. That took him up to 17th overall and further big weeks in GW27 and GW29 (36k & 41k GWR) took him to 1st place, where he has been ever since. GW27 was an extremely low-scoring week overall but he had 23 points from Deulofeu, who he had since GW19. I think one characteristic of this manager is that he has been reluctant to chase mirages and has given his decisions time to play out. That certainly paid off with Deulofeu in GW27 anyway.

GW29 was just a good combination in a low-scoring week, though his acquisition of Vardy at the beginning of his Brendan Rodgers scoring run showed he was paying attention. This further paid off in GW33, another sub-100k GWR with Vardy's 16-pointer captain, at which time he was starting to build a lead. And then in GW35 he nailed the BB with 27 points (though -8 so 19 net) and more importantly had many key assets in his team. 117 points (109 net) and a GWR of 36k.

That's it really. I don't see a single player he has brought in all season that was a surprise or wasn't being widely discussed on FFS and elsewhere. He has managed to time key switches right and looks to have run pretty hot on captaincy. He has been patient and let his decisions play out (only 4 hits all season). He has performed very competently and consistently but seeing that his last 4 seasons are all in the 10k-70k range he has probably done so before. It think this season he has just hit the bullseye pretty often with his timings and had a lot of 50/50s fall his way.

What there is to learn from this depends on your point of view. If you want to get a fairly secure finish in the top 1% of teams then play like this guy I'd say. But the odds of you winning are about 20,000/1. I think this has just been his year.

[Oxford NZ]

If ONZ copies his squad he'll have no chance

[Valeron]

Most of the players who have won a season are average at best, look at their career records, and as such it's a waste of time analysing their season. To win you need a ton of randomness to go your way in 38 GWs, all the 50-50 calls etc. There's nothing useful to learn from that.

A total waste of time and you're far better off listening to strategic ideas from guys who consistently finish high up the rankings.

[Jay P]

Most of the players who have won a season are average at best, look at their career records, and as such it's a waste of time analysing their season. To win you need a ton of randomness to go your way in 38 GWs, all the 50-50 calls etc. There's nothing useful to learn from that.

A total waste of time and you're far better off listening to strategic ideas from guys who consistently finish high up the rankings.

Agree, the most important thing to learn from the overall #1: get your transfers perfectly right, ever one, good luck.

[Ruth_NZ]

...and yet strangely enough I have learned some useful things from making the above analysis.

You shouldn't assume that everyone wants the same thing, Valeron. I reckon I could learn some interesting stuff from analysing the season of someone that is currently at 500k in the OR as well. It's all about broadening your understanding of how the game works.

[Ruth_NZ]

...the most important thing to learn from the overall #1: get your transfers perfectly right, every one, good luck.

But actually he hasn't, that's one of the interesting things about it. He has got the key ones right and making the analysis therefore steers me towards understanding what matters more and what matters less. For example, what if the season comes down to - I don't know - 8 decisions? What if the rest of what you do matters much less? Wouldn't that be an interesting perspective to have? We tend to think that every transfer, every captaincy decision has equal weight but making this analysis is making me wonder if that is actually true. It looks so from inside looking out (our perspective week-by-week) but maybe it looks different from outside-in (what decisions actually made a significant difference).

I am actually tempted to take a second look at his season and to survey what didn't go well and how much difference it made because there is possibly a hierarchy of influence (meaning a graduated effect from the decisions we make) that I had hitherto not really seen in that way.

I find it interesting enough, anyway. But I don't think my aims are necessarily the same as others have.

[Aldershot Rejects]

...the most important thing to learn from the overall #1: get your transfers perfectly right, every one, good luck.

But actually he hasn't, that's one of the interesting things about it. He has got the key ones right and making the analysis therefore steers me towards understanding what matters more and what matters less. For example, what if the season comes down to - I don't know - 8 decisions? What if the rest of what you do matters much less? Wouldn't that be an interesting perspective to have? We tend to think that every transfer, every captaincy decision has equal weight but making this analysis is making me wonder if that is actually true. It looks so from inside looking out (our perspective week-by-week) but maybe it looks different from outside-in (what decisions actually made a significant difference).

