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EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance] - Poll: Will we leave???

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Will the UK leave on Halloween?

Poll runs till 16 Sep 2019, 08:56

Yes with the May deal
1
4%
Yes with a Boris deal
2
8%
Yes with no deal
5
21%
No there will be a further extension
11
46%
No Article 50 will be revoked
5
21%
 
Total votes: 24

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by liquidfootball2 » 15 Mar 2019, 15:04

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 14:07
eastcentral1 wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 13:39
Why would May ignore Parliament?
It wouldn't be the first time...

I honestly don't think the vote has changed much other than No Deal will almost certainly not happen this month but if there is a short extension and we don't get our shit together (no indication that we will so far) then it is very much the default option again
Almost all the 65 are ERG members (maybe a handful at most aren't), the five who abstained I'm not so sure about. A long extension is nigh on a certainty if the ERG don't fall into line as it's what the EU will likely ask for - it could also be on very punitive terms, there will only really be a short extension if the deal is passed.

If the 20 or so really vehemently opposed brexiteers do vote against the deal they are effectively voting for a long extension with European elections and the very probable risk of no brexit at all. If they prefer that to May's deal then you can see their logic.

There is a possibility that if it isn't passed and a very long and financially punitive extension after European elections is offered, the only one the EU may give, then she'll attempt to bring it back a fourth time after the summit. If it is then apparent it would almost certainly succeed, although it would have to be shown to be highly probable for it to be allowed - perhaps in public statements of support from those 20, then this could be a real possibility.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Surprised » 15 Mar 2019, 15:18

eastcentral1 wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 12:15
Surprised wrote:I can't see May's deal getting through at the 3rd attention for 2:main reasons:

1 The Brexiteers have said it is worse than staying in and it's unchanged from when they first voted. Why would they now support it when if they don't they get no deal or an extension both of which they claim is better than May's deal

2. If Remainers think the EU has a good chance of agreeing an extension they will reject May's deal again.
what has changed is that the choice now is between May's deal or a long extension. No deal is gone. Parliament will pass a bill of it has to, and the EU is not going to push the UK off the proverbial cliff.
My point is that they claim an extension is better than her deal according to the brexiteers so why would they vote for her deal.?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by David Luiz Is A Hero » 15 Mar 2019, 16:19

liquidfootball2 wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 15:04
David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 14:07

It wouldn't be the first time...

I honestly don't think the vote has changed much other than No Deal will almost certainly not happen this month but if there is a short extension and we don't get our shit together (no indication that we will so far) then it is very much the default option again
Almost all the 65 are ERG members (maybe a handful at most aren't), the five who abstained I'm not so sure about. A long extension is nigh on a certainty if the ERG don't fall into line as it's what the EU will likely ask for - it could also be on very punitive terms, there will only really be a short extension if the deal is passed.

If the 20 or so really vehemently opposed brexiteers do vote against the deal they are effectively voting for a long extension with European elections and the very probable risk of no brexit at all. If they prefer that to May's deal then you can see their logic.

There is a possibility that if it isn't passed and a very long and financially punitive extension after European elections is offered, the only one the EU may give, then she'll attempt to bring it back a fourth time after the summit. If it is then apparent it would almost certainly succeed, although it would have to be shown to be highly probable for it to be allowed - perhaps in public statements of support from those 20, then this could be a real possibility.
I assume you meant to quote my earlier comment?

https://www.conservativehome.com/parlia ... -deal.html

This suggest 75 Tories voted against, 65 would need to change their mind assuming the DUP switch and 11 of the 75 are remainers so it wouldn't be enough to vote the deal through. Would all depend on those abstainers and May would have ensure she didn't leak any centrists by leaning towards the ERG.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 15 Mar 2019, 16:27

Is May's better option to go towards a softer Brexit and win enough Labour MPs (enough to counter even more lost tories?)??

Or just threaten that to get ERG/DUP etc on board....

