Almost all the 65 are ERG members (maybe a handful at most aren't), the five who abstained I'm not so sure about. A long extension is nigh on a certainty if the ERG don't fall into line as it's what the EU will likely ask for - it could also be on very punitive terms, there will only really be a short extension if the deal is passed.David Luiz Is A Hero wrote: ↑15 Mar 2019, 14:07It wouldn't be the first time...
I honestly don't think the vote has changed much other than No Deal will almost certainly not happen this month but if there is a short extension and we don't get our shit together (no indication that we will so far) then it is very much the default option again
If the 20 or so really vehemently opposed brexiteers do vote against the deal they are effectively voting for a long extension with European elections and the very probable risk of no brexit at all. If they prefer that to May's deal then you can see their logic.
There is a possibility that if it isn't passed and a very long and financially punitive extension after European elections is offered, the only one the EU may give, then she'll attempt to bring it back a fourth time after the summit. If it is then apparent it would almost certainly succeed, although it would have to be shown to be highly probable for it to be allowed - perhaps in public statements of support from those 20, then this could be a real possibility.