I am actually tempted to take a second look at his season and to survey what didn't go well and how much difference it made because there is possibly a hierarchy of influence (meaning a graduated effect from the decisions we make) that I had hitherto not really seen in that way.

I find it interesting enough, anyway. But I don't think my aims are necessarily the same as others have.

Thanks for your analysis Ruth, I actually found it really interesting. I suspect there is actually a lot to learn here and as you suggest I suspect that not every decision has equal weight (although it probably is not always possible to identify ahead of time which are the decisions which in retrospect turn out to be key). I suspect the utilisation of sub £10m attackers is another one - I, for one, probably have insufficient patience with this group and so miss out on the really big weeks - I think it might be interesting to see what percentage of a player's points come from their best 3-5 GWs. The scoring patterns of individual players over a season is not something that I have given sufficient weight to.

[Jay P]

I may have exaggerated and overly simplified the potential lessons to be learned (or lack of). I suspect it’s comparable to winnng a poker tournament; all you can do is make the best decisions you can with the information available, sometimes they’ll go your way, sometimes they won’t. If you get more going your way than anyone else, you’re on top.

That’s not to say there isn’t value in analysing someone’s decisions, I just question if there’s more value in analysing this guy’s decisions over any other good player’s decisions... just seems entirely results oriented, and there’s potential to slip into some biased thinking; which may be counterproductive.

[Patrician]

If you are going to spend the time analysing another teams season, you might as well choose the winner, haha


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[Stemania]

Well done in advance Mr Levy, wherever you are. Assuming he does get across the line I'm sure/hope there'll be a few interview articles (specifically on FFS, but maybe BBC nowadays too), so best to look out for that I would suppose.

Looks like another (potential) winner who on reflection appears to have just relentlessly made unspectacular, yet sensible, decisions all year - with a good captain average thrown in. Funny that.

As per FPL Statistico, the players he's owned for the most games this season have been:

Robertson, Fabianski, Alexander-Arnold, Sterling, Salah, Jiménez, Agüero, Wan-Bissaka, Doherty, David Silva, Hazard, Wilson, Arnautovic (24-13 games descending). Plus the likes of Kane, Laporte, Vardy for some opportune times (6 games each).

[Finisher1]

He has definitely signed some necessary players to strengthen his squad, unlike another Mr Levy.

[TheRumourMill]

Great summary Ruth, really enjoyed reading that overview.

From FPL Review's season review tool, it does indeed appear to back up Ruth's conclusion that this is a competent manager who has made few mistakes and been fortunate enough to have this backed up by luck going his way.

FPL points: 2548
xG xpts: 2405
Bookmaker odds xpts: 2239
"Fair" pts (defined as the Average of xG and Odds xpts): 2322
Luck (defined as the difference between "fair" xpts and actual pts): 226

He seems to have successfully "beaten the bookies", and spotted trends in players early (whether that be through watching them, underlying stats or something else, hopefully this will be revealed in an interview post season), before they do. If we can credit him with skill in that part of the game, I think he's running exceptionally hot on his points conversion with an extra 143 points over what expected goals models predict. This is the luck element to me.

Ruth focussed on the good gameweeks, but just as important from my point of view (and natural pessimistic attitude! ) is the complete absence of disaster on his scorecard. No gameweek ranks below 3.5 million has made it pretty difficult to fall too far in the rankings. The template players he has acting as a bit of a safety net.

He's played 3-4-3 on the majority of occasions, which has suited the shape of this season. I think he's got a lot of joy out of attacking double and treble ups - King, Wilson and Fraser in the early season, Sterling and Aguero from GW7 to 15, United attack round xmas, Liverpool defensive double up all season. This is probably something to take into next season.

[Stemania]

Woah, that's a great site/tool TRM!

Perhaps they should do an expected points league table. Expected Top10k the real gold standard?!

[Ruth_NZ]

Thanks for your analysis Ruth, I actually found it really interesting. I suspect there is actually a lot to learn here and as you suggest I suspect that not every decision has equal weight (although it probably is not always possible to identify ahead of time which are the decisions which in retrospect turn out to be key)...
I think it might be interesting to see what percentage of a player's points come from their best 3-5 GWs. The scoring patterns of individual players over a season is not something that I have given sufficient weight to.