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by bluenosey » 15 Mar 2019, 16:35

murf wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:27
Is May's better option to go towards a softer Brexit and win enough Labour MPs (enough to counter even more lost tories?)??

Or just threaten that to get ERG/DUP etc on board....
The soft option means staying in the Customs Union though. Not what most leavers voted for, I would have thought.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by David Luiz Is A Hero » 15 Mar 2019, 16:38

murf wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:27
Is May's better option to go towards a softer Brexit and win enough Labour MPs (enough to counter even more lost tories?)??

Or just threaten that to get ERG/DUP etc on board....
I think so, as above I'm not sure the numbers are there for the threat to work, would be easier to siphon off 100 Labour MPs from Leave voting seats in my opinion by going softer.

As BN says, whether that fits the spirit of the vote is entirely up for debate as no one specified anything about leaving the Customs union in advance and is utterly pointless as we have the majority of the same rules and no say whatsoever.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 15 Mar 2019, 16:44

I feel quite bereft, not having a parliamentary vote to look forward to this evening :?

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 15 Mar 2019, 16:45

bluenosey wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:35
murf wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:27
Is May's better option to go towards a softer Brexit and win enough Labour MPs (enough to counter even more lost tories?)??

Or just threaten that to get ERG/DUP etc on board....
The soft option means staying in the Customs Union though. Not what most leavers voted for, I would have thought.
Labour say that is what it means, but is there a softish non customs union that could work? Probably not but going for it could scare Mogg and co into line!

Yes, most Brexit voters would vote against it but what they want doesn't exactly seem to be a big concern of the Labour party...

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Zimmerman » 15 Mar 2019, 16:54

Why wouldn’t we/they want to stay in the CU?

As mentioned above, there was no stipulation about what was expected of Brexit in this regard.

How many of us even understand what the CU is?

Securing our border
Less migrants
Less refugees (I know the two aren’t linked... but a lot of the electorate don’t)
No laws from Brussels
Stop paying ‘them’ money

That was the crux of most of the leave vote wasn’t it? I bet not many had any views on the CU at all (and still don’t).

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Surprised » 15 Mar 2019, 17:11

Billy Whiz wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:44
I feel quite bereft, not having a parliamentary vote to look forward to this evening :?
You have Comic Relief which is much the same.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 17:17

Surprised wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 17:11
Billy Whiz wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:44
I feel quite bereft, not having a parliamentary vote to look forward to this evening :?
You have Comic Relief which is much the same.
As if that will be anywhere near as entertaining as 640ish of the most boring people on the country :lol:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by eastcentral1 » 15 Mar 2019, 17:18

murf wrote:
bluenosey wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:35
murf wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:27
Is May's better option to go towards a softer Brexit and win enough Labour MPs (enough to counter even more lost tories?)??

Or just threaten that to get ERG/DUP etc on board....
The soft option means staying in the Customs Union though. Not what most leavers voted for, I would have thought.
Labour say that is what it means, but is there a softish non customs union that could work? Probably not but going for it could scare Mogg and co into line!

Yes, most Brexit voters would vote against it but what they want doesn't exactly seem to be a big concern of the Labour party...
Ex post facto analysis. People voted to leave the EU. You can leave the EU and stay in the Customs Union. I don't think MPs should be criticised for not going around and taking a straw poll of what flavour of leaving the EU is now more popular. MPs should now take us out of the EU in the way they think is best. These issues are too technical to be delegated.

And while we're on the topic, does anyone still think we'd be better off by ditching all the trade deals the EU has negotiated (internal as well as many, many with third countries such as Japan and Canada), starting again, and doing our own? I think the last 2 years has pretty much answered that one.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Zimmerman » 15 Mar 2019, 17:50

Ermmmm I think you’ll find we’ve just signed a trade deal with Fiji and Papa New Guinea #takingbackcontrol in your face remoaners 🤣

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 17:57

Awesome.

As to the CU line above: that means being a rule taker, not maker, so unpalatable to all bar the "we will deliver Breakfast" brigade.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 15 Mar 2019, 18:08

But the least bad option when nothing else will stick, and forms a base camp for those wishing to make a more definitive break and for those who would want to rejoin in time.