Yes, agreed. That question about what decisions matter more than others is an interesting one to reflect upon. This season it seems to have been about switching between premium assets in a timely way but is it always so? Certainly, for me, there is a thought that I perhaps try too hard to engineer swing opportunities rather than awaiting them but there's a fine line there too. I do think I have allowed my planning perspective to become too vague (sometimes too short and other times too long) and am beginning to think that 4-6 weeks is about the right horizon to focus on.

The comment about scoring patterns bears scrutiny as well and would be an interesting survey to make.

Looks like another (potential) winner who on reflection appears to have just relentlessly made unspectacular, yet sensible, decisions all year - with a good captain average thrown in. Funny that.

Not funny really because a lot of the more successful managers (as measured by the so-called HOF) play that way and it is certainly the thrust of conventional wisdom on FFS, for example. If there are 20,000 teams managed that way (say) by the more competent and committed managers in FPL then the likelihood is that someone playing that way will win most seasons. But that doesn't make it particularly likely that it will be you. That's why I used the 20,000/1 number.

An old man was stopped by the police after depositing a number of small piles of yellow sand in Trafalgar Square. "Why are you dropping this sand around?", asked the policeman. "To keep the elephants away". "But there are no elephants in Trafalgar Square", said the policeman. "Yes, that's because it works!", replied the old man.

I remember having an argument with Triggerlips back when I started FPL. He said that 3-4-3 was 'best by test' and pointed out that the big majority of top 1k managers used it (with 3-5-2 as an occasional variation). I pointed out that many more 'serious' managers used 3-4-3 than any other formation and that nothing else had been equivalently tested. Therefore it was no surprise (and no evidence) that 3-4-3 teams tended to occupy most of the leading positions. This is the same kind of argument really.

I don't think anyone would deny that there are elements of skill and of luck in FPL. My idea is that to play in the way you describe (relentlessly sensible) means you require a lot of luck in order to win because there are 20,000 others doing the same thing and approaching things in basically the same way. That's the 'template'; it will pretty much secure you a finish in the top 1% (if you are very competent, as you are, then maybe the top 20k) but if will require you to have a season when you run as hot as mustard if you are to win.

My aim in FPL has always been (and will always be for as long as I play the game) to beat the template. To gain skill and understanding of the game that others don't have (or don't use) and to beat them through that. If you can do it (can you?) then it should mean you need less luck to win because you are just playing the game at a higher level than most everyone else. The consequence of this, though, is that if you go wrong (or get it wrong) and under-perform the template then you are going to suffer terribly in the OR as a consequence. Like the guy in a bicycle race that falls off his bike and by the time he has dusted himself down and remounted has seen the whole peloton go cruising by.

It depends what you want and what you are trying to achieve.

[Tall Paul]

An old man was stopped by the police after depositing a number of small piles of yellow sand in Trafalgar Square. "Why are you dropping this sand around?", asked the policeman. "To keep the elephants away". "But there are no elephants in Trafalgar Square", said the policeman. "Yes, that's because it works!", replied the old man.

I like the Simpsons' version better

[RomynPG]

You shouldn't assume that everyone wants the same thing, Valeron. I reckon I could learn some interesting stuff from analysing the season of someone that is currently at 500k in the OR as well. It's all about broadening your understanding of how the game works.

God forbid anyone taking the time to put together a detailed post related to fantasy football and posting it in a relevant thread on a fantasy football forum

[Joccki_10]

An old man was stopped by the police after depositing a number of small piles of yellow sand in Trafalgar Square. "Why are you dropping this sand around?", asked the policeman. "To keep the elephants away". "But there are no elephants in Trafalgar Square", said the policeman. "Yes, that's because it works!", replied the old man.

I like the Simpsons' version better

“So, what do you do for a living?”

“I hunt and kill aliens.”

“What?! Aliens aren’t real!”

“Have you ever seen one?”

“No..”

“You’re welcome.”

[Stemania]

Neally correct J_10. Now fixed for the sake of the thread.

"So, what do you do for a living?”

“I generically label and shame managers who just follow the template. Not based on evidence, since I've never heard them speak, but it sure provides a great false narrative via which I can artificially inflate the my viewpoint. Plus it makes me feel better about my own decisions.”

“What?! 'The template' isn’t actually a real thing, never mind managers who simply follow it!”

“Have you ever seen one?”

“No..”

“You’re welcome.”

[Smurphy Paw]

Whilst that’s a bit naughty... just think what score someone like Stem could achieve if only he’d seek competitive advantage!

[Smurphy Paw]

For example, what if the season comes down to - I don't know - 8 decisions? What if the rest of what you do matters much less? Wouldn't that be an interesting perspective to have? We tend to think that every transfer, every captaincy decision has equal weight but making this analysis is making me wonder if that is actually true. It looks so from inside looking out (our perspective week-by-week) but maybe it looks different from outside-in (what decisions actually made a significant difference).

I am actually tempted to take a second look at his season and to survey what didn't go well and how much difference it made because there is possibly a hierarchy of influence (meaning a graduated effect from the decisions we make) that I had hitherto not really seen in that way.

I find it interesting enough, anyway. But I don't think my aims are necessarily the same as others have.

This does interest me
Although a pet hate is the, ‘this crucial decision between my two mediocre goal keepers for this one game week will make or break my season’ type of posts. Before the fact they typically convey a different message to the one intended

[dino1980]

That's it really. I don't see a single player he has brought in all season that was a surprise or wasn't being widely discussed on FFS and elsewhere. He has managed to time key switches right and looks to have run pretty hot on captaincy. He has been patient and let his decisions play out (only 4 hits all season). He has performed very competently and consistently but seeing that his last 4 seasons are all in the 10k-70k range he has probably done so before. It think this season he has just hit the bullseye pretty often with his timings and had a lot of 50/50s fall his way.

What there is to learn from this depends on your point of view. If you want to get a fairly secure finish in the top 1% of teams then play like this guy I'd say. But the odds of you winning are about 20,000/1. I think this has just been his year.

To be fair to him Ruth, on his GW34 WC, he bought in both Siggy and DCL because Everton had Fulham away in GW34, I don't think either Everton player were mentioned at all on FFS or FISO for those going for the GW34 WC/GW35 BB combo. As it happens both blanked in 34 and he sold then in 35 before both returned against United. He also only went with single Brighton defence and held both Salah and Wilson, neither of whom were template, FFS or otherwise. I think his later wildcard was very brave given his position.

[Patrician]

Doing a quick scan, here is a benefit of hindsight list of key decisions, that I think were somewhat predictable. When analysing my own season, I took advantage of a few of these, and lost out on a lot of points with the ones I missed. I am especially disappointed about missing most of the early Wilson/Fraser points (20ish points), Salah 16-18 (50ish), the Son run (40ish) , and the Vardy Bounce (20ish). Thats about 130 points which would have me in or around the top 100. I am disappointed because in all those cases I went through the thought process but prioritised some other decision.


New Manager Bounces

Pogba - GW18-26 (especially 18-20) HIT
Vardy - GW28-36 MISSED

Easy Fixture Runs

Son - GW13 to 25 (especially 16-21) MISSED
Aguero - GW2-11 HIT
Salah - GW 9-23 MISSED
Auba - GW6-24 MISSED
Anderson GW11-19 MISSED
Wilson/Fraser - GW1-15 MISSED and GW30-36 HIT

Double Gameweek Exploit

Aguero GW23-32 HIT

Identify early and keep (key enablers)

Hazard, especially GW3-8, GW16-19, GW30-33 (best value premium I think, and fixture proof ) HIT
Jimenez MISSED
W-B HIT
TAA when fit HIT
Doherty HIT

[Ruth_NZ]

Ooh, that's a bit sharp, Stemania. I must have touched a nerve.

I didn't invent the term 'template'. It is used on FFS all the time, in posts, in editorial content, in video content. It is generally considered a good thing so I don't see how I could shame anyone with it really. You used the words "relentlessly sensible" and I haven't really disputed them because they are roughly in the area of what I mean anyway. So I even accepted your definition. But you are going to get into some pretty tortuous arguments if you want to claim that it doesn't exist.