If May’s deal doesn’t get through MV3/MV4 then it will be long extension time and alternative ways forward will have to be explored.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 18:11

I could argue that Leavers will think it worse than Remaining, but as a Remainer having as little input from our Fwits could well sway me :lol:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 15 Mar 2019, 18:37

blahblah wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:11
I could argue that Leavers will think it worse than Remaining, but as a Remainer having as little input from our Fwits could well sway me :lol:
The majority of MPs are in the “pragmatic Remainer” camp. CU/CM2/Norway/BINO is less divisive than referendum or scrap it completely.

Let’s Go, BINO ;)

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 18:44

forestfan wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:37
blahblah wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:11
I could argue that Leavers will think it worse than Remaining, but as a Remainer having as little input from our Fwits could well sway me :lol:
The majority of MPs are in the “pragmatic Remainer” camp. CU/CM2/Norway/BINO is less divisive than referendum or scrap it completely.

Let’s Go, BINO ;)

House :lol:

BOGOFF if I know what BINO is :lol: :lol: :lol:

I can't watch the News because of this garbage, as I am still on my "it wont happen" sofa..... Do you remember my "stupid people pretending they are intelligent" issue? (Admittedly I do try to watch now and again to get my Martine\Rebecca fix :lol: )

What gets me is that the devil isn't in the detail, it is the really high level implausibility of anything other than Remain or No Deal.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by liquidfootball2 » 15 Mar 2019, 18:51

David Luiz Is A Hero wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 16:19
liquidfootball2 wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 15:04

Almost all the 65 are ERG members (maybe a handful at most aren't), the five who abstained I'm not so sure about. A long extension is nigh on a certainty if the ERG don't fall into line as it's what the EU will likely ask for - it could also be on very punitive terms, there will only really be a short extension if the deal is passed.

If the 20 or so really vehemently opposed brexiteers do vote against the deal they are effectively voting for a long extension with European elections and the very probable risk of no brexit at all. If they prefer that to May's deal then you can see their logic.

There is a possibility that if it isn't passed and a very long and financially punitive extension after European elections is offered, the only one the EU may give, then she'll attempt to bring it back a fourth time after the summit. If it is then apparent it would almost certainly succeed, although it would have to be shown to be highly probable for it to be allowed - perhaps in public statements of support from those 20, then this could be a real possibility.
I assume you meant to quote my earlier comment?

https://www.conservativehome.com/parlia ... -deal.html

This suggest 75 Tories voted against, 65 would need to change their mind assuming the DUP switch and 11 of the 75 are remainers so it wouldn't be enough to vote the deal through. Would all depend on those abstainers and May would have ensure she didn't leak any centrists by leaning towards the ERG.
Yes 'David Luiz' you are correct with your figures, I actually took mine from a bar chart and counted six rows of ten (plus half a row of five) rather than seven rows of ten plus the five, so 75 Conservatives voted against it with five further abstentions.

I would have thought a far better chance of success with virtually all the 80 (75 plus 5 abstainers) might be had after the summit, especially if an extension until December 2020 conditional on extraordinarily punitive terms, accompanied by an obligation to hold European parliament elections is the alternative.

Prior to the summit there is far less chance, as a good proportion of the twenty or so ERG members most vehement in their opposition seem to occupy some sort of fantasy land, it is only there where some new purer 'truer' brexit deal, addressing virtually all their concerns, will emerge.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by forestfan » 15 Mar 2019, 18:53

blahblah wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:44
forestfan wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:37
blahblah wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:11
I could argue that Leavers will think it worse than Remaining, but as a Remainer having as little input from our Fwits could well sway me :lol:
The majority of MPs are in the “pragmatic Remainer” camp. CU/CM2/Norway/BINO is less divisive than referendum or scrap it completely.