Template (or relentlessly sensible) play is a mindset and an approach to the game as far as I am concerned. It often involves minimising risk, it takes good regard of things like ownership levels and captaincy polls and tends to await evidence rather than making surmises. I'm not saying that every 'template' manager is a copycat - some are but the better ones are not - but nevertheless when you look at the game there are a whole host of managers making similar decisions in a similar space. They tend to deploy their chips in similar ways and they tend to stick to the same, small pool of players too. You might well say that's because that is the simple obvious way to optimise your results. Fair enough, I won't argue and I know that's how it appears to you.

To me, however, that big group is a target. They do make mistakes and their thinking does contain errors. So I'm not interested in emulating them (or that approach) but in beating it. Is that so hard to comprehend? But 'labelling and shaming' you? I mean, really, my team is 120k or something right now. I haven't got a leg to stand on if I imply that I am better at FPL than you. If anyone would be labelled and shamed by the comparison it would be me, wouldn't it?

[Ruth_NZ]

That's it really. I don't see a single player he has brought in all season that was a surprise or wasn't being widely discussed on FFS and elsewhere. He has managed to time key switches right and looks to have run pretty hot on captaincy. He has been patient and let his decisions play out (only 4 hits all season). He has performed very competently and consistently but seeing that his last 4 seasons are all in the 10k-70k range he has probably done so before. It think this season he has just hit the bullseye pretty often with his timings and had a lot of 50/50s fall his way.

What there is to learn from this depends on your point of view. If you want to get a fairly secure finish in the top 1% of teams then play like this guy I'd say. But the odds of you winning are about 20,000/1. I think this has just been his year.

To be fair to him Ruth, on his GW34 WC, he bought in both Siggy and DCL because Everton had Fulham away in GW34, I don't think either Everton player were mentioned at all on FFS or FISO for those going for the GW34 WC/GW35 BB combo. As it happens both blanked in 34 and he sold then in 35 before both returned against United. He also only went with single Brighton defence and held both Salah and Wilson, neither of whom were template, FFS or otherwise. I think his later wildcard was very brave given his position.

Fair enough, what I wrote there was based on a fairly quick scan of his transfers in and out over the season. The only weeks I looked more closely at were the ones with a sub-100k GWR. It probably was a somewhat brave 2nd wildcard, though you could also say that it was a quite conservative one. Salah had Cardiff in GW35, didn't he? And then Huddersfield in GW36. So keeping him rather than having to use a transfer on him in GW36 would just be a pragmatic solution I'd have thought and I imagine many did the same.

[Valeron]

...and yet strangely enough I have learned some useful things from making the above analysis.

You shouldn't assume that everyone wants the same thing, Valeron. I reckon I could learn some interesting stuff from analysing the season of someone that is currently at 500k in the OR as well. It's all about broadening your understanding of how the game works.

I think everyone wants as many points as possible, can't see what else anyone would be aiming for.

It's utterly pointless retrospectively analysing the season of an overall average player who happens to be sitting at #1 in any given season due to a truckload of randomness going their way. It'd be basically saying to yourself 'OK i'm going to be lucky this season, get almost all the 50-50 calls right'.

[Ruth_NZ]

You think I can't see where the luck is?

Where you are going wrong is in the assumption that an analysis such as this is made with the purpose of copying something about what the guy did. It isn't. It is done with the purpose of understanding what happened and why. That helps me to form a better understanding about the game and the better I understand it, the better I can develop my own approach to it.

It is odd, and sad, how some people seem to be offended or outraged by that.

[raoul]

...and yet strangely enough I have learned some useful things from making the above analysis.

You shouldn't assume that everyone wants the same thing, Valeron. I reckon I could learn some interesting stuff from analysing the season of someone that is currently at 500k in the OR as well. It's all about broadening your understanding of how the game works.

feel free to analyse mine!! (not quite 500k but...)

[raoul]

You think I can't see where the luck is?

Where you are going wrong is in the assumption that an analysis such as this is made with the purpose of copying something about what the guy did. It isn't. It is done with the purpose of understanding what happened and why. That helps me to form a better understanding about the game and the better I understand it, the better I can develop my own approach to it.

It is odd, and sad, how some people seem to be offended or outraged by that.

Exactly the point of starting the thread. Maybe some feel they already know all there is to know about this game.

I prefer Dod's view as being closer to the truth.