Let’s Go, BINO ;)

House :lol:

BOGOFF if I know what BINO is :lol: :lol: :lol:
Brexit In Name Only :wink:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by eastcentral1 » 15 Mar 2019, 18:59

blahblah wrote:Awesome.

As to the CU line above: that means being a rule taker, not maker, so unpalatable to all bar the "we will deliver Breakfast" brigade.
If they wanted Brexit to definitely rule out being in the EEA or Customs Union they should have said so on the ballot. It's not like this should have been a surprise, there were/are non-EU countries in this position.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 19:09

eastcentral1 wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 18:59
blahblah wrote:Awesome.

As to the CU line above: that means being a rule taker, not maker, so unpalatable to all bar the "we will deliver Breakfast" brigade.
If they wanted Brexit to definitely rule out being in the EEA or Customs Union they should have said so on the ballot. It's not like this should have been a surprise, there were/are non-EU countries in this position.
That is part of the rationale\justification for 2nd Ref: those people didn't vote for No Deal...

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Spinynorman » 15 Mar 2019, 21:00

Remain during the week and just leave at weekends? Sooner it was the other way around myself. :?

https://newsthump.com/2019/03/15/theres ... Phb5EfjIhg

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 15 Mar 2019, 22:29

Zimmerman wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 17:50
Ermmmm I think you’ll find we’ve just signed a trade deal with Fiji and Papa New Guinea #takingbackcontrol in your face remoaners 🤣
Sorry to be pedantic, but we can't have "just signed a trade deal" with anyone - we're still in the EU

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 22:36

Billy Whiz wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 22:29
Zimmerman wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 17:50
Ermmmm I think you’ll find we’ve just signed a trade deal with Fiji and Papa New Guinea #takingbackcontrol in your face remoaners 🤣
Sorry to be pedantic, but we can't have "just signed a trade deal" with anyone - we're still in the EU
Pedant revenge, lol

We can sign now for it to come into effect when\if out of the CU?

Well apart from DD trying to negotiate one with Belgium, or whoever it was who are in the EU :lol:

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 15 Mar 2019, 22:50

Why don't all the English and Welsh counties just unilaterally break away from the UK and then reform under a new banner of Albion (the welsh may dispute this name. Brittania? Or they could just stay with their celtic and EU cousins?) who have total self control. Scots and NI issues all sorted and a free Brexit to boot!

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 22:53

murf wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 22:50
Why don't all the English and Welsh counties just unilaterally break away from the UK and then reform under a new banner of Albion (the welsh may dispute this name. Brittania? Or they could just stay with their celtic and EU cousins?) who have total self control. Scots and NI issues all sorted and a free Brexit to boot!
Erm Anglia, shirley?

I'm sure there were similar Yorks and Cornwall ideas when the Scots (Caledonians?) were voting and being scared by the uncertainty of being cut adrift from those wise people in Westminster.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by Billy Whiz » 15 Mar 2019, 22:56

BTW, we've now passed 6,000 posts on this thread (it was around 4pm to be precise) - the longest thread in the rich and diverse history of fiso

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by murf » 15 Mar 2019, 22:59

Billy Whiz wrote:BTW, we've now passed 6,000 posts on this thread (it was around 4pm to be precise) - easily the longest thread in the rich and diverse history of fiso
My posts wish to break away and form their own thread. Happy to do it on a no deal basis. Any deal must include sticky status and the right to call it what we want and kick out any unwanted immigrant posts from any of eu lot.

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Re: EU post referendum discussion [see page 136, T&Cs apply with zero tolerance]

Post by blahblah » 15 Mar 2019, 23:06

murf wrote:
15 Mar 2019, 22:59
Billy Whiz wrote:BTW, we've now passed 6,000 posts on this thread (it was around 4pm to be precise) - easily the longest thread in the rich and diverse history of fiso
My posts wish to break away and form their own thread. Happy to do it on a no deal basis. Any deal must include sticky status and the right to call it what we want and kick out any unwanted immigrant posts from any of eu lot.
For some reason I laughed at "sticky" :mrgreen:

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